NY 193 : Werewolf Mania (GAME OVER- TOWN WIN)

[Nero Cain]

If SRMP was town I didn't see why he'd avoid the game like he did so that's why I voted.

[Nero Cain]

I have not voted b/c I am not super sure who I want dead right now and I wanted to wait until I had more time to play/think. I was (and still am) suspicious of the AJ/Zulfy slot. I thought his play resembled his play in http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=64645. So I thought about just throwing a vote down on AJ since AJ isn't really hunting but I do kinda like his stuff against Xkfyu. Distancing from buddy? So I thought about just voting Piss b/c no way that is town.


I'll tentatively buy SS' claim and I'm not super interested in lynching RC and both Robster and Almost are pretty null to me. Xfyu pushing counterwagons to save SRMP is a possibility but I'm not real gung ho on it.

I sorta feel like...if Masquerade misattributed something that Keysor said that logically he'd scum read Cobbler for it. I mean I know that town can get all OMGUSY and stuff and maybe he thinks I'm scum trying to throw shad his way? But if he thought the why would he just not say that? May he his scum and he's pissed off at me that you know I'm bringing up and interesting question that involves his slot...which is why is Masqurade not scumreading Cobbler. I'm really fairly suspicious of Masquerade for immediately fucking bending as soon as he got some flak voting SRMP.

piss
aj
Masquerade
Cobbler
^
is my personal lynch pool at the moment.

[Xkfyu]

In post 3044, Xkfyu wrote:
Nero, what's your take on Almost, pisskop, and RC?

In any given game Piss is PL worthy but nothing has really changed from earlier. I think he's prob scum. Almost is pretty meh to me. RC is going to be confusing regardless of alignment so I don't really know how to read him.

My view has actually changed on pisskop and RC since I asked that question, but thank you for answering.

I still have quite a bit of concern about both of them, but I am way more confident about Almost being scum than either of them. And if I am right about Almost, I feel like that would suggest that RC and pisskop are both town.

[Xkfyu]

for starters hes unCCed.

I've been believing his claim as well, but you do realize that all this proves is that he definitely made the kill, right? It doesn't necessarily clear him as town.

[Xkfyu]

Ok, could everyone take a look at this exchange, and give their opinion on it? I'll give mine once enough people have commented on it.

Spoiler:

Y golden rod?

I'll give you just one reason for now. I would rather concentrate on BS though before we move on to the next contestant on the show.

This is from my "text file" where I keep track of my personal remarks on players:

GR #123: Why would a third party scum do that?

Why not one of the main scum group?

They basically considered the possibility of me being a VT (as per my claim), a PR trying to survive longer, or a 3rd party scum. So, why don't I fit into the "main scum group"?? And I think we know (at least to a 95% certainty) we do not have a "scum" 3rd party (just one kill per night). I took this to be a scum-slip from a member of the "main scum group".

In post 1550, Almost50 wrote:
In post 1546, pisskop wrote:
Y golden rod?

I'll give you just one reason for now. I would rather concentrate on BS though before we move on to the next contestant on the show.

This is from my "text file" where I keep track of my personal remarks on players:
GR #123: Why would a third party scum do that? Why not one of the main scum group?

They basically considered the possibility of me being a VT (as per my claim), a PR trying to survive longer, or a 3rd party scum. So, why don't I fit into the "main scum group"?? And I think we know (at least to a 95% certainty) we do not have a "scum" 3rd party (just one kill per night). I took this to be a scum-slip from a member of the "main scum group".


Everybody just thinks i'm fekin scum.

@Almos50 What? How about a mafia traitor? Are you seriously suggesting that I'm mafia because I did not put down "He could be part of the main scum group?"

The reasoning behind my thinking was, why would someone of the main scum group want to attract attention to themselves? It doesn't make sense in my eyes unless there taking a huge gambit.

In post 1659, Golden Robster wrote:
The reasoning behind my thinking was, why would someone of the main scum group want to attract attention to themselves? It doesn't make sense in my eyes unless there taking a huge gambit.

But 3rd party scum would be totally fine with attracting attention onto themselves? Get the hell out of here with that.

VOTE: Golden Robster

The reasoning behind my thinking was, why would someone of the main scum group want to attract attention to themselves? It doesn't make sense in my eyes unless there taking a huge gambit.

But 3rd party scum would be totally fine with attracting attention onto themselves? Get the hell out of here with that.

VOTE: Golden Robster

Hah. If it resulted in the third party surviving and a sudden shift in momentum from lynching them to someone else then yeah.

