Newbie 2109: Taco Hemingway | Game Over

User avatar
CCGeek
CCGeek
Any Pronouns
Goon

User avatar
User avatar
CCGeek
Any Pronouns
Goon

Goon

Posts: 301
Joined: September 14, 2022
Pronoun: Any Pronouns
Location: India

Post Post #550 (ISO) » Sat Jan 28, 2023 3:55 am

Post by CCGeek »

An Analysis of NK's ISO

Warning: It's not what you may expect


Spoiler: ISO#0
In post 9, Not Known 15 wrote: VOTE: Dionysus Probably evil.

Obviously RVS.

Spoiler: ISO #1
In post 39, Not Known 15 wrote: Town(by exclusion)FroggyMaybe, CCGeek, AurorusVox, Space, Weuler, Wayward Son


Scum:Dionysus, Fredrick A Campbell

VOTE: Fredrick A Campbell

(Their reactions to Dionysus being E-2 are awful)

Earlygame read list. Usually can be treated with a grain of salt, but it potentially has some revisit potential, especially if scum.

Spoiler: ISO #2
In post 54, Not Known 15 wrote:
In post 40, Weuler wrote:
In post 39, Not Known 15 wrote:Town(by exclusion)FroggyMaybe, CCGeek, AurorusVox, Space, Weuler, Wayward Son


Scum:Dionysus, Fredrick A Campbell

VOTE: Fredrick A Campbell

(Their reactions to Dionysus being E-2 are awful)
Could you explain the difference between Campbell's reaction and Aurorus's reaction?
In post 26, Fredrick A Campbell wrote:Not Known 15, Space and CCGeek are voting Dionysus, putting Dionysus at E-2.
VOTE: CCGeek
I don't believe what I quoted was an innocent mistake.
So, out of the blue Campbell assumes that this was not an innocent mistake. There is absolutely no town reason for Campbell to have this strong of an opinion. This looks like a total overreaction! Mistakes can happen, and wrongly saying that E-2 is E-3 after someone correctly said E-3 is not something scum would plan to make, usually. And because it came just 2 minutes after the previous posts it is very believable that CCGeek didn't check everything again and assumed that Weuler had made a mistake; after all, it was just one page(and people are usually overconfident that they don't make easy mistakes like that).
So, why would Campbell do this? Perhaps to avoid their partner to be put in an awkward position early...
In post 36, Dionysus wrote:
In post 22, CCGeek wrote:
In post 17, Weuler wrote:I would never let mere odds get in the way of my intuition
Surely stating that your intuition is horribly wrong doesn't get me pushed further, right?

In all seriousness, fluff aside, the only notable thing that has happened till now is Dionysus' response, saying that Weuler's pfp loads for him, in response to me. AKA responding to fluff when he could respond to existing game content (Space's vote on him) or drop his own vote.

Therefore, I shall VOTE: Dionysus.
Well, up until this post there was no proper game content to respond to, only fluff. None of the votes on me were serious (because I have "sus" in my name? Come on). However you are pinging me with this with trying to rush an elimination so quickly on day 1. VOTE: CCGeek
In post 37, Dionysus wrote:Actually, UNVOTE: CCGeek as don't want to rush one myself but my fos is on your for now.
and indeed, this reaction is absolutely terrible!
Trying to rush an elimination so quickly on day 1?
Honestly, I would've understood if this fuss was about me accidentally putting someone at E-1. But even in that case, on a D1, I wouldn't have withdrawn my vote, since the slot in question hasn't posted their thoughts yet.
Nope! It's not! Not withdrawing your vote after everyone knows it is E-1 isn't rushing an elimination.
And then knowing that CCGeek is at E-2(CCGeek personally said it's E-2) puts them at E-1 without saying E-1?
Then realizes the mistake and unvotes?
And that's town?
Nope. Normally, town is generally less self-aware. Here, however... doing the exact same thing you criticize? In the exact same post? Town believes in what they say. Scum doesn't, and is actually much more likely to make a thought mistake like that and then to realize what they have done.

Solid town post. No holes can be poked in this post. I welcome everyone to try, but you'll fail.


Spoiler: ISO #3
In post 55, Not Known 15 wrote:
In post 32, AurorusVox wrote:
In post 22, CCGeek wrote:
In post 17, Weuler wrote:I would never let mere odds get in the way of my intuition
Surely stating that your intuition is horribly wrong doesn't get me pushed further, right?

In all seriousness, fluff aside, the only notable thing that has happened till now is Dionysus' response, saying that Weuler's pfp loads for him, in response to me. AKA responding to fluff when he could respond to existing game content (Space's vote on him) or drop his own vote.

Therefore, I shall VOTE: Dionysus.
How is him not voting any worse than you voting to no vote?
Also don’t like the “it’s not E-2”, “oh it doesn’t matter it’s E-2”, seems slippery

VOTE: CCG
This is actually trying to get information via a question, and is a genuine stance someone could hold. This is not suspicious.

The only notable thing is that the wording confuses me, but I get the point. Interaction with AV, where he tries to dismiss AV's suspicion of me. The only other way you can analyze this from a scum perspective is soft distancing with either of us, but considering the current game state, I think we can more-or-less say it's not a possibility. Note: one-liner.


Spoiler: ISO #4
In post 62, Not Known 15 wrote:
In post 61, Fredrick A Campbell wrote:
Spoiler: post 53 by Weuler
In post 53, Weuler wrote:
In post 48, Fredrick A Campbell wrote:I suspect:
Space is town.
CCGeek is mafia.
Not Known 15 is mafia with CCGeek.
Why do you townread Space?

Space's posts in page 2.
Dodging the question...

ISO #4, one-liner again. Slightly interesting. FAC here says that Space's Page 2 posting was enough to convince him that he's town. For reference, here are the posts in question.

