Open 893 - 09:12 - Postgame

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Sup nerds and Gamma

It's good to be back

VOTE: Puffalicious

[ssbm_Kyouko]

btw I thought this is what crabapples looked like, but it seems like the majority of the results show little red ones like in the pfp

Spoiler:

[ssbm_Kyouko]

That's bold - was that you both posting once each or just one of you? Who is 30 if different people?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

unlucky

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I'm feeling this actually
VOTE: Celebloki

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Just vibes really.

Anyone else familiarized themselves at all with previous runs of the setup? I'm mostly skimming them. The stats show 50-50 but I feel this should be more townsided than that stat shows. In 3 of the 4 mafia wins, a town PR was eliminated. Twice on D1, and once on D2 - never in ELO/MELO. Let's not have that happen this time.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Eh it's a bit of a shitshow really, upon further digging:

In one game House opens the game fakeclaiming Town Rolecop as VT which causes Save The Dragons, the actual Town Tracker, to get into a situation where he is eliminated D1. House's replacement is for some reason NKed right before ELO after that fakeclaim which could have easily lost Town the game on D3. They ended up losing in D4 ELO after catching scum D3.

In another maf win, the Town Babysitter self-hammered on D2 near deadline stating their death would give info after the other TPR was already NKed N1. So... if you're worried about getting deadlined as PR maybe claim earlier than normal to give people time to wagon elsewhere?

Finally there is a game where the Vanilla Cop just doesn't claim on D1 for some reason and is Eliminated. Like in that situation obviously you should claim as there is a 50-50 shot that a town doctor can protect you that night.

So let's use our noggins in this one please

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I did briefly consider if hypoclaiming (everyone picks a town role off the clock and then claims a target/result at the beginning of D2, the actual town PR's could claim their real results and then if they die) would be useful here, and I think it might be

unless the clock specifically landed on 5.

Would require everyone to be on board with it, though.

Can you expand on this? I hadn't considered hypoclaiming before you pointed that out, but now that you have I've noticed something. (waiting to post it for now)

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Okay, reasonable enough. I think any protectives hypoclaiming would feed more info to scum anyways.

I do think there is merit to hypoclaiming the roles adjacent to Mafia Rolecop - that is located on 3 and 9 so hypoclaiming as though you are one of 2, 4, 8, or 10 could work. It would not give mafia any more information about the roles in the setup than they already have, though they could fish out VTs that provide a result they know to be false. For example if scum!Mizuki performs the NK and I claim Followed Mizuki, she went nowhere - then scum!Mizuki would know I'm not a real Follower. Possibly I could still be a protective hypoclaiming as investigative but scum would know I can't guilty them in that scenario.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

55 was a response to 46. Too lazy to pedit on phone

[ssbm_Kyouko]

That is a point against it but also Maf already have a 50/50 shot of guessing the exact setup since they can infer it from their PR.

I don't think that's true. Due to how the clock could work, I think there would be 3 different combinations of Town PR's that it could be depending on the Mafia's PR. Even more if the Mafia have a Rolecop.

This is correct. Maf have a 1/6 chance of guessing the setup from Rolecop POV and a 1/3 chance from either of the other PRs. Since the "other PRs" and the "rolecop" scenarios are equally likely we can just average this to a 25% chance to guess the setup outright (but in reality it is either 16.67% or 33% depending on what PR they got.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think the ideal play for D2 is to do a pre-hypoclaim "categorical" claim where everyone claims whether or not they have a hard guilty. A hard guilty here would be a Rolecop that discovers a Rolecop/Roleblocker, or a Follower that sees their target kill. Assuming everyone claims they do NOT have a guilty, then we can proceed to hypoclaiming as though we are all one of the 4 roles that surrounds Mafia Rolecop. This will allow anyone who is actually on 2/4/8/10 to claim their results for post-flip analysis without giving too much away to scum in the moment. On the plus side, in the case of a hard guilty, there is a 50% chance that the other TPR is a protective that can save the player that claimed the hard guilty for more results D3 onward.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Wait I'm mistaken, a rolecop that discovers a roleblocker is not a hard guilty upon further inspection. Town Rolecop can be in the same setup as Town Roleblocker

pedit: yeah Thomith sees it

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Okay, reasonable enough. I think any protectives hypoclaiming would feed more info to scum anyways.

I do think there is merit to hypoclaiming the roles adjacent to Mafia Rolecop - that is located on 3 and 9 so hypoclaiming as though you are one of 2, 4, 8, or 10 could work. It would not give mafia any more information about the roles in the setup than they already have, though they could fish out VTs that provide a result they know to be false. For example if scum!Mizuki performs the NK and I claim Followed Mizuki, she went nowhere - then scum!Mizuki would know I'm not a real Follower. Possibly I could still be a protective hypoclaiming as investigative but scum would know I can't guilty them in that scenario.

This strat isn’t great because based on the one player that is on 1/5/7/11 mafia can solve the setup

Those players are meant to fakeclaim the way a VT would during the hypoclaim and pretend they are a 2/4/8/10. Post-flip of the 1/5/7/11 they might know the exact setup if they can POE the actual result of an unflipped 2/4/8/10 from amongst the hypoclaims but I think as long as everyone sticks to 2/4/8/10 it should be +EV for town

[ssbm_Kyouko]

All this hypoclaim business is most likely only ideal if we see VT Elim > VT NK btw. If something else happens it will need to be rethought based on the info available.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

What are you thinking otherwise about the wagon on you at present - ignoring the setup spec?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Hmmmmm

[ssbm_Kyouko]

@Puff Why is Celebloki town

[ssbm_Kyouko]

@Puff Why is Celebloki town

Seems towny based on their response to what I asked.

I felt like the townread on Celebloki was too easily given and maybe even counterintuitive when I posted 93. It gives me the feeling of TMI. This answer does nothing to change my mind about that either.

Crab has not posted anything past their alt-slip, so their very much a null at this point.

If I can ask, what exactly do you hope to gain from questioning people's RVS votes?

Just testing somethin.

I think Celebloki is town btw.

As of 91 Puff has a TR on Celebloki. I didn't really see much in the way of interaction between them and what I did see was 2 questions in 81 and 86 (below).

I have a really hard time reading setup speculation without my eye's glazing over, but I think I ultimately followed it. I do think I generally get a town read on ssbm because of it though. Maybe also Mizuki.

UNVOTE:

Are you town reading them because of the setup talk? Those type of stuff are nai.

- A

We see Puff question why Celebloki TRs me. At this time I am voting Celebloki and it's not RVS (40). I found it a little odd this wasnt mentioned. Unsure if it was noticed. If not, it tells me she was not paying attention/did not care that I was voting Celebloki which reinforces for me that scum!Puff may be TMIing town!Celebloki, but that is to be seen after flips.

VOTE: CrabApple

Crabs should not be apples as well.

Do you still think CrabApple is scummy after 3 pages?

Heyyy
VOTE: shaddowez

Do you still think Shaddowez is scummy after 3 pages?

Been a long long while since I've played one of these so looking forward to getting going.

VOTE: Cobblerfone

Do you still think Cobblerfone is scummy after 3 pages?

I'm constantly in a state of looking up the many acronyms used on the wiki.

VOTE: Mizuki

Crabs are people, clams are people.

Do you still think Mizuki is scummy after 3 pages?

The other question comes in 86 and note that this is after Puff's first question was answered in 83. In Celebloki's answer to Puff's first question, he indicates that he is, if anything, possibly TRing Mizuki (as well as me) because of the setup talk. Puff clearly did not notice or care about Celebloki's answer which shows to me that she was interacting as a means to the end of a TR because she knows from the start Celebloki is town.

