Mini Normal 2334: trees (Day 5)

[Klick]

Bloop

[Klick]

Hu's scumread on KJQ feels as fake as her scumread on Dann. I understand the concept of wanting to give a replacement a chance to salvage the slot but she disregarded her KJQ scumread so easily. It doesn't feel like a natural reaction to me

I was about to dispute this as a harsh read of the situation, as I didn't think Hu Tao strongly scumread Kay and just felt weird about her, and the unvote made sense if she did genuinely think she would feel more confident reading you later.

I reread the Kay vote though, and that didn't seem to be the case, that felt like a "I'm pretty sure you're scum" reason for a vote.
I think I'm inclined to agree with you because of that.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Hu Tao

So at some point Thomith goes from this to being a main reason for the awesomeming flip?

[Klick]

Thomith where are your reads at currently

All over the place I'm struggling to get into this game.

I townread Dann.

I townread ming I think because their "OMGUS" suspicion on Rational did seem like he was trying to solve.

I think Rational may be town because of the amount of resistance he is receiving, but that could be a personality thing which makes me less sure.

I disliked Elements early but feel better about them more recently I think.

I dislike CCS and Nick.
Goofball needs to do more.

I think Dann/Gibdo are probably the same alignment based on how they interacted earlier in Day 1 (I'll find the post where I explained this before)

If Hu Tao is scum maybe Salty is town because of the early scum read Hu Tao had there?

I just find everything Thom says so removed from any indication that he genuinely believes it
These thoughts feel like they were generated upon Black asking for them

[Hu Tao]

I would not be surprised at all to find out that RationalMadman is a Random Nurse alt

No way lmao

[Thomith]

Thomith where are your reads at currently

All over the place I'm struggling to get into this game.

I townread Dann.

I townread ming I think because their "OMGUS" suspicion on Rational did seem like he was trying to solve.

I think Rational may be town because of the amount of resistance he is receiving, but that could be a personality thing which makes me less sure.

I disliked Elements early but feel better about them more recently I think.

I dislike CCS and Nick.
Goofball needs to do more.

I think Dann/Gibdo are probably the same alignment based on how they interacted earlier in Day 1 (I'll find the post where I explained this before)

If Hu Tao is scum maybe Salty is town because of the early scum read Hu Tao had there?

I just find everything Thom says so removed from any indication that he genuinely believes it
These thoughts feel like they were generated upon Black asking for them

I do this as either alignment - When asked for reads I go through my current thoughts and produce the reads I currently have.
They weren't "generated" or made up, I was just prompted for my thoughts so provided them at that point.

[Klick]

VC 1.14

awesomeming327 (5):

RationalMadman 266, DrippingGoofball 594, Dannflor 1153, Thomith 1156, Black 792

Dannflor (4):

Elements 997, camelCasedSnivy 1001, Hu Tao 1026, DrNickRiviera 1030

Hu Tao (1):

Grovyle in a Fedora 736

RationalMadman (1):

awesomeming327 412

Not Voting:

Gibdo 604, ActionDan 1012

With 13 alive it takes 7 to eliminate.

Deadline:

(expired on 2024-04-17 20:15:00)

Notes: Grovyle in a Fedora is V/LA until 4/14 8pm EDT

This is a really perplexing VC

I think everyone on the Dann wagon is quite towny

The logical conclusions from this are:

1. I'm wrong about someone in {Elements, Hu Tao, NickRiviera} (this is definitely worth looking into)
2. Scum were incentivised in some way to either bus, or were noncommittal for some reason.

[Klick]

I would not be surprised at all to find out that RationalMadman is a Random Nurse alt

No way lmao

I am 100% serious btw
The stubborn insistence that everyone listen to him, the intense fear of wagons getting near elimination because of RN's trauma around your quicklim in that one game, the confident conjecture based on stuff that people do based on their personalities
It adds up scarily well

[Klick]

1172 is WILD to me after everything that has come from Hu Tao.

VOTE: awesomeming327

I want to hear some really innocent-sounding arguments from awesomeming specifically regarding why he's reading Hu Tao as town and why he thinks "progression with dann is also good".

I quite like this. It doesn't feel like a bus vote

[Klick]

We lost a neighborizer, well that sucks.

Prediction: awesoming was bus'ed by both their buddies. That slot was more useful as a source of town cred than alive.

I really like this thought process post- awesomeming death

[Klick]

I want to sheep DGB's reads at the beginning of this phase I think that was a good solve

[Klick]

VOTE: Hu Tao

One day you'll stop scum reading me every game and actually try to read me and see if I'm town or not

This is town.

