New York 196: My Game, My Flavor Mafia (Mafia Win)

[implosion]

Good morning, friends.

[implosion]

Unfortunately the only think I'm getting from this RVS is that Mirhawk/Transcend aren't scum together.

People other than Dunnstral should do interesting things.

[implosion]

oh fucking hell he subbed out. i planned to RVS him the entire time.

VOTE: Mirhawk

I doubt he'd have claimed this if they were scum together.

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VOTE: Sickofit1138

[implosion]

Indeed.

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This is my first game where I don't know what the roles are, it's a bit unsettling.

Same. Is it known what all the roles are with this game or is it designed to be hidden?

I also find the no vote troubling. We absolutely need to lynch someone day 1. That being said, I do read that Performer is willing and ready to vote for someone. Just not now.

It is not known what roles are in the game. However, we do know that the game abides by Mafiascum's rules for normal games. This significantly restricts what roles can be in the game.

[implosion]

Just the generic overjustified RVS vote tell.

Nothing particularly robust.

[implosion]

It's a very slight towntell.

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It's something that will obviously make him stick out relative to other people, so it's something scum are somewhat likely to avoid.

Why do you find it scummy?

[implosion]

So this game is Honey Bunches of Clusterfuck already.

What makes you say this? It seems pretty tame to me.

[implosion]

3 pages is pretty minimal for a large game more than 12 hours in.

Unvote

VOTE: Zachstralkita

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I'm willing to call Titus, Transcend and nominally Dunn town I guess although Dunn's is contingent on how I feel about how he continues his play. Sick's vote isn't bad.

Zach's few posts actually feel pretty significantly scummy to me.

[implosion]

Can I make a formal request that Zach be the first official wagon of this game? Thank you all for your cooperation .

[implosion]

If you're referring to 82, that post doesn't factor in to 84 at all.

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Wake, that's sort of a strange question to ask me given that I have elucidated several gut feelings.

[implosion]

At the time I asked, it means I want to know more.

What precisely do you want that I didn't give in 81?

[implosion]

Almost50 gets a townread mostly for 113.
Titus's response to Wake is consistent with how I'd expect town to react.

[implosion]

Is NAI not alignment indicative?

[implosion]

I have zero reason to wait until you and he are done exchanging, because you can easily see my post in the feed and respond back eventually.

I agree with you here, but you seem to be ignoring the fact that Titus does have good reason not to answer you immediately if she's currently drilling someone else to determine their alignment and answering your question would interfere with that process. In particular you say that she can respond "eventually" and yet earlier you were hounding her for not responding immediately.

[implosion]

pokes head out shyly

[implosion]

Well, V/LA is the perfect " NOT GET LYNCHED" card.

It's also y'know the thing people do when they're on vacation or have limited access.

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and it's not like some player in a sea of 19 players with no one having their eyes on them in particular is going to pull out their "NOT GET LYNCHED" card one RL day into d1.

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In all seriousness though, Zach, are you questioning the integrity of his V/LA? Because that's really the only reading I can get out of the first sentence of 161.

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It's just that phrasing. "NOT GET LYNCHED" card. It's like you're implying it's some pocket tactic that he's pulling out to preemptively dodge pressure which is just such an unlikely line of thought.

I just really don't like the direction of criticism towards the declaration of v/la. Or the fact that when I question you about it you become more vague and say that "his aura is pinging you."

[implosion]

Nah, he's right. shannon is probably town. 175 isn't an argument that I think scum are particularly likely to be the first to make in this kind of game, the follow-up in 184 also is a post that I see scum as unlikely to make.

And @Nos idk a lot of people have said that over the years. I think I'm one of those players for whom some people just naturally read the tone of my posts as scummy irrespective of my alignment.

[implosion]

I mean, it could be, but I'm inclined to see it as town.

[implosion]

Zach, can you clarify exactly what you meant with 161? I understand (although disagree with) the point that you'd have liked for him to say more before he disappeared. But the first sentence still doesn't make sense to me. And I still don't understand what the post was about if you were actually only scumreading him for tonal/gut reasons (which is the only way I can interpret "aura", correct me if I'm wrong).

[implosion]

I mean, it could be, but I'm inclined to see it as town.

of course u are cause she said it about your #1 scumread!!!!!!

I mean, I would be pretty surprised if you two were scum together ~_~

[implosion]

that isn't what statistically means unfortunately.

Zach i'm like pretty close to townreading you. I just need you to give me some more to work with.

[implosion]

Not only that, but him saying his tone is typically scumread by others, is also frankly weird.

I got pretty aggravatingly mislynched in a recent game over what felt like just people saying I felt off with no other good justification (particularly I note that Kmd pushes me for "a lack of perceived genuineness") and I'm still a bit salty over it.

It was mostly aggravating because it was like the first game in forever where I felt really good about my reads and it turned out that they were really good and I got lynched anyway, but that's beside the point.

How does that work? You're the sole benefactor of my wagon.

It works because you've been doing things that want to make me townread you but there are still things I'm trying to see the town motivation for, hence my line of questioning.

[implosion]

Yeah fine w/e. I just need to figure out who the next flavor of wagon will be. Which will take a bit bc I have a dentist appointment in 20 minutes.

Zach's reaction to his wagon reads genuine. Posts like 227 feel like a consistent reaction to being incorrectly wagoned.

[implosion]

And I don't think that sickofit is a good wagon atm. His stuff feels tonally really weird but I'm not convinced it's in a scummy way and almost everything he's posted has been taking stances on people with reasoning so I'm not keen on that wagon atm.

[implosion]

Unvote

VOTE: boem

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My vote on Wake is serious based on group dynamic.

I find this pretty scummy considering he hasn't even posted, so he has not contributed to the group dynamic.

Then vote me.

For someone who was thrilled about joining and recruited a few of us, why hasn't he posted? Why has there been so much defense of him (chainsaws, painting as a quicklynch)?

Who knows?

Probably because you are voting to lynch a person upon whom

you have zero information

.

That is the definition of

not scumhunting

.

I mean it isn't zero information... the information that existed was that he had not yet posted. It might not be particularly good/strong information but it is information.

[implosion]

I also need to figure out a way to sort Nos; in the game performer mentioned he was a scumread of mine who scum killed n1 and iirc part of it was lack of content. But I'm actually a little skeptical of both of those two right now. Performer is (at least not yet) giving me the same :townvibes: from that game. Though there was the NL vote which is still a bit town but not strongly. W/e I guess I probably shouldn't worry too much about him if he's town he'll make it apparent to me. But Nos is worrisome.

[implosion]

@Zach, what makes you so sure shannon is scum? Several people marked her as town, this is a potentially dangerous move for you.

Why did you choose to ask this question and why did you phrase it this way?

[implosion]

@Zach, what makes you so sure shannon is scum? Several people marked her as town, this is a potentially dangerous move for you.

Why did you choose to ask this question and why did you phrase it this way?

Mafia knows each other -> if shannon is not mafia they can mark her as town -> if shannon is mislynched they blame Zach

What is so hard to understand there?

I just don't understand why you felt the desire to warn Zach of this. I find it noteworthy that you phrased it as "this is a potentially dangerous move for you," rather than something like "why are you putting yourself in danger like this." I don't normally give other people advice or warnings like this in the course of my play. Do you want him not to be scumreading shannon? Why is it helpful to you for him to be aware of this "danger?" What if shannon

is

scum? If you yourself have a nullread on shannon this just seems like such a weird post to make, preemptively warning someone that they might get blamed if someone is mislynched when you are not townreading that person in particular and there's not a ton of pressure on them so that them being lynched quickly is unlikely.

[implosion]

Honestly I forget who you are. I have never played with you .

Okay, I'm confused now.

Nosferatu, do you recall the game where Firebringer was scum with Xtoxm Traitor, and what's his face as the 3rd scum? There's something strange going on here and I 'd like for you to try to look at that game. I'm going to dig into that game as well (moderated by chamber). I think that may help us in discerning alignment for Mr. X.

I'm the only other person in this game who was also in that game... I assumed you were referring to me here.

[implosion]

podo seems pretty town to me.
I don't have any read on peregrinev from what he's posted.

[implosion]

this is a potentially dangerous move for you.

Thanks for reminding me, implosion.

This pinged to me sketch as fuck.

I got Macho role modifier

What the fuck is this?

I got Macho role modifier

What the fuck is this?

To clarify, I don't mean mechanically. I know what this claim means.

I'm wondering why the fuck you would claim it. There is literally no town motivation for claiming macho here accept for some elaborate gambit, so any smart player can just ignore it.

All of these posts read town. And also 329 which I forgot to hit multiquote on.

[implosion]

We both fos Boem

oh i don't fos him in particular i just want a better read on him.

Zach/shannon/sick are town. Just isoed dunn and I wanted to be able to call him scum so that I could make a significant competing wagon but eh I don't really feel it, he isn't that strongly town but some of the things he's said feel town to me.

Looking at the rest now.

[implosion]

Mirhawk actually could be scum. On second read i don't like 62 and 88. 62 is sort of busywork, commenting on something happening in the game without giving any relevant information (i.e. reads). 88 continues this by failing to clarify Mirhawk's stance on Performer's NL vote. Mirhawk mentions that they didn't call it town or scum, but does not clarify explicitly what they thought it was or why they found it noteworthy to mention that a lack of a vote would accomplish the same thing as a NL vote. The vote on sick feels like one of the weaker votes on the wagon.

[implosion]

Nos is

probably

town if I had to hazard a guess. The focus on vibes from me seems like an odd thing to be the only thing he's mentioned as scum.

Idk about performer yet.

[implosion]

Er wait there is still the nl vote thing from performer that I found townish. Well w/e I think I made my stance on him fairly clear in the post on him and nos.

[implosion]

Townreads at this point are:

{Lapsa, podoboq, zach, sickofit, almost50, shannon, transcend, titus, dunnstral, performer, nosferatu}

Very vaguely in order of most to least confident.

This leaves a pool of (in no particular order) {wake, agar, mirhawk, boem, peregrine, airick, varsoon}.

[implosion]

Townreads at this point are:

{Lapsa, podoboq, zach, sickofit, almost50, shannon, transcend, titus, dunnstral, performer, nosferatu}

Very vaguely in order of most to least confident.

