Mini 1316 - Last Will Mafia IV (Over)

LlamaFluff · Post Post #1275 (ISO) » Fri Jun 01, 2012 11:03 am

Vote Count

Magua (3) - Voidedmafia
fishythefish (1) - DCLXVI

No Voting (9) - kortul, Magua, Debonair Danny DiPietro, rhinox, fishythefish

With 13 votes it takes 7 to lynch

Debonair Danny DiPietro · Post Post #1276 (ISO) » Fri Jun 01, 2012 6:03 pm

I just keep coming back to Rhinox; I especially hate the response early today when other players were trying to clear him about his response and I disagreed pointing out his response to SA was trivial. And he pointed out that same thing and said he shouldn't be given town credit for it and I have no doubt that's probably true it's just the fact that he says such things (and he said it to me once before on day one) is that they're pure pandering. I mean scum surely benefit from being perceived as town for whatever reason; but so does town and the fact that he insists on correcting things like that just makes me feel like the entire thing is a performance designed to elicit the best possible reaction. I'll review his play yesterday more in-depth to see what I think of it when I get a chance later.

Fishythefish · Post Post #1277 (ISO) » Fri Jun 01, 2012 9:03 pm

OK, I'm up for trusting the opinions of all the people who think Voided mason makes sense.

I don't think Rhinox's reaction says very much - it was an obvious fakeclaim, and I don't know how I'd expect town and scum reactions to it to differ at all. When asked today, it would be weird for Rhinox to say anything other than "I knew it was fake, and was just playing along".

I'm a bit nervous about putting Magua at L-2 when we have a few double voters and I want to read DCL more thoroughly, so I'll hold off voting until I get a chance to do that read.

kortul · Post Post #1278 (ISO) » Sun Jun 03, 2012 10:10 am

Quick post from kindle. Internet at home died on Saturday, will be fixed on Tuesday (national holiday tomorrow). LA until then.
Presented this way (Rhinox reaction) makes sense - then it is just proof of good player (ie logic/intellect), not an alignment tell.

Rhinox · Post Post #1279 (ISO) » Sun Jun 03, 2012 11:17 am

What do you guys think about massclaiming today? Maybe it could give us something to talk about.

Voidedmafia · Post Post #1280 (ISO) » Sun Jun 03, 2012 11:27 am

Besides getting some more talking points, what exactly would we get from that? How many other roles could there possibly be for town other than DDD's?

Rhinox · Post Post #1281 (ISO) » Sun Jun 03, 2012 11:36 am

I've never really been convinced that DDD's role is a role only town would have.

Massclaim might not give us anything but I don't think it can hurt us, so we might as well have everything out in the open. And if it does give us something to talk about that'd be great because this game is in a huge rut.

Voidedmafia · Post Post #1282 (ISO) » Sun Jun 03, 2012 11:42 am

DDD's role seems like it's a role either side could have, based on how I remember it being presented.

I can agree with the other paragraph, though. Mind starting things off?

Fishythefish · Post Post #1283 (ISO) » Sun Jun 03, 2012 11:44 am

In post 1279, Rhinox wrote:What do you guys think about massclaiming today? Maybe it could give us something to talk about.

Seems like a good idea - I can't see it helping the scum much given the claims we already have.

Rhinox · Post Post #1284 (ISO) » Sun Jun 03, 2012 1:38 pm

In post 1282, Voidedmafia wrote:Mind starting things off?

I don't mind

I am a no special power vanilla townie.

If we're popcorning, Magua can go next.

DCLXVI · Post Post #1285 (ISO) » Sun Jun 03, 2012 2:12 pm

I've got no problem with the massclaim that just started, I'll wait for my turn.

Magua · Post Post #1286 (ISO) » Sun Jun 03, 2012 2:21 pm

Working on post.

Spoiler alert: I'm a vanilla townie.

Magua · Post Post #1287 (ISO) » Sun Jun 03, 2012 2:21 pm

DCL can be next.

DCLXVI · Post Post #1288 (ISO) » Sun Jun 03, 2012 2:52 pm

Already claimed in post 948. On my phone so can't quote but I'm a vt and fishy can go next.

