Open 572: Nightless Vengeful Mayhem - Game Over
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Fink Goon
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Hi guys, I'm going to try to read the whole thread today, I've got the day off and it's short. I'll post a couple intermittent thoughts as I go along, will try not to run off at the keyboard too much.
This is my first game on Mafiascum but I've played a bunch in real life. I've read a few games on here and read some of the strategy articles and forum posts. Thanks to Not_Mafia for taking a chance on me, I'll do my best not to be an idiot. Thanks for having me.-
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Okay, 10 pages in out of 20, I guess I should post some rough thoughts/reads:
Thor665: Crazy and/or scum, Initially I was thinking crazy town, then scum, then crazy scum and at this point I'm kind of back to crazy town?
Droog: Initially I had him as scummiest, but during the annoying Thor fight, he seemed pretty pro town, so he's back to normal at this halfway point, leaning town.
Shaddowez: Town Lurker, I got a sort of town read on him early, and the wgeurts vote doesn't change that for me.
Acryon: slightly scummy, was out of it for the first day, so not too sure on this
Phillammon: Towny once he finally started talking
Blair: Initially I thought pretty towny, then seemed like maybe scummy trying to exploit a crazy Thor, and now I'm kind of back to even.
Dyslexicon: No real read one way or the other.
Bins/Fokem: Still hasn't said anything.
So yeah, these are all changing as the page goes on, I'll have more final thoughts in a couple hours, but figured I should post at leastsomethingat the halfway mark, and it's nice to have a record for myself of my current feelings. May as well make it public.-
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Top of page 15 update (almost caught up!)
Droog has become my most solid town read, just all-around pushing things in the right direction, trying to curb some of the play that seems actively anti-town.
Phillammon looks much worse, seems stretching a lot for pushing any of several mislynches in #328, especially as reading through this, the several clarifications on the case on my predecessory were lost in the noise to me reading it, I find it hard to believe it's so obvious and unlikely to him that others could also lose that in the noise.
Thor665 has done much more harm than good in my opinion. Still can't tell whether or not this makes him scum, but he has made this catching up extremely painful and I think helped others to stay in the background without a lot to go on. I'm 50-50 on him being scum at this point, but I think he's certainly helping them, deliberately or accidentally.-
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... and I'm caught up!
In post 463, droog wrote:Is acryons terrible argument a plot to get us to town read him
Does anyone understand his argument
I can't see scum making it otherwise
My thoughts exactly on this. I think acryon's argument is dumb, but I think it's probably town.
Blair was towny at the start and recently, but the way she kept engaging with Thor seemed suspicious while reading it. But I think that the most logical explaination at this point is that she got understandably frustrated with Thor and wouldn't let it drop.
Shaddowez still seems like a townish lurker to me, but there still isn't that much to go on.
Droog is still my top town read.
Bins hasn't really said enough for me to form much of an opinion, but I certainly think there are better targets today.
Dyslexicon has really stepped it up in this last page, but I never felt terribly negative about her anyway.
So I'm most inclined to vote for Thor or Phillammon. I don't understand why Thor should get a free pass for wasting countless pages with unhelpful non-responses, circular arguments, and just making everything painful to read and generally upping the uselessness level of that reading since the vast majority of the talking is people having stupid arguments with him. He's hurting the town either as crazy town or as crazily brave scum. I think 50-50 he's scum, and if he's town, we'd be better off without him. If that wagon gets going I would totally vote Thor.
But my top scumread is Phillammon, mostly for post #328 as I said before. I'll post a more detailed thing on that in a moment, but for now:
VOTE: Phillammon-
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So while I agree with many of the points in the previous post on Phillammon, in typing up my own, I've realized that my primary reasons for voting him are actually pretty tied into my own knowledge that the YYR slot is Town. So if you think I'm scum, disregard this and only pay attention to the other one I guess.
Some big quotes behind these spoilers, really I want them here for a reference so they're all in one place, I'd say don't bother rereading them if you don't feel you need the reference.
So for context, I want to quoteSpoiler: Phillammon's case on YYR
Regarding YYR's interaction around Johnny: I have no idea what he was doing, but I want to talk about it for a moment. YYR essentially says nothing about Johnny other than that he doesn't buy Cheetory's playing-along response and then seems to stick with that weird vote on Cheetory, defend Johnny lightly "Debating whether Johnny would make such a weak push on a Blair as a scummate. Seems a little too weak for it to be the strong busing I know Johnny is willing to do. Don't know how much he'd be willing to do in for this setup, though. Meh." (Reading this for the third time, I can totally see the suspicion now.) And that's it.
So my problem, and the reason I'm throwing out a chunk of this and revising is that I think YYR does look suspicious, and if you suspect my slot, my main reason for voting Phillammon doesn't make any sense: it's predicated on me being town. Makes the ammount of quote searching I did on Phillammon seem kind of pointless now...
Anyway, here it is:
In post 328, Phillammon wrote:
My fenceposting on you(Blair)has primarily been because you are commiting things that I both consider town and scumtells/town and scum behaviour. I did explain those, regardless of what you're claiming, but thankfully with your most recent post I've got more to throw on the pile with your YYR comment alone. Your request for reframe on the case on YYR- which has been reframed multiple times in posts between the posts you quoted, and thus you *must* have read if you were being thorough- strikes me as something of a stalling tactic on a slot that has been next to inactive and actively prod dodging in its most recent post. What it feels like you are trying to imply is that the slot's only garnering votes due to inactivity (which is not the case, search YYR in my and droog's ISOs), which is sorta corroborated by your list of reads. Trying to defend YYR against an attack which he isn't actually having used against him strikes me as really quite suspicious.
