Newbie 1495 (DAY 4) - The One where Everyone got Murdered

[Shinobi]

BBT, you’re wrong on Mora. Really really wrong, I can cope with you pushing on Mala because while I think she’s town I’m not entirely sold on it but with Mora I’d be shocked if he’s scum here. I find the whole “I played badly D1” post of his that you’ve quoted to be understandable, when I mslynch someone I do come out admitting that I didn’t play it well the next day and the intention behind that isn’t to be “town-read” it’s to state a genuine fact.

What do you make of his reasoning for his Enomis vote?

Also, I'm a he. It's really confusing me reading your posts

PEdit - Mora, are you worried about being universally town-read?

I really enjoy it, I can do crazy shit and no one cares!

vote: JacobSavage

dayvig: BBT

I don't townread you. I will never townread you.

@FF: Who is Shinori?

[Moratorium]

*sadface* So moodkill.

[Shinobi]

<3

[Shinobi]

We should probably lynch Xayzeck though.

[Regfan]

Shinobi can you explain the

”And I really don't like the fact that you just tried to shed some doubt on Mora.”

section of Post 981 because I dont’ see it really fitting with your read on him in Post 960, Post 985, Post 1025 ect. If you think Mora is scum/not-town wouldn’t BBT shining doubt on him be a good thing? Also run me through exactly which points sold you finally on Xay being a good lynch.

[Shinobi]

Shinobi can you explain the

”And I really don't like the fact that you just tried to shed some doubt on Mora.”

section of Post 981 because I dont’ see it really fitting with your read on him in Post 960, Post 985, Post 1025 ect. If you think Mora is scum/not-town wouldn’t BBT shining doubt on him be a good thing? Also run me through exactly which points sold you finally on Xay being a good lynch.

Both of these can be answered by my reads changing to suit yours. My point on not being able to differentiate between Xay's town/scumgames is probably what affected my read early, but I'm beginning to think that you can make a more accurate on him than I can.

And it wasn't so much that BBT was just shedding doubt on him; it's that he was shedding doubt on him in such an offhand manner that it made me think that BBT didn't actually care about his alignment.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

BBT, Mora is actually right, your entire analysis of Xay was very waffly and fencesitty (I don’t necessarily think it’s a scum-tell in this case at all in fact I’m leaning the opposite way with you right now but it’s something you shouldn’t be doing), you need to take a stance (1) and there’s a lot of things you’re ruling out as “non-alignment indicative” that are very clear alignment tells; for instance scum objectively are going to have more difficulty defending themselves than town will because towns actions and reads are genuine and therefore explainable whereas scum are forced and them bullshitting reads and stances.

I said two things were irrelevant; Xayzecks defending of himself and meta. I fully believe meta is useless as a scum-hunting tool against anyone with half a brain. Your point about scum finding it a bit more difficult to defend themselves actually makes sense though, given that a lot of they stuff they post will be lies and that is difficult to keep up for a whole game (unless you just don't post a lot and when you do it lacks a lot of content; points finger at Xayzeck and Mala).

Ah sorry BBT thought you were a she for some reason, will make sure I get that right from hereon out. I think Moras vote on Enomis is based of VCA stated in Post 542, Post 543, Post 546 as well as an attempt to pressure him to answer his questions, I see nothing scummy about it, I mean sure it's not based of the soundest of reasoning

but I can make that same statement for just about everyones vote on that wagon

and everyones not scum. Can you explain your town read on Shinobi in greater detail for me and take a look and answer Post 991 please.

Mora it would look something like this.

Ding, ding, ding, ding, ding! We have a winner!! Do you believe both scum were on the wagon?

If you ISO me, you will see that I have stated numerous times why I town-read Shinobi, I have town-read him for quite some time.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Just finished my last final (which didn't go great but I'll live) and I have some free time to catch up and solve this game and am excited as fuck.

Quick thoughts before I commence re-read: Regfan, you are damn near about to lose your right-to-read-F-16-card if you continue along with vein. I am town as fuck and you better see it sooner rather than later.

Mora is town, Mala is town. Unless something crazy surfaces on a re-read, I'll likely bank the game on those reads. Xayzeck is scum (Xayzeck, I played with you in more games under an alt (Impact) so I know your play better and you feel scum, scum, scum here. Do something about it!

What I really want to figure out is if it is Shinori or BBT that is with you. One thing I forgot to mention that makes me lean against BBT-scum is the unusually high activity level which is difficult for newer scum to replicate.