This leaves a pool of (in no particular order) {wake, agar, mirhawk, boem, peregrine, airick, varsoon}.

Could you justify why Lapsa is such a high townread? I just don't see having him far above null with how generally useless his posts have been.

I rather doubt scum would have randomly claimed macho.

[implosion]

Looking back i have absolutely no idea why i called titus town.

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Yeah sure why not.
VOTE: Titus

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I kind of wanted to let Mirhawk have some space but the wagon tempts me.

Unvote

VOTE: Mirhawk

I'll reassess Titus later but my gut says she's town now from what little skimming i've done.

[implosion]

Lamist is "Look at me I'm so town."

[implosion]

Haven't really felt like following this game with the pace it's going at. Especially with so many large swathes of posts in a row by people I'm already townreading.

I'll probably do some more work tomorrow or something but I really don't need another 3 pages of Dunn and Zach saying things.

I somewhat question Varsoon's asking how anyone could possibly see Dunn's play as town; I think even if you see his play as scummy it should be pretty easy to see why people townread him.

[implosion]

I really don't care if they actually are masons there's like no reason at all that either Titus or Dunnstral should be in the lynch pool today at this point.

[implosion]

I am very curious as to Varsoon's next few posts especially given the odd prescience of 713. Not that it means anything.

[implosion]

Looking back I'm really not a fan of AGar's content post. He attacks Titus largely for pushing with empty reasoning, when he himself in his post gives very little reasoning for much of what he says (he cites posts 89, 367-368, 370-376, 387 and possibly more as bad or terrible or etc but gives no justification, as though those 10+ posts are self-evidently scummy [which they aren't]). In assessing Titus's 447, he immediately jumps to the worst possible interpretation:

Are you really saying because you did something one time in a game when you were scum, that this means he's scum?

when it's fairly evident, I think, that Titus is simply saying that it

can

be scum and attacking it for reasons other than her having done it as scum once (calling it LAMIST) together with the fact that

Titus had already been pushing Zach

which pretty clearly indicates that Titus wasn't pushing Zach with the logic of "I did this once as scum therefore you're doing it as scum." This jumping to the worst possible interpretation of things, IMO, indicates a lack of intellectual honesty in evaluating information, which in turn indicates scum.

[implosion]

How so?

[implosion]

Implosion read too much into that statement

I analyzed a number of things in that post.

did NOT accompany it with a vote.

What exactly do you think an AGar vote will accomplish right now?
There's no wagon on him and he's V/LA.

[implosion]

Look at Implosions read trajectory on me. Look at votes on me.

My vote on you really wasn't based on a read (450 wasn't me scumreading you, it was me saying i couldn't remember why i had townread you); it was based on a wagon forming composed of several of my townreads. I think volatile wagons are generally good on d1 and I wasn't doing much else with my vote (it had been dormant on boem for the exact same reason, actually, that I was voting him so that Transcend's vote would have more impact to see what might happen).

[implosion]

Sheep your mason partner please, your vote is on VARSOON.

Implosion read too much into that statement

I analyzed a number of things in that post.

did NOT accompany it with a vote.

What exactly do you think an AGar vote will accomplish right now?
There's no wagon on him and he's V/LA.

this is not a valid defense

I mean, I'm not sure what you want from me if you're calling it "not a valid defense." That seems to imply that you think there would be a valid defense, but that my post isn't sufficient.

Me having read too much into AGar's post is subjective; me seeing what I wanted to see is possible (AGar is part of a somewhat small group of people who I have yet to form townreads on, so I may be somewhat biased towards seeing his posts as scummy); I explained why there's no reason for me to accompany the fos with a vote.

[implosion]

Third, no one is confirmed unless by the game moderator.

The fact that they are not

technically

moderator-confirmed or that it is technically possible that they are gambiting is, in fact, not a reason to have either of them in the lynch pool today at all.

[implosion]

Was that a serious mason claim...

Unfortunately. I obviously wasn't going to let her get lynched

but whatever

now

If you and Titus truly were Masons you wouldn't allow her to be lynched under any circumstances.

Is this seriously how you're reading this post?

[implosion]

Like, I'm willing to believe that you read that post and interpreted it that way, but when you saw that a claimed mason was claiming not to care if their partner was lynched, was your first instinct really "this confirms that they're not really masons" rather than "hm, I bet I misread that"?

[implosion]

Zach
Implosion pushes Zach early wanting him to be the "first wagon of the game" 8481 says that Zach is scummy but has no reasons. 165 and surrounding are hostile to Zach questioning VLAs (which town shouldn't do anyway but the point here is Implosion is hostile to Zach. VOICE OF MOD: 236 is a filler question. 239 Zach is close to townreading Zach (doesn't say why). 258 implosion says that Zach's response in 227 is consistent with town being improperly wagoned. Again, no reason.

This is in fact a timeline of my Zach read... you don't appear to see any of the context around anything though. I often say things without reasons early on in the game, and am always willing to supply those reasons if asked. Although you should have been able to glean from my 78 my reason for thinking he was scum at that point (that he was overstating how active the game was). 82 didn't give me a townread, but it did give me an inkling that putting Zach under pressure would allow me to read him better; hence, I asked for a wagon. I also hardly see how you're getting a tone of "hostility" from my posting; I think from 165 it's fairly clear that I felt I was misinterpreting him and was trying to figure out how. 236 is hardly a "filler question"; I still hadn't gotten an answer for how I was misinterpreting him, and I needed to be sure that I wasn't interpreting it correctly because that interpretation didn't make sense and it was legitimately the main thing that was giving me scummy vibes from him at that point (contingent on me not misinterpreting it). I would say that calling something consistent with town being improperly wagoned is a reason; it's not an in-depth reason, but it is a reason. Again, I'm always happy to elaborate on any reasoning I may have given; in this case, I felt like the emotional content of 227, in particular the extent of outrage at his being wagoned, felt consistent and like it wasn't being manufactured.

Saying that me pushing Zach was "mirroring a popular opinion" is kind of objectively wrong? I was the

first

one to vote Zach after shannon's rvs (so me calling him scummy is in no way whatsoever me mirroring a popular opinion). After me, Nos, Dunn, you, and Performer voted Zach. And IMMEDIATELY after that wagon reaches 6 people, by far the largest in the game, I say that I'm starting to townread Zach. I honestly have no idea what game you're reading, Titus, in which all of my stances apart from my sickofit stance are "mirroring popular opinions."

With regards to you, my opinions did somewhat follow popular opinion. Sue me. I have no idea what you're saying when you say "I'm one of the closest players that he's given reasons for in this game," either. Me talking about AGar had nothing to do with you, either; you just happened to be the subject of his post. I'd be criticizing that post no matter who it was attacking, I'm not criticizing it for attacking someone who is town, i'm criticizing it for the content. The timing of it with me townreading you/your mason claim are coincidental; I had some motivation to do something with this game, so I went back to my list of people I was townreading and started looking to sort the people I hadn't yet sorted. I looked at boem's iso and nothing stuck out and then I looked at AGar's iso and saw the wall post, looked at it, and saw a lot of lines of "this is bad" with no explanation, so I looked at it in more depth.

[implosion]

In other news Zach is really, really transparently town.

[implosion]

I honestly have no idea how to read anything Wake has posted as alignment-indicative.

[implosion]

This is a serious move. One that needs to be explained. Please, if you would, share your thoughts on this.

Idk what you mean, it's pretty straightforward... pushing Titus after the mason claim is, on face, completely pointless. Not everyone follows the philosophy of "question literally everything"; I, for example, would claim that there are far too many things happening in a typical game of mafia to question them all without having a disheveled, impossible-to-follow game. Especially with something like a masonry claim, which is something that will conveniently sort itself out over nights when the masons die, and if they don't, then the question can be addressed later.

I am willing to see shannon as scum for the jump, potentially. I think that kind of taking things at face value that would lead to thinking that someone is scummy for continuing to push the masons is characteristic of how I would play as scum when I was fairly new to the site. But I don't think it's particularly strong.

Also, in most cases, it is in the town's interest to have investigative PRs hitting scum... guilties are much more useful than innocents. It depends on the investigative PR but etc.

[implosion]

lol at Transcend's last three posts in sequence.

[implosion]

it is peculiar that no wagon has received critical mass.
normally there would have been few L-1 already

This is untrue in a game 5 RL days into day 1 in my experience.

Having multiple wagons reach L-1 by this point is an exception.

@wake, eh. There are other things from shannon that still dissuade me from a scumread (I think her aggression towards Zach, and continuing to push it even after it was described as a policy lynch, is somewhat unlikely from new scum who wouldn't want to do anything that stands out). And the way she phrased the "please don't investigate me" sentence feels like she's a townie who genuinely wants to contribute more but is being bogged down by the game which is pretty chaotic (I was getting bogged down by it pretty hard for most of yesterday).

I do need to figure out somewhere useful to put my vote though.

[implosion]

Oh and meant to say this: although having multiple wagons reach L-1 by this point is an exception to the norm, there have been several wagons that have coalesced and fallen apart. Problem is the only two that still exist as of the last vote count are on masons (unless you count the two votes on me which no longer both exist).

[implosion]

Vote your gut implosion, not like it will hammer.

I mean, there are a solid half-dozen single votes on people right now that are doing basically nothing (one of these is mine but I didn't realize the wagon had dissipated until I looked at the vote count while making my last post).
Me throwing out another such vote onto AGar will not do anything useful right now and I'm not confident enough that he's scum to want to push other people into forming a wagon.
I need to try to sort the people that I haven't gotten a read on yet, and see if there's anyone who I feel strongly enough about to push.

[implosion]

I have a very strong townread on Lapsa and a moderately strong townread on Sick.

[implosion]

Well I'm sorry you feel that way.

This leaves a pool of (in no particular order) {wake, agar, mirhawk, boem, peregrine, airick, varsoon}.

I think from this pool boem is town (I agree with whoever called 959 town, and some of his other recent posting pings town as well, e.g. 964, 966).

Airick is null, Wake is impossible to read.

Varsoon eh. Don't feel strongly about him yet. But I think I'll be able to get a read on him from a bit more posting.

