Amnesiac Mafia: The Movie! That's a Wrap!

[Drixx]

I have a ton of work to do for the next few hours. I will attempt to complete it and leave myself some waking time to finish Dunn, post it, and continue on to GiF.

For the record: They aren't my top scum reads because of some super sekret™ associative posts that only I was smart enough to spot. They're independent of one another, at least at this time. If that changes when reviewing their ISOs, I will of course say so.

But again ... there's nothing for me to use to separate signal from noise so ... don't get your hopes up.

[kuribo]

VOTE:

But you haven't given answers. You haven't responded at all to being asked to case your two strongest scumreads together.

I reject the idea that I could possibly discern actual associative links from false positives in a game state where no scum are known. There's no way to separate signal from noise.

So you have scum reads but you can't explain why they're scum or why they make sense as partners?

literally any answer would have sufficed, from "I analyzed five hundred games and this pattern matched" to "I had a fever dream and the ghosts of my dead ancestors told me they were partners."

I would even accept haruspicy at this point!

[Dunnstral]

But you haven't given answers. You haven't responded at all to being asked to case your two strongest scumreads together.

I reject the idea that I could possibly discern actual associative links from false positives in a game state where no scum are known. There's no way to separate signal from noise.

What? Did you not post this:

FMPOV, if we are putting Kuribo, Ircher, TSQ and PB out of the POE, then we have :

Drixx

,

Dunnstral, Frozen Angel, GuyInFreezer, Save The Dragons

If you think there's only 3 scum, one of the above in red isn't scum. If you think there's 4 scum, and you are okay with the assumption on the top line of this post, then there is the game solve.

Which means you think 3 of 4 of the names colored red, at least, are mafia from your point of view?

[kuribo]

God damn my fat fingers

UNVOTE:

[Drixx]

But you haven't given answers. You haven't responded at all to being asked to case your two strongest scumreads together.

To be clear, I'm not asking for these things for my own personal amusement or because it's fun

I want to see the PROGRESSION that links people to their scum reads and ties them together. It's creating discussion and more importantly it's putting people on the fucking record.

(I mean I know you know this, I'm reiterating it for the "do something" crowd)

Bro ... you're the "IC" ... you are the one whose opinion and analysis matters most. You're the one who should be doing ISO dives and noting them and telling the game which 3 or 4 in the POE are scum, and why.

I'm working on it as much as I can spare the time, because I expect to get roped very soon and if the game manages to continue after that point, my thoughts will at least be able to be trusted to have good intentions. Your thoughts are presumably already in that category though.

And yeah ... I realize I'm posting in thread when I could be continuing to read through ISOs, and take notes ... but I'm already being accused of beetlejuicing and being attacked for being gone from the game when I posted ahead of time I would be. Imagine if I wasn't interacting with the game right now.

[Pink Ball]

Stop trying to vote posts kuribo it’s not going to happen

[Drixx]

But you haven't given answers. You haven't responded at all to being asked to case your two strongest scumreads together.

I reject the idea that I could possibly discern actual associative links from false positives in a game state where no scum are known. There's no way to separate signal from noise.

What? Did you not post this:

FMPOV, if we are putting Kuribo, Ircher, TSQ and PB out of the POE, then we have :

Drixx

,

Dunnstral, Frozen Angel, GuyInFreezer, Save The Dragons

If you think there's only 3 scum, one of the above in red isn't scum. If you think there's 4 scum, and you are okay with the assumption on the top line of this post, then there is the game solve.

Which means you think 3 of 4 of the names colored red, at least, are mafia from your point of view?

That's literally process of elimination. If I accept the premise that Kuribo, Ircher and TSQ are all mechanically clear, and that PB is mostly mechanically clear, then I literally only have myself and those four other names. If I believe there are four scum, then I literally found scum, and I did it without looking at or finding any "associative" links.

You cannot possibly misunderstand this, but you are trying to present it as if I'm being inconsistent. That's scummy.

[Dunnstral]

Once again I reject the notion that you need to go through my entire iso to be able to articulate a scumread on me. So far what you've given is: I try to appear active without doing anything. I am wondering why that is strong enough for me to be your tippity top strongest scumread in this game state.

[Drixx]

I really do have a lot of work to do. I'm going to just close this down and focus on getting said work done.

