8:4 Vanilla Nightless [TM2015] - GAME OVER

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Post Post #275 (ISO) » Wed Apr 01, 2015 5:03 am

Post by Hoopla »

my first action in this town as cement is to announce that this game hinges on the success of our first two lynches. this is a poorly designed setup where the better you start doing as town, the more you are rewarded for it (a successful lynch of scum not only gives us more information, but also an additional mislynch), and the worse you are doing as town, the harder it is (ie; it is virtually impossible to win this game in a 4:5 lylo as it requires every townie to be right and willing to follow a lylo voting structure. 4:6 is also really hard).

people always expect creative bussing as scum in this setup, but their optimal play is to try and get to 4:6 and just ram home the last two mislynches with brute force. i don't know if i should be announcing whether that is scum's optimal play, but they
probably
know this already, so we should play in the way optimal to scum's optimal strategy -- and that requires discussing it. with this playerlist, i see a lot of 1v1 page-clogging and people vying for town leadership (we already have talks of town blocs). this worries me because the fallout of these fights always serve as a catalyst for people to just vote whoever else, and if we're close to deadline at all, we will scramble and people like greyice and ABR will try and bully the town into their decision. We need to aim for the D1 lynch to occur a couple days out from deadline to be safe. And we also need to talk about alternate voting schemes for 4:5 and 4:6 days, because we can't win it normally (the town has to essentially nail the whole team). The importance of the D1 and D2 lynch is critical to our success -- so lets try and work together.
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Post Post #276 (ISO) » Wed Apr 01, 2015 5:05 am

Post by GreyICE »

Yeah, I'm fine with that, because I know why. Come on here, this ain't either of our first rodeos, and I actually have a track record of figuring out your logic, even if I got lynched for it (for some truly terrible play as well, to be fair) in the first team mafia.

But if our house lands on someone who isn't the wicked witch, it may be a very nice house, but it's not very effective. You really sure Silver is the choice of the day? Because let me tell you, I am not.
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Post Post #277 (ISO) » Wed Apr 01, 2015 5:05 am

Post by GreyICE »

Oh god don't TELL them optimal play.
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Post Post #278 (ISO) » Wed Apr 01, 2015 5:07 am

Post by Hoopla »

following on from the previous post: if abr or greyice are scum, they can create enough noise and use the scum voting bloc to win the game -- to the point, where i'm effectively willing to gamble on their alignment being town and hope we can channel our energy together as a unit.
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Post Post #279 (ISO) » Wed Apr 01, 2015 5:07 am

Post by GreyICE »

Also I consider this game lost if it hits 6:4 or 5:4 with 90% certainty. My goal here is a day 1 scum lynch, with day 2 as backup (6 of 7 is slightly easier than 7 of 8).

That's why I need decent wagons, not this half baked "lets lynch silverwolf" bullshit.
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Post Post #280 (ISO) » Wed Apr 01, 2015 5:09 am

Post by Hoopla »

In post 277, GreyICE wrote:Oh god don't TELL them optimal play.


you're underestimating the collective knowledge of the scumteam. four people in this team and then a crew of teammates with eyes on the game. scum already know how to play optimally.
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Post Post #281 (ISO) » Wed Apr 01, 2015 5:10 am

Post by Hoopla »

In post 276, GreyICE wrote:But if our house lands on someone who isn't the wicked witch, it may be a very nice house, but it's not very effective. You really sure Silver is the choice of the day? Because let me tell you, I am not.


i haven't figured out my vote yet. just wanted to be on a wagon while i get going.
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Post Post #282 (ISO) » Wed Apr 01, 2015 5:21 am

Post by ZZZX »

In post 267, Metal Sonic wrote:you mean you havent asked him yet????????

he was on site chat like half an hour ago

town points on you dropped a little bit.....