I can see peregrine scum, although I don't have any particularly strong reasons atm beyond gut. I've explained why I think AGar is scum for the wallpost. I found Mirhawk's early posts scummy and still do on reread but need to look at his other stuff more since he's actually been active.

VOTE: PeregrineV

[implosion]

I've literally never seen the acronym before idk what to tell you

[implosion]

Like, why would I lie about not knowing what an acronym means?

[implosion]

Like, why would I lie about not knowing what an acronym means?

I find it very difficult to believe you don't know what NAI means. I've seen you before in other type of games . You have plenty of experience.

Literally though like, why do you think I would lie about this? What do I gain by lying about knowing what an acronym means?

[implosion]

implosion remind me again, why do you tr me? Is it just the no-lynch post?
Do you normally play off tone, gut, and feeling? I don't recall my skim of one of your games, to focus on that .

That and a few other things here and there at this point. And also I suspect I'll be able to read you fairly well as the game goes on so I'm not really worrying about your slot right now.

I think a lot of my reads are obtained by using tone/gut/feeling to identify which things strike me as scummy/towny, and then reasoning to determine what about those posts struck me in those ways.

[implosion]

Lamist is "Look at me I'm so town."

See what I mean, imp. You don't know NAI yet you know LAMIST. There's something fishy about you . I'm not exactly sure what it is but I'm going to place you in my FoS pile.

See, I thought it was that. But I wasn't sure. So to be sure I looked it up on the wiki. I also thought I knew what NAI meant (hence asking if it was not alignment indicative, rather than just asking what it was) so I did the same. Guess what happens if you look up NAI.

[implosion]

@Performer: PRs are important, but the site-meta trends to favoring mechanics far heavier than rhetoric, so much so that the rhetoric of the game often becomes superseded by the mechanics. Claiming masons only renders any sort of leverage to the slots because people think the mechanical advantage of (possible) masons is stronger than any rhetoric that could be thrown down. Even if they are lying about being masons, the fear that we'd lose such a mechanical advantage keeps players from voting there, even when the claimed masons are bringing garbage to the table, rhetorically.

This is such a misrepresentation of why we shouldn't vote the masons.

-The odds of it being a scum gambit are so horrifically low. The risk/reward of claiming masons on d1 as scum is absolutely terrible.
-They are outed as power roles; they are, therefore, likely to be killed at night, meaning we don't have to try to sort them at all.
-If by some miracle they are scum, they will keep surviving nights and they will become more and more likely scum candidates as the days go by, allowing us much more confidence in sorting them later
-If we lynch other scum in that time, then the more scum we lynch, the more unlikely the masons are to be lying, making it easier to sort them later
-At massclaim, if there is a huge abundance of power being claimed, they also become easier to sort then

I'd like to note that by

far

the most important of these points is the first; the rest are just supplementary to it. There are so many reasons that claiming masons on day one has astronomically higher risk than reward for scum.

[implosion]

I HAVEN'T READ ANYTHING.
WHAT'S UP MY N-WORDS?
DON'T WORRY, I'M TOWN
I'VE GOT YOUR BACK.

I've got your 'back' is the clue to look at things from back to front.
What's up my N-words is actually referencing Mason, because if read from back to front, it's Nosam.
Furthermore, in my last game as a Mason (Cohen Brothers Mafia), I was not town despite being in a Masonry.
That's why I said "Don't worry, I'm town" here.

Why would I make such a post without reading anything?
What point does it serve?
Purely role-crumbing.

This post is nominally even worth acknowledging.

[implosion]

@Performer: PRs are important, but the site-meta trends to favoring mechanics far heavier than rhetoric, so much so that the rhetoric of the game often becomes superseded by the mechanics. Claiming masons only renders any sort of leverage to the slots because people think the mechanical advantage of (possible) masons is stronger than any rhetoric that could be thrown down. Even if they are lying about being masons, the fear that we'd lose such a mechanical advantage keeps players from voting there, even when the claimed masons are bringing garbage to the table, rhetorically.

-The odds of it being a scum gambit are so horrifically low. The risk/reward of claiming masons on d1 as scum is absolutely terrible.
.

Scum Dunnstral and Titus (Ditus if you will, the other one sounds kinda wrong)'s reward has far exceeded the risk if they gain your trust Day 1. Which they have.

Except, the chances of you being scum with them is moderate.

100% false
they will lose my trust iteratively as days go on
and then

scum are down two players with almost nothing to gain

[implosion]

scum don't really give a shit if they're lynched d1 or d4
if they're lynched, they're lynched
there are advantages to being lynched later if they're power roles but those advantages are very nominal relative to just surviving

[implosion]

i honestly have no idea how this is happening
like i really don't want to agree with titus when she insults the collective intelligence level of the town.
but SO MUCH FUCKING RHETORIC against CLAIMED MASONS on day one.
god dammit.
I don't even care if they are scum. there's no reason at all to try to lynch them today.

[implosion]

2) " as days go on " this implies you will be alive as the days go on, which a townie certainly cannot know because we don't know who's going to try to kill us and when, and then we're dead. Thanks for scumclaiming though.

JFC.
i'm not saying just how i am playing
i'm saying how town should play here.

3) nothing to gain is false, I'm sure Ditus could have accomplished a lot if myself and Varsoon hadn't let this little farce go on.

I'm sorry but there's no way that i'm believing that you're actually claiming masons after 1344.

[implosion]

I don't even care if they are scum. there's no reason at all to try to lynch them today.

Oh man, oh man... you actually did it. You actually said those words in that sequential order. RIP

key word
today

[implosion]

if you read literally any of what i say in an unbiased way (i.e.,

actually try to understand the points that i am making rather than trying to attribute scum motivation to them before understanding them

) then that will make sense

[implosion]

And even if you are actually claiming to also be masons I still don't see that as a reason to lynch them; multiple masonries is not impossible, and all the more information we'll get from each night phase.

[implosion]

this is still a blatant anti-town post, if you have scum on day 1 page 1 post 2 you nail those fuckers to the wall. you do not let them thrive.

it has been a really fucking long time since i ahve raged in a mafia game but you are seriously bringing me close

[implosion]

it's literally like before you've read the words in my post, you assume that what i've written is scum motivated and then apply that to what i've written

zach if you are town for fuck's sake have some intellectual honesty and try to fucking understand the points i'm making

[implosion]

So, are you going to let every scum who takes a high-risk, barely-ever-seen gambit fool you? Way to play right into their hand. You're exactly the kind of player I'd love to play against as scum.

as i have explained 6-7 times in the past page.
If we lynch them on day four
they haven't fooled us!
they just delayed their lynches
and we don't care about that
because dead scum is dead scum.

[implosion]

Not at all. If town, the nature of their claimed roles (Masons) informs the nightkill by letting the scum team know that they are not the powerful night action PRs (such as cop, doc, etc.) and so their chances of being killed are VERY low, especially because their play isn't helping town at all. Stack that on top of the fact that there is already seeded doubt about their roles and they've got a clear check to cash all the way to the LYLO line. This plays heavily into their favor as scum. We have to lynch them now or, otherwise, we'll never know outside of a cop clear or vig kill.

this is somewhat true. A lot of what i'm saying is really because i think there never should have been any doubt in their claims, at least not until later. Except for your last sentence. Your last sentence is bullshit. We can read them on future days just like we can read anyone else.

If they are both scum, our chances of hitting scum with a lynch plummet significantly. Also, this logic is flawed, because other scum being lynched does not make their claim more or less valid at all.

First part of this is true. Second part is not. The logic is simple and statistical; in fact based on the first line you wrote, you can actually see it as following from conditional probability if you know any probability. If they're scum, then the probability of us lynching other scum is low; therefore every time we lynch other scum, the probability of them being scum goes down. But the first point is valid.

You're assuming a massclaim will happen AND you're assuming that you can outguess the setup/mod. Garbage.

I have honestly found setup spec post-massclaim to be the most accurate means of scumhunting empirically. And a massclaim will eventually happen.

Yes, which makes it an effective gambit.
I just counter-claimed masons.
So who is scum, dickhole?
You only get to be wrong once.

Again,
1) i don't believe you (1344 is just lol),
2) there can be multiple masonries.

[implosion]

So, are you going to let every scum who takes a high-risk, barely-ever-seen gambit fool you? Way to play right into their hand. You're exactly the kind of player I'd love to play against as scum.

as i have explained 6-7 times in the past page.
If we lynch them on day four
they haven't fooled us!
they just delayed their lynches
and we don't care about that
because dead scum is dead scum.

Show me another game where you lynched claimed masons, please.

show me another game where scum claimed masons together and it worked out, please.

[implosion]

i've never lynched claimed masons bc i've never seen scum claim masons

[implosion]

sorry for not ever mislynching town masons i guess.

[implosion]

like seriously. i don't even know. can someone sane come into the thread please.

[implosion]

Can you give me a tl;dr (or a full case, or just some links to past posts) on transcend-scum? He is one of the people I listed as a townread that I feel relatively weak about now. But I'm somewhat inclined against wake right now.

[implosion]

one thing is for sure - there's a connection between varsoon and zach

You serious?

and you aren't?

oh man... Titus gonna rip your head off

...?

I'ma sking if you really see a "connection" between them when it's obvious they were faking and memeing

@dunnstral are you seriously proposing town double fake counterclaim?

he is and he's most likely correct

[implosion]

I mean, i'm not confident they're both town, but they aren't masons (and probably aren't scum together).

It's not like they "randomly figured out to fakeclaim together as masons." Look at their joint ISO starting at 1337; the progression of posts makes complete sense with them having not coordinated anything in advance. Varsoon's 1337 is like, hey we should fakeclaim masons together, and then zach's next post is like okay sure why not. Varsoon literally said in 1344 that "N-words" was a crumb for mason because mason spelled backwards is nosam. It's very overtly a farce.

[implosion]

Personally it makes me lean town on Varsoon a bit, though. Not strongly.

[implosion]

Wait seriously? Masons are ridiculously strong town power, and you think there'd be 2 sets of 2 in a fucking 19 player game?

Hoooooly shit.

