In post 3411, Sakura Hana wrote:So I'm looking at our options here.
If we assume that Echo claimed Mason to out ika then Echo's scum.
ika also didn't want us to deviate from sala's townbloc, that would make Echo town and would make Shazam the next in the lynch pool.
Also if we assume Echo town that means there's 2 scum in Axle/Spiffeh/DGB/Shazam
Axle has been the only one i've seen here actually following the game along and trying to solve it, he's the person i think is the most town out of those 4.
I want to know what he thinks about DGB since i think he thought frog was scum at some point?
As pointed out Ika was scum reading Echo recently.
Echo did soft CC, mason here 3301, but IKa went along with it, assuming it might be echo having worked out ika was the mason and was drawing the kill. (see 3347)
@EchoEcho please explain your vote on ika yesterday
Yeah, this is what I was thinking pretty much. I thought it was ika yesterday because of Echo's claim, but with Echo's claim being proven false, I'm pretty sure Echo is scum. My iso #23 is interesting in light of tn being scum. Seems to me that Echo had the worst case on him imaginable, so it lines up with a bus.
I have of course been suspicious of Sakura, but if she's scum, we'll find out soon enough.
Wait a second, this is MyLo, can anyone tell me why aren't we voting for No Lynch? the worst that can happen is that scum pops my BP and we end up in the same situation again.
So Echo soft-claims Mason, says that we need to lynch Davsto and last scum is between ika or Shazam, ika does nothing Echo votes Davsto.
ika yells about lynching Davsto.
Echo votes ika.
ika rages and counter claims Echo (ika's confirmed to be Mason now by Night Kill).
Possible theories:
Town!Echo thought ika was aiming for a mislynch and switched vote.
Scum!Echo decided to mislynch ika instead.
What i don't understand is... the whole thing with the ika CC and thinking Echo could be scum while simultanously thinking that Echo was trying to draw a bullet, Echo's read progression towards voting ika from Davsto is unclear.
Ok Echo's reads are not exactly clear but we can probably figure it out.
Davsto/ika/Shazam were Echo's scumreads, obviously he didn't think was the Mason.
Frogger's constant mentioning that he should be lynched, obviously that's not a Mason.
I was a claimed JOAT.
In post 3430, Sakura Hana wrote:So Echo soft-claims Mason, says that we need to lynch Davsto and last scum is between ika or Shazam, ika does nothing Echo votes Davsto.
ika yells about lynching Davsto.
Echo votes ika.
ika rages and counter claims Echo (ika's confirmed to be Mason now by Night Kill).
Possible theories:
Town!Echo thought ika was aiming for a mislynch and switched vote.
Scum!Echo decided to mislynch ika instead.
What i don't understand is... the whole thing with the ika CC and thinking Echo could be scum while simultanously thinking that Echo was trying to draw a bullet, Echo's read progression towards voting ika from Davsto is unclear.
P-Edit: Imma go and recheck Echo's reads.
Ika had thought, that if Echo echo was town, then echo echo had softed mason to draw the shot. If was a very soft mason claim.
Echo did not say he was mason just asked if it would make the VLA of if the was the mason.
It looked like a fake claim. I wondered whether scum would think it real or not.
In post 3431, Sakura Hana wrote:Ok Echo's reads are not exactly clear but we can probably figure it out.
Davsto/ika/Shazam were Echo's scumreads, obviously he didn't think was the Mason.
Frogger's constant mentioning that he should be lynched, obviously that's not a Mason.
I was a claimed JOAT.
My guess is... you?
That would be daft. The two people that never voted the other mason nor were voted by them were echo echo and ika.
I bvelieve IIRC that some people had openly speculated(mooted those two names as the one of them being the mason)
That Echo echo would put Ika in the list of possible scum but never vote him(before then), is not inconsistent with knowing hes the mason.
If you are covering for the mason that is what you ought do. (especially if it is the result of VCA)
In post 3430, Sakura Hana wrote:Possible theories:
Town!Echo thought ika was aiming for a mislynch and switched vote.
Scum!Echo decided to mislynch ika instead.
No matter what Echo echos alignment
This is not Echo echo driving to lynch IKa
As mentioned I am going VLA.
Even if we no lynch there is no guarantee scum would shoot Sakura. (once and then once again)(assuming the BP is legit)
There is stuff I need to put in the thread. ordinarily Id wait and see how stuff plays out today, but with Echo VLA, I cant play this how I want to.