I understood what he ment. I doubted you will get what he meant. so i wanted him to explain it on yo level (as indicated frm my post)

also its about his posts and stance "(his paranoia on ABR and approach on him is genuine is that's really enough to put him as strong townread.)" as the tldr version
Implosion: I see ZZZX was
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The Bulge: ZZZX is ZZZX
Get to know a ZZZX: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=61&t=58733
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Post Post #283 (ISO) » Wed Apr 01, 2015 5:21 am

Post by GreyICE »

In post 280, Hoopla wrote:
In post 277, GreyICE wrote:Oh god don't TELL them optimal play.


you're underestimating the collective knowledge of the scumteam. four people in this team and then a crew of teammates with eyes on the game. scum already know how to play optimally.

But not from a graphic discussion. You can have all the discussions you want in your little caves, but when it becomes gestalt wisdom then it's much easier to internalize. People still panic and follow the flow, I've watched scum bus when they actually had equal numbers to the town because of the force of panic.

Regardless, is what is. I'd have preferred to find scum and THEN trust in my ability to direct the house, but here we are. Terms have changed. We can play by your rules. Although I still like my vote.
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Post Post #284 (ISO) » Wed Apr 01, 2015 5:23 am

Post by ZZZX »

In post 273, GreyICE wrote:Sotty wagon is all town, Kagami/Silver wagon is all town, MS wagon is... okay, why is that actually still a fucking thing? Remove my wgeurts town read, that wagon is a dumpster fire.

Do you believe someone alignment is different because his voting was not what you agree on?? I find that mostly a town point as scum doesnt like to stand out on those kind of stuff.
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The Bulge: ZZZX is ZZZX
Get to know a ZZZX: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=61&t=58733
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Post Post #285 (ISO) » Wed Apr 01, 2015 5:34 am

Post by GreyICE »

In post 284, ZZZX wrote:
In post 273, GreyICE wrote:Sotty wagon is all town, Kagami/Silver wagon is all town, MS wagon is... okay, why is that actually still a fucking thing? Remove my wgeurts town read, that wagon is a dumpster fire.

Do you believe someone alignment is different because his voting was not what you agree on?? I find that mostly a town point as scum doesnt like to stand out on those kind of stuff.

It's not about "disagreeing" it's about how they're voting.

For instance, Silver is a wagon I don't agree with, but the people on it are town. Look at their reasoning.

Look at the votes on MS please:
In post 37, Empire wrote:
Vote: Metal Sonic


In post 18, Metal Sonic wrote:i looked at this playerlist and i decided to not put any tokens lol

Playerlists were revealed after token submissions and alignments were assigned. So how did you come to assign your tokens after the fact?

(Nacho, you better be town here and make this way easier for me.)

In post 61, Seraphim wrote:I'm here.

Vote: Metal Sonic


If I can make this happen, it will save me me so many headaches.

In post 139, wgeurts wrote:This bugged me so much I've decided to respond to it:
MetalSonic wrote:1. GreyICE and ABR performed exactly the same actions, apart from voting different people and having a different name. Why exactly did wgeurts phrase his post in such a manner: "We're in a nightless and all info is relevant, hiding it is anti-town. I'm going to vote you until you say it was a joke or explain why it's serious." a general sweeping statement "all info is relevant" while not addressing the personal aspects of why he voted ABR.
If you didn't pick this up from the posts I made I'll explain this again:
I don't know ICE however I've played 4+ games with ABR as scum and town. We've had a tendancy to clash in nearly all of these games which led eventually to the mis-lynch of him or me. I wanted to avoid this again so I decided to provoke him into playing out of his usual style. I'm hoping that doing so will lead to play that will reveal his alignment clearly to me. It was a reaction test you can say and two: GreyICE seemed to be making a joke, knowing ABR I however wasn't sure. If you read I also stated it was fine if he just explained it was joke RVS reasoning. In a nightless all info counts, I'm also wanting an explanation for Nacho's vote.

...

Now:
VOTE: MetalSonic
I do believe I also stated to ZZZX scum would pounce on the stuff you've pounced on as a sort of slayers gambit. You've attempted to falsely frame me, as expected from scum.