Spoiler: Space Page 2 Posts
In post 42, Space wrote:
In post 32, AurorusVox wrote: Also don’t like the “it’s not E-2”, “oh it doesn’t matter it’s E-2”, seems slippery
This seems misinformative to me.
The "it's not E-2" is not what was said, it was CCG typing one thing and then after getting called out on it admitting his mistake.
The "oh it doesn't matter it's E-2" was not his excuse either with the actual quote being
In post 28, CCGeek wrote:
Also IMHO, E-2 isn't really "bad" on page 1 of Day 1, and in fact, the person's reaction as well as the future development on the wagon outside RVS may provide an interesting point to analyze later in the game.

With that said, I'd prefer to not retract my vote for now, this discussion has the potential to evolve further.
Although I can understand how Aurorus might come to to these conclusions, I will be voting them. VOTE: Aurorus

Also the fact that my first vote got taken seriously I find is a little funny. :P
In post 43, Space wrote: The excuse I read from CCG's post was that they were ok getting it to E-2 to see how Dionysus/others would respond to it, in case anyone is curious.

Clearly NAI posts. Defending a person and attacking another over a bad take is something that can easily be done by both town and scum. Early D1, so motivation/tonal analysis won't say anything either. Thus, instead of questioning FAC on why this was enough to convince him about town!Space, NK says that FAC was "dodging the question", which is frankly not true. Yes, elaboration was required on FAC's part, but he still gave an answer. The only way I can understand this post being made is that NK did not understand what FAC meant, which is still unlikely because FAC was directly answering his question. Thus, this is unlikely to be a scum/scum interaction, solely because scum doesn't leave holes in their interaction this early into D1, and this particular post would have been made in the scum PT. Conclusion: FAC slot and NK cannot be scum together.

Random thought: If Arko/LLD is what we're looking at right now, FAC's unreasonable townread on Space can be held as evidence, but frankly, I'm hesitating to put ANYTHING that came out of FAC's mouth as proper evidence. If he truly was scum, he succeeded at muddying the water to this point Lmao.


Spoiler: ISO #5
In post 105, Not Known 15 wrote:
In post 95, Wayward Son wrote:
In post 93, Fredrick A Campbell wrote:Precisely

New scumreads:
Wayword Son and Weuler
Scum are not pushing you, because they don't need to, because you're acting scummy?

Weuler and I are scummy because we've not pushed you? :?
Campbell looks like flailing scum to me because that makes no sense if Campbell is town. I cannot envision town campbell saying this.

A hard accusation and full confidence. NAI again.

Spoiler: ISO #6
In post 139, Not Known 15 wrote:
In post 126, KingTroll wrote:They do seem so far to be almost early mis-elim bait, and the fact that they've gotten to E-1
with barely any resistance
tells me that there's probably one wolf either pushing Campbell or sitting on his wagon, regardless of what he says about townreading everyone who votes him.
That's not true.
You don't want to eliminate Campbell. You are the resistance.
(That doesn't mean that you are scum, however).
Maybe Campbell's partner has not found good reasons to prevent their elimination.

AurorusVox could be that partner, for example (never actually voted Campbell, and went to press somewhere else until they had to address Campbell)...
In post 78, Dionysus wrote:I'm going to put my vote on FAC which will bring him to E-2. I will unvote though if he gets to E-1. I am not comfortable with someone being on E-1 unless town is ready to hammer because it is inherently risky.

VOTE: Frederick A Campbell
This could be a bus, Dionysus was already named as possible Campbell partner very early on(by me), which would make defending Campbell a bad idea in their mind... if they are scum.

Of course, there is still the probability that I am wrong and Campbell is town... it's just too low atm. So, who wants to drop the intent to hammer?

This is where things get interesting. The part I underlined? Well, is there any town motivation in saying this? Justifying why a scum may not be on the wagon of their supposed partner is not exactly town reasoning. What's worse is that this line quietly and subtly SUPPORTS FAC's reasoning. The same FAC whom NK has apparently been hard-tunneling into. This threw me off extremely badly as it contradicts a lot of things. Such as, the immediate next part of the post. NK casually names two loose partner possibilities as an example, slightly expresses hesitation on his reads, and asks someone else to drop the intent to hammer. Now let's go over the possibilities:
(a) NK is scum, bussing a SE Partner. Absolutely impractical, and quite impossible, but the only thing dismissing it is that he does not want to be associated with the hammer. This also contradicts his ideas till now, by the way. No clear-cut logical analysis is possible if we consider this possibility. As a newbie, you don't push your partner to E-1 hoping for a counter wagon. Possibility dismissed.
(b) NK is town, pushing his townread. Impossible.
(c) NK is town, pushing his scumread (whose alignment doesn't matter). Due to the same reason as before, no reason a townie wouldn't want to be involved in the hammering of their primary scumread. The hesitation creeping in can be NK realizing that his main push is town, which, however, is impossible as the slot in question hasn't pushed out any relevant content. This means the only possible motive behind this is what brings us to the next possibility.
(d) NK is scum, pushing a town. He slightly backtracks on his entire D1 stance, which means, he is hesitant to hammer someone who will flip green. Furthermore,
he doesn't want to be associated with the hammer and wants someone else to hammer the scummy town.
Notice how he denied in his above reply to KT that a scum cannot be on the FAC wagon. This looks like shabby newbie scumplay to me.

Till right now, the NK!Scum argument seems infallible.


Spoiler: ISO #7
In post 164, Not Known 15 wrote:
In post 162, AurorusVox wrote:The game feels like it’s stagnating a little at the moment. I think we need to inject a little something, and I think the best thing for that is to start to buckle down and sort todays elimination.

In my mind there are 3-4 scenarios I’m currently working from:

(1) Fred and WS are a scum pair bussing/distancing from each other. WS has voted but not really pressured Fred; Fred has scumread WS but not voted him. Either wagon is a good choice in this scenario.

(2) Fred and KT are a scum pair, with KT defending his scum buddy by starting an alternative wagon. Fred flipping scum would paint a bit of a target on KT’s back which could be why he’s now fully committed to defending him. Obviously in this scenario Fred is the wagon of choice.