I have a really hard time reading setup speculation without my eye's glazing over, but I think I ultimately followed it. I do think I generally get a town read on ssbm because of it though. Maybe also Mizuki.

UNVOTE:

May I ask why this makes you town read ssbm/Mizuki? Was it the way they went about it/responded to it, or just the fact they were trying to figure out how the setup could work/how hypoclaiming could get it to work in our favour?

Yeah the latter, it just seemed like a townie mindset to approach it from. I didn't feel it was just setup talk, but how town could maximize the use of it.

Here's that first answer where he says he maybe also TRs Mizuki before Puff asks if Celebloki still scumreads Mizuki

Well, my vote on Mizuki was an RVS vote referencing the crab talk. I removed my vote when I said I found the discussion between her and ssbm to have town vibes. If I'm honest I haven't really read anyone yet as particularly scummy, aside from the mechanic talk I haven't seen much outside of RVS. Your wagon seems to mostly be an RVS wagon.

Feels to me like 91 where Puff states the original TR is in reaction to this answer. And it shows Celebloki's lack of understanding as well that Puff's wagon is not actually RVS anymore. Feels like by this time Puff should be understanding that based on the voters on their wagon's posting about 30 that it's not really RVS and if anything Puff should be picking up that Celebloki is maybe not paying the most attention to the wagon (not a town trait). I think scum!Puff is trying to latch on to a sympathetic townie here maybe.

VOTE: Puff (this is E2 with the CA vote moving to Thomith)

[ssbm_Kyouko]

@ssbm_Kyouko

Since you said you felt gobs tr on Celebloki was tmi then what did you think of his reaction bait?

The post of mine you quoted I don't understand what you're saying. You said you saw it odd I did not notice or wasn't paying attention you voted Celebloki and why should I react to your vote on him when I wasn't even town reading him? A null slot and your vote on him with little to no reason doesn't need any responding to when it has nothing to do with my slot. Celebloki is the one who got a vote from you and if he wants he can choose what action he takes.

The paragraph where you talk about #86, you said gob ignored the answer to #83. gob did not make #83 and it was me who made that post which was yesterday and I come back today and noticed that post. You are getting our heads mixed up.

- A

I thought gob hadn't posted yet as of my last post. Aside from the first one or two posts you made before you noted you forgot to sign, I assume any unsigned posts are gob's? I'll have to reread the full interactions between Adorable and Celebloki separately from gob and Celebloki.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

UNVOTE:

[ssbm_Kyouko]

@Puff Why is Celebloki town

Seems towny based on their response to what I asked.

I felt like the townread on Celebloki was too easily given and maybe even counterintuitive when I posted 93. It gives me the feeling of TMI. This answer does nothing to change my mind about that either.

Spoiler:

Crab has not posted anything past their alt-slip, so their very much a null at this point.

If I can ask, what exactly do you hope to gain from questioning people's RVS votes?

Just testing somethin.

I think Celebloki is town btw.

As of 91 Puff has a TR on Celebloki. I didn't really see much in the way of interaction between them and what I did see was 2 questions in 81 and 86 (below).

I have a really hard time reading setup speculation without my eye's glazing over, but I think I ultimately followed it. I do think I generally get a town read on ssbm because of it though. Maybe also Mizuki.

UNVOTE:

Are you town reading them because of the setup talk? Those type of stuff are nai.

- A

We see Puff question why Celebloki TRs me. At this time I am voting Celebloki and it's not RVS (40). I found it a little odd this wasnt mentioned. Unsure if it was noticed. If not, it tells me she was not paying attention/did not care that I was voting Celebloki which reinforces for me that scum!Puff may be TMIing town!Celebloki, but that is to be seen after flips.

VOTE: CrabApple

Crabs should not be apples as well.

Do you still think CrabApple is scummy after 3 pages?

Heyyy
VOTE: shaddowez

Do you still think Shaddowez is scummy after 3 pages?

Been a long long while since I've played one of these so looking forward to getting going.

VOTE: Cobblerfone

Do you still think Cobblerfone is scummy after 3 pages?

I'm constantly in a state of looking up the many acronyms used on the wiki.

VOTE: Mizuki

Crabs are people, clams are people.

Do you still think Mizuki is scummy after 3 pages?

The other question comes in 86 and note that this is after Puff's first question was answered in 83. In Celebloki's answer to Puff's first question, he indicates that he is, if anything, possibly TRing Mizuki (as well as me) because of the setup talk. Puff clearly did not notice or care about Celebloki's answer which shows to me that she was interacting as a means to the end of a TR because she knows from the start Celebloki is town.

I have a really hard time reading setup speculation without my eye's glazing over, but I think I ultimately followed it. I do think I generally get a town read on ssbm because of it though. Maybe also Mizuki.

UNVOTE:

May I ask why this makes you town read ssbm/Mizuki? Was it the way they went about it/responded to it, or just the fact they were trying to figure out how the setup could work/how hypoclaiming could get it to work in our favour?

Yeah the latter, it just seemed like a townie mindset to approach it from. I didn't feel it was just setup talk, but how town could maximize the use of it.

Here's that first answer where he says he maybe also TRs Mizuki before Puff asks if Celebloki still scumreads Mizuki

Well, my vote on Mizuki was an RVS vote referencing the crab talk. I removed my vote when I said I found the discussion between her and ssbm to have town vibes. If I'm honest I haven't really read anyone yet as particularly scummy, aside from the mechanic talk I haven't seen much outside of RVS. Your wagon seems to mostly be an RVS wagon.

Feels to me like 91 where Puff states the original TR is in reaction to this answer. And it shows Celebloki's lack of understanding as well that Puff's wagon is not actually RVS anymore. Feels like by this time Puff should be understanding that based on the voters on their wagon's posting about 30 that it's not really RVS and if anything Puff should be picking up that Celebloki is maybe not paying the most attention to the wagon (not a town trait). I think scum!Puff is trying to latch on to a sympathetic townie here maybe.

VOTE: Puff (this is E2 with the CA vote moving to Thomith)

Spoiling most of the quote for brevity's sake.

I had thought all of the posts quoted in 108 above were by Adorable and actually was thinking only she had posted so far, even though on rereading everything I see I asked and was answered that gob made 30. Sorry gob if I referred to you as 'she', I was referring to the slot as they and to Adorable as she.
The TR is easily given and I do stand by that, but in light of recognizing there are 2 players posting here, I don't see anything counterintuitive anymore. Town can give easy TRs, that alone is not always scum-indicative. I thought what I was seeing was scum giving an easy TR and simultaneously countering their own reasoning for the TR, which is why I thought the TR was TMI.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

@ssbm_Kyouko

Since you said you felt gobs tr on Celebloki was tmi then what did you think of his reaction bait?

The post of mine you quoted I don't understand what you're saying. You said you saw it odd I did not notice or wasn't paying attention you voted Celebloki and why should I react to your vote on him when I wasn't even town reading him? A null slot and your vote on him with little to no reason doesn't need any responding to when it has nothing to do with my slot. Celebloki is the one who got a vote from you and if he wants he can choose what action he takes.

The paragraph where you talk about #86, you said gob ignored the answer to #83. gob did not make #83 and it was me who made that post which was yesterday and I come back today and noticed that post. You are getting our heads mixed up.

- A

Assuming 30 was his reaction bait, I think it got the game moving and alone isn't really AI.

I think that when sorting a null slot it is beneficial to look at their reactions and feelings towards votes against them. Yes I had little to no reason posted in my vote, but it instead of reacting to it directly you might think, when asking why Celebloki TRs me, that you would mention my vote on him as it pertains to my slot. It's not necessary to mention but feels relevant to consider.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

@ssbm_Kyouko

Since you said you felt gobs tr on Celebloki was tmi then what did you think of his reaction bait?

