I have a crackpot theory that mafia this game are Black + one of Gimli/Python.
Now I know you all are going to scream "DE has no original reads!!!!!!!" because apparently the VC has Gimli as top wagon and Python is also a vote. But JSYK I came up with this theory before I saw the VC or all these votes. No I don't have a way to prove this, but ask yourself "if DE is scum that just got attacked for not having original reads, is he really going to do what he is doing now?"
The answer is no because DE is a fucking bad scum player. I have 25% winrate as scum on this site, unlike Black who has roughly 100% winrate as scum. Just as a rough estimate.
Anyway, where were we? Oh yeah, I was supposed to explain my crackpot theory. Let's start.
First of all, my case on Black:
I'm still not 100% convinced Timmer is town but tbh I can see the case for each one of the "newbies" being LHF. So I decided to look at the more experienced players, and I get the feeling that Black is being townread for... not a lot? Like if I actually read her posts in depth, I see exactly what Python described about scum!Black - a lot of agreeable posts but nothing outstandingly townie. It's actually ridiculous that she's being this townread for basically repeating "Comet is town", reacting to a bunch of posts calling them weird, and that's pretty much it.
Like if you actually look at how Black reacted to:
My fake push on her
Python's trollhammer
Gimli's unvote
It's a bunch of commentary that doesn't actually commit to any reads.
Another thing that pinged me is the readlist in 119 which just sucks.
But what REALLY tipped me off on black was this post:
Spoiler:
In post 501, Black wrote:
378 and 384 - I kinda like these posts by DE. They feel like actual attempts to sort VIP and Timmer
In post 386, Aneninen wrote:
Still, there's one thing that disturbs me.
Python's "trollhammer" gave a lot of momentum to this game. Why do you think it was a good timing to do as you described? Especially since there are still players who's given zero reaction on my wagon or the "trollhammer". (Why is it called "meme" anyway?)
I was thinking something similar. DE said he was trying to spice things up by having people do something, but his whole "let's build some wagons" thing happened right after Python's fake hammer. I think DE even said something like the fake hammer brought the game alive so I'm not sure why DE felt like he had to do something there to spice things up. I like that VIP noticed this too
I like Afrayed's 388. This just feels like a genuine summary of the game from his POV. It seems like he's considering things and altering his view based on those things and I find that townie
I also like 391 and Afrayed's self-awareness that he's defending himself a lot and that people seem to find that scummy. Fwiw I think townies defend themselves all the time. It's pretty NAI. I think the way you defend yourself can be AI though
In post 392, Afrayed Knott wrote:
What did I do to fall off your list… between these two posts. I haven’t posted in all until now. Or are you completing someone else’s list?
I think you're misunderstanding Comet here. 305 was going over the votes on the VIP wagon
395 seems fine but the beginning of the post doesn't quite match the vote. If Kittie/Timmer/Comet are clear choices then why is the rest of the post and the vote about VIP?
In post 400, DragonEater70 wrote:
If you want you can also call it a policy lim - do you really want town!VIP in F5? I don't. But again this probably has >rand chance to flip scum, and considering the current gamestate I'd take that over a completely random person.
I don't like this. It feels like DE is already apologizing for a misfade
In post 442, DragonEater70 wrote:
Like I don't think anything actually alignment indicative happened before page 16 if I'm being honest, and you won't be getting any associatives from anything before that.
Do you actually believe this?
I like 452[post] and [post]453 by DE. I don't think mediating an argument is town indicative but this particular case feels like it. I don't understand the motive behind scum!DE posting these instead of just letting the momentum build on Afrayed. Afrayed/DE could be a partnered I guess but I think it would be risky for DE to stick his neck out like this
In post 464, Cometbright wrote:
I feel like I did pretty clearly state why what he did has scum-alignment in #432. Now yes, he can say this was a mistake and that he actually hadn't completed that post before voting but as I said in #433 this isn't something we can confirm is town!Knott realising he made a mistake and clarifying or if it's scum!Knott realising he made a mistake and is now coming up with a reason for it.
Exactly this. I'm assuming you didn't get the same genuine vibes from Afrayed's posting there as I did?