That's a fucking dumpster fire, ZZZX. Like, actual fucking dumpster fire.
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Post Post #286 (ISO) » Wed Apr 01, 2015 5:36 am

Post by ZZZX »

i just felt wge vs metal was full of paranoai. but i see your point... I am not sure tbh.
Implosion: I see ZZZX was
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Post Post #287 (ISO) » Wed Apr 01, 2015 5:38 am

Post by Hoopla »

In post 279, GreyICE wrote:Also I consider this game lost if it hits 6:4 or 5:4 with 90% certainty. My goal here is a day 1 scum lynch, with day 2 as backup (6 of 7 is slightly easier than 7 of 8).


I agree with this. I haven't thought much about the right way to play those days to give us something better than a 10% chance, but off the top of my head: if the D1 and D2 lynch are town, the D2 lynchee chooses the lynch for D3 (or picks their towniest player and they pick during D3 and everyone sheeps). The scum-bloc is too powerful on these days. An honest gamble from a lynched townie is better than playing the setup normally and letting scum manipulate D3 and D4.
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Post Post #288 (ISO) » Wed Apr 01, 2015 5:45 am

Post by GreyICE »

Essentially turn the game into a vengeful? I'm down with that. It's got to be better than trying to put together an all-town wagon.

Fine, if there's 3 or more scum alive and we need every single townie on a wagon to get a scum lynch, I will vote for whoever the last lynched player said, no matter how stupid I believe it is, unless it involves self-voting in LyLo.

Lets just not go there though.
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Post Post #289 (ISO) » Wed Apr 01, 2015 6:01 am

Post by Hoopla »

In post 288, GreyICE wrote:Essentially turn the game into a vengeful? I'm down with that. It's got to be better than trying to put together an all-town wagon.


The skillset of all townies required to orchestrate a lynch against scum playing optimally on D3/4 is just way too unrealistic for them to all have. Turning it into a vengeful after D2 is surely better odds, because there is guaranteed no scum manipulation. We're gonna sacrifice accuracy compared to a good scumhunter's choices, but there is too high a chance that they're scum to blind trust a good player. Let the guaranteed innocent person choose, even if it seems stupid.
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Post Post #290 (ISO) » Wed Apr 01, 2015 6:03 am

Post by Hoopla »

As an aside, this setup feels pretty broken-ish if it's better for town to play it this way. Naughty zor for picking it. And naughty gammagooey for putting me here.
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Post Post #291 (ISO) » Wed Apr 01, 2015 6:13 am

Post by GreyICE »

In post 289, Hoopla wrote:
In post 288, GreyICE wrote:Essentially turn the game into a vengeful? I'm down with that. It's got to be better than trying to put together an all-town wagon.


The skillset of all townies required to orchestrate a lynch against scum playing optimally on D3/4 is just way too unrealistic for them to all have. Turning it into a vengeful after D2 is surely better odds, because there is guaranteed no scum manipulation. We're gonna sacrifice accuracy compared to a good scumhunter's choices, but there is too high a chance that they're scum to blind trust a good player. Let the guaranteed innocent person choose, even if it seems stupid.

That actually was me seriously agreeing with you. If we whiff on day 1 AND day 2 then it'll be impossible for day 3/4 to be scum lynches without a plan like this.

Of course my real plan is not to whiff on day 1+2, but as a backup, I like your plan.
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Post Post #292 (ISO) » Wed Apr 01, 2015 7:02 am

Post by wgeurts »

Instead of doing this sentence by sentence I'm going to explain why each section of MS's posts on me is false and scum.
Spoiler: The Shred
In post 87, wgeurts wrote:
In post 82, ZZZX wrote:
In post 4, GreyICE wrote:
vote : sotty7


Serious vote.

@wegurts why did u ignore this post when its the same?

As I don't know GreyICE and it looked like one of those fake sarcastic funny RV reasons.
ABR on the otherhand is someone I've played quite a few games with, so I wasn't sure wether he was also joking.
Hence I asked him, I also said that him just saying it was a joke would be ok.
To be truthful I was hoping somebody would pounce on what you pointed out and push me, I was hoping on a reaction test but hey.

I'm also very weary of mis-lynching ABR.


This is a poor explanation. Apart from the fact that arguing from a meta perspective is poor, wgeurts fails to justify the following aspects of his action:[/quote]It begins.

