Open 572: Nightless Vengeful Mayhem - Game Over

[Not_Mafia]

VC 4.02

Blair (0)-

Phillammon (1)-

Fink

Shaddowez (0)-

Thor665 (0)-

droog (0)-

Fink (0)-

Dyslexicon (0)-

DCLXVI (0)-

Not Voting (7)-

Blair, Phillammon, Shaddowez, Thor665, droog, Dyslexicon, DCLXVI

With

8

alive, it takes

5

to lynch.

Deadline is in

(expired on 2014-10-21 20:00:00)

- Oct 21th 19:00 GMT

[Fink]

I agree with Phil (weird, right?).

Blair got poked twice, she had a habit of not commenting for stretches at a time, it isn't that surprising that she thinks she doesn't have time. I don't think there's anything worth reading into that from either side. I am interested in seeing what the new player says, a bit of fresh perspective could be nice, and might help to illuminate the alignment of the slot later, Blair's recent lack of posting wasn't giving us much to look at.

I don't think we can or should expect Blair's replacement to explain her thought processes. Whether Blair was town or scum, her motivations are her own, and I don't think a new player would have any more insight into that than the rest of us.

And I know I'm in the minority, but I'm going to be opposed to vote for Blair's replament for some time, at least until there is time for more interactions. Barring something really really scummy, I'm not going to be interested in lynching that slot today.

Really excited for some Droog, Roman Numeral Guy, and Blair replacement contributions. I feel like Dys, Phil, Thor, Shaddowez, and I have all sort of said what we have to say at the moment, and since we can't all agree on a wagon, we need the other half of town to chime in here.

[Thor665]

And I know I'm in the minority, but I'm going to be opposed to vote for Blair's replament for some time, at least until there is time for more interactions. Barring something really really scummy, I'm not going to be interested in lynching that slot today.

This is silly.

Either the slot was or was not scummy.
I will agree the replacement can't properly defend what Blair did - but I am not promising to not vote the new player because of that, the slot remains scummy to me, and the new player is working from a position of 'scum' not a position of 'neutral and new'.

[Fink]

See, for me the new player is working from a position of "has done some scummy things, but has seemed townie at times too, and it's hard to tell how much on either side is due to Blair not paying as much attention as she should have been." I can see the point of view of scum-Blair or town-Blair, and I don't think I'll have enough from that slot to be happy condoning or condeming it until more interactions and quite a bit of new talk from the new player. Preferably with a couple different votes.

If the replacement comes in and is very scummy, I'd vote for it, but I think their off my would-lynch list by default. But I knew you'd take your position, I'm not surprised or confused by it. I just don't agree.

[Dyslexicon]

What do you all think of Shadow's latest posts?

[Fink]

Regarding Shaddowez' recent posts

They're quite dense, aren't they?

Okay, so the thing that stood out the most to me is that his reasons for seeing a potential link between Dyslexicon and Acryon as a scumteam seem like huge stretching. But he provided a ton of links that we can check and see that there isn't much of a connection between you guys. At first and second glance, it looks to me like taking a gut read and going back and trying to explain it with logic after the fact. It

could

be scum trying to explain a made up thing, but he already said:

Even though I was finding it difficult to see you (

Dyslexicon

) as a scum team with acryon, there was no possible way I saw you as a scum team with Phil. I also didn't really see an acryon/Phil team

So I'd really think he wouldn't have to explain the scum team thing as hard as he did, with all those links. I think the reasoning behind those links is bad, there's no real reason to see an Acryon/Dys scumteam. I also think it's willfully blind to only be willing to look at scumteams including 2 of your three scum reads, but if we learn anything from Acryon it's that town can do things like that too. Sigh.

I can see the interpretation of these recent posts as a scum-motivated Wall of Impenetrable Bullshit, and I already got into a long exchange with Shaddowez the other day about what I see as an irrationaly scum read on Dyslexicon, which reads a lot like him defending a gut read with bad logic. I'm not willing to vote for him off those posts right now, but they are indeed very dense and could be hiding unknown depths.