Two things.
One, yes, I do? It's 19 player game. There's gonna be a lot of power. I also disagree that they're a "ridiculously strong town power." I mean just fucking look at what's happening today with people not believing the mason claim. Two, I don't actually think this [read: i think varsoon/zach are BSing]

Why put off for tomorrow what you can do today?

Because literally any of the like 10 reasons I gave in my last couple dozen posts. I'm not fucking explaining it again.

This has got to be the stupidest game of mafia ever.

Scum please dayvig me and save me from this. This game is a chore given scum and dumb town spam.

Getting anyone to work together in this is impossible.

So fucking much.
Jesus christ.

[implosion]

podoboq.

They're not going to un-claim masons before the lynch.

Assuming they're town, they're fakeclaiming it so that they can get dunnstral/titus lynched because they have personal scumreads on them and they are arrogant enough players to believe that their reads are enough to warrant a fakeclaim like this to get them lynched.

[implosion]

Like this whole game is just fucking full of arrogance and it's the biggest thing that's pissing me off. Everyone thinks their reads are better than everyone else's and no one is willing to compromise on anything because of that.

[implosion]

Like this whole game is just fucking full of arrogance and it's the biggest thing that's pissing me off. Everyone thinks their reads are better than everyone else's and no one is willing to compromise on anything because of that.

You're about displaying what I am feeling 50 pages ago.

You're somewhat guilty of this too. But you're trying to compromise so I can't really complain.

[implosion]

Dunn/Zach you have between 650 to 800 posts between you, can you both cool it?

+this
I think you two are town but you seriously don't realize how much you are hurting the town with so many posts.

Titus/dunn/zach are all town. Varsoon probably is too. But seriously. This whole mason shit has made this game unplayable. I'm experienced enough to follow it. But you see how like, a

lot

of people are unable to contribute meaningfully?

You two really need to post a lot less so that we can y'know get content from other people.

[implosion]

Why do people still think that varsoon and zach are actually masons >_>

[implosion]

Being annoyed at Titus's play is totally justified. I'll agree it was bad play (for the reasons I mentioned earlier about arrogance, arrogantly thinking your own reads are better than everyone else's and thinking that gives you the clout to do something like this). But I don't think it's scummy at all.

[implosion]

looks like you know she's town and you're white-knighting her.

Or, hear me out.
I'm town and think she's town!

[implosion]

Not a 180, and I've already explained it.
Me saying I had no idea why I had called Titus town was literal; I was not calling her scum, and the vote was a vote of "a wagon is forming and I don't remember any reason that the person being wagoned is town, I guess I'll apply some pressure."

That 1600 post gap is also kind of important bc it includes, you know, her recent posting, and all of her posting around the mason shit.

[implosion]

Implosion, why do you think Nosferatu and PeregrineV expressed their negative gut read on you (bad vibes) early on?

Nos, probably because he actually had gut vibes from me. Even if he's scum, it was probably him trying to emulate something he'd have said as town and not anything deeper than that.

Peregrine, also possibly that, or possibly just trying to sow the seeds of a future push as scum potentially.

So implosion who is a better lynch than Titus and yourself?

I'm having some trouble finding people that I'm actually enthusiastic about lynching. I'd still be happy with AGar pressure but there seems to be a lot of AGar-town sentiment flying around the room. The other scumread I currently have is Mirhawk but I do need to re-evaluate it and I've been a bit lazy about isoing him. I'd honestly also be satisfied with a lurker lynch (peregrine) because I have a lot of townreads and I'm not a fan of his posting so far in particular. Airick also maybe but it seems like we're about to get content from him possibly.

[implosion]

I'm having some trouble finding people that I'm actually enthusiastic about lynching. I'd still be happy with AGar pressure but there seems to be a lot of AGar-town sentiment flying around the room. The other scumread I currently have is Mirhawk but I do need to re-evaluate it and I've been a bit lazy about isoing him. I'd honestly also be satisfied with a lurker lynch (peregrine) because I have a lot of townreads and I'm not a fan of his posting so far in particular. Airick also maybe but it seems like we're about to get content from him possibly.

This is a slick way of saying you wanna lynch 3 AFK slots and Mirhawk.

i mean i kind of do? not really airick. But the other 2 afk slots and mirhawk, yeah.

[implosion]

implosion expresses his disdain for voting a V/LA player earlier, then proceeds to vote a lurker who had not made any recent posts..

There's a very important difference; a lurker can potentially be pressured into posting, while a V/LA player cannot. Or they might happen to post in which case you can see their reaction to the vote.

His vote has not moved from here.

Which I have justified.

implosion has a hard time finding active players to lynch because he has to essentially make up scumreads on them.

This is just insulting.
I'm an experienced player on this site. I'm not going to have trouble as scum making up scumreads on people. It's not hard. As town, however, I don't get to pick and choose what my reads are on each player.

the rest of his scumreads (AGar, Mirhawk) he's very wishy-washy on them and not really ready to commit to anything at all. Take AGar for instance.

This is because they are weak scumreads; they're just the scummiest players in the game, which makes those reads strong relative to the rest of the player list.

Name someone besides me doing that? Also, why should it matter if your scumread is townread by people? Titus and Dunnstral have no problems doing that.

Wake.
It means a few things. It makes me question my read on him (because, unlike all of you fuckers, i don't think my reads are better than everyone else's and I actually at least somewhat agree with some of the points in favor of agartown like his handling of the masons).

" Airick also maybe " this is bullshit, he's posted almost nothing that could be considered alignment indicative.

Imagine I have a number for each player, and when someone does something townish that number goes down and when they do something scummy it goes up. Airick's number is 0, but that's still the fourth-highest number in the game, which is pretty solid as far as I'm concerned. Again. I have a lot of townreads. If you look at almost any of my towngames you will find that I have a much easier time obtaining townreads than scumreads. Almost every game.

[implosion]

"random"
no fucking shit i'm going to respond if you make a case on me. I'm keeping up with the thread pretty consistently. There's just not always anything that warrants posting. Y'know, because I've posted a lot and want to let others post some more? You don't seem to understand that about this game :/.

And yes, they do. There's nothing town in them. Him calling himself blatant town in his reads list is disingenuous because if he's town he should know he's not obvious (although that's a minor point). The lack of willingness to lynch me is also strange (if I'm one of his scumreads and he's felt like my tone was off early I really don't know why he wouldn't want to). That lack of willingness changing to willingness (specifically him begrudgingly saying he'd iso me) is also somewhat strange/potentially scummy depending on his justification for why he didn't want to lynch me.

I haven't played with peregrine probably in 5 years so I don't remember his play well, but there is really nothing in there that makes me want to unvote him. And again, I play the game mostly by finding townreads.

[implosion]

I actually haven't really been paying attention to Vedith's posts. My early reason for townreading sickofit decayed over time but his tone in his most recent post sounds really genuine.

Looking at Vedith's ISO I think I'm willing to lynch the slot. Nos was one of my weakest townreads and his take on the Titus thing feels kind of like he wants to policy lynch her for the fakeclaim without calling it a policy lynch. It feels like he might be scum who feels like scum is entitled to the mislynch after Titus misplayed. "Claiming mason when you are not mason is scum to me" in 2142 is a very 1-dimensional view of the game.

[implosion]

Yes. That is a minor point. When I find out who else in this game did that and you didn't vote them for it, I'll be sure to let you know.

The point is that he's done nothing that I can imagine he would think would be perceived as obvious town; other people doing it would be reasonable (I wouldn't fault you for it, for instance).

So you play the game by finding townreads, but it follows that players that post more have more to pick at, and you can find what's not town in their statements. Not easy, but it should be doable. Yet you have no scumreads in majorly active players aside from Mirhawk. And even now, you're voting Peregrine.

And?
I think a lot of the scum in this game are in the lurkers.
Some of my townreads are probably scum as well (it's not like I expect my reads to be perfect) but I don't see why this is so complicated.

[implosion]

For the record, my current list of strong townreads:

Lapsa, podoboq, Zach, Dunnstral
Titus, Wake, Performer, Boem

With the tier on top being a bit more confident than the bottom, but all 8 of those are pretty confidently town. I really doubt I'll be convinced, at least today, on anyone in that list; anyone else I can potentially be convinced on.

[implosion]

Unvote

VOTE: Vedith

[implosion]

Unvote

VOTE: AGar

I prefer him to Vedith. Still willing to compromise on Vedith though.

Low posting lurkers or low content lurkers?

I don't know, you tell me which of these categories the scumreads that I have very clearly elucidated fall into.

Another trend I'm noticing in this game that I very heavily disagree with. There are multiple people that I believe are town (Wake, Lapsa) that are seeing certain things happening and essentially abstractly deciding that those things must be meaningful: in Wake's case the resistance to Titus's wagon, in Lapsa's case the 'connection' between Varsoon and Zach. I really just abhor this kind of reasoning of seeing that something has happened, being unable to explain it, and therefore assuming it must have some deeper reason.

People are pushing against the Titus wagon because there are really good reasons to believe that she's town. Her play today has been very divisive (and it's the kind of play that we should expect to be divisive). So it isn't strange that there are large numbers of people calling for her lynch and large numbers vocally opposing that lynch. No one is pushing against the Vedith wagon because those strong reasons don't exist for him, so no one feels strongly enough that he is town to vocally oppose it.

The Zach/Varsoon thing is just meaningless. The way they acted together in no way implies a connection beyond one of them implicitly asking the other to fakeclaim masons with them, and the other acquiescing.

[implosion]

There hasn't been a god damn flip uet and we're talking about multiball already?

preeeeeetty much

[implosion]

I don't know, you tell me which of these categories the scumreads that I have very clearly elucidated fall into.

I don't think you are making a distinction between the two.

But, it's out there for future examination.

It's not that I'm scumreading the lurkers for lurking; it's that the people that are lurking also happen to be the people that i'm scumreading (or more accurately, not townreading, since I have so many townreads).

[implosion]

I really have nothing useful to say here. I don't know what some people saw in AGar's recent posting that looked town to them. He's saying reasonable things but they aren't really town-indicative reasonable things. His most recent post at least is just like, a neutral description of how town should play. Describing how town should play does not make you town. You could argue that it mitigates the points about him switching off Titus and that's fair but that doesn't make him town. If AGar is scum (and Vedith isn't trolling) then these last couple of wagons will be a goldmine of analysis.

