Micro 1087 | It's normal | It's over!

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sup

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so, i had actually been following this game a little a bit and when i saw the replacement request go up i thought i'd take it assuming it was a dead in the water scum slot that no one in their right mind would want to play

turns out the slot is actually town though

so i get the fun of trying to hero solve a game i have not been in and thus have no strong investment in

i can see people were gearing up to vote this slot and i would ask if you are town to please give me time. i can't promise to turn things around but i'd like to give it a shot, my reads are usually better when i replace into a game with fresh eyes

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roleclaim is town 1-shot bp btw have not checked to see if my slot claimed at all

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Well ct should be getting replaced

Medeia it was a paranoid thought that occures to me that i probably think isn't particularly likely

idk if there is great benefit in waiting for this

i guess to me it is very likely a mafia replacement so mostly net negative unless you think replacement is going to give partner away or something which eh more likely to wifom

i was mostly waiting for you to finish review and such

i know you said that it just, idk like i know it to be not possible

like i don't think you're any less town for having it or anything like really i don't think scum!you would have come away from this hard scumreading me or anything anyway

i'm just like, ! well that doesn't make sense ya know

but i have information you don't i get it

Yeah idk
We can just flip it ig
Idk if maybe we'll get value out of the replacement but obviously no context on what ct was doing all game

So if we're leaning there maybe we should just do it
The slot is unreadable rn as is i don't think i have any way to get new information/come up with a better solve on the slot

im willing to vote him off if thats what everyone else wants to do seeing as theres no replacement request in yet for him

i just really don't want the two of you to end up crossvoting at this point i guess so it's mostly downside from my point of view yeah

like even if we're going to wait i might vote, shrug, will think about this when i get off work

like worst case scenario to me would be more like someone replaces in is 'towny' or whatever and convinces town!skitter to vote town!pooky or something and we lose

when it's like, even if chicagtypewriter were towny on play to me it still seems like correct solution

I don't know what ur trying to say here, what's the downside and what do you want to do

it's like, if you're a scums with chicagotypewriter (which is only scum!you world that makes any amount of sense to me), you're pretty unlikely to actually vote pooky as things are, right? because of stated reads of t3 and such

so you're only likely to carry through with voting pooky here if you're town, and if you're town and vote town!pooky (which seems somewhat likely to me as well), then we lose

so if i vote chicagotypewriter, it eliminates these possibilities right

and a replacement just seems like it's more likely to unsolve the game than to solve it to me right now

so i kinda want to vote

purely sans context, and knowing the alignment of my slot, i would guess a relatively high likelihood both scum are in this group of people, gearing up to push the no content lurker over the edge and hoping someone makes an impulsive move before anything changes the gamestate

i think the way medeia is discussing the slot looks most like a scum who is trying to close in on the kill, but that's a probative read. i have not reread the game yet at all

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pure gamestate read: does a town with skitter/pooky/shiki get taken to final 5 by a chicagotypewriter/T3 scum team? is that a thing that ever happens? at least one of you is town and a very smart player, but use your head, because that's not a thing that ever happens. they get caught much sooner or the influential people get killed. like

brassherald

dies over with at least 6x the posts he has??? that's not a kill a lurksack team makes, idc that skitter was tunneling pooky or w/e

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my initial snap judgment on reading skitter's iso would actually be that she's mafia and maybe slightly unpartnered with medeia. if this were day 1/2 i'd fuck around and just throw a vote on her but this is ELO so i'm taking due diligence as necessary

realize reading sans context is slightly dangerous but it's the absolute fastest way for me to get caught up with the game

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im happy you repped in homie save me

history says i will not do that but as i have no stakes in this game i will have fun trying

can i get a list of the claims/flips in the game? i checked my slot and saw he lied about being 2-shot and not 1-shot to try to confuse the mafia i think

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Who said anything abt townreading the majority of players

Me - shining beacon of towniness, towniest town to ever town, etc
Medeia - so blindingly town it's painful that not everyone sees this. She's obv trying to solve the game
Random nurse - aggression is townie, the argument with medeia is townie
Kcdaspot - the ongoing interaction with medeia is townie

Pooky - dunno

Cj - null

Meuh - nullscum, don't like the lurking

Chicago - nullscum, don't like the lurking, there's a lot of iioa in your few posts

T3 - icky Kcdaspot vote, content is bland and not really related to the goings on of the game. Not active, isnt solving. Scummy

And also
VOTE: ct

Kcdaspot town
Random nurse probably is too

I like playing with you!
But i'm not confident enuf here to lead

My best bet rn is flipping thru t3/chicago/meuh but idk if that wins

these are remarkably shallow posts from skitter, 60 posts in now and i'm not really seeing a depth of thought i'd expect from her as town. the confidence with which she's defending certain players feels off to me - she can certainly get good townreads for good reasons (i pulled up thing anon as a refresher) but the way she's going about it seems quite wrong to me. take this for instance:

Why is Joker Dude massively scummy again. I just don't see it

this strikes me as more likely a read from an informed perspective than anything else

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also are you familiar with me? (i assume from referring to me as shiki?)

yeah this is a petapan alt sorry forgot not everyone in the game knows that

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pedit: hm, lying in the other direction would make sense to me, lying in that direction just... would keep him alive i guess? but why would that be his intention if not going to play the game

i think he was being incredibly egotistical and believed he was the reason scum had failed the nightkill, and so his bluff was that in order to keep him alive. you can say he's not playing but he's a noob, the traces of selfish ego play are really easy to spot, even in the post where he made his claim

i also think scum just doesn't claim BP in response to a failed kill, ever


and anyway i think everyone here can be rightfully paranoid of my play as scum but you are out of your skull if you think my first play on replacing in is to check the PT, see what my predecessor claimed, and then modify it from 2-shot to 1-shot just to be fancy and claim he lied as town. zero purpose to overcomplicating something like that.

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skitter is just...far more substanceless than i've seen her as town in a game so far in my reading. it doesn't feel like she's trying to solve people.

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Ok i think that's hammer
I'm not sure meuh is flipping scum, i would concentrate on ct and pooky tom

woof

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this is a very off the wall sort of read - based on out of context statements in skitter's iso, skitter was too accepting of chicago's claim too quickly while pooky was showing a lot more skeopticism of it. to me this speaks of too different mindsets. from an informed perspective, it's very easy to see the genuineness in the claim and know it has to be town, because it seems too weird for scum so how could you justify something like that? meanwhile a town is a lot more likely to see a weird claim and get conspiratorial in their thinking about it - this is because townies don't know anyone's alignment and have genuine paranoia. they are slow to trust people who do weird things, even if said weird things have no scum motivation to them

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as for why i'm reading skitter first - the last couple of games i recall playing wither her (coalition, guardians of the fortress) i developed an accurate townread on her very quickly. coalition was a Day 1 replace in, guardians we were both in from the start. out of everyone left in this game i think i am able to read her the best, although i'd say no one currently in this game qualifies as an 'easy' read for me

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Oh hi
I'll be around soon/later, havent read anything you'd posted

Unfortunately my instinct here is to vote u

yes well luckily i've developed a scumread on you, hopefully that is correct because i anticipate it would be literal hell trying to get you to townread me as town

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random nurse was jailkeeper, is dead

i am odd-night checker, failed checking random nurse (who claimed jailkeeping me) night one, succeeded checking pooky night three

everyone else claimed vanilla town

did you claim you were blocked before random nurse claimed?