(3) Fred is town…

(a) …and KT is scum, who is playing like he knows Fred is town. He could be defending the townie that looks like he’s getting limmed for town credit. The WS vote would likely be distraction (why pull the wagon off a mislim and onto your buddy?) and so in this scenario neither wagon is good.

(b) …and KT is town; in this case WS wagon has a lot of value. Like others though, I’m finding it a little hard to reconcile KT’s certainty that Fred is town with a town mindset. This scenario would be the least likely in my opinion.

Given all of that, and given the state of the game, I’m declaring an intent to hammer Fred in the next 24-48 hours.

Fred, please claim and give your final reads.
I also see Fred/Dio. Why don't you?

Also...
We have
declared intent to hammer Fred!

A question we don't really need an answer to, as Dio is town. Note: NK agrees with an existing read about Dio being scummy. Bolding the intent to hammer is NAI for town!NK, but it feels like scum!NK is using this opportunity to broadcast his "towniness".


Spoiler: ISO #8
In post 181, Not Known 15 wrote: Well, we got to eliminate Fredrick now.
Fredrick claimed VT.
So VT is either VT or Mafia, and if Fredrick is Mafia we obviously want to eliminate it.
If Fredrick is VT we have eliminated a townie, but we go into Night with zero unclaimed PR's. Putting another person at E-1 just increases our chances of our PR's getting hunted out.
´

Can be argued for as quite a townie post, but also tries to cover up the previous "hesitation" to hammer.


Spoiler: ISO #9
In post 224, Not Known 15 wrote:
In post 200, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In post 9, Not Known 15 wrote:VOTE: Dionysus Probably evil.
In post 39, Not Known 15 wrote:Town(by exclusion)FroggyMaybe, CCGeek, AurorusVox, Space, Weuler, Wayward Son


Scum:Dionysus, Fredrick A Campbell

VOTE: Fredrick A Campbell

(Their reactions to Dionysus being E-2 are awful)
This is a bad bad bad look. These are NK15 first two posts.

NK15 votes Dio, says Dio is scum in post 2 but swaps to Frederick without much to say besides both of them have bad reactions.

So what made Frederick's worse? And why is NK15 still here over the bad reaction from the actual person who was being pressured?
Post 9 was actually a RVS vote, so... yeah.

Self-explanatory. NK15 dodging the early read list is something to note, however. It really doesn't change anything with respect to what we have inferred so far, except that scum!NK really wouldn't have put his partner as a scumread that early on. In the scum!NK world, this means that very likely there is 1 scum amongst {AurorusVox, Space/Arko, Weuler, Wayward Son/STD}. STD would be my wagon of choice on D3, to be honest.

Spoiler: ISO #10
In post 228, Not Known 15 wrote:
In post 217, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:Ahahahahahahhaah

That's a terrible description of his reads.

He starts off scum reading a pair, then gives his logic for a town read on space which he maintains.

He changes his scum reads because he feels humble and suspects that the hard scum reads on him are town. This isn't something a scum player who wants to avoid dying would do.

He then interacts with Weu and switches his read there. Again, this is a townie read progression from a player who is lost and genuinely sorting the game.
Yes, loose reads are slightly +town. Yet they also fit a scum under pressure trying to find someone who actually gets wagoned(on Day 1 scum being the top wagon and all other wagons dying down quickly is terrible for scum)
And the quality of the reads is simply not SE material, which is more likely coming from scum.
The idea of trying to be scummy is just terrible in a newbie game and usually doesn't come from experienced town or scum so it's most likely a lie.
Campbell has claimed VT so we have to lim you anyways unless we are absolutely sure you are town and someone else is not(to protect our PR's).
But you are probably scum... so...

An assortment of anti-FAC arguments and hey, that hesitation is back again: "Probably" scum. Where is the early Day 1 NK?? If your read is changing or has slightly changed after the sub, LET US KNOW. But instead, all we get is this. The adamant demand to lim LLD slot, while being hesitant. Which really doesn't scream town.


Spoiler: ISO #11
In post 230, Not Known 15 wrote:
In post 225, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:It was also post 1 before you said with confidence Dio and Fred were scum.

So why swap from Duo to Fred?

And tell me, with Duo acting scummy in the thread as of so far, what happened to yoyr scumread on them?
Dio could be a bus on you, so they are still in the scumpile, just not alone.


About the swap... I don't know anymore why for sure. It has been several days... maybe I thought Campbell was easier to crack.

This post, again, wording included, does not make sense from NK!town.


Spoiler: ISO #12
In post 232, Not Known 15 wrote:
In post 26, Fredrick A Campbell wrote:
In post 24, CCGeek wrote:With 9 alive, it takes 5 to eliminate, brother. Dionysus is at E-3.
Not Known 15, Space and CCGeek are voting Dionysus, putting Dionysus at E-2.
VOTE: CCGeek
I don't believe what I quoted was an innocent mistake.
In post 80, Fredrick A Campbell wrote:In my opinion, anyone who has firmly stated that I am mafia with confidence are town. The following are players who fall into this category:
1. Space
2. Dionysus
3. CCGeek
4. Not Known 15

VOTE: Weuler
Why didn't my actions make you suspicious of me?
At the end these are still BS.
Especially the second! Scum not trying to jump on a suspicious townie is just so awful reasoning from a town standpoint(an experienced townie would instinctively know that scum love to vote scummy townies, an experienced scum might still not have that on the list because they are not really trying to discern what scum want to do because they know...)

Fred's logic is beyond our comprehension. And we don't need to, because, this is where you start letting emotions come into your otherwise analytical tone. If this is genuine frustration that FAC is scum and we are veering off him, why the hesitation before?

Spoiler: ISO #13
In post 305, Not Known 15 wrote:
In post 301, Dionysus wrote:
In post 300, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:You can continue to call them obvious scum as much as you like but at every turn I have provided counter argument to your MINIMAL evidence and claims that you have yet to be able to provide a reasonable response to, nor have you been able to tell me why I'm scummy in any reasonable fashion besides saying I'm scrambling which isn't anything at all.

