(I also scum read bug and 81 and 82 are super anti-associative with bug.)
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I think brightbluebug not having scum reads (see 682) except for a weak "maybe" scum read on charles is scum indicative. It's a lot easier for scum, especially new scum, to come up with town reads than scum reads because you know that everyone is town and being towny. Coming up with scum reads takes *work*. However, as town, I think it's pretty natural to be suspicious and paranoid of people and having no scum reads at all isn't really natural.
this explanation is very hedgy and I think it speaks to not feeling confident in having *believable* scum readsIn post 697, brightbluebug wrote: those on my read list are just ones who have made posts that really stuck out to me/ones i managed to interpret. i don’t have time / can’t read through the entire thread several times and take notes to get specific reads on everybody, and without specific reads on everybody/anybody i’m not confident enough in anything to accuse any particular person as scum or engage in discussion about someone i don’t have enough opinions on
brightbluebug seems scared to scum read anyone without having a believable enough read, and I think that is much more likely to come from scum. and I think if you combine this with brightbluebug's 686 where they say they aren't talking because they don't know what to talk about, it speaks to someone who is content *not* to make ripples or form scum reads.
really quick I just want to draw attention to this reads list with gumiguy on it. this list is missing a lot of players! Most of the players that make it on the list are either high posters or people who are talked about a lot... with the notable exception of Gumiguy. why exactly is gumiguy on this readslist but players like black or afrayed knott are not?In post 682, brightbluebug wrote: strongest townreads: adante
slightly less strong but probably still town: bob, dannflor, hutao
null/leaning town: animatedwiz, gumiguy
null/leaning scum: charles maybe
everyone else i do not have enough thoughts on. this was done upon a brief skimthrough of the thread
here is a gumiguy reads list. one fun thing is the phrase "I'd like to see more from them" or some variation thereof is used for both brightbluebug and bob3141. in my experience, this type of phrasing is used A LOT for SvS reads. for some reason it is a very natural thing for scum to say about other scum. it gives you leeway to change your read and hedges just the right amount without actually attacking or putting any pressure on the slot. I don't think it's a coincidence that gumiguy ended up using the same language for both reads.In post 482, Gumiguy wrote:Ah, fair.In post 480, Black wrote: I want the reasons behind the reads more than anything
brightbluebug - null. They haven't posted all too much about their own thoughts, mostly just asking questions about other peoples' reads.I'd like to see a bit more from them.
Charles510 - null. I'm just not sure how to read him.
Dannflor - town. The way he's been playing seems like he's trying to figure out the game. I think he believes what he's saying.
Hu Tao - town/null. They seem really focused on BlackStar, in a way that feels like a town with a strong scumread on someone. It's possible they're scum, but I don't see it as being likely. Actually, I think town/null describes my read on them better.
Andante - town. As I mentioned earlier, I generally tend to see aggression as towny, and that hasn't changed. Her playstyle just seems too... confident? for scum.
AnimatedWiz - scum. See 218.
bob3141 - town. His initial posts still feel town, where he was focused on pointing out bad logic.I'd like to see more from him, but what he has posted still reads as town to me.
Afrayed Knott - null. Not sure how to read them as well.
pisskop - IC
BlackStar - null. Third person I'm not sure of how to read... wonderful.
Merlyn - null. I haven't seen enough of her to be confident in a read.
Black - town. Her actions over the game overall seem to have been done in town's best interest. I'm not sure how to describe it, but her posts seem genuine.
I don't town read gumiguy's refusal to take a stance on Afrayed Knott either. While generally, I think people saying "I don't know" can be townie, I'd think with multiple people practically begging gumiguy to try to come up with something, and gumiguy previously stating a few times that they were going to try playing more active and confident, it rings a bit performative.
finally, bob I think has been kinda LAMIST. There's the hammering Afrayed Knott that Andante has noted already. but also the early game argument with andante about pre-flip associations doesn't read like bob was actually looking to discern andante's alignment. It looks like bob is just giving a lecture on best mafia practices and that is a very useful way to fill post space as scum, because it avoids giving actual content while still looking towny and productive on the surface.
posts like 48 are also just kind of LAMIST and posting to post.
83 reminds me of how i would shade my partners as scum.
I think bob coming back to vote brightbluebug in 491 doesn't make much sense and is very likely to be a bus because bob says pressure there will be best for the game in 506 but completely drops the push after voting blackstar in 510. Even later, bob unvotes entirely in 530 instead of revoting brightbluebug. this push was just entirely dropped which makes the initial post pushing brightbluebug feel pretty performative, especially since bug was getting some widespread heat at the time. bob comes back to voting bug but moves off citing the prod. the whole dance just feels very performative and LAMIST and like bob is pushing bug for optics not to actually eliminate bug.
I also would say that the afrayed wagon building so quickly is more like to be largely town driven than not? I might be biased due to being among the first to case afrayed knott, but I think scum are generally somewhat hesitant to move onto a fast building wagon on town. whereas townies don't care as much about the optics and love to build speed wagons. if my solve is correct, the wagon on afrayed knott was all town. bob immediately framing it as scum driven both feels TMI and a very convenient position for bob to take up pending the Afrayed Knott green flip. then, bob follows it up by assigning brightbluebug town points for it!!!!
which really makes no sense. why would you call out that slot specifically and not the many other slots that were not involved with the wagon.In post 678, bob3141 wrote: fact this happened with the bug slot empty points that slot being statisticaly likely town
anyway, I'd be fine going after any of these three today but I think I'd prefer going brightbluebug first because I'm of the opinion that a red flip there pretty much confirms Charles as town
VOTE: brightbluebug