The post of mine you quoted I don't understand what you're saying.

You said you saw it odd I did not notice or wasn't paying attention you voted Celebloki and why should I react to your vote on him when I wasn't even town reading him? A null slot and your vote on him with little to no reason doesn't need any responding to when it has nothing to do with my slot. Celebloki is the one who got a vote from you and if he wants he can choose what action he takes.

The paragraph where you talk about #86, you said gob ignored the answer to #83. gob did not make #83 and it was me who made that post which was yesterday and I come back today and noticed that post. You are getting our heads mixed up.

- A

Assuming 30 was his reaction bait, I think it got the game moving and alone isn't really AI.

I think that when sorting a null slot it is beneficial to look at their reactions and feelings towards votes against them. Yes I had little to no reason posted in my vote, but it instead of reacting to it directly you might think, when asking why Celebloki TRs me, that you would mention my vote on him as it pertains to my slot. It's not necessary to mention but feels relevant to consider.

Not sure I'm wrapping my head correctly around this paragraph. Are you saying you think Puff's reaction to your vote against them was townie or that you're still null on Puff?

Neither. Unsnipping the quote and bolding what I was replying to. It still felt like a relevant question to answer after I'd clarified that I did mix up Puff's heads and retracted the conclusions I'd drawn as a result.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

@ssbm_Kyouko

Since you said you felt gobs tr on Celebloki was tmi then what did you think of his reaction bait?

The post of mine you quoted I don't understand what you're saying. You said you saw it odd I did not notice or wasn't paying attention you voted Celebloki and why should I react to your vote on him when I wasn't even town reading him? A null slot and your vote on him with little to no reason doesn't need any responding to when it has nothing to do with my slot. Celebloki is the one who got a vote from you and if he wants he can choose what action he takes.

The paragraph where you talk about #86, you said gob ignored the answer to #83. gob did not make #83 and it was me who made that post which was yesterday and I come back today and noticed that post. You are getting our heads mixed up.

- A

Assuming 30 was his reaction bait, I think it got the game moving and alone isn't really AI.

I think that when sorting a null slot it is beneficial to look at their reactions and feelings towards votes against them. Yes I had little to no reason posted in my vote, but it instead of reacting to it directly you might think, when asking why Celebloki TRs me, that you would mention my vote on him as it pertains to my slot. It's not necessary to mention but feels relevant to consider.

#86 was the post from gob that looked like a reaction bait when he said afterwards he was testing something and since I saw you say gobs read on Celebloki looked like tmi I wanted to know what was your thoughts on that post of his that looked like a reaction bait which was before his read on Celebloki.

I think I'm slowly starting to understand what you're saying here and it looks like you're wondering why I did not question you're vote on Celebloki instead of a town read on you. Town hunting and forming a town core and voting in the poe can be helpful. If you are town, I wanted to try to understand the town reads on you so that I could remove the player being town read from being in a poe.

- A

86 felt low effort to me and is originally what drew my attention back to your slot. I ended up misreading Puff's ISO entirely as your (Adorable) ISO and then made my "hmmmm" post and decided to question you first before voting you for what I perceived to be an inconsistency in your reasoning, which actually was just you and gob having your own progressions on Celebloki.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Kyouko, what are your takes on Gamma, Elements and Cobb rn?

I'm waiting longer on Gamma. I have a lot of history with her and feel confident in catching scum!Gamma eventually if I'm alive. Null/Town on her so far and is out of my poe for D1 sort of by default because of how I feel about my ability to catch her later on if she is scum. For something more concrete though, I'll say nothing of her's has pinged me so far.

I haven't noticed Elements/CA really yet. From memory I would say they are going with the flow mostly but haven't ISOed.

I've noticed a few people are buzzing about Cobbler and I've been more focused on Puff before Cobbler's most recent posts. I haven't formed much of an opinion on any of Elements, Cobbler, shaddowes, or Thomith yet as I've been phone posting and mostly focusing on Puff today. I have noticed all three have contributed more today so I'll need to read them with more focus now that I've straightened out my previous SR on Puff.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Why are so many people waiting to see the response to post 30?
Feels like an excuse not to play
VOTE: Thomith

Actually I missed this from Elements - I like it. It's worthwhile to point it out. I had the same feeling about myself for a time - like I was "waiting" for more slots to post more. I like that Elements (CA at the time) notices this and points it out. Feels like an effort is being made.

"Why are

so many people waiting

to see the response to post 30?
"Based on

Thomith's comment

about their vote"

These two statements do not align. This is also, again, incredibly reductive of Thomith's posting so far.

I do agree these don't align, but I also think it's a semantic/reasonable difference. I will say things like "so many people" when the tone of the thread feels that way on skimming, and it may just be that a couple of people were loud about it, so in my mind it seems like a lot of people. When questioned about it later and drilling down I can then see my impression was lazy from skimming.

I think Gamma said similar^

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I had a tell on her that worked pretty well for a while, but after I got it wrong in Radio Buzz I told her what it was and I think she is now more aware of it. If I remember right, she was one to overuse phrases like "honestly" or "genuinely" as scum and I could just tell the difference between when she did it as scum versus town.

Now there is no "secret" like there was for a while, now it's more that I have a lot of experience with her and I feel that if she does something out of order I would notice.

In my experience Gamma can get heated/emotional in a way that can easily be mistaken as scum AtE but it is NAI.

I've also been off site for a year or two so my experience may be outdated but like I said I feel prepared for scum!Gamma

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Nyeh!

[ssbm_Kyouko]

The odds of Kyouko voting mafia as town are 7/8 * 2/8 = 14/64

The odds of Kyouko voting mafia as mafia are 1/8 * 8/8 = 8/64

Here are the numbers from an outsider's town POV on my vote (or anyone's random vote) since you keep getting them wrong

Town!Kyouko votes Town!Puff: 6/8 * 5/7 = 30/56.
Town!Kyouko votes scum!Puff: 6/8 * 2/7 = 12/56.
Scum!Kyouko: 2/8 = 14/56

Dont think breaking down the numbers on Puff's alignment are relevant if I'm scum

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I looked at 891 and saw Gamma replaced in, and if I recall correctly she replaced in fairly late in the game. Seems flawed to try to compare these two, and maybe lazy to only compare one game. When I do this sort of thing as town I go through pages of ego and open every game and compare every entrance first to determine if the player has an AI entrance and then to compare it to the entrance in this game. This comparison is shallow and holds no value to me, but I'm not going to hold everyone to my standard of meta-diving.


I do think this is something you can catch scum on more frequently than you might think and I don't think scum!Gamma avoids getting caught in this way, in fact I may have caught her this way before, but I also find Gamma's reactions in 193 and 197 +town for her.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

so in summary, Elements' heart is in the right place, but the execution is flawed and I remain unconvinced

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Because it's lazy and that feels more like town than scum. The alternative is that you're scum scrambling desperately to push Gamma for {arbitrary reasons} and I don't think that makes sense in the gamestate unless the scumteam is exactly {Cobbler, Elements}, and even then that's a stretch because in that case there are still like 3 low-activity slots that could be pressured to divert attention from Cobbler instead.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think if mafia is not pressured they don't throw out an arbitrary scumread. You ask why not but I can't think of a reason "why." Why challenge the status quo as mafia if there is no pressure? This is why I address the possibility of the pressure being on scum!Elements' partner scum!Cobbler, and note that it's a stretch to say that is the case here. It doesn't make sense for scum!Elements to fake that read on Gamma. Maybe it's a poor attempt at distancing, but I don't get that vibe from Gamma's reaction.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Distancing from scum!Gamma to be clear. I think that was clear, but I want to make it so. In any case, nothing strongly points to scum!Elements when I read those posts in this gamestate.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I see, I'm not skilled enough to recognize lazy town for what it is.