The reasoning behind my thinking was, why would someone of the main scum group want to attract attention to themselves? It doesn't make sense in my eyes unless there taking a huge gambit.

But 3rd party scum would be totally fine with attracting attention onto themselves? Get the hell out of here with that.

VOTE: Golden Robster

Hah. If it resulted in the third party surviving and a sudden shift in momentum from lynching them to someone else then yeah.

The exact same thing could be said about the Mafia group.

The reasoning behind my thinking was, why would someone of the main scum group want to attract attention to themselves? It doesn't make sense in my eyes unless there taking a huge gambit.

But 3rd party scum would be totally fine with attracting attention onto themselves? Get the hell out of here with that.

VOTE: Golden Robster

Hah. If it resulted in the third party surviving and a sudden shift in momentum from lynching them to someone else then yeah.

The exact same thing could be said about the Mafia group.

Why are we arguing over pointless speculation at most?

Spoiler:

The reasoning behind my thinking was, why would someone of the main scum group want to attract attention to themselves? It doesn't make sense in my eyes unless there taking a huge gambit.

But 3rd party scum would be totally fine with attracting attention onto themselves? Get the hell out of here with that.

VOTE: Golden Robster

Hah. If it resulted in the third party surviving and a sudden shift in momentum from lynching them to someone else then yeah.

The exact same thing could be said about the Mafia group.

Why are we arguing over pointless speculation at most?

It's certainly not pointless, and I'm still on the fence about it being speculation.

However, I have noted that you are quickly trying to end the conversation.[/quote]

[Xkfyu]

I hate these tags...

It should look like this:

Spoiler:

Y golden rod?

I'll give you just one reason for now. I would rather concentrate on BS though before we move on to the next contestant on the show.

This is from my "text file" where I keep track of my personal remarks on players:

GR #123: Why would a third party scum do that?

Why not one of the main scum group?

They basically considered the possibility of me being a VT (as per my claim), a PR trying to survive longer, or a 3rd party scum. So, why don't I fit into the "main scum group"?? And I think we know (at least to a 95% certainty) we do not have a "scum" 3rd party (just one kill per night). I took this to be a scum-slip from a member of the "main scum group".

In post 1550, Almost50 wrote:
In post 1546, pisskop wrote:
Y golden rod?

I'll give you just one reason for now. I would rather concentrate on BS though before we move on to the next contestant on the show.

This is from my "text file" where I keep track of my personal remarks on players:
GR #123: Why would a third party scum do that? Why not one of the main scum group?

They basically considered the possibility of me being a VT (as per my claim), a PR trying to survive longer, or a 3rd party scum. So, why don't I fit into the "main scum group"?? And I think we know (at least to a 95% certainty) we do not have a "scum" 3rd party (just one kill per night). I took this to be a scum-slip from a member of the "main scum group".


Everybody just thinks i'm fekin scum.

@Almos50 What? How about a mafia traitor? Are you seriously suggesting that I'm mafia because I did not put down "He could be part of the main scum group?"

The reasoning behind my thinking was, why would someone of the main scum group want to attract attention to themselves? It doesn't make sense in my eyes unless there taking a huge gambit.

In post 1659, Golden Robster wrote:
The reasoning behind my thinking was, why would someone of the main scum group want to attract attention to themselves? It doesn't make sense in my eyes unless there taking a huge gambit.

But 3rd party scum would be totally fine with attracting attention onto themselves? Get the hell out of here with that.

VOTE: Golden Robster

The reasoning behind my thinking was, why would someone of the main scum group want to attract attention to themselves? It doesn't make sense in my eyes unless there taking a huge gambit.

But 3rd party scum would be totally fine with attracting attention onto themselves? Get the hell out of here with that.

VOTE: Golden Robster

Hah. If it resulted in the third party surviving and a sudden shift in momentum from lynching them to someone else then yeah.

The reasoning behind my thinking was, why would someone of the main scum group want to attract attention to themselves? It doesn't make sense in my eyes unless there taking a huge gambit.

But 3rd party scum would be totally fine with attracting attention onto themselves? Get the hell out of here with that.

VOTE: Golden Robster

Hah. If it resulted in the third party surviving and a sudden shift in momentum from lynching them to someone else then yeah.

The exact same thing could be said about the Mafia group.

The reasoning behind my thinking was, why would someone of the main scum group want to attract attention to themselves? It doesn't make sense in my eyes unless there taking a huge gambit.

