Mini Normal 1809: Game Over

[Hoopla]

hi friends!

VOTE: hat

[Hoopla]

lots of completely serious players here.

i'm just here for a good time

[Hoopla]

i hate to interrupt my hat/egg gambit... maybe i will return to that later.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: bbmolla

[Hoopla]

i'm upset with bbmolla for disrupting the chill and festive vibe i'm trying to establish in this game.

ps. thanks to rob for respecting my flavor

[Hoopla]

although, having said that, it is weird that he considers bbmolla's accusation stupid, when he himself makes an equally stupid accusation on elyse just moments earlier.

[Hoopla]

what's your logic, friend?

[Hoopla]

i'm not mad, but i'm not inviting you to the chill voting bloc that

i am formally opening right now

to all friendly and cool people.

[Hoopla]

She votes me for not RVSing which implies she has an issue with people not RVSing(which would be stupid to begin with), but by doing that she herself didn't Rvs which makes her a hypocrite and as a result less trustworthy

Since Rvs voting isn't actually necessary anyway it's a bit of a way to force herself to look good by being proactive.

that is some seductively abstract logicking...

but it doesn't seem indicative of alignment. it seems indicative of not seeing potential hypocrisy. of the two accusations (hers and yours now), yours seems more like "forced proactivity" whatever that is

[Hoopla]

It's may not be completely alignment indicative but it's a good starting off point for me. She's a player I can't trust atm.

fair enough.

however, by your tones, i haven't established you as chill yet, but you're in the maybe section for

hoopla's town voting bloc

. only chill townies allowed (no mafia).

[Hoopla]

Sounds like a great town bloc.
I'd sign up, but I just don't care enough to join a town bloc.

I do have concern that you are hiding a pointless comment, with a buddying comment.
Going by this, you have Robbnva as a LeanTown already, correct?

in some ways it looks like he's doing good things early, but i consider his brisk start more a personality thing than alignment, based on vague long-ago memories of playing/reading games with him in it. so, if anything, i'd have him as null, but cool with the energy he is bringing.

as for the town bloc, don't be put off by me putting rob in the maybe pile. like a top-end bar or nightclub, you need to have a line waiting outside to lure in the quality people. hope you apply again when you're ready.

[Hoopla]

such a weird question to ask.

agree, and it seems incredibly town to me.

cmitc1, consider yourself invited to

the town bloc

. stick with me and we will get things done and make this thread great again.

[Hoopla]

to answer his question: a day before lylo is standard, though circumstances can occasionally call for earlier massclaims.

[Hoopla]

i encourage everyone to view our overeager newbie, currently alone and in the dark, searching for what to do and how to be useful to the town.

i don't think he could come across so strangely innocent if he were actually scum.

[Hoopla]

this bbmolla wagon is starting to build nicely, fueled by some cool and chills vibes by elyse.

why does that post seem scummy to you, cmitc1?

[Hoopla]

i'm not really in slam dunk mode like elyse yet. i think he has been overcompensating in his accusations and interactions with people, but the primary reason i am propelling this wagon is he isn't in my handful of town-ish reads, and for someone as shameless as me, that is plenty.

[Hoopla]

Protip: I'm not. I can cover when I'm wrong as scum by lying.

oooh, that's a spicy self-meta meatball!

[Hoopla]

I had such high hopes when I saw this player list.

Sigh.

personally i think this wagon is yielding great dividends and you'd be CRAZY not to get involved.

[Hoopla]

WELL, something has come up and i have to go and take care of it. i'll be back at full capacity in 24-36 hours, and hopefully i can squeeze a post or two in during that time.

ideally i wanted to push bbmolla's wagon a bit more, because he seems to crumble into a beautiful puddle of emotional appeals (which i love btw), and wanted to see who else jumped on board. but i won't be here for a while and don't want things to get too out of control,

given i now believe he is town

.

his stream of posts from 166-171 was an extremely lucid town meltdown. i genuinely believe him when he says he'll just lie as scum... and i don't think he just goes straight for a self-meta defense as scum, mostly because it's usually my last resort as town too when i feel like people are ganging up on me unfairly - i pretty much don't do it as scum, and i rarely see scum use this defense, just because it does look so fishy to most people.

UNVOTE:

[Hoopla]

as an aside to bbmolla, you gots to change up your town meta, because i imagine having to fake this sort of stuff as scum would be extremely taxing

but we can discuss your entry to

the town voting bloc

upon my return

anyways peace

[Hoopla]

ok, i have RETURNED

i've done a quick read over the pages i've missed and the main concern i have is about the lack of serious wagons that have been generated. a lot of people are posting noise and are not attempting to further the game through their votes, which is bad given we've already used 30% of day 1's allotted time. the most important things that happen on day 1 post-claim, and we NEED time to analyse that/potentially switch and create a counterwagon or whatever else. so start voting people who are realistic wagons.

on this topic, i'm not sure what to think of elyse. initially i had her as quite town before bbmolla decided to conftown himself, and though i still find her zeal for that vote OK and not suspicious, it is concerning that she talks about willing to compromise and search for new targets yet has done nothing in the last 8 pages and STILL hasn't unvoted bbmolla despite acknowledging he isn't going to happen today.

i'm liking the composition of the vedith wagon: bbmolla, cmitc1 and house make for a fairly town trio, so i am going to jump on board given i don't have a town read on vedith.

VOTE: vedith

more to come...

[Hoopla]

random aside while i read some more:

rob seems really fixated on scumtelling anyone for people potentially hypocritical/illogical. you should try looking for more meaningful things related to alignment.

[Hoopla]

house and molla aren't realistic lynch chances today. move on and vote someone else instead of being dead weight.

[Hoopla]

oh ok, you're one of those people.

[Hoopla]

I really hate when long time users of this site refuse to vote other long term users of the site for what is obviously outside influences which is technically against the rules.

Just cause house and molla have been here a long time and you are probably chummy with them or have been at some point doesn't change the fact that what molla did can in no way be looked at as a town act. It can't even be looked at as a null act.

It was a delibarate and calculated deception.

i was on his wagon to begin with and promoting it along with elyse. i think he is town now based on the belief i think he is simply unable to (or wouldn't feel compelled to) melt down and resort to such defensive emotional appeals as scum. that is where i gained my read of him as town. the accusation that i'm treating him differently because he's a long-term user is laughable and shows you only see what you what you want to see.

we have different opinions about what is scummy and what looks town, that is natural and part of the game. but compromise is also part of the game when your target isn't a realistic chance and we have limited time. it's clear to me the window of time has closed for bbmolla's lynch d1, so you can chill on his wagon by yourself and essentially be a voteless player today or you can influence the game elsewhere. up to you.

[Hoopla]

Put something up for discussion if you want to sideline the slapfest, don't just gripe about it.

It doesn't make me want to townread you by throwing out empty non-game related content complaining about non-game related content.

i agree with this, except i will go one further and say this is actually suspicious. it looks like scum using the distraction that rob is creating to look good and be the voice of reason. and to be clear, it is rob who is fueling pretty much all of this - everyone else doesn't agree with him and is trying to reason/compromise with him.

[Hoopla]

the depressing thing about this is, i think rob is probably town. town, but also a huge liability.

[Hoopla]

there are far too many underperforming players so far who i don't have much of a read on. thankfully, most of the people posting a lot i have town reads on, so i have something to work with here, but we need more from chaosomega, blankface, vedith, masquerade and wake88. add grendel to that list too considering most of his content centers around that list of questions.

i'm less sold on cmitc1 being very town for his innocent questioning after letting that digest for a while, but still won't consider lynching him today. bbmolla is town and rob probably is too. house i'm leaning town on, and for the most part i am liking what he's posting - he's logical and overall seems like a positive influence on the game. i always tend to get paranoia about players like this though, as they're usually quite deceptive as scum and are hard to lynch. but given there are so many lurkers and so much white noise and weird play going on, i'm not interesting in losing his stabilizing influence on the game any time soon.

everyone else i'm happy to see a wagon on and work it out as its going. i think this is what the game needs to propel it forward and get the lurkers posting.