[implosion]

If theres a town roleblocker then they

can

out who they targeted but it's not like Dunn's claim actually confirms him. Lapsa also was really, really obvious town from the macho claim (and other things) but he wasn't listening to anything anyone was saying so it's not like it's the biggest deal.

I agree with VC analysis being important here; from my point of view I tend to think either airick or almost50 is scum from it based on the AGar wagon (which, I agree even though I was on it, was probably largely a counterwagon) and a stronger townread on podoboq. I'd say I'm unsure on AGar now. The end result of yesterday is enough to sway me from scumreading him at least for now.

Saying we need to put pressure on Titus is pointless. She had the most pressure applied to her of any player yesterday by far for the entire day.

VOTE: Almost50

[implosion]

Oh yeah i also want to lynch mirhawk more than before i think but i don't remember why it was.

[implosion]

Why? Because town are going to tunnel town into the fucking ground

Who specifically are you afraid of this happening with? Titus I assume, or others as well?

[implosion]

And Zach I will look at Performer again later (I agree with you completely about titus/wake) but I do have what I think is a pretty solid townread based on Performer's play in a vacuum; if you want to try to convince me I'm willing to listen.

[implosion]

Okay WHAT ABOUT THAT POST IS BAD EXPLAIN IT LIKE I'M A HAMSTER

Well for one, he is now seemingly ignoring me....

Even though a second ago he was content to sheep what I was voting

Anyway it was the most opportunistic vote ever and it just the post didn't feel right

You aren't really saying anything relevant to me... if you were giving reasons that you disliked my post i'd have responded to them, if you nakedly vote me I don't really have anything to say to you.

I want my vote to do something; to that end I'd rather vote together with someone else than throw out a naked vote on, say, Mirhawk. This should be clear from my play yesterday. It's early in the day and I feel like I haven't thought anything strongly about A50 since that one post I townread him for early d1 and I looked back at that post, and thought it was pretty mediocre (maybe slightly town but certainly not strongly).

[implosion]

I am also willing to believe that the entire second half of the Vedith wagon is town (although partially because nothing there really conflicts with my existing reads).

[implosion]

It's still perfectly possible A50 is mafia but certainly less likely and certainly not today's lynch so.

Unvote

VOTE: Mirhawk
And i swear if anyone calls this vote opportunistic after what i've been saying today there will be words.

These are also all of Mirhawk's comments on Vedith:

I'm not really feeling Ved, his posts strike me as more newtown then anything else. I could go this way if we have no better options, but eh.

Soft PR claim from Ved.

Some people are voting Titus for one of the Mason gambits, some people are voting Vedith for replacing into a lurker slot then generating little content, and some people are voting AGar for reasons I don't really understand. Smart people are voting Shannon because she keeps making gross posts.

No mention of Nosferatu. No mention of Mirhawk from Vedith except for responding to the latter two of these in 2537 and 2577 both of which I can easily see as S->S. I haven't looked at the iso from mirhawk in depth yet (I've delved a bit more into vedith but not a ton) but these are some pretty lackluster interactions.

[implosion]

It's still perfectly possible A50 is mafia but certainly less likely and certainly not today's lynch so.

I don't like this. Scum hate having people practically clear in the town's eyes.

1) Why do you think he should be practically clear?
2) If this is the case then why have I been pushing that so damn many people (lapsa, you, titus, dunnstral, maybe others that i can't name off the top of my head) should be practically clear in the town's eyes?

[implosion]

1) I believe if he was a scum RB it's too much of a risk to claim like that. And when he would not turn up as dead in the future it would arouse suspicion. The slot reads pretty Town to me.

2) I don't know? Have any of those pushes worked?

1) I agree. I think he's significantly more town now; but I have extraneous reason to think that he's scum (I like Airick's most recent post, I know that I'm town, and I have a fairly strong townread on podoboq) which leaves him as the last person on the AGar wagon. It actually might be possible that that wagon

was

all town and the other voters off the wagon + possibly AGar are scum. I still think it's possible that A50 is scum, however. I'm certainly not interested in lynching him in the next 2-3 days unless there's some really good reason to.

2) This is a red herring; your original point was that scum hate having people be practically clear, so the intent is what's relevant. Unless you think that I am scum who was intentionally failing at making people be read as town. Which I suppose you can think if you want.

And @dunn Lapsa wasn't "practically clear." I just had an extremely strong townread on him and was pushing him as town, and would have been happy to have made him be "practically clear" in the town's eyes because I was very confident that he was town.
If I had known there was a vig targeting him I'd have pushed that harder (irrelevant though that may be).

[implosion]

I agree that Nos associatives are important but it's not like there's a simple way to just look at all of the player->Nos-slot interactions like there is for looking at the Nos-slot->player interactions through ISO; the former is tantamount to rereading all of d1. And it's not like people aren't doing it at all; I analyzed Mirhawk's interactions with the slot.

I don't think that analyzing the Lapsa kill is likely to be useful, for multiple reasons (the main one simply being that he claimed macho and so could very easily have been targeted simply for that).

[implosion]

he comes back after being MIA for all the "mason" drama. doesn't give much input on the active slots. only condones lynches for those that are inactive.

I did give in put on the active slots; I adamantly called most of them town and less adamantly called others town. Calling them town is not the opposite of giving input.

I kinda agree with the sentiment that there was likely no scum in most of the latter people on Ved's wagon. But I probably wouldn't apply that to Dunn and Shannon as the writing was on the wall by that point so I could see bussing happening there.

Read: "I don't want to look weird for disagreeing with this sentiment but I don't want it to prevent me from pushing on Dunn or shannon even though them being town is 40% of what the sentiment says." Saying that he agrees with the sentiment and then essentially discounting it wholesale by saying that 40% of the 5 people that have been called town for it are scum is just posturing.

Boem, Implosion, Mirhawk, Varsoon, shannon, all of you I am asking to come in here and give your thoughts on.

Yet another thing that you're reading deeply into that I'm pretty sure is meaningless.

If either of you are Town, and you believe I am Town, it actually is in your best interest to follow me right now, because your heads are on the line.

Very convincing I must say but no? You are not some magical town leader who every townie should turn to when they're being pushed.

What do you think of the people on your wagons? Do you feel they're justified, or do you feel some of them are lying?

I think Airick's reasoning was largely fine, and he just happens to be wrong. The "history of following" thing is just a misinterpretation of a playstyle and I can't fault him for thinking my switch to AGar was scummy. Boem is also thinking things through and seems to be teetering on the edge of me or Mirhawk so I don't fault him either. I don't really think either of them is scum, certainly not based on this. Transcend/Varsoon/beeboy are shitty votes but none in particular was scummily so. I have independent townreads on all three of them, but none of those reads are all that strong and so it's likely that there's one scum in the three. Titus is still town.

And there's already a moderately sized wagon on my preferred target. Idk why I would join a townblock that would vote for someone I prefer less. I also really just hate the sort of air of you seeming like you feel entitled to followers because you're being townread; I disagree pretty heavily with your reads iirc.

[implosion]

If I can get the motivation I also might formally case Mirhawk since at least one person was asking for it.

[implosion]

implosion says no

dingdingding

Vedith is dead scum.

lol.

[implosion]

Alright. Case on Mirhawk's ISO, up until post 1000. podoboq and maybe others were asking for it. I'll get to the rest of the ISO later, I don't want this post

too

big. I've already mentioned that I find his first few posts off so we'll skip those. Note additionally that there's plenty of null posts in his ISO but really nothing at all that has rang town to me so far to any extent, in contrast to, again, the vast majority of the player list.

Spoiler:

Catching up.

ummm town wouldnt type a post to stand out, that outs attention on them and away from hunting actual scum. ... so it sounds like you are insinuating that he is scum. i think it could be that you are scum pushing against an early mislynch.

Again how am I pushing against a mislynch? Especially if I'm insinuating that he's scum?

You're looking for a reason to call what I said scummy, but I think you can't think of one.

Unvote
Vote: sick

This feels like wanting to OMGUS. It's just a mediocre vote. The asking questions towards him and then voting him also feels like a sort of disjoint between Mirhawk thinking that he's just misunderstanding sickofit, and Mirhawk thinking that he understands what sickofit is saying and that it's scummy.

Seriously you guys need to stop talking so friggin much. I'm never going to catch up at this rate.

Because I'm like twenty pages behind I'm probably going to comment on a bunch of stuff that's already been addressed but whatever.

Preemptive "hey don't judge me for doing this." Indicates a mindset of caring more about how he is read than about obtaining accurate reads. Also implying that commenting on stuff that has "already being addressed" isn't valuable because obviously, if it's been addressed, then there's nothing else new to say on it? The tone and content of this post both feel off. Like, I don't see it as being part of a townie's approach to the game that they don't or shouldn't need to comment on or understand things that have "already been addressed."

I dunno, 175 could very well be scum looking for an easy target.

I doubt it.

Depending on how you look at it it's maybe advocating a policy lynch a little bit, but I'm not really seeing that as a serious comment.

I find that strange as well, imp saying he is close to townreading you

+1

I agree, it stood out to me as well.

That's not a scum slip any way you slice it

Ja

^^ This is the kind of annoying non-content I am talking about. How does this help town in any plausible way? How is it anything more than noise that is designed to annoy, confuse, take up space, or break up the flow of conversation?

If you are town and you think this is helping, you are the weirdest townie I've ever met and I don't think your loss would be devastating. If you're scum, even better, we can lynch with impunity. I didn't really consider 'lynch the annoying person' as a policy lynch, but I guess it is and I'm happy if that becomes our policy at this point.

This is ironic considering the content of the posts you've made thus far.

Also, policy lynches are stupid.

Catchup through 668: reeks of catching up with the intent of being caught up rather than catching up with the intent of determining who is scum based on the content that has been posted. Only reads he gives or implies based on the content are scum on Zach, town on Boem, and he gives a lot of noncommittal posts. At the end of it he effectively gives a scumread on Zach, a scumread on shannon and a weak scumread on Transcend. These feel kind of phoned in/underjustified. I see the justification for the Zach read (terrible as the justification is), but the justification for shannon seems to be that "The only thing she's done is complain about Zach's posting style." Which is not a justification for a scumread. And the read on Transcend is preempted basically by just a bunch of eyerolling at his posts. It just feels like overall content for the sake of content rather than the sake of scumhunting. I guess the catchup isn't strongly scummy but it feels off in the way of the scumhunting just not really feeling genuine to me. It feels like his content is mostly questions that aren't actually that useful in finding scum.

