open 896: describing conker (game over)

[Elements]

VOTE: Elements

why didn't you put me in the small hood with you

VOTE: elements
That's why I'm just gonna town lock you

[Elements]

VOTE: jupiter
If we hit the red team member in the group of 5 day 1 we just win right?

[Elements]

VOTE: Dann

Policy vote for me

VOTE: Frayed Knott
I was planning on rvsing you for having a cool name anyway but policy voting in a 9 player game is a terrible idea

[Elements]

VOTE: Elements

why didn't you put me in the small hood with you

We both know there is nothing thay could've prevented me putting us in the small hood together unless we were both red team so you should be townreading me for it

[Elements]

Anyone else got any thoughts if anyone would neighbourise with specific people?

[Elements]

Elements are you scum?

Nope

[Elements]

Why? Are you?

[Elements]

I'm town!

Is that what you'd say if you were red team though...

[Elements]

Bloop

[Elements]

Probably

[Elements]

I believe you
2 down, 3 to go

[Elements]

Your lack of confidence in your own towniness is telling...

Telling of what?

[Elements]

Your lack of confidence in your own towniness is telling...

Telling of what?

Telling that you're actually scum

Nah, if I was scum I'd be in the mini hood with Daisy

[Elements]

VOTE: Elements

why didn't you put me in the small hood with you

We both know there is nothing thay could've prevented me putting us in the small hood together unless we were both red team so you should be townreading me for it

I don't see why it's a guarantee that you neighbourize me if evil? I've had a very good track record of being read well early on in my summer on ms playing with you so like, it's not out of the realm of possibility you as scum just avoid that day 2 1v1 that would prolly happen.

On the other hand, you're a being of chaos and you would've loved that so sure you can be town for now.

UNVOTE: Elements
VOTE: Aristeia

Your lack of confidence in your own towniness is telling...

Telling of what?

Telling that you're actually scum

Nah, if I was scum I'd be in the mini hood with Daisy

Not sure I believe you

Believe Daisy then

[Elements]

Probably should've re-read what daisy said before using that as evidence of my towniness

[Elements]

T

locktown

Scumclaim

[Elements]

VOTE: Aristeia

[Elements]

Mech stuff
I think trying to hit the 1/6 day 1 is best coz it wins the game
Then either way we look at the 1 in 3 day 2

[Elements]

im gonna guess the scum team as elements + dannflor on page 2

i dont care that dannflor hasnt posted yet that's never stopped me

Idk how to recover from this

[Elements]

Bloop

[Elements]

I feel like it's best to not commit to killing in either hood and just treat the game fluidly for now, since that probably gives us the best info

But consider this, winning on Day 1

[Elements]

Before anyone says anything I'm not planning on trying to push anyone to e-1 early this game

[Elements]

Before anyone says anything I'm not planning on trying to push anyone to e-1 early this game

Who are you and what did you do with El?

A member of the Red team, not put it in a hood with you?

[Elements]

I went through all of Meuh's onsite completed games and checked their first post

Spoiler: Green Team Games

Newbie 2058 - Hi Guys
Micro Theme 1093 - Flavour Joke
Mini Theme 2315 - I love takes! (Note, proceeds to ask players if they are town/scum)
Defcon 6.0 - Good Morning
Micro 1091 - I'm a miller
Micro 1087 - Helloooooooooo!
Micro 1078 - gooooooooooooood evening everyone!
Open 854 - Goooooooooooooooooooood evening!
Open 847 - Good evening everyone!
First Vengeful - Hello!!!
Micro 1056 - Gooood morning Discord server!
Mafia Invictus Redux - Limitations are so limiting.
Newbie 2084 - Good morning besties!
Mini Normal 2268 - Good morning everyone!!! Let’s obliterate scum
Open 817 - holy shit
Newbie 2054 - Hey everyone!!! time for town to win


Replaced in
Veild Committee - Meuhment
Pokemon Battles 2 - Helloooooooooo everyone!