[Hoopla]

good stuff everybody.

if vedith isn't suitable to your tastes, i also recommend a blankface wagon for a little competition.

[Hoopla]

rob has more than a quarter of the posts in a 13 player game. as far as i'm concerned, he's said his piece for today. we all pretty much know where he stands, so we don't need it repeated.

the only thing i'm really interested in hearing from him is an answer to this question from house:

Hey Robb, how do you react when the person you're 110% sure is scum flips town? Do you even try to apologize for being a gigantic waste of time, or do you play "blame the victim"?

because i'm sure this must happen on a regular basis for rob and i am genuinely curious how he rationalizes an absoutely certain scumread flipping town.

[Hoopla]

answer my 425, rob.

[Hoopla]

what do you usually do when your 100% obvscum reads are wrong?

[Hoopla]

surely, the bangings against the wall must be frequent enough in your career to remember that maybe your 100% isn't 100% after all?

[Hoopla]

I see scummy behavior and I lynch scummy behavior. That's how i play mafia.

the problem is, what you consider scummy i don't consider scummy, and seemingly many others here don't.

it is ok to disagree on things. it isn't ok to spaz out and be stubborn out of spite because you can't convince others of your perspective. learning to compromise is an important part of the game, because if everyone plays with your attitude we get nowhere when townies' opinions aren't overlapping completely.

you are the only one who thinks molla is scum. it's time to move on.

[Hoopla]

I immediately counter claim anything Robb claims.

you're claiming stupidity?

[Hoopla]

are you really 39 years old?

[Hoopla]

everyone please stop talking to rob. all this is doing is making it harder for the people behind on the game to catch up.

i think we've all done our best to reason with him. so, well done everyone. but enough.

[Hoopla]

i genuinely don't know what is going on now.

i am mostly waiting for the non-contributors to contribute and over-contributors to stop.

lets switch up the vedith/blankface wagons:

UNVOTE:
VOTE: blankface

[Hoopla]

Cmon hoopla if you are town you have to see house is clearly scum

i haven't really been reading your posts recently, to be honest.

but i'm sure whatever you're claiming happened, it's incorrect.

[Hoopla]

Do you think Vedith is town now?

he's still in my small pool of lynch targets, but his wagon has stalled recently, so i'm seeing if a blankface wagon will create some new buzz.

ideally i'd like a blankface/vedith wagon battle today.

[Hoopla]

molla, there is a lot of nonsense going on, so we have to work together to create some clarity.

i hereby relaunch the

beautiful luxurious town bloc

:

members:

hoopla
bbmolla

maybe pile:

house
cmitc1
grendel seems ok

~~

who are your town reads, molla?

[Hoopla]

@hoopla:

Why is Grendel in your maybe pile?

He's voting me because I prefer being scum over town, as if we can ask the mod for a preferred alignment before the game starts.

He's totally married to this silly assumption, and completely misreps my play to fit that theory.

gut feeling.

i think his attempts to gain reads from his random questions is flawed but a genuinely attempt at scumhunting - it's abstract sure, but i tend to think scum don't do things like that as often. they tend to hunt in more conventional ways.

[Hoopla]

*THIS IS THE FINAL POST I'M SAYING TO ROB*

Please stop drawing me and others into inane conversations that span multiple pages. It's antitown in so many ways because you can't let a conversation go by without you being at the center of it. BE QUIET and let others say their piece for once. Half the players are in perpetual catchup mode or disengaged with the game, and it's all your doing. You're making it not fun because you refuse to accept that any other player has differing opinions to you, and when they do, you make hyperbolic accusations that they're playing outside their wincon, are conspiring because of join-date or are being antitown.

This isn't cool and you do it in almost every game you play in. You have a long history of modkills, replacing out due to thinking the town is stupid and not being able to control your temper, self-hammering as town, and generally whining and complaining when things don't go your way.

You may think you're god's gift to mafia and your reads are better than everyone else's, but you still need to work with the town and persuade them, but whenever I or anyone else reads your posts, it does the exact opposite and makes me automatically believe the other side is probably correct because you simply have zero credibility.

A small collection of Rob's "100% scumread I CAUGHT YOU SCUM LIAR HAHAHAA oh wait you're town nevermind" moments:

Spoiler: Open 414 (flipped town)

you obviously making up lies.

am i willing to get lynched so I can vengekill you?

100% bring it on bro. let's do this shit. EVERYONE VOTE ME NOW!!!

even though I would rather not self vote, I want this vengekill so bad right now. please let me do it.

Vote: robbnva

Spoiler: Mini 1333 (a snapshot of a game-derailing argument with another townie)

so there

LIAR LIAR YOUR PANTS ARE ON FIRE.

i don't even need to go any furtuer. I just caught tierce in a BOLDFACE LIE

but I will go further.

not only did you bring it up, you tried to argue with me when I said I don't want to lynch nero today because I don't think scum would do that.

Spoiler: Mini 1471 Another resort to accepting his lynch in order to get his target killed (townie btw, in case you didn't guess)

I want to be lynched if you promise me you will lynch bauss tomorrow.

I'm not going to bother linking the modkills, ragequits, self-hammer as town and everything else. The point of this point is to show rob that you are indeed fallible and wrong sometimes. Admittedly you are also right occasionally, but so is a broken clock. The problem is when you are wrong, you single-handedly drag the game into the mire for town and allow the scum to hide in the distraction you're creating. Stop being so egotistical and putting your own reads above everyone else's and ACTUALLY LET THEM TALK without you saying your piece every page.

There are plenty of games where you catch people in so-called lies, or hypocrisies, but they turn out to be town. You have to look at the motivation behind why these things are happening. Should town lie? No. Should town hold contradictory opinions? No. But town also shouldn't do all of the stuff you do that I've listed above, yet lo and behold, you do it every game. I suspect if you were in a game with a clone of yourself, you'd be scumreading each other the entire game for the antitown bullshit you submit towns to.

I didn't want to post something like this until after the game, because I know it'll be a distraction now, but today is already a shambles so this is my last attempt to get through to rob and get him to chill out and stop derailing the game.

Anyways peace.

[Hoopla]

reading this last page...

mod:

please just replace him.

[Hoopla]

It's clear to anyone with a functioning brain stem (sorry to exclude you, but you did that here, not me) that I wanted you replaced and only accepted that you'd be modkilled AFTER YOU SAID IT WAS GOING TO HAPPEN.

rob, i agree with this version of events.

[Hoopla]

Can we please fucking move on now?

I agree, it's time to make this town great again.

Blankface, who are your reads? I think I've lost them in the rubble.

[Hoopla]

good hustling from house.

it really is time to get a move on. my number one pet peeve in mafia is waiting until the last day to compromise, as it leaves no time for a rebound wagon in the event of us wanting to switch.

vote for blankface or vedith everyone.

[Hoopla]

oh wait, it's wake trying to get us going too, haha. one of you guys change your avatar!

[Hoopla]

House, Rob, Molla aren't being lynched today. There simply isn't enough support. If there had been, we definitely would have seen it after these last few days.

Vedith and Blankface are good choices that most people seem open to.

[Hoopla]

I don't often get good scumreads on D1 and find an easier time spotting townies, so I have a tendency to push D1 wagons on anyone not-town - today is no exception given most of the player list simply hasn't posted enough.

You act as if Vedith or Blankface have been around to be interacted with at all. Blankface in particular has been asked for his reads instead of his refereeing several times, including by me, to no avail. I genuinely have no idea who he finds suspicious. Vedith doesn't really directly interact with me despite him voting for me - do you find that suspicious too? If so, why single me and Wake out?

[Hoopla]

If you had to choose between Vedith or Blankface who would it be and why?

Where are you on Egg and Elyse Hoopla?

I'd probably slightly prefer Blankface as Vedith occasionally pops in to respond to the pressure, whereas Blankface isn't really doing anything at all.