But 3rd party scum would be totally fine with attracting attention onto themselves? Get the hell out of here with that.

VOTE: Golden Robster

Hah. If it resulted in the third party surviving and a sudden shift in momentum from lynching them to someone else then yeah.

The exact same thing could be said about the Mafia group.

Why are we arguing over pointless speculation at most?

The reasoning behind my thinking was, why would someone of the main scum group want to attract attention to themselves? It doesn't make sense in my eyes unless there taking a huge gambit.

But 3rd party scum would be totally fine with attracting attention onto themselves? Get the hell out of here with that.

VOTE: Golden Robster

Hah. If it resulted in the third party surviving and a sudden shift in momentum from lynching them to someone else then yeah.

The exact same thing could be said about the Mafia group.

Why are we arguing over pointless speculation at most?

It's certainly not pointless, and I'm still on the fence about it being speculation.

However, I have noted that you are quickly trying to end the conversation.

[Golden Robster]

Coming back to that exchange sherlock?

[Golden Robster]

I think we should all take a moment, breathe in and out, and proceed to lynch Aj.

[Xkfyu]

Coming back to that exchange sherlock?

Actually, I'm doing Descartes this time, and trying to discard everything I believe and start from scratch.

I've had a scum read on every remaining player in the game, at this point. Therefore, I know I was right about 2 of them. So, if I go back and revisit those scum reads, and they no longer apply (for whatever reason), then I can eliminate them as a suspect, narrow down my search.

[Xkfyu]

I think we should all take a moment, breathe in and out, and proceed to lynch Aj.

I'm not interested in lynching anyone other than Almost today.

[Golden Robster]

Coming back to that exchange sherlock?

Actually, I'm doing Descartes this time, and trying to discard everything I believe and start from scratch.

I've had a scum read on every remaining player in the game, at this point. Therefore, I know I was right about 2 of them. So, if I go back and revisit those scum reads, and they no longer apply (for whatever reason), then I can eliminate them as a suspect, narrow down my search.

Descartes meditations were focused on discarding all empirical knowledge because they couldn't be relied on and trying to find one piece of certain knowledge without experience; cogito ergo sum.

bruh I don't see how rationalism is going to get us anywhere

[Golden Robster]

Coming back to that exchange sherlock?

Actually, I'm doing Descartes this time, and trying to discard everything I believe and start from scratch.

I've had a scum read on every remaining player in the game, at this point. Therefore, I know I was right about 2 of them. So, if I go back and revisit those scum reads, and they no longer apply (for whatever reason), then I can eliminate them as a suspect, narrow down my search.

Also that kind of reasoning is wrong

being right about 2 of your scum reads doesn't make them any better
and revisiting your scum reads when they no longer apply is tantamount to saying
"oh look a town person died, better tick them off the list of potential scum"

"Time to FoS every person who is currently alive"

Dude eliminating and narrowing it down is what i've been doing with wagon placement analysis and i've come to the conclusion that there is scum in aj/masquerade

[Xkfyu]

Coming back to that exchange sherlock?

Actually, I'm doing Descartes this time, and trying to discard everything I believe and start from scratch.

I've had a scum read on every remaining player in the game, at this point. Therefore, I know I was right about 2 of them. So, if I go back and revisit those scum reads, and they no longer apply (for whatever reason), then I can eliminate them as a suspect, narrow down my search.

Descartes meditations were focused on discarding all empirical knowledge because they couldn't be relied on and trying to find one piece of certain knowledge without experience; cogito ergo sum.

bruh I don't see how rationalism is going to get us anywhere

You could be right. Perhaps irrationality IS the answer.

Coming back to that exchange sherlock?

Actually, I'm doing Descartes this time, and trying to discard everything I believe and start from scratch.

I've had a scum read on every remaining player in the game, at this point. Therefore, I know I was right about 2 of them. So, if I go back and revisit those scum reads, and they no longer apply (for whatever reason), then I can eliminate them as a suspect, narrow down my search.

Also that kind of reasoning is wrong

being right about 2 of your scum reads doesn't make them any better
and revisiting your scum reads when they no longer apply is tantamount to saying
"oh look a town person died, better tick them off the list of potential scum"

"Time to FoS every person who is currently alive"

Dude eliminating and narrowing it down is what i've been doing with wagon placement analysis and i've come to the conclusion that there is scum in aj/masquerade

That's not what I'm saying at all. I'm not currently suspecting every player alive right now. But I have at one point or another in the past. So, those times are the times that i'm going back to look at.