Magua · Post Post #1289 (ISO) » Sun Jun 03, 2012 5:39 pm

Spoiler: IIoA

Magua · Post Post #1290 (ISO) » Sun Jun 03, 2012 5:39 pm

God, this game.

I've spent the last few hours looking over the VCA, writing up a case on why Fishy is scum based on hopping on/off the

Macrophage

theomoaner wagon D1, then wandering off for a bit and coming back and reviewing and writing why Fishy is town for early bussage, and then wandering off, and etc.

This is actually the third revision of the post I've been trying to write, and I'm just saying fuck it all to conclusions and posting what I think about shit.

So, first things first. Fishy.

My prodding on Fishy was two-fold -- one, I can read him, from another site we used to play on, and I did (and still, to a point, do) find his posts to be scummy, hence my initial posts. After that, it was shit-stirring in the pot and an in general wanting to see what happened that kept my posts on him vague.

Also, I figured it would be more likely that I'd be seen as soft-claiming some investigation on him that way, and if I was right (I always think I'm right), more likely that I'd be NK'ed over someone who was actually a PR. (In retrospect, that was never going to happen with the masons, but whatever.)

Also also, I

was

am lazy.

Anyways, back to Fishy, and me looking over the VCA.

Point the first: Fishy starts on

Macrophage

theomoaner and stays there for a good long time at the start of D1. Seems town.
Point the second: Fishy puts him at L-1, then unvotes, telling him to get his will in order, then puts him at L-1 again, then jumps off in response to his claim. Never returns. Is on LastSurvivor briefly, then DDD the rest of the Day.

D2, gets on DDD, unvotes in response to claim, sits on DCLXVI.

The reasons for the votes and the unvotes I simply don't like, but unless the scumteam is Fishy/Macrophage/DDD and Fishy is the bussingest mofo around (and he's not), his behavior with both Macrophage's claim and DDD's claim is consistent. I'm leaning on the side of Fishy being town. I don't really want to do that (means I wasn't right), but there you go.

Rhinox: The thing that smells town to me about Rhinox isn't his hammer vote on Macrophage D2, it's him placing the 3rd vote on

Macrophage

theomoaner D1 in the runup that gets him to L-1.

DDD: See Rhinox. Now, DDD *may* be the bussingest mofo around (not entirely sure, to be honest), but his vote has been on Macrophage for pretty much most of D1 and all of D2 and, just, yeah, that seems too excessive for him to be scum.

This leads DCLXVI and kortul.

I want DCLXVI to be scum, but it just seems too *easy*, which makes me not like it (this also made me not like the Macrophage lynch, so). The one thing that immediately jumps out at me against DCLXVI-scum is, after DDD's claim in D2, he becomes the main counterwagon to Macrophage.

Kortul just fits easier for scum, though. Not in the limelight, not rocking the boat, just there. His 1v1 with DCLXVI at the end of D3 is odd (on DCL's side, too), and I'm still not sure what to make of it. However, reviewing the votes on Macrophage D1 and D2, I do not believe that DDD or Rhinox are bussing, I independently don't believe that Fishy is scum, so that means that at least one scum had to be bussing Macrophage (or it's a Fishy+DCL team, which, again, not seeing), and kortul is the odd man out.

VOTE: kortul

DCLXVI · Post Post #1291 (ISO) » Sun Jun 03, 2012 7:32 pm

In post 1287, Magua wrote:DCL can be next.

This post from magua feels townish.

I don't think scum would forget that I claimed vt earlier since they have motivation to keep track of claims (so that they can nk prs)

Fishythefish · Post Post #1292 (ISO) » Sun Jun 03, 2012 9:10 pm

In post 1290, Magua wrote:My prodding on Fishy was two-fold -- one, I can read him, from another site we used to play on, and I did (and still, to a point, do) find his posts to be scummy, hence my initial posts.

If you can read me using my play on that site, I am... astounded. I can't think of a more different format.

I'm a VT. kortul, you're up.