It's this right here that bugs me the most about him. My slot, the YYR slot,WASgarnering votes due to inactivity, at least that's how I read Droog's initial vote. Now it wasn'tonlydue to inactivity, and I have no idea what was going on with those initial few posts but I can see why that might also draw some votes. (Even stronger on the third read of that segment actually) But it's weird to dismiss that YYR's inactivity was a factor in putting votes on him (hoping he would speak up presumably). It seems to imply there is much more of a case on YYR than there actually was.
And I don't understand why defending an inactive account is suspicious when it seems like Blair's argument is that there are much better targets.
It isalsoweird to say that because Blair missed this, she must be scum or not paying attention (implying that people shouldn't listen to her other reads.) I had just read every damn post in the thread up to that point, and I had to go back looking for that stuff. It is a very easy sub-theme to get lost in the noise. And the other arguments that Phillammon had for YYR were 178 posts earlier in the thread.
My point being that there had beenverylittle discussion about YYR in recent posts, just "nothing has changed since wgeurts flip" and "Still thinking YYR is where my next lynch would go if Wgeurts flipped town" so it's not surprising that Blair would have forgotten this (I know I did) but Phillammon makes it out to be so obvious and central, while at the same time throwing a bunch of suspicioun on Blair for not going with it.
When I read this the first time, and when I just reread it, it sounds like in post #328 Phillammon is trying to get something started oneitherYYR (who isn'th there to defend himself) or Blair. And both are so slim, but both kind of follow what other people (who have generally garnered townier reads) are already doing. It reads to me like scum noticing that there are two as-yet unformed wagons on townies and trying to ensure that one or the other of them takes off.
But anyway, then there's also all the better reasons posted in the post a couple up from this one. Sorry for the size of this, but after I said I'd post, I wanted to explain my thought process.-
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On Dyslexicon "stepping it up"
I think mymainreason is that she's been incredibly passive for most of the game, but these posts look like she went through pretty much post-by-post commenting on things from quite a ways back every time they stuck out to her, not just for one person but for every person. I think she put substantially more effort into it than I did, and I felt like I spent too long on reading this thread.
I think it would be much easier for her if she were scum to continue doing more-or-less what she's been doing, with a bit more talking now to try to throw us onto someone else. This amount of effort (which seems almost excessive) seems to me like a town-member who is feeling guilty for not helping more. That's awfully subjective, and sure, she could take advantage of that as scum (although I think it's not THAT likely from someone so inactive, but I'm new, so what do I know?) so here are a few other things:
She notes that Droog posts reactions to things in real time, Shaddowez "comes off as having nothing to hide", and wants you guys to talk about what we can read into alignment from people being replaced. I don't think these really count as scum-hunting in a particularly helpful sense, but they seem like things she's obsessing about that would not be so front-and-center in her mind if she were scum. And that she's putting these things out there allowing us to sort of examine them, whichishelpful, andnotin a way that really pushes any wagons. I think getting everyone to look at things like Shaddowez posting style will be good for town, regardless of Dyslexicon's alignment. I know it's given me some stuff to pay attention to that I wasn't before, and in a town-hunting way.
She picks Bins as a strongest town read, which is sort of an odd pick. I don't agree with it myself, but I don't find Bins scummy either. Anyway, it again seems like a read that had some serious thought and feeling into it, even if I don't totally agree, it seems like something real, not just posting an easy thing to get us off her back.
Provides a bit of both sides on Thor, not really building a case, but it doesn't look to me to be the buddying you see either. It looks like weighing out both sides out loud and letting us see the result, which is what I think happened.
Sure, this is all subjective, and could all be wrong, but it iscertainlymuch higher effort than previous contributions. And it comes off pretty townie to me too, but that's besides the point that it's certainly a step up in terms of effort. It doesn't seem at all like someone who is commited to semi-lurking through the rest of the days with minimal posting.-
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On why I like Dyslexicon's case on Phillammon
As I see it, these are the central points: (with some commentary on them from me so it's not useless to read this)
- Phillammon telling wgeurts in post #134 ""If you're scum, then we can disregard them. Or even better, figure out who your remaining partner is from your reads" I didn't notice this when I read through that exchange myself, but it does seem like the kind of thing where town should be worrying that wgeurts is idiot-scum, and thus should NOT be warning him of a potential trap. On the other hand, scum knew he was town and wouldn't really be thinking about it.
- Phillammon in post #183 getting on Blair with Thor for attacking him and using the word illogical. I think Dyslexicon's point was that this was sort of piling on, but something I notice thinking about it is that if Thor is town, this is kind of refueling the fire of the same dumb argument. It doesn't actually contribute to any real case on Blair (using the word illogical, really???) but it doescontribute to keeping the same useless anti-town argument going with all the same repetitive requotes going nowhere.
