Mini 1316 - Last Will Mafia IV (Over)

[Fishythefish]

@Rhinox: what did you think of kortul's play yesterday? Right now, that's what's holding me back from voting for him - I think it looks like town.

[kortul]

I have my internet back, working on finishing the research on Alice/Magua, will think over gathered data and post together with conclusions tomorrow. I begin to think that forum games are not for me - i hate replacements! I find Alice play scummy, and Magua play mostly town with some odd posts. I could easily see DCL-Alice team, but don't see DCL-Magua team. Logic is smoking in the corner...

@Fishy, i wonder, did you have a feeling yesterday that Magua had some kind of investigation on you?

[Rhinox]

idk... I read through his iso a couple times, half of the day was me arguing with him. I don't really see anything distinctly town in those parts. He posted quite a bit in support of his DCL case. I've read through it a couple times now, it seems well thought out and logical and don't really see anything wrong with it, the problem is it causes me headaches because it conflicts my internal townread of DCL...

fdsjakbdfscdascfhil.. Someone has to be town...

[LlamaFluff]

Vote Count

Magua (3) - Voidedmafia
rhinox (2) - Debonair Danny DiPietro
kortul (2) - Magua
fishythefish (1) - DCLXVI

Not Voting (5) - kortul, rhinox, fishythefish

With 13 votes in play it takes 7 to lynch
Deadline is June 14th, 11AM PST

[Voidedmafia]

Isn't it 3 masons vs. will flipper+1-shot VCop or 3 masons+will flipper vs. 1-shot VCop?

I still just feel that Magua is scum, but I'm still very afraid of getting into the same rut as I did with Macro. I mean, sure, I was eventually right about him, but it's not a rut I want to stay in. But then there's the chance I may be right again...blaaargh...

[Fishythefish]

I have my internet back, working on finishing the research on Alice/Magua, will think over gathered data and post together with conclusions tomorrow. I begin to think that forum games are not for me - i hate replacements! I find Alice play scummy, and Magua play mostly town with some odd posts. I could easily see DCL-Alice team, but don't see DCL-Magua team. Logic is smoking in the corner...

@Fishy, i wonder, did you have a feeling yesterday that Magua had some kind of investigation on you?

Nope, it never crossed my mind.

[Voidedmafia]

Wait, what makes you think Mag even has an investigation?

[Rhinox]

Isn't it 3 masons vs. will flipper+1-shot VCop or 3 masons+will flipper vs. 1-shot VCop?

oh right derp That being the case the Vcop balances the masons and the role flipper seems like it would make scum too OP since all we have are the masons. So move DDD back up to town.

[kortul]

Ok, here are the results and conclusions of my research. It took some time, since i had too many thoughts and comments, had to cut some, and there are lots of nuances, hope i managed to present them clearly after translation.

There are several things that i find scummy about Alice. Right at the beginning of the day 1 Alice stated in 102 "If Malee flips scum, LS becomes scummier." At that moment it prompted only the mild question why, and the answer was "He's vouching for her in a way that doesn't exactly feel genuine to me." This link was asymmetrical and not logically connected to an explanation. If she felt that LS vouching wasn't genuine, it makes him simply scummier, not if Malee flips scum. So reading this now i have the feeling that she knew who is who, and subconsciously created the link based on this knowledge, not just on the posts available at that moment.

I don't like inconsistencies between her words and actions throughout the game, and said so to her on day 1.

She "missed" the 180 of theomoaner on her, even though he was her main suspect at that moment - which means she didn't really read his posts, or didn't want to draw attention to his slip. After Macro claim she dropped the suspicion on him, and switched to DDD. But then she starts day 2 with:

I'm going to hold off

on a Macro vote at least for today.

Again it was inconsistent, since she already said that she thinks that Macro is town.

Her defence on day 1 was just admitting some points and ignoring everything else:

@Alice: Weren't you telling me I was wrong when I posted my case though? So now the points are valid?

Your points are certainly valid, but you've reached the wrong conclusion.

Before she replaced everyone was actually town or null to her, which together with pacifying defence allowed her to be out of focus of attention, yet join whatever wagon she felt like joining.

Which brings us to another point. I find really scummy the indifference about lynching:

Last, it didn't change my mind.

Also not liking how every single wagon is dissolving more and more as we get closer to deadline. We NEED to actually lynch someone.

Deadline's a week away. I'm not that concerned. A lot can change in a week, and we have Malee's replacement just in.

[quote="In post 823, "Alicewondering"]Kortul, I don't really have great reads right now. I have mostly town reads and null or null-scum reads. SA is scumread. Fishy is a null read as well.

I'll consider other people when someone flips today.

[/quote]She really doesn't care who is going to be lynched.