Debonair Danny DiPietro · Post Post #1293 (ISO) » Mon Jun 04, 2012 6:29 am

Spoiler:

So in my research that led to one of the biggest reasons I’m clearing Fishy I’ve actually found a reasonable amount of evidence for some of the basic VCA assumptions; namely that scum won’t be all on or off a wagon; violations of that principle happened exceedingly rarely in my dataset whether there be two scum or three (didn’t look at large games). Given my other assumptions this really makes rhinox stand out on that D1 vote count.

First thing is more numbers and while rhinox promises more content in his first post on D3 and he does provide it compared to his non-existance at the end of D2 he’s still under the average in terms of posts and a quick check says I had more posts than him and I’m never a paragon of activity.

966 is IIoA, 977 pulls the same “don’t give me town points for that” that I mentioned earlier today, 1060 he gets caught having gone several days without posting again, next two posts are prod talk, his kortul read apparently falls apart and he goes missing again for several days on end; I can’t blame him for his V/LA but I’m having a hard time squaring the fact that he was ready to hammer in 1122 on 5/18; he has one wall post that doesn’t really move the game at all before hammering anyways in 1233 on 5/28. I mean if you’re going to delay things shouldn’t you make use of that time somehow instead it just looks like he’s waiting for a different wagon to emerge or someone else to hammer to keep himself off the wagon.

On re-analysis I gave him town credit for some things on D1, but I think my first instincts were correct and he’s scum.

VOTE: rhinox

kortul · Post Post #1294 (ISO) » Mon Jun 04, 2012 8:14 am

Still on kindle. I am VT.

@Magua - i can't read you logically at all. All this info was there on day 3, yet you were on Fishy and SA. And how can you be seen softclaiming investigation on Fishy when you happily switch to SA and sit there until the end of the day? But if you needed my lynch you could do it when i was at L-2, that makes you less likely to be scum... I want my internet back and finish the research

Rhinox · Post Post #1295 (ISO) » Mon Jun 04, 2012 8:50 am

In post 1293, Debonair Danny DiPietro wrote:namely that scum won’t be all on or off a wagon; violations of that principle happened exceedingly rarely in my dataset whether there be two scum or three (didn’t look at large games). Given my other assumptions this really makes rhinox stand out on that D1 vote count.

Well your assumptions are wrong somewhere.

What are the reasons you're clearing fishy I couldn't find them in your iso?

In post 1293, Debonair Danny DiPietro wrote:First thing is more numbers and while rhinox promises more content in his first post on D3 and he does provide it compared to his non-existance at the end of D2 he’s still under the average in terms of posts and a quick check says I had more posts than him and I’m never a paragon of activity.

Why is my activity level an alignment tell?

Why is my activity level compared to your activity level an alignment tell?

In post 1293, Debonair Danny DiPietro wrote:966 is IIoA

One post of "information" does not make it IIoA. It makes it IMWA - Information Mixed with Analysis. IIoA is only a scumtell if there more information than analysis, thus the name Information

instead of analysis

. If 966 was ammended as part of my 965 for example, you wouldn't be crying IIoA. This is a big reach.

In post 1293, Debonair Danny DiPietro wrote:977 pulls the same “don’t give me town points for that” that I mentioned earlier today

Fine you've repeated this enough now and backed it up with a vote where I want you to explain why this is at all a scumtell. If someone is trying to call me town for what I feel is a bad reason I'm going to point it out because it could be scum trying to buddy me. I don't get how it makes any sense that why I as scum would have any need or desire to double up on town points by refusing to accept town points. If people are thinking I'm town, then I don't need to keep trying to fabricate more reasons for those same people to think I'm town if I'm scum.

In post 1293, Debonair Danny DiPietro wrote:1060 he gets caught having gone several days without posting again, next two posts are prod talk, <snip> he goes missing again for several days on end

Back to why is my activity a scumtell?

In post 1293, Debonair Danny DiPietro wrote:his kortul read apparently falls apart

It did. Did you read any of that conversation between me and kortul? Because the way you throw in

apparently

makes it seem like a arbitrarily stopped pursuing kortul, or that my read shouldn't have fallen apart. What are you trying to say here?