I think the scrambling moves Shaddowez a bit more in the scum direction for me, as his responses the other day did, but I'm not sold yet.

@Dys: What do you see in those responses that you don't like? Specifically, what's the scum-motive for his responses? I agree the logic is not good, and the explaination isn't that clear, but I get the impression there is something else bugging you about them. Care to share?

@Shaddowez: Why

didn't

you see a Phil/Acryon scum team. Obviously that

isn't

the scum team, but at the time, I thought it was a reasonable explaination (in fact, I thought it was

the

most reasonable explaination) for both of their behavior as the wagons developed on them. You dismissed it almost out of hand. Why?

[Phillammon]

"has done some scummy things, but has seemed townie at times too, and it's hard to tell how much on either side is due to Blair not paying as much attention as she should have been." I can see the point of view of scum-Blair or town-Blair

Okay, so I just want to chime in and say that those are almost exactly my thoughts on Blair too. You're right, we do agree on some things. Though I will still cite my post on Dys's reaction to your substitution regarding attitudes towards replacements, all the same.

[Dyslexicon]

I feel like I'm answering the same questions again.

(1)

- First off, seeing something as unlikely (or not really seeing it, however it was phrased), does not mean it's impossible. Now, let's look at my thought process again: I only had a total of three scum reads. Dys, acryon, and Phil. Since we know there are two scum, this gives me three total scum teams to work with:
{Dys, Acryon}, {Dys, Phil}, {Acryon, Phil}. Of those three choices, the one I thought least likely, and almost impossible, was you and Phil. I don't really see a connection between you and anybody else, which is why when acryon flipped town I was willing to move you out of a scum read.

You've now said you couldn't see me on a team with Acryon, Phil or anyone else.

(2)

- I'm not sure I exactly understand what you're asking here. I explained in my reads list is 586 and in my response to you in 883 why I was voting for you. If you're asking specifically about 712, that doesn't make sense since I said I was going to move my vote, which I did in 713. I also already admitted I should have been looking closer at the possible acryon/Phil scum team but I didn't, though that point is completely moot now.

I asked why it made sense to vote me, and yes I ask about 712 in which you clearly state that you liked your vote on me but were willing to compromise on acryon or Phil to ensure a lynch. I ask because it doesn't make sense if you were thinking in the terms you are saying here, namely me not being on a team with anyone, but still liking to vote me the most. It reads saying things to say things, trying to cover up a mindset that doesn't make coherent sense as a town mindframe.

The fact that you clearly state that you did not see acryon/Dys team, and then state "now that acryon has flipped town" and change your read on me doesn't make sense as acryon's flip in itself shouldn't affect your read on me if you didn't see a link in the first place.

Everybody

- What are your thoughts on the Blair replace? Whoever takes over that slot is going to have to try and figure out her mentality with regards to the whole Thor debate, which was a large part of her content.

No other thoughts than it kind of sucks and I hope we get a replacement soon that is able to catch up properly. And your's?

@Dys: What do you see in those responses that you don't like? Specifically, what's the scum-motive for his responses? I agree the logic is not good, and the explaination isn't that clear, but I get the impression there is something else bugging you about them. Care to share?

The scum motive is generating bullshit to cover up a thought process that doesn't make sense. I find it hard to believe his switches from "looking through ISO's I could see acryon/dys" to "really can't see acryon/dys" in the first place. The elaborate post by post thought process thing just looks way too fabricated and unnatural. The whole thing seems like BS to me because if he has had us as consistent scum reads then the "break up" in our possible teaming just doesn't make sense. Why then would this not change his reads? I think he's needing to rationalize his statements that are plain contradicting and it reads like scrambling and just making up justification, but it still doesn't make sense as a coherent thought process to me. If I was his prefered scum read, but not likely teamed with acryon, Phil or anyone else, how does this even make sense? He's the one saying he's been thinking in teams like this in the first place.

