Newbie 1673: University of Mafiascum Class 108 - D4- OVER!

Kahlan · Post Post #475 (ISO) » Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:29 pm

Sorry @zar I have been reading the post just didn't have time to reply to them yet. I'll try and get a few of my thoughts up tonight. For some reason I thought I had posted yesterday but I think I forgot to submit it. Sorry again!

Kahlan · Post Post #476 (ISO) » Wed Jan 20, 2016 6:59 pm

In post 464, soulmonarch wrote:
In post 460, newbieinmafia wrote:
That's not true. Mafia now knows the exact setup and can narrow down the other PR (thus higher chance of hitting the other PR).

Noted earlier:
Everyone here (should have) already known that Usted was claiming to be Bulletproof. There was literally no other option. Therefore, actually stating it out loud changes nothing. Mafia knows
exactly
what they already knew before.

@soul I'm wondering why you think everyone should have already known usted was claiming bulletproof? He stated before (before he actually claimed bulletproof) that his PR was in the left two columns so with that why would we have known? There could have been other choices.

In post 457, Extrapolated Eagle wrote:I still don't think soul is a good vote, usted. *sigh* maybe kahlan? Whoever it is plays a good scum game, I think.

I'm going to go with this for now, though:

VOTE: huntress

Not too much content out of this slot and while I liked their recent posts this is more a read on the previous slot. Maybe lurker scummish?

@EE what? You confuse me. First you say I give you a strong town read but yet I'm the first one to pop into your head when you're thinking of someone to vote for since you can't vote usted.

My reads:
Newbie and usted have always felt like townie to me.
After a few recents post workdawg is making me feel like he is town as well.
Now I don't have to much to go off of with huntress so I can't say for sure how I feel about her.
My two scum reads so fat right now are EE and Soul.

I just wanted to make a little post. I will get back on tomorrow and write more when I'm not falling asleep on my phone.

soulmonarch · Post Post #477 (ISO) » Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:46 pm

In post 476, Kahlan wrote:
@soul I'm wondering why you think everyone should have already known usted was claiming bulletproof? He stated before (before he actually claimed bulletproof) that his PR was in the left two columns so with that why would we have known? There could have been other choices.

Explained in previous posts, but I can do it again.

Taking his original claim at face value:

- In the left two columns, the options on the matrix are JK, BP, Cop or a VT.
- Obviously he can not occupy the VT slot.
- As Jailkeeper, the possible options for the other player are the BP or a VT. He would not be certain there was another power player in the game.
- As Cop, the other options are Doctor or a VT. Same problem as above.
- As Bulletproof townie, he can guarantee that there is another PR, he just does not know for certain which.

If he is telling the truth (i.e. town), Bulletproof is the only possible option.

One of my primary concerns with the claim is that anyone could have figured it out -- which doesn't necessarily guarantee everyone would have. If scum figured it out, they would want to stay quiet about it in hopes that not all of the townies would have done the same. Hell, if I'd been scum, I know my primary goal would have been to do everything in my power to keep it under wraps. Knowledge is power. The only solution to that problem was to spell it out as plainly as possible for everyone, evening the field somewhat. They still hold a knowledge advantage, but much less so than if a couple townies weren't totally up to speed on the ramifications of the claim.

Zar · Post Post #478 (ISO) » Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:00 am

Day 2, Votecount 7

Huntress (2): Extrapolated Eagle, newbieinmafia
Extrapolated Eagle (1): Usted
soulmonarch (1): Workdawg
Workdawg (1): Huntress

Not Voting (2)

: Kahlan, soulmonarch

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch or to no lynch.

Deadline

: Tuesday January 27, 2016 11:15 PM New York Time. (GMT-5)

Countdown to deadline

: (expired on 2016-01-28 00:15:00)

Kahlan · Post Post #479 (ISO) » Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:30 am

In post 477, soulmonarch wrote:
In post 476, Kahlan wrote:
@soul I'm wondering why you think everyone should have already known usted was claiming bulletproof? He stated before (before he actually claimed bulletproof) that his PR was in the left two columns so with that why would we have known? There could have been other choices.

Explained in previous posts, but I can do it again.

Taking his original claim at face value:

- In the left two columns, the options on the matrix are JK, BP, Cop or a VT.
- Obviously he can not occupy the VT slot.
-
As Jailkeeper, the possible options for the other player are the BP
or a VT. He would not be certain there was another power player in the game.
-
As Cop, the other options are Doctor
or a VT. Same problem as above.
- As Bulletproof townie, he can guarantee that there is another PR, he just does not know for certain which.

If he is telling the truth (i.e. town), Bulletproof is the only possible option.