In post 1293, Debonair Danny DiPietro wrote:I can’t blame him for his V/LA but I’m having a hard time squaring the fact that he was ready to hammer in 1122 on 5/18; he has one wall post that doesn’t really move the game at all before hammering anyways in 1233 on 5/28. I mean if you’re going to delay things shouldn’t you make use of that time somehow instead it just looks like he’s waiting for a different wagon to emerge or someone else to hammer to keep himself off the wagon.

1183 was all I had for the end of the day, unless SA had some revelation to make. I wasn't sure he was scum, it was mostly a POE thing like I said. A few people were requesting that time be given for SA to say something. I was giving that time. After my ultimatum in 1183 SA made posts that mostly focused on him thinking I'm scum - yeah thats not really going to convince me not to hammer him. But before I could hammer people unvoted to where I could no longer hammer. 1207, 1221, 1223 and my V/LA he was all the way back to L-3. First opportunity to hammer him after I heard what he had to say and decided it was BS, I hammered. I did make use of the time - Just because you don't like 1183 doesn't mean I didn't take time to read some iso's and reaffirm my reads. What do you think I should have been doing during that time? I can't just magically fabricate some revelation thats going to change the way I was thinking about people. What is the scum motivation in giving time for SA to post some thoughts, and not hammering earlier before he could post thoughts, if I'm scum and know he was town?

Magua · Post Post #1296 (ISO) » Mon Jun 04, 2012 2:34 pm

In post 1294, kortul wrote:Still on kindle. I am VT.

@Magua - i can't read you logically at all. All this info was there on day 3, yet you were on Fishy and SA. And how can you be seen softclaiming investigation on Fishy when you happily switch to SA and sit there until the end of the day? But if you needed my lynch you could do it when i was at L-2, that makes you less likely to be scum... I want my internet back and finish the research

Er? The info that was different between yesterday and today is that Sleepless was town. Sleepless was my strongest read for scum. Then he got lynched and flipped town.

As for softclaiming the investigation on Fishy, that was since I replaced in on D2 and then for about half(?) of D3, about three weeks in real life. The switch onto Sleepless was partly because I found Sleepless scummier, and partly because I slowly realized that Voided was going to die N3 regardless.

@Rhino:

Who you *do* find scummy would be useful.

Debonair Danny DiPietro · Post Post #1297 (ISO) » Tue Jun 05, 2012 4:06 am

*Fucking wall post; I'm not doing this again btw*

In post 1295, Rhinox wrote:What are the reasons you're clearing fishy I couldn't find them in your iso?

Personal meta and an extremely reliable town-tell related to D1 activity.

In post 1295, Rhinox wrote:Why is my activity level an alignment tell?

Why is my activity level compared to your activity level an alignment tell?

It isn’t

your

activity that bothers me in that; rhinox lurking = he’s scum; it’s that anyone under contributing is more likely to be scum for that fact. And I’m just using myself as a baseline to demonstrate the point.

In post 1295, Rhinox wrote:One post of "information" does not make it IIoA. It makes it IMWA - Information Mixed with Analysis. IIoA is only a scumtell if there more information than analysis, thus the name Information instead of analysis. If 966 was ammended as part of my 965 for example, you wouldn't be crying IIoA. This is a big reach.

This is true; I was doing an ISO and didn’t see that your previous post was also the previous post in the thread.

In post 1295, Rhinox wrote:Fine you've repeated this enough now and backed it up with a vote where I want you to explain why this is at all a scumtell. If someone is trying to call me town for what I feel is a bad reason I'm going to point it out because it could be scum trying to buddy me. I don't get how it makes any sense that why I as scum would have any need or desire to double up on town points by refusing to accept town points. If people are thinking I'm town, then I don't need to keep trying to fabricate more reasons for those same people to think I'm town if I'm scum.

Because it’s theatrics; you’re pushing away first level advantage to accrue second level advantage and to avoid hypothetical negatives. Those aren’t town behaviors; town behavior is to accept the benefits handed to you and ignore second level effects and hypothetical negatives because you’re town and who cares if there’s a connection between you and player X; you don’t even know if player X is scum and even is he is scum it’s not a death sentence if he’s buddying with you because you can point that out. It’s only the type of move scum with more perfect information about who is town and scum makes to position themselves better.