I still don't agree there is any reason for scum!elements to be testing the waters on a Gamma wagon or trying to get towncred in this gamestate. Celebloki and shaddowes are still missing and Elements isn't under any pressure imo. Maybe she feels pressured by the comments on her entrance but I don't put stock in that as fake newness because she was posting on an alt, so I didn't consider that when evaluating the original read on Gamma. I would say it's much less likely to be due to that than it is to be due to town looking for something to bite in this gamestate.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I see, I'm not skilled enough to recognize lazy town for what it is.

I still don't agree there is any reason for scum!elements to be testing the waters on a Gamma wagon or trying to get towncred in this gamestate. Celebloki and shaddowes are still missing and Elements isn't under any pressure imo. Maybe she feels pressured by the comments on her entrance but I don't put stock in that as fake newness because she was posting on an alt, so I didn't consider that when evaluating the original read on Gamma. I would say it's much less likely to be due to that than it is to be due to town looking for something to bite in this gamestate.

The point has nothing to do with skill and everything to do with the fact that your confidence in your ability to read the gamestate (and the motivations behind Elements action) feels entirely unwarranted for only being 10 pages in the game, unless you're informed. The scenario's I presented in the previous post were just examples. The points you presented (and are still presenting) essentially amount to trying to read Elements mind, and you said them with such authority that it feels like you're trying to pass them off as though you actually can.

It doesn't take a genius to know that at the time of that post (and still now) the mood is that we're waiting for the less active slots Celebloki and Shaddowes to get more active because nothing so far is sticking now that the situation with Puff had shaken out. Sure there was talk about Cobblerfone and he was one of the less active posters earlier on but nothing was really happening with that wagon I think because the people not voting him were and still are more interested in what shaddowes and Celebloki will have to say on their return. This is what I mean by gamestate - we're all waiting. I am confident that is what is going on and I think most people would agree it is easy to see that is what is happening. I've been keeping up with the thread since the game started so I think the fact the game is 10 pages long is not really relevant. What is happening now has nothing to do with how long the game is.

As for the motivations behind Elements' metadive, I didn't really care at first what they were because I wanted to verify it myself. So I clicked the link to that game and checked Gamma's ISO. I saw it was a replace-in and imo that's not comparable to the start of a game. If Gamma had replaced into this game, sure, go ahead and compare it to 891. But find some more examples of replace-ins and look at them because 2 is not a pattern. There's no better word for it, so I'll say it would be "stupid" of scum to make such a half-assed attempt at starting a push on Gamma in that gamestate (see above). I don't know Elements, but she doesn't strike me as stupid. Therefore, she must been lazy in that moment, because bottom line, that post was either stupid or lazy (with peace and love). Moving on - at this point I have established the post was lazy. I am left to decide if it was made by lazy town or by lazy scum. I ask myself, what would lazy scum be doing right now? The answer is that they would most likely be drifting in this gamestate. There's no pressure on Elements. There's no other reasonable conclusion if you accept the post was lazy and the game is waiting for Celebloki and shaddowes. That leaves lazy town unless we're in a very specific scenario where the only traction in an otherwise stalled game is a wagon on Cobblerfone which means, as I said before, unless the scumteam is specifically Elements and Cobblerfone, the post was made by lazytown!Elements. I'm inclined to accept this without further investigation because I'm of the opinion at least one scum is amongst {shaddowes, Celebloki} mostly due to the current state of the game, which means if I'm right about that the scumteam can't be Elements and Cobblerfone.

I asked you for specific scenarios where Elements would make that post as scum because I conceived only that she would do that if she were stupid or lazy. I don't see the value in making that post from a scum!Elements POV which is why I wanted those examples from you. I don't think any of the examples you provided are especially likely and that is why I remain of the opinion that Elements is town and was being lazy when she meta-dived Gamma.

I am not reading anyone's mind but I am putting myself in scum!Elements' POV to try to make sense of the post and when it doesn't make sense that really only leaves the town!Elements POV. Put yourself there and it makes sense in a stalled gamestate that a town player would like something to "chew on" as I've said before.

And I'm still confident in these reads - why shouldn't I be?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Honestly?

VOTE: ssbm_kyouko

I think pushing up here might be worthwhile.

I dunno if I agree, I think kyouko has responded poorly to pressure in the past, but that could have changed

Poorly is a nice way to put it

[ssbm_Kyouko]

mine

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Elements is firm town for me, shaddowes I get the feeling is >rand scum purely through poe and I doubt the ego post is scummy but I'll look

[ssbm_Kyouko]

By itself no it's not but I remember being bothered that the promised random vote never came the next day - by the time I noticed that he was gone and there were other things to focus on though

[ssbm_Kyouko]

By itself no it's not but I remember being bothered that the promised random vote never came the next day - by the time I noticed that he was gone and there were other things to focus on though

Without double checking, were we not kind of out of RVS by the time he was back? At the least we were definitely into the phase of the day where we were on setup/hypoclaim discussion.

I was curious about this because I just remembered him basically going on V/LA when he got back but I see now why I missed his entry at the time he came back:

55 was a response to 46. Too lazy to pedit on phone

I was on my phone at the time he came in and was tabbing between the game thread and the setup wiki while replying to what Mizuki posted right before shaddowez returned. Then in the preview I just clicked post right away and didn't read what had been posted in the preview. I might have read it soon after but probably didn't think much of it at the time because I don't remember thinking anything of it. Looks like it was an RVS comment on crab apples, an EBWOP, a small mechanical observation about JK, and then 51 I already knew was incorrect if the hypoclaim is done correctly because of being able to claim 2/4/8/10 roles - there's very little room for mafia to get any info from that kind of claim before the PRs are flipped. I think the only thing they can get is "this player, if they are investigative, might have a result on me that doesn't hard guilty me because they tracked me to someone else" - even then there's no way to know if the player was making up the tracker result until they're flipped so it's a safe strat imo. So yeah I didn't notice anything material in those posts and then he went V/LA and at some point later I reread a little and was like "hey, he never voted"

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Honestly, the reason why I'm a little confused is because the votes happened, but the reasoning for them had to be drawn out of Mizuki and Elements, rather than mentioned when the votes originally happened.
I could be reading too much into this though.

IMO that doesn't matter as much on its own. More important if subsequent

What do you mean by this - more important if "subsequent"

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I like Imaginality's catch-up. I'd be curious to know what gob thinks of Imaginality's comments on 204.

VOTE: Cobblerfone

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Hypoclaiming plan, in summary, assuming a town PR is not dead by morning of D2:

Everyone in turn claims whether they have a hard guilty or not

If nobody has a hard guilty, everyone hypoclaims as though they are one of the roles on 2/4/8/10 on the clock in the setup. When hypoclaiming, make sure the result you are claiming could be legit, like if you're pretending to be on 2 dont claim as though a 7 is in the game because it's not possible from 2's POV. Every hypoclaim needs to be believable so it can't be used to POE the TPRs. Also dont hypoclaim a guilty because we're checking for guilties before the hypoclaim so that will also out you as a VT. It is very important that any TPR on 1/5/7/11 claims as though they are on 2/4/8/10 otherwise this would obviously expose you.