1. GreyICE and ABR performed exactly the same actions, apart from voting different people and having a different name. Why exactly did wgeurts phrase his post in such a manner: "We're in a nightless and all info is relevant, hiding it is anti-town. I'm going to vote you until you say it was a joke or explain why it's serious." a general sweeping statement "all info is relevant" while not addressing the personal aspects of why he voted ABR.
Here he's already started to misrep me. He says the ICE and ABR did the same, that's true, however he then goes on to attack my vote in the first place. I see two faults in his reasoning here:
  1. He attacks my vote using the reasoning in the post which I voted him. The odd thing is that he's reacting to a post where I explain why I truly voted ABR and he doesn't even bother explaining why that reasoning is false; he just goes back to the post I voted him, attacks that and ignores my later explanation for it. This is one of the reasons I think he's scum; he's seen an opportunity to push town and he's jumped back
    to a vote he didn't question too much
    and suddenly starts a case on it. He fully ignores my later reasoning for that vote. The way the read forms seems forced
  2. He says I should of explained my reaction test before as I did it, negating the whole point of the reaction test. It's another forced reason to scum read me.


2. wgeurts is hypocritical when he mentioned "I'm going to vote you until you say it was a joke or explain why it's serious." Apart from voteparking being an extremely scummy action, the fact that he calls out ABR for being "anti-town." reflects his shallow attempts at scumhunting. This is the second time that I have observed wgeurts perform shallow scumhunting.
Who disagrees here that not explaining votes is anti-town? He's once again attacking the original vote and ignoring all the explanations provided the posts afterwards. It's like he's decided I'm scum and has then made the reasons fit the theory I'm scum (bit like town conf-biasing their reads). He also never explains how I'm hypocritical.

In post 90, wgeurts wrote:ABR, I also know you are
very
aware of your own meta. ...


I find it appalling how wgeurts refers to ABR in such a manner. A quick information check shows that Wgeurts joined late 2014, while ABR has been here since 2007. In addition, Wgeurts has 1500+ posts, while ABR has 10 times that.For this reason, I strongly agree with ABR's point that wgeurts is being disrespectful, and in fact this translates into scumminess for wgeurts as he does not make an obvious attempt to determine ABR's alignment.
So me and ABR
actually being in quite a few games together
is now scummy. He's got his facts wrong, I've played with ABR and have a general idea of how he plays. He never actually went ahead and asked me which games I've played with him, he simply states that I can't know his play as I'm newish. It's also funny how it makes me scummier and not ABR who also made this "lie". The fact he's now only posting attacks on me also helps the "found someone to frame now building reasons to justify it" theory.

Additional, I find it shocking how it appears that wgeurts expects ABR to respond nicely, when wgeurts initiated an attack with rudeness and obvious hypocrisy, as shown above.
Lies, unless he claims to read minds he can't know this (it also isn't true). Nowhere did I state that I was expecting a "nice" response. He by now he was fully fitting my expectation of scum jumping on me for the posts he's attacking (hilariously he's doing so after I stated I expected scum to do so.).


In post 99, wgeurts wrote:UNVOTE:
That's a genuine point.


I find it distressing how wgeurts unvotes shortly (less than 1 page) after the backlash and reversal by ABR. This shows a lack of conviction on wgeurts' part, in failure to pursue ABR in order to reach an intended result or signs of a definitive alignment. wgeurts' did not proclaim that "ABR is town, I am done with my testing" or words of a similar impact before his unvote, rather he unvoted due to ZZZX's "That's a genuine point.". It appears that nothing constructive was gained from wgeurts' antagonization of ABR, and this further highlights the superficiality of wgeurts' actions.
He's manipulating my intentions, I said I would unvote when he gave any reasoning and he did, so I unvoted. My goal had been reached, however MS seems to completely missed this goal which I explained in the posts before I unvoted. He's trying to find reasons to scum read me (and he's forgotten other players exist in the game, coincidentally).

In post 120, wgeurts wrote:@Empire
I don't know SilverWolf well enough to judge wether what ABR said is true. I said I would unvote after he gives a reason and he did so, so I unvoted.