In post 1295, Rhinox wrote:It did. Did you read any of that conversation between me and kortul? Because the way you throw in apparently makes it seem like a arbitrarily stopped pursuing kortul, or that my read shouldn't have fallen apart. What are you trying to say here?

Wasn’t intended to be an evaluative statement; just a time point setting.

In post 1295, Rhinox wrote:After my ultimatum in 1183 SA made posts that mostly focused on him thinking I'm scum - yeah thats not really going to convince me not to hammer him.

You’re a smart player rhinox and yet you didn’t consider: why is the guy I’m saying I’m willing to hammer still calling me out as scum?

In post 1295, Rhinox wrote:But before I could hammer people unvoted to where I could no longer hammer. 1207, 1221, 1223 and my V/LA he was all the way back to L-3. First opportunity to hammer him after I heard what he had to say and decided it was BS, I hammered. I did make use of the time - Just because you don't like 1183 doesn't mean I didn't take time to read some iso's and reaffirm my reads.

There were four RL days between your first threat to hammer and 1183. And you say you needed the time to read ISOs and reaffirm reads, but those are things you can do over night as well; the only thing you need day for is to interact with other players and you didn’t do that.

In post 1295, Rhinox wrote:What is the scum motivation in giving time for SA to post some thoughts, and not hammering earlier before he could post thoughts, if I'm scum and know he was town?

Maybe a “better” counterwagon appears; maybe someone else hammers and makes you look better in VCA, maybe the town grows increasingly bored and it kills their motivation for the game, maybe you thought it looked like the safe and sensible thing to do and with your reputation you need to look safe and sensible instead of quick and rash. Pick one, pick several, come up with others, there’s lots of possibilities.

~~

In post 1296, Magua wrote:@Rhino: Who you *do* find scummy would be useful.

Fishythefish · Post Post #1298 (ISO) » Tue Jun 05, 2012 6:33 am

In post 1293, Debonair Danny DiPietro wrote:
Spoiler:
In post 642, LlamaFluff wrote:End of Day Vote Count

Lastsurvivor (7)
-
nachomamma8
,
4nxi3ty
, DCLXVI,
Macrophage
, Alicewondering, kortul,
hiplop

Macrophage
(3) -
Voidedmafia, Debonair Danny DiPietro
, rhinox

Debonair Danny DiPietro
(3) -
Sleepless Assassin,

fishythefish
,
Lastsurvivor

In post 958, LlamaFluff wrote:Vote Count

Macrophage
(7) -
Voidedmafia
,
hiplop
,
Debonair Danny DiPietro,
kortul,
4nxi3ty
, rhinox

DCLXVI
(4) -
Sleepless Assassin
,
Macrophage
,
fishythefish

fishythefish (1) - Magua

Sleepless Assassin
(1) - DCLXVI

In post 1241, LlamaFluff wrote:Vote Count

Sleepless Assassin
(8) -
Debonair Danny DiPietro
, Magua,
Voidedmafia
, rhinox
Magua (2) -
fishythefish

rhinox (1) -
Sleepless Assassin

DCLXVI (1) - kortul
kortul (1) - DCLXVI

So in my research that led to one of the biggest reasons I’m clearing Fishy I’ve actually found a reasonable amount of evidence for some of the basic VCA assumptions; namely that scum won’t be all on or off a wagon; violations of that principle happened exceedingly rarely in my dataset whether there be two scum or three (didn’t look at large games). Given my other assumptions this really makes rhinox stand out on that D1 vote count.

First thing is more numbers and while rhinox promises more content in his first post on D3 and he does provide it compared to his non-existance at the end of D2 he’s still under the average in terms of posts and a quick check says I had more posts than him and I’m never a paragon of activity.

966 is IIoA, 977 pulls the same “don’t give me town points for that” that I mentioned earlier today, 1060 he gets caught having gone several days without posting again, next two posts are prod talk, his kortul read apparently falls apart and he goes missing again for several days on end; I can’t blame him for his V/LA but I’m having a hard time squaring the fact that he was ready to hammer in 1122 on 5/18; he has one wall post that doesn’t really move the game at all before hammering anyways in 1233 on 5/28. I mean if you’re going to delay things shouldn’t you make use of that time somehow instead it just looks like he’s waiting for a different wagon to emerge or someone else to hammer to keep himself off the wagon.