Benefits of claiming the guilty first before any hypoclaims is half the time the other TPR is one that can protect the investigative TPR that claimed, and by claiming guilty first, the protective has not outed themselves

Benefits of claiming on 2/4/8/10 is that it does not give scum any info about the setup before flips unless someone claims an inno on scum where scum knows a real PR would have a guilty. In this case it helps scum POE into PR kills/wagons

Benefit of 1/5/7/11 claiming as a 2/4/8/10 - 1/5/7/11s do not have the ability to hard guilty anyone and it is still possible to crumb your actual result/target by using the hypoclaim. For example a doctor could say they tracked X nowhere and after that doctor flips, we can probably assume X was doctored if it would make sense from flipped doctor's POV to guard X. I don't think that 1/5/7/11s necessarily should crumb what they did because oftentimes it won't amount to a hard guilty or hard inno.

This is all recapped on mobile without referencing the setup clock but I think it should be accurate

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I guess I can extend that to say if a VT and a 1/5/7/11 TPR are dead on D2 this still works, also I think it's still good if we eliminate scum toDay. Eliminating scum or scum PR toDay might allow for more ways to guilty overNight too, not sure without checking the setup

[ssbm_Kyouko]

i am very tempted to e-1 cobb

Do it

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I dont have a hard guilty. I drafted something overnight - this is a scenario where we should be hypoclaiming with a VT dead overnight - if there was no kill or a PR death it might have been best to stay quiet (aside from the have/don't have a guilty claims)

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I don't have a hard guilty - does anyone have a hard guilty before we move to hypoclaims?

These are the possible hypoclaims for 2/4/8/10, where the letters are variables like targets or actions:
2 (Tracker): X went nowhere, X visited Y, (X visited Y and Z is a hard guilty)
4 (Follower): X did nothing, X Jailkept, X Tracked, (X shot/killed is a hard guilty)
8 (Roleblocker): I roleblocked X
10 (Rolecop): X is vanilla, X is a doctor, X is a Roleblocker, (X is a rolecop is a hard guilty)

As a reminder, if you are on 1/5/7/11, you should make up a claim on 2/4/8/10. If you want to you can try to "sneak" your actual claim into the hypoclaim.
For example a Vanilla Cop who got a Vanilla result could claim to be a Rolecop that got a Vanilla result.
A jailkeeper could claim to have roleblocked their target.
Doctors and Babysitters can claim anything, just try not to out yourself.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Claimed no guilty:
Mizuki, Kyouko, Imaginality, Thomith

Have not claimed a guilty/no guilty:
Gamma, elements, Puff

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I don't agree that Imaginality could never be bussing here, but I didn't get that feeling yesterDay and I'd need to see evidence of that to go that way toDay. I think it makes sense scum tried to kill Enchant thinking he had a good shot at being PR given how he hammered a claimed PR.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I followed Imaginality and saw him Jailkeeping

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I followed Imaginality and saw him Jailkeeping

Hypoclaim:^
(For ctrl+F searches)

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Hypoclaim: I roleblocked Elements

If this is a true claim why did you roleblock Elements and not me? On day 1 you had me as scum and you had Elements as town.

- A

Also since these are hypoclaims I don't think we should ask questions like this - these are not necessarily real claims and should not be questioned as though they are real until a hard claim is made in the future

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I see Imaginality you already answered but others should not pose those questions, and if they are posed they should not be answered

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Because it's lazy and that feels more like town than scum. The alternative is that you're scum scrambling desperately to push Gamma for {arbitrary reasons} and I don't think that makes sense in the gamestate unless the scumteam is exactly {Cobbler, Elements}, and even then that's a stretch because in that case there are still like 3 low-activity slots that could be pressured to divert attention from Cobbler instead.

Guess I need to metadive Elements to see if her post about Gamma is something she would do as town but I tell ya it's not looking good

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Just to be clear I am not currently scumreading Elements - until I metadive her to see if she normally makes low-effort metadives as town, I will continue to TR her. If i find that she normally puts more effort in as town, or that she has a pattern of making this kind of lazy meta push as scum, then the only scenario where she could have been scum is a lot more likely because cobb did flip scum. If you look back at when Mizuki was pushing me about my confidence in my read on Elements, you will note that the only scenario where scum!Elements makes sense is if the team is exactly {Cobb, Elements}. I don't think I survive the Night if this was the case but I'm not going to let that WIFOM deter me from meta diving Elements to verify what her townplay is like.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Also this Gamma posting is scumpinging me, I'm pretty sure she has done this before - made a kill that "doesnt make sense for her to have made" and argued against it. I'll have to confirm that too. I won't have time for either metadive until tomorrow

[ssbm_Kyouko]

So much bloop in other games

no bloop here

this makes me a bloop axolotl

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I've been through Elements' ISO in all of their completed games from this year.

When I say

evidence

, what I'm looking for are any references to meta. I try to start with a broad approach and if I notice a specific pattern I will try to hone in on that, but here there was not one (related to Elements using meta at least, there was a NAI pattern I found).

large 245:
no evidence, low postcount

booneytoonz: town
243: nothing you've done is out of your scum range (I later learned that Elements said this about a player they know IRL when reading another game they played together in where that player was town and Elements was scum)
1519: counts every post (53) in the iso of theta and categorizes it

grand idea:
74 post count replace-in, no evidence
fruit mafia:
replaced out, low postcount, no evidence

normal 2302: scum
119 "I'm not a fan of meta partly because most of the time I get bored reading other people's past games"
169 - are you gonna meta me or? (in response to being SRed for making up reads D1 and then claiming she always does this)
272 - self-metas to defend self against Morning Tweet suspecting
935 - "im not going to meta myself"

Mini 2291: town
replaced out, low postcount, but something to note that I found to be accurate was this bit of self-meta:
255 - Elements is a self-professed wagon-follower on D1 (like they like to vote for large wagons to push through pretty much any elimination) She was a a follower in this game so makes sense she just wanted nights, but she says this about herself in another game iirc and from reading her ISOs from this year I found it to be accurate as both alignments she vote hops a lot on D1.

HMS Mutiny: scum - lots of vote hopping like they do as town (no meta evidence)

Open 872 (Guardians of the fortress): scum
116: dont have a long enough memory to remember scum/town games unless it's recent

I'd say that overall the results are inconclusive. I'll retract that it's unlikely for that lazy read to come from scum!Elements though, in light of the Cobblerfone flip. scum!Elements would have had motivation to try to move the wagon away from Cobb. If anything Elements' NAI pattern of being vote-hoppy on D1 might indicate they had knowledge Cobb would flip scum and were trying to avoid it. My impression from their ISOs is that they just want to kill anyone D1 when they are town or scum. I don't have context on any of their votes from those ISOs though - like idk if as town they have been known to flip-flop off of a close-to-elimination wagon

[ssbm_Kyouko]

If I remember correctly on Gamma I'm thinking of Owner's Market Blitz, maybe Mountain Dew Mafia, maybe Isekai uPick. She might not have been scum in mountain dew mafia. There's a plethora of unnamed Normals in my "My Games" text file wherein Gamma may have been scum, but I wouldn't recall those ones just from reading the game number and I don't track all the other players and their alignments/roles in my file - only my own. I'll take a peek at those ones. I should probably check Radio Buzz as well as I misread her in that game and

faked a guilty

[ssbm_Kyouko]

seeing 425 reminds me Cobb was newbscum and probably spewed some townies

Owner's Market Blitz was not the game I'm remembering btw

[ssbm_Kyouko]

No but they definitely were, with peace and love

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Tired of reading old games - found no evidence to support Gamma does WIFOM NKA as scum - disregard my 424

[ssbm_Kyouko]

SNIP

normal 2302: scum
119 "I'm not a fan of meta partly because most of the time I get bored reading other people's past games"

SNIP

This was an enjoyable read, thank you

2302 post 119 was a mood. I used to love metadiving but it sucked today ngl. I don't think I have the energy anymore at 30. Gonna stick to that for parrot scumtells which are easy with ctrl + f

pedit: yeah I just scumread you in that game for a long time I think. Noticed you were town when I went to check it

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I'm rereading and am at 124 now. Mizuki has had ample opportunity to move off of Cobblerfone but has not let off the gas. I don't think this is a bus and am pretty confident Mizuki is just town so far on the reread.