Highlighted here are some of his posts from the catchup that are commenting on things without taking stances. Again, he does take stances during the catchup but only minimally until the end.

His alive presence is interfering greatly with my scumhunting activities, not to mention he contributes worthless reads to boot

and no fake dayvigs either dont tease me. if you're in this setup then i greatly implore you to use your ability for the greater good

It would help if you avoided rank hypocrisy Zach. You want me to unvote you because it won't go anywhere but Lapsa unvoted me for the same reason, you object.

The difference is:

1) I'm town

2) You're scum

You like that one? Dunnstral taught me.

Am I to read this as your reads suck because of him? Because that's what I'm getting from it.

Also calling for dayvigs on people who you don't think are scum is terrible fucking play.

Another mental disconnect.

"terrible fucking play" is what you accuse someone you think is town-but-bad of doing. It is not what you accuse your

primary scumread

of doing.

Anyone have meta on Titus doing Mason gambits?

No but I'd put my level of trust in that being a legit claim somewhere around fifteen percent.

Hrm, strike that. They obviously have daytalk.

This post. This post reminded me that GiF mentioned whether or not scum have daytalk, and made me think that if they don't have daytalk, then this might almost be a townslip. But they do have daytalk. It seems REALLY likely to me that Mirhawk saw the mason claim gambit and was (as scum) trying to figure out whether or not they were fake, and then realized "oh wait, we have daytalk - maybe their claim could actually be legit if they also have daytalk... hmmm..." or something along those lines. I won't say that townies have no reason to figure out whether or not the mason claims are an actual claim shortly after they claimed, but I don't think it's particularly town motivated to dig very deep to try to figure it out that early. My speculation on Varsoon's "softclaim" for example, I thought was a very obvious thing. I don't think this degree of speculation is that likely from town.

[implosion]

there's also the whole varsoon explicitly asking for claims before we hammer anyone thing

[implosion]

Reading through AGar's Performer case the first three points at least (and that's all that I've read at the time of writing this) are all deeply unconvincing to me.
Voting NL in your first post is not scummy. I really cannot imagine any scum player feeling such a need to be noncommittal that early that they would feel the need to NL. The only scum motivation that I can think of for voting NL is attempting to mimic one's own town meta if they would do the same thing. And any even vaguely competent scum is going to know that the conspicuity that it draws is not worth the ability to not commit to stances. That's just such a bunk point.

All of the posts that AGar cites as "not contributing to the game" kind of do contribute to the game? In them he states reads, he offers advice, he says who he wants to push and he gives reasoning. Idfk what AGar is looking for in those posts that Performer doesn't have.

As for the should-know-what-NAI-means point, I will just say it doesn't surprise me that much. It's not just based on join date like AGar is implying, it's based on another game that Performer and I played together (both town) where he was under fairly heavy pressure all game and I was constantly calling him obvtown. He even referenced that game early in this game multiple times. I agree it's a janky reason to scumread me but I don't think it's a scum-motivated push.

Honestly so far I'm just being reminded of the reasons that I was townreading Performer in the first place reading through this... though I will continue.

[implosion]

vedith the mafia neapolitan

[implosion]

I agree with AGar that 1038 is a useless post but it is in no way scummy, it's a NAI emotional reaction.
1039-1043, yeah, decent point. Not super compelling but something.
The "high expectations" thing is, indeed, a description of how Performer's play is unusual. It is not a description of how it is scummy.

I'm noticing a theme throughout a lot of AGar's case that he's just describing Performer's play and sort of leaving it up to the reader to see why those descriptions are scummy and no, they really aren't IMO.

[implosion]

(note that I'm not sure if that theme is indicative of AGar scum, it might be.)

[implosion]

I guess since I'm responding to a bunch of points over multiple posts I should probably quote what I'm responding to

- 1066 - "Titus could be faking, but I'm not lynching her." We were soundly in two camps at that point - "Titus is fake-claiming this as scum. Lynch her." or "Titus wouldn't do this as scum, this is dumb, let's lynch someone else." I don't remember anyone being so dead in the middle of that one, offhand.
- 1077 - I say "Lynch the mason" - the one he suggests could be fake claiming, and he votes me in response.
- 1119 - Very rarely do I find OMGUS to be at all a scumtell, but this is a rare occasion. His vote on Transcend is fucking awful, and this is coming from someone who thinks Transcend is probably shitty town at the most small-chance best case scenario, and scum at worst. The post has a lot of useless spec, and then at the end is "Oh hey, Transcend voted me - quote and vote baby!"

I don't really mind 1066 either. Being noncommittal is not in and of itself a scumtell, it's only a scumtell if it appears that a person is being noncommittal for the sake of advancing some scum agenda, typically leaving flexibility to shift with the tides. This doesn't read particularly as that, it more reads as him saying "we should sort Titus later, I just don't want to deal with her today." Which doesn't really leave him the flexibility to commit to pushing Titus if it continues to happen on d1.

1077, you're ignoring half his post... you know, where he also justifies the vote based on your vote of him. Also finding someone saying "lynch the mason" scummy is not inconsistent with the attitude of "she might be scum but don't lynch her today."

1119, "useless spec" once again is not inherently scummy. It looks like a natural progression of his opinion on Titus to me. Also this post isn't omgus? what?



p-edit @dunn will get to that after finishing AGar's post.

[implosion]

- 1130 - No lynch? REALLY??!?!!? I can understand early on. But a no-lynch 1100+ posts into a game is just asinine. +
- Shit like 1330 and 1338 - "Explain your read to me!" "Oh. I had you scum but now town." One case shouldn't swing players to those kind of extremes outside of way early Day 1 and special exceptions, neither of which we've had. We have enough content by that point at the very least that a read on a player like Zach should've been fairly well established and any movement on the needle is minimal.
- Multiple later D1 posts, he buddies hard to Vedith. Like he's glad to have an ally coming in. It's late enough that buddying might fly under the radar, especially with the other shit that popped up in Day 1. But it's fucking there.
After this, it gets hazy of him posting anything of merit, but I think I made my point. He's a pretty bad player in a best case scenario, but I'm pretty sure he's just a scumbag.

1130. Yet again. Yes. Asinine. Why is this scummy. What is the scum motivation. There is no particularly poignant scum motivation for that. There's no town motivation either, it's null.

And I have to take a break to go play pokemon go will be back in a bit~

[implosion]

I showed up to review AGar's case and his case is making me look at a bunch of Performer's posts and I disagree with almost all of his reasons for scumreading Performer and am being reminded of reasons that I've thought Performer was town so yes I apparently did come here to hard defend performer. And I left because a pokestop at the end of the block was lured (time-sensitive).

Anyway. 1330/1338 I don't even see what AGar is referring to, and his last point is unspecific but may have merit but I'd need to know which posts he's referring to. On the whole the case is just really, really bad. I was expecting it to have some merit but it really doesn't.

Re: Mirhawk's recent posts. 3536 completely sidesteps the point I was making. My point was that Mirhawk's post indicated that:

I kinda agree with the sentiment that there was likely no scum in most of the latter people on Ved's wagon.

and yet he did not actually agree with that sentiment, instead calling (being generous to him now) 1/3 of the people in "the latter people on Ved's wagon" scum (note that 1/3 is pretty certainly

much higher

than the proportion of scum in the town as a whole!) Essentially the way he phrased it indicates a cognitive dissonance of wanting to appear to agree with that sentiment, but also wanting to express opinions in direct contradiction to it.

His wholesale, nonspecific acceptance of AGar's case in 3543 is also noteworthy. Especially this line:

I mean I can't really think of any good reason to not vote performer after reading that.

It just feels so waffly, in a scummy way, as though he's trying to leave himself room to go either way on the Performer wagon. Saying he can't see any reason not to vote and then IMMEDIATELY saying he doesn't really want to go for what he perceives as a lurker lynch (which is, in fact,

a reason not to vote

).

A lot of his recent posts don't really make me feel one way or the other. Again none of them strike me as town to any degree with the very slight exception of 3577 but that's only a very small gut extent.

[implosion]

Dunn, what do you think of Mirhawk's recent posts?

[implosion]

Varsoon obviously knows something we don't, so why doesn't Performer/kraska claim and we catch her if she's bullshiting? This way she has time to coordinate and discuss with her teammates if she's scum. Having another scum lynched at this point would be really great and confirming suspect as town and redirection our attention elsewhere wouldn't exactly suck either.

By the same logic we could just have everybody claim for Varsoon to tell us who two townies are. I am explicitly against running people up just for Varsoon to check their claims, If we're running people up its going to be with the intent to lynch or I'll throw a fit.

...What?

This is the way mafia is

normally

played on this site. We run someone up, they claim, we evaluate the claim, if the claim seems townish then we let them off the hook and look elsewhere.

Imagine you're playing the setup friends and enemies. On day one, you do not ask the masons to all claim immediately so that you can run up with intent to lynch rather than intent to check claims; you run someone up, and let them claim, and if they claim mason you save them for later or let an actual mason counterclaim to avoid lynching a mason by accident. This is effectively the same thing if Varsoon can actually confirm two people as town.

[implosion]

again,

...What?

There is literally nothing differentiating this situation from a typical situation of getting a claim before we lynch someone, except Varsoon saying that it's more important than usual. The strong and/or confirmable power roles in this game could be ANYONE. There's not actually that great a chance that it's Kras... but that doesn't mean that we aren't going to wait for a fucking claim.

I really don't understand what you're saying at all.

[implosion]

Because the things that you're saying largely sound like they're coming from someone who doesn't understand basic mafia theory?

[implosion]

By the same logic we could just have everybody claim for Varsoon to tell us who two townies are.

This sentence in particular still makes zero sense after all of your explanations.

[implosion]

Her wagon was also smaller than Mirhawk's before you voted, A50.

