Newbie 1768: Party Mafia - Game over!

[bowdown]

Good morning everyone! First game of mafia ever, though I used to play werewolf on a different forum like 5 years ago. Getting caught up now but let's start with a

vote toejam

because gross.

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Jae, I honestly can't work that out myself. Unless that's your way of stirring up conversation and starting the hunt, which I'm going to read you as Towny for.

This doesn't really resonate with me. Stirring up discussion alone is something that anyone can easily do, and in my opinion, not a very good basis for reads. JaeReed also earned some townie points with me for that post, but it's because of the way he purposely didn't explain himself and left it up to everyone else to think about, which seems like a genuine town strategy. I do think it's possible that you were thinking along these lines and just weren't as specific about it.

Sure, when we get to day 3 and page 60, the fact that someone "stirred up discussion" on the second page shouldn't impact your read in a player. Page 2 though, absolutely it can, especially when all the reads are going to be so nebulous.

I'm curious why you decided to give tojam an out on his thinking. Why not instead simply ask "what were you thinking?" and evaluate the response?

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I want to talk about this. What do you mean by "good" read - a read that is accurate or a read that is justified? In my experience, scum like to make everyone's reads about logic and evidence, because those things are easier to twist or poke holes at. If a player happens to accurately (but perhaps illogically) townread a townie, there isn't a pro-town benefit to breaking down that read unless it is actively helping sort the player who gave the townread. Whereas it helps scum to jump in and weaken townreads, as it keeps the lynchpool wider.

Also, because scum already know who is town, when asked about their fake townreads they can usually explain them convincingly. Scumreads are harder to fake.

IMO the most effective townplay is scrutinizing and justifying scumreads, not townreads

I gotta disagree with this too. Both reads are valuable justifying and scrutinizing. Your entire post assumes that a town is illogically, accurately reading a town as town. The problem comes when a town inaccurately, illogically reads a mafia as town - those reads have to be looked at as well otherwise the mafia can just skate by, not killing the townies that read them well.

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Jae, I honestly can't work that out myself. Unless that's your way of stirring up conversation and starting the hunt, which I'm going to read you as Towny for.

Not a particularly large fan of this.

Not following someone's reads and proceeding to ascribe town motivation is a little sketchy.

In general, I don't like unexplained TRs Sparkles. Yet, there are players who do that. Naked reads can be playstyle, crumbs, confidence or any number of things. Pressing to understand is ok, but don't press to demolish.

I agree with Titus on both of these, don't think it's alignment indicative though

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A few more random thoughts that don't deserve their own post:

- Nancy, I too want an answer to Jae's question "what pinged you about tojam's initial posts"

- Jae, how concerned are you with Nancy's vote parked on you?

- GuiltyLion, I'd love to hear more thoughts about this game specifically other than "sparkles why are you acting like a mod?"

- Finally, I'm pinged by TriangleShark's entrance - the add on "Because everyone deserves some love" feels forced.

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VOTE: EccentricLemon

I voted for GuiltyLion hoping to receive some information from him or other players discussing him but I'm a little disappointed that there isn't a lot of debate going on about him. Also as soon as people started voting for him, he hasn't posted much.

In what world did you vote for him to receive some information from him/others discussing him? It was halfway through the first page and the other two votes on him were random. There wasn't any serious discussion of anyone at that point.

He also has had a couple of posts (in fact his only posts) are after he got his three votes. I'd like some more posts out of him too but I'm not that concerned that barely into D1 he hasn't posted much.

This is both really lazy "hunting" and not at all what actually happened.

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Lemon, I guess I am kind of dissatisfied with your response of "of course that vote was just to generate discussion". Did you learn anything from the lack of discussion?

I also am bothered by the same two quotes of yours in 74 that Lion posted in 76 and want an explanation for those.

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I don't want to be accusatory because a mistake will likely make me seem scummier. If my aggressive actions get him hanged and he turns out to be town, people are going to come after me because I'm already suspicious. I mean, it seems like everything I say is making me more and more suspicious anyway.

Worrying about how evil you sound instead of worrying about finding the evils is scummy. But this also feels like a natural reaction for someone new who's being run up early on D1.

So I'm going to UNVOTE: you for now because I want to see you hunting and not on the defensive - if your hunting sucks this vote is coming right back though.

VOTE: TriangleShark because two pages went by between your posts and all you could post was "someone else already said what I wanted to say"? Not only that but the post of GuiltyLion's that you cited was simply two quotes and three questions.

Also it feels super quiet. I know there's two weeks for each day but I wasn't expecting it to be this slow-paced.