[Dunnstral]

If I accept the premise that Kuribo, Ircher and TSQ are all mechanically clear, and that PB is mostly mechanically clear, then I literally only have myself and those four other names.

Right. So you posting:

But you haven't given answers. You haven't responded at all to being asked to case your two strongest scumreads together.

I reject the idea that I could possibly discern actual associative links from false positives in a game state where no scum are known. There's no way to separate signal from noise.

Makes no sense. What is the signal and noise you are trying to seperate if you think they are all mafia?

[kuribo]

But you haven't given answers. You haven't responded at all to being asked to case your two strongest scumreads together.

To be clear, I'm not asking for these things for my own personal amusement or because it's fun

I want to see the PROGRESSION that links people to their scum reads and ties them together. It's creating discussion and more importantly it's putting people on the fucking record.

(I mean I know you know this, I'm reiterating it for the "do something" crowd)

Bro ... you're the "IC" ... you are the one whose opinion and analysis matters most. You're the one who should be doing ISO dives and noting them and telling the game which 3 or 4 in the POE are scum, and why.

I'm working on it as much as I can spare the time, because I expect to get roped very soon and if the game manages to continue after that point, my thoughts will at least be able to be trusted to have good intentions. Your thoughts are presumably already in that category though.

And yeah ... I realize I'm posting in thread when I could be continuing to read through ISOs, and take notes ... but I'm already being accused of beetlejuicing and being attacked for being gone from the game when I posted ahead of time I would be. Imagine if I wasn't interacting with the game right now.

And see here's where we have the issue:

I'm asking you to do it yourself SO I CAN GET A FUCKING READ ON YOU AND MAKE THE RIGHT DECISION

Sure! ISO dives! Sure! And you just gonna throw your hands up and say "well they're not doing anything," when you're being OFFERED A CHANCE TO CONVINCE SOMEONE YOU ARE TOWN by SHOWING THE CONCLUSIONS YOUVE COME TO

that's just you passing the fucking Buck while complaining that the people you're passing it to aren't doing enough with it

[Dunnstral]

I don't doubt that you really are busy, but I think that you choosing to engage in things that are unimportant and ignoring things that are important is a deliberate choice in order not to give the rest of your team away. Your inability to explain your reasons for thinking people are scum is something I am frankly not able to believe is a real thing a town player would be going through. Trying to get anything out of you is like trying to pry out teeth.

I am pretty confident that you are mafia:

VOTE: Drixx

And I invite the rest to take a look at GiF here. I think GiF being aligned with Drixx makes a lot of sense given the low frequency of GiF evaluating Drixx, Drixx having little to say about GiF, and GiF shoving Drixx as someone they are unwilling to vote based on what I feel is pretty sh oddy reasoning (WHY do they think Drixx and Save The Dragons is exactly 1 mafia)

[Ircher]

My ISO is chock full of me being town. Anyone who says differently is either scum or bad. I've been pushing for town play all game, and have consistently pushed people to think about and analyze and come to their own conclusions. I've shared my thoughts, but I haven't rammed them down anyone's throat, and I've been practically begging the so called "conftown" block to actually do something with their status.

Okay, quote some posts that show you are town.

[Ircher]

You haven't done anything except make rage posts Kuribo. That's clearly not getting it done.

I invite you to go look at the amount of analyzing Cerb and I did in "Steven Universe" when we were IC. Give Cerb 90% of the credit, and I still worked circles around the effort on display here (and it wasn't a 90/10 situation, but I'm trying to make a point).

You can rage at me all you like. You can even vote me. Doesn't change the fact that all you're doing is raging, and the folks who share in your status are also just doing nothing useful.

I'll literally eat my shorts if town can manage a single scum lim at this point, let alone find a path to victory.

Why is this your focus? Why aren't you acting as you preach?

[Ircher]

I need to do a chart with all the claims give me a sec

But I did find something interesting:

GiF is right, there are 16 roles instead of 15: all the PRs that we already know and 6 VTs. D1 is missing the Vig, the Tracker and the Gravedigger
Gravedigger and Tracker are real: Shea got the gravedigger yesterday and I got the tracker on D3.
Only role that has no confirmation is the vig, which conveniently is on a player who's alive today, but given the 16 roles instead of 15, it could be that one of the VTs is fake and it was actually a scum who fakeclaimed and randed the vig.