Egg has been flying under the radar and fits the stereotypical model of what I see a lot of scum doing on D1, though I have no specific instances of scumminess in any one post. I'd be more willing to check him out and interrogate him if he weren't going on V/LA now. A project for D2.

I thought Elyse was more town when I thought Molla was scum and she was interacting with him, now I think that isn't so true. My slight suspicion on Egg and Elyse are products of process of elimination in some ways, as I have a lot more town reads than usual so far. Annoyingly, Rob's flip doesn't really give us much more info at the moment, since I think we all knew he was town, so nothing has changed (except losing a good PR D1).

My personal preference early in the game is to lynch lurking or underperforming non-town looking players rather than someone like Elyse who is here regularly, as her alignment will be easier to discover in future days than someone like Blankface.

[Hoopla]

this is essentially a matter of wifom at the moment, but i believe vedith would have fake-claimed a PR as scum here. he seems very much like a VT giving up to me - scum usually aren't so chill with their own demise.

i know towns don't have a tendency to let VT claims live, but it's exceedingly rare for scum to claim VT upon being the first wagon forced to claim. does anyone else share these sentiments?

[Hoopla]

vanilla townie

[Hoopla]

how are you doing cmitc1? do you have thoughts about the game?

[Hoopla]

yeah. who do you think is scum?

also, what do you think about vedith's claim?

[Hoopla]

it means he's town.

[Hoopla]

UNVOTE: Vedith

why...?

it's less than two days until deadline. make a choice.

[Hoopla]

It's hard to tell how meaningful Vedith eclipsing Blankface's wagon is. My gut instinct is Blank is town too. There was a lot of movement and stalling between the two wagons, to the point where it seemed like scum didn't care which one died, which implies Blank is town. I think if he were scum, we'd have seen less of a challenge on Blank's wagon and Vedith's wagon would have been piled on more earlier when Blank was faint lynch risk. I find on D1 scum tend to be preventative like that, rather than letting it get to a stage where they need to choose between bussing or deliberately voting a town over an under pressure scum.

[Hoopla]

VOTE: Hoopla

what's your theory, elyse?

[Hoopla]

I found this a very strange reason to townread Vedith. It's weak, and she barely pushes it. For someone who championed either Vedith or BlankFace all day, her townread on Vedith should have made her go full steam ahead on BlankFace. It seemed to me like she wanted the Vedith lynch to still go through but didn't want to be associated with it.

The remainder of her posts on D1 are not urgent at all...the only thing she really does is tell cmit to make a choice, which is obvious for anyone to do at this point.

Personally, it just seemed like a classic VT-give up. There was no scum survival tendencies, which usually manifests itself with a PR roleclaim or a greater sense of desperation to escape the noose.

She was the engineer behind the Vedith vs BlankFace deathmatch and didn't seem to care which one died. This would be fine if she scumread both of them, but she thought Vedith's claim made him town. So why was she content in saying "I think Vedith is probably town for his claim" and then remain silent and let him be lynched anyway?

tl;dr
Hoopla steered the lynches toward two townies, didn't care which one was lynched, made a half-assed defense of Vedith to make herself look better, and did nothing to stop her townread from being lynched. I expected more "GET YOUR VOTES ON BLANKFACE!" from her.

To be honest, I don't trust my (or other people's) scum reads on D1 before any claims or flips, so I tend to spend my time finding town and fostering compromise because I find this more meaningful on D1 -- we already had the game blow out because of one townies' unrelenting obsession with following their pet scumread, so I was in damage control mode. My influence of funneling the votes onto Vedith and Blankface was an attempt to further the game by adding more pressure to slots that actually had a chance of being lynched, and then to reevaluate upon their wagons building and/or roleclaim -- these two to me seemed to have the greatest air of suspicion over them, so I went with that.

In hindsight, I regret not including Masquerade on this list too, but to achieve any meaningful information-yielding wagons, choosing more than two usually doesn't work as well. I maintain he seemed less suspected overall at that point in time, though, and the fact that nobody really hustled at all to include Masquerade in the wagon battle despite me ignoring him actually seems like a legitimately good reason for Masquerade being scum, even if it implicates me in the process.

As for my lack of urgency and yelling, again, I don't really have a defense for that other than to say it's not really my playstyle. In certain towns, channeling some manic energy to switch to an entirely new direction is sometimes possible, but there was no way this was happening in this town with so many people lurking. I will add, this whole deadline lynch scene is EXACTLY why I push for compromises on scumreads far earlier in the day than most, so we actually have time to switch once real information (wagons/claims) comes into the game. In the end we had to settle for a mediocre choose between two prob-townies, and it is true I didn't really care that much at that point.

[Hoopla]

To summarise that brief paragraph on Masquerade in my last post. I think the fact nobody chimed in to bring Masquerade into the mix of competing wagons when I was trying to narrow the pool is very meaningful. If Blank was scum and Masq were town, I'd expect more resistance on a) the Blank/Vedith duel and b) not including Masq.

Masq scum/Blank town seems more likely based on how D1 panned out.

VOTE: Masquerade

[Hoopla]

so, killthestory, you know cmitc1 from another site? can you talk about what his gameplay is usually like there?

[Hoopla]

would you say his garbage nothing posting is indicative of alignment at all? does he seem to try harder as town or scum, or have any good games as either alignment?

[Hoopla]

why are you voting him then?

[Hoopla]

well, i think i'm pretty much done with this conversation. you're lucky your predecessor has banked a decent amount of town cred.

[Hoopla]

Since D1, my solid town read on cmitc1 has evaporated somewhat. After seeing more of his play he really just seems like a placid, uninterested newbie, and I don't think you can deduce his alignment from classical tells you'd use on most other players. There is just no purpose and motivation in his play and I think it's just the way he is.

He should only be lynched if there are no other attractive options. Hopefully we can PoE the game around him, so his alignment becomes obvious that way.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, you are one of the few things keeping this game together. Can you explain a little more why you think D1 gives us Blanktown and Masqscum rather than vice versa?

It's not out of the question that Blank could be scum, but it seems like it'd be harder to establish a wagon duel D1 with scum in it so easily, particularly if Masq is town. I imagine scum would be throwing Masq's hat into the ring too or at least stalling the Blank push/not allowing a Vedith vs. Blank duel to occur in the first place.

Why is the fact the Masq wagon happening today as opposed to yesterday concerning to you? It seems like the tide is turning in a pretty natural way post-D1 flips. The composition of this wagon looks town fueled, with perhaps one person suspecting Masq is in trouble and bussing early -- Egg most likely, as I'm reading Elyse as townish and BBmolla too. Although, I'd really like molla to do more this game, rather than coast on the defense I've given him so far.

[Hoopla]

Sera, if Blankface is scum, who are his partners? Were they on the Vedith wagon? Who are likely candidates?

[Hoopla]

KtS confirm you're claiming a guilty or I'm ignoring it

of course he isn't. he's just bored and doesn't want to read the game.

does this even need to be said?

[Hoopla]

Am I correct in thinking that you're town reading everybody except Mask, Egg, and Cmit1? Is this your chosen scum team?
What do you think of Wake/Seraphim?

mmm, i'm not really town-reading you and although Wake was ok D1 and Sera has been good today, I think it's possible that slot is scum.

[Hoopla]

I just realised it's less than 4 days to deadline, so it is compromise time again.

@ Everyone:

If you don't want to vote Masquerade, put your vote on someone else with votes and make a case for it.

[Hoopla]

Also, regardless of what flip we get today, we should massclaim tomorrow imo.

[Hoopla]

alright, claim time please!

[Hoopla]

MASQUERADE, YOU NEED TO CLAIM WHO YOUR KILL CHOICE WAS RIGHT NOW

[Hoopla]

if you still have your kill, it's absolutely essentially you shoot someone tonight to put us back in odd-numbers tomorrow so we don't have to no-lynch.

this better be a true claim.