Okay @soul I already saw your post from before and I understand that being bulletproof makes him guaranteed to have another PR but just because he was guaranteed another PR that doesn't automatically mean he was bulletproof. what I was getting at is there was always a possibility of him having a different PR. Which brings me to the bold parts ^^ he could have been a JK or cop and there could have been a bulletproof or doctor if there is a scum roleblocker in the game. So unless you knew for a fact there isn't a scum roleblocker then there is a chance he could have been a JK or cop. What I'm trying to say unless you are scum and knew if there is or isn't a roleblocker scum role then more than likely you couldn't possibly have known for sure usted would have claimed bulletproof. which makes me curious, maybe you know something more and happen to know all the roles now?

Workdawg · Post Post #480 (ISO) » Thu Jan 21, 2016 7:20 am

In post 474, soulmonarch wrote:
I stand by it.

I am aware that people tend to read "pushing" as scummy behavior. I don't take it personally. (Standard moralistic fallacy:
"This person seems like a jerk right now, therefore this person is most likely scum."
)
I typically avoid making that type of play unless I think the potential outcome is worth it. In this case, I considered it worth the possibility of a mislynch or making myself a target for the NK. Figure it this way: I know that if I die I'll flip town. So the question becomes "does everyone else benefit from knowing that I was genuine?"

Also, I have elaborated a couple times about why Usted's 'reveal' did not give any additional information about the setup to anyone. Moreover, I also have elaborated on why transparency is beneficial to town in this case. The only people who benefit from obscuring information are the scum.
I won't lie: It bothers me a touch that you reiterated a point that I have already put lots of time into, and did it as if I had not even tried.

...

I don't find pushing to be scummy necessarily, obviously we have to do it to find scum. I don't think I said that I felt you were scummy for pushing Usted. I said that it felt to me like you were fishing for more information about the setup. I know you've said that there was no more information to be found, so it's kind of a moot point, but I will elaborate on why I'm not entirely sure about that below.

As for the second bolded part... I'm sorry I guess? I'm not really sure what you are referring to though.

@Kahlan

- The problem for me, and it seems like for you as well, is the assumption that Usted knows with 100% certainty that there is another PR. Usted never says it in any of his posts until he hard claims in post 450 and lays it all out there. It is implied, but since he never explicitly stated it, there was no way to know for sure. And because he was being intentionally vague up until post 450, there's really know way to know for sure if he knows 100% or not. Now in 450 he does state it, so that makes things clear.

Here are all the posts where he talks about this:
[spoiler="Posts talking about "the other PR"]

In post 430, Usted wrote:So I've been thinking about this for a bit, even considered doing it day 1.

Now I think I've come up with a soft claim that allows
our other tpr
to remain hidden, but allows for them to better understand the setup without giving the same luxury to scum. And imo it also clears my name. You'll have to trust me a bit here. The reason I'm being sketchy about this is because if I just outright claim then scum will have a better understanding of why tprs they are against.

I'm a tpr and my role rests in the left two columns.

In post 432, Usted wrote:
The other tpr
knows I'm telling the truth.

In post 446, Usted wrote:At this point I see Soul as the most likely scum. It seems as if they tried to skew what my claim actually means. I thought out all of the scenarios in my head about what information my claim would give
the other pr
as well as what information it could potentially give Mafia.

I am in fact aware of the 1 column or row feature. That is the whole basis of my claim. Any time someone is a PR they know the exact setup between 2 options (their row or column). I don't know the exact setup but I do have it narrowed down between 1 row and 1 column.

I think would is also trying to town slip by talking about the possible existence of a Mafia rb.

And for the reasons stated above
VOTE: soulmonarch

In post 448, Usted wrote:im not sure what you want me to respond to. You didn't ask me any questions. Your ability to analyze the situation so well makes me feel that you have more information than the VT's. God bless you if you are
the other pr
, because you should've layed low. Thus my vote remains.

In post 450, Usted wrote:Here is what I intended to be interpreted from my message.

I am a pr in the left two columns, and
I know that there is another pr
. That means that the game is NOT Row 1, Column 2, or Column three.

The town roles in the left two columns are JK, Cop, VT, and one shot. If I was a VT I am pretty sure I would be not aware that I was a VT from the matrix. If I were JK there would be 50/50 shot that we had a one shot or a VT. if I was cop it would be 50/50 between VT and doctor. But I KNOW there is another PR.

So obviously yes I am one shot bpv townie. Anyone given my message could have interpreted this.

Now I suppose it is possible that I could be lying about this claim, but why would I go to all the trouble.