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okay then you're probably just town given the setup is normal barring scum having a stupid multitasking role because i would not expect you to pre-emptively claim roleblocked in response to a failed kill, unless you had feedback that such a thing had happened which seems incredibly unlikely

willing to apply occam's razor on this one

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Ugh my gut is still to flip pooky here

Yes ofc

Idk u really make sense to me here

when is skitter so limp and passive about pushing a scumread she has on a strong player. does skitter actually suspect pooky or is she just faking paranoia. i think the latter is simply far far more likely

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well technically not, i just got out of a month long soulcrushing game on MU that i completely threw. but i saw the replacement request for this game go up, and knowing only it was a slot in F5 ELO that was doing nothing and everyone wanted to kill it, i thought i'd take the slot and spare the mod the agony of trying to replace someone in a completely terrible position no one would want to take

i didn't think the slot was town, i thought it was a completely fucked scum slot and i'd get to say hi and do nothing and die and hope my partner carried

instead i have to actually try to solve the game and shit

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Oh hi
I'll be around soon/later, havent read anything you'd posted

Unfortunately my instinct here is to vote u

yes well luckily i've developed a scumread on you, hopefully that is correct because i anticipate it would be literal hell trying to get you to townread me as town

it is wrong and i've been vacillating like a lot and 2/5 of the game has been absent for like two game days so like if you're town here i really, really, really want to see it

my gut is to vote you
my logical conclusion is to vote pooky b/c medeia i'm p sure is just town and i don't think ct/t3 look partnered

i've been oscillating between these two for like four days, it's been fun

i'll try but the scope of what i can do is quite limited given the game state and time remaining. i've not found you as town yet while reading your iso but ideally i would have a complete picture of the game before any sort of vote happens rather than making a snap judgment

unfortunately i would put myself at something like 20% confidence in developing any sort of read on T3 because his town play is incredibly scummy so i think my best bet to solve him is to solve everyone else in the game first

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if t3 is town i'm probably scum-you's easiest misflip, no?

asfasdfsdagdfhfgjfghdfgdfdgqq QHAT

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i'm going to assume you meant to type "scum" there instead of "town" because town T3 is the easiest misflip in the world???

but even in that case i probably try to feel the game out rather than taking a run at you immediately

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i mean i've said i thought all the misflips were town and only did it to get a flip ...

no i'd rather you b/c i'm only 60% on t3 being mafia and i'm like 90% on you

i don't want to flip thru all the prs, i'm not convinced your mech is right

*clicks tongue loudly*

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skitter are you scum with t3?

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no?
t3 wants to vote me already (and you), and is remarkably checked out

if yo'ure scum
and he's town

it should be pretty easy

nobody is looking at t3 like at all today (maybe we should be)
so ig yeah maybe but you have to divert the whole ct/pooky thing onto t3 which hasn't really been on the table till now i don't think

i've read none of t3's posts (i mean, like, i could be lying i guess obv so there's no reason for you to trust this but i had no idea that was what he was thinking

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what even made you ask that

because your posts look like ones you would make if you were scum with t3

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and makes me think you didn't know that

that is correct, though of course i could just as easily not know that as scum so clearing me because of that wouldn't be good logic

i plan to do due diligence and read through pooky as well though

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good night!

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so anyway pooky do you have actual thoughts on the game right now

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suddenly realizing i should have replaced in on a different alt which would be funny but this is my chillposting one

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they're in my iso which is long do you have anything specific u wanna ask

who do you think is scum as of right now?

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Spoiler:

can someone summarize claims stuff for me

here is chicagotypewriter claim:

Claim: Town PR, unspecified X-power type.

quoted because formatting potentially relevant due to its uncommonness

like chicagotypewriter has only played in newbie games previously thus likely not to have encountered x-shot roles at least not in game so yeah

like i don't think(?) anyone else in this game would be likely to refer to x-shot as x-power so i think that probably comes from paraphrasing

So when reading posts like these the thought crossed my mind that maybe it's ct/medeia?
Would explain why medeia isnt dead
Where the weird claims came from

And maybe i'm super pocketed?

----
Probably not super likely but this is a thought

I think if anyone else had a mechanism of stopping the nightkill they should just hardclaim?

if no one does then chicago is 100% confirmed town which is nice

and if something gets outed then oh well the day before MELO is an ok day for massclaim anyways

i, kinda want to massclaim here anyway for related and un-related reasons i guess

like in theory chicagotypewriter could have not nightkilled to try to confirm self and such so not 100%

but also,

i am an odd-night checker and my action on random nurse last night was not successful which is the only maybe relevant result i am capable of (i think) and there's probably a reason my role is in the setup, so

or at the very least for random nurse to claim or if someone else has an explanation for the above and also if there's another reason for the missing nightkill? i guess

And like you tried to do the nk but failed so knew you could claim something where ur action failed

And that it would out the pr who did it ...

Hmmmmmmm

And i'm not dead b/c i'm horribly pocketed
And pooky's not dead b/c he's in a thing with me

Like i super townread medeia on play
But .... this kinda makes some ant of sense holistically

But then ig we're missing town power
Idk lol

And ig you'd have to know that you were specifically jailkept instead of a doc or something

Ok probably less likely then

doesn't feel like...real thoughts to me. like more of a slightly performative fake paranoia that she's too quick to write off rather than investigating

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skitter + someone

nod, nod

gimme a 1-2 sentence summary of why you did the heel turn on skitter?

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anyway i read fast i just got through 330 skitter posts so i am reading your iso right now

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lack of follow through on actually voting me 1488 1509
eod-1 progression 1651

regardless of your alignment p great posting, logic here tracks very cleanly and there's a lot of detail

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well i'm reading pooky's iso and have Thoughts but i'll hold them for now until i'm finished

dunno why i started with the super long isos and not t3's 46 posts lmao

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oh right it's cuz reading t3 makes my brain hurt

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I

thoughts on the way pooky is pushing skitter here?

I don’t really like it and I think skitter’s defense makes sense, but that’s not enough for me to change my opinion on skitter.

?????????????

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why is pooky even scum

T3 after ur post who do u think is most likely scum

It’s getting late and I’m not on my laptop but my best guess would be CT and then maybe you or Pooky. I don’t think brass is scum at all and I don’t think medeia is either.

yeah i think the only real scumteam here is skitter/chicago. i'm pretty sure chicago is town and chicago/pooky makes no sense as a scumteam. i don't think scum!chicago ever has the interaction in 616 with scum!pooky. plus pooky started the whole meta case on chicago.

Yeah, I'm just going to echo skitter30 here.

What?

So ... skitter30 and I are scum, but you're pretty sure I'm town. Do you mean to say that you're pretty sure I'm scum?

Oops, I meant pooky is town.

T3, explain your read on pooky? you questioned the scumreads on him, and then had him as possible scum on Day 3 and now Day 4 you're sure he's town but you never actually gave any reasons as to why you were sure he was town.

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medeia seems to be convinced it's CT/T3 and i'll have to apologize to her post game if that's the correct solve and I couldn't get there

i wouldn't say i am convinced as much as it makes the most sense to me

idk i could be wrong of course like i don't really think you should believe in my reads over your own if you're town anyway like i've been wrong in both elos i've previously been a part of as town (ydrasse mini normal and five-player hydra game) it just makes the most sense to me yeah

also! happy scumday pooky!! twenty years!!!

hi, sup

so, can i ask you - how long have you expressed your view that this was the team? was this your stated solve on Day 3 or was it one that evolved today?