Take the exchange of ours that I just posted as an example. I thought it was scummy then. I still think it's scummy now. However, if something had happened since then that made me see it not scummy, I would've just forgotten about it, and not even have posted it.

I actually totally agree with you on your conclusion. I think that one out of {Aj, Masquerade} is scum, but I highly doubt they're both scum, and I'm still more convinced that Almost is scum than anyone. In fact, that is the ONE assumption I'm taking with me on my "meditation." And, unless I can find something that contradicts that assumption, I'm keeping it until he's lynched.

[Fraggernaut]

Vote Count 4.4

AJ The Epic (3) - Golden Robster, RadiantCowbells, SnarkySnowman
Nero (3) - Masquerade, Cobblerfone, Almost50
Almost50 (2) - Xkfyu, pisskop
Xkfyu (1) - AJ The Epic

Not Voting (1) - Nero Cain


With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch!

Deadline is March 4th, 2016 at 7:50 AM EST.

[Xkfyu]

There's much more to why I want Almost lynched than just that I believe him to be scum.

Based on the assumption that I'm right, and that Almost is scum, I have town reads on RC, pisskop, Aj, and now (though a little less) Nero. And, barring something completely unexpected, I don't really see those reads changing much. So, a scumAlmost flip would give me a ton of information.

[Cobblerfone]

@Xkfyu: Golden Robster's thinking in that exchange reads as not-thinking-town to me. The only thing that gives me sort-of scum-vibes in there is rather than admitting they're wrong they attempt to sidestep the question, but overall I think town.

[Almost50]

I've had a scum read on every remaining player in the game, at this point. Therefore, I know I was right about 2 of them. So, if I go back and revisit those scum reads, and they no longer apply (for whatever reason), then I can eliminate them as a suspect, narrow down my search.

I find the most proper response to the above quote is the following quote (composed & performed by one of the greatest, if not

the

greatest player of all time):

Your process of elimination is flawed. That's also a guaratee. It's proven by the fact that you have so many scum reads that you have to be wrong on some of them. And if you're wrong on some of them, you can't be confident in any of them. The process in which you come up with scum reads is necessarily flawed if it's giving you false positives.

[Xkfyu]

I've had a scum read on every remaining player in the game, at this point. Therefore, I know I was right about 2 of them. So, if I go back and revisit those scum reads, and they no longer apply (for whatever reason), then I can eliminate them as a suspect, narrow down my search.

I find the most proper response to the above quote is the following quote (composed & performed by one of the greatest, if not

the

greatest player of all time):

Your process of elimination is flawed. That's also a guaratee. It's proven by the fact that you have so many scum reads that you have to be wrong on some of them. And if you're wrong on some of them, you can't be confident in any of them. The process in which you come up with scum reads is necessarily flawed if it's giving you false positives.

Which is exactly why I'm attempting to use alternative methods. I'm glad you agree with me, though.

[Almost50]

and I'm still more convinced that Almost is scum than anyone. In fact, that is the ONE assumption I'm taking with me on my "meditation." And, unless I can find something that contradicts that assumption, I'm keeping it until he's lynched.

WOW. That's some irrefutable logic.
- "X=5 is the one assumption I'm going to build on. It thus follows X+4 =9, X-3=2 & X*2=10".
+ "But, my friend .. X=/=5. In fact; X=7"
- "Not true. If so, how come X+4 =9, X-3=2 & X*2=10. I've already shown you how I reached these results, and thus X MUST be equal to 5."

Well, her's MY proposition: IF you eventually flip town; then I hereby promise you that if ever I'm scum in a game with you, I'll never push for your lynch or support a night kill on you. You're the most precious tool any scum team could ever be blessed with their mere existence on the opposing side.

[Masquerade]

Here are all the posts by Nero right around/after ika's claim that I have problems with:

Spoiler:

I CC now fucking die scum.

Nero why can't you vote?

Twice now the mod has you listed as a no voter yet you had votes cast both times?

hes scum. if you want to wagon that i can be happy to oblige. i could prob also get silver to join up

this is p much why I'm ok with getting rid of Ika. Like me being voteless (wich is now proven false) is no way alignment indicative. I mean I am P SURE that the only reason he's calling me scum is b/c he's mad I called him out but if he's not going to play then he offers no benifit whatsoever to town.

I'm not a seer btw, just fed up with Ika. Though it is odd that there's barely a wagon on him and he's wigging out...