I would suggest what is in the spoilers may not yet be relevant. But if I die.... then yeah it is. If this day plays out in the some of the ways it might, then yeah it is.
meanwhile i am writing it down while i have some time. (I also have to get ready to go away)
Spoiler: Is Echo Echo the alt of a competent mafia player
TLDR: YEP
or just comptetent without caring about choosing between alt or visiting player from another site.
These posts say yes
Looking in his posts, they lack content. All of it is filler and feel awkward in the sense that they state facts but never provide their own opinion on the game. He has no townreads or scumreads, and to put it bluntly, is just coasting.
I understand why Frogger townread him off Post 8, but it appears to be something playstyle-dependednt and can be easily faked as scum. Frogger mistakenly townread him for a null action because he saw Axle perform it a couple of times before. He has since revised this read.
Ostensibly, he has not provided his thoughts on the game, or on any players, or any reasonable votes that a town player would have made early game. The best he has provided theory discussion that is unfortunately not very correct.
Its BS. It wont fly. It is place to park his vote.
AND
I think it would express a legit concern. My play yup to there had been "odd" (for reasons)
TLDR 418 Is not altogether fluff. And it does reflect my read of how Echo echo evaluates his own skill level and experience and the stature with which he would expect to be seen if he claimed who he was.
Are his two VCAs bollocks
Spoiler: yep
Also see my previous criticism of them
2808 raw data conclusion 2809 bad explanation 2820
This bit for instance is awful
In post 2820, Echo Echo wrote:Look at bearbert's vote on the flubber wagon. It is at vote 7 out of 8. Looks pretty safe and scummy right. I think so too.
Not once Bear flips town, this wagon and votes on it do not even figure in his next analysis.
new VCA raw data 3314 revised VCA 3321
That wagon now has no importance at all.
It is not that the wagon is inconsistent with his final conclusion, but this time it plays no part in the analysis.
That the analysis is BS, was clear to me from the start. What echo echo had if he is town is other reasons for having the reads that his VCA gives as their answer, and then he gets them.
The most the VCA does is not contradict his reads.
Which is kind of fair enough ,as thats what VCA is good for, validating and idiot checking your reads.
My problem is it feels like way to lynch people with clean hands, when echo echo doesnt also say they are his reads. WHile not on the same level as when noobs do it, that can be seen as retreating into the safety of a mechanistic approach to making reads and choosing which wagon to drive.
Echo possibly distancing from the Davsto flip.
In post 3181, Echo Echo wrote:I'm still testing my VCA, so for science, I'm going to leave my vote on you.
If you're town, sorry.
Yeah but Echo echo is in the town block because.....
He did not really DRIVE the tn wagon.
Spoiler: TN posts
Shazam 1526 noted the echo echo post was odd.
He does quote 1081 where tn expressed strong opinions about mario being scum BUT echo echo di not point out that was incongruous with Tn later jumping off the wagon 1147.
It was spiffeh in 1485 that made the actual observation of how bad that was and why.
and then basically no more pushing of the tn wagon 1649 is not exactly driving the lynch home
Its true that even drawing as much attention as 1483 did, is a risk to do to a scum buddy.
In post 3404, DrippingGoofball wrote:I don't see a missing kill. I have a hard time believing that you have a passive BP mixed in with two active abilities. Claim all your targets now. It's Day 7. You have 6 nights to account for.
From most suspicious to least
9 Sakura Hana
8
+ bus'ed by Firebringer
Spiffeh
5 Echo
5 Shazam
4 Shiro
4 Axle
The interesting thing about blind objective numerical algorithms, is that they can be applied to anyone.
FYI: I think Implemented your algorithm right and your slot scored 7.
Also I have not actually gone back and done it, but i suspect i might usually score low on your scum computer as all alignments as i don't sheep much.
But also wont show up in the other category that you sometimes use where people are suspicious for never voting any major wagons.(or perhaps its frequently not voting?)
If you make up another algorithm where you count every one hiding not on the main wagon (irrespective of alignment of the main wagons flip)
then as i march to the beat of my own drum often, then I would habitually show up with a high score.
I strongly suspect you scum puter has bias that will always tend to score me low.
Another thing that is odd to me is why you expect second scum on this bearbert wagon
, DrippingGoofball, Sakura Hana
DrippingGoofball (2) - Shazam, AxleGreaser
Davsto (2) - Bearbert D, Echo Echo
Shazam (1) - Ricastle
One of these is scum Sakura Hana
Surely according to your assumptions once you find enough scum on a wagon then any unflipped people look townier not scummier.
I also find it odd that your analysis doesnt allow for who recently jumped off a wagon such as this one.