[Xayzeck]

HAHA SO THATS WHO IMPACT WAS I WOULD HAVE NEVER GUESSED

yeah anyway I'll get to this game when I'm home

[Regfan]

And it wasn't so much that BBT was just shedding doubt on him; it's that he was shedding doubt on him in such an offhand manner that it made me think that BBT didn't actually care about his alignment.

I'd argue he's been doing it all game so you suddenly not liking it is weird? And I don't think he "Doesn't care about Moras alignment", I think he just wants to be right.

Ding, ding, ding, ding, ding! We have a winner!! Do you believe both scum were on the wagon?

I think there's a decent chance both scum were on the wagon but given that 4 of the 6 unclear people alive were on the wagon that's not saying a whole lot? What I do think is important though is not locking your mindset into a "Both scum had to be on a wagon that was bad" because if it's plausible for one townie to be on it (And there is minimum 3 townies on that lynch) then it's plausible for everyone theoretically on it to be town. It's why I personally aren't a fan of VCA except in very specific instances such as scum lynches.

If you ISO me, you will see that I have stated numerous times why I town-read Shinobi, I have town-read him for quite some time.

In Post 775 you state the only way you can see Shinobi as scum is if Mala is his partner - don't really agree with that, don't think it's impossible for Scum!Shinobi to defend Town!Mala but okay, Shinobi is by no means new to mafia he's been playing for a long long time over at epicmafia and one of the best ways to attain town cred would be white knighting a townie so I'm not ruling him out for that at all. Earlier than that though you expressed doubt on this read in Post 405 but really the only explanation of your read on him is back in Post 211 which is a long time ago. So if I'm missing a more recent explanation just link it to me otherwise can you let me know what your updated/current town read on him is based on please.

Quick thoughts before I commence re-read: Regfan, you are damn near about to lose your right-to-read-F-16-card if you continue along with vein. I am town as fuck and you better see it sooner rather than later.

I don't particularly care for "right to read cards", if you're town I'll see it in time, right now I'm not seeing it because your case on BBT is incredibly weak and if you're scum that replaced in here you'd desperately need to find someone that's ML bait and given my slight concerns with him earlier he'd fit the bill. I find it really odd that you yourself state there's things that point you against BBT scum but then stop posting your analysis on him after the early pages, it's not what I'd expect you to do but like I've said I'm fairly comfortable just lynching Xay and getting a bit better grip on you/shinobi/bbt tomorrow at this point.

[Shinobi]

If you ISO me, you will see that I have stated numerous times why I town-read Shinobi, I have town-read him for quite some time.

In Post 775 you state the only way you can see Shinobi as scum is if Mala is his partner - don't really agree with that, don't think it's impossible for Scum!Shinobi to defend Town!Mala but okay,

Shinobi is by no means new to mafia he's been playing for a long long time over at epicmafia

and one of the best ways to attain town cred would be white knighting a townie so I'm not ruling him out for that at all. Earlier than that though you expressed doubt on this read in Post 405 but really the only explanation of your read on him is back in Post 211 which is a long time ago. So if I'm missing a more recent explanation just link it to me otherwise can you let me know what your updated/current town read on him is based on please.

Hey look I'm famous.

You play on em? What's your toon's name? And is Shinobi not actually

the dick-slingin'est motherfucker on the planet

!?

Oh and I also play on TL and SC2mafia so there's that.

[Regfan]

You play on em? What's your toon's name?

My past accounts were Regfan and Maxwell there, I have a current one but I rarely play nowadays and I'd rather keep it a secret.

[Moratorium]

vote: Xayzeck

L-1

[Xayzeck]

And the point about the nightkill is massive, if for instance you’re town and got nightkilled it would be very unnatural for me to come out and say you were nightkilled because you weren’t going to be msylnched when I was planning on pushing on you but that’s what you’ve done with Wolfy.

I think maybe you've misunderstood the mislynch comment?

Wolfy was pretty townread by majority of the playerlist, I thought he could be scum. I thought BBT or Shinobi would have died, because they were my stronger townreads and most of the playerlist had them as town too. Wolfy never got wagoned D1, and hardly got suspected at all. He wasn't going to get mislynched anytime soon, but had he lived I would have pushed him anyway until I thought he wasn't scum.

If I'm misunderstanding you here, please enlighten me, because I really don't know where you're going with this point.

[Xayzeck]

I am town as fuck and you better see it sooner rather than later.

you've got like 4 posts, what? your slot doesn't exactly set you up to be able to say this.