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- Jae, how concerned are you with Nancy's vote parked on you?

Somewhat. The issue is when someone gets a scumread they should be voting for said scumread, not parked on a null.

She did justify it by saying "votes are meaningless at this stage" - which I disagree with. I find it curious that she is now pressing Titus for vote rationale beyond gut - Nancy why is it okay for you to have had a scumread on tojam due to gut but Titus can't?

Also have to disagree that your vote has to be parked on a scumread. Your vote should be placed where you think it will do the most good for the entire town, which might not be on your worst read.

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Also it feels super quiet. I know there's two weeks for each day but I wasn't expecting it to be this slow-paced.

Maybe you should try and instigate something then? There's plenty of material to go on. 9 for instance, where toejam seems to me to insinuate that town should be more inclined to out their roles than scum would - isn't it actually the opposite? Or the fact that Titus and Jae are apparently no voting. Or that AgentSparkles and EccentricLemon still have no avatars. Is that a blending tactic or are they just unable to find a satisfactory image for themselves? Or did they not see 19, and does that mean that they have been skimming - not a particularly townie thing to do? Does AgentSparkle's humorless response to my jokes mean that he didn't read it carefully? He displays a sense of humor in 10 and yet failed to detect it in my 21 and 22, does that further suggest that he skimmed? Maybe others can comment on whether or not the joke is obvious enough.

Off I go to read some theory about D1 RL.

First of all I disagree that I haven't been instigating things. I'm curious as to how you came to that characterization. Haven't done more because I was waiting for responses to some of my questions, and seeing how others interacted with the game without prodding. You can learn a lot by not saying things. For example, I'm pinged by Titus for the second time entering the thread and not posting anything of much worth.

Quite frankly, most of the stuff you quoted I couldnt care less about. I read #9 as "hey noobs, don't post right away that you are excited you got an awesome role" from a more experienced player. I don't really care that Titus and Jar aren't voting yet - I care that Titus's posts have been crappier than Jae's, while Jae has a strangely knowledgeable tone (scummy) but is also the IC and is supposed to play the knowledgeable role. So I'm struggling to balance the IC aspect of Jae with my read on him.

Don't really care about the lack of avatars, and Sparkles not picking up on your humor doesn't concern me either - it's easy to read you posting "switching votes for dubious reasons" as an actual scumtell.

I feel (and maybe it's because I wasn't active in the thread until yesterday) that there is more meat to be dug into starting around page 3 - why are you only bringing up topics from the first couple of pages?

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VOTE: EccentricLemon

My bad. I am showing off the naked voting strategy, so not yet.

Would love an explanation of the naked voting strategy.

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bowdown, that defeats the purpose of a naked vote.

When the time comes, then I would love an explanation of it.

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@bowdown RE: Titus naked voting. Why do you believe Titus voted EccentricLemon at this stage in the game? What do you think Titus may have seen that would prompt a vote?

Seeing who jumps and doesn't jump on the lemon wagon and their reasons for doing so could be illuminating. Extreme case is that two others quickly jump on Lemon with poor reasons - d2 we look strongly at them.

I'm not impressed with Titus so far and I want to hear more from him and what he eventually learns from this. So far all I see from him is generic ideas/strategy and nothing specific to this game.

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Nancy, I'm on my phone and will fail at breaking your post up into a bunch of mini quotes.

Gut scumread: You posted to the thread you had a gut scumread on tojam without being able to explain why. I don't understand how if you are town, that isn't implicitly saying that it's okay for someone to have a gut scumread with no explanation - after all town-nancy had the same kind of reaction. I would have been totally satisfied with a response from you of "i see that Titus is doing some kind of play so it's okay that he cites gut as his reason."

Titus's posts: Helpful and interesting, sure. Actually attempting to solve this specific game? No way. Could change depending on what happens with this baked vote but right now no.

#9: Not disregarding the opportunity to learn - I read "regardless of its towniness" as "don't post your role, whether cop/other good special or mafia". I'd be disappointed if the first post on page 1 was a serious "cool I got mafia" from someone - that's not a fun or rewarding game to play in.

Titus/Use not voting: This early on D1 I care way more about who is saying what, who is questioning who, how are people responding etc. than I do about a lack of votes from two players. Thats how I like to hunt and from reads - by talking with people.

Jae: Look at 26 and 41. Jae is both hunting/making reads, but also usng it as a teaching moment as the IC. They know more about the game than we noobs, which comes across in their post. But the Mafia also know more about the game than the village because they know who is good and who isn't while we don't. That knowledgeness (is that a word?) can shine through their post sometimes. Some of Jae's posts also feel like that - the last paragraph of 88 is another example of combibing IC-ing and playing.