I'm trying to look at this as though Puff is Cobb's partner and I'm really not seeing it.

I have a really hard time reading setup speculation without my eye's glazing over, but I think I ultimately followed it. I do think I generally get a town read on ssbm because of it though. Maybe also Mizuki.

UNVOTE:

What I do see here is a potential Follower crumb and since Cobbler claimed Follower, I could see scum thinking there is a follower in the setup and trying to draw a future counterclaim out of them with this plan. It's a common enough expression, but worth noting as a potential crumb I think.

With the way Puff's responding, I'm sticking with my vote for now. Assuming the head that posted 30 is the one posting recently, they've had ample time to respond to the questioning. Though they might be trying to do something.

Though there are statistical reasons for me to doubt they're mafia, especially since I'm not sure it makes sense for Kyouko to be Puff's partner. Unless she has a history of bussing? I'll research that sometime today or tomorrow. I'll definitely have more free time tomorrow.

This just reads to me as trying to look like he is contributing and I don't think scum wants to be sitting around on their partner's wagon at this point. Cobb is just latching on to 30 the way the rest of the thread did and coasting off of it, so I think Puff is probably just town here

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I'm on 224 now and noticed a couple things - namely that the interactions between Cobb and Gamma are lacking teeth - I feel Gamma would have been justified pressuring Cobb harder or voting him much earlier, not sure if Gamma.ever did vote Cobb yet in my reread.

I also see though that Cobb refrains from expressing a read on Celebloki when Thomith asked Cobb what his thoughts on everyone were. See below how Cobb talks about Gamma and Celebloki:

@Cobblerfone, we have your thoughts on Kyouko and Puff, what are your thoughts on the other players in this game?

Admittedly you remind me of my scum IC in my first newbie game on the site. Way back long ago. So you give me scum vibes, but I'm actively choosing to ignore them, because I think it was probably mostly a personality thing. When I read your posts, I imagine an old man in a leather armchair hanging back and but asking questions with a point to them. Though when I check your profile you seem to be younger than me in reality, so apologies.

For Elements, their vote hopping sticks out to me RVS!Puff -> Thomith -> Cobblerfone -> Gamma. When I read their posts they have a more naive voice in my head, but whether it's naive town or naive scum, I'm not sure.

Gamma gives the impression of just hanging back until I called her out. First parcel of content is in ISO 5 in which she gives the opinion that hypoclaiming targets but not results will be better. Next non-setup post of substance is ISO 9 where she asks Adorable what she thinks of Gobs reads. And that's it until I vote for her low content posts. Then she becomes more active. IDK, maybe she's mobile posting, but overall her early posts gives the impression of someone who wants to appear to be posting but to also fade into the background without strong opinions.

Mizuki, I think of in terms of her tunnel on me. My gut gives me a slight town read because I have a history of attracting misguided town tunnels. She was also the first vote on me when there was still a plausible wagon on Puff, so unless Puff is mafia and Mizuki is their partner, I don't see her being mafia. Though if Puff is mafia, then Mizuki is scummier.

For Celebloki and Shadowez, there's not enough interaction from them. Them being V/LA is slightly annoying, but it's Thanksgiving so whatever.

Because it's lazy and that feels more like town than scum. The alternative is that you're scum scrambling desperately to push Gamma for {arbitrary reasons} and I don't think that makes sense in the gamestate unless the scumteam is exactly {Cobbler, Elements}, and even then that's a stretch because in that case there are still like 3 low-activity slots that could be pressured to divert attention from Cobbler instead.

Why couldn't it be mafia simply not feeling pressured and lazily throwing out arbitrary scumreads? You present the possibility of lazy!town and desperate!wolf but don't seem to consider the option in the middle.

-SNIP-

I won't get into the whole statistics part of this post because my opinions on statistics in mafia is that they're only useful for the theoretical side of mafia (e.g balancing setups) and have no use in actual gameplay.

I do want to know what you find in Puff's and Kyouko's posts that seems townie and what in Elements posts you find scummy, since those are basically the only reads you've given so far.

I'll assume you mean Gamma instead of Elements (unless that was a scum-slip and Elements is your partner?). For Gamma, see above.

For Puff, it's mostly Adorable. The way they've been answering questions directed at Gob seems more stream-of-consciousness rather than calculated. Adorable is also choosing to reply when they don't have to -- they could just wait for Gob.

For Kyouko, the setup speculation didn't seem calculated to influence the town to choose a bad option. It was also early at the start of the game where there's low information anyway and it got some discussion going, though it didn't really go anywhere. And while she's not asking questions, her reactions to posts feel genuine rather than calculated.

For everyone else that Cobbler provides commentary on, he also provides some kind of read. With Gamma he provides commentary (shade even) and doesn't outright say he scumreads Gamma. And before anyone says "but Kyouko, Cobb doesn't provide a read on you or Puff either", that's because the original question from Thomith excluded the 2 of us because Cobb had already made his stance on us clear

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Mostly now I'm reinforcing TRs in Mizuki, Thomith, and Elements, and want POE within Gamma/imaginality because Puff looks to be spewed town

[ssbm_Kyouko]

And yeah replacing in to a nullish slot and voting your suspected scumbuddy is definitely the strat if Imaginality is scum. That alone does not warrant anything close to a clear

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Snipped a lot

Granted, considering how we had two competing wagons with 2 votes on at the same time and neither even got to a 3rd vote,

I would not be surprised if one or (or even both scum) were in Shadowez / Celebloki.

Puff also only ever got to 3 votes. Although, I we guess we do have plurality at deadline. That might make scum less eager in general to hop on wagons.

There's the FoS on Celebloki finally. Scum, especially a newer scum without an active partner, would be self-conscious about leaving at least one partner in their pool. At this point Celebloki has pretty much painted himself into a corner by TRing so many slots as well and now can't hide scum!Celebloki from a poe without it being suspicious. Not 3 names here but this is pretty textbook rule of 3 and I expect that from Cobb.

Plurality is not enabled in this game

Also I think daytalk is on and maybe this mistake about plurality doesnt happen if Gamma is the last scum

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I'm just gonna

VOTE: Imaginality

His position after the catch-up is just too perfectly aligned with how scum should be playing in that slot. TRs on popular/consensus TRed slots, suspicion on the most nullish, the take on Cobb's recent post being well thought out just doesn't feel legit. I think the best shot Imaginality had was to counterwagon Puff but maybe he wanted a more natural progression where he has these 3 SRs/suspicious slots in Cobb/Puff/Shadowwes and wanted to move from Cobb to Puff over time, but the Cobb wagon was too fast for him to stop

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Thomith's been asking good questions throughout and seems to be actually thinking about what people say.

Elements felt genuine to me when discussing their entrance and I agree that questioning people waiting around on Puff to answer felt like something scum wouldn't do.

Mizuki was my top town read early but there were one or two mistakes later which are probably genuine but just made me inch back from my earlier complete confidence.