You've been effectively utilizing buzzwords and general "feelings" about things to try and drive things forward but just because you say someone is obvious scum doesn't mean they are.

Frederic was an inexperienced townie who got wrapped up on himself
and I'm here giving town, hunting scum and checking you at every turn.
BIB: sorry, what? Inexperienced townie players do stupid things like claim when they shouldn't, believe obvious lies and make other mistakes due to not fully understanding game mechanics. Inexperienced townie players do not embark on a game of 3d chess where they attempt to act suspiciously on purpose. You're claiming I have provided minimal evidence for my claims - you haven't provided any evidence for this one beyond your word.
Yes, I agree, this bolded line is absolutely bullshit.

Emotion, again. Trying to jump at any possible line to eliminate that slot. While certainly, you could argue this point separately from all my "evidence", with everything piled together, you most certainly cannot.

Spoiler: ISO #14
In post 313, Not Known 15 wrote:
In post 307, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:Oh hey there NK 15, tell me, is Dio scum for you?

Cause Dio's on L-1, so, today would be the day to prove you genuinely have that read and it's not just something you're saying for the sake of saying it.
I'm not willing to lim Dio if the alternative is you.
It doesn't make sense. Why should I lim an unclaimed suspect when I have a claimed suspect? Especially when that claimed suspect is trying to get the unclaimed suspect to Intent?
So... you haven't addressed that obvious BS on Campbell yet. Why did you write that?

Finally, you return to tunneling onto the slot? This sequence of events does NOT add up as a townie development of reads.

Spoiler: ISO #15
In post 318, Not Known 15 wrote:
In post 311, CCGeek wrote:IMO you are our best information vote, even moreso than Lady/FAC slot.
No. Dio is not our best info vote at all.
If Dio is town we give important info to scum.
The reverse isn't true, LLD is already claimed VT.
And LLD has now lots of interactions. So no. That's just not true.

I don't have anything to say here, just read my next to next comment. BUT, I'm positive that this can be read as attempting to buddy Dio.

Spoiler: ISO #16
In post 321, Not Known 15 wrote:
In post 316, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In post 314, Dionysus wrote:
In post 310, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In post 308, Dionysus wrote:
In post 307, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In post 305, Not Known 15 wrote:
In post 301, Dionysus wrote:
In post 300, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:You can continue to call them obvious scum as much as you like but at every turn I have provided counter argument to your MINIMAL evidence and claims that you have yet to be able to provide a reasonable response to, nor have you been able to tell me why I'm scummy in any reasonable fashion besides saying I'm scrambling which isn't anything at all.

You've been effectively utilizing buzzwords and general "feelings" about things to try and drive things forward but just because you say someone is obvious scum doesn't mean they are.

Frederic was an inexperienced townie who got wrapped up on himself
and I'm here giving town, hunting scum and checking you at every turn.
BIB: sorry, what? Inexperienced townie players do stupid things like claim when they shouldn't, believe obvious lies and make other mistakes due to not fully understanding game mechanics. Inexperienced townie players do not embark on a game of 3d chess where they attempt to act suspiciously on purpose. You're claiming I have provided minimal evidence for my claims - you haven't provided any evidence for this one beyond your word.
Yes, I agree, this bolded line is absolutely bullshit.
Oh hey there NK 15, tell me, is Dio scum for you?

Cause Dio's on L-1, so, today would be the day to prove you genuinely have that read and it's not just something you're saying for the sake of saying it.
Interesting that you ignored me but have something to say to NK15 here.
Why do I need to talk to you? At this point I'm fairly convinced you are scum, so what would I be convincing you of?

I'm talking to OTHER people, not you. I don't gain anything from responding directly to you. I will prove your points wrong and sell my points to people I think are town.
What an odd reply...? Nobody needs to respond to anyone, but ignoring someone when they make a very valid point is, uh, scummy. If the situation was reversed you would be all over me for this.
Your point ISN'T valid... and you're scum, so anything you say is intended to kill me... which you're trying to do.
I think it is, and I have asked you to explain. Do it.

This wall of quotes flies over my head, can anyone kindly explain this to me?

Spoiler: ISO #17
In post 324, Not Known 15 wrote:
In post 320, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:Hey, Dio is at L-1, and hasn't claimed a town power role. Guess what that means, NK15?
Nothing. No one has claimed intent.

It means, Dio is a VT. A PR would always have claimed ASAP when they're at E-1 and we're approaching the end of the day, and there is an existing counterwagon in the form of LLD.

Spoiler: ISO #18
In post 326, Not Known 15 wrote:
In post 323, Save The Dragons wrote:i don't think i want to vote dionysus today, i think there are far worse slots tbh
Good. In this case please vote LLD who is spouting obvious BS and has claimed VT.

Tunneling again?

Spoiler: #19
In post 332, Not Known 15 wrote:
In post 328, CCGeek wrote:Also, why is no one talking about LLD/Dio?
If it's that we have a S/S wagon pair.

If my memory serves correct, LLD points out why that is impossible literally within the next few posts. And once it was pointed out, it felt obvious to me, yet you never readdress this post of yours after that. Definitely makes sense for scum!NK to keep suspicion afloat, no matter how ridiculous.

Spoiler: ISO #20
In post 335, Not Known 15 wrote:
In post 331, Save The Dragons wrote:LLD what the heck i didn't say i was voting for you lol
Can you please read this exchange and tell me how LLD can be town here?
In post 305, Not Known 15 wrote:
In post 301, Dionysus wrote:
In post 300, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:You can continue to call them obvious scum as much as you like but at every turn I have provided counter argument to your MINIMAL evidence and claims that you have yet to be able to provide a reasonable response to, nor have you been able to tell me why I'm scummy in any reasonable fashion besides saying I'm scrambling which isn't anything at all.