- In post #275, setting up a future vote on YYR in the event that wgeurts flips town, but would do more analysis if wgeurts flips scum. But wgeurts is Phillammon's strongest scum-read (post #162), he doesn't want to do any more analysis now, and then he immeditaely moves onto YYR as was the plan. But why wouldn't his main plan be that wgeurts would flip scum as he had implied elsewhere. To me the implication is that he knew the answer.
- Stuff about post #328 that I can't even remember what I've said or not typing this. But that post is what put him on my scum-dar to begin with, it just bothered me in a bunch of ways.
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If you truly want to gain some useful information from a flip, shouldn't Bins and I both be allowed to live at least one day, so we have some more votes and talking to look through in light of our flips? There are 3 dead already, but the problem was they don't give very much information. Lynching the next two that would reveal the least seems weird.
Oh, and Thor is 2 people's #2 scum pick, which combined with acryon's vote means he has 3 people willing to vote for him, just like the others. Why write it off so quickly?-
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My point, Thor, was that I'm not lurking, but YYR was. Scum or town, am I not providing more things to analyze after I'm dead than he was? Why isn't it valuable to allow me the time to vote a few more times, interact with more people etc. I'd think that would provide much more information. But if I had been lurking all game, I'd totally agree with you.
I'll think the same thing about Bins' replacement too. But am I being totally crazy here, because this makes sense to me?-
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These two points went completely uncommented on, I'd like some thoughts please.
- Phillammon telling wgeurts in post 134 ""If you're scum, then we can disregard them. Or even better, figure out who your remaining partner is from your reads" I didn't notice this when I read through that exchange myself, but it does seem like the kind of thing where town should be worrying that wgeurts is idiot-scum, and thus should NOT be warning him of a potential trap. On the other hand, scum knew he was town and wouldn't really be thinking about it.
- In post 275, setting up a future vote on YYR in the event that wgeurts flips town, but would do more analysis if wgeurts flips scum. He's approaching this as if he thinks wgeurts is probably town, but wgeurts is Phillammon's strongest scum-read (post 162), he doesn't want to do any more analysis now. But why wouldn't his main plan be based around that wgeurts would flip scum as he had implied before. To me the implication is that he knew the answer.
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Regarding the mis-aimed link: it was my second "real" (about anything in a game) post on this site and I mis-used the post tag. I'm still not actually sure how it is supposed to work, since I don't know why it's redirecting to where it is. But I know it's not allowed to edit posts, I since linked the correct post a couple other times using quotes or URLs, and Thor had quoted the relevant post in it's entirety in response to Droog before I got on today. I really didn't know what else needed to be said.
No, I do not think misunderstand how the [post tag works is a tell. Especially because I correctly linked the same post in other places on the same subject.
Not sure what I should have done/said?-
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Regarding Blair:
The "if Dys flips scum, vote me, hold me to it" thing does come across as very confident, but without the context of other things it sounds like it could be a confident town-read by town. It seems perfectly likely that Blair could be frustrated with Thor and conceding this point because she has Dys as a strong town-read.
Now Icansee the argument for it as a scum-perspective, I don't think that's crazy, and admittedly my read on Blair swung back and forth when I caught up on the thread, but I don't think that's enough to push me to a scum read on Blair. If there is more evidence, I could see it on another day, but today, with what we know now, I have no interest in lynching Blair.
Thor has swung back and forth for me, but he really seems to be doing a lot of accusing people of not reading things, and making every little thing into a 5-post exchange with "well I thought I explained that fine" instead ofactually clarifying anything. And I don't find his posts to be as clear as he makes them out to be, just sort of dismissive of other people and their points without backing it up much.
I have no idea what Thor's actual case on Dyslexiconis, even after going back and rereading that post.
@Thor, instead of responding to this by saying "I think it's clear enough", could you just explain? Walk me through why I should be voting for Dyslexicon.-
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I got back into this because some friends and I played a couple games in the chat of VASSAL (internet board game playing program - module for a different game) and I realized I wanted to play some more. Once I decided to get into the internet thing again, and at the source as-it-were, I started reading some games and some strategy articles here. I've read all of the Mastin-academy stuff, for example. And most of the strategy articles on the wiki. Can't say I've absorbed them all, but I'm trying.
I'm elaborating because I figure the reason you're asking is because I've been using some of your lingo.-
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Thanks? Anyway, here's a post I've been working on for a while, we're theorhetically into Shaddowez paying attention time now. Got thinking about this while trying to figure out what YYR was doing on day 1. (Still not sure, but is it worth posting my thinking on that, or is that just useless at this point?)
Spoiler: The "Useful Defense" discussion
@Shaddowez: You seem to have come back to this pretty strongly as a scummy thing about Dyslexicon lately, but it was Droog who first said "useful scumhunting", Dyslexicon had just come in 2 posts later to argue with him about whether or not YYR's thing was pointless, essentially saying that he shouldn't be ruling things out as pointless so quickly. So Droogdidhave an opinion that this was useless while Dyslexicondidhave the opinion you don't like (nothing is necessarily useless), fair enough. But isn't it weird to jump on this as Dyslexicon setting up a useful defense, seeing as it was in reply to "I can't imagine any useful scumhunting coming from that question"?
I mean you seem to be giving this a lot of weight, but in context of that section of the thread, it seems more like a throw-away "Don't be so quick to shut down discussion" sort of comment. Why does it seem so significant to you?