Kyouko handled the pressure that came her way well, I thought

Gamma isn't a scum read but I did feel uncertain and want to watch more closely

Puff and Cobb I've mentioned. Shadow is there as kinda my alternative because if Puff and Cobb aren't scum together then my scumread on either of them individually weakens somewhat and then taking away my townreads that leaves Shadow down there.

I had meant to quote this in my last post to demonstrate the 3 "suspected" slots

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I have a really hard time reading setup speculation without my eye's glazing over, but I think I ultimately followed it. I do think I generally get a town read on ssbm because of it though. Maybe also Mizuki.

UNVOTE:

What I do see here is a potential Follower crumb and since Cobbler claimed Follower, I could see scum thinking there is a follower in the setup and trying to draw a future counterclaim out of them with this plan. It's a common enough expression, but worth noting as a potential crumb I think.

Did you misread Celeboki as Cobblerfone?
I'm Celebloki's replacement, and this is not helpful speculation.

No I didn't misread it, what I'm saying is Celebloki and Cobbler potentially coordinated to crumb follower so that in the event one was going down, they could try to bait a CC from what is probably the only role that could guilty them if Celebloki rolled strongman, which seems the most likely.scenario if Cobbler claimed specifically Follower. My guess is scum rolled strongman and because strongman can shoot through Babysitter, Roleblocker, and Jailkeeper, the only PR to worry about is Follower

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Feels like maybe you missed Cobbler's claim which is maybe a little yikes

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Yeah but the puzzle fits so nicely if it's strongman

[ssbm_Kyouko]

UNVOTE:

I'm close to a breakthrough, just don't want an early hammer

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think we have a very strong mechanical play

[ssbm_Kyouko]

prepare to be dazzled

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I actually don't think this works, I forgot to consider if scum have a strongman that held their shot last Night

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Sorry to put you on the spot here Thomith but I need to know, do scum have a strongman that held their shot last night?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Thomith can confirm whether scum have a strongman if his claim is true, and if his claim is true we have very good odds here

[ssbm_Kyouko]

He's also widely TRed enough that if he is exactly the scum!strongman here and says he doesn't know, he cannot benefit from lying due to how the hypoclaims were made

[ssbm_Kyouko]

We're actually fine because thomith cant lie about it and gain

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Getting lunch bbl

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I have examined all the possibilities (including ones where mizuki is a follower pretending to be tracker and where Thomith is a vanilla cop pretending to be a rolecop) and found a mechanical solution that in most cases leads to 3pELO with a clear, and in some cases leads to a mechanical autowin.

Thomith and Mizuki are the only hypoclaims that, if true claiming, can confirm whether scum have a strongman. Mizuki, if trueclaiming, can only be a PR with Thomith because I'm actually VT. so I'm asking Thomith, rather than Mizuki, because Mizuki might be a Follower pretending to be a Tracker. Regardless of Thomith's actual role, Vanilla Cop or Rolecop, he will know if he has one of those roles that scum do not have a strongman because strongman is not adjacent to either of Thomith's possible roles

[ssbm_Kyouko]

If scum have a strongman then my proposed solution for the scenario where the scum have a strongman does not hold up IF the strongman holstered N1. In my proposed solution, the roleblocker and jailkeepers will be leashed into re-targeting the same targets toNight, which would clear their target in some cases. Actually this kight not be flawed. I was about to say, the flaw is that if they holstered last night then they can use it toNight, but then if they had holstered last night they would not have killed of the real PR targeted them. This is fine actually, no need for thomith to answer

[ssbm_Kyouko]

formatting this is a nightmare

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Step 1: Force any claimed roleblockers/JKs to target the same player again toNight because that player cannot strongman twice in a row, which means if any of our claimed RB/JKs are truly RB/JK, then they can clear their N1 target by targeting them again toNight.
Step 2: Eliminate Gamma because she cannot be cleared by any of the others and she has already claimed VT.

In the morning, if everyone survived, we start claiming roles (Imaginality claims before Elements because his claim can clear her, so if he tries to claim PR and Elements is the real PR then Imaginality is guiltied by his own paradoxical claim. Puff claims last.
>>>>RB!Imaginality - if someone else dies/if Imaginality survives and claims RB, this clears Elements (Last PR is either a babysitter or Rolecop!Thomith)
>>>>JK!Elements - if someone else dies/if Elements survives and claims JK, this clears Mizuki - last PR is a babysitter
>>>>JK!Puff - someone else dying/Puff Surviving clears ssbm_Kyouko - last PR is a babysitter
>>>>>>>>if a claimed JK survives (and there are no deaths)
>>>>>>>>>>>>it means strongman was the maf PR and they wasted it on N1 and we have 2 clears in 5p which leads to 1 clear in 3p or 2 clears in 4p if the NK is stopped.
>>>>>>>>>>>>This can get WIFOMed by scum electing not to kill but if that seems to be the case we will at least have our claimed PRs as 2 clears in 6p, and if scum tries to CC the babysitter then we can 1v1 them with a spare mislim available and mechanically win.
>>>>>>>>if a JK dies then the player that they cleared chooses the claim order and should claim last, so that mafia doesn't know (at the time the mafia claims) if the babysitter is already cleared. We then assume the babysitter is clear or 1v1 the claims if countered, because we have the mislim to spare and we kill both and mechanically win.
>>>>>>>>>>>>in this case we will end up with 1-2 clears in 5p, which best case nets us a cleared kingmaker in 3p ELO. Worst case we go to 3p ELO without clears but that's already our worst case if we miss twice

For what it's worth I've seen crumbs that lead me to believe we are not in the roleblocker/JK scenario anyways, and the above scenario is the worst of the three scenarios. I am fairly confident Thomith is a PR and am unsure whether Mizuki or Imaginality are the other one.

The other scenarios follow:
If mizuki is really a tracker then the only other PR that can exist is Thomith (because I'm claiming VT right now, it's already a little obvious from my push on imaginality that I don't have a clear on him). In this case scum can either have a rolecop or a roleblocker
>>>>Scum Rolecop: One of thomith/Mizuki dies toNight. They both target ssbm_Kyouko (not imaginality - this is explained later in the Imaginalty + Thomith PR scenario) and the surviving PR has a guilty/inno on ssbm_Kyouko
>>>>>>>>ssbm_Kyouko (cleared by the living PR) + Puff (cleared by Thomith) + Elements (cleared by Mizuki) + thomith/Mizuki are clear
>>>>>>>>leaves Imaginality guilty by POE of the remaining living players being cleared
>>>>Scum Roleblocker: One dies and one is blocked
>>>>>>>>Puff + Elements + thomith/Mizuki are clear
>>>>>>>>this is 5p with 3 clears and is a mechanical auto-win over 2 Days

If Mizuki is not a Tracker, then Thomith is either a Vanilla Cop or a Rolecop and the other Town PR is either a Doctor or Town!Roleblocker!Imaginality.
>>>>If there is a Doctor out there, the only target you should have tonight is Thomith. If scum have a roleblocker and manage to block the doctor with a good guess and kill thomith, we still have Puff as a non-doctor clear (because Thomith said Puff was Vanilla) in 5p and the doctor can claim at 5p to clear themselves. This is 5p with 2 clears and we have a spare mislim if the doctor is CCed, leading to a good 3P ELO with 1 clear (either the Doctor or Puff). Note this is guaranteed to be 2 clears because Thomith said Puff is vanilla.

It's possible that rolecop!Thomith found doctor!Puff and fakeclaimed Puff as vanilla because it would protect Puff, that could lead us to 3p with no clears if it's the case.