[Xayzeck]

I know your play better and you feel scum, scum, scum here. Do something about it!

You pretty much played with me in one of my better towngames, if considering the bulk of your case to be meta, I don't understand this. If you see such a big difference between that towngame and this, then I find it hard to believe you're still giving me a chance to town up? Are you just trying to get some towncred for when I flip?

[Xayzeck]

Your point about scum finding it a bit more difficult to defend themselves actually makes sense though, given that a lot of they stuff they post will be lies and that is difficult to keep up for a whole game (unless you just don't post a lot and when you do it lacks a lot of content; points finger at Xayzeck and Mala).

From your last few posts, even though I've read them I couple of times, I still can't figure out how you're reading me. You seem to be constantly jumping between null and scum?

[Moratorium]

Are you just trying to get some towncred for when I flip?

Soooooooo...... straight up confession. Ok.

[Xayzeck]

Soooooooo...... straight up confession. Ok.

lol

how exactly?

[Moratorium]

SCUM (Strongest -> Weakest)

5) Xayzeck - I am reading Xayzeck as scum for several reasons. I partly agree with Moratorium's Post 29 about town Xayzeck thinking L-2 votes in RVS are scummy while doing it here. To add onto that though, what I really found off was that in the game that Mora linked (Micro 307), Xayzeck was very pro-active in the RVS phase and actually scumhunting and trying to move the game forward. See even his first fifteen posts there and there is so much genuine scumhunting, and poking and prodding at various players while providing his thoughts on the game. Xayzeck as town is relaxed, confident, and uses the RVS phase as a springboard to scumhunt. On the other hand, look at his posts in Micro 299 where he comes across as much more uneasy, quickly townreads his accuser and tries to deflect and discredit. On that note, I also don't like his Post 30 where he brushes off Moratorium as town while trying to get suspicion on Selfie. Another thing that struck me was his naked vote on Selfie in Post 20 after Selfie put Mora at L-1 lacked any sort of engagement with Selfie. Compare this with how he engages Aegor in Micro 307 after Aegor's L-2 vote. Here he made no comment at all that Selfie put Mora at L-1, with no poking or prodding that is indicative of Xayzeck as town.

Need an opinion from you on Xayzeck that involves anything beyond the 30th post of this game.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Ding, ding, ding, ding, ding! We have a winner!! Do you believe both scum were on the wagon?

I think there's a decent chance both scum were on the wagon but given that 4 of the 6 unclear people alive were on the wagon that's not saying a whole lot? What I do think is important though is not locking your mindset into a "Both scum had to be on a wagon that was bad" because if it's plausible for one townie to be on it (And there is minimum 3 townies on that lynch) then it's plausible for everyone theoretically on it to be town. It's why I personally aren't a fan of VCA except in very specific instances such as scum lynches.

Agreed, that makes sense. I'm not convinced that both scum had to be on the wagon by any means, it was just an idea. It could quite as easily be just one scum on the wagon.

In Post 775 you state the only way you can see Shinobi as scum is if Mala is his partner - don't really agree with that, don't think it's impossible for Scum!Shinobi to defend Town!Mala but okay, Shinobi is by no means new to mafia he's been playing for a long long time over at epicmafia and one of the best ways to attain town cred would be white knighting a townie so I'm not ruling him out for that at all. Earlier than that though you expressed doubt on this read in Post 405 but really the only explanation of your read on him is back in Post 211 which is a long time ago. So if I'm missing a more recent explanation just link it to me otherwise can you let me know what your updated/current town read on him is based on please.

I'm town-reading Shinobi for his continued defence of Mala. I may be wrong, but I don't see a scum Shinobi defending a scum Mala in that way; although I believe it is more possible now than I did before, given that I thought he was new to this game when in actual fact, he has a lot of experience. I don't think a scum Shinobi defends anybody in this manner actually, going against the majority doesn't seem like a good idea if you're scum, especially when town were in such a desperate situation.

Spoiler: Why Shinobi is town

Before, I respond to anything else in this post, I'm just going to come out and say it:

We are lynching on day 1. That is going to happen. I'll strongarm a lynch if I have to, I'm just not entirely convinced that Mala is scum yet. The lying thing is suspicious (if she is actually lying, which I haven't even determined myself), but if she actually is mafia, then she would have no reason to lie with her back to the wall with me defending her the way I am.

And then there's the fact that I still need to go reread all the meta stuff that these two have been posting to see if I can find any discrepancies in what has been going on, and you can see why I'm a little hesitant to finalize my vote. If we don't have a focus target on the 26th, then I'm just gonna vote Mala because fuck it we need to lynch.

