House of the Dragon - Game Over!

[mastina]

@Mastina
You think people are smart enough to realize it was a planned buss?

I mean if they were thinking critically enough to realize that it is mathematically impossible for the wagon to not have scum on it, sure.

I've not the faith in them to connect the dots required.

[mastina]

You know what’s actually kind of bad as I look at the votes? This one: 1736. DW had been pushed to the brink, and Rhaenyra (after voting for DW as the 4th voter) moves away from them to start a vanity wagon on VPB. The part that’s curious though is that I don’t know that if you absolutely think DW is going down there, that you move away, making you look so transparently bad (I was expressing skepticism and could have hammered, and there were several well explained reads going against DW there).

You literally point out what makes Rhaenyra's slot town there and discard the implication from it.

Dwlee was bussed--period. It's indisputable because it's mathematically impossible for them to have not been bussed. For every name off the wagon that is town (which is most or all), you need to add to the total of scum on the Dwlee wagon.

There are genuinely 3-4 scum on the Dwlee wagon.

Ergo, scum didn't just bus Dwlee. They

committed

to bussing Dwlee. If Dwlee was not a committed bus, then Dwlee wouldn't have 3-4 scum on their wagon, now, would they?

So then the question follows:
If Dwlee was a committed bus--which they were--then why would Rhaenyra with a team committed to the bus hop OFF of Dwlee and thus lose any possible towncred for having been a part of the wagon?

She wouldn't.

Rhaenyra, and by extent Johnny, is town.

[Enchant]

So then the question follows:
If Dwlee was a committed bus--which they were--then why would Rhaenyra with a team committed to the bus hop OFF of Dwlee and thus lose any possible towncred for having been a part of the wagon?

She wouldn't.

Rhaenyra, and by extent Johnny, is town.

But hoping off doesn't mean losing towncred.

It's like arguing hoping on last moment gives you any.

[mastina]

Does anybody think I’m missing anything?

For the record, no, your scenario 2 is indeed better than the scenario 1.

Can anyone make a Johnny town case that isn't entirely reliant on "Rhaenyra posted a lot of nonsense quickly"?

Yeah, Rhaenyra is Yume, and Yume has a night and day difference between her towngame and her scumgame--literally anyone who has played with Yume, ever, knows that this is her towngame.

I in particular have a near-100% read accuracy on her, and simply put: Yume cannot fake being town across every metric for an extended period of time. She can fake it short-term, but not long-term.

The argument of "but Yume could have been specifically been playing in a way specifically to try and pocket mastina specifically and perfectly pulled this off" is the only counterargument to that, and I don't think I need to point out how absolute bullshit that argument is.
No, Yume does not try to pocket me as scum--I literally just played a game with Yume as scum and she made no attempt to pocket me there.
No, even if Yume did try it, she would not succeed. Yume has tried to fake being her town self before and there were imperfections in it, imperfections that are obvious when viewed in the lens of the whole.
No, Yume is not some mastermind of a scum player capable of perfectly replicating her townplay in order to get a townread from a single player, but even if she were?

No, that is not a winning strategy, because becoming a townread of mine is something she has personal experience in knowing will not save her, will not protect her, because she knows that

I don't have enough influence to save her slot

. She has always argued that I should have more influence than I do. She has always argued that I should be listened to more than I am. But the fact remains that I am NOT listened to, I am NOT a voice who can influence the entire game.

So Yume getting a townread from me is not something that would actually be a viable scum strategy.

Plus, personality-wise, a scum-Yume never does what she does here. If Rhaenyra were scum, then she wouldn't have run afoul of the posting restriction in the first place. A scum Rhaenyra is capable of a surprisingly large amount of restraint. She is more calculating than people give her credit for. She is strategic and arguably precise with her approach. Running into the post limit and then getting replaced for voting too quickly is not a nai action; it is an action that demonstrates Rhaenyra wasn't showing control, Rhaenyra wasn't showing restraint, Rhaenyra wasn't being conscientious of her positioning, and that makes her town, because a scum Rhaenyra is all of those things.

[mastina]

But hoping off doesn't mean losing towncred.

No, hopping off does lose towncred.

If you hop onto a scum wagon without pushing (regardless of position), then you get almost no towncred. No reasoning = no proof the read is sincere.
If you hop onto a scum wagon without pushing then hop off (regardless of position), then you get no towncred. Hopping off = looks like it was an attempt to save the scumbuddy, that the arguments you were making weren't actually genuine, that you were distancing without bussing.

The only towncred to be had from hopping onto a scum wagon is if you pushed the wagon and then never left, committing to it.

Ergo, Rhaenyra hopping off means that a scum-Rhaenyra loses any and all credit behind her push on Dwlee--and therefore a scum-Rhaenyra would not have actually hopped off.

[Enchant]

I think mastina attacked me with some sort of weapon

My brain hurts

[mastina]

I myself yesterday was kind of musing in my head about going over all the people who have received votes for king and thinking that there has to be at least one scum in that pool.

Coronation Vote - Day One

VP Baltar [7]:

Datisi, Lukewarm, Andresvmb, GuiltyLion, Dannflor, Junkochan, Charloux

GuiltyLion [4]:

thestatusquo,

Dwlee99

, PenguinPower, VP Baltar

I wonder who that could be???