Whyisn'tit a null-read we-think-about-things-differently comment?-
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In post 570, Thor665 wrote:
And my point is that players are not exempt for lynching for the idea of future interactions.
I will agree interactions are beneficial, I disagree that the lack of them qualifies as a reason not to lynch someone. If you agree with that then we have no issue.
Sure, completely agree. I just think that if you have two likely options, the one that is a new replacement of a lurker is worth putting on the back burner for more interactions. If I'm anyone's top read that makes sense, to vote for me, but given the case on YYR, I'm not sure why that would betop. Given the choice between two, I think I should be less preferentialtoday. That is what I was getting at. And actually, for the people who have YYR as theirtopscum read,why is that?Is that weird stuff really the most suspicious thing all game? I've found reasons to suspect a bunch of people (some of whom I'm fairly confident are town at this point.)
1. By the time someone is being asked for a reads list prior to lynch they'd have to be pretty dense scum not to be able to puzzle that one out. I personally only ask for this on the presumption the player might be town. If they are scum I ignore the post entirely and think it is foolish to do otherwise. I suppose that if he thought, like you claim to, that the final scum post should be analyzed, that...yeah...maybe? I dunno, do you honestly think any scum are confused about what to do at that point? I don't believe this, so the point doesn't sell me, but if you believe scum can be fooled like that I guess I see the point.
No I pretty much agree with your premise, I don't think that would be a good way to catch competent scum. But my point (or really Dyslexicon's point, I think) was that Phil had him as his top scum read, and hehadjust come in and killed a town member in a way that got him immediately lynched. If he was scum, as Phil thought, I don't think it is unreasonable to think he was foolish scum.
2. To my mind this is called 'having other reads and being open about them' which I take as pro-town. He's not approaching it as if he thinks wgeurts is town, he's approaching ti with an awareness that he might be and is thus paying attention to the wagon. It also makes sense in how he's suspecting wgeurts, who he is citing for being scummy in how Cheetory was lynched, and now he's noting potential suspicion if wgeurts was town. I can see your point, but see no real evidence for it. I think this is a gut read as it can be read either way.
Thinking about this, I guess it is more gut-read than I initially thought it was. It does feel to me as if heknewwgeurts were town, but I'm not sure I can prove that.-
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So there was nothing other than this?
In post 299, Thor665 wrote:
In short - I am saying that you're extroverting fake scumhunting commentary to try to cover for doing nothing, and am calling you scum because of it.
I already went into detail on why I thought it was better commentary than you thought it was. The way you have been so dismissive about it, and so strong on it, I thought there must be something more.-
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In post 580, droog wrote:i like my vote on the yyr slot
dys is not high priority yet
could see myself on philamon
probably need to reerad
I've now (this post) posted twice as much as YYR, taken more actual stances on things, had more interactions with people. At what point can we vote for me? I demand that if you do decide to lynch me, you talk about me before I die.
I'm rereading Blair and it's making me want to kill both her AND Thor, but I'm not sure how much of that sentiment relates to their allignments.-
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I'm not asking you to talk more about me, I was making a joke/complaint/jokey-complaint about how you keep calling me "The YYR-slot" rather than just "Fink".
I wasn't asking you to postpone my death either, I was saying I think I've talked enough at this point to count as a person who is in this game. Before I die, say my name.
Why is that worrying?-
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@Shaddowez: What do you mean by not liking that I "didn't even mention my slot"? I'm not sure what you're saying.
When you say you already didn't like things about Dyslexicon's posts and this was just another point on the scuminess scale, we're talking post 78. What were all the things you disliked about her before that point?-
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You can read YYR's ISO in about 20 seconds. I didn't just jump in and start providing my own reads because I wasn't wanting to deal with how he interacted with people, I jumped in, started reading the thread and providing my own reads because there wasn't anything to go on. And frankly, I'm still trying to figure out what that question to Cheetory was about.
Honestly, I find my own reads much more worth discussing than YYR doing one weird thing and then posting "I'll catch up tomorrow, I swear" a few times.-
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In post 592, shaddowez wrote:
I'm sorry, I had misunderstood your second part of that line of questioning. Yes, at that point in time it was just something that pinged me, so I pointed it out. Had Dys never asked me about it, there's a good chance I would have forgotten about it/ignored it except for when doing ISO reads. I'll often call out lines from people that I don't like, even if I have them as strong town reads. It gives me something to look at again later, as well as bringing it to other people's attention to do with what they will.
Okay, I guess I can buy that (although count that as a "ping" for you on my readings).-
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So Dyslexicon recently pointed out that Blair agreeing with Thor that she (Blair) would look like scum for her defense of Dys, were Dys to flip scum was kind of weird on both Thor and Blair's parts because Blair hasn't actually done much to defend Dyslexicon (and extra suspicious on Blair since she's been usually arguing with all the weird crap Thor says.) So I went back and looked at Blair's defending, I've copied all the quotes into the spoiler below so we can all look at this in one place.
Spoiler: Blair's Defense of Dyslexicon
I find myself agreeing with Dys (and Thor?!) about this being weird. She does an awful lot of calling Dys scummy for being her big defender. Weirder than I initially thought, because it isn't just the agreeing with Thor all of a sudden, it's the admitting to being something she really hasn't been (a strong defender of Dyslexicon). I don't think that's a particularly strong defense of Dys here. I'm not sure what to make of it, so talk this through with me guys. Please add to this. What are her motivations for agreeing with Thor.