In post 465, Cometbright wrote:
I dunno, maybe I'm being too harsh/laser-focused here? It's not like we have anything really that strong to go off so this combined with the statistics I mentioned in #419 and the fact that Knott is going to be a hard read this game makes me comfortable with a vote on him.
I think you have a decent point and it feels like you actually believe this instead of you just pushing it based on an agenda. I don't think the case is very strong but we don't really have anything strong atm
I like A's little reread in 467 and 468 and I like the conclusion. Tim feels really lurky
In post 470, Afrayed Knott wrote:
There is one other thing here that erks me greatly, I have had a scum vibe from Comet for a while and her presence on my list has nothing whatsoever to do with her vote on me.
Why haven't you voted for Comet then? Your VIP vote feels a little weirder now after reading this comment
Just ctrl+f "de"/"dragon" in that post, and you will see Black basically saying that she didn't like a bunch of posts I made but also liked a bunch of posts I made and gives like level 0 analysis of what she liked and didn't like "cool you are trying to sort another player, not cool you are preflipping VIP as town" which just doesn't stick out at all. And there's conclusion on my slot. IDK what even is the point of that post. Then I asked her if she thinks I'm scummy for doing something that she considers "sometimes scummy" and her answer is this:
In post 600, Black wrote:
I think you are asking me for a meta read on you here and I don't really have one
This is a laughable hedge.
I feel like Black has been just coasting and blending in without any attempt to find scum.
ALSO, I feel like she's been chopping up conversation, A LOT. You know how Comet and Gimli complained about this gamestate sucking and scum being able to just misfade a random townie easily? Black's posting has been designed to stop as many wagons as possible from occurring, so as to get town to give up and just drift into not solving the game and doing a random compromise vote.
In post 701, DragonEater70 wrote:
It's actually ridiculous that she's being this townread for basically repeating "Comet is town", reacting to a bunch of posts calling them weird, and that's pretty much it.
This seems like you should have an issue with the people townreading me tbh
In post 701, DragonEater70 wrote:
Like if you actually look at how Black reacted to:
My fake push on her
Python's trollhammer
Gimli's unvote
It's a bunch of commentary that doesn't actually commit to any reads.
I rarely commit to reads early in a game. Why do you think this is alignment indicative for me?
In post 701, DragonEater70 wrote:
Another thing that pinged me is the readlist in 119 which just sucks.
It was a catchup post. I was quoting and responding to things as I read them so yeah it makes perfect sense for me to like some of your stuff and not like others
In post 701, DragonEater70 wrote:
I feel like Black has been just coasting and blending in without any attempt to find scum.
Obviously I'm biased but I disagree with this assessment of my play this game
In post 701, DragonEater70 wrote:
ALSO, I feel like she's been chopping up conversation, A LOT. You know how Comet and Gimli complained about this gamestate sucking and scum being able to just misfade a random townie easily? Black's posting has been designed to stop as many wagons as possible from occurring, so as to get town to give up and just drift into not solving the game and doing a random compromise vote.
Can you elaborate on this point? How am I trying to stop wagons from forming?
In post 705, Black wrote:
Why not? This just feels like confirmation bias
It is.
But confirmation bias is not
necessarily
wrong here.
If you can't explain why town doesn't make those posts then yeah I would consider it to be wrong
In post 704, DragonEater70 wrote:
I will explain my case on Gimli/Python later MAYBE, but tbh I just wanna lim Black ASAP and I'm sure this flips red 100% of time.
In post 705, Black wrote:
Why not? This just feels like confirmation bias
Can you like actually give a read on my slot if you are town?
Which is it? Am I 100% scum or do you think I could be town?
This whole push feels like an attempt to get me to say a definitive read on you and that's just not happening. You're hard to read. Even this push is hard to read. You came in, noticed you were being voted, acknowledged that you don't have original reads, and then ignored your own promise to read and catch up just so you could push an original read (me). Then you used stuff from page 5 in your case when I feel like if you really thought my readslist was awful then you would have said something then. It feels a little forced, just like your early Comet push, but I'm not convinced you wouldn't do these things as town
You're Scummy! I'm Afrayed Knott..
