Open 870 | White Flag Mountainous | Postgame

[petapan]

Vote Count 1.04

Kings Peak
Duchesne County, Utah
Elevation: 4,123 meters

NorwegianboyEE (4):

Shirou, Gamma Emerald, Aristeia, Una

Aristeia (3):

Klick, NorwegianboyEE, Aubrey

Una (1):

Toto

Klick (1):

Lucian

Shirou (1):

TheGoldenParadox

Not Voting (3):

BlueBloodedToffee, giuseppina, SirCakez

With 13 alive, it's 7 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 1 is January 21 at 10:00 AM EST.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2023-01-21 10:00:00)

[Aristeia]

how likely does anyone think it is that mafias would bus day one of this setup?

i think it depends on the situation.

which one would you like to talk about?

[giuseppina]

how likely does anyone think it is that mafias would bus day one of this setup?

i think it depends on the situation.

which one would you like to talk about?

(i was more thinking about mafias trying to protect eachother day one when i said that and potential examples i saw of that because bussing seems somewhat unlikely to me outside of the possibility that shirou is bussing norwegianboyee but confidence would have to be high for the team as a whole that flipping norwegianboyee would be a free win for that to be the case)

[Aristeia]

mmm i think in that scenario it would be like a shirou-una-nor team and he would have to hope it wins but i dont think people let him live at elo so it feels suboptimal to do it

[Aristeia]

this setup is deceptively fast in terms of how it plays so i think bussing is more viable as a strategy than most take it on surface level.

[giuseppina]

mmm i think in that scenario it would be like a shirou-una-nor team and he would have to hope it wins but i dont think people let him live at elo so it feels suboptimal to do it

oh hm

i do not think it would be una as the third because una would have to survive four more eliminations and she was the leading wagon at the time shirou started the norwegianboyee push

also let’s sacrifice a teammate for free doesn’t seem like the sort of plan una would be super inclined to sign off on but maybe i am incorrect about that

[Aristeia]

mmm i think in that scenario it would be like a shirou-una-nor team and he would have to hope it wins but i dont think people let him live at elo so it feels suboptimal to do it

oh hm

i do not think it would be una as the third because una would have to survive four more eliminations and she was the leading wagon at the time shirou started the norwegianboyee push

also let’s sacrifice a teammate for free doesn’t seem like the sort of plan una would be super inclined to sign off on but maybe i am incorrect about that

you are comparing to overall odds. i think the correct comparison is to what happens if you do nothing

[giuseppina]

mmm i think in that scenario it would be like a shirou-una-nor team and he would have to hope it wins but i dont think people let him live at elo so it feels suboptimal to do it

oh hm

i do not think it would be una as the third because una would have to survive four more eliminations and she was the leading wagon at the time shirou started the norwegianboyee push

also let’s sacrifice a teammate for free doesn’t seem like the sort of plan una would be super inclined to sign off on but maybe i am incorrect about that

you are comparing to overall odds. i think the correct comparison is to what happens if you do nothing

? wouldn’t shirou pushes a random non-partner be the play if una is the third? rather than ‘do nothing’ or pushing norwegianboyee?

i think the third would have to be someone who a) thought it would be funny and b) also thought they had at least a pretty decent chance of surviving

but also, probably should not be considering this possibility due to it being somewhat unlikely

[Aristeia]

thinking about it more they do seem like such good friends maybe they would just not do a bus because it doesnt seem fun.

[Aristeia]

well shirou cant claim to have a 100% secret meta read on random third target

[SirCakez]

my methodologies have changed i don't overthink shit like that anymore

Valid tho

Have you considered that we will all also be annoying about it if you do not reveal who your scumread is?

what if people left me alone haha wouldn't that be funny

[SirCakez]

WAIT LMAO I LOOKED AT THE VC
VOTE: aristeia
My secret scumread is popular let's fucking go

[SirCakez]

is klick bussing? find out next week

[Aristeia]

i think incentive wise it doesnt make sense for shirou to bus norw here because the only reason to really do it would be to change the trajectory of the game which was moving towards flipping una.

[giuseppina]

thinking about it more they do seem like such good friends maybe they would just not do a bus because it doesnt seem fun.

yeah seems kinda unlikely and suboptimal yeah

though i do wonder if friendship between mafias makes bussing more or less likely

[Aristeia]

thinking about it more they do seem like such good friends maybe they would just not do a bus because it doesnt seem fun.

yeah seems kinda unlikely and suboptimal yeah

though i do wonder if friendship between mafias makes bussing more or less likely

mmm i think it makes the bus look better but its still icky.

i generally dont enjoy bussing my friends but im not shirou.

[Una]

I'd bus someone for free but I'm not sure I would bus a player like Norwee who would be very upset about it and give off bad associatives

[Aristeia]

bus drivers dont pick their routes though it is usually selected for them.

[giuseppina]

WAIT LMAO I LOOKED AT THE VC
VOTE: aristeia
My secret scumread is popular let's fucking go

now that we’ve done the who

can we do the when/why tho

[Lucian]

Does it really count as a secret scumread when Cakez recently made a post that says "I'm very wary of Ari"?

Anyway, I think Cakez is town now.

[Aristeia]

cakes is like a popup ad

[Lucian]

This is usually the part of the game where I go "hehe let's see what happens" and vote Aristeia but the thought of it makes me sad because I don't like voting Aristeia even if I think she's more likely to be scum of the two wagons and I do want to see what happens.

[Aristeia]

i giggled at that thanks

[Una]

I think Lucian might be scum

[Lucian]

I think Lucian might be scum

Do you wanna, like, do anything about it?