If Blair is scum and Thor is scum: Why would they ever do this? No one is pressuring them to get into a situation like this, I find it pretty unlikely. Does anyone have a good reason for the Blair-Thor scumteam to act this way? I think someone proposed this as a both-or-neither (acryon?).
: She's annoyed with Thor (although doesn't sound nearly as much like it here as earlier) and going along because she's pretty confident in her Dys town-read. Except none of her earlier posts really make her seem confident in her Dys town-read, other than some feelings off this last thing. I believe a town read, but it doesn't seem all that strong. Would Blair agree to this on a mild town read? Does she think no one would hold her to it? My guess is on that last, I know I wouldn't vote for someone because Thor made this deal.
If Blair is town
Regardless of how confident she is, why would she act like she'd been a big defender of Dys? That's the real scummy thing here actually, more than the "promise."
If Blair is scum and Thor is town: We come to the question of why, in the event of a Blair/Dyslexicon scumteam (as Thor would believe in if Dys is scum) Why would Blair agree to what seems a huge overstatement of how much she has defended Dys. Is being the first to vote for Phil thatsure. I know I wouldn't think it is. I can see Scum Dys/Blair upuntilthis point, but if Blair really were scum, why not just call Thor ridiculous. It would hardly be the first time. Heck, I'd probably agree. I might have even voted Thor over it. But she would have reason to see herself as a defender of town-Dys because Dys hasn't been her mislynch target.
@Blair: Why did you agree with Thor that you were an obvious lynch candidate if Dys is scum. Not agreeing that you look scummy, that I get, but why are you so obvious that you'd be lynched? Do you think I'd be stupid not to vote for you if Dys flips scum?
@Thor: Do you think this makes Dys more likely to be town?
While I'm still totally okay with a Phil lynch, I'm going to VOTE: Blair now and see where this goes.-
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Note to Thor: I went into the big thing I just posted hours ago (when I made the comment about you two driving me crazy.) I wasn't being lazy, I was just taking forever because I went into the Blair re-read basically thinking I was going to come out of it voting for you, started a big bunch of quotes trying to make a ase against you and defend Blair, and as I went on, I just didn't believe that anymore.
It's really obnoxious how you keep jumping at every chance to call all of us lazy or claim that we haven't read things. That's the second time you've told me I was being lazy (and the first time you also said I was lying about it). It really doesn't help anyone, either from a moral point of view, or a productive posts point of view. STOP.-
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Fink Goon
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I didn't say I wasn't reading you, I said Iwasreading you and it was annoying me. It was a comment I made while doing it. And I only said it because I'd said that whole argument was anti-town because it made it painful to read previously, and I was reaffirming the same opinion double on my second time through that mess.
I don't think I've been lazy. I've been in this game ~36 hours now, I've done more that some who have been in it since the beginning.
It wasn't an excuse, and this is bugging me to the point where I really hope you're scum, because if you're town I don't think I want to play with you again. And at the moment I think you're probably town (to my disappointment), so... yeah.
I'm off for the night.-
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Fink Goon
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Wow, I thought I was checking this late and would come back to like a page or two of new stuff. Where is everyone?
Blair: As I said earlier in the same post, I wouldn't vote for you if Dys flipped mafia. Honestly explaining why you think you look scummy in a way that makes sense would make me take my vote off you. I mean I see that you would arouse some suspicion, but you seemed to really be agreeing with what looked like crazytalk from Thor to me. And you'd previous gone overboard in the other direction on calling him out for such things.
The motive I have for asking you to elaborate is that what you're doing doesn't make much sense to me, and I want to understand your thought process. I'm voting for you because I am serious about this, and votes speak louder than words.
The one motive that makes the most sense to me is that you essentially agreed with Thor because he didn't seem as crazy-pants to you as he did to me: because you feel like youhavebeen going after Phil unfairly: since you know both he and Dys are town or something. Since Dys is one of my stronger town reads, and Phil is one of my stronger scum reads (reevaluating this depending on how you play out), your "double standard" didn't seem at all crazy to me, it seemed logical. I wouldn't have agreed with Thor, and based on your behavior earlier in the thread, I'm surprised you did. My best thought for why you would do that is that you have more information than I do (i.e. are scum). I'm open to other reasoning.
@ Everyone else (although Dys, Thor, Blair already spoke up): What do you think about Blair?-
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Another reason I ended up voting for Blair instead of Thor is that when I made my big list of Blair quotes on the previous page, it stood out to me that she kept undercutting Dys while seeming to defend her. Maybe it was just a weak defense of a weak read, but it seems more likely to me at the moment that it's a good way to support a mislynch without being one of the early people driving that mislynch.
Thoughts?-
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I really hope that's not all.
