Mini Normal 2329: complex. [game over!]

[Aristeia]

i dont even think its a good post

[Psyche]

haa that makes sense. don't know why i didn't anticipate you'd feel that way

[Aristeia]

if shes mafia with hu it makes a lot of sense for her to be dismissive.

[Random Nurse]

I don't think Aristeia is Scum.

Psyche hasn't been pinging my Scumdar, and has been front-in-center quite a bit. Makes me think Town. If Scum congrats, you're fooling me.

Dead thread may be yelling at me over that bit.

[Aristeia]

psyche is conftown because hes the vigilante and vigilantes cant be mafia in normals

[Random Nurse]

How possible is it that PC could be Scum?

10%?

[Random Nurse]

psyche is conftown because hes the vigilante and vigilantes cant be mafia in normals

How exactly do we know Psyche isn't Scum claiming to be a Vig?

[Psyche]

now doing a sequence of posts about why gera should be positively scumread, even if you treat his inactivity and claim as null:

vote count 1.06

with 13 votes in play, it takes 7 to make a decision. day 1 ends in (expired on 2024-03-04 01:00:00).

yeet

Hu Tao [5]:

Naerys, Aristeia, NotAScum, Dannflor, geraintm

Klick [2]:

davesaz, Political Clout

Naerys [2]:

Hu Tao, KayJayQueue

Psyche [1]:

Doctor Drew

not voting [3]:

Random Nurse

, Klick, Psyche

vote count 1.final

with 13 votes in play, it took 7 to make a decision. day 1 ended.

yeet

Naerys [7]:

Random Nurse

, davesaz, geraintm, Hu Tao, Titus, Aristeia, NotAScum

[HAMMER]

NotAScum [2]:

Dannflor, Klick

not voting [4]:

Naerys, KayJayQueue, Political Clout, Psyche

vote count 2.07

with 11 votes in play, it takes 6 to make a decision. day 2 ends in (expired on 2024-03-09 17:15:00).

yeet

NotAScum [4]:

Hu Tao, Aristeia, Titus, Dannflor

Political Clout [1]:

davesaz

Aristeia [1]:

Random Nurse

Hu Tao [1]:

NotAScum

Dannflor [1]:

Political Clout

not voting [3]:

geraintm, KayJayQueue, Psyche

AS i said i would, looking at the wagons from yesterday and today to see what info can be gleaned.

These are the 3 biggest wagons.

Titus (Doctor Drew) - On Naerys and NAS
Hu Tao - On Naerys and NAS
NotAScum - On both yesterday
Aristeia - On all 3!
geraintm - On both yesterday
Political Clout - Off all 3!
KayJayQueue - Off all 3!
Dannflor - On Hu Toa and NAS
davesaz - On Naerys
Psyche - Off all 3!

My god that is weird.

Political Clout, KJQ and Psyche not on any of them
Aristeia was on all of them. They also had a very weird public meltdown.

I think i am trusting Titus' claim at the moment (a roleblocker with limitations).
{Are there any other claims?}

With the struggles we have had pushing through eliminations, maybe because scum are sitting off so much and not being on any? I can see it being a 2 scum off the elimination yesterday.

I think when i next have some time i'll look at the 3 who haven't touched any of the wagons and see why.

this is gera's one attempt at substantive content
even if you squint, there's nothing here
furthermore, gera never follows up, provides reads, anything
maybe he's that bad, but another guess is that he's not really seeking reads.
i think badtown gera would have ultimately posted some reads, but they would have been mediocre.

[Aristeia]

psyche is conftown because hes the vigilante and vigilantes cant be mafia in normals

How exactly do we know Psyche isn't Scum claiming to be a Vig?

we know there has to be a vigilante because there were two deaths at night

we did a mass claim and nobody else has claimed vigilante

[Aristeia]

this is gera's one attempt at substantive content
even if you squint, there's nothing here
furthermore, gera never follows up, provides reads, anything
maybe he's that bad, but another guess is that he's not really seeking reads.
i think badtown gera would have ultimately posted some reads, but they would have been mediocre.

I am not saying Gera isn't scummy af or that we shouldn't lim him

I am fine with limming gera

I am talking about who the scum team is if Gera flips town because that is what i am worried about

[Aristeia]

I couldn't sleep it's 6 am and instead of trying to force myself to sleep I've gone to my computer to talk about why I think Kay's post is p bad because you seem to think its amazing

"I think these postulations are inaccurate and/or forcing reads to fit the narrative of the specific theory."

What inaccuracies or forcing reads is she even talking about??? Like what did I even write that is inaccurate????

Hu Tao asked ME what I found scummy about her - I responded to Hu Tao with a list of the things I found scummy about her. How is me answering a question "forcing a read" to "fit a narrative" like this sentence is frankly nonsense

[Aristeia]

"I UNDERSTAND Ari’s getting from point A to B and making this list but she’s pushing her personal feelings about some of these situations onto Hu."

claiming that I'm "being emotional"

like ?!?!? what do emotions have to even do with this? is she implying that I'm suspicious of Hu Tao because I'm angry at her? Like what personal feelings is she even claiming I supposedly have?

If anything I've been fustrated by other people sure but when did I get upset at Hu Tao?