You've been effectively utilizing buzzwords and general "feelings" about things to try and drive things forward but just because you say someone is obvious scum doesn't mean they are.

Frederic was an inexperienced townie who got wrapped up on himself
and I'm here giving town, hunting scum and checking you at every turn.
BIB: sorry, what? Inexperienced townie players do stupid things like claim when they shouldn't, believe obvious lies and make other mistakes due to not fully understanding game mechanics. Inexperienced townie players do not embark on a game of 3d chess where they attempt to act suspiciously on purpose. You're claiming I have provided minimal evidence for my claims - you haven't provided any evidence for this one beyond your word.
Yes, I agree, this bolded line is absolutely bullshit.

Trying to rope STD into voting LLD is not quite a wise move, buddy. Especially given your voting history with the slot. Town!NK has some incentive to post this though.


Spoiler: ISO #21
In post 340, Not Known 15 wrote:
In post 338, Save The Dragons wrote:i mean it just means i'm in a pickle

pedit: are you crucifying LLD for not knowing Fredrick was SE? what am i looking at?
Not knowing is a tall order when LLD has to know Frederick was SE.
Dio asked LLD to explain that post. She refused, giving Dio being scum as reason.
I asked her to explain. She didn't do it.

Can't be argued for as scum!NK. But, tunnelling continues.

Spoiler: ISO #22
In post 343, Not Known 15 wrote:
In post 341, Dionysus wrote:
In post 339, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In post 338, Save The Dragons wrote:i mean it just means i'm in a pickle

pedit: are you crucifying LLD for not knowing Fredrick was SE? what am i looking at?
They're hopping on my use of the word inexperienced to describe how Frederic played like he didn't know what the fuck he was doing. Which I think is a pretty fair description? To be honest?

It's.... it's ridiculous.
He didn't know what he was doing because playing as scum is difficult and he crumbled. It happens.
Yep. Inexperienced... actually, a player plays far more town games than scum games. So if Campbell was inexperienced, he was inexperienced at being scum under pressure. Yes, indeed.

The first ever proper comeback after page 1. At this point, one favourable argument that you concocted is not enough to save you.

Spoiler: ISO #23, 24, 25
In post 345, Not Known 15 wrote:
In post 342, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:What gets me most, STD, is I kind of doubt both NK15 and Dio can be scum here together anymore because if they are they're literally losing when I flip town. They both die back to back after that, so...
Oh, nevermind. That's not coming from scum at this point like... ever.
INTENT TO HAMMER DIO
In post 346, Not Known 15 wrote: UNVOTE:
In post 378, Not Known 15 wrote: VOTE: Dionysus

Basically, a quick shift, followed by the hammer, cutting discussion time short. Dio was already hanging at E-1, with no major unvotes. No scum counter wagons had been formed yet, and likely never would have. This means you stopped at least another page's worth of discussion. Care to elaborate?

That's it for the Day 1 NK ISO discussion. Day 2 is mostly mechanic talk that I really don't have a strong grasp on, so I feel like I shouldn't be commenting on them, except for NK's last post, where again he accuses LLD's defense of being BS.

CONCLUSION:

At best, NK is strongly anti-town. Hypothetically, scum!NK almost clears LLD, mostly due to the hard-tunnelling. On the other hand, town!NK does not quite confirm LLD as scum. I want y'all to give your thoughts on this post. I'll be likely dying tonight, I'll try to contribute some more ISO reads before the end of the day.

VOTE: NK15 talk to us.
scumsided setups are a myth (and game balancing is a scam)
User avatar
CCGeek
CCGeek
Any Pronouns
Goon

User avatar
User avatar
CCGeek
Any Pronouns
Goon

Goon

Posts: 301
Joined: September 14, 2022
Pronoun: Any Pronouns
Location: India

Post Post #551 (ISO) » Sat Jan 28, 2023 3:57 am

Post by CCGeek »

that took a lot out of me holy shit
scumsided setups are a myth (and game balancing is a scam)
User avatar
Lady Lambdadelta
Lady Lambdadelta
She/Faer
Rise of the Phoenix
User avatar
User avatar
Lady Lambdadelta
She/Faer
Rise of the Phoenix
Rise of the Phoenix
Posts: 25206
Joined: August 31, 2010
Pronoun: She/Faer
Location: formerly in a Rage

Post Post #552 (ISO) » Sat Jan 28, 2023 3:59 am

Post by Lady Lambdadelta »

To be clear, my vote is in spirit on NK15 but with 4 votes to eliminate and 2 people already on NK15, I'm going to not vote for the moment.

But do consider NK15 at Elim-1
Yes my Lord, but questions are dangerous, for they have answers.

13 heads and counting now, plurality is adaptive. If our experience might help you,
click here
.
If you wish to
speak to one of us
, we are Niamh, Rhiannon, Rhea, Aisling, Saoirse, Selene, Aoife, Fírinne, Aurélie, Lyra, Airna, Fiadh and Laoise.
Soar on wings of retribution and set the world ablaze
User avatar
Save The Dragons
Save The Dragons
He/Him
Protection unnecessary

User avatar
User avatar
Save The Dragons
He/Him
Protection unnecessary

Protection unnecessary

Posts: 23175
Joined: April 26, 2004
Pronoun: He/Him
Location: WA, USA

Post Post #553 (ISO) » Sat Jan 28, 2023 4:50 am

Post by Save The Dragons »

i think i find the argument on NK15 more compelling than the argument on LLD but i want to try to take a closer look myself when i can
User avatar
CCGeek
CCGeek
Any Pronouns
Goon

User avatar
User avatar
CCGeek
Any Pronouns
Goon

Goon

Posts: 301
Joined: September 14, 2022
Pronoun: Any Pronouns
Location: India

Post Post #554 (ISO) » Sat Jan 28, 2023 5:59 am

Post by CCGeek »