It would be nice if only a few people would avoid commenting on recent stuff, so it could be narrowed down. There are only two scum, but everyone except Thor (and kindof-sortof Shaddowez) seem to be holding off on commenting on recent stuff, as if hoping Thor and/or I will get bored and move on, leaving the lack of commentary uncommented upon. That seems like scum behavior. But I know we don't have twice as many scum as town. Let's get some town opinions on this! Speak up people!-
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Aside from the seeming foreknowledge of wgeurts' flip, here is something else about Phil:
I find it hard to believe that there is nothing worth discussing. I've had a little tiff with Thor again, I've got on the Blair Wagon suggested by Dys, first voted on by Thor (without any clear reason), then I kept pushing Blair and pointed out the trend of backhandedly calling Dys scumming while half-defending Dys. I've been Phil's #1 scum read since apparently page 1 or whatever when YYR voted Cheetory. If I'm his top scum read, why doesn't he haveanythingto say about any of that? Am I more scummy, am I less scummy? Apparently everything is unchanged.
He doesn't understand the case against him, or has chosen to forget it. He's happy to keep his vote on me based off, as far as I can tell, a semi/transitioning-out-of RVS vote on Cheetory. He is willing to move to Thor's previous wagon without seeming to have anything to add despite apparently reading Dys' ISO recently. Surely there must be something he can comment on in there? He's coasting through this game trying to give as little interaction as possible, seeming to agree with whatever weaksauce cases people throw out without adding anything.
Phil is not doing any useful scumhunting. I don't know what specific thing that looks like (still) but I know Phil isn't doing it. His play doesn't make sense for town trying to catch up and find scum. It makes perfect sense for scum wanting to find some town-on-town cases to coast on, without seeming to add enough to implicate himself if they flip town. He's very carefully voting for wagons that look like they could be starting to take off while making as few waves as possible, as scum would do to encourage the mislynch without really being tied to it.
VOTE: Phil-
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Fink Goon
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He's been setting up his suspicion of Dys for several days, without much to actually show for it. I'm thinking he's afraid to look waffly. It fits with the pattern of holding onto those first reads and not changing much in the face of events/evidence/discussion. I think, if he's scum, the way he's playing scum he'd be worried that that would be too obvious. He's been setting up these other vague votes well before doing them.
Phil's a stronger scumread for me than Blair. If only one or the other wagon will take off, I wanted to put my weight on the Phil one. But no, I'm not blown away by Blair's response. Count me as wanting to vote for both, but alas having only one vote. Given that there are only the two of us on the Blair wagon, with Dys as a reluctant, eventual third vote, and 3 of us on the Phil wagon without any imput from most of the town, I'm trying to consolidate.
But if someone else gets on Blair with you, I'll come on over. I'm with you about wanting to get some real wagons going before the deadline. Enough that people have options that might reveal something later. Just Phil seems equally as likely to take off as Blair right now, and he's a stronger read for me. Count me as on the Blair wagon in spirit (and in person if it has any momentum after your call to arms.)
If anyone is thinking "well, I'd vote for Blair, but it's just Thor", it isn't just Thor. And I'll move my vote back there if it looks like it has legs. But also, vote Phil.-
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You two would make for a good sitcom married couple.
I actually understand Thor's position, I just strongly support the Phil wagon. If I were Thor I'd be a bit frustrated with me too. But I'd rather Phil take off than Blair.
You know what would be really nice? Acryon, Droog, Shaddowez, and a hypothetical Bins replacement getting some actual opinions about this. Also, I'd like a pony.-
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@Acyron
Hey Acyron! You want a reason to vote someone besides Thor? If Thor were scum, do you think he'd let his partner be this useless (whoever they are)?
I'm not saying I'd never vote Thor on some future day, given some more evidence of something clever happenning. But if Thor is scum, it seems like his partner is dead weight. And he has daychat to yell at themconstantly.-
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Acyron seems absolutely locked onto you, not really entertaining other options. No it isn't much of a defense of you, honestly you're not that strong of a town read for me, but I think it's a good reason not to vote for you at the moment. That, and your wagon not going anywhere.
My point on Phil isn't that he's jumping at every oppurtunity; it's that he's taking oppurtunities for very little reason, trying to provide minimal ties from himself to his votes. At the same time, I think he's being very cautious (overly so) and not wanting to change his mind or his vote too much. I don't see an inconsistency there.-
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Fink Goon
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In post 655, Thor665 wrote:In post 653, Fink wrote:My point on Phil isn't that he's jumping at every oppurtunity; it's that he's taking oppurtunities for very little reason, trying to provide minimal ties from himself to his votes. At the same time, I think he's being very cautious (overly so) and not wanting to change his mind or his vote too much. I don't see an inconsistency there.
Maybe, but he was literally in a situation where he was in a three way tie that included himself, and was offered and provided the perfect excuse to put a 'not Phil' wagon into a strong lead without having to accept any blame.
Why would he do that if scum considering your theory of why he is scum?
Again, I think he'd do that because he's worried about looking inconsistent. And his comment telling you that he could be convinced to vote Dys (as if you're the one doing the convincing) seems out of touch with your more recent posting, so town or scum I read that as him thinking you're still up for voting Dys.