[implosion]

(she's also really really town)

[implosion]

The thing I'm missing here, why is it so bad that kraska claims and we confirm her alignment? Simple town/scum from Varsoon will suffice.

Two reasons.

1, if kraska is town there's no guarantee she's one of the roles Varsoon can confirm;
2, the real reason (and this is of course up to the will of the town as a whole) is that we should ask for a claim from someone else because kraska is very very town.

[implosion]

which feels like a pocket on implosion's behalf.

possible
but
like i said
agar and implosion's interations prior to me replacing in show that they cant possibly be scum together
and it's agar im scum reading
so that pushes implosion out of the picture for me by default

multiball???? ever considered that??? do you KNOW the setup?

are you serious right now?

There was one kill last night, a plain old mafia flip, and most people aren't constantly thinking about multiball anyway.

[implosion]

Multiball = multiple separate scumteams.

[implosion]

There's really never any reason to think about multiball/third parties unless we see a flip that makes the game multiball or we see multiple nks multiple nights. Idfk why people keep talking about it like it's actually an important consideration until then because of some gut feeling that the high-level direction of the game indicates multiball.

Like, saying two people aren't likely scum together is an extremely common line of thought. I really don't understand why you're implying it's scummy bc it indicates not thinking about multiball. Have you seriously never seen people use that kind of reasoning in a situation where the game wasn't explicitly guaranteed singleball?

[implosion]

A50, that's a very 1-dimensional view of the game. There are plenty of possible reasons scum-Mirhawk wouldn't vote town-Performer/kraska. Some possibilities:

-He didn't want to vote immediately for fear of looking scummy for voting blindly on the counterwagon
-He gave a waffly read earlier and is trying to figure out the best time to transition from that read into a vote
-He's trying to keep his options open and hedge against the kraska wagon disintegrating
etc.

Your "both are town" case is also wrong because Mirhawk doesn't town read her end of story... look at his ISO, he's been very vocally waffling on the slot since he caught up.

[implosion]

(ftr, I would also be happy with a Peregrine lynch today)

[implosion]

@kraska77

I have two points to address here:

1. From my experience, replacements are much more likely to be scum than the baseline probability would suggest. That means replacement is under greater pressure to do something in order he/she didn't sub in scum slot.

2. Question I asked myself when Performer left the game is 'Why'. Why would he sub out if he's town, lynched scum on D1 (and a vital one) and town is in a comfortable spot at the start of D2. Unfortunately, I see this kind of behavior far too often in mafia and other games. Somebody isn't doing too well and he just gives up.

As far as Wake is concerned, his behavior D2 is kinda weird after a solid D1 imo.

Performer disappeared site-wide.
I'm pretty sure this has already been said.
Unless you think him disappearing site-wide (he was in multiple games) is a result of him not liking having to play this particular game as scum, it's 100% NAI.

[implosion]

it was also said by kraska apparently and I missed it but iirc it was mentioned earlier too.

[implosion]

PeregrineV, that's how you contribute to this game? Seriously?

It tells me podoq is town, which means I won't vote him. And maybe Wake is town, if he is working up his posts in a PT but not the scum PT. Unless they don't have daytalk.

So , I'm scumhunting by finding town to not-lynch.

What else do you want?

What else do we want... hm.
1) you to actually give this reasoning (or really, indicate that you thought it made podoboq town at all!) without us having to put you to the grindstone. You quoting a post and then linking an emoticon and saying "ok" does not tell us that you thought podoboq was town based on that post.
2) give reads on more than two players when you've been playing the game for 140+ pages
3) take solid stances on literally any of the players who have been hotly debated and wagoned today (mirhawk, kraska, me)

[implosion]

unvote

while I think.

[implosion]

Okay.

So I believe Varsoon's claim. I also can't imagine a moderator thinking of backup nurse as something to put in a setup unless there was actually a nurse.

But there's a simple problem here. Even night doctor + nurse + backup nurse + jailkeeper is just a ridiculous amount of town protective roles at first sight. Honestly, this is making me question Almost50's claim the most. I'm willing to bet that all of the doc roles are town, having all four of those as town roles would be a really strange amount of protective power and having one of the doc-nurse-backupnurse be scum would be really strange. I'm willing to call Varsoon 99.9% town, and Mirhawk somewhat likely town. Given the 1-shot vig being likely the only town killing role, the jailkeeper also makes more sense as scum than any of the doc roles. I doubt that scum would have a dedicated protective role to protect themselves against a lone 1-shot vig. The other possibility is that we are in multiball but I really don't think that's worth considering until we see a significant amount of concrete evidence.

I want to seriously re-evaluate Almost50's claim.

[implosion]

Vote: PeregrineV

I guess even if A50 might be lying there isn't a ton of sense lynching him today. It's possible the setup is just flooded with protective PRs.

[implosion]

because what moderator in their right mind would conceive of the idea of a backup nurse without a nurse

if they were going for something like that they would just put a nurse without a doctor or a deputy without a cop. Those are sort of standby choices (along with miller) for moderators looking to add a named townie to a setup. They wouldn't think of it.

[implosion]

(also, if there are any town-aligned killing roles other than Dunnstral, then my reasoning will change significantly and Mirhawk is somewhat likely scum again. But I'll cross that bridge if it comes up)

[implosion]

hence the "or a deputy without a cop"

[implosion]

(although we conceivably could have a cop too but it seems unlikely with so damn many protective roles)

[implosion]

(also, if there are any town-aligned killing roles other than Dunnstral, then my reasoning will change significantly and Mirhawk is somewhat likely scum again. But I'll cross that bridge if it comes up)

Not sure I follow

The likelihood that the mod put in a mafia even-night doc if the only town killing role is a 1-shot vig seems very low.
If there's also like, another 1-shot vig, or an even-night vig, or something like that, then it becomes more likely.

[implosion]

because what moderator in their right mind would conceive of the idea of a backup nurse without a nurse

if they were going for something like that they would just put a nurse without a doctor or a deputy without a cop. Those are sort of standby choices (along with miller) for moderators looking to add a named townie to a setup. They wouldn't think of it.

Named townie is a thing.

VOTE: PV

It isn't explicitly normal.

[implosion]

(which doesn't mean that it couldn't be used, but etc)

[implosion]

Or are you saying "named townie isn't explicitely normal"

Because that's just untrue

It is, in fact, true.
I use the term "explicitly normal" here in the sense that it is used on mafiascum; a large normal setup is allowed to have at most two not-explicitly-normal roles.

because what moderator in their right mind would conceive of the idea of a backup nurse without a nurse

if they were going for something like that they would just put a nurse without a doctor or a deputy without a cop. Those are sort of standby choices (along with miller) for moderators looking to add a named townie to a setup. They wouldn't think of it.

Well, we don't KNOW there isn't a deputy (or a Cop with no deputy for that matter). The former become "already done" in response to your suggestion, while the latter becomes "no can do".

Now as for the doctor -and precisely for our case here in this game- I guess the setup needed one. So, I'm MERELY SPECULATING- that either a Cop OR a Deputy is in play and thus the mod got cornered between including a Backup Nurse w/o there being a Nurse or adding a Backup Deputy.

Obviously I'm NOT an expert in setup balancing (I only modded one game that had a fixed standard open setup and still somehow managed to slip up to confirm TWO players roles, so I'll just shut up now!)

This is interesting discussion as this is only speculation it being a closed game, so I don't want to read too much into this and I think it's quite a challenge to try and figure that out blind. But a couple questions.

- Implosion, I agree that adding a backup nurse or deputy without a nurse or deputy is pretty crazy. So are you saying if there is a backup nurse, there can only be a nurse without a doctor? What would a nurse be able to do without a doctor? And with this logic, do you believe Mirhawk's/Varsoon's claims?

Where the hell did I say this. I said that there are all three (backup nurse, nurse, doctor). I believe Mirhawk's claim. As I've said, I still think it's possible that he's scum (specifically a mafia doctor) but it's significantly less likely. I honestly have no idea how you got this from what I've posted.

podoboq, do you have a special reason to trust beeboy's miller claim as well? Just wondering

2) Setup spec on my part. There needs to be a cop to justify Miller, though, so going down this PR rabbit hole has made the claim look a little worse.

This is strictly wrong on mafiascum; miller without a cop is perfectly valid in normal games, specifically so that you can't infer the presence of a cop from the presence of a miller. See the above link. It also happens in practice.

[implosion]

Anyway. My list of townreads right now that are strong enough that I'm not really willing to lynch them today is (in no particular order) {wake, dunn, kraska, varsoon, podoboq, zach, titus, boem}. Mirhawk vaguely falls in this list for now as well.

Other people that I suspect are town and so would prefer not to lynch are {beeboy, shannon, Airick}. But it would not surprise me if I was wrong on any of them, especially Airick, and I'm willing to entertain wagons just because of the sheer number of stronger townreads I have.

That leaves {PeregrineV, AGar, Almost50, Transcend}. And that's, once again, a pretty damn small list of people that I'm not townreading. Just for reference, the final Vedith wagon was:

AGar, Performer, PeregrineV, Zachstralkita, beeboy, Titus, Transcend, Boem_u_dusi, shannon, Dunnstral

I guess Transcend has the blitzing-thing in his favor. I never really found anything he did very readable after the early pages and that read faded over time. I'd love to see him case me. Or really do anything other than pester me for thousands of pages.

[implosion]

(well, pester me and vote pretty much everyone in the game arbitrarily with the winds)

[implosion]

ironically every person being voted right now except for peregrine is actually in my strong townreads <_<

[implosion]

Mirhawk, why did you choose to protect podoboq with all of the anti-podoboq rhetoric near the end of the day?

[implosion]

Okay actually though this post

I'm thinking the main reason Scum killed Titus is because she continuously butted heads with me this game, and my ability will kill anyone who tries to kill me at Night. It's actually pretty sneaky, but it won't work and I'll be waiting for Scum to approach.

Please explain what you mean by this on any level. And why are you choosing this exact moment to claim PGO? Why would scum know that you were a PGO, and therefore choose to kill Titus over you, as you're implying here? And why would scum want to kill one of two townies who were butting heads and distracting the town?

