Mini 2331 - Touhou UPick: Anonymous Edition (Game Over)

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I'm bored, someone post

[Aya Shameimaru]

Okay here is my base thought right now.

I never wanna kill Yuuka.

I always think Reisen is scum.

And I'm deciding wherher I want to murder Kaguya or Kagerou, or if I just cop out and murder the caught scum and let y'all decide what to do about that tomorrow.

lol

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Going into N2:
Dai townreaders:

1. Yuuka
   
2. Koishi
   
3. Clownpiece
   
4. Kaguya
   
5. Sanae

Dai haters:

1. Aya

More people probably expressed Dai reads but I'm phoneposting so looking up reads is hard. Dai was def townread enough to be shot N2 if Clownpiece/Aya/Koishi were considered off limits.
Clownpiece claimed charged commuter so would externally be off limits. Koishi claimed to only be able to swap the bound target once so that'd be a pretty obvious spellcard soft; might have been read as off limits by having extra effects which would also make Aya off limits?

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Okay here is my base thought right now.

I never wanna kill Yuuka.

I always think Reisen is scum.

And I'm deciding wherher I want to murder Kaguya or Kagerou, or if I just cop out and murder the caught scum and let y'all decide what to do about that tomorrow.

lol

{Yuuka}
{Reisen}
{Kagerou}

is around where I'm at. Wanna go for the ego play and kill Kagerou here?

[Aya Shameimaru]

We'll I would have to rule you out first

[Kaguya Houraisan]

We'll I would have to rule you out first

Whats the Kaguya scumcase/Kagerou towncase

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Actually on second thought just drop the full cases on both of us, centering the convo around disputing the Kaguya scumcase/Kagerou towncase without bringing up the Kaguya towncase/Kagerou scumcase makes the rhetoric harder

[Aya Shameimaru]

I'm not really going to do cases, lol. I'm solving and if you wanna convince me feel free.

But points for points has never helped me.

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Tragic, points for points is my strongest technique

How much do you think the game makes sense setup-wise if Kagerou is town? There's like 6+ ways for town to stop a kill with a mix of actives and spellcards and so far we've only seen a single spellblock from scum to counter that

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Second question: The Tenshi kill is "justifiable". Is it town justifiable or scum justifiable, especially compared to alternative kills

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Third question: How congruent is Kagerou's "wait I need to verify" attitude of yesterday with her "Yeah Yuuka is scum instavote" of today

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Did... did somebody redirect the scum NIGHT KILL onto larva, and the vig shot was just true on Tenshi? (which, terrible shot lmfao dude was obvtown as shit by end of day)

obvtown sounds like a bit much but ok maybe it wasn't the best shot i could've done

Right, keep forgetting about that

Kagerou can you elaborate on why you thought Tenshi was so scummy / worthy to be vigged?

Sure can !

Basically it's no secret that i already was scumreading Tenshi, for reasons that i could gather up if you want

her EoD also seemed extremely non-commital? Like, saying a lot of stuff and it's contrary, which was the spot where i expected scum to sit, especially considering she was apparently a bit exhausted at that time (me too) it just didn't fit in my eyes

I also like, didn't recall mentions of outstanding towniness about Tenshi from other people so it made me feel good about the shot at least shrinking down the PoE's size

And there also was a bit of hoping i would get the honors of actually having been correct on the wagon i tried to push through earlier in the game

This contrast specifically is illustrative of the scum justifiable-type shot. The mask slips in 3255 while there's a huge justification wall that they have later (Which if you have all of these justifications you'd presumably disagree that it's a bad shot)

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Lurking out day 2 with zero attempt to solve is also where I'd expect scum to be wrt Sanae

[Kaguya Houraisan]

my other spellcard was stardust reverie which would allow me to enter into a neighborhood and if it was temporary i would make it permanent, i used it on Aya and it did nothing

Oh right this too

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Does old!Kagerou's reaction of the Dai return and accuse look like a townie reaction or does it look like a "become deepwolf" reaction

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Specifically comparing the early positions of

VOTE: Kaguya Houraisan

I kinda like Kaguya's reaction to having her passive disabled, it shows as pretty uniformed imo

although this game kinda is a headache

i'm struggling to see how Kaguya makes this kill when she would be very much aware it strongly points to her

Kaguya : big WIFOM slot that makes my head hurt, mechanically scum but i very much like her tone and idk if that's something scum would be able to go for

To

It's simple: do you think stopping a scum kill on Aya/Koishi while in a hood with Clown would get me in the towncore? If yes then the numbers work out so that one person in the towncore survives til 3p ELO/4p MELO regardless of the results of Clownpiece's cop check

Not necessarily no?

The plan could also very well be for you to buy as much time as possible for the last mafia who is in a better position than you

Ok maybe this is just me being contrarian but i feel like scum explicitely shooting their own foot to mess with town is in everyone's thoughts enough for this plan to not stick you forever in the townsphere basically

it would give you most towncred than me / reisen / even marisa maybe i'll admit that much

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Those last two posts in particular have the heavy tone of "I'm talking to town that I need to prove wrong" type of scumposting where you accidentally treat the person you're talking to as town while points for pointsing

[Yuuka Kazami]

And just like that Aya has gone from 50/50 to 66% chance of hitting scum.

Is it even possible to win here if Reisen is town. I don’t know if they can show they’re town tbh.

Reisen, sup?

[Yuuka Kazami]

5815 i disagree with. Kagerou can be scum, but not really for those posts. It’s too subtle to really tell. You say it’s a strong tone but to me, it’s barely a whisper, if that.

[Yuuka Kazami]

Lurking out day 2 with zero attempt to solve is also where I'd expect scum to be wrt Sanae

Job stuff. Whether they’d have played this way as town while having job stuff as opposed to scum stuff is only a meta thing and I’d be hard pressed even for players I’m familiar with to bet right on that.

[Yuuka Kazami]

The justification of the shot is hard for me. I don’t have much experience with scum vigs. To me the tone was a little wonky, they neither came off as super defensive nor did it seem, like they did anything with the shot.

I might be projecting but usually my reads change/twist based on a shot because you try to justify a miss. Or go with a shot that, at least, gives you high information.

Tenshi wasn’t really that.

[Yuuka Kazami]

Hypothetical:

Reisen: if you’re town the scum team is exactly Kagerou/Kaguya. If you look into it you may be able to put the pieces together. I can’t because I’m not you.

Kaguya: if you’re town the scum team is exactly kagerou/Kaguya. Why are you going after Kagerou first?

Kagerou: if you’re town the scum team is exactly Kaguya/Reisen. If you can, I hope that clicks for you.

[Yuuka Kazami]

Sigh, Kagerou/reisen.

[Yuuka Kazami]

I do find the unlikeliest team to be Kagerou/Kaguya.

One small thing is mech spec complaining being kind of a weird push on your scum partner.

[Yuuka Kazami]

Okay here is my base thought right now.

I never wanna kill Yuuka.

I always think Reisen is scum.

And I'm deciding wherher I want to murder Kaguya or Kagerou, or if I just cop out and murder the caught scum and let y'all decide what to do about that tomorrow.

lol

{Yuuka}
{Reisen}
{Kagerou}

is around where I'm at. Wanna go for the ego play and kill Kagerou here?

Points please. No this isn’t a scum brag thing or a wink thing. I just want levels of confidence.