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Nancy, I'll get back to you later after thinking further through your response in 107.

Jae, I want to separate IC-Jae from player-Jae. Are the questions at the bottom of 87, 88, and 108 questions you'd typically ask if you weren't the IC?

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- Jae, how concerned are you with Nancy's vote parked on you?

Somewhat. The issue is when someone gets a scumread they should be voting for said scumread, not parked on a null.

I'm not going to make that mistake either:
VOTE: nancy

Why are you just now making this vote after Jae expresses their concern? Most of your posts throughout the game have to do with nancy's lack of a vote on you, yet you don't vote on it until now. Feels like you're skimming along and piggybacking off of Jae, especially when Jae expressed their concern about Nancy's vote before you did.

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Tojam, it's also very hypocritical of you to have a scumread on someone for leaving their vote on their first random vote, and then do the exact same thing.

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First of all, tojam, I'm not buying you not changing your vote because you're on your phone. Most of my posts have been from my phone too, it's not very hard to put [s in or just click the vote button on top of the reply box.

Now, you tell me where I'm drawing the wrong conclusion in this.

19: Nancy votes Jae for telling her how to vote, while getting a gut scumread from you.

27: Jae asks her why she voted for them and not you for the same thing.

39: You post that you agree with Jae and read them towny for it.

47: Nancy reveals she has a gut-scum read on you for 7 and 9 that she can't explain.

81: You say that having opinions prior to the game (7 and 9) is noobscummy of nancy

85: Jae says they are somewhat concerned with Nancy not voting her biggest scumread (you)

111: You quote Jae expressing concern over Nancy not voting a scumread and vote her.

I have two primary issues with what went down.

First, yes I am accusing you of buddying/sheeping the IC. Almost all of your content that is specific to this game is repeating stuff that Jae already has expressed.

My bigger concern is that your post where you vote Nancy quotes Jae expressing concern that Nancy left her vote parked in a null and didn't move it to a scumread. I'm assuming that is the actual reason you are voting Nancy because you quoted that in your post. The problem is that you did the exact same thing - 39 and 81 both are displaying a scumread of Nancy and yet your vote was left on Lemon, who you voted in your very first post.

If 81 is your actual reason for voting Nancy (noobscummy to have opinions prior to the game): the game had certainly already started, Jae had pointed out that it's common for people to start hunting from the getgo (in 41), and you still never moved your vote to Nancy!

So yeah, I feel pretty good with a VOTE: tojam.

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39 - was reading Jae towny for drumming up conversation, which scum may not want to do because it produces readable content with more time in the day, I did not agree with jae's statement about what you said

So just Jae gets a towny read for drumming up conversation? What about the last five pages of conversation that have been drummed up (by lots of people)? Also, Jae's statement in 39 had nothing to do with me - I hadn't even joined the game at that point.

81 - noobscum would pick someone to apply pressure to before the game, like a plan of action as if mafia has a strict order.

And that read on nancy hasn't changed at all from her other posts? I'm assuming it hasn't, otherwise you wouldn't vote for her, but her posts have been anything but "picking someone to apply pressure before the game".

[bowdown]

The Triangle vote reads to me like it was for show, given that:
a) bowdown gave himself a reason to go back to Lemons ("if your hunting sucks this vote is coming back")
b) Triangle hasn't posted since his vote, but bowdown already moved to tojam.

What do you mean by "for show"? I was on Lemon because that was my first decent-sized ping. I moved off Lemon to see what she was like without feeling like she has to be on the defensive. I'm unsure how I feel about lemon right now - I want to do some more in-depth reading of her latest post and I think there's some credence to nancy's idea that Lemon's just not putting out goodtown tells.

Triangle vote was absolutely legit, but I moved off it for three reasons:

1. Two days have gone since Triangle even posted, so the pressure there is wasted
2. It didn't generate much discussion or content, which IMO is the most important thing we can get out of D1
3. Most importantly, tojam put out some seriously scummy posts and I have a decently strong scumread there - much stronger than either of the initial Lemon/Triangle reads.

Further, I think he may have slipped knowledge of town!Lemons here:

Seeing who jumps and doesn't jump on the lemon wagon and their reasons for doing so could be illuminating. Extreme case is that two others quickly jump on Lemon with poor reasons - d2 we look strongly at them.

You're right, it's awkwardly worded because I'm concerned about which questions Jae is asking and which questions they are not asking - which really arose from thinking about Jae's question "why is Titus naked voting" - asking that question to get responses could easily blunt whatever Titus is trying to do. I wanted to answer his question but not lead into a big discussion about naked voting and futzed around with how to respond.