Spoiler: Red Team Games

Open 879 - What a gross misassessment of the situation at hand.
Mafia 2301 - Goooood evening everyone! Let's catch scum
Newbie 2063 - Goood morning everyone!
Mini Normal 2272 - Gooood morning everyone! Let’s destroy the mafia

For ease I have included her opening post from this game:
Open 896 - Hi I am meuh

On ballance I think this feels closer to green team!meuh than red team!meuh

[Elements]

VOTE: fire

[Elements]

am i town for being in the little neighborhood can any meta truthers back me up

gth i think you're town for not having posted in the hood yet

Is elements a wolf

Nah, ari is Red team

[Elements]

The little hood feels kinda redundant

[Elements]

am i town for being in the little neighborhood can any meta truthers back me up

gth i think you're town for not having posted in the hood yet

Is elements a wolf

Nah, ari is Red team

vote me then

I wanna try for the day 1 win first

[Elements]

elements feels like their position on ari developed as a result of ari's read on ydra (which sets up a 1v1) rather than being a natural result of their own read on ydra or ari

yes

[Elements]

The little hood feels kinda redundant

why did you meta meuh?

was bored

[Elements]

elements feels like their position on ari developed as a result of ari's read on ydra (which sets up a 1v1) rather than being a natural result of their own read on ydra or ari

yes

First red team game I won I won because in final 3 I picked one of the two players and just decided they were red team and pushed that to its conclusion. I barely bothered considering the alternate world. So now I've extra vigilant of players in final 3s picking someone and just going for them.

[Elements]

why can't ydra be the scum in the small hood fypov

ydra can
I'm just vibing with Ari!red right now
I don't think I'll put too much thought into the small hood today

[Elements]

Fire, Daisy, Meuh

[Elements]

idk elements' scum style

Idk my scum style

[Elements]

This is why I'd put myself in a hood with Daisy

[Elements]

The little hood feels kinda redundant

why did you meta meuh?

was bored

why did you pick that?

*shrug*

[Elements]

VOTE: jupiter
and that's hammer

[Elements]

UNVOTE:
ima townbin jupiter for now

[Elements]

VOTE: Afrayed Knott

[Elements]

elements/knott imo

You are, wrong

[Elements]

the fire bit im a bit iffy on but i think there's like a 50/50 chance ari flips scum

there's a 0% chance I flip scum

If we're wrong we can flip ydra after and vindicate you

[Elements]

50/50 chance ari flips scum

either she does or she doesn't

This is next level

[Elements]

the fire bit im a bit iffy on but i think there's like a 50/50 chance ari flips scum

there's a 0% chance I flip scum

If we're wrong we can flip ydra after and vindicate you

elements are you intentionally trying to write scummy posts

No

[Elements]

the fire bit im a bit iffy on but i think there's like a 50/50 chance ari flips scum

there's a 0% chance I flip scum

If we're wrong we can flip ydra after and vindicate you

elements are you intentionally trying to write scummy posts

Why is that post scummy?

[Elements]

i mean i read it as kind of tongue in cheek

but all of your posts have this kind of "oh im just joking around playing fast and loose hehe look at me" type vibe that feels... like you're taking it a little too far?

it feels like you're trying a little too hard to be carefree

similar vibe is why i thought the vote on knott felt like they felt pressured into making it

How could I feel pressured into voting Knott after 2 naked votes?

[Elements]

I guess maybe they are just town and knott is mafia and ydra is scum in small hood but that's p irrelevant if we lim knott today

hence why small hood really doesnt matter

Why do you think knott is Red team?
Or was that just a hypothetical?

[Elements]

elements who do you think is scum in the big hood?

Not Daisy or Meuh

[Elements]

his iso is pretty much empty of any scumhunting and there was no pressure there

I forgot you were the first vote on Knott
Depending on your answer I was going to ask why you hadn't voted there yet

[Elements]

Fire, Daisy, Meuh

i read this as a suspect list, are you saying it was a townread list?

It was a town list

[Elements]

elements who do you think is scum in the big hood?

Not Daisy or Meuh

I thought Fire was in your list. Where did they go?

Evaporated after the terrible push on me

[Elements]

is fire's terrible push on elements in the room with us now?

Yes but it's hard to see it's thay bad

[Elements]

why is meuh town, elements

Our interactions page 1 and 2 felt like playful town

[Elements]

not sure why the wagon rolled. Ari said there is no scum hunting in my ISO, yes there’s nothing there for sure, as the days just begun, and I really have nothing to go on. All I’m seeing for about 8 pages is a lot of joking around by people who seem to have played together a few times in the past, So ok.

[Elements]

Meant to include:
Do you think there's any red team on your wagon?

[Elements]

Bloop

[Elements]

Although Elements response seems off.

Which one?

[Elements]

Meant to include:
Do you think there's any red team on your wagon?

If we go on percentages there may well be as I have two from the small hood sat on me.

And ignoring the hood thing?

