Mini Normal 2329: complex. [game over!]

[Dannflor]

I was gung-ho, I admit it. But that is just me day 1. I don't enjoy day 1, I think it is random at best or tilted in favour of scum in all likelihood, and I just want to get through it as quickly as possible to get to night 1 so that the game can start properly.

I think you can speculate, bit we've all been scum and chosen reasons for a night kill that when we see town trying to work things out they are hopelessly wrong.
Later on for sure, but night 1 not so much

like literally

EBWOP

[KayJayQueue]

geraint on d1: i like to get to night 1 so that the game can start properly

also geraint on d2: speculating later on might be useful, after only night 1 not so much

Exactly what frustrated me earlier:

Checking in quickly.
Not sure of the night kill, but I ain't going to waste time speculating on the reasoning.

So you think day 1 is a waste of time, you don’t want to speculate on what happened at night…what exactly

is

worth your time then?

[Psyche]

but it seems to me like an artificial narrowing
could just as easily propose we pick 5 slots at random and vote between those and say it "narrows it down considerably"
unless you're that confident that all the scum voted the given away

i think it's somewhat reasonable to assume there are more scum on wagon since the night kill was someone off wagon

unless you're a vig truther

i think scum can around as often try to avoid figuring prominently on doomed wagons
i did some analyses about this once upon a time and it did seem that scum somewhat systematically avoid being the driving force or hammer behind D1 mislims, and the converse for successful lims
small effect sizes but is arguably the best reason to townread NAS at this point

[Psyche]

gera looks like an easy scumread but it feels like bait. 354 is reasonably consistent w/ the rest of his iso

[Dannflor]

i think scum can around as often try to avoid figuring prominently on doomed wagons
i did some analyses about this once upon a time and it did seem that scum somewhat systematically avoid being the driving force or hammer behind D1 mislims, and the converse for successful lims
small effect sizes but is arguably the best reason to townread NAS at this point

i mean i tend to agree, and i was very vocal about this D1 and why i was searching for someone avoiding the doomed wagon

but then klick got killed and all the people left off the wagon are generally towny

[Psyche]

i mean that's fine w me in itself. am of course in favor of the principle of limming away from townreads.

[davesaz]

honestly maybe add dave to my pool

[davesaz/titus/geraintm/PC]

I'm reasonably confident everyone else is town at this point

I think Klick was the most likely player to stand in the way of Hu Tao getting run over today and that might've been why he was killed idk

he was also just very towny

VOTE: dann

[davesaz]

VOTE: Titus

[Dannflor]

sorry dave for what it's worth i don't feel super strongly about you either way

idk if that makes it better or worse

[Datisi]

vote count 2.05

with 11 votes in play, it takes 6 to make a decision. day 2 ends in (expired on 2024-03-09 17:15:00).

yeet

NotAScum [3]:

Hu Tao, Aristeia, Titus

Titus [3]:

Dannflor, Political Clout, davesaz

Aristeia [1]:

Random Nurse

Hu Tao [1]:

NotAScum

not voting [3]:

geraintm, KayJayQueue, Psyche

mod notes

Titus is v/la during the weekend.
fun fact: all flavour images this game have been provided by our wonderful backup mod GeorgeBailey!

flavour

[Hu Tao]

hu tao why are you town reading titus and PC

Drew I liked before he left with his questions. Titus I like her vibe. When she was scum before she was obvious in the last game I was in with her. PC I'm just pretty confident in. I don't think he's scum based on end of day yesterday and how he approached me.

[Hu Tao]

tinfoil hat I think someone gave nas those things to post. they feel like two different people posting today and yesterday.

Maybe

[Hu Tao]

let's say I have this belief. That we should kill on the wagon. let's also say that people on the first hammered wagon are a lot of the same people on the second wagon today. and let's say that everyone is doing whatever they want. will a statistical proof or essay change anyones mind that we should for sure kill on the wagon since it is most probably that scum are on that wagon since it aligns with their win con and that we should reexamine our reads of the people on the wagons.

- love, light, and peace
PC

I agree. Which is why we are going for NAS

[Hu Tao]

honestly maybe add dave to my pool

[davesaz/titus/geraintm/PC]

I'm reasonably confident everyone else is town at this point

I think Klick was the most likely player to stand in the way of Hu Tao getting run over today and that might've been why he was killed idk

he was also just very towny

VOTE: dann

VOTE: Titus

?

[Psyche]

hmmm i wonder what rn is up to. i like to think he's having a peaceful day relaxing with people he loves. or maybe he's reading berserk just like me

[Aristeia]

our king has abandoned us

[davesaz]

Hopefully RN is catching up on the sleep he said he was short of.

[Dannflor]

Which is why we are going for NAS

you did not read his post

[Titus]

but it seems to me like an artificial narrowing
could just as easily propose we pick 5 slots at random and vote between those and say it "narrows it down considerably"
unless you're that confident that all the scum voted the given away

All scum would likely not vote a certain way unless a PR was threatened. Scum may prefer something but are unlikely to overload.

[Titus]

but it seems to me like an artificial narrowing
could just as easily propose we pick 5 slots at random and vote between those and say it "narrows it down considerably"
unless you're that confident that all the scum voted the given away

i think it's somewhat reasonable to assume there are more scum on wagon since the night kill was someone off wagon

unless you're a vig truther

Strong disagree. Scum being off wagon with resistance to a counter at all suggests scum didn't give a damn.

I.e. You.

[Titus]

I'll just say this. I am a gated roleblocker. I roleblocked Dann and scum are scared. If Klick is a vig kill, Dann did the scumkill. I've eluded to it but scum Dann is pissed.

[davesaz]

PC's over reliance on pushing people who are on "both wagons" seems like TMI, since a) we don't know if the 2nd wagon is on town, and b) the 2nd wagon is on the person who hammered the 1st wagon.

In case you haven't been following, PC's second wagon is an older point in time on the NAS wagon. Furthermore, there isn't any adaptation of that analysis based on wagon movement either yesterday or today, it's taking two static points in time.

[Titus]

I'm replacing Ari with PC in my scumreads based on recent posting. Davesaz is regrettably town probably.

[davesaz]

I'll just say this. I am a gated roleblocker. I roleblocked Dann and scum are scared. If Klick is a vig kill, Dann did the scumkill. I've eluded to it but scum Dann is pissed.

If true, very unnecessary to out this at this point in the day.

[Titus]

PC's over reliance on pushing people who are on "both wagons" seems like TMI, since a) we don't know if the 2nd wagon is on town, and b) the 2nd wagon is on the person who hammered the 1st wagon.

In case you haven't been following, PC's second wagon is an older point in time on the NAS wagon. Furthermore, there isn't any adaptation of that analysis based on wagon movement either yesterday or today, it's taking two static points in time.

I can go for this.