I didn't like his way of voting acryon while stating not seeing us as teamed in the first place. Since acryon was town, reads like jumping on a mislynch while still making it so that he could go back to "suspecting" me just the same afterwards. However, now that I've pointed out his statements doesn't make sense he's trying to scamble and realize I'd logically not be his biggest scum read.

What he's said is this: He was ok

compromising

his vote to either of acryon and Phil by 712. I was unlikely teamed with either (or anyone else). Acryon was scummier than Phil so he voted Acryon. Acryon flipped town and (and so!) he now reads me null/town since Phil is still scummy. If Phil is scummy (and scummier than me now), and acryon was even scummier than Phil, why then did he feel he needed to compromise on his vote? What happened after 712 that made him switch his read on me? (I don't have that many posts before he switches his reads, and a lot of them are questioning him about this).

It doesn't make sense to me at all. Am I crazy to think this? O.o Thoughts?

Okay, so I just want to chime in and say that those are almost exactly my thoughts on Blair too. You're right, we do agree on some things. Though I will still cite my post on Dys's reaction to your substitution regarding attitudes towards replacements, all the same.

What reaction?

[Phillammon]

Your reaction in #478 that I was SEVERELY displeased with. (I'll summarize it as "My read on YYR doesn't matter cause Fink is in that slot now", though I admit that is an oversimplification. I still take issue with it.)

[Dyslexicon]

"has done some scummy things, but has seemed townie at times too, and it's hard to tell how much on either side is due to Blair not paying as much attention as she should have been." I can see the point of view of scum-Blair or town-Blair

Okay, so I just want to chime in and say that those are almost exactly my thoughts on Blair too. You're right, we do agree on some things. Though I will still cite my post on Dys's reaction to your substitution regarding attitudes towards replacements, all the same.

Also, can you please answer at least some questions that are directed at you? Or say that you're not going to if you're not?

@Phil, What do you think of Thor's consistent town read of you?

[Dyslexicon]

Your reaction in #478 that I was SEVERELY displeased with. (I'll summarize it as "My read on YYR doesn't matter cause Fink is in that slot now", though I admit that is an oversimplification. I still take issue with it.)

It didn't matter so much that I needed to spend any more room on it in already large posts because he was very null and had'n't contributed a lot. I already explained this, did you see that?

[Dyslexicon]

@Phil, also while you're here, thoughts on Shadow and his recent posts?

[shaddowez]

@Shaddowez: Why didn't you see a Phil/Acryon scum team. Obviously that isn't the scum team, but at the time, I thought it was a reasonable explaination (in fact, I thought it was the most reasonable explaination) for both of their behavior as the wagons developed on them. You dismissed it almost out of hand. Why?

It's not that I didn't

see

an acryon/Phil scum team, it's that I never looked for one in the first place. I think I mentioned in one of my replies to Dys, and I'm still not sure why I never looked for one. The best I can think is that since I had Dys as my first scum read, I was more intent on looking for partnerships with her rather than her as town and other people as a scum team - call it confbias.

You've now said you couldn't see me on a team with Acryon, Phil or anyone else.

Now you're just twisting my words to fit your agenda.

No other thoughts than it kind of sucks and I hope we get a replacement soon that is able to catch up properly. And your's?

I don't think replacing in general is alignment indicative. The issue I have with this specific replace is that Blair and Thor had such a convoluted argument that I don't think a replacement is ever going to be able to do justice to the slot.

Dys

- You're focusing on Phil not answering questions. What are your thoughts on DCL continuing to promise reads and vanishing?

[shaddowez]

Also, I'll be around intermittently tonight, but then V/LA for the weekend.

@MOD

- I'll be V/LA until Monday, 10/13

[Fink]

Until we see some actual answers to all this brilliant, well-thought-out stuff:

VOTE: DCLXVI

This does not mean I'm not suspicous of Phil, he's still my top scum read. But I'm not lacking intention to lynch with this vote either. If scum are allowed to get away with this level of obfuscation and refusal to answer anything, they can get away with too much.

You got some 'spailing to do DCLXVI. Get in here and do it before too many other people vote with me.