[Elements]

VOTE: fire

What makes you want to vote fire?

[Elements]

VOTE: fire

What makes you want to vote fire?

knott wagon: 2 consecutive votes, elements responds by joining the wagon
my wagon: 2 consecutive votes, elements responds by questioning the wagon

what caused the difference in response?

I'm towning you, I'm not towning knott

[Elements]

is fire's terrible push on elements in the room with us now?

the extra naked vote on top of two others is super in character for elements, there's nothing scummy about it at all imo.

i don't think it's scummy if you disregard the context

that said, i misunderstood what elements' reads were at the time so now i think it's a lot more believable for it to be a town move

It returned as of this

[Elements]

Black thinking I'm red team day 1?

Shocker!

[Elements]

Bloop

[Elements]

Black thinking I'm red team day 1?

Shocker!

This feels like you're trying to undermine my read

Show me examples of me doing this before

idk just feels like you've been scum reading me in a lot of games recently

[Elements]

Black, it feels like your read on Ari arose from vibing with her personality rather than her game content
Why do you not think Ari would come in with sharp quips as red team?

[Elements]

First thoughts fresh off the read is that Dann feel

pretty townie.

What is this based on other than 195?
There's nothing Dann has done I can't see him doing as red team without much effort

[Elements]

Having re-read Fire's iso my townread there has started sliding again
Most of it is "who would put who in what group"
The only really expressed reads are "I agree with Black"
The only push towards anyone was due to a misunderstanding about a post I made but then fire still questions what I'm doing in 281 so it doesn't feel like the misunderstood post was all the implied read was based on?

[Elements]

My read on Meuh has similarly slid
her reads are all? "x feels like this game" which is very easy to do to fake reads

[Elements]

Daisy still town
We'd both be in the small hood if either of us was red team
unless we both were

[Elements]

why did you townread me in the first place? that was always what my iso looked like

idk, it was a while ago

[Elements]

Bloop

[Elements]

Not much ai in Knott's iso either

[Elements]

Big hood

Daisy

Black
Everyone else

Small Hood

Ydra
Ari

[Elements]

also i don't disagree with the daisy town thing but i think it's probably more helpful to explain in context of this game compared to a meta point that matters... mostly to only the two of you.

The read is all based on that
Daisy and I are good friends irl and I wouldn't be able to resist putting us in a hood together and I like to think she wouldn't either
It's not a read that will nessecerily persist through the rest of the game, but it's the strongest ai thing anyone has done this game given i don't have any idea how anyone else would split the group

[Elements]

VOTE: Meuh

[Elements]

VOTE: Meuh

Daisy!
A naked vote! :O

[Elements]

I also think scum!elements would put itself in the small hood
I don't think scum!elements would put Ydra and Ari in there too

[Elements]

also tangentially i was reminded of the space game i played like two years ago offsite that you ran. that was a funny game

there was going to be a whole weather mechanic and building mechanic that would've made it probably terrible
also, do I know you?

[Elements]

If people want me to explain my read on El from an in-game context, I struggle to see why they choose to be in the small hood based on the fact that they're a player who doesn't get consistent early townreads in games (not even from me).

Like if the expectation is that the small hood gets the focus, and you know that you're a player who is often hovering in danger of mislims Day 1, why would that be a good idea? The only answer I find is the WIFOM angle.

this is interesting because - is that actually the expectation of the small hood? i feel like this setup's been ran enough that people who are familiar with it know that you can autowin on D1 which is an alluring choice.

afaik el's played this setup irl with me a lot and there the expectation is that the small hood is murdered every time. i only realised that going for the other hood might be good after this game started.

I do not remember playing this setup ever

[Elements]

under ares, that is

I was just trying to figure out who you were

[Elements]

If people want me to explain my read on El from an in-game context, I struggle to see why they choose to be in the small hood based on the fact that they're a player who doesn't get consistent early townreads in games (not even from me).

Like if the expectation is that the small hood gets the focus, and you know that you're a player who is often hovering in danger of mislims Day 1, why would that be a good idea? The only answer I find is the WIFOM angle.

this is interesting because - is that actually the expectation of the small hood? i feel like this setup's been ran enough that people who are familiar with it know that you can autowin on D1 which is an alluring choice.

afaik el's played this setup irl with me a lot and there the expectation is that the small hood is murdered every time. i only realised that going for the other hood might be good after this game started.