I remember from ISO on Macro that Alice/Magua fit to be his scum partner, and decided to check connections with the rest of my scum pool. Alice immediately reacted when Fishy tried to link her with funky:

Not all that much. It's not particularly unlikely that scumfunky would be bussing here - his partner would be in trouble, and I can easily see scum not bothering to make much of a case because they know they're right. And if funky is town, his vote says nothing about Alice's alignment.

If funky is scum, his vote means nothing as well to my alignment. I'm an easy lynch target now that a wagon has grown on me.

As for connections with DCL, Alice kept asking players (LS, SA, Fishy) why DCL is scum for them. I found no strong or suspicious connections with Fishy. So i can see only DCL-Alice team.

Next about connections of Magua. Magua-Fishy team is unlikely, and DCL-Magua team looks forced, given their day 3 play, but still possible, since they weren't building any cases on each other, or voting, just arguing.

Here enters Magua. Most of the time i have a feeling that he is playing town game - his play is consistent, he is active, sometimes too much for my taste, but i always think that activity is good for town regarldess where it comes from (unless it is really disruptive by nature). One thing i don't like is that his activity goes away at the end of the day (both days 2 and 3).

Posts that i find scummy are:

Or to put it another way, there's a 100% chance in my mind, and as far as I can tell, everyone else's, that (Magua, Fishy, Sleepless, DCL) contains at least 1 scum.

There is a non-insignificant chance (for me, personally, > 66%) that it contains 2 scum.

In his own mind he includes himself in the pool of suspects.

How the fuck was hiplop a mason?

I just don't see how this question translates into the explanation:

I fully expected Voided to die last night.

I'm surprised a) that hiplop was a mason, and b) that he was shot in preference to Voided.

Also, I figured it would be more likely that I'd be seen as soft-claiming some investigation on him that way, and if I was right (I always think I'm right), more likely that I'd be NK'ed over someone who was actually a PR. (In retrospect, that was never going to happen with the masons, but whatever.)

His general activity and some of his posts throught days 2 and 3 indeed look like he has some kind of guilty on Fishy. But Alice never said anything bad about Fishy during day 2, so Fishy-scum won't believe the replacement faking guilty. I think Magua is smart enough to realize it, unless he never took a look at Alice ISO, in that case his explanation looks even more strange - how can you pretend to have a guilty on someone, if you have no idea what your predecessor said about the player?

There are three logical scenarios where his explanation makes sense (one is too improbable, so i won't explain it):
1) Magua is town, who was lazy to read Alice, somewhere on day 3 realized that his gambit won't work, and switched gears, but told so only today.
2) Magua-X (not Fishy) scum team, with Magua aiming for one-shot PR claim during LyLo/MyLo on future days with guilty on Fishy (on Night 2). That explains surprise when hiplop flipped mason, with a request to Voided whether he is mason as well, since 3 masons together with secretary make it hard to claim any more PRs. Massclaim today eliminates any remaining possibility for such a claim, since timing is wrong (not in LyLo).

I was meditating on these scenarios for some time, and still can't figure out which one is more likely. Right now i am inclined to believe him, mostly because yesterday i also was thinking on how to draw NK, but figured that i am an easy lynch target and scum won't bite on any gambits.

So i am torn between Alice-scum and Magua-town. Therefore my vote goes back to DCL, i am more sure about him being scum.

VOTE: DCLXVI

I was thinking about his today switch to Fishy, and come to conclusion that it doesn't change anything. So i urge everyone to read my case on DCL, and my answers to his defense. Give your feedback. Also, those who were on his wagon (or think he was counterwagon to Macro), make sure you are not affected by some guilt posteffects, take another look at the wagon and make a reality check - do you see any scum on his wagon other than Macro?

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

OK. I'll use hiplop as a baseline to demonstrate the point then.

*rolls eyes* It’s not as binary as less posts = scum; but less posts = higher probability of being scum; its science.

Well this is where we disagree. Why wouldn't scum just want to accept false benefits being handed to them as well? What makes scum more likely screw you're benefits, over town saying hey that doesn't really mean I'm town?

I agree scum would do it to mimic town; that’s what I expect to see because it’s the natural reaction either way; yours is thus not.

~~

Do you think they made good use of the time?

Well I'm back briefly, but it seems nothing has changed in the meanwhile. SA, kortul, DCL, and rhinox are still fucking around on non-wagons and hiplop's replacement has had nothing to say. Man, I'm glad we didn't lynch SA-scum when he was at L-1; we've gathered so much positive momentum since then.

~~

why do you have a stick up your ass about me not hammering SA but you haven't mentioned this at all?

Not really sure how the two are related other than they both vaguely involve hammers; care to explain?

[Fishythefish]

Wait, what makes you think Mag even has an investigation?

