Open 870 | White Flag Mountainous | Postgame

[Gimli]

Honestly this strongarm'ing playstyle isn't bringing me good results as town and it emotionally really messes with me.

Haven't read much but I think this is nearly always genuine and not some kind of theatre just to get townread.

[Aubrey]

Like eliminating Gamma doesnt cast suspicion. It doesn’t force out a strong talkative player at that point in the game…unless there is Meta involved. So I just think mafian either have a plan of attack to fix slots or comfortable with the slots in the danger zone coming into today.

[Gimli]

my lean town on lucian is independent of other reads and is based on his own play. i think this is a game where he would be more likely to struggle to really sink his teeth into it (which imo it felt like that was the case) as town than he would as scum

he also has been complaining about being so tired of being scum with potatoes and shirou may be many things but a potato he is not

so i kinda think lucian's lack of engagement and motivation is slightly antiassociative with shirou who is more than willing to do the heavy lifting that lucian is tired of doing

Hi fire! So good to play with you again.

Are you maintaining this shirou scumread of yours through his more recent posting? Is your Lucian (now me) townread based off lack of associatives with shirou? What if shirou is town? Also, what if disinterest with playing as scum has more layers than just playing with potatoes?

I haven't followed much but you've replaced in for Ari, is that right? Navigating the thread on phone is a nightmare. So those reads you had as expectator?

[Gimli]

VOTE: TGP

Aside from the hammer, I also think TGP is scummy for pushing Shirou for policy reasons but trying to not make it seem like a policy push (1076 says shirou's metapush is scummy but he also needs to be fearlimmed)

Then his transition to a Shirou townread in 1328 feels too sudden and unnatural. If you look at TGP's ISO, he has alternated between scumreading Shirou and being uncertain about him ever since page 22 (614 - votes Shirou). The quoted Shirou post that gives him a change of heart doesn't even feel that AI to me -

Spoiler:

I haven't that much experience on Lucian/Una so I feel scummy vibes but not "never wrong"/"almost never wrong" confidence

If you do feel that I can vote Una

i'm insanely skeptical that you can even hit that level of confidence on d1 reliably ever

...but god, you're just town aren't you Shirou

UNVOTE:

i maintain that i should vote you if i don't reasonably strongly townread you but right now even trying to discount hard for the fact that activity makes you seem more towny you seem actually trying to solve the game

Also 865 feels like it was edited after the fact to add a respond to Aristeia's 653 (the quoted posts are out of order)

Quoting this for myself to read more appropriately when I have context for these posts, but I find the "goddamit you're town aren't you" (I'm paraphrasing) organic and in context with being annoyed at shirou for shirou things

[Gimli]

Cat scratch, what do you think of Aubrey? Same question to fire

[Gimli]

i think that almost everything shirou has done this game (including and especially the norwee fakeout thing) aligns closer to furthering what his goals would be as mafia and not what they would be as town

Can you or someone point to what the Norwee fakeout thing was?

[Gimli]

Gamma just seems like a zero info kill. So scum must be happy enough with the game state to some degree I guess.

I think this thought from Aubrey is towny right after they say they want to flip Ari, cause it points to a paranoia that flipping the counterwagon is gonna hit another towny

Can't post more for a while hopefully I can read a little bit today

[Shirou]

I'm liking Gimli posting here but I'll admit I'm pretty biased against Lucian slot so please have patience with me if you're town Gimli

[Shirou]

@Aubrey If TGP is scum, do you think I'm a likely partner? If yes, do you think TGP is likely scum in the first place?

[Shirou]

@Aubrey If TGP is scum, do you think I'm a likely partner? If yes, do you think TGP is likely scum in the first place?

I ask the same to @Klick and @StD

[Aubrey]

I don’t think TGP looks good right now. I wish I knew if he knew he was hammer. He’s just a low info slot for me right now which makes it difficult to discern him. His case on you as I said replicates some of my earlier thoughts, so I can’t fault him there even if I didn’t agree with his end logic. What’s the scum motive for going after you at that point is the other question that needs considering. Was he trying to keep his hands clean of a town vote? Was he avoiding adding pressure to a fellow mafia? Or is this town with a genuine thought pattern? I think he’s also a slot having trouble keeping up with the thread a bit. So does going after you leave him sitting pretty for a bit and give him a breather while the thread continues being active? I just think Ari or Una might have been the easier vote…

—

I’m really not putting huge emphasis on who maybe aligned to who until I get a red flip. Mafia will naturally distance in this setup so ~

[Shirou]

I think I'm coming to the conclusion that I can't solve this whole game for real until I get a definite scum flip

There's so many theories of what's happening in this game in my head and keeping track of the conditionals is rather confusing and too much. "If X is scum but Y is town, if X is scum with Y, etc". I think I'll try to focus on getting one scum right before trying to call out a "solve"...

so my pool won't be a "this is the scum team" but rather "this pool has scum on it in most scenarios/possibilities of this game imo".

p-edit: just clarifying typed this out before I saw Aubrey post

[Shirou]

I don’t think TGP looks good right now. I wish I knew if he knew he was hammer.