I do not remember playing this setup ever

fr? that's crazy we've played it a good number of times at mafia. guess you weren't there then lol, my point dissipates

what do you make of the fact I've said the opposite of what you've said about me picking hoods?

[Elements]

Elements why am I town

Jupiter's reaction to the fake lim

[Elements]

Bloop

[Elements]

Which is why you're only slightly above the rest
I can see Jupiter faking that

[Elements]

After reading the setup my first thought was to fade in the small hood because I liked the odds but fading in the big hood is definitely more intriguing

it feels like a double edge sword, if we fade in the big group we can win, but we also only get assosiatives with 3 players? (kinda, not really but you get what I mean) But limmin in the small group we can get 6 assosiatives to look at ya know?

[Elements]

Did ya'll talk about it in the scum PT too o.O

[Elements]

Yeah I see what you're saying. You've been pretty adamant about wanting to fade in the big group though. I'm kinda surprised to see you more on the fence about it now

I still want to vote in the big group day 1
but i can see the merits of voting the small groups

Why did Meuh drop out of your townreads btw? I just noticed that

320
the intial town reasoning for our early interaction feeling fun town is still there, but nothing since has pinged green to me so the read has slipped

[Elements]

I'm null on most others but feel scum is in and around Dann/ Ari / Elements.

Can you give us more on why you think there's red team in the three of us?

[Elements]

After reading the setup my first thought was to fade in the small hood because I liked the odds but fading in the big hood is definitely more intriguing

it feels like a double edge sword, if we fade in the big group we can win, but we also only get assosiatives with 3 players? (kinda, not really but you get what I mean) But limmin in the small group we can get 6 assosiatives to look at ya know?

So to try and explain further with examples:
Day 1 we lim a town in the big hood
Big hood players 1 is actively pushing for the mislim
Small hood players 1 is pushing for a mislim but also protecting someone
The reverse being true for mislimming in the small hood but the protecting associatives can be looked at for 6 players rather than 3
Does that make more sense?

[Elements]

everyone starts at 1/3 odds in the small hood.

i've explained how i've got a lot of conflicting thoughts on the el slot, but there's nothing too concerning there so el stays at 1/3

sheeping ydrasse meta analysis for now cause i don't have knowledge on the slot, seems like an unlikely player to opt into the small hood. 1/6.

that leaves ari who hasn't rly townpinged me with anything they've done whatsoever and as i've talked about earlier there's an air of self-protection around the slot that feels scummy. 1/2 is what's left.

How have your small hood reads changed since this post?

[Elements]

Ari did a nice push on Afrayed I liked

Is there anything in Ari's push you think couldn't be made by competent red team?

[Elements]

I feel like I'm being very naysayery about most expressed tonreads this game
But not much has happened yet so :shrug:

[Elements]

I feel like I'm being very naysayery about most expressed tonreads this game
But not much has happened yet so :shrug:

Maybe I'm too focused on could rather than should

[Elements]

*could rather than would

[Elements]

Hey look

[Elements]

Bloop

[Elements]

Is ydra your current pick for small hood scum?

[Elements]

I think knott is town
His push on me feels real and like he believes what he's saying

[Elements]

I agree with everything Black has said and done this page

[Elements]

I agree with everything Black has said and done this page

do you want me to hammer Meuh

Do it

[Elements]

Meuh going for Ydra in the way she did doesn't make sense as scum and scum imo, even if there was an absence of a vote.

I dunno if I'd call what meuh did "going for" ydra

[Elements]

The bad of putting me at E-1 (and making my death possible) outweighs the good of the pressure there, I don’t think this is a particularly crazy idea

E-1 wagons are the most info thing that can happed day 1

[Elements]

I'm enjoying all this talk about if I wanted Ari to hammer
I though Ydra was voting Meuh before the unvote so Meuh was at e-2 again

[Elements]

That kinda fucks all my points if true LMAO

I feel like I've done this to a bunch of your points

[Elements]

All good Ydra was voting Fire prior to the unvote thank god I don't have to reevaluate everything again on like 2 hours of sleep zzz

Except the me/meuh world

[Elements]

VOTE: aristeia

e-1

[Elements]

oh wait
no it's not
i can count

[Elements]

elements what's your read on dannflor?

That he's not red team with you
Beyond that not much, haven't really look at the slot though

Also, I use the other pronouns

[Elements]

That he's not red team with you

when did you make this assessment?

The back and forth you two have had recently

[Elements]

I don't have you as lockscum anymore
Dann's push made me less sure of which of you is Red

[Elements]

Sorry I can't go into much detail, I'm in the middle of a panto rn

[Elements]

why did you want me to hammer Meuh if you think I'm lock scum btw?