Which means, in his mind, it's 2 on Blair (you and me), 3 on him (Blair, Dys, and me), 2 on Dys (you and Shaddowez) and 2 on me (him and Droog, who recently said he needed to catch up and reconsider his reads, which could be implying a change of vote.) Give that that puts him as the leading wagon, and he's feeling presure to move his vote, it would be a tie between Blair and Dys. He's been setting up voting for Dys for quite a while, he's worried about looking inconsistent, and if he thinks you are potentially on board with a Dys lynch (which he seems to have believed when he posted that), it makes perfect sense to vote Dys.-
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Also, isn't it suspicious (under this same theory) that he seems to be holding off on voting until he sees what Droog is going to do? Like he wants to vote Dys, but he's not committing to it until he seems Droog either abandon his vote for me or double down on it with more of a case. Phil isn'tmakingsuch case, but he's not unvoting for me yet, as if he doesn't want to have to look convinced to move his votebackto me, should I become a thing, he's waiting to take his vote off to see what Droog does.-
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In post 667, DCLXVI wrote:@mod,with the exception of myself, thor and droog... no one has posted in the last 24 hours... Can we get a mass prod? Thanks.
I've been kind of waiting for you to finish catching up and hear your thoughts and/or some input from the others. I've been worried Thor and I were more-or-less dominating the thread and I want to pull some actual reactions from the others rather than letting this just move on uncommented upon and forgotten because it's 4 pages in the past or something.
ANd I think the prod deadline is 48 hours, which is only being violated by V/LA acryon right now.-
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@acryon
1. We only have 5 days left, do you really think it likely a Thor wagon is going to start and get to 5 votes in that number of days?
2. How close to the deadline do we have to be for you to compromise on your top scumread? At what point do you think refusing to move hurts town's ability to make a reasoned decision?
3. What do you think of the wagon on you?
4. Why doyouthink Phil looks scummy-leaning?-
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In post 727, acryon wrote:Also, regarding hurting town's ability to make a reasoned decision, I feel like Thor deciding for people what they are doing is a good example of that.
I don't know, Thor's comment that the two most likely lynch candidates end up voting for each other seems perfectly reasonable to me.Why do you think that comment is scummy, rather than just aggressive/presumptious?
In post 722, Thor665 wrote:
If you want to affect the wagon you need to be talking to the people voting it, not the obv. votes that aren't placed yet.
I'm not terribly interested in defending Acryon, I think he's a perfectly reasonable lynch candidate. If anything, I'm hammer-curious myself. But his very reasonableness as a lynch candidate without any realthingdefining that, and the speed with which his wagon took off are what worry me, and I think it's worth questioning him before he dies. I don't see why that's surprising at all. And getting his vote actually onto Phil would give others (you/Droog/adorable kitty roman numeral guy) some more leverage to also queston Phil. I think it's self-evident that talking to Acyron is the best use of my time right now.
In post 724, acryon wrote:
1. I think it is non-impossible, but quite unlikely that a Thor wagon could gain momentum, but I do think it is worth keeping my vote to send the message that I am serious about thinking he is scum, and I don't want to let him off the hook.
That message is obvious. Why is that more important to you than applying pressure to pressurable people? What do you think voting for Thor is actually accomplishing if you die when Phil comes back?
2. I don't see how abstaining from voting for someone else hurts the town's ability to make a reasoned decision. If my vote were to go anywhere, it would go to Dys or Phil, but as I've implied, I'm less convinced that they are scum than I am of Thor as scum. I think keeping my vote on Thor benefits town more than switching to one of those others, for the reasons I answered in 1.
Your vote isn't applying any pressure to anyone. Thor is not shaking in his boots with fear that he's getting lynched today. If you always abstain until the last possible minute, it makes town react based on urgency rather than talking it through. Thoughts?
And while you're at it, why are you still talking about voting for Dys? What in the last few pages makes you think a vote there is going to do any good?
3. If people honestly don't see what I see, then the wagon makes sense I guess. They are wrong, and I certainly think there are better options for lynches to reveal information(Dys and Phil both fit that I think).
Who's the scummiest person on your wagon besides Thor?
If Phi flips scum, who is your top suspect?
If Phil flips town, who is your top suspect?-
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In post 729, Fink wrote:
If Phi flips scum, who is your top suspect?
If Phil flips town, who is your top suspect?
@ Acryon
To clarify, tell me what you think we would learn in either of those hypothetical flip situations. Don't just say Thor and Thor. Look away from the tunnel for a moment please.-
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In post 297, Phillammon wrote:my reasoning is, the more posts you make, the more likely you are to make a scumslip
@ DCLXVI, Droog, Acryon, Shaddowz, Thor
So what do you guys think of this earlier comment given Phil's recent play? It seems suspicious to me that he's playing with so little commentary, especially now that he's suspected. He seems to be minimizing his responses, or is this just in my imagination? He still hasn't moved his vote OR explained his vote on me. I think it all fits with my over-cautious scum explaination, given that he agrees that that is how scum should play?
@ Acryon: Don't you see how voting Phil to put him at L-1 could put more pressure on him here? It would give the others the ability to demand some real answers out of him. If you're going to keep voting Thor, how about you at least make a case on him, other than the not-taking-his-vote-off-wyguerts thing, which no one but you thinks is suspicious.-
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So in my opinion Shaddowez had by far the scummiest jump onto the Acryon wagon. DCLXVI came into the game, read it, and placed a vote on a non-existant wagon that turned out to be pretty damn viable, that doesn't seem scummy to me at all. Thor has been jumping at the bit to get a lynchable wagon going (something I don't actually read as scummy coming from him right now) and has never had much read on Acryon. I have 0 difficulty believing Thor would see Acryon as a viable lynch candidate and a perfectly reasonable compromise. Droog had been catching up on the last several days and saying for a while he needed to reevaluate things, when he came back, he moved his vote based on the other two responses and preferring Acryon to Phil I think. Shaddowez just kind of came and tagged on to a rapidly rising wagon to put it into lynch range.