As a one shot bpv there is a 50/50 that there is a goon/goon setup or a goon/RB'r mafia setup. So now mafia knows more than we do.

I was trying to send a message to the other PR but you guys decided to go out and say it anyways.

Is it common to lynch claimed power roles? Surely not.

[/spoiler]

So, operating under the ASSUMPTION that he knows there is another PR with 100% certainty, then his only role could be BP.

Kahlan · Post Post #481 (ISO) » Thu Jan 21, 2016 10:22 am

@workdawg okay now I see the point that soul was trying to make. Usted knew for sure that there had to be another TPR so it make since that soul would be able to be narrowed down to bulletproof even before usted said something.

Huntress · Post Post #482 (ISO) » Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:33 pm

I've been trying to find what gave me that gut read on Workdawg but apart from the following from post 85 I can't find anything definite in his ISO. I suspect it might have been some interaction that added to the read I had from 85.

From that post I had the impression he was buddying up to Drixx. Also, only

nine hours

into the game he is listing post counts and complaining that less than half the players in the thread have posted much more than a confirm/rvs vote and calling them lurkers, which is a misuse of the term. He then makes the point about votes being one of town's greatest tools and not letting his go to waste, then goes and votes for a player who he knows is on vla.

As I said earlier 397 is a bit of a scum tell too.

@ Soulmonarch:

The problem I have with you, or anyone else, encouraging discussion of Usted's claim is that it could cause the other PR, or a genuine PR, to slip and give themselves away. So I have a slight scumlean on you for that.

My busyness will be over on Saturday after which I get a whole week free so I should be more active then (and not posting when I should be sleeping).

Kahlan · Post Post #483 (ISO) » Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:22 pm

In post 402, Workdawg wrote:

One thing that I will state is that I find it pretty unlikely that both scum were on that wagon, considering literally everyone was willing to lynch Ness there would be no reason for both of them to be involved. That does conveniently imply that either Usted or Huntress is scum though.

@workdawg I don't agree with this. Now knowing more than likely usted is a PR town and I'm leaning more towards a town read for huntress. I would say there could be a high chance both scum guys were on the ness wagon. Going off the two guys I'm reading as scum right now soul and EE I would say one started the train and the other one ended it. Soul had voted ness because his theory of Ness and EE scum team but what if he said EE to throw off town so we wouldn't doubt him but yet he doesn't vote for EE rather he votes for ness and his vote stays on ness the whole time. While EE bounces back and forth with his votes. Something interesting caught my eye in EE first vote against ness..

In post 242, Extrapolated Eagle wrote:
In post 241, N e s s wrote:Well it seems like i'm being lynched. Well, hopefully my mislynch will help the town in some way.

You have nothing to say? O_o

Your apathy astounds me.

VOTE: Ness

That's L-1. Anyone who wants to hammer should say so before they do so Ness has a chance to claim just in case.

He votes for ness for no real reason putting ness at L-1 then later unvoted but tells ness that if he doesn't hear from him soon he will recast his vote the same. I think EE had already made his mind up that he was going to vote for ness no matter what ness came up with in a post. Granted I thought ness did do a lot of scummy things but I realize I probably should have went with my gut feeling because in my gut I didn't fully believe ness was scum even though his actions told me different. that is why I'm going off of my gut feel a bit right now because even though I have read some scummy post and some not so scummy post by EE my gut is telling me there is something off about him.

FoS EE

Anyone else feel that both scums could have been riding the ness train?

Extrapolated Eagle · Post Post #484 (ISO) » Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:31 pm

No, Kahlan. I was actually expecting ness to come up with some sort of content, or I wouldn't have defended him. I was incredibly frustrated in that post that he would turn around and refuse to contribute to the thread after I went to defend him.

I have to say that while I've got a town read on you, k, it is really frustrating playing with you since it feels like everything I say/do gets misrepresented or misread by you, and I would one hundred percent scum read you for it if you didn't seem to do it with literally everyone. I have no idea what it is or why you read everything so dang differently from everyone else but I have to tell you that reading your posts sometimes just makes me want to rip all of my hair out of my head, eat it, and then barf it up.

Kahlan · Post Post #485 (ISO) » Thu Jan 21, 2016 7:26 pm

Wow @EE you sure know how to make a person feel good. I've told many times before I think differently then you just because I don't see it your way doesn't make me completely wrong. Isn't that the point of asking questions or making theories? To test them out to find the answers you are searching for? That is simply what I am trying to do the best way I know how. I have already told you plenty of times this is my first game and I wasn't lying to you. I have never in my life played a game like mafia or any sort of forum game. So I can understand why you would be so frustrated with how I think and play but when you just attack me instead of help me learn it makes it a lot harder to enjoy the game. Maybe you attack me because I'm on to you as scum or maybe not. Whatever the case may be if you are town and you know I'm town then you should help me instead of getting frustrated at me. Sometime people see things as so simple but for others it might need it to be more simplified. I'm trying my best to read things how I see them. I'm just trying to learn the game.