He doesn't. Rather, Mag was exaggerating his scumread on me in order to appear to have one, in order to get NK'ed when I (theoretically) flipped scum. Plausible, I think, because a) it's exactly the kind of scheme townies produce and b) there have certainly been times when I've been a credible lynch.

So, I don't think soberFishy has the guts to take the plunge and
VOTE: DCL
TBH, I've wanted to do this for a little while and been worried about appearances. It's a bit OMGUSy, it's a bit U-turnish, and I'm just about on the radar enough that I'm concerned about lynched. But at this stage, DCL is about the last person I can vote for without my gut crawling up my neck and strangling me.

[DCLXVI]

out of curiosity what does that put me at?

[Fishythefish]

3 votes, I think?

[Fishythefish]

And really, "out of curiousity"? Whether you're town or scum, that's just unnecessarily scummy. Who feigns disinterest in their wagon?

[DCLXVI]

And really, "out of curiousity"? Whether you're town or scum, that's just unnecessarily scummy. Who feigns disinterest in their wagon?

*cough*confirmation bias *cough*

Nice that you automatically think I was faking when I implied that I didn't care. Or do you feel the need to make everything I say look scummy.

now about that supposed wagon on me

1. Two people does not a wagon make.
2. According to me PoE at least one (if not both) of the players on my supposed wagon are scum.
3. Kortul "case" on me is pityful, and yours is nonexistant

here is how I feel about my "wagon"

[Fishythefish]

Actually, 1313 wasn't calling you scummy. Not sure it came across well, but it was supposed to be pointing out a generic scumtell I'm amazed anyone actually does and think probably doesn't work well.

I don't think kortul's case on you is pitiful. Your day 2 play on Macro does look pretty off, and your day 3 play was very meh - never really felt like you actually cared who got lynched. Sure, I don't have much of a case (though I suspect I've said more about you than vice-versa), because it's mostly PoE. Can you answer the question I asked here about your D2 play?

[kortul]

@Voided - if you missed the "investigation" part in the initial post of Magua, Fishy already gave brief description, and i analyzed it in my Magua research as well. If you rather asked about my question or Fishy answer, i decided to logically continue the revelation of Magua, and my question was slight provocation directed at Fishy, which he passed.

I read the case from DDD and answers from Rhinox several times, and fail to see the case - it is mostly personal view, rhetorics, or attacks on inactivity. And i definitely see no scum motivation in giving SA time to post thoughts - he actually found time and gave his thoughts, and they cam from town, whether you like those thoughts or not. Not everyone used that time to do something (and this is the thing i don't like about Magua activity, for example), but i am glad i had that window to do research on SA, finish ISO on Fishy, and complete research on DCL, present it and argue it. Also, DDD, you called Rhinox on not hammering SA, but didn't mention the same from DCL. As i said, i see no scum motivation in not giving time to SA, but why do you apply this as scum tell only for Rhinox? I think this is what Rhinox tried to ask you as well.

DCL, you already tried to argue my case, and failed, so now you call it pitiful. Meh.

[Magua]

Neither of [DDD,Magua] were in the previous LW games, so if thats the thought process they expected town to have, then I can see DDD's claim being a plausible one for scum to make.

I was scum in Last Will II, though I flaked and got replaced by esuriospiritus before it ended.

Wait, what makes you think Mag even has an investigation?

This was in reference to me saying I was trying to softclaim a guilty investigation on Fishy.

So, going back at things.

In 834, Macrophage and DDD are both at L-2, with each voting for the other.

Sleepless Assassin votes DDD in 839, making Macrophage L-2 and DDD L-1.

4nxi3ty votes Macrophage in 844, so they're both at L-1.

Macrophage unvotes DDD in 849, asking DDD to claim: Macrophage is at L-1, DDD is at L-2.

DCL unvotes Macro, votes DDD in 860, making it Macro L-2 and DDD L-1.

kortul unvotes Macrophage, votes DCL in 865, Macrophage votes DCL in 866, but maintains that DDD needs to claim.

DDD finally claims in 913:

My role name is that of a Secretary; I have a one-shot ability. I'm leaning towards it being better for me to not claim what my ability actually does though I'm sure some people will "hurr durr" at me until I'm forced to claim it anyways.

Macrophage's response in 932:

I don't want to lynch Debonair and especially don't want to lynch 4n now.

There are a number of strange things here. First, Macrophage unvoting while asking for a claim. Then, before Macrophage even gets that claim -- before DDD even says he's not going to claim unless he's at L-1 with an intent to hammer -- Macrophage's jump onto DCL is odd (as I noted at the time). His total buy-in to DDD's claim when it's given (at a point when DDD, who he'd been pushing for most of the Day, is at L-1, he lets him go with such a vague claim, and then bypasses hammering him in order to put his vote onto Voided. That is, after being a prime contender for a wagon both D1 and D2, he bypasses the chance to lynch a claimed PR to put a lone vote onto Voided.