Another theory that we talked with Jingle back on D2: there could be 16 roles; that way the lovers get nerfed and make the game a little less townsided. Given how things went the rest of the days, this theory gets more credit now.

But what really caught my attention was this:
Drixx: Commuter, VT, VT
GiF: VT, Commuter, VT
Dunn: VT, VT, Commuter

Commuter is actually a great role for scum in this setup: it gives enough WIFOM about the comfirmable amnesiac roles to the point that some night actions could be disregarded via Commuter claim (Caterer targeted you and you didn't get the role? "Oh I was a commuter"; Visionary and someone else targeted you and you didn't claim receiving a vision? "Oh I commuted last night"; etc). The thing is, Titus started this discussion when Drixx claimed the Commuter, saying that he should've claimed it on D1, and GiF shut down that conversation by claiming the Commuter himself.

So what to do with this connection, knowing that the most likely scenario is that there are four scum members inside {StD,FA,GiF,Drixx,Dunn}?
- The three claimed commuters are scum and 1 scum in {StD,FA}. Why would GiF be going after Dunn in this scenario? While I think the scumteam's strategy is not bussing unless absolutely necessary (because one more night means more chances of town getting conftowned), if StD is the remaining partner it's completely valid to throw Dunn under the bus just to control the rethoric of the game for future days; GiF and co would know that there will be another day to play so making a GiF/Dunn 1v1 makes the other look good the next day. I think the real objective of this scumteam is missliming FA, which GiF started this day saying that was a possibility too.
- Two of three claimed commuters are scum. This one is based on two things: I still townread GiF by play; and the VC at EoD2. I think either GiF or Dunn where caught in the crossfire pushing Titus instead of Klick and I'm inclined to believe that GiF was the one caught there. BUT there's the connection between Drixx and GiF: even if the commuter was a real amnesiac role (confirmed by town!Dunn in this scenario), the way it was claimed on D2 and how GiF followed is concerning. I think that Dunn not claiming it on D3 is actually pro town. The remaining scum would be StD and FA.

And that's it, there are no other scenarios because of the PoE I have. Scenario 1 could discard the idea of voting between {StD,FA} even if everything points out to StD being scum. Scenario 2 discards the idea of voting between {GiF,Dunn}.

Drixx is the only confscum in both scenarios.

VOTE: Drixx

UNVOTE: Drixx

Just to avoid ending the day quickly in case someone has something else to say

Ok dude I know you need to keep the PoE wide

Do you disagree with what I said about Drixx?

I don't get this; who are you saying is mafia here besides Save the Dragons and Frozen Angel?

{Drixx,Dunn} or {Drixx,GiF}. By play I'm inclined on the former, by associations on the latter, so inconclusive

Strategically, voting Drixx is still the right choice

I need more time please don't end day quickly

I'm actually pretty much ready to end it

What are you planning

I already did @Drixx

That leaves GIF and Dun and I think there is a scum between the two. If both are town we have a 3 scum setup likely.

Drixx, STD and FA?

Oh and for a "who would you murk first" tally:

GiF/Drixx- Dunnstral
STD / Dunnstral - GiF
Frozen Angel-

First points out to my theory that GiF/Drixx are paired and Dunn got into wrong place wrong time
Second points out that GiF got into wrong place wrong time
Third points out to nothing

We are not voting either GiF or Dunn today

What I really care about is why not vote GiF today

Because I think one of you is the remaining town in the PoE and we are not forced to solve that 1v1 now if we can go more nights that could give us more info or even one of you randing a lover

why you eliminated the possibility of both being scum to get this conclusion?

I haven't eliminated it. It's in the context of what kuribo did.

I posted a while ago why Drixx is the best lim today strat wise.

Some thoughts about yesterday and the exercise:

I actually like how STD reacted to pressure yesterday. I had some thoughts about him before the day started and I wanted to see how he would defend himself, what "townie traits" he thought he had to see if it was part of a scheme or if they were genuine traits. There's one thing that I was waiting to come from scum!StD as a solid defense that never came through: his read on FB. StD didn't question FB getting the caterer on D3 and he stopped pushing that slot before D2 ended. If STD was scum trying to widen the PoE, why wait until D4 to do it? It's not like he hasn't had thread presence, he's been engaged the entire game, so "going under the radar" is not a correct assestment about his play. Scum being worried about the slim PoE would've started acting as paranoid town before the game came to this point.