Extrapolated Eagle · Post Post #486 (ISO) » Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:25 pm

Not attacking you, or at least intending to. Not having a problem with you as a person. Just... It's like if I gave someone a birthday present and instead of being grateful they started talking about that I did it because I wanted to get that good feeling you get when you give someone something.

Oh gosh that's a terrible example. I'm not frustrated with you, per say, but... I don't know. Do you kind of understand the feeling?

Zar · Post Post #487 (ISO) » Fri Jan 22, 2016 3:08 am

Day 2, Votecount 8

Huntress (2): Extrapolated Eagle, newbieinmafia
Extrapolated Eagle (1): Usted
soulmonarch (1): Workdawg
Workdawg (1): Huntress

Not Voting (2)

: Kahlan, soulmonarch

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch or to no lynch.

Deadline

: Tuesday January 27, 2016 11:15 PM New York Time. (GMT-5)

Countdown to deadline

: (expired on 2016-01-28 00:15:00)

newbieinmafia · Post Post #488 (ISO) » Fri Jan 22, 2016 6:57 am

It's fine to criticize other's play but let's not add insult to it.

I like EE's response to my question. It feels town.
Also like soul's recent posts but Workdawg made a good point about role fishing.
I don't think there is a need for other town players to know the setup, especially on day 2.

Usted · Post Post #489 (ISO) » Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:25 am

Well obviously my Vote on EE didn't spark any interest.

Warnings Huntress is now L-1 -- do not hammer without a post of intent

VOTE: Huntress

Huntress · Post Post #490 (ISO) » Fri Jan 22, 2016 2:00 pm

Was that prompted by my saying I would have more time for this from tomorrow? Why wouldn't you want to wait for that?

soulmonarch · Post Post #491 (ISO) » Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:00 pm

In post 483, Kahlan wrote:
Anyone else feel that both scums could have been riding the ness train?

Workdawg's logic does make some sense: Since most everyone was leaning into the Ness lynch, scum would be pretty likely to just let it happen without their vote -- maybe they'd voice some non-committal support for it to seem like they were part of the mob mentality, but otherwise it would have been smartest to stay out of it. But by the same token, once it was obvious where it was going, scum could have been in on it without arousing much suspicion either. I believe everyone (see Workdawg's 402) had either already voted or declared their willingness to vote. With everyone either already "on" the wagon and the rest running alongside it just in case a seat opened up, the waters were pretty darn muddy.

In short, I think Workdawg is right in saying that it is

unlikely

that both were on the wagon. But unlikely implies that it might have still happened, so if you have theories I don't see why we shouldn't talk about them.

newbieinmafia · Post Post #492 (ISO) » Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:55 pm

I think there is a higher chance that both scum are on Ness wagon. The ones who are not on it are Ness (obviously), Drixx, Usted and Huntress. Three are confirmed town (I included Usted because there has been no CC).

umm I think I will unvote for now.
UNVOTE:

Zar · Post Post #493 (ISO) » Sat Jan 23, 2016 3:33 am

Day 2, Votecount 9

Huntress (2): Extrapolated Eagle, Usted
soulmonarch (1): Workdawg
Workdawg (1): Huntress

Not Voting (3)

: Kahlan, soulmonarch, newbieinmafia

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch or to no lynch.

Deadline

: Tuesday January 27, 2016 11:15 PM New York Time. (GMT-5)

Countdown to deadline

: (expired on 2016-01-28 00:15:00)

Zar · Post Post #494 (ISO) » Sat Jan 23, 2016 9:19 am

Prodding Workdawg

Kahlan · Post Post #495 (ISO) » Sat Jan 23, 2016 2:04 pm

In post 491, soulmonarch wrote:
In post 483, Kahlan wrote:
Anyone else feel that both scums could have been riding the ness train?

Workdawg's logic does make some sense: Since most everyone was leaning into the Ness lynch, scum would be pretty likely to just let it happen without their vote -- maybe they'd voice some non-committal support for it to seem like they were part of the mob mentality, but otherwise it would have been smartest to stay out of it. But by the same token, once it was obvious where it was going, scum could have been in on it without arousing much suspicion either. I believe everyone (see Workdawg's 402) had either already voted or declared their willingness to vote. With everyone either already "on" the wagon and the rest running alongside it just in case a seat opened up, the waters were pretty darn muddy.