Furthermore, I'm going to move my vote around a lot. That's going to happen and you're going to have to accept it. I'm going to vote the people I think are scum at the end of the day, and I'm not particularly convinced on anyone as of right now. What, you want me to just tunnel every single player I get a slight scumread on? Because that's what you're essentially telling me to do.

I'll be back later, hopefully with findings and more opinions.

@Mala:
You seem completely active this game as scum. A most recently completed game. Like today.
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=38067

I am hard pressed to find out the games where you got lynched, town/scum. I just seem to see you keep getting NKed or endgamed. Only found one game where you were town when you got lynched. I am lazy to search anymore so....

Oh for fuck's sake.

Mala, why the hell did you do that?

Vote Count Analysis

We get it. I flip-flopped a lot on this lynch. You didn't need a graph to tell us. I'm still not convinced that Mala is scum, but her last statement is going to lead to her getting lynched no matter what.

MM, do me a favor and check me so I don't get lynched tomorrow if she flips scum.

Mala just towntold. Not near a computer right now but this lynch is wrong.

Will explain when I get the chance.

So here's what I think of the Mala lynch:

I stand by the fact that the initial reasons for scumreading her are bad. You can talk about meta all you want, but that doesn't really cover the fact that lying in this situation is null to the point of being silly. Was I defending her when she supposedly "lied?" I think other players are picking at that logic way harder than needed. The bottom line is that if Mala dies at any point and flips scum, I'm going to be in a shitload of trouble because "hesitating" or "defending" or however you want to talk about it. I, however, just don't see her flipping scum at this point.

First, let's take a look at her defense. She already tried to defend herself using meta, which has been picked apart because she lied. Let's assume for a second that she did. Why does lying make her scum in this case? More importantly, why would she lie about

meta

of all things? Meta is such an unbelievably hard thing to lie about, especially when anyone doing the research could disprove it if they really wanted to.

Just lynch me. Wicked helped me gain confident that I'm not gonna be totally fucked by meta when I'm scum. I'm done being lynched every single time as either alignment. Wicked was my stepping stone. My scum play went south when I rolled scum 8-9 times in a row with two town games in between. I created evil regals because I needed a break from everyone knowing my meta and I wanted a fresh start.

My lynch is inevitable right now. If its not now it will be in the future. I'm a distraction; town thinks I'm scummy; scum sees me as a easy lynch.

I derp'd. I forgot the setup, I didn't have astounding reads.

So lynch me. I'm at L-1 and I'm a VT.

Reads as follows:

Town:

Mm
Eco (that guy)
Shin

Null-Leaning town:

Mora

Null-leaning scum:

Xayz

Scum:

{BBT/Wolfy}
Enomis

We're going to ignore all the AtE, because it's useless. Martyrs, as a general rule, are usually town because town players don't have the same kind of attachment to their games as scum players do. Scum martyrs most certainly don't sit here giving us reads all the way to the end. The concept of giving her reads when facing the bullets is such a pro-town move that I want to call this one of the towniest posts in the game for that exact reason. Scum's job when getting lynched is to deny information. Mala is most certainly not denying information.

Even assuming that she lied, there's simply no way for us to sit here and say "yeah she's 100% scum" because of it. Lying could be a townslip, or a scumslip, and you have absolutely no way of knowing what the difference is. But that point is mostly irrelevant, because Mala wouldn't sit here and give us information regarding her reads if she were scum in the first place.

If I really wanted to lynch someone, it would be enomis:

Also guys wicked just ended last night. My posts yesterday about meta were during the day. I won't a) talk about ongoing games b) comprise the game by saying 'oh yeah btw I have recently destroyed my scum meta by manipulating a game!' When it's not finished.

I worked my ass off in wicked to get where I was there and wasn't jereopadizing it here even though I was self meta'ing.

Ermm, No look here. Shouldn't your thoughts be:" Oh no, i am being being accused to being scum. Lets use my meta of me being inactive as scum as a defense. But i have an ongoing game where i am scum and i am active. Therefore I should not

LIE

to town here by using my meta as my defense since that is going to be not true. I should prolly use some other method."

The above is maybe what town mala would have thought?

I am satisfied with my vote.

Someone hammer please.

This post

reeks

of storyline lynch. Lying isn't a great move, by any circumstance, but enomis is using lying as his main reason for pushing this lynch. I've already stated that lying is null at best, but for a player like enomis who has been here for 2 years, it sounds like a copout.