In this post, wgeurts explains his unvote. Fair that he has obtained his intended result "A reason for a vote on Silverwolf", but what exactly is the rationale for wanting "only a reason"? Note that wgeurts makes no judgment on whether he is town or scumreading ABR at this point yet.
He says I'm scum reading ABR (even though I stated I didn't know what to read him and I was doing this to sort him) which is false and can't be backed up with any evidence. If he had actually looked at my posts and read them properly he would of known my goal from the start (I had explained it before) however he's only trying to find yet more *false* reasons to scum read me.

Fortunately, he clarifies it in here:
In post 123, wgeurts wrote:ABR my gut says is town.



Unfortunately, scum have daytalk (This is public information). If wgeurts is hypothetically scum, he would have had coaching from *possibly superior* teammates. Therefore, I feel that retroactively resolving logic does not net him as much town points as it would normally have.
Never scum read him in the first place, so this whole argument falls flat. *cough* strawman *cough*.

Oh, he also forgets to vote me. Almost like he's waiting to see if people ever actually start to wagon me before joining.

Now, next post.
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Post Post #293 (ISO) » Wed Apr 01, 2015 7:03 am

Post by Kagami »

Ok, so I've got the gist of it.

GI, what happened in ?
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Post Post #294 (ISO) » Wed Apr 01, 2015 7:08 am

Post by Seraphim »

Unvote
Vote: Kagami


My vote should be here, it didn't registered for whatever reason.
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Post Post #295 (ISO) » Wed Apr 01, 2015 7:09 am

Post by Seraphim »

I feel much more confident about MS-town though.
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Post Post #296 (ISO) » Wed Apr 01, 2015 7:20 am

Post by wgeurts »

Spoiler: shreddies
In post 142, Metal Sonic wrote:
In post 139, wgeurts wrote:I don't know ICE however I've played 4+ games with ABR as scum and town. We've had a tendancy to clash in nearly all of these games which led eventually to the mis-lynch of him or me. I wanted to avoid this again so I decided to provoke him into playing out of his usual style. I'm hoping that doing so will lead to play that will reveal his alignment clearly to me. It was a reaction test you can say and two: GreyICE seemed to be making a joke, knowing ABR I however wasn't sure. If you read I also stated it was fine if he just explained it was joke RVS reasoning. In a nightless all info counts, I'm also wanting an explanation for Nacho's vote.

If you want to avoid this again, there is an option for you to swap positions with a teammate. On the contrary, if you were scum, it would be highly beneficial for ABR to be mislynched, rather, you would stay in and proceed to renact the same actions in order to encourage an ABR lynch.


It seems ironic how you wish to "avoid a clash" with ABR, yet you "provoke" him and start a quarrel? How protown that would be. Your words don't match up with your actions.[/quote]I was not trying to avoid a clash (he can't back up this statement with proof, as it's a lie). I was trying to sort him as quickly as possible, so that a proper clash wouldn't happen. He's completely avoiding explaining why my responses are false (maybe because he can't refute them as I've got actual proof to back up my claims?) and has gone and thrown out some random *false* accusation.

In post 139, wgeurts wrote:Read above, didn't vote him because I though he was scum: I voted him as a reaction test because I want to sort him quickly without too much hassle. I also, dislike unexplained votes and yes they are anti-town (notice, not scummy, town do it as well as scum) IMO.


Yes, reaction test, reaction test.
Doesn't explain how it can't be a reaction test.

In post 139, wgeurts wrote:All explained above, also explained why I didn't do so for greyICE in an earlier post replying to ZZZX.


In order to prevent a "clash". I dunno, this is ABR and your domestic matter. As far as I am concerned, from an outside perspective you are performing actions that are contradictory to your intentions, which is a scummy action. Furthermore, in your interactions with other players, your scumhunting is shallow and superficial. Those are scummy as well. In all, you're scummy.
Now I'm contradicting my own intentions? He's using a strawman once again here. My intentions where to get ABR sorted and get an explanation for his vote. Where have I contradicted this?
He claims I'm just trying to avoid clashing with ABR, which is false. He fully made that up.
In post 139, wgeurts wrote:I do believe I also stated to ZZZX scum would pounce on the stuff you've pounced on as a sort of slayers gambit. You've attempted to falsely frame me, as expected from scum.