[Hoopla]

UNVOTE:

for now.

please hurry up masquerade.

[Hoopla]

Grendel, if Masquerade is a vig and still has a shot, this is a CONFIRMABLE role with a second kill tonight. Scum probably won't have a roleblocker this game, as a blocking role has already flipped town, so we absolutely should see another kill tonight if Masq is truthful. If no extra kill happens tonight, sure, we lynch him tomorrow (or if he claims he shot last night, we can lynch him today).

Masquerade is a pointless lynch today, when it's highly likely we'll know his alignment tomorrow.

[Hoopla]

Wouldn't scum have a role blocker since town had a jailkeeper? Maybe I'm used to different setups, but having a jail keeper makes mafia role blocker a confirmed role in the game right?

Assuming Mask is a vig, and scum has a role blocker then Mask is not confirmable.

I'm still inclined to think he is scum anyways tho.

Because having two blocking roles in one setup opens the door to paradoxes and messier night interactions, as such, mods tend to avoid doing it. I just did a quick scan of 13p Mini Normals with Jailkeepers. There were 30 games with a town jailkeeper and only four of those had scum RB's too, so I think it's highly likely that Masq will get a shot off tonight if he indeed has one.

If you think he is scum, fine, but lets lynch him tomorrow after he's had a chance to confirm himself tonight. Massclaim tomorrow might also narrow the game down enough to be able to tell whether his claim fits in the possible setup.

[Hoopla]

My backup choice is probably Egg. This is pretty much a process-of-elimination choice. He's been flying under the radar and hasn't had much suspicion leveled his way -- it's a pretty standard model of scum behaviour early. Just doing enough to tick the boxes, but hasn't done anything meaningful.

Most others I've had some sort of town read on at some point in the game. And I think others may feel similarly about Egg, so he's a realistic lynch. If that doesn't go through, I'd probably *sigh* lynch cmitc1, since he has enough support and probably has at least a random chance of being scum (+ getting rid of him before lylo would be good). We're pretty close to deadline (again), so I think these are the only two options, barring some flash wagon elsewhere.

[Hoopla]

I'll get the ball rolling.

VOTE: Egg

[Hoopla]

Why are you townreading him?

[Hoopla]

why would there be a fucking 1-shot vig in this game

because they're a relatively common role?

worse case scenario, we lynch him tomorrow when he doesn't deliver.

[Hoopla]

bbmolla, who do you want to lynch instead?

[Hoopla]

sigh

[Hoopla]

why would there be a fucking 1-shot vig in this game

Why wouldn't there?

Why would you doubt molla's confidence about the lack of vig, when your stance on Masq is this:

Probably still Masq, but Cmit would be my second choice.

When you say

that

^ the view you're implicitly espousing is you don't believe the vig claim, yet you're questioning why molla doesn't believe the claim?

This sort of fencesitty wishy-washy under the radar posting is exactly what I was talking about with regards to Egg. On the surface, it looks like he's chiming in and offering content and questions, but he's just asking them to fit in and say the right things, not because he's genuinely curious or trying to solve/progress the game.

Lynch the Egg everyone.

[Hoopla]

No.

If you are town and have used your shot on N1, and you don't tell us NOW, you get lynched tomorrow no matter what. There is no downside to telling us if you have a shot left.

[Hoopla]

This is your last chance to claim a shot attempt on N1.

If you refuse to say, I'm going to assume you are either scum or still have your shot. If there is one kill tonight, you're 100% getting lynched tomorrow, so if you're town you better vig scum in case they try a no-kill gambit.

[Hoopla]

There is an outside chance of a scumRB/Masq-Vig scenario, but that is less likely than you being scum who can't back up his claim. So, you see, you must be lynched tomorrow if you can't produce the goods tonight.

I simply cannot think of any other extenuating circumstances that would warrant you to not fully claim right now.

[Hoopla]

I agree with the above -- the only way he's claiming that role is if he was fed it by his partners, but if his partners were going to feed him something, i don't think it'd be a weak neighbouriser. That seems pretty obviously town to me. It makes Masq's claim look a bit dodgier by contrast, but I still don't think he's the lynch today.

I guess that means we have a scum roleblocker? That is strange. The only other possibility I can think of is if Elyse is something like an Ascetic or Commuter, which can't be targeted by cmitc. Regardless, we don't have enough time to figure this out, so I think both of these claims live today and we need a speedwagon elsewhere.

Egg's nonchalance to being lynched is starting to affect me and makes me think he might actually be town. I'm all for voting Grendel or I guess Blankface. There aren't really many choices left, to be honest.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Grendel

Everyone needs to make a new vote in their next post so we can see what lynches are possible. We are getting dangerously close to deadline yet again!

[Hoopla]

cmitc, target someone else tonight. Masq, vig someone tonight.

Mafia cannot block both if they have a RB and you're both town.

[Hoopla]

Personally, I think cmitc should try and hit a townie tonight, in case Masq is actually town and still has a shot left. We don't want three deaths tonight, so cmitc, pick someone you really think is town to neighbourize. Don't tell us, so mafia don't know whether to block you or Masq (if they have a block).

[Hoopla]

not giving my target may be a bit risky.

would giving you 3 people i think are town, and saying i will neiborize one be good?

cmitc, i agree with this. do this in your next post.

[Hoopla]

As for this NEW claim, jeez, why does it all have to come out so close to deadline?

Just thinking for a moment, but if scum have a RB which seems possible based on cmitc's claim, having the two vigs shoot each other might leave us in the same situation as today if the real one is blocked.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla what the ever loving fuck are you doing this game

what's your issue, molla?

[Hoopla]

MASQUERADE: YOU NEED TO FULLY CLAIM NOW

[Hoopla]

I want to hammer mask.

I don't believe their claim.

Grendel, why didn't you hammer when you had the chance? ^

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, with Masq and Grendel shooting each other and Cmit doing his thing, scum can't block both. I say we try both plans and see what happens.

Hmm, although it's not completely impossible that we have two 1-shot Vigs, we should be operating under the assumption that one of the claims is false and that scum has an RB. If we follow this plan, the real vig probably gets blocked leaving a Grendel/Masq 50/50 tomorrow while cmitc can be nightkilled by scum.

I don't think this is a good result.

[Hoopla]

Analysing which vig claim is real:

For the most part it's unusual for scum to fakeclaim vig, as this really only buys you one more night before you get lynched -- that's all this claim does. So, who is more likely to want that extra phase of being alive? Masquerade was under pressure at L-1 and forced to claim -- this claim is great to allow you to survive one more day, as towns will naturally want to test the claim and will back down. If Grendel is scum, what motivation does he have to counterclaim vig after just two votes on him now? He had a chance of being lynched today, but it was nowhere near a certainty even without claiming.

Grendel is either a vig, or he's making a strange counterclaim, when something like Cop or any other investigation role will work just as well (if not better). Occam's razor: I think Grendel has to be truthful here, as he was under less immediate pressure on his claim, as such, he has less incentive as scum to paint himself into a corner with his claim. Masquerade was already in a corner, so a vig fakeclaim makes more sense from him.

Now that I reason this out, I'm actually pretty confident of Masq-scum/Grendel-town, and really don't think Grendel does this as scum in this situation very often at all. I'd even suggest both vigs being true is more likely than Grendel being scum here.

[Hoopla]

If we lynch scum today, I may target a more scummy player (I will leave a post explaining who it is).

If we lynch a mafia RB today, target your scummiest read -- and say who that would be now.

If we lynch anything except a mafia RB, target a pool of your three most townie players (not including Grendel/Masquerade) -- and say who that would be now.

[Hoopla]

UNVOTE:

I think we have to lynch the best chance of scum today (even though it's tempting to let this all play out at night), and to me, the best chance of doing this is nailing the 50/50 between the vigs. If the scum has a RB, things won't get solved on its own at night. We'll probably still have to decide between Grendel/Masquerade and cmitc might be dead, so we have to take matters into our own hands today and lynch the scum.