I thought Meuh was e-2 at the time

I haven't intentionally been following Dann's vote, I've just gone where the momentum has

[Elements]

so you've been following him on voting for Jupiter, Afayeed, Meuh.

but you decided on his alignment as town off what he interacted with me in the last twenty four hours.

ok cool

I don't think dann is town, I don't think you and dann are red together

[Elements]

Sorry I can't go into much detail, I'm in the middle of a panto rn

A member of the cast or there as audience? Which panto?

Snow White
Stage crew

[Elements]

VOTE: Daisy I wanna poke here

I'll poke Diasy with you
VOTE: Daisy

[Elements]

so you've been following him on voting for Jupiter, Afayeed, Meuh.

but you decided on his alignment as town off what he interacted with me in the last twenty four hours.

ok cool

I don't think dann is town, I don't think you and dann are red together

That makes no sense

What about it doesn't make sense?
I don't think Dann and Ari are exactly the red team

[Elements]

and like my reasoning for elements town right now is mostly a combo of vibes, me thinking you are more likely to be scum, and that i think he’d pick an easier small hood for him to thrive in

Check my pronouns pls

[Elements]

in a scum!Fire world, tho based on gamestate I prefer my vote being on El right now.

In a red!fire world you'd rather vote me than just win?

[Elements]

I'm feeling because voting in the small hood and the flip being town is way less punishing than voting in the big hood and the flip being town.

Why do you say this?

[Elements]

My read on the Ari/Ydra coin flip has been going up or Ari and down for Ydra for a couple of days. Dann's push is what made me think Ari was more likely town, her responses to it helped but it was mostly feeling "that just doesn't feel right" to the pushes
I then decided I'd do a fake scumslip in the hood to see if either of them commented on it, which they didn't but to be fair I feel like it was pretty obviously fake

[Elements]

Someone else have it

[Elements]

I'm feeling because voting in the small hood and the flip being town is way less punishing than voting in the big hood and the flip being town.

Why do you say this?

Because I don't have that much confidence in my reads right now so I wanna plan for worst-case scenario rather than binking it into the big hood based on a read that very easily could just be me being biased cause I know I'm town and someone's pushing me for reasons that I don't feel add up.

so you think voting in the small hood is mechanically better because you're not sure on your reads?

[Elements]

UNVOTE:

why?

[Elements]

E-1 scary

who do you think is going to hammer without intent?

[Elements]

I'm already on the wagon so that's a non issue

[Elements]

I dispise this

big hood: 1/6 chance win the game, 5/6 chance you don't and you're hoping the person you're voting out has good associatives from the small hood to read off of so the flip is useful for town. i don't think fire's interactions with the small hood members tell us all that much about them so if fire is town the flip is rubbish.

There's no hoping someone has good assosiatives when you flip them. If you consider a town flip you can see how good the associatives are before the flip. If fire is town you can see who voted and why as with any flip.

small hood: 1/3 chance get a mafia out, 2/3 chance you don't. same thing about associatives exist BUT you then get a 50/50 between two players for a mafia and p much a guaranteed path to a final 3 still if we wanna take it.

The small hood is always a final 3, the longer all its members stay alive the easier it should be to solve. Limming in the small hood day 1 is a waste of a lim imo.
If you take the path of just voting out small hood members you end up in a final 3 the red team have crafted with night kills to give them the best chance of winning. The moment we start killing in the big hood they lose agency over

i think the risk is too high voting in the big hood considering i've had reasons to townread everyone bar fire and whilst i don't like fire's push at all, the small hood associatives don't rly exist. hence, yea i'd rather vote in the small hood.

What is this risk you keep talking about?
That we flip a town day 1? That is always the most likely outcome.

[Elements]

Elements you seem kinda eager to fade someone

Do I? Or do I just seem like I like e-1s?

[Elements]

A change from Daisy to Fire feels odd considering their positions relative to each other

Ngl I've just been skimming stuff today so I don't know what you mean here. Can you go into it more?

the stances seem to be
Daisy: I have reason to think everyone in the big hood is town, except fire, but idk if i think fire is red
Fire: I pushed Daisy but I want to let her do stuff to see if that changes my read coz I'm not that confident

[Elements]

Okie lets answer this:

1) El you can read. "i don't think fire's interactions with the small hood members tell us all that much about them so if fire is town the flip is rubbish". I can see Fire's associatives aren't useful pre-flip, hence why I'm not pushing for the lim.