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(i've cracked open your iso but am only ~65ish posts in, and as well right now getting in 1 on 1 conversation with people is more important to me than burying my head in the archives - get a sense for people's feels and discuss their ideas with them rather than simply trying to find my own solution

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and it kinda feels like he is doing what i was afraid replacement would do with regards to trying to encourage crossvote between you/pooky

like from bloodhail's perspective, it's like,

if bloodhail is town, and he thinks i'm town (i am!), then t3 must be a scums, right?

it just seems so impossible he or anyone really would think you and pooky are partnered here i guess

so the focus on like, ohh look skitter is scummy, see, look more scummy things skitter has done,

while saying, ope can't read t3 and such, who knows he's always scummy regardless and such,

even while proposing you/t3 world feels pretty !!!

but then again pooky now encouraging it again as well and yeah +/

to be clear i have done basically no encouragement of that, if you actually look at my words

yes i have expressed a scumread of skitter because in my initial reading i didn't like her posts/found them scummy. i explained why that is.

however i absolutely did not try to get her to vote pooky or for pooky to vote her - if anything pooky was egging her on which was kind of weird to me

with regard to T3 - everything i expressed about him is true. i find him near impossible to read because his play as town is incredibly scummy to me, i can't find a rational/discernible thought process to it at all, the stuff about him being a frequent miselim is true

however, yeah, on net i can see him being scum here, although reading him on purely individual terms has high error bars

i would agree that the logic you have proposed for him being scum from my pov is correct if i assume you are town and skitter/pooky are unaligned

HOWEVER

- i just replaced into the game last night. you/skitter/pooky have over 1000 posts combined. i have not read all of those posts yet (i was ~65 posts into your iso as of the time you showed up, but right now direct interaction is more important to me than burying my head in the archives, because i am trying to get a feel for people's thinking). i am not in a rush to leap to conclusions a few hours after joining the game - i think that would be bad process. i can't simply confirmation bias myself on the first thing i see.

all that being said,

as of right now i think t3 being scum is most likely correct

. i would still like to verify that the logic for this holds up though, and i would have to investigate those things myself. that involves both making sure you are town and making sure skitter/pooky interactions are not theater. i am in the process of doing this


i think what you are doing in your post is leaping to conclusions without first trying to ascertain what my actual perspective is - i believe this is entirely understandable if you are town, because ELO is a time of high paranoia, and you are inclined to read sinister motives into my actions, due to a pre-existing bioas against my slot. you see a scummy lurker who flaked and got replaced by someone who is suddenly going high effort and you get afraid that i'm making sinister maneuvers to try to swing the game for scum. i get that. however, if you are town

please

give me a chance to speak my mind here and actually explain my thinking, rather than jumping to conclusions about what i am doing. if i give my best and you still can't find me that's on me, but first ask me things and ascertain my thinking rather than simply assuming i am saying/doing things that i am not.

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@medeia idk i still think ct's side is pretty clearing?

mediea
can i get the cliffnotes version for why i should be unpartering ct/t3?

it just doesn't seem impossible or even super improbable to me or anything and someone has to be partnered here and the nightkill stuff feels more clearing to me i guess,

like bloodhail says 't3 is easiest misflip in the world if town' but like, chicagotypewriter actually would have been for you/t3 or pooky/t3, just kill me eliminate chicagotypewriter

anyways:

Okay, I'm doing a little better on catch-up. The most important thing here is I needed to make sure I actually want to keep my RVS vote on T3.

Overall:
-T3 seriously voted for Kcdaspot 31, unvoted

six minutes later

34, and then seemed to indicate that the initial vote wasn't icky 226. I'm not a fan of this voting behavior.
-T3 supports Random Nurse over Medeia (and who in turn supports T3 back). I'm not sure I like this. Calling them a scumteam seems a bit too obvious as this point given how much they're supporting each other, but ... well, it's kind of weird from my perspective, given I have a scumlean on Random Nurse right now; given his main gripe against Medeia is the refusal to add a vote for pressure.
-T3 is currently at E-2 with my vote, I believe. I'm find with this.

Decision: Vote stays. I'm going to work on the rest of the catchup, be back in a bit. (By which I mean later today, if I can get to it.)

This just looks so beyond unaligned

idk with this i still worry that like, he made this whole case and everything for keeping the rvs vote and then when he finished the readslist the next time he was posting he moved his vote to random nurse saying it wasn't doing anything and such citing t3 not reacting to it and it's kinda hm to me and there was expected pressure on random nurse from his perspective from pooky/me

but yeah it is a case for partner at e-2 nonetheless

i guess this is still the post that looks the most unaligned with t3 to me but it was like, the only thing he was focused on up until that point and then when he does finish the catchup and presents his readslist he moves the vote because it wasn't doing anything but then says he scumreads t3 for not reacting to it and it's just like hmm

while also trying to pressure meuh who was also under pressure and then random nurse

and then later chicagotypewriter only goes back to t3 because skitter specifically asked him to:

Chicago can u vote t3 ?

Aye, ma'am, cat's paw away.
VOTE: T3
...
...
I reserve the right to blame you if anything goes wrong.

and i guess to me it's like, what other choice would chicagotypewriter have had there based on stated reads and it kinda feels like maybe he was trying to make you think it was a bad wagon even though he was supporting it

and then later in the day post claim and such chicagotypewriter refuses to join meuh wagon despite not townreading her emphasizing that he wants to stay on t3 (by himself) and it just feels more for show and such like the wagon had already shifted because of claim so chicagotypewriter probably wouldn't feel like he had to vote meuh for survival reasons

i think what you're doing here is forcefitting a read very hard - you

want

the team to be me/T3 more than it actually makes sense, and so you're taking posts that would have the most rational conclusion be that my slot and T3 are unaligned and assuming the opposite

the thing is, this is overly elaborate and scum generally do not play around each other like this

however, psychologically this is very hard because in your mind you have miscleared someone and it's very hard to take back that clear so you keep looking and staring hard at the posts from my slot and convincing yourself because they have to be scum with T3 rather than re-evaluating where you need to


this is coming from the perspective of someone who 2 weeks ago spent several days of his life throwing away a game in similar fashion so i recognize the thought patterns going on here

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to be clear i have done basically no encouragement of that, if you actually look at my words

yes i have expressed a scumread of skitter because in my initial reading i didn't like her posts/found them scummy. i explained why that is.

however i absolutely did not try to get her to vote pooky or for pooky to vote her - if anything pooky was egging her on which was kind of weird to me

it isn't the words as much as the stances that would encourage that, like i do not expect scum!you would say 'oh skitter should vote pooky' or anything,

pooky has been doing so throughout even when he said he was townreading her which was ...

which i guess maybe i assumed you knew, hm

i mean no, not really, i wasn't aware of that, mainly had seen skitter had been pushing pooky some time ago

i think in general the way i've thrown myself into the game with wild abandon is actually a strong towntell for me although i would not expect others to recognize it that way. as scum in elo, your goal is to get one town to vote incorrectly. most of the time winning scumteams have an idea of who this will be, the players and their social relations have been fully laid out and they know who they can convince and work them to do so. this necessitates playing around them tactically. were i scum replacing into this position i would need to actually survey the game and get a view of the landscape before making actions, becaue i wouldn't want to disrupt a potential winning vote by pressuring the wrong way

(if i felt like trying at all - if my partner is well situated i have no problem falling on my sword and leaving them to carry. this would obviously not be the case if i were scum with t3 though)

whereas as town i don't really care about that stuff so i can be a lot more free and unrestrained - i only care about getting the solve and convincing others of it


anyway, if you were to give me an ultimatum of, like, vote t3 now or else, i would do that, although i would not be happy about it

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so, can i ask you - how long have you expressed your view that this was the team? was this your stated solve on Day 3 or was it one that evolved today?