IMO Scummiest-> Towniest looking only at how votes were placed on the Acryon-wagon is Shaddowez > Droog > Thor > DCLXVI
I'm really surprised Acryon isn't looking at this sort of thingat alland it certainly brings me closer to wanting to hammer him. Especially given that Acryon had Shaddowez as only a lean town before, while DCLXVI was a straight up town read. Acryon seems completely disinterested in explaining this, he seems to have 0 interest in scumhunting, just in pushing his one target.
Also, Acryon, don't say it's "mathematically wrong" when you obviously aren't doing any math.
Spoiler: math example using numbers pulled out of my ass, because I'm annoyed at the phrase "mathematically wrong"
Okay, so that math example was probably pointless, but GRRRRRRRR-
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In post 749, acryon wrote: it is as simple as I think Thor has a 90% chance of being scum, which is greater than Dys/Phil who have, let's say 40% chance.
There are 2 scum out of 8 other people in the game at the moment. Everyone has a 25% chance of being scum if you vote at random. 75% is overconfident. 90% is SERIOUSLY overconfident. Your case on Thor is weak. How the hell do you have a 90% certainty that he's scum based on Day 2? I don't see how anyone could be 90% certain ofanyoneright now. And my math was really basing thingsin your favor, I went with the assumption that Phil was 20% scum. I (and presumably you) think it's actually significantly higher than that.
You're pretending to have done analysis you obviously haven't done.
In post 749, acryon wrote:
Shadowz may have had the scummiest jump on my wagon, but I don't think, overall, that his slot is more scummy than DCLXVI. There is more to it than just why each of them is on my wagon.
And it would be lovely if you'd share these things with us, especially as your respective reads on DCLXVI and Shaddowez changed seemingly based on nothing. And I really think, if you believe you're town (which you obviosuly do or say you do regardless), you should be puttingsome serious weight as to why people jump onto wagons aiming to lynch townies. It's weird that you don't. It'ssuspiciousthat you don't care about this.-
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@ Acryon
But you haven't explained thet non-nothing reason for your reads changing at all. You are dangling at the end of a rope here, you should probably do so.
And also, you fail math. Whether or not that makes you townie or scummy, how about you lay off saying things mathematically don't make sense.-
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Given droog's logic about who is useful in the end makes sense, I'm okay with this. I want to give it some more time to talk/allow people to make a good point against this, but I'm okay with it. Even if Acryon isn't scum, he's not town that I would trust to make any important decision. He's just going to vote for Thor for the rest of the game. And I think his responses today have not exactly been town-leaning. I actually think a Phil/Acryon scumteam isn't that unreasonable.
Given how I was just explaining the utility of voting lesser-but-possible scum reads, and given that we could use some more information to hunt on:
Intent to hammer Acryon
I'll wait a couple hours at least, and longer if people not named Acryon want me to.-
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No one has really summed it up in one place. Even though I think he's a lesser scum read than Phil by a reasonable amount, I think he's got a higher than average (i.e. better than 25%) chance of being scum and so I think it's a reasonable lynch. He's also going to be completely useless even if he is town.
I guess I'll write up a summary of the main points against him for you, hold on a minute. (Assuming you don't mind a case from the least commited voter on the wagon.)-
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@ Droog: huh?
I asked Acryon a fuckton of questions NOT about theory. He answered them in ways that came across as scummy, and showed he had 0 interest in scumhunting. I'm still not sold on him being scum, but as I said, I think he's better than 25% right now, and I'm of the opinion that that should be the cutoff. Also, I spoilered the math crap for a reason. Why are you keen to throw out the non-math questions as talking theory?-
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@ Blair
The case on Acryon as I see it
Acryon has 0 interest in scumhunting.
He doesn't see any point in looking at his wagon and the way people got on it for scum influence. He doesn't want to ever vote for anyone besides Thor, even to help pressure people like active-lurking Phil to talk to us. He doesn't have any non-Thor related opinions. At no point has he attempted to make any more of an argument on why we should be voting for Thor, he's just happy to park his vote there. He knows naked reads don't help much, as he said so in url=http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 3#p6248583]post 136[/url].
His main reason for us not to vote for him is that we'd get more information out of a Phil or Dys lynch, but then he doesn't have any idea of what we'd get from that other than process of elimination.
Acryon has reads with no reasoning behind them.
We all know about the dumb Thor case he's been pushing over and over.
His reads on Shaddowez and XLVXI-whatever-it-is swapped when I asked him about who he suspected on his wagon. He hasn't given any reasoning for this. He never gave any reasoning for them to begin with, but he also is choosing not to explain now. It looks like there neverwasa reason for them.
It's not much, but I think having what look like made-up nonsense reads, when he has previously said that's useless, and him having 0 interest in looking for scum seem suspicious enough to put him above random-voting. And on top of that, even if he's town, he's shown he has no interest in being useful.
Like I said, I'm the weakest vote on him, but I think those are worthwhile, especially seeing as we can't get him or anyone else to vote Phil at the moment apparently.