In post 519, Arko wrote: Of cause they aren't the oracle of scum, but they still wouldn't pick someone they didn't heavily believe was town (Unless he did, and he can say that now) and having an opinion of someone confirmed town is definitely more important than the unknown alignment fuck or the dodgy fucker.
Actually, I somehow missed this post. Yes, Arko, I didn't completely Townread Space, he was a townleaning null read. However, I liked the way he posted, and his way of thought seemed similar to mine. My entire reason for visiting Space was that, in a situation where I was unsure of how to proceed, I wanted to see how someone whose thought process matched mine made progress, with one rather null person cleared. Also, I didn't want to take a risk by visiting LLD, STD or KT (I was uncertain about them). Visiting Aurorus seemed futile as the dude already was the primary thread controller early in the day and I knew fully about his suspicions, and I had no hurry to clear myself to him. Weuler and NK15 were both sketchy at best. That leaves only the Space slot, but to my luck, he got replaced.
scumsided setups are a myth (and game balancing is a scam)
User avatar
CCGeek
CCGeek
Any Pronouns
Goon

User avatar
User avatar
CCGeek
Any Pronouns
Goon

Goon

Posts: 301
Joined: September 14, 2022
Pronoun: Any Pronouns
Location: India

Post Post #555 (ISO) » Sat Jan 28, 2023 6:51 am

Post by CCGeek »

I'm going to do something rather interesting and try to analyze the NK choices for scum tonight, assuming NK15 flips.
- Me. Confirmed PR. No analysis is required. Any scum is capable of playing it safe and NKing me.
- Weuler is the second NK choice if I am spared by some miracle of god. This could imply one of two things: one, putting suspicion on Arko, or two, Arko is scum and it becomes a WIFOM.
- AV is VERY unlikely to be the NK, he does not have much presence today.
- STD: No reason to, he has a slightly sketchy ISO that can benefit scum, if he's not a scum himself. Also, I exist.
- LLD: In no parallel universe does scum choose to kill LLD over me. FAC's legacy isn't exactly clean.
- Arko: Nah.
- Third NK choice: No NK. In that case, LLD is almost confirmed scum. No other person in this PL feels like the type to make this much of a high-risk high-reward gambit. It's possible to use this argument as a WIFOM or blame it on STD, but well, I'm talking in hypotheticals here.

Very likely,
{
AurorusVox
,
Weuler
,
Lady Lamdadelta
,
Save the Dragons, Arko
}
is the set that lives to D2, under the assumption NK flips. In my opinion, STD should be the primary wagon of choice. LLD is still a complete mystery to me, I'll ISO her tomorrow. Colouring on the set are my current reads, by the way.
scumsided setups are a myth (and game balancing is a scam)
User avatar
AurorusVox
AurorusVox
He/Him
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
AurorusVox
He/Him
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 9257
Joined: March 12, 2010
Pronoun: He/Him

Post Post #556 (ISO) » Sat Jan 28, 2023 7:23 am

Post by AurorusVox »

Sorry guys I’ve been really busy the last few days. Obviously that’s when things pop off here!

I’ve not got long so here’s a very quick rundown of where I’m at:

- I think LLD is probably town (and I think Arko is too)
- I like weulers approach, but I think the logic is flawed - *if* LLD is scum I think std makes a good partner (look back at Fred/WS interactions)
- I think poe for me now puts the scum team as NK/STD
- I would rather go STD today but would go NK if there’s no chance of an STD lim now
- I am paranoid about other possibilities but I’m going to try to Occam’s razor it and go with my primary reads (if I get time later I can go into my alternative theories)

VOTE: STD
THE LEMON LIVES! - Cabd
User avatar
Save The Dragons
Save The Dragons
He/Him
Protection unnecessary

User avatar
User avatar
Save The Dragons
He/Him
Protection unnecessary

Protection unnecessary

Posts: 23175
Joined: April 26, 2004
Pronoun: He/Him
Location: WA, USA

Post Post #557 (ISO) » Sat Jan 28, 2023 7:25 am

Post by Save The Dragons »

is there a reason for suspecting me besides POE?
User avatar
Weuler
Weuler
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Weuler
Goon
Goon
Posts: 390
Joined: May 10, 2021

Post Post #558 (ISO) » Sat Jan 28, 2023 7:49 am

Post by Weuler »

In post 556, AurorusVox wrote: - I like weulers approach, but I think the logic is flawed - *if* LLD is scum I think std makes a good partner (look back at Fred/WS interactions)
Hmm looking at it, it is a possibility. Still WS spends their last posts putting pressure on Campbell. However, possibly this is just a way to not get caught if camp flips red. You have made me doubt my Claim 2 a bit.
Modus ponens
User avatar
Weuler
Weuler
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Weuler
Goon
Goon
Posts: 390
Joined: May 10, 2021

Post Post #559 (ISO) » Sat Jan 28, 2023 8:00 am

Post by Weuler »

Still NK's iso is not very impressive
Modus ponens
User avatar
CCGeek
CCGeek
Any Pronouns
Goon

User avatar
User avatar
CCGeek
Any Pronouns
Goon

Goon

Posts: 301
Joined: September 14, 2022
Pronoun: Any Pronouns
Location: India

Post Post #560 (ISO) » Sat Jan 28, 2023 8:02 am

Post by CCGeek »

Now it's basically waiting for him to respond tbh
scumsided setups are a myth (and game balancing is a scam)
Not Known 15
Not Known 15
Mafia Scum
Not Known 15
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 3748
Joined: September 15, 2017

Post Post #561 (ISO) » Sat Jan 28, 2023 10:15 am

Post by Not Known 15 »

