Open 869 | Fight for the Winter Court [Game Over!]

[Chara]

Gate

catboi
skitter30
Isis

Wall

Faker
Chara
demona

Keep

absinthe
Tempest
Coral

This is unrelated to the points I'm currently working on making, but I saw it while reading and thought it was interesting how close this got to the final groupings.

i was going to say these aren't close at all, but the Keep is exactly our current Gate config after all, hahaha.

[Coral]

To be clear, I don't mean this to be an alignment indicative point. One could make the case, but I think it'd be pretty shaky. I meant it in more of a "huh, that's neat" way

[Chara]

i'm going to let the more logically-minded (good at mafia) players handle the solve order. absolutely none of my current thoughts have to do with team possibilities.

[Coral]

My only current thought on solve order is being tempted to want to do the Gate first. We lose fewer town voices due to Tempest staying, and at this current time I think my voice will mostly be used to run around in circles chanting about how scum are Chara/catboi and why. Which I don't really need to be here for, you all can just promise to periodically pretend that I've entered the thread and said something to that effect.

That could obviously change, I might change my mind at some point on who I think is scum and actually be doing a useful amount of active sorting. But it's where I imagine this heading based on current trajectory.

The other benefit is that it confirms one of the swappers as scum. While it doesn't solve the Keep immediately, I think it is useful information for helping to support a solve there, and to give people a narrower field of possibilities for what the scumteam was trying to accomplish with the swap. Leaning heavily myself towards it being a S/T swap due to a 0-1-2, obviously.

[Isis]

a way to make me more confident i can read her.

I was trying to play in Daniel's lion den and scream "look I am playing in Daniel's lion den" as a funnee way to clear myself that also lets me with one of my favorite players. You're one of the ppl I wanted to know about the lion den, it's reasonable to forget reading me correctly before but it's predictive whether you forgot.

This bit is written like an accusation but I'm not sure I get how wanting you to feel confident is a scum!Isis thing can you expound any?

[Isis]

i am already at work, so playing mafia is technically less work.

a lot of it is town demona, if we were in Wall with Coral or something i'd be at a much lower confidence level, but in that scenario i think scum Isis's motivation would be to get me to vote with her rather than setting up a 1v1 between me and her.

i'd also like to point out that between Isis and demona at the wall vs. the configuration at the gate, does scum Chara choose to duke it out against Isis?

You love me

[Chara]

i think if you want us to be in a game together, saying i know how to read you is a good way to get there. but i do believe you'd do the same thing as town because town Isis also wants Chara to read her right (and be in a game with her!) so that isn't why i think you're scum, just an idea about what i thought scum Isis was doing there.

[Faker]

I'm not voting until at least Day 5 but I'm increasingly convinced that cat just swung and completely struck out, rather than this being any kind of galaxy brain townplay.

[Chara]

You love me

i do love you!

[Isis]

"defensive" wouldn't really be a word that comes to mind to describe Isis's play although I see your point about 236 I guess, will review it at some point. Had lingering suspicion of Isis for gut reasons but with the clarity of distributions things are coming into focus more so not as sure.

i'm using defensive to mean cautious, not to mean defending herself. like setting up defenses around oneself, not showing weak points or taking risks.

[Faker]

a way to make me more confident i can read her.

I was trying to play in Daniel's lion den and scream "look I am playing in Daniel's lion den" as a funnee way to clear myself that also lets me with one of my favorite players.

This was supposed to work how?

Every game is a lion's den and Wall is the highest EV game for scum. You also tried to get me to come to your game at one point.

[Coral]

I'm not voting until at least Day 5 but I'm increasingly convinced that cat just swung and completely struck out, rather than this being any kind of galaxy brain townplay.

I agree, if it's worth anything. Even ignoring my prior reads as best as I can.

[Faker]

Why? I think my perspective is unique. I'd like to hear how to get the same answer a different way, if that's the case.

[Faker]

ffery when you're around I'd love to hear your thoughts on my alignment now, and especially rehash your thought process on me in the very earlygame.

[absinthe]

Does Tempest not leave after the Gate is solved? That's a huge improvement over the original setup.

I was hilariously wrong about Coral yesterday. And I don't plan to vote anytime soon.

Faker -- I believe you know in your bones that me getting and keeping a townread on you is not a slam dunk

catboi -- you wouldn't move me out of the keep two games straight would you?

skitter -- I'm trying to decide which makes more sense. That you were moved out of the Gate because of your alignment or because of your reads.

[Isis]

Why? I think my perspective is unique. I'd like to hear how to get the same answer a different way, if that's the case.

a way to make me more confident i can read her.

I was trying to play in Daniel's lion den and scream "look I am playing in Daniel's lion den" as a funnee way to clear myself that also lets me with one of my favorite players.

This was supposed to work how?

Every game is a lion's den and Wall is the highest EV game for scum. You also tried to get me to come to your game at one point.

The quoted post is when I committed to playing with Chara, not which minigame, it was earlier.
I tried to get you to play with me in addition to Chara, not instead of, I'm not following that part.

I think mostly everyone else in the game can read me an average amount

[Faker]

Chara, do you mind explaining

does anyone...

want

to go to Gate?