On re-analysis I gave him town credit for some things on D1, but I think my first instincts were correct and he’s scum.

VOTE: rhinox

I don't agree with this case. Rhinox's (sometimes) poor activity doesn't make him scum - the worst bits were (for me) convincingly explained by Rhinox being slightly lost town. I don't see "that's not really town, actually" as a scumtell at all - as town, I often feel like someone isn't reading me properly if they think I'm town for a poor reason, and if it's strong enough I'll point it out. Particularly if someone else is arguing about whether it's town, like with the end of day Rhinox reaction yesterday - there's no point Rhinox letting you and whoever-it-was fight over whether his reaction is town when he knows it's because SA was obviously fake. Rhinox's end-of-day wait on SA I don't see the scum motivation for, and I don't think is implausible from town.

In post 1290, Magua wrote:Also, I figured it would be more likely that I'd be seen as soft-claiming some investigation on him that way, and if I was right (I always think I'm right), more likely that I'd be NK'ed over someone who was actually a PR. (In retrospect, that was never going to happen with the masons, but whatever.)

This feels like town.

On DCL: I didn't like some of his play day 1 - funky was scummy and DCL's push on LS felt wrong to me. OTOH, the strong LS-me link he saw is definitely a towntell - I think group scumhunting is something town do much more than scum fake.

His play day 2 reads weirdly. He doesn't do much for a while, then goes after Macro strongly, and then backs off. One previous post had this tl;dr:

In post 776, DCLXVI wrote:Basically, macros's "case" against me is pure OMGUS fluff aimed at drawing attention away from his wagon and onto to one of his accusers.

There are a lot of claims made in his case that aren't backed up, macro calls parts of my case unatural and another part of it bad and neither time does he try to back up those claims. There is a lot of rhetoric, and little logical analysis and proof behind his attack on me.

and the next was:

In post 860, DCLXVI wrote:...my head says macro is scum, my gut says he is town...dang it I'm going with my gut on this, I'm getting cold feet about lynching macro, this post doesn't feel like scum:

In post 849, Macrophage wrote:
Unvote: Debonair

Can you claim?

unvote:macro
Vote:DDD

While there was a longish break between these, the first doesn't read like someone you are likely to get a gut townread on any time soon, and the reason given in the second feels fairly minor. Can you say where your gut townread came from, DCL?

Meh. Maybe DCL is scum after all. My Magua read is drifting into a gut townread, so I'm really struggling to find two scumbags in this game atm. I should probably read kortul/DCL/Magua in pairs next.

Incidentally, given the post it was made in I think this line is pretty funny:

In post 1218, DCLXVI wrote:maybe because I didn't want to start a wall post war. I made my case, you gave your defense, I don't always feel like I need to have the last word.

Rhinox · Post Post #1299 (ISO) » Tue Jun 05, 2012 9:12 am

In post 1297, Debonair Danny DiPietro wrote:it’s that anyone under contributing is more likely to be scum for that fact. And I’m just using myself as a baseline to demonstrate the point.

OK. I'll use hiplop as a baseline to demonstrate the point then.

In post 1297, Debonair Danny DiPietro wrote:town behavior is to accept the benefits handed to you

Well this is where we disagree. Why wouldn't scum just want to accept false benefits being handed to them as well? What makes scum more likely screw you're benefits, over town saying hey that doesn't really mean I'm town?

I know if I dug through my bookmarks I could find a few examples of town turning away town read benefits, and I can't think of a time I remember scum doing it.

In post 1297, Debonair Danny DiPietro wrote:You’re a smart player rhinox and yet you didn’t consider: why is the guy I’m saying I’m willing to hammer still calling me out as scum?

*thereslotsofpossibilitiesrhetoric*

In post 1297, Debonair Danny DiPietro wrote:There were four RL days between your first threat to hammer and 1183. And you say you needed the time to read ISOs and reaffirm reads, but those are things you can do over night as well; the only thing you need day for is to interact with other players and you didn’t do that.