In contrast with StD's paranoia during this day, we have Drixx who was paranoid about the lovers' claim when it was claimed, paranoid about the caterer when it was claimed and kept his paranoia until this day. He is now inclined to believe the idea of being part of a non confirmed town PoE and that the scumteam would be {StD,GiF,Dunn,FA}, but keeping the "paranoia slot" rethoric alive. That to me looks way more "planning ahead in case me and my partners start getting limmed" than StD's survivalism during this day. Scum!STD has a lot of reasons to fight how he has fought today to avoid getting limmed (mainly to mess up associations and because yeah of course scum is closer to win today than tomorrow because of the game's mechanics), but town!STD has more reasons to fight because if he gets limmed he loses, period. On the other hand, we have Drixx, who came to the thread when he became the main focus of attention for a short period, said "if you lim me today you're gonna regret it" and then disappeared when STD became the main focus again.

Yesterday I started the day like StD->Drixx--->FA->Dunn--->GiF and now I'm more like Drixx----->StD/FA/Dunn->GiF.

Back to this:

- The three claimed commuters are scum and 1 scum in {StD,FA}. Why would GiF be going after Dunn in this scenario? While I think the scumteam's strategy is not bussing unless absolutely necessary (because one more night means more chances of town getting conftowned), if StD is the remaining partner it's completely valid to throw Dunn under the bus just to control the rethoric of the game for future days; GiF and co would know that there will be another day to play so making a GiF/Dunn 1v1 makes the other look good the next day. I think the real objective of this scumteam is missliming FA, which GiF started this day saying that was a possibility too.
- Two of three claimed commuters are scum. This one is based on two things: I still townread GiF by play; and the VC at EoD2. I think either GiF or Dunn where caught in the crossfire pushing Titus instead of Klick and I'm inclined to believe that GiF was the one caught there. BUT there's the connection between Drixx and GiF: even if the commuter was a real amnesiac role (confirmed by town!Dunn in this scenario), the way it was claimed on D2 and how GiF followed is concerning. I think that Dunn not claiming it on D3 is actually pro town. The remaining scum would be StD and FA.

And that's it, there are no other scenarios because of the PoE I have. Scenario 1 could discard the idea of voting between {StD,FA} even if everything points out to StD being scum. Scenario 2 discards the idea of voting between {GiF,Dunn}.

Even if GiF is still looking the towniest of the bunch, StD towning it up makes me come back to the commuters' association. That means that there would be only one scum in {StD,FA}.

So my first strat still stands: lim Drixx, get one more night of night actions that give us more time to get one of the players inside the PoE to get conftowned via amnesiac roles and keep goind down the rabbit hole until we find the carrot.

Yep ... you totally haven't voted me today or consistently been pushing to rope me all day. Totally misrepresenting you here.

That... Wasn't Pink Ball's argument. Pink Ball argued that you haven't been his /sole/ focus of the day.

[Ircher]

I don't have to worry about associative posting. I don't know who my teammates are.

Then you can take stances on people in the PoE and stop focusing on your paranoia.

[Thestatusquo]

So is everyone just sitting around waiting to see if they get quick hammered.

I'm sitting around waiting to see if they get quick hammered.

[Pink Ball]

Not really

[kuribo]

Nah I'm putting patients in bed

[kuribo]

And also nursing a headache

[kuribo]

PB y Shea: what do y'all think about Dunn's position on Drixx?

I haven't had time to go over the stuff Dunn linked but I'm curious how y'all feel about the events

[Thestatusquo]

I don't think Dunn has said anything I particularly disagree with here.

[Drixx]

Lunch break: by definition nobody in the PoE can achieve a quick rope on someone else in the PoE without someone outside the PoE voting. Without a vote from one of you, you can sit and watch forever, and nobody else is gonna vote because they don't want to out themselves. I'm town and they know it.

If the game continues and I'm still alive, I'll try and have at least one ISO up before I sleep. If you rope me, I've already told you my order of suspicion and you'll have to do without me more deeply examining it, should the game continue.

[Save The Dragons]

party

[Pink Ball]

Dunn's position on Drixx makes much more sense than Drixx's position on Dunn. This could be pure theatrics and trying to make Dunn look better than GiF for the long run though. But for that to be true it means that Dunn does look better than Drixx in the first place.

Consider me voting Drixx. I have ulterior motives for not doing it right now