And then there's the fact that he admits that she might be town, and then asks someone to hammer anyway. Because...That's why you lynch people, I guess? Because you think they could be town? It's a shit reason for lynching someone, and I don't like it.

VOTE: enomis

I...think I covered everything regarding the way that I feel right now.

Those posts made me believe Shinobi was town after his strange behaviour around the Mala lynch. The first post just comes across as extremely town, his reaction to Mala slipping up implies that he is worried that should she flip scum, he will be lynched next. He furthers this asking the cop to check him to try and keep himself alive the next day. Of course, if he was scum he would know that they could just roleblock the cop so he was safe to ask this, but I just don't see it.

He follows this up with a solid post for his reasons against the Mala lynch, and attempts to provide a case on somebody else. Again, a very towny post.

Quick thoughts before I commence re-read: Regfan, you are damn near about to lose your right-to-read-F-16-card if you continue along with vein. I am town as fuck and you better see it sooner rather than later.

You have nowhere near enough posts to be claiming such things.

[JacobSavage]

Votecount 2.4

0

1

2

3

4

Xayzeck[3]:

Malakittens, Regfan, Moratorium

[L-1]

Jcozmo [1]:Xayzeck

Malakittens [1]: BlueBloodedToffee,

Not Voting [2]:

F-16_Fighting_Falcon, Shinobi

With 7 alive it takes

4

to lynch[/i]

Deadline is 20^th May 2014 at 2200 BST ((expired on 2014-05-20 22:00:00))

[Regfan]

Just a heads up; I'm going to be away for most of tonight/tomorrow so I'd rather if no one hammered while I'm gone. I'll try and check the thread here and there on my phone but posting on it is incredibly frustrating / near impossible.

F-16, I know you've been online and posting elsewhere a lot so I'm really hoping this long delay from you catching up on the other pages and posting content and analysis on them is because you're spending time and writing a wall and not because you're dodging this game. I actually do want to see your updated thoughts (Especially on the trio of Shinobi/BBT/Xay) before a hammer is dropped today.

BBT, thanks for the explanation on the Shinobi town read, still don't really agree with the "Shin defending Mala is a strong town tell because scum don't go against the grain" logic but I can at least see where you're coming from. The one post in the spoilered quotes that I do read as townish though is Post 493, the others especially the "Investigate me" one are most certainly not town tells (You pointed out the reasoning yourself; scum know that it's impossible for an investigation to go through therefore they can easily say things like that to try and seem town). I guess I just really want you to see the alternate possibility being Shin!Scum, MalaTown! that the end of D1 was a terrible position for town to be in and there's a lot of scum motivation for what Shinobi did there; white-knighting and defending a townie while still driving a mslynch, it's pretty much perfect scum play for a situation like that. With that said it's very plausible that he's town that did town read Mala and thus wanted to prevent her lynch, I'm not decided which it is but I just don't want you to discount him for what I believe is incorrect reasoning.

Wolfy was pretty townread by majority of the playerlist, I thought he could be scum. I thought BBT or Shinobi would have died, because they were my stronger townreads and most of the playerlist had them as town too. Wolfy never got wagoned D1, and hardly got suspected at all

. He wasn't going to get mislynched anytime soon, but had he lived I would have pushed him anyway until I thought he wasn't scum.

The bolded is the disconnect I'm talking about, if you were going to hard push on him then he wasn't "unlynchable" and therefore you classifying his death as potentially because he wasn't going to be lynched is very unnatural. Like I said it'd be the same thing as if he you got NKed N3 and I said "you were not going to be mslynched" it doesn't match with my thoughts and stances said prior and thus would be very contrived.

Really though you're still not trying to scumhunt here at all, explain your reads in detail or your thoughts on things. I see no real town motivation behind your posts.

Soooooooo...... straight up confession. Ok.

Yeah, I'm struggling to see another way of reading that; For anyone unsure what we're talking about Xay accused F-16's push on him to be for "town-cred" and the largest town cred that's attained is by pushing through a scum lynch.

[Shinobi]

Xay, you should probably claim anyway. Just fyi.

I really love how Reg thinks so highly of me. Like I'm honestly flattered.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I'm here and I have been catching up and thinking about this game and I'll post my thoughts soon. I read through the last few pages and I am leaning much more towards BBT being town especially with the dogged pushes on Mala and Mora despite no one buying it and it comes across like he genuinely believes in his reads.