In post 560, CCGeek wrote: Now it's basically waiting for him to respond tbh
I don't have more to say except
:Hammering when the wagon is practically done doesn't hurt town at all; any chat afterwards is usually meaningless at best and doesn't help town, plus it's 8 hours anyways - and the claim was out. I've gone back and forth for LLD
UNVOTE:
but ultimately that was a bad vote yeah.
I don't know who's scum though pretty much, and the FN has been force-revealed when that wasn't necessary - a bad move. You don't force-reveal the FN unless at danger of being hammered.
VOTE: Weuler
It could be Weuler, though, the posts are pretty manipulative, especially the one with the "I am town" premise.
Not Known 15
Not Known 15
Mafia Scum
Not Known 15
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 3748
Joined: September 15, 2017

Post Post #562 (ISO) » Sat Jan 28, 2023 10:17 am

Post by Not Known 15 »

Yeah actually...
LLD is probably town who's just spouting nonsense at times, but definitely town, sorry.
User avatar
Weuler
Weuler
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Weuler
Goon
Goon
Posts: 390
Joined: May 10, 2021

Post Post #563 (ISO) » Sat Jan 28, 2023 10:31 am

Post by Weuler »

Please elaborate: why definitely town?
Modus ponens
User avatar
Weuler
Weuler
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Weuler
Goon
Goon
Posts: 390
Joined: May 10, 2021

Post Post #564 (ISO) » Sat Jan 28, 2023 10:35 am

Post by Weuler »

In post 561, Not Known 15 wrote:
VOTE: Weuler
It could be Weuler, though, the posts are pretty manipulative, especially the one with the "I am town" premise.
Do you have any other scumreads?
Modus ponens
User avatar
Arko
Arko
She/Her
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Arko
She/Her
Goon
Goon
Posts: 380
Joined: January 26, 2023
Pronoun: She/Her

Post Post #565 (ISO) » Sat Jan 28, 2023 10:40 am

Post by Arko »

VOTE: NK15
Holy shit, good evidence to kill the bastard! The swerve to his attacker, his bad ISO, his lack of responses, at times weird as shit interactions with FAC/Delta (Which could either be awkward scum, scum trying to get a dumb townie on their side, or a scum-pair to me) Being the hammer of dio and while not starting dio's push, being the one to first seed this into existance, It's just really, really bad in my opinion. thanks for y'know doing the post of it. also, Delta you literally know that NK15 is gonna be hammered most likely, not voting them won't stop that.

UNVOTE: NK15

Well I'm still not gonna jump the gun onto them, have your hours of defense, and I'll probably hammer if someone else votes or be the second to last vote if I find you scum.
Insert an uncreative signature here. Maybe one day, maybe one day. Well at least it has colour. Now pink and bold :3
User avatar
Arko
Arko
She/Her
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Arko
She/Her
Goon
Goon
Posts: 380
Joined: January 26, 2023
Pronoun: She/Her

Post Post #566 (ISO) » Sat Jan 28, 2023 10:55 am

Post by Arko »

So....
TL:DR - Explain Iso, Explain Delta Town-status, give actually in-depth opinions, give us actual reasons to kill weuler

1: Why do you specifically think Delta is town now? are you trying to stop a townie from voting you in a fit of survival-based rage, or are you getting off your scum partner? It lines up with the weird hesitative slightly helping actions you were taking with FAC, and adds a desperate attempt of couple-line reasons to murder.

2: Your basically lack of analysis and reads at all. It's weird. You have one really bad reads post, and that's it. You have not even contributed a bit to the discussion, It's almost like you don't have an opinion, Come out and say it!

3: Can we get an actual response to the ISO analysis of yourself? like actually?

4: Yeah I can slightly see a weuler scum game where he's with either Fenrir/Delta, I can. I can see a lot of possibilities right now as we aren't too good in the reads department besides knowing CCG is Good, and everyone has like 1 or 2 they find town then ones they just can't find out at all then a scum. But still, can you like give actual analysis besides saying "Manipulative". Like give posts, point out where manipulative, point it the fuck out. Like I pointed out manipulative posts when I was on delta, but I didn't call her mainly manipulative, I called out for mainly just dodging discussion past the one counter post that was basically trying to lead into a only works in paper solution for what scum!delta would do which 1: meta-defense and 2: like said, only works on paper. but also, could just be an angry townie. But like... If your gonna try and kill someone, Either give a lot of reasons, analysis, or like follow someone that actually can be trusted or has good information on why to vote a player? You voted delta for my response that she dismissed and said "BS Defense" and that was all! now your doing it without a post? Not even a Quoted post!
Insert an uncreative signature here. Maybe one day, maybe one day. Well at least it has colour. Now pink and bold :3
User avatar
DkKoba
DkKoba
They/Them
Survivor

User avatar
User avatar
DkKoba
They/Them
Survivor

Survivor

Posts: 20917
Joined: January 28, 2020
Pronoun: They/Them

Post Post #567 (ISO) » Sat Jan 28, 2023 1:56 pm

Post by DkKoba »


Votecount 2.3

A mówiłem ci - Taco Hemingway


Not Known 15
(2): Weuler, CCGeek
Save The Dragons
(1): AurorusVox
Weuler
(1): Not Known 15
Not Voting
(4): Arko, Save The Dragons, Lady Lambdadelta

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to eliminate.

Day 2 deadline ends in: (expired on 2023-01-31 15:04:47).