(Dwlee the literal flipped scum voted for GuiltyLion as King. Literal flipped scum. Voted for GuiltyLion. As King. And you're not considering that maybe, just

maybe

, the scum in the pool could be, oh, I dunno...who the literal flipped scum voted for.)

[Enchant]

Oh heah

Mafia desided to bus dwlee and was like "let's dwlee also vote for kinging yet another teammate"

[mastina]

Coronation Vote - Day One

Dwlee99 [1]:

VP Baltar

Coronation Vote - Day One

GuiltyLion [5]:

Dannflor, thestatusquo, Dwlee99, PenguinPower, Junkochan

(Dwlee kept their vote on GuiltyLion for King until the very last vc, and GL never had fewer than 3 votes for being King.)

I wonder who the scum candidate for King could be???

[mastina]

Oh heah
Mafia desided to bus dwlee and was like "let's dwlee also vote for kinging yet another teammate"

That's not how chronology works and you fucking know it.

Mafia didn't decide to bus Dwlee and then have Dwlee vote for Kinging another teammate.

Mafia tried to King a teammate, and when that failed, decided to bus Dwlee to prop up said teammate.

Which you may note is what is actually supported by the chronology of the game.

[mastina]

tinfoil theory of VPB scum.

It ain't tinfoil; at least one of VP Baltar and GuiltyLion is basically guaranteed to be scum.

But I'm well aware of the impossibility of convincing y'all of that today.

When the players VP Baltar and GL push continue to flip town one after another (starting with Johnny today who will in fact flip town), it'll only be a matter of time before you realize that maybe, just

maybe

, I'm not fucking wrong about them being scum.

It's just that there's not a chance in hell of me convincing you today.

[Enchant]

Oh heah
Mafia desided to bus dwlee and was like "let's dwlee also vote for kinging yet another teammate"

That's not how chronology works and you fucking know it.

Mafia didn't decide to bus Dwlee and then have Dwlee vote for Kinging another teammate.

Mafia tried to King a teammate, and when that failed, decided to bus Dwlee to prop up said teammate.

Which you may note is what is actually supported by the chronology of the game.

I forgot whole d1 sorry

[mastina]

Not gonna lie, Dann is reminding me so much of scum!gamma from invictus...

(It's because Dann is scum.)

[mastina]

ive been feeling that if council pt has been all town. The scum must be trying to break the trust between it. The worst offenders of accusing and causing paranoia are my townreads in council. So like.....is this an actual scum ploy? The people in day who are doing are like GL/VPB etc.

As a matter of fact, yes!

GL and VP Baltar are scum. They've been upset about the council from the very moment neither of them were on it--because they were banking on Shea selecting at least one of them if not both to be on it. The way they had Shea as a top townread and voted him for King, then after the council choices were made started turning against him, demonstrates precisely why they are scum; their stances pre-King and post-King have a night/day divide because of the shift in strategy required.

I lowkey think that the kills are because they wanted Shea to replace the dead with them.

Remember how Shea said on D1 that he was between Lukewarm and GL for a position? He selected Lukewarm over GL for it--and then Lukewarm died. Freeing up the position that on D1 Shea had as being between Lukewarm and GL.
And then that

very same position

was killed N2, when held by MathBlade.

Mesthinks that maybe, just maybe, scum want GL to be in the Master of Whispers position!

[Datisi]

you do know that shea cannot add new people onto the council right now, right?

[Enchant]

Idk if i was scum, i would refuse getting tracker and aim at doctor instead.

[Enchant]

Wait i am town and i still don't want tracker

[mastina]

i will accept the longer name whatever that may be

Andante2.0.

VOTE: furtive

Good vote.

I prefer Dann over furtive, but would happily join you there.

[mastina]

you do know that shea cannot add new people onto the council right now, right?

Is that an actual rule?

I don't see it listed as one.

[Datisi]

In the event of the death of a small council member, the following procedure will be followed:

Prince of Dragonstone - The King chooses a new heir.

Lord Commander of the Kingsguard - The Kingsguard elect a new Lord Commander from amongst their ranks

Any other Small Council Member - the King may give their duties to another member of the small council - no member of the small council may hold more than two roles at a time.

[mastina]

I think Dwlee knew they were going down on D2 because they almost went down on D1, obviously, but I don't think that means scum planned to bus them at the start of the game. I would look for people who artificially increased in confidence on Dwlee from D1 to D2

Wrong place to start--the actual place to start is the moment the King was selected.

I guarantee you of the nine voters for Dwlee the moment Shea became King, less than 4 gave suspicion on Dwlee prior.

[mastina]

Any other Small Council Member - the King may give their duties to another member of the small council - no member of the small council may hold more than two roles at a time.

[/quote]MAY give--where does it say REQUIRED to give?

Did nobody bother to ask if Shea can appoint an outside name?

[mastina]

Any other Small Council Member - the King may give their duties to another member of the small council - no member of the small council may hold more than two roles at a time.

MAY give--where does it say REQUIRED to give?

Did nobody bother to ask if Shea can appoint an outside name?

Like, wording is important.

The difference between 'may' and 'must' is important.
The difference between 'can' and 'required' is not insignificant.

[mastina]

i find it weird that seemingly no consistent counterwagon is happening here again, but uh.

It's

almost

like the town has had no cohesion whereas the scum have been unified, and thus the things happening have largely been at the behest of the scum!

[Enchant]

It means King can leave position open.