He definitely knew it. He even explains himself a bit because of that. I had already said it was E-2 or E-1 a bit before.

[Shirou]

Una is at E-4.

Ok nevermind maybe TGP didn't know.

Did you know you were the hammer @TGP?

[Aubrey]

Wonder if maf is just playing a lax game.

Pina and Shirou are the loud ones…I’d have expected more people to cling for townieness.

Lucian didn’t bother me, and Gim isn’t pinging me right now.

If I throw Gim, Pina, and Shirou into town then that leaves me to look at Toto, husky foxy wolfy doggo, TGP and the other cat avatar.

I expect Fire to be active in order to save the damaged slot…hmm. Flipping this slot gives me the most info to work with from D1 because we’d have confirmed wagons.

Flipping TGP just eliminates a low info questionable slot, but if it flips town I don’t get any working info.

[Aubrey]

Oh and blondie. Idk.

[fireisredsir]

ari wasn't disinterested in the game

holy cope.

i think it's incredibly rude to tell someone that you know better than they do what their own feelings are especially after they've explicitly said that it isn't accurate and demonstrated why

even beyond that i think she was pretty clearly engaged and interested in the game and the narrative just kinda got slapped on and then stuck because people kept repeating it

[fireisredsir]

i don't think that the way he pushed tgp and then backs off actually makes any sense at all as town. it's all positional there's no real read behind it

maybe it's because your slot was fine with self-voting but not voting with me on TGP???

How is this my fault. We clearly would have done TGP there if Ari had voted with us, and I'm not blaming Ari here, what I mean to say is that I clearly tried to make a TGP wagon happen and saying I didn't when other people resisted is straight up bad faith.

i mean in real time it did look very clearly like you were setting ari up to take the blame for it so yea i would say that your approach was positional

you were playing a game of politics and not really a game of mafia. which you can do as town too sure but like there's nothing about it that is at all difficult for scum to fake and like i said earlier it's closer to playing to scum wincon than town wincon

[fireisredsir]

@Fire Why do you townread me?

i just have felt you've been towny all game and haven't had any reason to doubt that. i don't really think anything about your play seems informed to me. in a standard setup that would probably be a place where i would put you in the mental "worry about a deepwolf later" bucket but a solo scum can't win here so

[fireisredsir]

Gamma just seems like a zero info kill. So scum must be happy enough with the game state to some degree I guess.

Like eliminating Gamma doesnt cast suspicion. It doesn’t force out a strong talkative player at that point in the game…unless there is Meta involved. So I just think mafian either have a plan of attack to fix slots or comfortable with the slots in the danger zone coming into today.

i think this is probably likely

[fireisredsir]

Are you maintaining this shirou scumread of yours through his more recent posting? Is your Lucian (now me) townread based off lack of associatives with shirou? What if shirou is town? Also, what if disinterest with playing as scum has more layers than just playing with potatoes?

I haven't followed much but you've replaced in for Ari, is that right? Navigating the thread on phone is a nightmare. So those reads you had as expectator?

i always lose confidence in my scumreads once people start talking tbh

but i don't think that anything he's said is something that he wouldn't fake as scum and also basically none of it is an attempt to sort people. i think he likes talking about himself as either alignment

on lucian i think ive gotten decent at reading him and just feel his play makes more sense as town here and doesn't feel like he had goals or an agenda. the anticonnection with shirou was a pretty minor point

im ari replacement yes. i was reading the game from the beginning tho

[fireisredsir]

to be more clear on lucian i don't think his lower level of effort is that AI bc he's busy and there's potential reasons why he might not be super motivated to try as hard as he sometimes does as scum

its more about what he chose to do with his time here and just the way he was engaging with the thread as a whole

[fireisredsir]

aubrey has kinda felt like a bit of a supporting role to me so far this game

like it feels like they're sometimes... there. but mostly just to say "hey, this game sure is a game, huh?" and drop a few thoughts. i don't have a clear picture of what they believe or a sense that they are trying to move the game into a more sortable place

that is probably unfair and im sure they're doing more but it is the assessment i have after reading along and not yet actually looking closely at the slot

often that is a place where scum can be but i don't have much reason to actively scumread there. reading iso should prob be a priority tbh

[NorwegianboyEE]

Hmm i like Fire's thoughts but i'm not sure if that's to the level where i should townread it. Although Ari's handling of their EoD yesterday i am not sure is what scum would usually do so idk maybe they are just town here.

This game sure is a game huh?

[NorwegianboyEE]

I think i wrongly townread Fire once so that's why i'm being careful.