I will be voting Masquerade today, but I don't want to put him at L-1 just yet in case of a hammer cutting off discussion. It goes without saying that Masq needs to fullclaim right now on the outside chance that something can point to him as town (I can't think of anything off the top of my head, but you never know).

[Hoopla]

Glad Seraphim is on the same page as me here. I'm slightly paranoid about a two real vigs universe, because if this is true, we pretty much lose the game. But to safeguard against that possibility will mean we won't be playing the percentages today, and we will lose more often in universes where only one vig is real.

Since it's most there is only one vig, we should play in a way to maximise our chances if that assumption is true... and we greatly increase our chances of winning by nailing the lying vig today.

[Hoopla]

Since it's most

likely

there is only one vig*

[Hoopla]

should we discuss targets?

Now that I think about it, since we're lynching a vig claim today, I think you should be targeting a pool of three townies regardless.

- If the lynch today is a Mafia RB, then the other vig claim must be true and can shoot tonight. If this happens, we don't want three deaths at night, so you should try and choose a townie.

- If the lynch today is a different type of Mafia, then the other vig claim must be true, however scum may still be able to interfere with our night actions, so you shouldn't have just one target, as mafia will have too much flexibility in their night choices. Again, you should pick from a pool of three town players.

- If the lynch today is a town vig, well, we chose wrong and you are probably dying tonight. For the sake of simplicity you should just pick three town players today.

~~

So, who are your top three town reads?

[Hoopla]

Also, another possibility I haven't considered yet is a Rolestopper for either town or mafia. And given it looks like our mod is open to funky sort of roles like a Weak Neighbouriser, I think a Rolestopper is a decent chance of existing in this game -- perhaps not as likely as a Roleblocker, but definitely something we should be considering.

This would allow one mafia to be immune to a vig kill tonight if there is a Mafia Rolestopper. It also implies that Elyse was rolestopped on N1, which isn't a bad choice if there is a Town Rolestopper, but paints her as scummy if there is a Mafia Rolestopper.

[Hoopla]

So you guys wouldn't be opposed to me targeting KillTheStory even though House was everybody's pet town read?

I was expecting some resistance to post 1061 tbh.

Grendel. After I sat down and thought about it, I came to the conclusion that you're probably town, but thanks for that post outlining your thought processes. Also, rereading the day's play, seeing Masquerade talk about being an alt of an experienced player makes me even more sure that claim was specifically designed to grant himself survival for one more phase -- hopefully this means he's the Roleblocker/Rolestopper.

As for targeting Killthestory -- I still think that slot is town, so I wouldn't shoot there, but I trust you to make your decision tonight. Although, I think you'll only be able to shoot if we lynch the scum RB today OR there's a scum RS and you shoot the RS specifically. For that reason, if we don't lynch mafia power today and the scum power is actually an RS, you shouldn't shoot Elyse as she's likely to be RS'ed again if they have one.

~~

Looking at the wagons today, I don't think there was a mafia plan overnight to double-bus Masquerade, because if there was, I think he'd claim something with more longterm survival value than 1-shot Vig. For this reason, I believe there was scum pushing cmitc and other wagons, and once you remove Grendel from the equation, Blankface is the key candidate here.

Imo, the scumteam is Masq/Blank with one of my early townreads being wrong:

- Elyse fits if scum has a Rolestopper.
- Molla fits too as an early distancing vote for Masq today, but also keeping open a possibility to switch to cmitc. This means I was wrong about my meta read on him early, but when you weigh it against his entire game doing nothing but happily basking in my town read on him, it wouldn't be that much of a mindfuck.
- House was still posting sitewide after his replacement, and I hate to speculate on replacement reasons, but it's way more likely he replaces out of this game as town than as scum who are crushing it. He was also really town regardless of this tell, and killthestory's joking about and not reading the game just seems like annoying town -- scum usually aren't so brazen about not caring to contribute to the game.
- Egg could still fit, but I'm a sucker for brutally honest town talking about their scumhunting inadequacies and volunteering to be lynched. Seems pretty town.
- Seraphim is a possibility for the one scum not fueling the Masq wagon if it isn't Blank (he did jump on later when it was obvious it was a Masq lynch today), but I think he has been quite protown in his motivations today and usually when I find people mirroring my thoughts about the game, it is a good sign.

My guess for the third is Molla based on today's play and I think the reason why I haven't been reconsidering him as a possibility is because I really wanted him to be town because I wanted Rob to be wrong. Without that one tell, he'd be pretty scummy in my eyes.

Masquerade
Blank or Sera (80/20)
Molla or Elyse (depends on the scum power)

That's pretty much the way I see it right now.

[Hoopla]

and I'm not inclined to trust Cmitc1's claim.

why don't you believe his claim?

how on earth would newbie cmitc1 come up with a weak neighbouriser claim?

[Hoopla]

Hoopla House was force replaced, see ban announcements.

oh was he? i retract that tell then, though i think his and killthestory's play have still been very town.

[Hoopla]

your play after masq's claim was kinda gross though hoopla

how so? i think i am breaking this game wide open.

[Hoopla]

throwing this out there, why would cmit be roleblocked

I think it's more likely ascetic or rolestopper making elyse scum

Because scum intended to keep cmitc1 alive until lylo or when he was lynched, as such, they are minimising risk and RB'ing him in case he has power? Doesn't seem like a stretch.

My pet theory is scum having a rolestopper though, and Elyse being protected by her buddies from kills/investigations as she was looking the most likely to go deep in the game.

Either seem possible. Lucky for you molla, I want Masquerade and Blank to die first, which will tell me if Elyse is scum before we try and find the tricky third scum.

[Hoopla]

your play is better now I just don't like your backtracking and I don't like how I'm missing a scum member in every scum team I can think of, which would likely make you scum cause you're one of the players I hold in highest regard in this game

A lot of new information has come into the game and I am trying to piece together what is happening as best as I can. And then even means reevaluating my read on you.

[Hoopla]

Me too.

Once cmitc claims his pool of townies he's targeting, I think we can end today. I'd love Grendel to take a shot at Blank, btw.

[Hoopla]

If Masquerade flips scum, you or Grendel are the NK, so don't pick Grendel. Choose someone else.

[Hoopla]

^that's good, cmitc.

~~

VOTE: Masquerade

Hopefully we lynch the scum PR today.

[Hoopla]

Grendel, what did you do last night?

[Hoopla]

He left a message before he died in the neighborhood to look at kill, he thought kill may be connected with masq because kill was saying the masq wagon was scum motivated

why would a neighbourhood thread be started before the nightkill resolves? this is a ballsy move if you're scum...

[Hoopla]

Looking at the Natural Action Resolution page which is being used for this game, it seems murky whether or not a dying neighbouriser would be able to send a message within its newly created neighbourhood. Looking at the Neighbouriser page specifically, the normal guidelines on that page say:

"They may begin speaking to each other at the end of the Night, or at the beginning of the next Night..."

The above implies that the talking begins at the END of the night, once all the actions have been resolved, which means cmitc1 would be dead. Why would the mod let a dead cmitc1 send molla messages?

"Any players added to a Neighborhood are added at the start of the next day, regardless of whether the Neighborizer lives or not, and their Role Name is not changed."

This implies he still gets added to a neighbourhood though. But I don't see why cmitc1 would have been allowed to have been talking in it already...

[Hoopla]

Grendel is confirmed innocent as far as I'm concerned. So, I don't agree with no-lynching as we'll just end up with the same lynching odds tomorrow anyhow.

[Hoopla]

It's not mylo, it's 2:6 at the moment (ruling out the miniscule chance of a no-killing SK). If we lynch today and mafia kill tonight, tomorrow is 2:4 which is mylo.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla the NAR seems pretty straightforward that neighborizer comes before kill

Yes, I know. But it also says communication will only begin at the end of the night. Cmitc would be dead by then.

[Hoopla]

Did he say anything else, molla? Or just one message in one post?