[implosion]

podoboq continues to be transparently town

[implosion]

(actually i suppose that isn't particularly townie since he could theoretically be macho mafia but he's still town)

[implosion]

Also I'm now thinking that maybe Dunn Is town after all, the one shot vig makes sense thematically with the other PR's.

When exactly did you come to this conclusion?
During the night? Just now? Near the end of yesterday? Because these roles have been claimed for a while.

[implosion]

And @beeboy, can you explain why you believe Mirhawk's claim? I think early d1 will largely revolve around trying to sort mirhawk and a50, and I'd like to see some cogent arguments for both sides of each of them.

It'd also just be nice to see you doing more stuff since you've been taking a back seat and I'm still not convinced you're town, though I'm leaning that way.

[implosion]

Wake claiming bomb yesterday makes no sense, why would you do that?

When did he claim bomb?

[implosion]

That was today, not yesterday, boem.

[implosion]

Ftr, i also think Wake's opening today is scummy, but I'd like to see his answers to open questions. I have a townread on him from other things so I need to figure out if this is enough to shake that.

[implosion]

Also standard terminology on MS afaik is bomb = only goes off on killing actions, pgo (paranoid gun owner) = goes off on all actions.

[implosion]

In that case he probably never should have said it. Which means he shitting us. I don't think it was a serious claim.

I protected Titus night one. It was a toss up between her and wake.

hello

[implosion]

lmao is this an actual bona fide scumslip

[implosion]

i'm stupid and didn't actually look at the post boem quoted so ignore me on that, i was looking at the other post.

[implosion]

i will be really happy if mirhawk is scum just saying <_>

and pedit: +1 what transcend said. No need to rush the day. We have information to elicit etc.

[implosion]

More than one Sk is not allowed in a normal game.

[implosion]

well n1 there was only one death so he obviously killed peregrine's protection target OH WAIT

[implosion]

well n1 there was only one death so he obviously killed peregrine's protection target OH WAIT

is it possible mafia and sk targeted lapsa?
i think mirhawk is just BSing

someone explain this to me my head hurts and i cant be bothered to do mental gymnastics rn

He's almost certainly mafia trying to buy time or who can't think of anything better to say.

[implosion]

I think I may have found Mirhawk's scumbuddy.

kraska77 (2): AGar, Zackstralkita
implosion (2): beeboy, Varsoon
Mirhawk (8): implosion, PeregrineV, Boem_u_dusi, Titus, Dunnstral, kraska77, Airick10, shannon
Dunnstral (1): Mirhawk
Boem_u_dusi (3): Wake88, podoboq, Transcend
PeregrineV (1): Almost50

Not Voting: None

The Mirhawk wagon at the height of its glory.

The vote on this wagon that I want to scrutinize the most is definitely Airick's. I'd wager either Airick alone or no scum on the wagon, with a very unlikely off chance of shannon.

In fact looking back I really think Mirhawk scum might paint Airick as scum quite well. The context of his vote is very interesting. He unvotes from the kraska wagon in 3730 and does not re-vote anywhere until he eventually votes mirhawk. Between then, with regards to Mirhawk:

-he directs a question to Mirhawk (not really important)
-he cites the emergence of the Mirhawk wagon as having taken momentum away from kraska
-some conversation in 3775, but no real speculation on Mirhawk's alignment here
-the third paragraph of 3962 in which he questions kraska's pushing Mirhawk over agar, and questions why peregrine hasn't had pressure on him like Mirhawk has
-3965 in which he again compares mirhawk to peregrine, stating that mirhawk has done more in the day and implying that peregrine is a better candidate for pressure due to that
-4052 where he suddenly joins the Mirhawk wagon. This action is in no way, IMO, telegraphed by his previous posts - the opinion that Mirhawk is a good wagon simply appears out of thin air. He gives reasons, but as far as i can tell those reasons ultimately existed at the start of the Mirhawk wagon as well.

And here's why that paints Airick as scum:

he should have seen those reasons when the Mirhawk wagon was fledgling. Take a look at the vote count right after he unvoted from the kraska wagon:

kraska77 (5): AGar, Titus, Zackstralkita, shannon, Wake88
implosion (3): beeboy, Varsoon, Transcend
Mirhawk (5): implosion, PeregrineV, Dunnstral, Boem_u_dusi, kraska77
Dunnstral (1): Mirhawk
PeregrineV (2): pobodoq, Almost50

Not Voting: Airick10

Now, if I'm a townie, this vote count screams to me "I need to focus on sorting kraska, mirhawk and maybe implosion and peregrine." And yet that sorting of mirhawk, using information that

was available at this time

, was delayed until the mirhawk wagon was starting to erupt as the primary wagon! It just reeks of scum who saw that a wagon on their buddy was going to come to the fore, saw that no scum were on it, and felt like there should be at least one busser. As a result, Airick-scum comes up with this Mirhawk scumread out of nowhere, when Airick-town would have evaluated the same information and came to the same conclusion earlier.

I still need to look more at Airick's reaction when he believed that Mirhawk was at L-1 earlier in the game (which on first glance also looks somewhat scummy? He gives the noncommittal "i'm not against the lynch but i wish voters on the wagon would give more information"). Etc.

[implosion]

dunn shooting mirhawk and him staying alive is also REALLY REALLY interesting especially if he flips mafia even night doctor but ugh i need to sleep.

[implosion]

I'm gonna guess Dunnstral, our 3-shot vig, shot Wake?

[implosion]

So yeah I actually have pretty strong townreads on everyone alive except Airick+AGar (varying in strength but etc) so...

Could people look at my Airick post from yesterday and let me know what they think?

Note that the main reason I townread A50 is now his claim in contrast to Mirhawk's but he could also still be scum. Need to do some VCA later.

(Also, greetings from a new time zone!)

[implosion]

Setiously though can people read and comment on my post on airick?

[implosion]

i mean i'm obviously on board.

VOTE: Airick

[implosion]

Also @zach.

If you have reasons for why AGar is town I'm happy to hear them. But saying "LOL I WAS RIGHT ON WAKE AND TITUS" is
1) not evidence for AGar being town, and
2) not relevant to me because I was also calling them both town the whole game with the very slight exception of some suspicion on wake yesterday.

[implosion]

If you can't see he's town then a fucking crystal ball couldn't show you that.

This is unfortunately not how mafia works.
Seemingly unlike you, I'm willing to admit that my opinions can be wrong.
I'm more than willing to listen to an argument.

[implosion]

@AGar.

1) How is it SK play to claim vig at all and make yourself an obvious scum target by publicly confirming yourself as not-mafia (even if he didn't confirm this until today technically it's obvious that he was trying to)
2)

This is 3rd party play, folks. This is why we have had wonky kill counts.

How does an SK explain wonky kill counts better than a vig? Do you think he'd have lied about targets as an SK?
3)

Mainly deflection, trying to pin scum between two players she knows would implicate her if we were nightkilled.

You describe Kraska's play this way. What about her literal constant pushing of flipped-scum Mirhawk from the get-go of her replacing in?

[implosion]

1) Confirming self as not-mafia and a killer, could be a traitor still? (I am so clinging to this I really want to be right about it)

Traitor is mafia-aligned.

Vigilantes cannot be mafia-aligned in normal games.

[implosion]

We certainly don't need to massclaim for that, Boem; all we'd need is a nurse claim. But I don't really think that's necessary. IMO, the only real way Varsoon is scum is if he's a mafia backup nurse, because his claim so far (that he became a nurse when the doctor died) does strictly require there to be a nurse out there. If he's lying about his roleclaim he's making a huge gambit that there's a nurse out there. Plus outing the nurse is tantamount to outing the doctor (since they will have become a doctor at this point).

I also don't think Varsoon's play is very consistent with mafia backup nurse. His play sort of says to me that he was approaching his role from the angle of "the doctor and the nurse are both confTown" which isn't an angle he'd necessarily even think of as a mafia, because he'd have it clear in his mind that confirmed role ≠ confirmed alignment.

Things on my to-do list with this game:
-ISO Mirhawk and his interactions towards every living slot, + vedith again as a comparison (high priority)
-VCA, specifically looking at every wagon that has existed on someone flipped and any wagons that existed at the same time
-Somehow convince Zach to make a cogent argument for AGar-town

[implosion]

I have a few reasons that I think beeboy is town.

I still think sickofit's iso looks somewhat townish, particularly 1287 in which the tone just strikes me as town.
beeboy's play has been wholly underwhelming. The way he claimed miller was somewhat townish (i doubt he read his predecessor's iso if he was scum, and claiming miller without reading his predecessor's iso would be kiiiiiinda risky). His refusal to really do anything has been frustrating but it doesn't feel particularly scummy to me.

It wouldn't surprise me

that much

if he was scum but I don't think anything really points to it. He's certainly a person I can be convinced on.

[implosion]

That's a good question and honestly it's kind of muddy atm.
Let's see...

I think my current "confident enough to continue ignoring for now" list is:
kraska77
Boem_u_dusi
Dunnstral
Varsoon
shannon
Zachstralkita (even though I've been feeling a little shaky on this lately, particularly if Dunnstral does actually suspect him).

Everyone in that list I think I have good enough reason to not consider right now at all. Leaving:

AGar
Almost50
beeboy
Airick10
Transcend

I've already mentioned I think beeboy is town, but not very strongly; Transcend is also very likely town given how his claiming went. That leaves AGar/Airick/A50. I guess the main thing(s) holding me back from suspecting A50 are:
-Why would scum be given both a jailkeeper and a commuter,
-Why would scum fakeclaim both a jailkeeper and an even-night doctor, and
-Why would A50 claim so quickly on d2.

The first of these, I suppose, is easily solved if A50 is simply a mafia roleblocker. The second is a

bit

stranger. But It isn't outside the realm of possibility by any means: A50 could have been planning a JK claim from the get-go as a scum roleblocker, and Mirhawk simply thought of even-night doc as a cover for 2-shot commuter. The third, idk. Maybe he thought the claim would look better. But it might be the biggest piece of evidence. That said, the fact that he's still alive on d4 is quite strange. It's certainly possible scum think that the doctor would have been on him. But shrug.

Airick I've made my stance clear on but I still need to read his refutation more closely.
AGar I've made my stance clear enough on but hoo boy do I wish I had some cogent arguments in favor of him being town to evaluate