Newbie 1596: Exotic Birds (Game Over)

[Skold]

@Wyernite I may be wrong in saying this, but I think you mentioned a distaste for Plotinus. Do explain?

[Plotinus]

@Wanderer: yes. a few actually but some of them are improbable. I think the most likely is that the newbie scumteam didn't manage to figure out who the remaining power role was on day 2 so they went with the most experienced player instead. The IC would have been helpful in LYLO, so in the absence of an obvious power role, the IC was chosen. Skold's idea of everyone listing their suspected scumteams can sort of help rule this out once they claim because anyone who suspects the person with the power role hasn't figured out who it is.

Or a more experienced scumteam thought singer had a power role because she didn't stick her neck out too much this game and was careful not to lead the town and she wasn't the most widely townread which may have been an intentional move to avoid the nightkill (if she had a power role).

the improbable theory relies on the power role intentionally not being killed because the person with the powerrole would consider anyone who knew that they were a power role and didn't kill them to be innocent. For example if the power role crumbed their role to a particular player and then weren't nightkilled, that particular player would look innocent and wouldn't be a lynch candidate.


Last game in LYLO when we were all so sure of ducks, I did have a thought "oh no what if it's wanderer" because I'd read on the wiki that you should vote your townread in LYLO and because I'd been wrong about everything so much I worried I was wrong about wanderer too, but wanderer was the one person in the entire game that I wasn't wrong about. Anyway, the improbably theory feels like that "oh no what if it's wanderer" feeling from last game.

@skold: leaning argos/wyvernite at the moment but not ready to vote. I want to hear from Wyvernite or Wyvernite's replacement (he's due for a prod soon, but I really hope he won't have to be replaced because a replacement can't tell us what wyvernite's been thinking. Wyvernite has been out of step with the rest of us which if he's town could be a good thing after two mislynches, and I want to know how his reads have changed after dcl's death, if he still suspects wanderer and me, what he thinks of you and argos)

[Wanderer-nl]

@Plotinus: Gotcha.

Who would be up for an Argos-lynch today?
(Will explain after everyone has answered)

[Plotinus]

sure, Argos can be on the table. He is reminding me a bit of mainez from last game.

Skold? Wyv? opinions about Argos?

[Skold]

I think Wanderer and you are town, so my scum read on Argos is mostly via process of elimination. If there is a better case, I'd be happy to hear it.

[Skold]

Going to be honest, I'd rather see a Wyv lynch, but I could settle for Argos if it came to it.

[Wanderer-nl]

Well then,
Skold and Argos are the scumteam.

Nobody vote before Wyvernite gets in!

[Plotinus]

@Mod can wyvernite be prodded please

[Plotinus]

Wyvernite hasn't even visited the site since before the hammer: Last visited:29 Apr 2015 07:39

[Cephrir]

Prodding. I am back now.

[Wanderer-nl]

Good to have you back, Cephrir

Wyvernite still hasn't logged in.
Skold has logged in and posted somewhere else.
Argos hasn't been here since a little after 523.

Getting more and more confident it's Skold and Argos.

[Plotinus]

yeah. I'd still like to hear from Wyvernite's replacement if he's being replaced, though. Deadline wasn't listed in the daystart post, but I guess we have until around the 16th May, so that's plenty of time for Wyvernite to either come back or be replaced.

Or, I guess we have to wait anyway, because we need 3.

[Wanderer-nl]

Yup.

[Cephrir]

Deadline will indeed be May 16th, 2 PM US Eastern.

[Plotinus]

I have listed every interaction here, not just ones i found particularly towny or scummy. That includes referring to arguments we've been asked by the mod to drop so responses to this post shouldn't focus on those. the interaction happened but it should be considered null.

Wyv/Skold

Wyvernite's interactions with skold

:
RVS voted him in 33
Unvoted him to vote saad instead in 61
found him scummy in 244 but didn't want to read him because he was V/LA

Skold's interactions with wyvernite

:
shared favourite type of pasta in 52
asked wyvernite why he was scumreading wanderer in 347
was nullreading him in 375
tentatively accepting of the case against wyvernite in 502
wanted to give wyvernite time to defend himself in 509
called him scummy in 517
listed wyvernite as scum with argos in 523
asked wyvernite to explain his views on me in 525
prefers wyvernite lynch over argos in 530

Wyv/Argos

Wyvernite's interactions with Argos

:
townlean on him in 244

Argos' interactions with Wyvernite

:
Wants to hear more from him in 184
has trouble reading him in 326
doesn't like how wyvernite is afraid of bandwagonning people and voting people others are townreading in 513
guesses he would vote wyvernite 516
scumread on wyv is mostly process of elimination but doesn't think skold would bus wyvernite so soon 521

Skold/Argos

Skold's interactions with Argos

:
wants dcl's opinions on argos (and singer) in 343
null on argos in 375
refuses to continue the replacements/ongoing games discussion with argos in 418
asks me who of himself, wyv, and argos I'd be willing to vote in 502
i think he's calling argos inactive in 509 (this is just a brief mention of argos, he's asking for clarification on something wanderer said)
argos is scum by PoE in 523 and 529
prefers wyv lynch over argos in 530