2) That path to a red-decided final 3 only exists if town misvotes in the small hood twice. Even if that happens, you can analyse the previous days to see who was happy to let those misvotes happen. Town have a lot of good stuff to work with there and that's after two misvotes.

3) See numby 1. The risk is we flip a town day 1 with useless associatives. A Fire flip tells us nothing about the players in the small hood.

1`- then don't lim fire? or ask fire questions to get him to have associative like "what do you think of x?" "who is most likely red?"

2 - and the red team will keep alive the town that were happy to let the misvotes happen

3 - it's not a risk because we choose who we flip, so we pick someone that has associatives

[Elements]

For someone that doesn't have any red reads in the big hood and is agonising over fire you haven't asked fire a single quesiton have you?

[Elements]

Who do you think has good associatives with the small hood that we should flip El?

Based off just that criteria
Dann, Meuh, You

[Elements]

For someone that doesn't have any red reads in the big hood and is agonising over fire you haven't asked fire a single quesiton have you?

I've been interacting with Fire more than any other player in the game since the push started? I've just been focused on the push rather than trying to get him to commit to reads on small hood players.

And has that helped you read the slot?

[Elements]

For someone that doesn't have any red reads in the big hood and is agonising over fire you haven't asked fire a single quesiton have you?

I've been interacting with Fire more than any other player in the game since the push started? I've just been focused on the push rather than trying to get him to commit to reads on small hood players.

it's also very reactive and not very proactive

[Elements]

How does Meuh have differing associatives I don't think she's in a pair with anyone in the small hood?

The whole thing with Ydra
Ari asking is she should hammer
I was on the e-1 wagon and didn't unvote

[Elements]

For someone that doesn't have any red reads in the big hood and is agonising over fire you haven't asked fire a single quesiton have you?

I've been interacting with Fire more than any other player in the game since the push started? I've just been focused on the push rather than trying to get him to commit to reads on small hood players.

And has that helped you read the slot?

Obviously not LMAO but that's just shit play not scummy play.

I never said it was scummy play
But if you're so torn about your fire read, why aren't you pursuing avenues to try and fix that?

[Elements]

Why don't you think Ydra is red?

[Elements]

Why don't you think Ydra is red?

I think Meuh is town based on the pairing situation with small hood members. 526 & 533 outline this thought process pretty clearly.

Based on this, the fact you & Ari were both more than happy to get that wagon over the line (or at least, displaying as much at the time. I know you're saying you thought it was at E-2) is scummy af. It would have ended the day early, losing us info and time sending town into a scramble (something I know you as scum see as a viable strat). Ydra could maybe in a small world be red but the way you two acted there makes me think that one of you two is way more likely to be the scum of the three.

Why do you think Ari would have hammered?
Do you not think it was to see how I would respond?

[Elements]

I do like how engaged and responsive Daisy feels here. It seems like she's being open with her thoughts

I kinda agree
I disagree with pretty much everything she's saying, but It feels town

[Elements]

Reds only kill in the small hood when the small hood red has flipped

[Elements]

it reads to me that you don't think either are scum, so what is it? you think Ari is red or Dann is red or neither of them are red? and so my question

All I meant by that post was I'm ruling out them being red together
I'm not specifically town or scum read dann, nor Ari for that matter

[Elements]

I like e-1 wagons

[Elements]

Liking Shiki's catchup

[Elements]

Dann has this new rejuvenation of the Black/Shiki slot given you any pause to reconsider your read at all?

[Elements]

Dann has this new rejuvenation of the Black/Shiki slot given you any pause to reconsider your read at all?

do you like Dann's read of the slot at all

is his reasoning for why Black is mafia compelling to you?

It's almost entirely based on partner equity with you right
So no, not really

[Elements]

I'm leaning you more town over ydra now btw
Not by a lot but if I had to pick right now

[Elements]

Dann has this new rejuvenation of the Black/Shiki slot given you any pause to reconsider your read at all?

do you like Dann's read of the slot at all

is his reasoning for why Black is mafia compelling to you?

It's almost entirely based on partner equity with you right
So no, not really

I mean still scum

I think the way she has interacted (or not interacted) with both me and Ari is strange and that is regardless of Ari’s alignment

Afaik Black has been busy irl, hence the replace out, so I don't see the lack of engagement as ai
So I still concur with my previous statement of not compelling

[Elements]

VOTE: shiki

[Elements]

won’t help you sort me won’t help me sort you

Don't need to do either if you're flipped

[Elements]

huh

Maybe I am just following Dann around

[Elements]

What is this bug downside?