What do you think of the questions Jae has asked so far (e.g. 88, 102)? Do you feel like they're from a protown perspective?

and I have some thoughts on his tojam case but I would like to let tojam respond to it first before jumping in

Would love to hear them now that tojam has responded.

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I don't really care that Titus and Jar aren't voting yet - I care that Titus's posts have been crappier than Jae's, while Jae has a strangely knowledgeable tone (scummy) but is also the IC and is supposed to play the knowledgeable role. So I'm struggling to balance the IC aspect of Jae with my read on him.

I'd like to know why anyone having a "knowledgeable tone" is a problem in the first place. Does looking ignorant make people towny?

Knowledgeable in the sense of knowing who is town and who is scum - of course the mafia knows who is who and the town doesn't. There's a little more detail on my concerns there in my response to Lion, but I'd like to wait until Jae responds before going more in-depth into it.

I'm thinking through the meat of Lemon's and your posts - what is your read on tojam?

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Jae - so those questions are completely not-IC Jae, they're Jae playing the game. Got it. A couple of yours haven't seemed very pro-town motivated (102 in particular, there was another one but I can't remember or find it).

@bowdown RE: Titus naked voting. Why do you believe Titus voted EccentricLemon at this stage in the game? What do you think Titus may have seen that would prompt a vote?

Those questions extend to others as well, btw, if you want to take a stab.

How does asking this question help the town?

Also, on you/nancy/tojam:

1 - If we lynch tojam and he flips scum, you have spent a lot of this game attacking nancy for gut-scumreading tojam but not voting there.

2 - What is your read on nancy? She is probably my best town read at this point in the game. If you've got a scumread on her, are there any reasons besides those in 109? If you're scumreading her, why are you not voting her?

3 - How are you reading tojam? What do you think of 131?

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@Titus - Did you learn anything from the naked vote?

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Sparkles, what is your read on tojam?

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Done with page 3.

@bowdown

you read TriangleShark's vote reason as forced, it must be fake also. Aren't all RVS votes backed with silly, fake reasons? How is TriangleShark's entrance different then the others?

It just does. The emoticon + the text heart feel like trying too hard to be light-hearted.

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You think that is alignment indicative? From my point of view, both town and scum want to be liked, and can use emoticons to achieve this.

I don't think that using emoticons is alignment indicative. I'm saying that the post had the tone of an evil trying to fit in. It's not a big thing because it's trying to toneread a random vote post, but it was enough of a thing that I wanted to call it out.

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Hey tojam - any thoughts on what I said in 134?

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I'll be off and on for a bit. What do you (or anyone else) think about this?

I learn a lot more without people sheeping me.

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I have some thoughts on it but I'll wait until Jae responds to 151.

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Lemon - I can see where you're coming from with Titus going through the motions (and sort of agree, but also think that Titus is actually trying to move the village forward with some of her posts). I don't think that Titus is sheeping Jae though.

You have scumreads on both Titus and tojam - what are your thoughts on this interaction between them? Mafia-mafia?

Jae, I honestly can't work that out myself. Unless that's your way of stirring up conversation and starting the hunt, which I'm going to read you as Towny for.

Not a particularly large fan of this.

Not following someone's reads and proceeding to ascribe town motivation is a little sketchy.

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so the thing is your entire case is built off of tojam being hypocritical in scumreading nancy for vote parking on a null, while doing the same thing himself.
Why do you think hypocrisy is indicative of scum alignment, especially in this particular case? Your 124 reads to me like "here are facts about things that happened, so tojam is a good vote", but I feel I'm missing the causality reasoning as to why voting nancy for doing something that he is guilty of himself makes tojam scum.

The case in 124 certainly is mostly a "hey tojam is being hypocritical + looks like he is sheeping Jae" - those both could be scumtells but aren't necessarily so - so I pressured there to find more. But then tojam gives a really weak answer in 131 and doesn't even respond to 134. Those are what solidified the scumread for me. I see his claim, I still think he has been super scummy but lynching there doesn't make sense.

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Have you done the in-depth reading? What do you currently think of Lemon?

133 was decent surface level hunting - didn't really have anything to add to it. I had convinced myself pretty well that tojam was scum and was looking for his partner (which I still think if there's a counter and tojam flips scum, there's a decent chance it's Jae).

I guess my problem with 1 is why was pressure on Triangle better than pressure on Lemon at the point in the game at which you unvoted?

Felt the pressure on Lemon was impeding her ability to hunt and for me to assess that.

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Bowdown, join me?

join you where?