Argos' interactions with Skold

:
finds his posts flighty and odd but it could just be playstyle in 184
would be suspicious of Skold if he replaced out because newbie scum are more likely to do so (this is true) but doesn't want to rush to judgements based on statistics in 236
wants skold to talk more and would like to see some pressure applied on him in 326
wants him to explain his reads regardless of alignment in 377
ongoing games thing in 416
not fully happy with skold but liked his response to pressure in 452
skold-wyvernite team based on PoE but doesn't think Skold would bus wyvernite this early in 521

Argos seems a lot more tentative around Skold than around Wyvernite. Like, every interaction with him is "he seems a bit off but it could be nothing" or "he seems more towny but could be still be scummy". I think Argos is cautious in general and I have a soft spot for cautious players, and I think there was some of this with saad as well: he seems scummy but he could be a non native speaker, he seems scummy but maybe it's just his punctuation (and I was saying those things early on too for different reasons that I still can't talk about, but the main reason I stopped was that I didn't

know

he was town and defending him didn't seem to be doing any of us any good. it was just too much work for someone who easily could have been scum after all.)

there are a few things that don't quite fit but maybe i'm assigning too much weight to them. I think one of my flaws is that I keep trying to approach this like a logic puzzle and it isn't one.

[Skold]

Good to have you back, Cephrir

Wyvernite still hasn't logged in.
Skold has logged in and posted somewhere else.
Argos hasn't been here since a little after 523.

Getting more and more confident it's Skold and Argos.

What? If not logging in is a reason for scum then it's Wyvernite/Argos. If posting elsewhere is a reason for scum, then what bizzaro land are we in? You've yet to explain this duo. Are you town reading Wyvernite? Wanderer is making less and less sense. I'm waiting on that replacement.
pedit: Holy fuck, I'm getting to that later.

[Skold]

Plotinus' post seemed a little tip-toey. Who is your bet for the scum team? I won't discuss the content, because it's simply a matter of fact and there isn't much you can say about it.
@Argos there is no reason to rule out a bus. Completely possible strategy if they were moving forward into D4 mylo. Also that PoE is inconsistent. Your scum team is either Me-Wyv in which case I AM bussing him.
Argos scum read moved from PoE > Read on it's own legs.

[Plotinus]

I still don't know, Skold. I'm pretty sure that there are two scum in [skold, argos, wyvernite] so i looked at everyone's interactions and hoped it would help me make some sense of it. Argos' interactions with you have been kinda weird, but none of your slots have had a lot of interaction with each other (or with anybody else) so every little insignificant post seems more significant which is unfortunate. All three of you have been pretty null on each other all game which makes it hard to sort things out.

I *can* see what Wanderer is driving at, and Argos/Skold makes sense in that light from that perspective. I can also still see Argos/Wyvernite as making sense for a few different reasons that are kind of logic puzzley though. I think Wyvernite/Skold is unlikely.

I do think that Argos' perspective on you is weird. Your own perspective of "well it's not me and plot and wanderer seem town so it must be wyv/argos" makes perfect sense to me. Argos' perspective of "well it's not me, and plot and wanderer seem town, so it must be skold/wyv but no wait it couldn't be skold/wyv" seems off to me. but it seems off as either town or scum. I'd really like to here Wyvernite's perspective too, though.

In my last game, it was wanderer and plot must be town so it's 2 in [house, mainez, ducks] and all three of them were pretty firm about "it has to be the other two". anyway we lynched ducks and it was house/mainez.

I know I should look at wanderer's interactions with the 3 of you as well even though I'm pretty sure that she's town by now, and I probably will later. i should probably also do up my own interactions with you guys so that i could compare because at least my own alignment is modconfirmed (town) to me so i could use that as a baseline.

I also have been reading up mafia theory and want to think about BBT's and singer's reads, what little we have them in the first case, and think some about why those of us who were brought into LYLO were brought here. I am alive because scum thought I'd still be suspicious for the derphammer thing, I think.

Wanderer, Skold, Argos, Wyvernite*: why do you think you're here?

*If Wyvernite is replaced I'd still like his replacement to look over wyvernite's prior activity and try to make a guess.

[Skold]

@The question - That's deep bro. I dunno what IS the meaning of life? Oh wait, you mean in this game? Achieve my win condition? Lynch scum, eat some ice cream, congratulate self?

[Plotinus]

I mean here in LYLO. Two nights in a row scum didn't nightkill any of the people who are still alive. They could have done if they wanted to. They thought BBT and singer would be better at finding scum or harder to mislynch or more likely to be a power role or something. They left (each of) you alive. Why?

[Skold]

Because I was less useful and contributed less to the game. I'm easier as a free mislynch. Or because BBT and Singer would be harder to convince people of, so they used the scum kill on them. Or they didn't think me consequential and ignored me as an option. Or enough different reasons that it would tiresome to name them all and leave us with more questions and less answers than we started off with. I could just as easily ask you the same, but I doubt I would get different answers.

[Plotinus]

I am alive because scum thought I'd still be suspicious for the derphammer thing, I think.

[Wanderer-nl]

This is fucking frustrating. One flaked and the other 2 are barely putting in thoughts. How is this playing a game?

[Wanderer-nl]

@mod: Argos hasn't been on site for over 48 hours. Prod please.
I also hope you find replacement for Wyvernite quickly.
If Argos doesn't respond to prod and needs replacement as well, could you give us an extension if we should need one?

[Plotinus]

it's been more than 24 hours since wyv was prodded and he still hasn't visited the site since 29 april and it's not the weekend (when he was usually V/LA).

I'm frustrated too. it's a bad point in the game for people to site flake.