[Elements]

*big

[Elements]

Bloop

[Elements]

What is this bug downside?

if wrong then wrong again can end up in 1/3, 1/2 situation which is pretty unfavorable which cannot happen when eliminating in small hood

What's better 1/3 1/2 or 2/5?

[Elements]

What is this bug downside?

if wrong then wrong again can end up in 1/3, 1/2 situation which is pretty unfavorable which cannot happen when eliminating in small hood

What's better 1/3 1/2 or 2/5?

? impossible to get to a 2/5 because scums can’t be in same hood

In the context of this game yes, but in general which is better?

[Elements]

What is this bug downside?

if wrong then wrong again can end up in 1/3, 1/2 situation which is pretty unfavorable which cannot happen when eliminating in small hood

What's better 1/3 1/2 or 2/5?

? impossible to get to a 2/5 because scums can’t be in same hood

In the context of this game yes, but in general which is better?

mathematically it’s the 1/2, 1/3 is better because 50% on first elimination better than 40% in 2/5

So we maintain our setup inherent information compared to hunting an effective sk into a potential final 3

[Elements]

Brute forcing the group of 3 only helps the red team

[Elements]

A mislim is a mislim regardless of group

[Elements]

why ydrasse more likely a scums than aristeia to you now?

Ari has given me more town pings

[Elements]

The "less downside" argument isn't convincing
It's entirely based on probability which is not how to play this game and a final 3 with one day of interactions to look at is significantly worse than a 1/3 + 1/2

[Elements]

oh yeah meuh felt towny too imo when i was interacting with her

Is it just Meuh and Fire in the big hood you actively want to not lim or are there more?

[Elements]

i’ve checked out from the game so my memory of the smaller details is decimated but i don’t want to vote fire or daisy for today. and i think maybe not afrayed?

ta

[Elements]

no it isn’t don’t think cut to final day is worse in anyway definitely better than 1/2, 1/3 and! it’s actually not an easy position for the scums to play and!!! most importantly if we hit in the small hood today we still have all the Muslims for big hood and from your point of view that is 50/50 you literally need to solve 1 slot if i were in your position it’s just i am town therefore one of them solve and one of us gets to play tomorrow as innocent child tada

except I have 7 slots I need to sovlve

[Elements]

feels like shiki and daisy don't know what their reads are for the big hood so are going for the "small hood is 1/3 that's better odds" and not "should probbably look more into the big hood and maybe that will help"

yes this is shade

[Elements]

wait how 7 and not 8

same reason it's 1 and not 2 for me in my hood

[Elements]

wait how 7 and not 8

same reason it's 1 and not 2 for me in my hood

? there are 8 non-you players in the game

and if I solve Ari Ydra becomes solved for me so I don't need to solve Ydra

[Elements]

feels like shiki and daisy don't know what their reads are for the big hood so are going for the "small hood is 1/3 that's better odds" and not "should probbably look more into the big hood and maybe that will help"

yes this is shade

this is shade that also implies were town lol since can’t be unsure of reads and thus hedging is were scums

or a way to steer the game away from autoloss for the reds

[Elements]

from your point of view that is 50/50 you literally need to solve 1 slot if i were in your position it’s just i am town therefore one of them solve and one of us gets to play tomorrow as innocent child tada

You literally said I only needed to solve 1 player!
this is not a game advancing conversation

[Elements]

you only need to solve 1 player

the scum in the big hood

Dann with all the answers

[Elements]

from your point of view that is 50/50 you literally need to solve 1 slot if i were in your position it’s just i am town therefore one of them solve and one of us gets to play tomorrow as innocent child tada

You literally said I only needed to solve 1 player!
this is not a game advancing conversation

sigh you do for the small hood one person you’re 100% confident in solves hood

plus the 6 in the big hood makes 7
though i technically only need to solve 5 in the big hood for the same reason

[Elements]

do you really think this is what i’ve been doing?

idk, it's a possibility especially given how much better I think it is to vote in the big group day 1

like i obviously know i get pressured simply for existing early in games (or early in my presence in games) and if i was afraid of being eliminated myself i could have simply spent the 24 hours “not caught up” and not been eliminated if i were scums

the latest event to happen before you replaced in was Dann voting your slot. You could easily have wanted to get something going on your slot to seem towny i.e. a catchup rather than sit and do nothing and risk people joining the wagon
I don't know how your mind works so I can't comment on if you were afraid of elimination, but you seem pretty afraid of it now