it seemed possible team to me throughout yesterday as well and i am pretty sure i expressed as much at various points though it certainly became more likely to me today especially with pooky posting at one point which you also commented on recently,

so, can i ask you - how long have you expressed your view that this was the team? was this your stated solve on Day 3 or was it one that evolved today?

it seemed possible team to me throughout yesterday as well and i am pretty sure i expressed as much at various points though it certainly became more likely to me today especially with pooky posting at one point which you also commented on recently,

here:

lack of follow through on actually voting me 1488 1509
eod-1 progression 1651

regardless of your alignment p great posting, logic here tracks very cleanly and there's a lot of detail

like i said at the time that was the first time this game where it felt like pooky was like, Here I Am To Save The Day, ya know

and i know pooky knows that's what i was looking like i know this i do i even said as much earlier in the game to random nurse at some point

it's just like, even then is he really that good at just doing so

mm, like yeah maybe i worry a bit about this because he then was like, 'oh if medeia made tea to stay up with me i'll just lose to her' or whatever ya know

like maybe(???) it felt like he was trying to make me recall that but i feel like that is one of those things i should ignore yeah

mmm yeah gotcha

it's not like it's totally out of range or anything but also him keeping skitter alive to turn against her and try to fight her in 5p would be rather counterintuitive - he could do the same thing to brass and that is a much easier 1v1 to win, no offense to brassherald, skitter is just one of the last people most scum would choose to 1v1

(i must admit here i looked at brassherald's iso and have no idea what was happening with that kill - he was dead wrong on my slot and if pooky is town then brass existing was a free win for scum. however scum have made weird kills all the time and so i don't love reading too much into this type of thing - much preferable to analyze the posts of living players. that feels like a bit of a copout but i didn't think i could mention brass without addressing it)

[bloodhail]

i think what you're doing here is forcefitting a read very hard - you want the team to be me/T3 more than it actually makes sense, and so you're taking posts that would have the most rational conclusion be that my slot and T3 are unaligned and assuming the opposite

the thing is, this is overly elaborate and scum generally do not play around each other like this

however, psychologically this is very hard because in your mind you have miscleared someone and it's very hard to take back that clear so you keep looking and staring hard at the posts from my slot and convincing yourself because they have to be scum with T3 rather than re-evaluating where you need to

it's funny beacause earlier i even said i felt like maybe i just

wanted

the team to be you/t3

and from your perspective the other worlds that made some sense to me previously would also be impossible,

like if you're town the problem isn't so much that i have miscleared someone as much as it is that i have miscondemned you, as i am trying to convince myself that those make sense because other things do not make sense, and those things are more concrete to me, if that makes sense

mostly this makes so much sense to me,

chicagotypewriter actually would have been for you/t3 or pooky/t3, just kill me eliminate chicagotypewriter

and the associative things i feel like, if i try i can see it yeah, shrug

i mean no, not really, i wasn't aware of that, mainly had seen skitter had been pushing pooky some time ago

i think in general the way i've thrown myself into the game with wild abandon is actually a strong towntell for me although i would not expect others to recognize it that way. as scum in elo, your goal is to get one town to vote incorrectly. most of the time winning scumteams have an idea of who this will be, the players and their social relations have been fully laid out and they know who they can convince and work them to do so. this necessitates playing around them tactically. were i scum replacing into this position i would need to actually survey the game and get a view of the landscape before making actions, becaue i wouldn't want to disrupt a potential winning vote by pressuring the wrong way

(if i felt like trying at all - if my partner is well situated i have no problem falling on my sword and leaving them to carry. this would obviously not be the case if i were scum with t3 though)

whereas as town i don't really care about that stuff so i can be a lot more free and unrestrained - i only care about getting the solve and convincing others of it


anyway, if you were to give me an ultimatum of, like, vote t3 now or else, i would do that, although i would not be happy about it

it's so hard to try to weigh that because you were following along and such, and also you probably have some ability to do so in realtime,

hm, i wouldn't really expect someone with your reputation (or from my experience with you / games i have read) to like, fall on your sword or whatever here regardless,

and to me it felt like maybe you were searching for that winning vote, but also like you said maybe i am just reading scum intention into everything, like i do not think that is impossible but i also do not know how not to

we have some time, like i guess i'd prefer only giving 24 hours or so until we are at decision point to honour skitter's v/la as that will encompass the rest of the deadline,

yeah i think this is very understandable on your part and i respect that perspective

as for me falling on my sword i can link 2 different examples

in Perpetual MELO IV i replaced into a slot that was universally scumread and came under fire almost immediately. i did not immediately give up but i switched my angle to WIFOM almost immediately - because of my position and the nature of the setup, i knew my slot was a dead duck and so i did things to try to obfuscate my associations in order to help my teammates out. i hard defended town Nacho who was being tunneled by most of the town and it worked to encourage a wagon on him, which i hammered when it went to E-1. my team wanted me to stay in the game because skitter was the only scum who was even remotely well positioned but i knew i was hard outed and me staying in the game and continuing to struggle would only potentially spew more players as town, so i escaped and put my trust in skitter

in white flag i also replaced into a slot and got instantly wagoned because it was a hydra that had flaked and people had assumed it was, like, an auto-guilty. i asked in the scum pt if there was a plan or if it was worth me trying to fight off my elimination. given that guiltylion was significantly more invested in the game and had put work into it, i took him at his word when he said there wasn't a lot i could do to save my slot and so i complied and rolled over and died and didn't give anything away. i'm not a selfish player who prioritizes his own survival/the glory of endgaming above all else, even if endgaming is what i usually do

anyway that's all to say that in this spot if i was teamed with any of you/pooky/skitter i would probably just trust in my teammate to carry here. i would not trust in t3 to carry because he tends to give up/do nothing as scum when he gets pressured

[bloodhail]

also! happy scumday pooky!! twenty years!!!

thanks it's been a while huh :3

oh yeah congrats btw

i realized last night how ironic it is that skitter was accusing you of being mafia for not catching scum yet when you literally invented the Burden of Proficiency argument

[bloodhail]

it's true Burden_of_Proficiency

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here's a question i have i could probably find the answer to myself but i'd rather have someone else tell me: was there any momentum toward killing T3 today instead of my slot?

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i think that's fascinating because there were two slots that were similarly inactive/low content, but all the momentum was going toward voting out mine, the one i know is town

it's not a surefire thing but i would think if both my slot and T3 were town it would be positioned as an either/or thing rather than all attention going to chicage

[bloodhail]

as for me falling on my sword i can link 2 different examples

in Perpetual MELO IV i replaced into a slot that was universally scumread and came under fire almost immediately. i did not immediately give up but i switched my angle to WIFOM almost immediately - because of my position and the nature of the setup, i knew my slot was a dead duck and so i did things to try to obfuscate my associations in order to help my teammates out. i hard defended town Nacho who was being tunneled by most of the town and it worked to encourage a wagon on him, which i hammered when it went to E-1. my team wanted me to stay in the game because skitter was the only scum who was even remotely well positioned but i knew i was hard outed and me staying in the game and continuing to struggle would only potentially spew more players as town, so i escaped and put my trust in skitter

in white flag i also replaced into a slot and got instantly wagoned because it was a hydra that had flaked and people had assumed it was, like, an auto-guilty. i asked in the scum pt if there was a plan or if it was worth me trying to fight off my elimination. given that guiltylion was significantly more invested in the game and had put work into it, i took him at his word when he said there wasn't a lot i could do to save my slot and so i complied and rolled over and died and didn't give anything away. i'm not a selfish player who prioritizes his own survival/the glory of endgaming above all else, even if endgaming is what i usually do

anyway that's all to say that in this spot if i was teamed with any of you/pooky/skitter i would probably just trust in my teammate to carry here. i would not trust in t3 to carry because he tends to give up/do nothing as scum when he gets pressured

in contrast to this i can link a few games where i replaced in as town and developed reads very quickly - i am not sure if any of this would actually help in finding me but i like talking about it