[bowdown]

Sure, Titus.

VOTE: EccentricLemon

I get the feeling that Titus is hiding behind Jae. I need to go look through posts for some more solid evidence. I'll get back to you on that.

I still don't see any evidence of this.

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My reads, roughly. Each group is relatively close.

Town

*tojam - only b/c of claim
nancy
GuiltyLion
AgentSparkles

Titus

JaeReed
Revan
EccentricLemon

Scum

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@Jae - why is GL a scumread?

lol at the alert popping up with Titus questioning my townread on GL. Next post.

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Titus, you're neutral, not null (null would be not having any read, neutral is not really sure). Plus for trying to move the village along with the nullvote. 56 and 57 together feel very off the cuff and natural. Minuses for ignoring my question about what you learned from nullvote and for what Lemon pointed out in 133 about your 127 - GL had just said they thought Lemon was a townread

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GL is town because most of GL's posts have that underlying urge and pressure to solve the game. He actually analyzed my argument on tojam unlike everyone else and is reading closely looking for potential scumslips (125). Lost of little comments showing that he is constantly evaluating and reading the game:

- "I could see it coming from either alignment. All it shows is you didn't proofread your post" in 128

- "I don't think this mistake is fake, so given that EL misread a tojam post, it is more likely that she also missed the Agent Sparkles question I pointed out, rather than strategically ignoring it. Combined with her other posting, I feel she is genuine. I agree with nancy's description of her as "town unable to give off towntells"." in 125

- Like all of his comments in 73.

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To see what happens and try to sort out my scumreads.

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No, now that I did it after Titus, more interesting things can happen.

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In their 143, they claim that they asked their questions in 87 and 88 to scumhunt. However, they don't follow up. I feel as though if they were trying to scumhunt, they would share with the town what they garnered from those responses. This leads me to believe that they're scum just going through the motions, and not genuinely trying to solve the game.

I don't see Lion or Lemon even responding to Jae's 87 or 88, so how was Jae supposed to have any serious followup on those questions or share with the town?

[bowdown]

@bowdown GL's 76 could easily be partner communication. 125 could be a case of him being overly sensitive to alignment knowledge. He hasn't done any real scumhunting beyond keeping up appearances. The stuff is there for a scumread if you want to make it, along with a few inductive leaps.

76 - I don't think so, I had the exact same reaction that Lion did to those posts.

I think his scumhunting toward me has been sincere. I'd like to see that directed more proactively (and hear some thoughts on the rest of the town) but it doesn't feel like he is just keeping up appearances.

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Eh, pretty sure there are questions that I've asked and have forgotten about too. It might be a thing, I just don't think so.

What does bug me about Jae is actually his tojam vote that came out of the blue - in a scum-Jae/town-tojam world it's an opportunistic, PR-hunting vote.

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Do you think they slipped?

Nope, I read it as an honest self-assessment of their scum game.

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What does bug me about Jae is actually his tojam vote that came out of the blue - in a scum-Jae/town-tojam world it's an opportunistic, PR-hunting vote.

Except there was still a week left and I only took him to L-2. Claims come at L-1 with intent to hammer, so this reasoning doesn't really hold up.

Hmmmmm. Is that always/almost always true? Where I used to play, claims would come sometime when a person felt like they were close to being lynched, which varied a lot. Then again the voting was different - all that mattered was where your vote was at deadline, you didn't get lynched with a majority halfway through the day.

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Revan, I am not seeing what you outlined in 210 as a scumtell for Jae. I really don't like that you didn't even notice that neither GL or EL responded to Jae's questions.

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Revan, I am not seeing what you outlined in 210 as a scumtell for Jae. I really don't like that you didn't even notice that neither GL or EL responded to Jae's questions.

I thought they did, but that must've been a gap in my thinking.

What thinking is there to have a gap in? You scumread Jae for not following up on questions, and while you're looking for follow-ups you just don't notice that nobody actually responded to the questions?

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A lot of what JaeReed is posting seems very simple and easily producible, sub-par with what I would expect out of an IC.

One more for you Revan, would you describe your own posts as simple and easily producible?

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I would say that they are short, but sweet and concise. They are

physically

easily producible, but Jae's are different.

A lot of their thinking is pretty simple, a lot of "Why do you scumread/townread x?" If you're scum, you can say this and get town points just for someone else's laziness.

I think some of Jae's stuff is simole thinking. I think that some of them demonstrate deeper thinking. I don't think that necessarily indicates towniness but I do think it's more likely to be coming from town.

However, I don't think that there's one post of yours that has depth to its reasoning - you have a bunch of surface level analyses. There's no oomph there.