Slayer's Gambit.

Image

I enjoy how your read on me has taken a 180 degree turn after I have put just a little pressure on you. There's more where that came from; a read reversal in response to powerful attacks are usually indicative of scum defensiveness.
I said I would read him as town as others assured me this was his town play, I also said the second he posted content that showed otherwise I would change reads. It was obvious the town read on him was weak so this accusation is *gasp* also false. He completely ignored attacking my actually defence and tried to change the discussion away from something I was obviously correct in. He got caught, now he's trying to worm his way out.

(Still a lack of actually voting me)
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Post Post #297 (ISO) » Wed Apr 01, 2015 7:21 am

Post by wgeurts »

In post 295, Seraphim wrote:I feel much more confident about MS-town though.

Why?
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Post Post #298 (ISO) » Wed Apr 01, 2015 7:25 am

Post by EddieFenix »

In post 261, GreyICE wrote:
Eddie is either not reading what I'm saying or pretending not to. He's used that to ignore the rest of the game.



The assumption train just keeps on a chuggin. This is your 2nd post that tries to look town. Your post on Sotty reeks of attempted salesmanship. MS hit the nail on the head in commenting on it.

I came into the game with 2 reads to make sure to keep an eye on, MS and ZZZX. MS's wagon is so obviously bad that any idiot with half a brain could see this.

In post 258, GreyICE wrote:
In post 234, EddieFenix wrote:
In post 231, GreyICE wrote:You didn't bother to read past the first line of the post dude. That's just sad. That's just completely and utterly sad.

It's like bargain basement benmage.


I read that entire post, and you're assuming things. That's what's sad. Completely and utterly sad.

You read the entire post, and decided the most important thing was the question at the fronf, and that tokens were worth ignoring despite
hard evidence
they weren't?

What did you think of Sotty's inconsistencies? Anything? Do you have any thoughts at all on it? Because as far as I can tell all you're doing is revving a giant chainsaw.


I think Sotty's "inconsistencies," as you so put them, are under my microscope and I'm keeping a very keen eye on them as we move forward. If you're going to say I'm "chainsaw defending" them, you better bring a case to the table then that.

In post 289, Hoopla wrote:
In post 288, GreyICE wrote:Essentially turn the game into a vengeful? I'm down with that. It's got to be better than trying to put together an all-town wagon.


The skillset of all townies required to orchestrate a lynch against scum playing optimally on D3/4 is just way too unrealistic for them to all have. Turning it into a vengeful after D2 is surely better odds, because there is guaranteed no scum manipulation. We're gonna sacrifice accuracy compared to a good scumhunter's choices, but there is too high a chance that they're scum to blind trust a good player. Let the guaranteed innocent person choose, even if it seems stupid.


Let's focus on TODAY. We're not going to try and plan for something like this when there's plenty of time to discuss everything. Even then, there's no way in hell I'd follow along with this plan. No chance in hell.
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Post Post #299 (ISO) » Wed Apr 01, 2015 7:25 am

Post by wgeurts »

In post 153, Metal Sonic wrote:There is no Metal Sonic wagon, there is only 'wgeurts OMGUS'. He's caught scum who is trying his best to retaliate right now. I don't think he knows who he's up against.
Obviously an unjustified "OMGUS", he fails to refute any of my defenses and has now resorted to ignoring me and just saying I'm scum.
In post 269, Metal Sonic wrote:sadly, some people cant see the obvious

In post 255, quadz08 wrote:Metal Sonic (3) - Zar, Seraphim, wgeurts


thats why they need shepherds like us to guide them to the light



or, they could be scum.
Don't know why ser and zar are voting him, but they are on the right wagon.
"
i agree we should have a rule against wgeurts
" -
Davsto

"
let's have 2 rules against wgeurts
" -
DeathRowKitty

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