In short, I think Workdawg is right in saying that it is
unlikely
that both were on the wagon. But unlikely implies that it might have still happened, so if you have theories I don't see why we shouldn't talk about them.

@Soul lets talk about it then. I feel like both scum were on the ness wagon. I think Newbie's post hit right on the nail in what I was thinking.

In post 492, newbieinmafia wrote:I think there is a higher chance that both scum are on Ness wagon. The ones who are not on it are Ness (obviously), Drixx, Usted and Huntress. Three are confirmed town (I included Usted because there has been no CC).

umm I think I will unvote for now.
UNVOTE:

We have at least three confirm towns and so far I feel that huntress is more likely town. If I am right and huntress is town that would mean both scum players were on the ness train. I have a few possible out comes on who I think the scum players might be. Here is one of my theories as I see playing out right now...

Soul/EE

Soul started the wagon on ness and EE finished it.

Soul votes for Ness playing as a Ness/EE team scenario.

Spoiler:

Soul could have been trying to throw everyone off by suggesting a Ness/EE team. I feel that his statement (in bold ^^) "
I agree that this is the most common scenario. However, especially early on D1, scum could have a lot to gain by starting -- or at least pushing -- a wagon on their team mate." Makes me feel that what I say might be true. What if soul was trying to make it look like he was going to start a wagon on EE but then starts the wagon for ness instead. Since Ness was clearly not his scum partner. By doing this it made it look like him and EE weren't partners intentionally throwing town people off.

Then EE didn't think Ness was scum but because Ness didn't post any content he votes for him (post 242) then later he doesnt want to waste anytime in closing the vote at the end. post 380, post 382

I also want to note that I didn't like how EE voted for Usted even after Usted claimed PRT.. It felt to similar to souls answer.( post 449) Plus for someone who says he is town and for the most part would know Usted was town then he probably shouldnt have voted for him. Especially since there wasnt a CC disproving usted's claim. so he voted usted knowing fully he was town. That seems pretty scummy to me.

Also after saying he reads me as a strong town he makes this post..
post 457
he was defending soul and then jumps to the idea that I may be scum after stating he felt I was town. That was kind of scummy in itself ( even if I was the first one to pop into his head post 465)

Here are some other team I think I could see too..
Soul/Workdawg
Workdawg/EE

Okay all three of these gentlemen are smooth talkers and can talk themselves out of almost anything I say and which of course causes me to doubt but if we are going off reads and gut feelings I think it might make it a bit easier... lol maybe.

Here are my reads

Usted

Going off his reads and claim I think he is more than likely town especially since no one had disproved his claim.

newbie and huntress

read/feel as town to me

Workdawg

I will say even putting him as a possible scum team^^ I think I'm leaning more town with him. That doesnt mean I'm completely sold but he saying a few thing lately I agree with.

EE

Ah EE I know I will probably be hearing from you but I feel right now EE could be scum. He is very quick to attack those who call him out or vote for him.

Soul

seems like scum to me at the moment. He is really good at writing posts but I felt that by him breaking down usted claim was actually worse then usted actually claiming. It was like he was trying to find out which exact role usted had or find the other PRT. If he is town then analyzing it probably wasn't wise choice because scum found out more information to help them possibly win.

VOTE: Soul

Extrapolated Eagle · Post Post #496 (ISO) » Sat Jan 23, 2016 2:27 pm

Lynch me before we lynch soul, that's how certain I am in my town read of him.

Extrapolated Eagle · Post Post #497 (ISO) » Sat Jan 23, 2016 2:29 pm

I just doubt scum would get into a discussion like that over power roles. It seems like it only makes him look scummier. And I was town reading him before that and agree with his views. I've gone to say things and then seen them better said by soul. Very not interested in his lynch today.

newbieinmafia · Post Post #498 (ISO) » Sat Jan 23, 2016 3:06 pm

Re 495: How did soul start the Ness wagon though? I and Workdawg are already voting for Ness by the time soul voted. By that, you can even say I started Ness wagon.
About EE, him hammering Ness is not scummy. Before he voted, others (Drixx, Usted and Huntress) had express the intent to hammer. It's only a matter of time before Ness is lynched.
What about Huntress feels like town? because I am not seeing it.

Re 497: EE, who are your top two scum?

Extrapolated Eagle · Post Post #499 (ISO) » Sat Jan 23, 2016 3:20 pm

Huntress is number one. Strong town are kahlan and soul, with Usted, although I agree with soul he seems a bit.. shady about the ordeal. Newbie is... nullish. Detached. As does workdawg, but I'd prefer a newbie lynch over work, I think/.