VOTE: Revan. I like this better than Lemon.

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Titus, any particular reason you wanted me to join you on Lemon?

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To bowdown: Explain why you followed Titus. (implies you think he could be partnered with Titus or scum sheeping Titus since she told him to do it)

Think I said this before, but to see what happened. I wanted to try najed voting (kind of) - learned a little but honestly not a big fan of the strategy. I do want to point out Revans soft defense of Lemon in case either flips scum (202, 204).

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@Jae 247

On you and tojam being scum together: there is you immediately calling tojam a town read along with sparkles, tojam sheeping you, tojam's awkward 39 tiwnread of you for stirring up conversation. Plus the post that really put the idea in my mind:

I learn a lot more without people sheeping me.

This reads a lot like "hey scumbuddy, knock it off"

Now this is all a moot point with town-tojam, but I definitely thought Jae-tojam scumteam was decently likely.

Breaking up my response to you into a couple posts since I'm on my phone.

[bowdown]

^ You skimmed that post for your name, didn't you broski? Read it in context.

I absolutely did - there's too many posts for me to really read in depth right before bedtime.

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Why are you defending me given that I'm a scumread of yours? Wouldn't it have been better for you to sort me through watching two of your scumreads duke it out? If you think my posting demonstrates deeper thinking more likely to come from town, then why am I scumread?

I don't think I was defending you, I was pointing out that Revan's thought process on scumreading you didn't make sense, especially in some posts you didn't quote.

I'd rather engage in conversations to develop my reads rather than be a third party to an argument. I feel scummier on Revan than I did before having that conversation - maybe I would have learned more from you two arguing, maybe less.

My read on you has actually improved a touch after 217/221 and your Revan-pressure. Why you were scumread earlier: asking lots of questions to get the town thinking but without offering your opinion - felt like scum trying to look like productive townies. Unexplained tojam vote. Little bit of residual effect of tojam-Jae hypothesis.

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Jae, why is looking for scumslips a scumtell? 250 and GL

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Titus:

Did you learn anything either from your initial naked vote, or from me joining you on Lemon a couple pages ago?

Has your read if GL changed? I'm still townreading him.

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Hey Revan, can you go more in depth into Jae's 143 and why you're reading Jae as scum for it?

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I guess Titus's no response is a bit of a towntell, then? I would think scum are more focused on self-preservation and would defend themselves.

Exhibit B of you just going through the motions of scumhunting. Titus has been completely ignoring your pressure for pages and just now you decide that might be a towntell? You called him out as obvscum like 5 pages ago - I feel like if you were actually hunting you'd try to assess the reaction before GL called you out on it.

Exhibit A is you totally missing that Jae didn't even have responses to respond to earlier.

[bowdown]

Nancy - I could see Jae-Lemon. I also could see Jae-Titus, and would rather go Jae than Lemon. But IMO Revan is scummier.

[bowdown]

Hey GL, question for you that's bugging me: You voted and made a case on me, and then now follow me onto Regan. It feels weird, especially given that:

- You already followed me once onto Lemon

- Of the three people who have been posting the most (Jae, Nancy, and myself) I am the only one with a townread on you.

I don't know if it's a thing or not, but it's really bugging me.

[bowdown]

I guess I'm content with your answers Revan. Was seeing if you'd respond differently to the "I don't like being sheeoed" part of 143 in Jae. Still bugged that you didn't notice nobody responded to Jae's questions when you said they didn't follow up.

[bowdown]

tojam, what are your reads/thoughts on where we lunch?

[bowdown]

@Jae According to what I understand about this game, I find your comments re Lemon wagon to be scummy. You don't seem very confident in your TR on her, I'm certainly not, and you've previously stated that L-2/1 is a great way to force people to prove themselves. Please explain to me why I'm wrong.

I somehow find myself agreeing with bowdown's earlier assessment that pressure on Lemon won't do much good. Regardless of alignment I think votes piling on her will just cause her to flail more, which isn't helpful if she's town.

Come on, there's a huge difference between piling votes on someone at the start of D1 for pressure and then later in the day as lynch time nears. Plus we have some unpressured Lemon hunting to assess now. Piling votes on anyone isn't helpful if they're town, and is very helpful if they're scum. I don't like how you don't even consider that possibility.

I think I want Jae or Revan lynched.

[bowdown]

Right, and those votes earlier were much more for pressure (e.g. Titus's naked vote). Votes now on Lemon are votes to lynch.

[bowdown]

Thinking about it Revan. 287 really bugs me.