I think he's prob scum trying to out the real seer.

also silver can die after he flips scum.

i mean i cna link you back to metal gear again

TBF, its hard to find scum when half the town plays like shit but I mean ok...like the whole being immature and taking pot shots at me only makes me want to kill you more.

honestly, I'm a bit torn on Ika's seer claim. I'll post more about this later but just in case there IS a real seer out there dO NOT CC ika.

ika flips scum, who do you want dead Ric?

fuck you Ika. Like honestly bro? If all you are going to do is sit there and whine about how "bad" I am then I don't even give a shit if you are town.

like have you ever done well in a game? The only two players that think you are any good are Titus and Silver and everyone knows how much of a hot mess they are.

You should help me lynch Ika unless you'd like to be lynched today.

I already voted for him.

good

my vote is not moving from Ika. Though I'd also be up for a force replace.

You think Blackstar's scum, I think Blackstar's scum, y don't u do something on that front instead of pressuring a heavy PR claim.

b/c I don't want Ika here if all he's going to do is sit there and fuss about how "bad" my play is. Also I don't really buy his claim.

but he's not gonna get quicklynched in 6 hours so like WTF?

I'm assuming that if Ika claimed seer he's at L-1 or at least L-2 so everyone can chill their frigid butts. we're not lynching seer claim.

Ika had 4 votes on him. My worry is that he realized the heat on him was growing and fakeclaimed seer to out the real seer.

also

unvote:ika

We aren't lynching any of Ika or Almost today: Its ABR or Ric.

With Blackstar, Cobalt and Snowman as maybes.

He's never pro-town regardless of alignment yet he's also easy to read?

I think I have an ok bead on Ika's meta. I know I know. "META CAN BE MESSED WITH!"

but

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=55&t=60340

and

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=56&t=61893

is what I associate with a scum Ika.

As for his claim-I think there is some possibility that he fakeclaims seer to out any real seer but I'm willing to sit on it for a day or two. If he IS a seer then there's gonna be scum on his wagon.

[Masquerade]

I sorta feel like...if Masquerade misattributed something that Keysor said that logically he'd scum read Cobbler for it. I mean I know that town can get all OMGUSY and stuff and maybe he thinks I'm scum trying to throw shad his way? But if he thought the why would he just not say that? May he his scum and he's pissed off at me that you know I'm bringing up and interesting question that involves his slot...which is why is Masqurade not scumreading Cobbler. I'm really fairly suspicious of Masquerade for immediately fucking bending as soon as he got some flak voting SRMP.

This reads so different from other posts you make and I feel like you're trying to convince others to scumread me and trying really really hard to not be the first on my wagon because you know I'm flipping town.
Why don't you address your questions to me? Why do you ask this of other people and why are you talking about me as if I am not around?

[Masquerade]

Now vote Nero with me.

[Xkfyu]

WOW. That's some irrefutable logic.
- "X=5 is the one assumption I'm going to build on. It thus follows X+4 =9, X-3=2 & X*2=10".
+ "But, my friend .. X=/=5. In fact; X=7"
- "Not true. If so, how come X+4 =9, X-3=2 & X*2=10. I've already shown you how I reached these results, and thus X MUST be equal to 5."

Thank you. I'm glad I'm correct.

WOW. That's some irrefutable logic.
- "X=5 is the one assumption I'm going to build on. It thus follows X+4 =9, X-3=2 & X*2=10".
+ "But, my friend .. X=/=5. In fact; X=7"
- "Not true. If so, how come X+4 =9, X-3=2 & X*2=10. I've already shown you how I reached these results, and thus X MUST be equal to 5."

Thank you. I'm glad to see that I'm correct with my assumption.

Well, her's MY proposition: IF you eventually flip town; then I hereby promise you that if ever I'm scum in a game with you, I'll never push for your lynch or support a night kill on you. You're the most precious tool any scum team could ever be blessed with their mere existence on the opposing side.

Here's the thing. You had better flip scum, because if this is your town game, you will be a D1 Policy Lynch for me in every game going forward. Your WIFOM-riddled posts and invalid logic are nothing but huge distractions for town.

[Masquerade]

Or Xk I honestly don't care who goes first.

[Xkfyu]

Or Xk I honestly don't care who goes first.

Let's just lynch me then. There is a lot of empty suspicion floating around on me (ie. lots of people expressing suspicion about me, but not really saying why, and not voting for me). Let's get some votes on me and see how it plays out.