With this amount of time passed, it's increasingly hard to believe this was all stuff that could have been answered off the cuff but you chose not to. Seems more like stretching for time to come up with things to meet our expectations.

[Fink]

Dys,

I'm sorry, I'm just not seeing the vote for Shaddowez right now. Ugh, this is way too gut-read, but I just can't see him as anything but a compromise lynch right now. I'm certainly not confident in his towniness either, but I think he's no better than null, while I think Phil, and DCLXVI if he keeps playing coy like this, are even more suspicous. You're not crazy, Shaddowez' reasoning does not make much sense. But the way he's presenting it, to me, looks like something reasonable coming from town who hasn't been thinking things through enough.

If Phil flips town, I'll be a hell of a lot more suspicous of Shaddowez. But I don't think that is likely.
If Phil flips scum, I'll be most suspicous of DCLXVI. I like that pairing much better.

[Not_Mafia]

Also, I'll be around intermittently tonight, but then V/LA for the weekend.

@MOD

- I'll be V/LA until Monday, 10/13

Noted

[Thor665]

Vote: Blair's replacement

This thread is dead, and she should have a warm welcome waiting for her.

[Fink]

Come on Thor, join me on DCLXVI until he produces the goods. Maybe enough votes will actually get an explaination.

Enough

votes will clarify his allignment permanently, and if explainations are not forthcoming, I think that's a reasonable way to get results too.

@Mod: Can we get a prod on DCLXVI please? And one on Droog if he doesn't post in the next two hours...

[Not_Mafia]

DCLXVI has been prodded. He has 24 hours to respond in thread or be replaced.

[droog]

heh, i just got back. have been busy all week.
will do some rereading (probably back to page 30)
will post reactions then a fink case

[Fink]

Delightful.

Try not to let yourself be blinded by scumreading me though please. Pay a bit of attention to what I'm saying about Phil.

[droog]

Also, regarding hurting town's ability to make a reasoned decision, I feel like Thor deciding for people what they are doing is a good example of that.

I don't know, Thor's comment that the two most likely lynch candidates end up voting for each other seems perfectly reasonable to me.

Why do you think that comment is scummy, rather than just aggressive/presumptious?

If you want to affect the wagon you need to be talking to the people voting it, not the obv. votes that aren't placed yet.

I'm not terribly interested in defending Acryon, I think he's a perfectly reasonable lynch candidate. If anything, I'm hammer-curious myself. But his very reasonableness as a lynch candidate without any real

thing

defining that, and the speed with which his wagon took off are what worry me, and I think it's worth questioning him before he dies. I don't see why that's surprising at all. And getting his vote actually onto Phil would give others (you/Droog/adorable kitty roman numeral guy) some more leverage to also queston Phil. I think it's self-evident that talking to Acyron is the best use of my time right now.

1. I think it is non-impossible, but quite unlikely that a Thor wagon could gain momentum, but I do think it is worth keeping my vote to send the message that I am serious about thinking he is scum, and I don't want to let him off the hook.

That message is obvious. Why is that more important to you than applying pressure to pressurable people? What do you think voting for Thor is actually accomplishing if you die when Phil comes back?

2. I don't see how abstaining from voting for someone else hurts the town's ability to make a reasoned decision. If my vote were to go anywhere, it would go to Dys or Phil, but as I've implied, I'm less convinced that they are scum than I am of Thor as scum. I think keeping my vote on Thor benefits town more than switching to one of those others, for the reasons I answered in 1.

Your vote isn't applying any pressure to anyone. Thor is not shaking in his boots with fear that he's getting lynched today. If you always abstain until the last possible minute, it makes town react based on urgency rather than talking it through. Thoughts?

And while you're at it, why are you still talking about voting for Dys? What in the last few pages makes you think a vote there is going to do any good?

3. If people honestly don't see what I see, then the wagon makes sense I guess. They are wrong, and I certainly think there are better options for lynches to reveal information(Dys and Phil both fit that I think).

Who's the scummiest person on your wagon besides Thor?

If Phi flips scum, who is your top suspect?