[bowdown]

Just to make sure I have everything timelines right on this:

Jae says (somewhere, I can't find it actually, but Nancy refers to it in 224) that putting people at L-2/1 is a good way to get a read on them.

Nancy wants to know why you're against running Lemon up in 224.

You agree with my way earlier reasoning that lemon pressure will actually hinder her hunting and getting a read. You also have a townread on lemon in that ridiculously long post replying to Nancy's ridiculously long post.

You are defending a townread from lynch, not protecting from pressure.

Think I got it. That is fine with me. The last sentence is still bugging me:

Regardless of alignment I think votes piling on her will just cause her to flail more, which isn't helpful if she's town.

Really couldn't give you a good reason. It feels slippy/more knowledgeable about lemons alignment. But I can't actually think through/articulate why.

[bowdown]

Thank you Jae for the more general theory content. Even with your rephrasing of your comment about votes on lemon, the original still bothers me. Even your second one feels like it's coming from a place of already knowing lemon's alignment.

[bowdown]

I want to talk about Revan's claim that he called Titus scum to get a read. Here's where it starts. BTW this started off as a "why Revan is lying" post and morphed into the opposite. I think it's really easy to disbelieve Revan's claim of this because of how long it takes from him voting Jae to actually explaining why he was voting Titus, for reactions/evidence.

Page 4 is read!

A lot of what JaeReed is posting seems very simple and easily producible, sub-par with what I would expect out of an IC.

Titus is obviously scum. Insincere questioning, and posts seem to be coming from someone that has the motivation to distract town.

VOTE: Titus

Keep in mind that Revan claims this is just to get a read on Titus.

I say we lynch Titus.

Jae why are you scumreading tojam? Putting him at the bottom of your list doesn't mean that it's justified at all.

Reiterating pressure. Very next post, Titus:

So what's next here? Does PR cc now? Wait until tomorrow? Something else?

A PR only claims if one shot bp cannot exist within their framework.

Titus continues in the thread getting me to move my vote to Lemon. Soon after, we get:

Titus is being pretty uncooperative, and hard to read.

Why don't you defend yourself?

The lack of defending yourself against a single vote and scumread is telling. Here's the thing - soon after is the post (210) where Revan moves off of voting Titus and onto Jae. I believe this is sincere because Revan's questions toward Titus earlier are "why aren't you defending yourself" and then another plain "I say we lunch Titus". Those are questions yes but not actively pushing the lynch of Titus.

Now, it takes a while before Revan admits that was the reason for his vote (269), which I felt like was tacked on after the fact. But Revan's questions @Jae are actually trying to push a lynch of Jae.

Then why didn't they press them for answer so if they were trying to solve the game? Either way, it's indicative of scum.

It does actually, well, most if it. You never scumread tojam before, then you opportunistically jump on the wagon.

^ Nevermind I just remembered the EccentricLion slip.

I think Lion is town here. This is more in-depth and subtle analysis than I saw from him in his scumgame.

I also scumread this. I scumread anyone for meta-reading. Meta reads are just an easy way out for scum. "x is y because this isn't their z game"

Bowdown let's lynch Jae so then you know I'm town when they flip red. It will make the rest of the game a lot easier for you.

TLDR: I believe Revan saying he was voting Titus to get a read there.

UNVOTE:

[bowdown]

Thinking that (Revan's Titus thing) over on the way in to work - i don't think him telling the truth is very alignment indicative though. It's not a scumtell/scumslips/major scum read as it would be if he was lying about voting Titus for pressure. But it's plausible to see scum-Revan voting Titus for read/to see what the rest of us thought of that vote and Titus, and then pushing a pretty flawed case on Jae.

[bowdown]

@GL how would my Titus scumread still be genuine? That makes no sense. I figured the best way to get a reaction is to call them out as "obviously scum" to get them panicked that they got caught so easily.

I don't buy this. I don't believe that you would be town with no read on Titus who makes that first post calling Titus "obviously scum". The fact that you're trying to walkback the declared scumread looks fake, like you wanted to come out swinging for towncred and then felt the need to invent a reason afterwards to explain why you were aggressive initially and then backing off afterwards.

Town doing a reaction gambit as you're describing would still have a legitimate scumread on Titus driving their post, but you posted 269 as if you never had a read to begin with. But even in the last sentence here you're now suggesting that you had some level of suspicion on Titus, but that's not what you said in 269.

GL, I disagree with you on pretty much everything here. See 331. Town could have a legit scumread, but also could have a null read like Revan claims.