[bloodhail]

fuzzy friends coalition - i replace in post coalition phase, and immediately pull dead-on accurate reads on skitter and menalque and nail datisi as scum. unfortunately i misclear his partner (save the dragons) and never successfully get my head around it and town loses

open 835 | D6 - i replace into a widely scumread slot that was about to die on the day before ELO. i asked for time to let me sort before i'm executed, and very quickly and accurately solve the game, since the scumteam was mostly inactive. i actually managed to get the trust of the town somehow and we execute scum instead of me, i get NKed and town wins the next day

Mini Normal 2249 - i replace in during ELO and immediately solve the game but i don't have the confidence to show my worldview, i hedge on a read because norwee was tunneling and then enchant votes me because he's a shit player and a fucking baby and town loses

star trek upick - i replace in, manage to break up a TvT death tunnel between LLD and Aureal, use associatives to catch one of the scum although i was incorrectly sussing xyzzy and misclearing penguin, re-evaluated later in the game

in all of these cases i'm able to pick up reads relatively quickly as town in replace in and usually have a decent degree of accuracy. demeanor at times is slightly different depending on the gamestate/playerlist but i think in all cases my sorting process is hopefully pretty obvious?

[bloodhail]

@pooky - fwiw i don't think medeia/skitter are a team - i get

why

you're afraid of that but i'm 25% of the way into medeia's iso and i don't think it's a scum/scum dynamic, like 75% confidence

[bloodhail]

lol

fair enough but also i'm not sure that happens because i don't think demona makes that vote and i think T3 might just not be coming back to the game - he's 5 hours out from prod range and i would have zero surprise if he just decided to abandon the game altogether

i don't know wtf anyone can do about that

[bloodhail]

lol

fair enough but also i'm not sure that happens because i don't think demona makes that vote and i think T3 might just not be coming back to the game - he's 5 hours out from prod range and i would have zero surprise if he just decided to abandon the game altogether

i don't know wtf anyone can do about that

Fwiw this has basically been the approach to your slot too ...

i mean yeah sure i get it, there's not a lot you can do when two players are basically not playing. i have the benefit of knowing my own alignment though and i can try to deduce T3 via process of elimination from getting reads on everyone else

however if he is town then we're just losing unless he gets replaced. of course he could just as easily wait until he hits his prod and then show up after you're on V/LA which would be super shitty, but i wouldn't put it past him - he replaced onto my team in warrior cats and said he would do things then did fuckall and openly ghosted the scum pt while i was begging him to post. so like i can see him just choosing to lurk out ELO as scum because he's completely frozen.

as it is i think he makes reasonable sense as scum given my current reading of the game though and if i'm getting misted by two of you i'd accept losing to that (i mean obv not that invested in this game but etc etc)

[bloodhail]

i guess the alternative is you and pooky doing epic theater to look unaligned lol

[bloodhail]

well, he could be a bad guy

or it could just be that he doesn't know anyone's alignment

[bloodhail]

standing emoji

[bloodhail]

standing emoji

why'd you choose to show your work this game

at least re:skitter

obviously less so regarding everyone else

hm, well - skitter was the first person i elected to read and i decided to immediately just throw my impressions into the thread as i got them. it's ELO so if someone is scum i do need to case them.

i slowed down and held back a little for a few reasons. first of all, i don't necessarily want to bias myself into deciding the first read i make is correct because if it's wrong that will make it harder for me to find the correct answer. i could spend all day dumping on skitter and if it's wrong i won't give her a chance to change my mind and if it's right it's unlikely to be persuasive. secondly, i'm prioritizing the social dimension here - while i care about getting the right answer i need to feel people out and get to understand their perspective if i am to have any hope of persuading them. at the same time this is allowing me to get reads - while general conventional wisdom is to not read too much into what people say on ELO, i had years of real time chat mafia experience from years ago that say it is possible to get a read on people by how they are playing in an ELO situation.

and so i have been forming reads, i just haven't necessarily been expounding on them at length, because towncasing tends to take more work since there's more subtlety/nuance to it and i don't necessarily want to hijack the game and just go "yeah here's the solve shut up and listen to me". i want to discuss with people, have a dialogue.

if i really wanted to i could vote right now but as said - yall have been in this game for a month, while i've been in it for a day. it feels like it would be incredibly selfish of me to go "yeah i am the one who should be casting a potentially game deciding vote here and not anyone else"

also how does anyone ever get past

'oh but he's aware this is how he might replace in as town here...'

shrug

you can be afraid of losing to me, but from experience playing out of fear does not lead to winning outcomes a majority of the time. or, you can evaluate me on whether my words and actions make sense from a town perspective or not. if you have questions about how i am reading things, feel free to ask me

[bloodhail]

demona

this is actually quite clever if you're a scums (and it's intentional)

like see i was reading angels + demons whyever would scum!me have been doing that

could have also simply been reading angels + demons of course

i think i just mentally slipped it because i am reading your iso and you made reference to that alt being in that game - i haven't actually opened up that game myself

[bloodhail]

tbf i wish i was clever enough to do something that subtle as scum

faking meta diving of course is trivial (it's actually one of T3's default tricks as mafia), but the unintentionally slipping a name thing, that would be slick

[bloodhail]

honestly it's probably not as easy as i'm treating it - historically when i'm in a position of being suspected at ELO as town, it's only been extremely good players who have been able to find me as town, and i never actually picked their brains as to why they saw me as town so i can't actually speak to their process of how it was done

however every time i've gotten misexe'd at ELO it was because the voting player was confirmation biased and ignored everything that was said or the fact that scum had carried them all game to that point for the purpose of being the losing the vote

i like to think if i was actually a better player i could have seen a way to persuade those people but in most cases i really have no idea. i think most people hate my rhetoric, even when they pretend not to.

[bloodhail]

"yeah i am the one who should be casting a potentially game deciding vote here and not anyone else"

hm

who do you think should be casting a vote?

if i had my way, skitter or pooky - they've been involved in the game, are potentially scum but if not i would have the hope that they would vote scum

it's also kind of a thing where they keep dancing around crossvoting but won't commit and i'm starting to wonder if the "will they or won't they" is just going to go on forever

(selfishly also this would potentially disprove your world of me/t3)

i'd accept t3 voting if he ever actually posted again although i dunno if other people trust a potential town t3 with that decision lol (i'm not saying he is town just that if others are concerned he might be, he would not be an ideal voter)

[bloodhail]

however every time i've gotten misexe'd at ELO it was because the voting player was confirmation biased and ignored everything that was said or the fact that scum had carried them all game to that point for the purpose of being the losing the vote

i like to think if i was actually a better player i could have seen a way to persuade those people but in most cases i really have no idea. i think most people hate my rhetoric, even when they pretend not to.

i mean, i certainly do not hate your rhetoric, but how am i supposed to respond to this

it's like, yeah if you're town you're probably being truthful though somewhat manipulative and if you're a scums you're directly saying 'you're confirmation biased and ignoring me and the

real

scums brought you here just to be wrong!!!

ya know

i didn't actually mean it as a direct attack on you although reading it now i realize it comes off that way - this is probably at least part of my problem, i wasn't trying to be manipulative but my word choice comes across that way (although i am not above playing manipulative as town and in fact think i should probably do it more often)

i was sincerely examining the subject of "how have people found me as town in do or die situations in the past" because you sort of raised the question of how to read what i'm doing, and it led me to ponder that

because really i'd like to help you out and show you how to find me as town here, the problem is that i'm not really sure how other players have done it in the past. just as a general thing i'd like to both have you make the right vote and learn how to evaluate me (or any other player) in this situation

[bloodhail]

want to say that it would be fitting end to the game if t3 is town and randomly showed up and voted town right now but i also don't want to encourage him

lmao

[bloodhail]

I think it's t3/pooky

is that just based on my posting or what

[bloodhail]

I think it's t3/pooky

is that just based on my posting or what

Well i still don't think ct/t3 are paired (if anyone would like to dispute that, please do so. ...)