[Elements]

okay and how is solving the big hood going? do you really believe that i am more likely to be a scums than either ydrasse or aristeia right now?

voting you could just win the game for me
voting Ari/Ydra could get me insta night killed

[Elements]

Bloop

[Elements]

voting me can’t win the game tho and i am asking the likelihood of that to you

as far as I know, it can

[Elements]

and getting nightkilled is fine and good?

like solve your hood get nightkilled is super beneficial don’t understand

I'd rather play

[Elements]

so do you really think i’m 60+% to be mafia right now

I don't think Dann, Daisy, Knott or Fire are red
So to me you or meuh and ari or Ydra are the same

[Elements]

UNVOTE:

Who do you want to flip today?

[Elements]

so do you really think i’m 60+% to be mafia right now

I don't think Dann, Daisy, Knott or Fire are red
So to me you or meuh and ari or Ydra are the same

?? how could you possibly be 100% sure that all of those slots are town?

like what from fireisredsir or dannflor or even a frayed knot says definitely town? like maybe meta stuff with oops ordaisy you could in theory be that confident but the others?

[Elements]

Ari, would you still be interested in a knott wagon?

[Elements]

Fire/Ydra

[Elements]

VOTE: Fire

[Elements]

yes we have established fire is my wolf partner already

but are you fire's?

[Elements]

VOTE: shiki
E-1

[Elements]

How is your sorting of me going?

[Elements]

i can see a world where this is town shiki

I'm getting very "why is Elements going this I don't understand the point" vibes from shiki

[Elements]

i can see a world where this is town shiki

I'm getting very "why is Elements going this I don't understand the point" vibes from shiki

wdym?

It's hard to explain
Mine and Shiki's interaction felt very much that I was in control and Shiki didn't know what I was trying to get at or do

[Elements]

VOTE: shiki
E-1

this is e-2 btw

I can count

[Elements]

but uh, why does that make me a scums??

I never said it did

[Elements]

VOTE: shiki
E-1

this is e-2 btw

Have I been voting wagons thinking I've been e-1ing when I've actually been e-2ing !!

[Elements]

but uh, why does that make me a scums??

I never said it did

It's implied that I think you're red, it's not implied why I think you are
sigh but you’re voting me so it’s implied

[Elements]

still need to look at elements games to get better thought there as my game with scum!elements was extremely far from this one but a long time ago dunno if representative

Which game was it?

[Elements]

Oh wow that was a while ago

[Elements]

wait actually!!!!

nah it's so hard for me to see most of you believing that a scumteam of jupiter/aristeia or jupiter/ydrasse or jupiter/elements

sent jupiter to the large neighbourhood

It's hard for you to see your slot being put in the big hood if you were red?
Forgive me for thinking you might be a tad biased on that one

[Elements]

like what would scum plan have been?

The red team sometimes don't have a plan

[Elements]

i see shiki trying to convince elements not to vote shiki

i don't really see shiki trying to sort elements

I think this is still true

[Elements]

You've been in the game 24 hours and have the second most posts yet off the top of my head I can think of any stances you've taken

[Elements]

I am considering things
I'm just not saying what they are because I think your continuing to defend yourself will probably be more telling

[Elements]

Or you're red and your partner doesn't want to defend you because that would be too telling so they're just hoping you can talk your way out of this

[Elements]

Or you're red and your partner doesn't want to defend you because that would be too telling so they're just hoping you can talk your way out of this

okay but once again why would this have been the split if i were red? like have you thought about that at all? or are you just not going to?

My thoughts on the red team putting me in the little hood is that I can be an easy mislim at times
I don't know any players well enough other than Daisy to even begin to speculate on who would want to be in what hood and why

[Elements]

also if i were red i simply would not be in this position

Why?

[Elements]

Do you always get this defensive when you're pushed day 1?

[Elements]

Or you're red and your partner doesn't want to defend you because that would be too telling so they're just hoping you can talk your way out of this

okay but once again why would this have been the split if i were red? like have you thought about that at all? or are you just not going to?

My thoughts on the red team putting me in the little hood is that I can be an easy mislim at times

I don't know any players well enough other than Daisy to even begin to speculate on who would want to be in what hood and why

what players would be aware of this fact

Great question