Yeah the 4 days was the time SA requested in order to have time to post content, and others requested he be given. I gave the ultimatum in 1183 after SA's promised timeframe for content was up. Then SA posted and someone unvoted out of hammer range.

I didn't need the time for anything. I gave the time because others asked for it, and I used the time to make sure I was still happy to hammer SA.

References: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 0#p4054810 and http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p4054912

Do you think they made good use of the time?

You still haven't told me what I should have been doing with that time?

Also:

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p4054202 - why do you have a stick up your ass about me not hammering SA but you haven't mentioned this at all?

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

My POE scum suspects today are kortul and Magua.

I still don't think DCL is scum.

I don't think fishy is scum either, but it makes me a bit nervous that there are quite a few scenarios where fishy could be buddying me.

If voided is not a mason and ends up being scum hiplop gets a smack upside the head after the game for both not correcting us for assuming he was mason AND THEN giving his vote to voided. I think voided is town. I can imagine a theory where 4nx didn't actually send his vote to his mason partner, and that hiplop didn't say anything because it would be revealed sooner or later that voided wasn't the mason partner, and that hiplop didn't actually send his vote to voided but it was a scum role that sent the vote there. But... Just a crazy theory I'm not putting any stock in.

DDD - I've never been 100% convinced he was town. He was one of my early suspects, but I thought he was more likely town for his pursuit of macro D1 and D2. I didn't think his claim was a strong tell either way. Part of the reason that went into me being ok with lynching SA was how he called DDD town only because of his claim. I asked SA about it in 1107 and never got an answer.

Ever since DDD's claim I've been mulling over a theory I can't prove. My comments around the time of DDD's claim should shed some light into what I was thinking. see: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 0#p4025010 - the post DDD singled out as IIOA.

The first thing I thought after DDD's claim was, "I wonder if DDDscum would claim/use that ability on a dead scum partner to get macro's vote over to the other scum partner indirectly." DDD's and Magua's comments fed into my thinking:

In post 962, Debonair Danny DiPietro wrote:I was expecting to find myself or DCL on the bottom of Macrophage’s list and hand a vote to a town aligned player; instead Magua was apparently at the bottom who I consider more of a question mark.

In post 963, Magua wrote:Oh, man, I thought I had been given the vote by scum in order to watch the WIFOM and for scum to try to get me lynched.

DDD says outright that he expected town to be at the bottom of scum wills, but that magua was a question mark (distancing should magua flip scum later?), and Magua basically says he expected scum would be at the top of scum wills, and acts relieved that he was at the bottom of macro's will. Neither of them were in the previous LW games, so if thats the thought process they expected town to have, then I can see DDD's claim being a plausible one for scum to make.

The problem is that its also perfectly logical for town with that ability to use it on dead scum. And with everyone calling DDD town, I kinda set aside my theory due to okham's razor. But with masons (especially if 3) a will manipulation role for scum isn't out of the question. And if DDD and magua are scum, DDD didn't actually have to use his ability then, just say he did, to make us think magua was at the bottom of macro's lynch instead of the top.

:shrug:

I think everyone's claimed now right? All VT except for DDD and voided? This game does kinda have the feel of a PR-light game. 3 masons vs. 1-shot scum will flipper? 3 masons + town will flipper vs. scum ???

The jist of it is... I'm just not confident in my reads, and I don't know how to get more confident because I don't know what questions to ask. Kinda at the point where everything's been talked about and its time to pick a side, but I'm not sold on the case for any side.

When these are the attitudes of townies and likely townies under threat of lynch:

In post 626, Lastsurvivor wrote:Rhinox: Macro prob isn't scum. Lynch either DDD or I today. I'd prefer DDD, obviously, but I think my lynch is inevitable at this point.

In post 953, DCLXVI wrote:Just to be clear, I don't intend on voting macro or DDD wagons just to save myself from getting lynched as I think they are town.

In post 1123, Sleepless Assassin wrote:I have a day off from work tomorrow (maybe), so let me try and find a little while to figure this game out. After that, hammer away.

...it makes it kinda hard to not feel a little apathetic.