So it has to be pooky if i accept town-medeua

And you posted something to the effect of 't3 can just lurk as scum' and then i was like ... it's probably just the simple answer here

ok, got it, thanks

[bloodhail]

tbh it would be really funny if t3 also flakes and we get an epic replacement like it's faker or someone and i have a 100 page shitfight with him

make this game spicy

[bloodhail]

i dunno, like, it's your game. is there a reason you're holding back?

at a minimum we can disprove that the team is me/medeia (not that this is a thing anyone is entertaining)

[bloodhail]

you're either wrong or right and life will go on either way whatever you choose

[bloodhail]

that being said, you have to decide if at any point something could convince you to change your viewpoint or if the evidence in front of you is enough

if you haven't seen enough reason to believe the person you're voting could be town - then vote.

if you still have doubts - don't. re-examine those causes for doubt.

[bloodhail]

i guess a vote is not going to happen, then

hopefully T3 is simply replaced at this point because otherwise with skitter going V/LA i don't know what else we can do here

[bloodhail]

Ok wtf there is no way that bloodhail and skitter are partnered. Unless bloodhail is pulling off an insane scum madterclsss I just don’t see it

definitely the only 2 time don corleone winner could not pull off an insane scum masterclass

[bloodhail]

VOTE: bloodhail

maybe we shouldve just yeeted ct

uh please do not do this

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pooky my belief is that you are more likely to be town here so please do not vote me

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3 times between us, no?

correct yes

if you were on my team tho id just let you carry me again =]

[bloodhail]

pooky my belief is that you are more likely to be town here so please do not vote me

i only voted you to try to bait skitter/t3 to try to quickhammer you because they were both online but after a minute of refreshing nonstop with my finger on the unvote post my poor heart couldnt handle it anymore

god imagine how i felt reading that fter tabbing out for a minute

[bloodhail]

Ok so peta
Who is scum with t3 in the universe where t3 bussed his partners
Linked a game
Where he describes t3 doing exactly that?

no he linked 5 games where he replaced into a slot to show shiki how he played in replace in situations

i dont think he remembered he said that about T3 in that specific game

yeah i didn't even remember t3 was in that game tbh even tho i went back to read it

[bloodhail]

this is such a great game im glad you showed up to make it spicy peta

thanks im happy to be here

was feeling down after getting my soul ripped out by that dogcrap game but this is a low stakes low investment game for me where i get to practice my analysis and social play and chat with people i enjoy. good times.

[bloodhail]

Ok wtf there is no way that bloodhail and skitter are partnered. Unless bloodhail is pulling off an insane scum madterclsss I just don’t see it

definitely the only 2 time don corleone winner could not pull off an insane scum masterclass

see now I kind of want to lim medeia

uh

why

[bloodhail]

pooky my belief is that you are more likely to be town here so please do not vote me

i only voted you to try to bait skitter/t3 to try to quickhammer you because they were both online but after a minute of refreshing nonstop with my finger on the unvote post my poor heart couldnt handle it anymore

honestly im so washed

20 years ago I would've just been laughing and drinking a beer while refreshing randomly

[bloodhail]

@T3

just for the record, i have medeia as very strong based on my read of her iso, her claim, and how she is playing this phase. under no circumstances should you vote her if you are town.

[bloodhail]

well i'm headed to sleep now, gl yall

[bloodhail]

I don't like voting in elo
Don't want to get it wrong

Tbh i also don't know what i'm waiting for or what conclusion i'm expecting to be different so i probably just should

I just don'r want to have the game-ending vote if i'm wrong >.>

man i thought myself in a circle and im back where i started maybe i should just leave the thinking to shiki

are you two actually fucking mafia together? you've spent days calling each other lock scum and laying out extensive reasons for the other being scum and yet when the possibility comes to cross vote you keep chickening out. Did you actually believe anything you said about the other or was it all performative to look unaligned? Are you too scared to bus each other?

[bloodhail]

I don't like voting in elo
Don't want to get it wrong

Tbh i also don't know what i'm waiting for or what conclusion i'm expecting to be different so i probably just should

I just don'r want to have the game-ending vote if i'm wrong >.>

man i thought myself in a circle and im back where i started maybe i should just leave the thinking to shiki

are you two actually fucking mafia together? you've spent days calling each other lock scum and laying out extensive reasons for the other being scum and yet when the possibility comes to cross vote you keep chickening out. Did you actually believe anything you said about the other or was it all performative to look unaligned? Are you too scared to bus each other?

it just seems so improbable to me and also

i absolutely did not try to get her to vote pooky or for pooky to vote her

yeah

just mmmmmm

i don't think it's improbable at all, based on my late night paranoia a few hours ago. if anything when i reread looking for that, it seemed quite possible. when i reread it felt like neither actually wanted to kill the other.

and as for the second bit - well, i hadn't done that at that moment in time. obviously you could say that i'm doing that now and i wouldn't dispute that. however, i want to emphasize - if i am mafia, the game is won for me if i get one to vote each other, but it can happen either today or tomorrow. i do not need to protect T3, i bus the shit out of him because him existing is an immense liability to any scumteam. in my first game on this account i threw him under the bus on day 1 because his play jeopardized the entire team, and i leveraged that to protect the rest of my teammates

this is kind of - when i first joined the game i was taking it easy because although i think skitter is mafia and you disagree with me, it seemed possible there would be support for votes on her anyway. and if not, getting votes on T3 wouldn't be hard. but last night I was struck with the vision of a true hellworld game, and that terrifies me. i have a lot more to say to you, but it's going to take me a while to write it.

[bloodhail]

okay, so, medeia.

first things first, i think you are town. i still haven't read your full ISO, but off the first page i think you come across as genuinely solving the game, concerned with analyzing people's motivations and trying to figure them out. you've come across as

genuinely

paranoid in our conversations since i replaced in, and also had some subtle towny moments that i don't think most scum would fake. if you snowed me, good job, i will gladly lose to you.

i think you are very, very pocketed by skitter. skitter has deep pockets - it's why she's so good as mafia. i haven't been trying to convince you that you are pocketed because convincing someone they are pocketed is probably one of the hardest things in mafia. it's god tier difficulty, i don't think i've ever succeeded at it. it takes more persuasive skill than i have. i think your reasons for townreading her, from what i have seen, are not that good. i think skitter confidently townreading you all game is how she pockets people - i have seen it many times before.

the thing is, i know skitter is mafia, and skitter knows i know she is mafia (trust me on this), yet she does not seem especially concerned with this. i have to ask myself - why is this? why is she hemming and hawing about voting pooky? i think in a world where skitter is mafia and pooky is town, she still has a pretty significant chance of getting you to vote with her and winning that 1v1. but doing so would also force you to re-evaluate since it would disrupt your worldview that me/t3 is the team.

when it comes to pooky - my initial view was that he was town, you can see in how i reacted to his vote on me. i thought for a while he was exhibiting real paranoia here and his case on skitter was pretty good. his reactions to skitter kind of looked townie to me. however - his posting last night felt very

off

to me, and i got concerned. i think the best way i can put it is, his response to when i got upset at him voting me looked like he was acclimating himself to my worldview a little too readily. him getting flaky and paranoid didn't make a lot of sense to me - he had posted such a strong case on skitter and her push on him felt so hollow. and now suddenly they're both angling to vote t3 here, and i have to ask myself, what is going on here? and so i did a quick re-examinition, and his pushes through the game for the most part have had underwhelming logic - the case on skitter is the only time he's had real strong analysis. and it's entirely possible it's the one good case he's had because it's on someone he actually knows is scum. him acting like i could plausibly be scum with T3 at that moment felt very wrong.

i won't say i am fully confident in this being the team, but it is the most concerning to me, because it would mean the difficulty of the game goes from "hard" to "true hellworld", because that is an incredibly tough scumteam, and your worldview is exactly opposite to mine in that case. additionally, t3 if town is just...totally unhelpful and nearly impossible to find. i just...can't imagine i would ever take this angle as mafia, because trying to convince a player their read of the game is 100% wrong is incredibly, incredibly difficult. there are far easier paths to victory here if i am mafia.