I do now that it sounds very available since 99.9 repeating percent of my interest is with who I go with

i guess i don’t really understand why you wouldn’t want to come to wall with me if you’re the most sure that i am town and the wall would therefore be more or less solved from your perspective without one of us being switched

but also as i said to catboi earlier i get that i am not always easy to play with and such and if your interest is solely who you go with yeah i get it

i dunno how, like, qualified i would be to sort you/chara but i feel like it would make sense to come to wall from your perspective outside of the people aspect yeah

I mean you're probably town and if I go with you and Chara to wall and scum don't have to add scum to the wall Chara is probably scum. But I think the game's EV as a whole is higher if I get to read Chara, in or out of a context of reevaluating your slot although the benefit is probably greater out?

The problem with math based on reads so far is that it's all double downs. If consensus reads are good right now those aren't needed. Chemistry is always good, even if consensus reads are warped

i think this has cemented it for me. i want to go to the Gate with you, Isis, but i should probably care about who goes there with us. and if that isn't possible, Isis/Chara/demona is a lovely arrangement at the Keep and the fringe benefits of both of us being at the Gate instead (never thought i would be saying that,

really

) may be negligible enough it doesn't really matter.

in context of today's opening post? The quote this is responding to, 939, suggests she'd townread demona over you in Wall.

Daystart post lines up pretty well with its Day 1 statements overall.

[Faker]

Faker -- I believe you know in your bones that me getting and keeping a townread on you is not a slam dunk

And I've been waiting to eat you alive for almost two years precisely because you think that!

[Coral]

Why? I think my perspective is unique. I'd like to hear how to get the same answer a different way, if that's the case.

I just don't buy the approach as real. It feels like he's going through the motions but his heart isn't in it. I don't believe 1365, that's a post made to look like he has town thought, not a real one.

I think the scum team (if I'm correct) is closer to losing than winning here, and I think the response to Chara in 1376 felt like reorienting himself slightly in order to angle better towards supporting a teammate rather than a natural response -- I don't think he feels it important to make that response live as town while there's a lot of posts flying around that are interesting and thoughts to share. Why pick that one out just to waffle about it?

1384 is admittedly coloured by knowing absinthe is scum, but this is just pushing the party line of what the scum team hoped the town reaction to that spiel would be.

The biggest issue for me though is that he seems largely unsure if he wants to full commit to calling you scum or not. He dances around it for a bit, then commits, but even then I just don't buy it? He'll probably argue that he was town baiting a reaction in order to sort, but I don't believe that. He says he's "likely going to vote soon" in 1428 and there is absolutely no chance that is genuine. 1460 just... really doesn't hit the mark.

[Isis]

I prefer to be the voter, especially with what I've seen on the table.

Let me be clear: I will get you if you are scum, and I will make sure you lose the game as a bonus.

I have 0 intimidation level from this

Catboi's Own Tempo ability prevented the effects of Faker's Intimidate!

[Chara]

Chara, do you mind explaining

does anyone...

want

to go to Gate?

I do now that it sounds very available since 99.9 repeating percent of my interest is with who I go with

i guess i don’t really understand why you wouldn’t want to come to wall with me if you’re the most sure that i am town and the wall would therefore be more or less solved from your perspective without one of us being switched

but also as i said to catboi earlier i get that i am not always easy to play with and such and if your interest is solely who you go with yeah i get it

i dunno how, like, qualified i would be to sort you/chara but i feel like it would make sense to come to wall from your perspective outside of the people aspect yeah

I mean you're probably town and if I go with you and Chara to wall and scum don't have to add scum to the wall Chara is probably scum. But I think the game's EV as a whole is higher if I get to read Chara, in or out of a context of reevaluating your slot although the benefit is probably greater out?

The problem with math based on reads so far is that it's all double downs. If consensus reads are good right now those aren't needed. Chemistry is always good, even if consensus reads are warped

i think this has cemented it for me. i want to go to the Gate with you, Isis, but i should probably care about who goes there with us. and if that isn't possible, Isis/Chara/demona is a lovely arrangement at the Keep and the fringe benefits of both of us being at the Gate instead (never thought i would be saying that,

really

) may be negligible enough it doesn't really matter.

in context of today's opening post? The quote this is responding to, 939, suggests she'd townread demona over you in Wall.

Daystart post lines up pretty well with its Day 1 statements overall.

i'm not sure what to explain, could you tell me what isn't lining up for you so i know what to address? i can explain why i liked the idea of going to the gate, but i don't know what that has to do with my opener.

[Coral]

Sorry, 1379 about Chara, not 1376

[Faker]

1365 is worth explication IMO. 1379/1384 don't strike me as very AI and are probably the towniest posts of the day.

1460 is still comical.

[absinthe]

ffery when you're around I'd love to hear your thoughts on my alignment now, and especially rehash your thought process on me in the very earlygame.

My thoughts are in flux and I'm mentally in solve-keep-like-I'm-part-of-it land. Working on that.

What about my thought process in the very early game? Are you referring to 445?

[Coral]

Like, look at the timestamps around that. Posts are flying through faster than anyone could respond to everything. What makes him pick that post out to respond to, just to say nearly nothing?