[Hoopla]

oh okay, so he actually got a neighbourhood created at the beginning of the game and then you could be invited to it?

[Hoopla]

well, the 14th was the end of N1. so i don't know why the neighbourhood would be created then?

[Hoopla]

So my kill didn't go through...

Hoopla, are you bulletproof?

I'm not BP or Ascetic or anything that could stop a kill.

I don't think I'd be rolestopped, so it seems most likely scum has a roleblocker. Now that cmitc has been confirmed town, we KNOW some sort of blocking role exists in the game.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla said THE mafia PR as in she knows there's only one.

Also why would scum block Grendel if he was going to shoot town?

I think from the context of my posts, it is obvious I am talking about the scum power capable of blocking and interfering with our actions. If they have an encryptor or something else, so be it, but most of the time, the scum will just have a roleblocker/rolestopper here -- and really, a blocking role is the only one we really needed to worry about. If you think it's likely or at all possible the scum has two blocking roles when the town already has a JK too, then I don't know what to say.

Me being shot last night would actually be beneficial for the town, as it removes me as a possible mislynch today/tomorrow and doesn't cost the town one of our two chances at hitting scum.

[Hoopla]

I also doubt molla is lying unless someone counterclaims which I highly doubt will happen. No way scum could have guessed that cmitc1 would have chosen molla for sure and gambled a no-kill against it. Worst case scenario, no one is killed last night and we have masons running around. Nasty. Nah, scum probably just decided to kill an investigative role, consequences be damned.

I want to ask one more question to the mod before I sign him off as town:

MOD: Would a Weak Neighbourizers' action still succeed on a mafioso despite dying?

[Hoopla]

Confirmed scum, Mask, didn't think Rob was town. I pretty sure he unvoted Rob some 200-300 posts after post 450, yet... doesn't change that fact that Mask was pushing OB town for a dumb reason, and nobody called him out on it later. It also doesn't change the fact that Mask was voting OB town Rob While Hoopla was condensing the wagons. So Hoopla can't say she didn't notice Mask doing it. If she thought that everybody was on the same page regarding Robbvna why didn't she think Mask's vote was off. At least it would've made Mask good D1 lynch material like Vedith or Blank. Who was the instigator of that day's wagons, well Hoopla of course.

Aside from that I didn't like her interactions with Mask yesterday EoD, and how she talked me out of the likelihood of their being a role blocker. But I guess those could be calked up to more gut influenced reads then provable intent. I feel very comfortable voting Hoopla.

VOTE: Hoopla

That line about Rob's flip was pretty much a throwaway comment, as all Rob did was pollute and annoy everyone in the game, town and scum alike -- it's hard to use his flip for anything meaningful. I don't really have any other defense for that, because it doesn't seem like something I should need to defend, but I find it genuinely baffling that this seems to be the backbone of your case against me.

[Hoopla]

So you're arguing that scum blocked the kill so they could get a mislynch today?

I find it much more likely that scum was worried they would die and blocked the kill rather than "hmm Grendel is probably gonna shoot town but we should block it anyway and try to use that to mislynch someone." A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

Scum need two mislynches to win. Realistically, we're probably only going to choose between 4-5 of those people. We get two chances to be right. With Grendel shooting, we have a third chance to be right. Even if scum knew Grendel was 100% killing a townie, this outcome

still

improves the lynching odds of our two chances during the day as it removes a wrong target for both of our lynch chances. No vig kill is by far scum's best night outcome regardless of who the scum is. Are you being deliberately obtuse here? Because I don't know any other way to explain this more simply...

[Hoopla]

MOD: Would a Weak Neighbourizers' action still succeed on a mafioso despite dying?

Yes, a Weak Neighborizer who successfully targets a Mafia player would both add that player to the Neighborhood PT (Neighborizer) and die (Weak).

^ This information doesn't clear molla, as he gets that neighbour topic regardless of his alignment.

~~

Elyse: so far your reason for voting for me is:

1) my wording on wanting to lynch THE scum power instead of A scum power. I think I've debunked this.
2) casting doubt on molla:

VOTE: Hoopla

Also for casting doubt on BB.

The above shows I was right to follow this line of inquiry, as we now know molla is not confirmed town. I haven't done a reread with these new flips integrated into my analysis yet -- I wanted to do it yesterday, but my time was consumed by figuring out what to do with our claimed power.

I'll try and get a good post outlining my take on the game tomorrow.

[Hoopla]

*this new flip

[Hoopla]

My bad. I did not think that they would be added even if scum.

So yes you were correct to do that. I still think you are scum, though I thought I had more of a slam dunk than I did. Your handling of the Masq lynch was very strange. It seemed as though you were trying to find a way to keep him alive and then decided there was no way and just bussed him.

Firstly, your accusation of my handling of Masquerade's lynch being strange is slanderous and ignores the reality that I was key component in his lynch being achieved. During the claim analysis, I was one of the first to declare him as scum instead of Grendel and steered the town away from potential night action plans to resolve the vig claims, and instead helped ensure town lynched a vig claim and the correct one at that. Earlier in the day, I was again influential in his wagon being promoted. Lets look at the vote count from early on D2:

VOTE COUNT 2.02

Masquerade (2): BBmolla, Egg
cmitc1 (2): Grendel, Killthestory
Hoopla (1): Elyse
Egg (1): Masquerade

No Vote (4): BlankFace, cmitc1, Wake88, Hoopla

In 902 and 903 I outline my thoughts on the D1 wagons, declare the game makes more sense with Masq as scum and put him on three votes, helping propel his wagon above cmitc and into dangerous territory. Elyse offers piecemeal observations like this about Masq:

Yeah that was pretty fake.

Masq is a good vote. I'll explain my Hoopla scumread later when I get on a computer.

This is Elyse giving lip service to the Masq wagon unfolding while she primarily spends the start of D1 dropping mega-posts like 885 about me. She eventually yields to the Masquerade wagon after I've pushed it to three votes:

VOTE: Masquerade

More comfortable with this. Still think Hoopla could be scum but she makes the most sense with Masquerade and brings up a good point about no one else including him in the wagons.

Suddenly she's more comfortable with this? What changed? The only thing that changed was the tide turning towards Masq, and I find it strange she is sheeping my opinions about Masq and buddying with me when I am her primary suspect. If my idea about Masq-scum is such a good point, that she is nodding along with her scum-read (me) and agreeing with it, how can she say my handling of the Masq lynch was strange when I was a key player in getting it achieved?

~~

I'm not as slam-dunk on Blankface/Elyse as Seraphim is, as I think Sera is occasionally scum instead of Blankface and is buddying my reads knowing I'll take the fall for a hypothetical Blank-town mislynch. This would actually be a good scum play on his part. I tend to think he is earnest though, and realistically, the best chance of town winning this game is through cooperation with him as it's definitely possible this is town-Sera here, and if he is, we'll be hard to stop.

I also think there are possibilities of molla, Egg or KTS scumteams, but their play just really makes more sense as town and picking any of them for the lynch seems like a left-field gamble steeped in conspiracy theories, and I'm certain there's never more than one scum here (but usually zero).

Playing the percentages, I'm inclined to believe Blank/Elyse is the most likely scumteam too. Blankface is the better lynch today as the scum not on Masq's wagon has fewer possible candidates, while there's a couple other players who could feasibly be bussing-scum, although I think Elyse's reluctant bussing (as depicted in this post) is the most likely scumbag on that wagon.

VOTE: Blankface

[Hoopla]

It was more your interaction with Mask yesterday then anything. I should have stressed that instead of saying "aside from Mask pushing town", but it is fine, if you want me to elaborate on why I think you D2 EoD is scummy I will.

I'd like that when you get the chance.

[Hoopla]

Despite molla not being cleared, I find it quite town he claimed to be neighbourised 10 minutes into the day, which is presumably when he'd have received his neighbourhood invitation. I think this play makes sense as town excited to be potentially be cleared, whereas he potentially thinks about it (and its consequences) for more than 10 minutes as scum. Not saying he can't as scum, just it's less likely. I have him behind Elyse and Blank quite significantly now.