---

the question i have to ask you is -

why are you alive?

since random nurse was eliminated, scum have had free reign over the nightkills. If you are alive in ELO, there are two possibilities - scum are either hoping to make you misvote, or they are hoping to get you voted out so they can win. The latter is clearly not the case - i don't think anyone to this point had seriously entertained the possibility of voting you. T3

just

did but i think that came out of literally nowhere.

so, you are here because scum are counting on you to vote wrong. that should tell you, at a minimum, that

one of your reads is wrong.

if pooky/skitter are TvT and scum were hoping to leave them alive so they would tunnel each other (and from your POV i think this is a reasonable concern to have), why does a chicago/T3 team leave you alive, and not brassherald? brass was very open about scumreading pooky, this game is a free win for that team if they simply NK you and let him vote pooky. i don't think that scumteam ever leaves you alive here. and i desperately need you to consider that.

[bloodhail]

i don't think it's improbable at all, based on my late night paranoia a few hours ago.

idk they spent like 7 days of a 10 day day phase where we were going to sleep doing ~this

i think the fact that you were always going to no elim is why it's plausible - i think skitter knows people would not be convinced by her, and she wasn't

trying

especially hard. in a situation like that, distancing is pretty free

again i'm not fully confident that's the team, but i would say right now to me it's something like 65/35?

[bloodhail]

and as for the second bit - well, i hadn't done that at that moment in time. obviously you could say that i'm doing that now and i wouldn't dispute that. however, i want to emphasize - if i am mafia, the game is won for me if i get one to vote each other, but it can happen either today or tomorrow. i do not need to protect T3, i bus the shit out of him because him existing is an immense liability to any scumteam. in my first game on this account i threw him under the bus on day 1 because his play jeopardized the entire team, and i leveraged that to protect the rest of my teammates

this is kind of - when i first joined the game i was taking it easy because although i think skitter is mafia and you disagree with me, it seemed possible there would be support for votes on her anyway. and if not, getting votes on T3 wouldn't be hard. but last night I was struck with the vision of a true hellworld game, and that terrifies me. i have a lot more to say to you, but it's going to take me a while to write it.

i shouldn't have quoted that bit specifically as i wasn't trying to imply you 'lied' because future actions didn't match past comments or whatever sorry

it's just like, bussing t3 and then playing another whole day where you're not even guaranteed or anything vs simply going for the win here with hours on the clock while you could also fallback to that later like if it doesn't work you can still just eliminate t3 play tomorrow, yeah?

and i know you're up for the challenge but also you believe enough to just go for things like that

not really i don't think - i am incredibly confident in my ability to win a F3 as mafia, the one time i lost there in a forum game was because i was mechanically outed

in my position, were i mafia with T3, if I simply bus the shit out of him here, i would estimate i have at minimum a 50% chance of getting skitter and pooky to give me hammer (i would probably wager it as being higher, but let's be conservative here)

whereas if i go all in trying to stop t3 from getting voted today, i have maybe a 10% chance of getting you to change your mind and adjust your worldview? maybe like 25% chance to get one of skitter or pooky to vote the other? because you're here and more likely to take them down, make them paranoid. so maybe 35% (i know that's not how math works but this is all shorthand anyway). regardless, it's a lower percentage than in the first scenario, i think inarguably. and then if t3 loses the 1v1 and goes down, i look like shit the next day and i get voted out probably 90% of the time.

so in the first scenario i estimate my chance of winning at 50%, where in the second my chances are 41.5% - i think this is a very conservative estimate and the gap between them would actually be much higher, but i'm trying to be accommodating to your perspective. regardless, the former 'bus T3' strategy is the +EV one, by a fairly decent margin. trying to play for the win today as mafia is risky, and i wouldn't be trying it. but i am town and i have to argue the perspective that seems the most real to me - i can't take the easy path because there is only one correct solution to the game.

[bloodhail]

I am not mafia >.>
Imagine the oddness you felt from pooky last night

The entire game
He's just been so weird ....

i mean, i'll be honest

if you are town you haven't really demonstrated it to me, and i feel like you are capable of doing so? it's been very hard for me to see your perspective, you've given your reasoning but it's kind of simple and i don't know that you've tried to solve me here like i'd expect.

but if you are the one crossvoting i am willing to hear you out and let you make your case, i'm not automatically voting or anything. this probably comes across as manipulative but i don't know another way to say it.

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medeia - i have to ask - you have suggested that the interactions between chicago and T3 could have been a distancing routine. you also mentioned previous experience with chicago in a newbie game where he was mafia. i just went to check, and how he treated his partner there was

completely unlike

how he treated T3 this game. I have to ask - why do you think that would possibly be partnered? while it's possible he'd try to change things, since he got caught out on his play around his partner that game (i'm assuming - haven't confirmed), it's generally incredibly rare for players to do something like a complete 180 in their tactics as scum. most players don't evolve that fast, people's minds don't work that way. for the most part people's tendencies are very slow to change.

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if i was mafia with skitter we would have just told medeia to vote ct when she was begging us to vote that slot off at f5

like the slot looked flaked from game and medeia was like we need to kill this slot b4 it gets replaced and both me and skitter were online so uh why would we even bother dragging this out.

shrug, it's possible and i admit it's a point in your favor but i also think caution doesn't cost you much as scum there - if you go all in there's a risk town gets paranoid but if you act cautious they might just go ahead and do it anyway. i just saw ydrasse as scum pump the brakes when i was pushing a town to start of melo and i misread her because of that - so i can't in good conscience clear you off that. i know also in terms of personality you are not ydrasse and you're generally more likely to go for the throat and take a win when it's presented to you but i still would not feel comfortable clearing you off of something like that

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did u even read how medeia was talking to me/skitter

there was no paranoia

she was practically begging us to yeet your slot before replacement

yeah, of course i saw it - it was one of the first things i commented on when i replaced in because my initial gut view of it was that it was scummy from her

i still don't feel comfortable clearing you on that basis - i hope you can understand this from me

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I never at any point this game thought pooky was actually solving

Probably sums up my issue with him

Or even like cared abt the outcome of any of the flips

Like if he's town he does have that vibe early on but usually at some point he switches to solving/winning/need to get it right mode
(And that's when i can start to townrwad him)

He never did that here

okay - that's a little more interesting to me than "pooky scum because wrong" - that type of argument is unpersuasive to me because it gets said on me and it pisses me off cuz im not that good. idk, i probably need to reread him

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medeia - i have to ask - you have suggested that the interactions between chicago and T3 could have been a distancing routine. you also mentioned previous experience with chicago in a newbie game where he was mafia. i just went to check, and how he treated his partner there was

completely unlike

how he treated T3 this game. I have to ask - why do you think that would possibly be partnered? while it's possible he'd try to change things, since he got caught out on his play around his partner that game (i'm assuming - haven't confirmed), it's generally incredibly rare for players to do something like a complete 180 in their tactics as scum. most players don't evolve that fast, people's minds don't work that way. for the most part people's tendencies are very slow to change.

chicagotypewriter's approach to the readslist seemed very different from his town games like the focus on reevaluating rvs read and other thoughts being withheld and such seemed unnatural for him

and i was looking specifically for if they were potentially partnered and not fully considering how chicagotypewriter had previously approached partners, though i do not know if the conclusion would have been all that different as it being possible felt more likely than scum!pooky taking path of most resistance i guess

okay, i get the stuff about seeming different, not much i can do there unfortunately

hat do you mean by 'path of most resistance' though?