The bold shouldn't be discussed further so scum will still have to guess if this is the case.
If the last PR is town!roleblocker!Imaginality, you can clear Elements by targeting them again, Thomith has already cleared Puff, and Thomith just needs to clear me or Mizuki. Thomith can't target Mizuki in case she is the other PR from his POV though, so he should target me. In this case Maf has a rolecop and can't stop both of you from adding to the clears



If there is a

mafia roleblocker

they have to guess whether there is a doctor in the woodwork that is going to protect thomith, or if thomith and mizuki are both investigatives. we've covered that if thomith and mizuki are both investigatives, that mafia is in a bad spot because they each already have unique clears.

If there is a

mafia rolecop on the right (at 3)

, they are powerless to stop Mizuki/Thomith from a mechanical win - I'm not a follower and nobody else claimed it so I guess Mizuki could be if she wanted to be tricky and clear Elements that way - even so with only one scum left a follower can guilty the same as a tracker can. Also note that if Mizuki is a follower it only matters mechanically if scum has a strongman, in which case the last PR is a Jailkeeper, but the Jailkeeper that targeted Mizuki (Elements) can't actually be a jailkeeper that prevents Mizuki from getting a result by Jailing her again, because if that were the case, Mizuki would not have gotten a result N1.

If there is a

mafia rolecop on the left (at 9)

, they're unable to stop additional clears from coming in because we have at least one of {Thomith, Imaginality} as PRs that can clear more players. If it's Thomith + Doctor then Rolecop can't do anything to prevent Thomith from clearing me (because I've claimed VT, and the only way to stop Thomith adding a clear here is if Thomith targets the doctor and scum also kills the doctor by guessing them correctly. As long as Thomith targets me this can't happen since I'm not doc). If it's Imaginality and Babysitter, scum have no way of knowing that and probably have to try to kill Thomith (unless Puff is the last scum, he would know Thomith is a VT). Even so we would have Elements cleared if scum guessed it was Imaginality + Babysitter and Imaginality died.

If there is a

mafia strongman

, we're in the first scenario where we might end up in WIFOM territory if scum choose not to kill versus a Jailkeeper, but if scum choose not to kill we'll still have the babysitter and the jailkeeper/roleblocker as clears in 6p which is decent - in this case the babysitter might be able to swing us back to odds if they keep their intended target quiet, either by blocking the kill (5p 2 clears in case of wifom) or getting killed (3p where the JK is clear)

The TL;DR

Any doctor should be on Thomith
Thomith should target me
Mizuki should target me or Imaginality
Any babysitters (in case Thomith and Mizuki are both not PRs) should not act for two reasons: to prevent us from going straight to 4p MELO, and to prevent possible interference with the Roleblocker/JK clears, which from the Babysitter's POV, one will happen overNight.
Any Roleblockers/JKs (Imaginality, Elements, Puff) must agree to target the same player consecutively to clear that player in the event of the RB/JK's or another non-target's death
Thomith/Mizuki should never target each other

[ssbm_Kyouko]

So first off, I need to know if there are any objections, and if there are not, I need Imaginality, Elements, and Puff to commit to re-targeting the same players toNight

[ssbm_Kyouko]

In either scenario if mafia have a rolecop there is no way to prevent the PRs from getting another clear/guilty tonight for a 4/5th clear

If they have the rolecop on the right, yes (unless Mizuki is a Follower pretending to be a Tracker). If they have the rolecop on the left then there is a possibility that there is no doctor, which means Imaginality is a town Roleblocker, in which case they might kill Imaginality or you if scum guesses that there is a doctor that would save Thomith

[ssbm_Kyouko]

the tl;dr

Any Roleblockers/JKs (Imaginality, Elements, Puff) must agree to target the same player consecutively to clear the targeted player in the event of the RB/JK's or a different non-target player's death

EBWOP for clarity

If there is a

strongman that holstered

amongst the RB/JK targets, they would also know that the player that claims to have RB/JKed them is not a real RB/JK, and they may be able to strongman shoot through one of the other targets. If this happens, in case I'm the target that gets strongmanned I'll say this now, RB/JKs should continue to target the same players in N3 I'm pretty sure.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

But if there's a Roleblocker do we not have 4 clears which solves the game?

Assuming you mean a Mafia Roleblocker and not a town one, but in that case it could be that Thomith + an anonymous Doctor are the PRs in which case we have Thomith, doctor, Puff, and me clear tomorrow. The problem with that is I can die overnight, or Puff can be the doctor, or both, in which case we would have fewer than 4 clears depending on how the Night Actions shake out. If all of the RB/JK claims are fake though mafia is essentially boned

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Mafia roleblocker versus Tracker and Vanilla cop though, yes we currently have 4 clears out of 7. One PR dies overnight and the other is blocked (scum are multitasking) and we move to 3 clears out of 5. So yeah we win in that case too. If Thomith and Mizuki are both PRs we win. If Mizuki is a Tracker then from her pov we have won

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Kyouko do you still want me to answer your question regarding the setup?

cat's out of the bag but yes

[ssbm_Kyouko]

actually no maybe

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think you answering that question helps scum if they are the left Rolecop

[ssbm_Kyouko]

As much as I'd like to know now I think you not answering is technically better
pedit: ok see your crumbs are the ones I was mentioning and why I was pretty sure we were not in strongman scenario

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Yes, Thomith balked about the possibility of there being both a town and a scum roleblocker in the setup with a town!rolecop when I was talking about possible guilty results - I noticed on the reread

[ssbm_Kyouko]

assuming nobody CCs Rolecop!Thomith + Roleblocker!Elements:

clear: Thomith, Puff, Elements, Mizuki
scum?: me, gamma, imaginality

Kill one scum?, roleblock the other, rolecop the third > tomorrow morning we win

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I guess coordination isn't required because if you both target the same player and one of you dies the remaining one still has a guilty/inno on one of the 2

[ssbm_Kyouko]

for the record - not mechanically speaking, I still think it's Imaginality, and since Elements and Thomith are coordinated in night actions now, I'll:
VOTE: Imaginality
putting him back to E-1.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Gg, looks like I was wrong though. I think the townblock gets there without the mechanics in this game, I was getting close to compromising on Gamma before I started looking at mechs

[ssbm_Kyouko]

hypoclaiming worked out this time but the more I think about it I'm not sure if it's correct

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Speaking on setup balance from the dead thread, I think when mafia rolls Rolecop it's townsided, especially the 3 o'clock rolecop. Maybe a 1-shot Ninja on the right side and a second roleblocker on the left? The ability to claim on D2 in a lot of these setups breaks it I think. The 3 o'clock rolecop is so weak compared to town's combinations of 1/2, 2/4, and 4/5 I think.

Maybe the ev on 7:2 mountainous is pretty scum-favored without PRs though and I'm undervaluing the 7:2 aspect compared to the available PRs

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Yeah I guess the D1 scum elimination makes things much different - scum rolecop just feels really weak though, especially versus hypoclaims where by the time you've found a PR on N1 using the rolecop ability, the PR results are already out there. If you find them on N2 I guess scum knows who

not

to try to push in 5p ELO on D3

Maybe it's not as bad as I'm thinking - I think the townblock was pretty solid this game after Mizuki was done voting me, although Elements roleblocked Mizuki so maybe it wasn't as strong as I thought.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I almost feel like this setup might be less swingy if its 12p or 13p with 3 mafia tbh.

That's a good idea I think - a variant setup with more players and the same clock. I think with more phases it makes it more of a decision for when a strongman should use their shot too.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Good job town! Sorry about ditching, pretty much the entire family was sick the beginning of last week and with the holiday I knew I wouldn't have the energy to devote to the game.

Game is back in sign-ups in the Open Queue right now if they're feeling better yet. I know that can be rough, I travelled recently and the whole family came home sick and stayed sick for like 3 weeks