[Hoopla]

Sera, don't forget that hoopla pushed for us to let masq live and confirm the claim before finally voting Masq (yes i'm aware i did the same thing lol). It's not like hoopla hardbussed if she's scum.

Why is this fiction about me pushing to let Masq live being circulated? I feel like I need to quote this for you and Elyse:

Analysing which vig claim is real:

For the most part it's unusual for scum to fakeclaim vig, as this really only buys you one more night before you get lynched -- that's all this claim does. So, who is more likely to want that extra phase of being alive? Masquerade was under pressure at L-1 and forced to claim -- this claim is great to allow you to survive one more day, as towns will naturally want to test the claim and will back down. If Grendel is scum, what motivation does he have to counterclaim vig after just two votes on him now? He had a chance of being lynched today, but it was nowhere near a certainty even without claiming.

Grendel is either a vig, or he's making a strange counterclaim, when something like Cop or any other investigation role will work just as well (if not better). Occam's razor: I think Grendel has to be truthful here, as he was under less immediate pressure on his claim, as such, he has less incentive as scum to paint himself into a corner with his claim. Masquerade was already in a corner, so a vig fakeclaim makes more sense from him.

Now that I reason this out, I'm actually pretty confident of Masq-scum/Grendel-town, and really don't think Grendel does this as scum in this situation very often at all. I'd even suggest both vigs being true is more likely than Grendel being scum here.

UNVOTE:

I think we have to lynch the best chance of scum today (even though it's tempting to let this all play out at night), and to me, the best chance of doing this is nailing the 50/50 between the vigs. If the scum has a RB, things won't get solved on its own at night. We'll probably still have to decide between Grendel/Masquerade and cmitc might be dead, so we have to take matters into our own hands today and lynch the scum.

I will be voting Masquerade today, but I don't want to put him at L-1 just yet in case of a hammer cutting off discussion. It goes without saying that Masq needs to fullclaim right now on the outside chance that something can point to him as town (I can't think of anything off the top of my head, but you never know).

^these posts were critical in determining that we lynched a vig-claim D2 (and the correct one at that). And this was before Seraphim, Elyse and anyone else was going in this direction regarding what to do. Your current idea at the time of these posts was still having Masq/Grendel shoot each other at night, by the way. I was moving towards lynching a vig-claim.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla you did want Masq alive early on in the day. Just because you switched at the end when it made you look bad doesn't mean your original stance wasn't there. I was on Masq the entire day because it was obvious he was lying.

When? Give me specific posts.

You weren't on Masq the entire day. You were FOURTH on his wagon and were pushing me hard instead of Masquerade before his wagon became a thing.

[Hoopla]

In the meantime I would like to know if your push on me yesterday prior to my claim was solely PoE, or if you had an actual case against me.

Mostly PoE based on my slew of town reads. My reasoning for Blank/Elyse today is similarly motivated.

[Hoopla]

When you pushed Grendel??? You are the only reason that the whole double vig claim happened. And before that you voted Egg.

Also lol I'm dumb. I meant the whole time after Masq claimed not the entire day. For some reason I feel like this game has gone on longer than it has.

If there was only one vig claim, lynching it that day makes no sense since we have a chance of confirming it at night. Grendel counterclaiming was the catalyst for the town truly catching Masquerade.

You were even happy to pursue other options despite being sold on Masq's claim:

I'd rather lynch cmit. I'm townreading Egg.

So, lets not get all high and mighty on ~knowing~ that Masq's claim was straight up scum. If anything, I find it more suspicious you weren't doing your due diligence to consider the possibility of him being town at all.

[Hoopla]

Nothing is a slam dunk in this game, so if we could make a play that gave him a chance to confirm himself as town at night, why would we not take it on the chance he was truthful?

The only person you haven't suspected of the living players is BB, who you buddied early on by giving him a townread that kept him from possibly being lynched.

That should be a point in my favour if BBmolla is town.

[Hoopla]

Sorry everyone, had an unexpectedly busy weekend.

Will be reading what's going on since I left.

[Hoopla]

As far as I see it, I have been set up to be the lynch regardless of what Blank flips as most people are seeing a Hoopla/Blankface team. It seems pretty unlikely I won't be one of todays/tomorrows two lynches, so that means the town can't make another mistake for the rest of the game.

If I am lynched, I think the only possible play is to lynch Blank/Elyse, although I fully haven't checked enough how viable this is as a partnership compared to every other combo. killthestory/Egg/Sera/Molla are all on the unlikely end of the spectrum as possible scum -- there's a convincing reason or reasons for why they all could be town, and I don't expect the town to land a miracle and pick the scum correctly out of that lot. It seems like a lottery for town to guess correctly out of those four, if one is indeed scum.

We only get one chance to pick one possible scumteam, so it seems wisest to go for Blank/Elyse if I die.

[Hoopla]

Still here, still waiting for people to choose between me and Blank.

[Hoopla]

I am VT since it appears to be that time.

[Hoopla]

Well, I thought this game was pretty much a write-off when Sera replaced out, but I'm glad Wingback has my back and I feel pretty good about his slot still, despite some lingering paranoia. He didn't really need to defend me at all, especially to the extent that he has, and I hope if/when I am lynched you let him and (I guess) Molla lead the town.

As far as I'm concerned, nothing has really changed and Blank should be lynched today/tomorrow. Picking the third scum will be tricky, as I think scum will have a lot of control over whose opinions are allowed to be present in a hypothetical mylo/lylo, but Wingback has given this game a glimmer of hope again.

[Hoopla]

@Hoopla; I'm still interested in your thoughts about Egg's catchup even if only to see a different perspective. I'd also like to know your thoughts on what I said about Masq's vote on BlankFace D1. It's possible you are right on Blankface and Molla is right that it is indeed Blankface/Elyse especially since their interactions with each other do look like partners. But I also suspect Egg and have reason to second-guess my Blankface read.

Egg could be scum, but if I am lynched we have to nail the scumteam with our other two picks, so you kinda have to gamble the town on a few players being town. Factoring into this is also how difficult it would be to get the stars to align and getting all/most of the townies to agree on who the final scum is. I don't know how realistic an Egg lynch is based on this, as it doesn't seem like the sort of game where people's reads are changing that dramatically -- everyone looks pretty locked into their interpretation of the game. So, from my perspective, focusing on the most easy to achieve win possibility for town is key here.

Mmm, as for your point on Masq's vote on Blank D1. I think I kinda agree that actually makes it likelier that Blank is town. Right now, I think you're pretty much town captain and I'm happy to defer to what you think and help you achieve what you think is most likely, because it looks like you are reading the well (better than me) and are more invested than me at the moment.

If you see Elyse working in more potential scumteams than Blank, I'm happy to support a push on her instead. I am definitely warming to the idea of Elyse/Egg actually.

[Hoopla]

The one thing that's bothering me about Hoopla though is that since I've replaced in and started defending her, she barely made any posts at all or tried to work with me to refine her reads beyond just Blankface. Her posting has been very minimal lately, just one post every one or two days. So, I'd prefer she defend herself and post more reads at this point. It doesn't take away from her town posting throughout the game but I at least want an explanation for it.

Sorry. My time for this game has recently been limited to quick check-ins instead of solid blocks of time where I can analyse the game indepth, which is my usual MO in late game, and not being able to do that/maybe being mislynched has made this game feel a bit blah.

Hence why I'm pretty much happy to defer to you right now.

[Hoopla]

A couple of things that would help are: 1) If you could go over your townread on House for me. I haven't seen any reason to townread him and his posts look a lot like scum fueling Robb to help him self-destruct. While I do think KTS's posts are somewhat town, it would help solidify that read if there was some strong reason you had for townreading House that I'm missing entirely. 2) It seems that you've played with BBMolla before so I could use a meta-explanation on why you seem decently confident this is his townplay. I'm not a fan of his coasting by occasionally and not staying on to engage me on my read (his earlier potshot at me and disappearance after I answered his question is just the latest example).