UNVOTE: kortul
VOTE: Debonair Danny DiPietro

[kortul]

Hmm, that's actually interesting scenario, will check that period myself over weekend and see if my conclusions will be close. Though, i remember that at that moment i thought Macro unvoting while asking for a claim was a town move, and DCL actually gave this as a reason to switch from him to DDD, so that was a smart move on Macro side. And another thing - after DDD softclaimed Fishy with 2 votes quickly unvoted, so i am not sure whether there was a window for Macro to hammer, will check that as well. Hmm, wait, if he had a window to quickhammer in a middle of a claim, then if DDD is town that would be death sentence to Macro, and if DDD is scum - can't assess the reaction shift towards Macro right now, have to read when exactly was the window for hammering.

[Voidedmafia]

Going by the timestamps from 860 to 865, he had about 5 hours to hammer between DCL voting DDD and you unvoting him. It's not a big window, and it's not small either, but I don't remember if he was even there at the time.

Also, Mag, please clean up that last paragraph before your vote. I think I understand what you're saying, but the lack of a closing parenthesis makes it difficult.

[Voidedmafia]

btw, I will have some LA over the weekend. The MLG Spring Championships kick off at 5:30 PM EST and will last most of the night, so I will be devoting most of my time there. Check here for the times that I'll be LA, which is basically from when it starts each day to when it ends. There will be some breaks that I can use to check on stuff, but I don't think they'll be overly large.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

I read the case from DDD and answers from Rhinox several times, and fail to see the case - it is mostly personal view, rhetorics, or attacks on inactivity.

Why would the guy with the least amount of posts defend inactivity, I wonder.

As i said, i see no scum motivation in not giving time to SA, but why do you apply this as scum tell only for Rhinox? I think this is what Rhinox tried to ask you as well.

Because no one else as far as I know threatened to hammer.

~~

Magua's case is problematic is several ways. First, it's solely based on what scum did which means scum can manipulate it to make things appear one way or another. It also ignores, like Voided points out, real life time sequence. It also ignores that speedhammering an unclaimed town player means he certainly dies the next day and most scum have bigger goals than getting one last mislynch before going down with the ship.

[Magua]

Going by the timestamps from 860 to 865, he had about 5 hours to hammer between DCL voting DDD and you unvoting him. It's not a big window, and it's not small either, but I don't remember if he was even there at the time.

Also, Mag, please clean up that last paragraph before your vote. I think I understand what you're saying, but the lack of a closing parenthesis makes it difficult.

I'll restate.

Macrophage and DDD are both at L-1, each voting the other.

Macrophage unvotes and asks DDD to claim. Meanwhile, DCL unvotes Macrophage and votes DDD -- this is at 860, 4/28 at 2:00pm EST. From this point on, Macrophage has the ability to hammer DDD (he posts at 866 for instance, voting DCL over DDD).

DDD stays at L-1 until 914 when Fishy unvotes, which was 5/2 at 1:00pm EST, so he was there for some four days, not five hours.

(The part I did miss is that DDD claims in 913, Fishy unvotes in 914, makes it impossible for Macrophage to hammer after that occurred.) Still, Macrophage goes from "DDD is scum, DDD is scum, DDD is scum," to, "I buy your rolename claim with no details" completely. Compare Macrophage's response ("I believe you, DDD!") to Fishy's response (tons of questions) for instance.

It feels, entirely, like Macrophage was looking to give DDD a way out, and get the wagon onto someone else (DCL).

Magua's case is problematic is several ways. First, it's solely based on what scum did which means scum can manipulate it to make things appear one way or another. It also ignores, like Voided points out, real life time sequence. It also ignores that speedhammering an unclaimed town player means he certainly dies the next day and most scum have bigger goals than getting one last mislynch before going down with the ship.

I don't ignore the "hammering unclaimeds can make your life expectancy short if they flip town," but I do counterpoint that Macrophage was a leading wagon D1 and D2. The scummier facet, as I see it, is Macrophage entirely dropping suspicion of you when you claimed "Secretary" but refused to give out any details. Even with Fishy's unvote in 914, he could have jumped back on and resumed suspicion of you, or pressed for details of your claim to try to get it confirmed (like Fishy did), but he doesn't. Why do you think he was so willing to give up your lynch and move onto DCL?

[Rhinox]

Magua:

If DDD is scum with macro, what do you make of the whole claiming to flip macro's will with the secretary role to give you macro's vote?

[Rhinox]

Not really sure how the two are related other than they both vaguely involve hammers; care to explain?

Because no one else as far as I know threatened to hammer.

?

I said I was willing to hammer SA. Shortly after, DCL said he was willing to hammer SA. Whats the difference? Why am I scum for it but you haven't mentioned anything about DCL saying pretty much the same thing?