If Phil flips town, who is your top suspect?

my reasoning is, the more posts you make, the more likely you are to make a scumslip

@ DCLXVI, Droog, Acryon, Shaddowz, Thor

So what do you guys think of this earlier comment given Phil's recent play? It seems suspicious to me that he's playing with so little commentary, especially now that he's suspected. He seems to be minimizing his responses, or is this just in my imagination? He still hasn't moved his vote OR explained his vote on me. I think it all fits with my over-cautious scum explaination, given that he agrees that that is how scum should play?

@ Acryon: Don't you see how voting Phil to put him at L-1 could put more pressure on him here? It would give the others the ability to demand some real answers out of him. If you're going to keep voting Thor, how about you at least make a case on him, other than the not-taking-his-vote-off-wyguerts thing, which no one but you thinks is suspicious.

So in my opinion Shaddowez had by far the scummiest jump onto the Acryon wagon. DCLXVI came into the game, read it, and placed a vote on a non-existant wagon that turned out to be pretty damn viable, that doesn't seem scummy to me at all. Thor has been jumping at the bit to get a lynchable wagon going (something I don't actually read as scummy coming from him right now) and has never had much read on Acryon. I have 0 difficulty believing Thor would see Acryon as a viable lynch candidate and a perfectly reasonable compromise. Droog had been catching up on the last several days and saying for a while he needed to reevaluate things, when he came back, he moved his vote based on the other two responses and preferring Acryon to Phil I think. Shaddowez just kind of came and tagged on to a rapidly rising wagon to put it into lynch range.

IMO Scummiest-> Towniest looking only at how votes were placed on the Acryon-wagon is Shaddowez > Droog > Thor > DCLXVI

I'm really surprised Acryon isn't looking at this sort of thing

at all

and it certainly brings me closer to wanting to hammer him. Especially given that Acryon had Shaddowez as only a lean town before, while DCLXVI was a straight up town read. Acryon seems completely disinterested in explaining this, he seems to have 0 interest in scumhunting, just in pushing his one target.

Also, Acryon, don't say it's "mathematically wrong" when you obviously aren't doing any math.

Spoiler: math example using numbers pulled out of my ass, because I'm annoyed at the phrase "mathematically wrong"

Let's say Thor has a 5% chance of getting lynched today (I think that's being generous.)
Let's say you are overconfident and think Thor has a 75% chance of voting scum.
Not counting yourself, assuming Thor is scum, there are 7 people left. Looking at your reads list, let's say you have no interest in voting for me or Droog, so there is 1 scum in 5 people if you assume Thor is scum. That means, even if your scum read on Phil were tied with Blair/DCLXVI/Shaddowez/Dys (i.e. I'm

seriously

underestimating this because you say he's your #2 scum read), that gives Phil a 20% chance of being scum to you.
So by voting for Thor, you have a ~4% chance of lynching scum.
Let's say you could vote for Phil and make it 50-50 that he gets lynched (it's probably a bit less than that, but you get my point, since if you're town, you know you are town and shouldn't desire that outocem.)
Then you'd have a 10% chance of lynching scum by voting Phil, accounting for him being town 80% and maybe not being lynched.
In this case, by not voting, you're making it LESS likely that your scum reads will be lynched, since presumably you have yourself as a town read.

IT IS MATHEMATICALLY REASONABLE TO VOTE FOR YOUR LESSER SCUM READ.

Okay, so that math example was probably pointless, but GRRRRRRRR

i dont want to write a case yet. spar me.

[droog]

oops did not mean to quote

[droog]

So what do you guys think of this earlier comment given Phil's recent play? It seems suspicious to me that he's playing with so little commentary, especially now that he's suspected. He seems to be minimizing his responses, or is this just in my imagination? He still hasn't moved his vote OR explained his vote on me. I think it all fits with my over-cautious scum explaination, given that he agrees that that is how scum should play?

thor says that gingers have big dicks
thor then dies his hair red
what do you assume about thor?

phil says that scum do x
phil then does x
what do you assume about phil?