Davsto (5) - ika, AxleGreaser, Spiffeh, Sakura Hana, Davsto
ika (2) - Shazam, Echo Echo
One of these is scum AxleGreaser, Spiffef, Sakura Hana
WHAT IF ONE OF THE SAKURA HANA JOAT SCUM POWERS IS A 1-SHOT DOCTOR???
Paraphrasing a role PM takes seconds, fabricating a good fakeclaim takes an eternity.
"Metadiving DGB is like playing Roblox" - T3
"She's sort of like a quantum computer, her reads exist in multiple states at once. u have to take into account the other dimensions." - Morning Tweet
In post 3440, AxleGreaser wrote:Surely according to your assumptions once you find enough scum on a wagon then any unflipped people look townier not scummier.
There tends to be more scum on wagons than expected by chance.
Paraphrasing a role PM takes seconds, fabricating a good fakeclaim takes an eternity.
"Metadiving DGB is like playing Roblox" - T3
"She's sort of like a quantum computer, her reads exist in multiple states at once. u have to take into account the other dimensions." - Morning Tweet
Paraphrasing a role PM takes seconds, fabricating a good fakeclaim takes an eternity.
"Metadiving DGB is like playing Roblox" - T3
"She's sort of like a quantum computer, her reads exist in multiple states at once. u have to take into account the other dimensions." - Morning Tweet
WHAT IF ONE OF THE SAKURA HANA JOAT SCUM POWERS IS A 1-SHOT DOCTOR???
If Sakura hana is scum. What would make you think she told any part of the truth about her role? especially the tracker part?
Id be more inclide to think scum has full doc. or two a shot one at least.
And whiel i am speculating (remembering how bad i am at balance) the other scum role beinga role cop would be interestign as they have to jhunt the mod confirmable townies.
In post 3440, AxleGreaser wrote:Surely according to your assumptions once you find enough scum on a wagon then any unflipped people look townier not scummier.
There tends to be more scum on wagons than expected by chance.
And so you are speculating there is an apriori assumption of 50% scum on that wagon?
err nope.
either you're bad at this probability stuff (pdf's and the like) or you dont really believe that either.
Also I am not at home, but when i get there I am pretty sure, that I will link to places in previous games, where you previously expliclty worked with (no more scum than by chance)
Well actually what would explain there being more than 1 scum on that wagon is if the other wagon was on scum.
In post 3445, AxleGreaser wrote:lso I am not at home, but when i get there I am pretty sure, that I will link to places in previous games, where you previously expliclty worked with (no more scum than by chance)
oops.
I misread what happened in this other game, (a bit)
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 8#p3246568
you were scum and used different base chance for each wagon (The doubling however appears to have something to do with the wagons reforming a second time)
(but basically each wagon had an approximately random expectation of scum)
then this one had some other way of estimating how many scum on the wagon http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 3#p3228113
however all the numbers were in the range 25% scum to 30% so it wasnt really that much different to random for any one wagon.
So,
I am not really buying your belief in higher than random of scum and specifically thinking that this particular wagon would have 50% scum for no particular reason.
Spoiler: the wagon
If it was general belief of yours that there are more than the average number of scum on wagons then some of your previous wagons would have been expected to have several scum.
THis is wagon on town with small counter wagon on scum
Flubbernugget
(8) - Echo Echo,
Vedith,
Sakura Hana,
Shiro
, DrippingGoofball,
Davsto, Bearbert D,
Spiffeh
Firebringer
(2) -
Ricastle
, AxleGreaser
One of these is scum Sakura Hana, Spiffeh, Echo Echo, Shiro
me finding one or even two scum on the town wagon would make me feel good about the reads.
Expected number of scum on the wagon if I see such a wagon many times is >1
Heres another (a humdinger)
Bearbert D
(4) -
Firebringer,
Echo Echo, AxleGreaser, DrippingGoofball
Firebringer
(4) - Shazam, Sakura Hana,
Bearbert D, Vedith
DrippingGoofball (1) -
Ricastle
One of these is scum Axlegreaser, Echo Echo
There is wagon on town and a competitive one on scum.
You read read me as town, 3441
That wagon has counter wagon on scum, you have looked at your own PM, so it looks to me like you ought be weighting Echo echo pretty heavily as scum for that vote.
From
my point of view
,
as I have not seen your PM
.
Bearbert D
(4) -
Firebringer,
Echo Echo
, AxleGreaser,
DrippingGoofball
Firebringer
(4) - Shazam, Sakura Hana,
Bearbert D, Vedith
DrippingGoofball
(1) -
Ricastle
One of these is scum Axlegreaser, Echo Echo
I can even accept 3 scum on the wagon as plausible, given that then all counter wagons are on scum.