I think he just seemed genuinely annoyed and wanted Rob to stop, which pretty much characterised my feelings about the situation. I guess he could be faking it as scum to help fuel that mess, but I never really looked back and challenged/reevaluated that read based on KTS's play.

I've played very little mafia in the last few years, so my feelings about Molla being town is based on general tendencies -- I just don't see scum get desperate to defend themself in an emotional way with self-meta under little pressure. I think this sort of thing occurs more from townies that are frustrated that the others can't see the truth that they are town.

[Hoopla]

On the other hand, Egg has self-voted as scum before and called for his lynch.

I think he threw out that little suggestion because he thought it would get him towncred. The fact that Egg is not above using fake towntells as scum is another reason I don't weigh his thinking you had a cop guilty on cmitc1 very strongly. He would know that cmitc1 is town and that if he believes there was a guilty, that would a "towntell" on his part because it would supposedly show that he was uninformed about cmitc1's alignment.

Well, this was probably the main reason I was thinking Egg was town in spite of his under the radar nothing posting. This is pretty jarring.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Egg

Wingback is obliterating this game.

[Hoopla]

@Hoopla; re: Post 1326,
1) Not a fan of the overt buddying of me. I hardly think I have a solid grasp on the game and this post sends all kinds of alarms especially since the entirety of your interaction with me has been cheerleading from the sidelines as opposed to offer any sort of opinions or content. Is this normal play for you as town? Can you link me to games where you were mislynched or were on the brink of being mislynched? I'd also like to see a game where you took the backseat and just went with the reads of another player who you thought had a better handle on the game.

Why is buddying explicitly bad/scummy? Recognising when someone else is dominating the game with reads and effort that I'm not able/willing to make seems perfectly okay to me, when for the most part, I haven't played that well or had the energy to give the game my everything. As for whether this is normal for me or not, it's hard to say. I think it's slowly starting to become a pattern for me and a part of why I don't play mafia anymore -- I just cannot generate same amount of zeal and fire to crush games with brute force analysis like I once could, and it ends up with me being apathetic, because I know it takes a lot of energy to change people's minds and put the dots together in late game, and I just cannot do it and fall into an existential tailspin. Perhaps this is a sign I shouldn't be playing mafia any more, because it isn't fair to the other players, and I legitimately don't know how to adapt to a simpler, more fluid gamestyle.

Looking at my wiki for you, literally the last town game I was in (Mini 1456), a similar thing happened at the endgame.

Why isn't hoopla dead

the fact you're so convinced it is me is going to lose us the game if you're town, because whoever the scum is will keep us alive together tomorrow.

i don't really know any more. i've mentally checked out a while ago, so i don't think i can rely on being accurate, but it's obvious to me that if we don't lynch scum today we will be in autoloss situation tomorrow if you're town. so... i don't know where i'm going with this. but it's what i see unfolding.

Funny enough it was Elyse again tunneling in on me. She must be allergic to me or something. She was actually town that game though!

~~

In Mafia With The Quickness (post 1163 onwards) you will also witness some of my shameless sheeping qualities as I try to handle being in a game with too many players and too many posts.

As I write all this out, this is becoming a bleak realisation about the nature of my limits and expectations as town, and I feel embarrassed that this has become a part of my town meta. I don't know if I should thank you or bury my head in the sand for making me do that for you.

[Hoopla]

After reading that last game I was in with Elyse where she towntunneled in on me hard in a way that mirrors this game, I am starting to believe she might actually be town.

I now think Egg is the best lynch, and his partner is probably Blank/Math or KTS.

[Hoopla]

Anyone know if Elyse tunnels as scum?

Elyse: I'd be happy for some self-meta from you if you're down.

[Hoopla]

I'm sheeping Wingback for the most part.

[Hoopla]

@Hoopla;

re: Post 1349, You didn't answer my question about your BBMolla read - that was the most important part.

I glanced through the games you linked. I didn't find anything compelling in the first one yet so I'll look at it more in-depth tonight. As for the second one, I found a wall where you justified sheeping but it was a large game with no flips at that time and you complained about the game length, size, and speed. Here, we only have eight players remaining, with only a page or so a day so it should be a great ground for you to bust out the analytical chops you talked about but I don't see anything.

The concern I had wasn't entirely just about sheeping and more about "Wingback is obliterating this game" which I didn't like. If you really thought collaborating with me was beneficial, I thought you would have expanded on that BBMolla read that I asked about to help me figure the game out.

I didn't elaborate on my read of BBmolla because everything I believe about him is already out in the open. For you, I am sure determining someone's alignment based on one small passage of play is insane, and I can respect that attitude when you're putting in effort to analyse the game from 50 different angles. I simply do not have the time/energy to do so at the moment, so I have been tending to gravitate towards those rare glimpses behind the curtain amid the wash of noise and aimless bickering. I originally townread cmitc based on a similarly specific moment in the game.

@Hoopla;

re: Post 1326
2) I have a hard time buying that your townread on BBMolla at the end of D3 in fifty page long game with over five weeks of playtime amounts to "he had an emotional meltdown" on page seven a couple of days after the game started. You have stated paranoia of him for just coasting on the townread you gave him but it's concerning that you never followed up on that line of thought. On your Post 1188, there isn't much thought required to claim that he was neighborized and to summarize cmitc's posts in the neighborhood PT. That's a pretty weak reason for it to have assuaged your concerns about BBMolla's lack of scumhunting. Mind going over it in more detail so I can see if there's more depth to it?

3) If you are town here, I'd like to avoid mislynching but as it turns out, you are the concensus scumread and you not nothing has made me second-guess my townread on you considerably. Especially given you seem happy to post in the Open Setup Review thread which shows you have enough time to spare for mafia-related activities. This is also at odds with typical town behavior where players about to be lynched want to get as much information and reads out there as possible. In fact, it fits with the scum motivation of trying to minimize interactive tells and going down quietly once they see the writing on the wall. Assuming you are town, I really need something from you, hopefully a massive wall of content with in-depth and updated reads.

You're welcome to use the template of "typical town behaviour" to determine my play here, and for the most part I'm not proud of it, and genuinely don't know how to identify and overcome the source of my malaise. But it really only hits me town. I showed you different flavours of apathy/sheeping that has arisen in a couple of my town games, and could probably find more if I dug, but you won't find that from me as scum, and I typically do all good townie things that make you look townie like posting massive walls of content and being the most active player in the game.

Perhaps this is why I am sympathetic to molla's body of work in this game, because I don't find general activity and 'scumhunting' to be meaningful towntells -- it is with certain players, but I think a more accurate snapshot of his motivations came out early in the game when he was being wagoned, as opposed to 50 pages of nothing that he could do as either alignment.

I don't know. I feel like the type of content and effort required to escape the noose either today or tomorrow is too far beyond my scope, and that doing the little that I can afford to won't change anything. It's pretty obvious to me that the writing is on the wall for me with how locked in Grendel and Elyse are on me, as well as Mathblade now and whoever else is scum. I feel like the best defense I can possibly offer is just being honest and showing you my garbage apathy as town that you won't get from me as scum.

[Hoopla]

I've already claimed, friend.

[Hoopla]

I'm town and I support this combo:

If Hoopla flips town, pretty sure it's Mathblade/Egg. The all the people tunneled in on her better sit and read the whole game and think about considering all options.

Elyse, pull your head in and help out Wingback tomorrow.

[Hoopla]

Nice game scumbags!

Thanks for modding Dierfire - you handled the replacements and the whole D1 drama well. I think a force-replace might have been better than a modkill, but the town recovered from that anyhow, so no matter.

The seraphim/Wingback slot played well, and was probably the difference in the end. Also, a little comment to Rob incase he is still following the game: all the players you were so adamant were scum on D1 were town, and you almost ruined the game over it. Learn to understand and accept your limitations.