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the question i have to ask you is - why are you alive? since random nurse was eliminated, scum have had free reign over the nightkills. If you are alive in ELO, there are two possibilities - scum are either hoping to make you misvote, or they are hoping to get you voted out so they can win. The latter is clearly not the case - i don't think anyone to this point had seriously entertained the possibility of voting you. T3 just did but i think that came out of literally nowhere.

so, you are here because scum are counting on you to vote wrong. that should tell you, at a minimum, that one of your reads is wrong. if pooky/skitter are TvT and scum were hoping to leave them alive so they would tunnel each other (and from your POV i think this is a reasonable concern to have), why does a chicago/T3 team leave you alive, and not brassherald? brass was very open about scumreading pooky, this game is a free win for that team if they simply NK you and let him vote pooky. i don't think that scumteam ever leaves you alive here. and i desperately need you to consider that.

i think latter would almost never be the case, like if t3/chicagotypewriter they had no actual plan for winning the game and were just hoping town would lose it, and if skitter or pooky is a scums they'd just be betting against me solving it and trying to get me voted out and in doing so just giving me the solve would be ????????? like i may be generally useless but i cannot imagine either of them thinking pushing me would be best course of action or, like, pleasant i guess

okay so reasons i can think of that i am alive

could be that i am pocketed by skitter like you say

could also be that someone wanted me to think this and play towards my natural inclination for paranoia (very unlikely from t3 or chicagotypewriter but possible for pooky)

could be that the mechanical implications of killing me / confirming i am town and such would have implicated chicagotypewriter (you)

which like, impossible from your perspective but yeah

could also be to give impression of such, but that just seems like questionable course of action

like skitter was the only one generally considering 3 town pr world so would probably have killed her if playing towards this goal while leaving me alive?

but again, nightkill analysis +/

which like, you say chicagotypewriter never leaves me alive but the mechanical implications thing seems very possible to me

i'm not, like, really sure they would care about the mechanical implications, honestly

(and personally - a checker is such a neutral value role that i have not considered it to be a plus in town's favor at all since i joined this game. it barely does anything. the bulletproof existing alongside the jailkeeper is actually a

negative

to town, if anything, because it creates ambiguity when a nightkill is blocked and prevents the town from having any true information. that was likely the design intent and if anything the checker might be compensation for that.

but even if they did - let's entertain that for a moment. chicago going down, if scum, does not lose scum the game. the scum team can still win it in f3. so i don't think a team with CT on it fears him getting outed by your dying and leaves you alive even if you have the solve.

a t3/chicago team that has been excessively distancing since page 1 is probably

happy

with chicago being seen as

de facto

outed, because it would set t3 up very, very well to endgame

but you're also kind of having it both ways with your logic - you're thinking scum could have been doing elaborate distancing from early on but then made nightkills with very little care or thought, and i don't really think those ideas fit together

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hat do you mean by 'path of most resistance' though?

if chicagotypewriter was town then skitter or pooky would have to be a scums with t3 or eachother, and skitter seemed likely town to me so scum!pooky would have had to have been trying for complicated endgame instead of kill me eliminate you

is it that complicated? brass fosed him, sheep also had at one point although the read had cooled off. taking out brass who could be against him seems path of least resistance enough, even if brass was wrong on CT. and, like, you nearly

did

eliminate chicagotypewriter so i don't see how it's complicated at all

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this is a post, i guess

doesn't really prove anything since t3 is not really here and not really playing the game but acknowledging the vote

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not that anyone believed that in the first place, but yes

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oh wow i got fucking owned

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yeah i don't think i was ever getting there on medeia

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oh wow i got fucking owned

im glad you came just to get owned with me rofl

losing games is what i do best

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I knew something didn't make sense even withh this solve

Mediea played spectacularly
Good anti-distancing day1

Explains why you were egging on the ct vote

yeah ugh i even called that out when i jumped in but i got too tunneled

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Peta still don't know what u were scumreading me over lol

i just, like, thought your approach to the game was scummy in terms of how you were pushing people/the way you were expressing townreads seemed informed in terms of the confidence without much behind it

the sad thing is a week ago when i was reading the game before replacing in i thought you were town

i just biased myself on my replace in and got overconfident in my ability to read you

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Yeah this was one of the games where one of my assumptions was wrong.
Ans things didn't fit but idk where i was going wrong

I don't think i was getting to that solve today

and yeah i don't think we get there but if we had just killed T3 i think at a minimum it becomes slightly more suspicious why she's alive in final 3

but i'm just as much to blame as anyone there for getting paranoid and squicking out of that vote

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Fwiw i was v close to just doing t3 until you startes talking to medeia abt picking between me/pooky

yeah i know i'm absolutely aware i influenced that, sorry

i just did not play well at all, i panicked very badly

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i really did think this was just a dead in the water scum slot and i wouldn't have to try at all

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its ok i think you played pretty good but sometimes the other side is just on another level.

Glad you saw your buddies in a deathmatch and parachuted into a nearly certain loss so we could lose together <3

nah i was fuckin bad don't sugarcoat it. like i guess i convinced people not to kill a slot that was dead in the water but that was about it, i wound up completely backwards which is just bad

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yea but this was way more fun missed playing with you

Also same i like playing with u peta

yeah i mean it was fun even if though we got owned

this was just a brief cameo though, i'm still gonna be on a long vacation. will probably mod games in the interim but i need a break from playing

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well effectively you moved the game from one loss state to a different loss state but along the way you pointed out that it was weird that T3 had no push against him at all which is really susp and none of us really picked up on.

I don't think there's anyone who could've replaced in and done a better job, at least we had more of a chance with you than an empty slot

yeah, but i didn't actually follow through on it and chickened out and encouraged a bad cross so in the end it made no difference

granted it was a very difficult spot to replace into in the first place and turning it around would have taken a heroic effort

but when you lose as often as i do, moral victories hold little comfort. if i had been a little better - a little smarter, a little more patient, a little more understanding - i could have gotten there. i could have, at a minimum, gotten t3 voted out and that changes the game dramatically. i'm not sure a player good enough to have saved this game exists presently but i don't doubt some great players from the past could have turned that around. i'm just...not satisfied with telling myself that was the best i could have done and there was nothing i could do differently.

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Peta it's all good
Me/pooky def contributed to this ans got it wrong too (and we had a lot more context/time spent in game than you)

yeah i know i'm just venting it's been a bad few months for me

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love rilo kiley, thanks

you really did play great i completely let my guard down when i was talking to you

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i came to that conclusion and then panicked when people actually agreed with me

frankly i probably set too low a bar for his play as town

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i'm objectively quite poor as town

but difficulty working with people is probably a part of it