The new site broke the vote counter tools, please try to make your votes as clear as possible to make it easier to track.
retired
"1 thing I will give you Dk, I think you are very good at manipulating. I don't mean that in a bad way, I just think you [have] this way with yourself. You know what to say and when to say [it]." ~VFP
"Koba doesn't really have a scumrange/townrange, Koba will kill your pet cat to win a game" ~Pooky
User avatar
Arko
Arko
She/Her
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Arko
She/Her
Goon
Goon
Posts: 380
Joined: January 26, 2023
Pronoun: She/Her

Post Post #568 (ISO) » Sat Jan 28, 2023 2:26 pm

Post by Arko »

In post 561, Not Known 15 wrote:
In post 560, CCGeek wrote: Now it's basically waiting for him to respond tbh
I don't have more to say except
:Hammering when the wagon is practically done doesn't hurt town at all; any chat afterwards is usually meaningless at best and doesn't help town, plus it's 8 hours anyways - and the claim was out. I've gone back and forth for LLD
UNVOTE:
but ultimately that was a bad vote yeah.
I don't know who's scum though pretty much, and the FN has been force-revealed when that wasn't necessary - a bad move. You don't force-reveal the FN unless at danger of being hammered.
VOTE: Weuler
It could be Weuler, though, the posts are pretty manipulative, especially the one with the "I am town" premise.
Still never explained this or what we have asked, by the way.
Insert an uncreative signature here. Maybe one day, maybe one day. Well at least it has colour. Now pink and bold :3
User avatar
Arko
Arko
She/Her
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Arko
She/Her
Goon
Goon
Posts: 380
Joined: January 26, 2023
Pronoun: She/Her

Post Post #569 (ISO) » Sat Jan 28, 2023 3:10 pm

Post by Arko »

Yeah I'm gonna have to be real I doubt we will ever see an actually good response to literally everything we have mentioned at this point, and I'm thinking NK15 is just as scummy as delta, if not more right now, plus NK15 is a lot safer of a kill too (Town!NK15 doesn't immediately fuck us over, Town!Delta does) in this gamestate, as I feel it's definitely a Mafia Advantage right now, (Everyone's reads are still a bit chaotic I'd say, they can manipulate at a moderate difficulty, and if a town member is killed it leads into a moderately to pretty easy win for them) My main goal isn't being correct- It's avoiding being incorrect, especially avoiding the scenarios that cause a basically instant scum-win.

VOTE: NK15

If this is hammered, I don't really care too much, It would be good for CCG to come out with his analysis he was doing on Delta, as is coming out tomorrow, but I wouldn't put it past a townie to hammer this, so I wouldn't scumread you very much (Unless the hammer comes right after this post, because that would be weird as fuck to come from a town)
Insert an uncreative signature here. Maybe one day, maybe one day. Well at least it has colour. Now pink and bold :3
User avatar
Lady Lambdadelta
Lady Lambdadelta
She/Faer
Rise of the Phoenix
User avatar
User avatar
Lady Lambdadelta
She/Faer
Rise of the Phoenix
Rise of the Phoenix
Posts: 25206
Joined: August 31, 2010
Pronoun: She/Faer
Location: formerly in a Rage

Post Post #570 (ISO) » Sat Jan 28, 2023 3:18 pm

Post by Lady Lambdadelta »

urge to kill

rising
Yes my Lord, but questions are dangerous, for they have answers.

13 heads and counting now, plurality is adaptive. If our experience might help you,
click here
.
If you wish to
speak to one of us
, we are Niamh, Rhiannon, Rhea, Aisling, Saoirse, Selene, Aoife, Fírinne, Aurélie, Lyra, Airna, Fiadh and Laoise.
Soar on wings of retribution and set the world ablaze
User avatar
Lady Lambdadelta
Lady Lambdadelta
She/Faer
Rise of the Phoenix
User avatar
User avatar
Lady Lambdadelta
She/Faer
Rise of the Phoenix
Rise of the Phoenix
Posts: 25206
Joined: August 31, 2010
Pronoun: She/Faer
Location: formerly in a Rage

Post Post #571 (ISO) » Sat Jan 28, 2023 3:24 pm

Post by Lady Lambdadelta »

man i realllly should let CCG come back with that analysis of me so he gets all his thoughts in before he dies

but i wanna killll
Yes my Lord, but questions are dangerous, for they have answers.

13 heads and counting now, plurality is adaptive. If our experience might help you,
click here
.
If you wish to
speak to one of us
, we are Niamh, Rhiannon, Rhea, Aisling, Saoirse, Selene, Aoife, Fírinne, Aurélie, Lyra, Airna, Fiadh and Laoise.
Soar on wings of retribution and set the world ablaze
User avatar
Arko
Arko
She/Her
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Arko
She/Her
Goon
Goon
Posts: 380
Joined: January 26, 2023
Pronoun: She/Her

Post Post #572 (ISO) » Sat Jan 28, 2023 3:31 pm

Post by Arko »

I really want that too, Because it would be a lot better for the game if that information was well out there.
Insert an uncreative signature here. Maybe one day, maybe one day. Well at least it has colour. Now pink and bold :3
User avatar
Lady Lambdadelta
Lady Lambdadelta
She/Faer
Rise of the Phoenix
User avatar
User avatar
Lady Lambdadelta
She/Faer
Rise of the Phoenix
Rise of the Phoenix
Posts: 25206
Joined: August 31, 2010
Pronoun: She/Faer
Location: formerly in a Rage

Post Post #573 (ISO) » Sat Jan 28, 2023 3:37 pm

Post by Lady Lambdadelta »

In post 572, Arko wrote: I really want that too, Because it would be a lot better for the game if that information was well out there.
yeah yeah yeah

i'll wait, don't worry. i'm being on my best behaviour for newbie game
Yes my Lord, but questions are dangerous, for they have answers.

13 heads and counting now, plurality is adaptive. If our experience might help you,
click here
.
If you wish to
speak to one of us
, we are Niamh, Rhiannon, Rhea, Aisling, Saoirse, Selene, Aoife, Fírinne, Aurélie, Lyra, Airna, Fiadh and Laoise.
Soar on wings of retribution and set the world ablaze
User avatar
CCGeek
CCGeek
Any Pronouns
Goon

User avatar
User avatar
CCGeek
Any Pronouns
Goon

Goon

Posts: 301
Joined: September 14, 2022
Pronoun: Any Pronouns
Location: India

Post Post #574 (ISO) » Sat Jan 28, 2023 4:43 pm

Post by CCGeek »

Ah shit just woke up, have an exam in an hour which will take another couple of hours or so, and then some other random stuff I need to attend to. So like, I'll start making the LLD analysis sometime around 4-5 hours later.
scumsided setups are a myth (and game balancing is a scam)

Return to “Completed Newbie Games”