DGB with the banger posts today

[Klick]

CCS "case":

A swing and a miss on Thomith:

475 is not sufficiently backed up by 609. 225 does nothing to further the claim of "trying to get a vote" on elements. It is on its surface only applying logic to lessen a potential scumread on Thomith by elements. Likewise 630 is neither here nor there in the context of the broader dialogue between Thomith and Elements early game and the question posed is making a comparison between unlike things namely Thomith's treatment of Elements and Elements treatment of RM.

695 is quite bad, even worse now that Awesomeming has flipped scum. First RM's case/read on Awesomeming never had any bite or logic behind it, so "getting behind it" and piggybacking on RM's content already would show a lack of care about the read. If the read was formed independently and didn't hinge on anything RM has said then RM breathing down ming's neck shouldn't come into account regardless.

posts 693 1008 and 1080 taken together do not mesh well if the cynicism for Hu Tao is overridden by Dann's progression on that slot.

Also its been said but calling DGB's reads TMI doesn't follow a logical perspective either.

The only thing that would make me even slightly hesitant is that this slot is so comically linked to Awesomeming's that I'd think scum would be more cautious.

You guys are more than welcome to eat Hu's lunch but flipping this slot has got to be the correct play.

I think this is a townie pushing something they care about, despite knowing it's wrong

[Klick]

Black Page 60 vibes towny

I have quite a few straight townreads without a super confident solve

[DrippingGoofball]

Cautiously liking Klick so far.

[Klick]

Awesomeming gave up. He didn't vote Dannflor who we now know is/was Town. He simply outed 'I am tracker' and didn't even try to fake reads.

I think this is probably true.

In hindsight, there's probably a lot to read into when Awesomeming noticeably gave up, and what interactions around him were like at that time

[DrippingGoofball]

VOTE: DGB

The scum has summoned me!

[DrippingGoofball]

Awesomeming gave up. He didn't vote Dannflor who we now know is/was Town. He simply outed 'I am tracker' and didn't even try to fake reads.

I think this is probably true.

In hindsight, there's probably a lot to read into when Awesomeming noticeably gave up, and what interactions around him were like at that time

That's why "statistically" I can see more buddies near the caboose than the locomotive, but on the other hand they may have given up because they already felt the lack of support from their team mates.

[Klick]

So I'm effectively caught up

hi i wont be able to post until tomorrow

welcome klick, I personally see gibido as genuinely towny esp with how they shared dann's thoughts putting them firmly into townpile, and wrt KJQ i put that down as someone demotivated by RM's play (which I sympathize with) + black and thomith both effectively swung the momentum towards awesome (away from hu tao i might add while dann was a wagon) which I feel effectively places them as town.

why do you think hu tao is not PoE material?

I don't think the timing or execution of the Black or Thomith votes when they happened are clearing

[Klick]

I'm going to sleep on my thoughts on this game. I marathoned through it a bit, and my reading kept getting interrupted by pages of arguing about exactly how good a player RationalMadman is

This is tentatively where I am

TOWN

Enchant
Hu Tao
DrippingGoofball

PROBABLY TOWN

Elements
DrNickRiviera
Grovyle in a Fedora

NOT AS CONFIDENT

Black
ActionDan

SCUM

Thomith

VOTE: Thomith

[Klick]

Oh yes Gibdo exists
I'd put them like... in between the two middle tiers. I spent most of the readthrough thinking they were super null and very PoE. Their vote on Awesomeming doesn't feel like a natural bus, but I don't think that's super convincing in hindsight compared to what other players have that's towny for them. I am willing to sheep others on them being town but I don't actually have that much conviction in that read myself.

[Grovyle in a Fedora]

VOTE: klick

[Grovyle in a Fedora]

biggest fumble of a replace in I've seen for a while.
Good effort though , it'll convince some people.

The Hu tao reasoning is extremely shallow and contrived

[Grovyle in a Fedora]

I'm pretty sure this is Hu Tao's town game
I have a pretty good track record of reading Hu Tao
I have a fairly limited experience with her as scum, but I also think she has a really clear town perspective when she is town

Like this is something not real at all, and the push on thomith is entirely based on his play being "weird" imo.

I'm impressed by the weaving here but if you think past "lots of words" you quickly see what this slot is pushing an agenda to save Hu tao. I'm going to abandon pushing Hu tao for now just in case it's a white knight and we can test after they're dead, but this is the optimal kill today.

[Grovyle in a Fedora]

the entirety of klicks reads can be boiled down to how others are reading the Hu tao slot. Klicks agenda is to either forcefully save Hu tao or tie themselves to the slot.

Hard to tell.before flips.

One thing for sure is that dgb, thomith, and black are all unpaired 100% from klick/ccs at this point based on how he is talking about them here

[Hu Tao]

VOTE: groyvle