I think Hu Tao is mafia - I don't get upset at people who I think are mafia who are

playing to their win condition

- I get upset at people that I think are town and doing really badly.

[Random Nurse]

psyche is conftown because hes the vigilante and vigilantes cant be mafia in normals

How exactly do we know Psyche isn't Scum claiming to be a Vig?

we know there has to be a vigilante because there were two deaths at night

we did a mass claim and nobody else has claimed vigilante

Fine.

I would be amazed and angered if the real Vig didn't CC Day 3.

[Random Nurse]

So, not me, not Psyche, not PC?

Anyone else off the table?

I don't think it's Aristeia.

So who's left?

Gera, Titus, Kay, Hu Tao?

Who else?

[Aristeia]

"We can’t largely base scum theories on why someone is doing something/it being different from what one person would do/is doing/is feeling in the same situation."


this is just more word salad ?

she's saying we can't apply a general theory of scumhunting to someone because all people are different.

so basically I can't say that Hu Tao doing X is scummy because even if X is "generally scummy" what is generally right might not apply in this specific instance.

which is just more obfuscation? like if we can't call people scummy for doing scummy things then wtf r we supposed to even be doing in this game?

[Random Nurse]

I'm inclined to vote Gera.

[Aristeia]

"I believe a lot of this was fueled by emotion and wanting to find a scumtell or 5."

goes back to discrediting me and claiming I'm just being emotional and shouldn't be taken seriously.

I'm sorry this is one of the worst defenses of another player I have ever read and I have absolutely no idea why you would think this is town!indicative.

[Psyche]

here are some posts from maybe the longest extended exchange gera had (with me and others about his nihilistic attitude re:D1)

For me, whether a lim has to be forced by deadline is the rule of thumb for whether it was difficult to achieve. Post counts not really a factor. Naeyrs's lim happened well before it thanks to a couple players prioritizing ending D1 over making sure town was making a good choice.

We were never making a good choice yesterday

this fits with gera's meta

For me, whether a lim has to be forced by deadline is the rule of thumb for whether it was difficult to achieve. Post counts not really a factor. Naeyrs's lim happened well before it thanks to a couple players prioritizing ending D1 over making sure town was making a good choice.

We were never making a good choice yesterday

just how strong is your NAS townread?

When did I say I had a strong townread on not a scum?

practically asserts a NAS nullread. think gera would look more town here if he said he hadn't read or digested the thread enough to have a take on NAS or other slots. instead, he's implying he has reads! that's scummy itself -- i don't believe he has any at this point.

but let's consider further context:
NAS was at least a plausible lim on D1; slightly different decisions and it would've happened.
There were other plausible lims -- PC, hutao -- but NAS was the second most supported lim by hammer.
"We were never making a good choice yesterday" implies a belief in understanding of the thinking behind

all

these wagons, and rejection of all that thinking.
This is untenable for a couple reasons:
- There's no way gera has engaged with thread to understand all these wagons, or enough of them to say this.
- There's no way an absolute nihilist about town's ability to lim above chance D1 is

at the same time

confident enough in his ability to evaluate justifications for scumreads to make such a declaration

To summarize, it takes a high level of cognitive doubt to have gera's attitude about D1, and I don't think it's consistent w declarations like these. Especially without high engagement with thread that would resolve such doubts.

We were never making a good choice yesterday

That’s a weird thing to seem certain about, or am I just reading into it too much. Hmm.

A good choice has strong logic behind it. Day 1 there is never strong logic behind an elimination, it is 10 guts and 3 scum pushing who they want.

This is gera's synthesis that answers the issues raised about post 2013. It's internally consistent in itself. It even explains how gera can say such a thing without even reading the thread. This is enough to make me waver on the scumread, but ultimately it doesn't address the dissonance between his cognitive doubt about town's D1 abilities and his confidence here and in the problematic post. Suggests to me someone hiding behind his meta, but a flanderized view of it that discards all nuance and depth in it. We receive gera's attitude about mafia, but not the kind of person who'd have it.

not sure if this kind of reasoning appeals any better than "this person's most substantive contribution to this game are shit and incomplete" though

[Aristeia]

So, not me, not Psyche, not PC?

Anyone else off the table?

I don't think it's Aristeia.

So who's left?

Gera, Titus, Kay, Hu Tao?

Who else?

I don't think there's anyone else at the table

[Psyche]

i guess it's clear at this point in the game we uh have different read styles it seems, ari
we're maybe not getting over that bridge today
best reassurance i can give is that it probably doesn't matter at this point:
the gera read is probably good, and enough to make the rest of the game easy mode

[Psyche]

think it'll be helpful to have someone reasonably skeptical of kay around tomorrow

[Psyche]

i guess hutao is willing to be that person too though if it comes to it

[Aristeia]

I'm fine with yeeting Gera if you don't want to talk further.

I was just really annoyed you thought that was a good post when it was full of vague word salad nonsense and tried to discredit me by claiming I'm being emotional or whatever

[Aristeia]

i guess hutao is willing to be that person too though if it comes to it

if gera is town, then hu tao + kay is probly the scum team

[KayJayQueue]

How possible is it that PC could be Scum?

10%?

I trust you all to know about the ins and outs of this but is there literally any possible way I’m given a “PC is aligned with the town” if he’s not actually town? I assumed it was a 100% confirmation.