[bowdown]

Something that I think is lost in the conversation about Lemon is that Lemon is new. I think I am the only one of the noobs with prior forum mafia/werewolf experience. Nobody else came out super awkward - some of us (myself included, Jae, maybe someone else?) are somewhat giving lemon a pass on that initial awkwardness because she's new, but it makes a lot of sense that noob-mafia would be super nervous at the start of the game. No other noobs were like that.

Jae, you even gave sparkles town cred for not sounding sketchy in their entrance:

So there's a reason I asked Sparkles about experience.

Imagine this is your first game and you drew scum. Do you spam the thread like this, or do you carefully craft your first post while being shit scared of saying the wrong thing?

GL and I jumped on this earlier and I kinda just gave lemon an "okay you're new, show me how you can hunt" pass. Her hunting has been...Okay? Most of it boils down to "Titus isn't posting in depth posts so is scummy". Even so there is still a preoccupation with votes on her and people's scumread of her - 318 with just two votes on her?

Not super confident, but I'm comfortable enough with lynching Lemon.

VOTE: EccentricLemon

[bowdown]

Lemon is at L-1

[bowdown]

Revan why are you voting lemon?

[bowdown]

I actually hate that you're on lemon.

My analysis can be simple because a lot of the people in this game are easy to read, except Titus and GuiltyLion.

You've said you townread lemon, you have defended lemon, you have never once said that lemon is scummy, and this certainly isn't a self-save.

VOTE: Revan

[bowdown]

You had two votes on you. Town-Revan says "there still are three days left I should try to convince people to vote my biggest scumread Jae/Titus" - you're not the only one that has neutral/scummy reads on those two. Town-Revan does not "self save" onto one of his townread with two out of five votes on him.

[bowdown]

When did your scumread become so dependent on Lemon having communication with a SE/IC? Lots of stuff (e.g. 180) doesnt rely on that.

[bowdown]

Also Revan is at L-1 now

[bowdown]

I'm not voting GL. Feel pretty good that GL = town. Disagree that his logic is terrible. I also disagree with him regarding your Titus vote/scumread thing but that doesn't make his logic terrible.

Your "self-save" onto lemon - that is a terrible vote.

[bowdown]

First of all, I certainly will protect my TR on GL by saying I don't want to vote there.

Three days before lunch, Revan has two votes on him.

I vote Lemon, putting her to 3.

Revan votes previously-TRed Lemon and when pushed claims it was a self save. How in the world is that a reasonable place to self-save onto another one of your town reads?

Walk me through Town-Revan's thought process here and why he acts how he did. He sees me vote Lemon putting her at L-2. He has a town read on Lemon and knows that Lemon is a lynch candidate for most of the village. He sees his two biggest scumreads (I think) Jae and GL voting him.

I think Town-Revan tries to get one of his scumread lynched. Tries to actually put together a decent argument on either of them or point something out that others haven't seen. Both Jae and GL are read fairly mixed at this point in time, it might not be a futile effort and I might be able to get some traction on a lynch on my scumreads in the three friggin days remaining until lynch.

I don't see how town-Revan decides to instead push one of his townreads to L-1, claim it was a self-save when he has two votes on him, not try to get one of his scumreads lynched at the time, and then now that he is at L-1 say that now there is time to run someone else up. When he wasn't under pressure and voted his town read Lemon, there was no push to run Jae/GL/anyone else up - he was content to just self-save onto lemon.

It doesn't make sense. Revan is scum.

[bowdown]

@bowdown I was townreading EL on page 2. Why do you believe that that read is still current? It looks like you're stretching now.

- You had that initial TR on lemon.

- You said that everyone in the game was easy to read except Titus and GL

- You called out Titus as obvious scum (presumably for reactions), you have tried to get GL and Jae lynched, and yet I never heard a peep out of you regarding EL until you voted.

Most damning though is when I asked you about your vote on lemon right after you voted you literally only said because it was a self-save and that's it. No comment saying that lemon is scummy, nothing trying to push for a lemon lynch. Don't try to go back and say that you had a scumread on lemon when you made that vote. No way.

I actually hate that you're on lemon.

My analysis can be simple because a lot of the people in this game are easy to read, except Titus and GuiltyLion.

You've said you townread lemon, you have defended lemon, you have never once said that lemon is scummy, and this certainly isn't a self-save.

VOTE: Revan

It is a self save, though.

[bowdown]

Two days until deadlijne.
It's the counter.
He doesn't townread EL.

Two days until deadline - Revan was just fine "self-saving" onto lemon who he had expressed zero suspicion on and I don't believe he actually scumread when he wasn't at L-1, but now that he is at the top of the tally wants to try to scumhunt?

Counter: He had two votes. Not like he was close to being lynched. Town who is actually invested in trying to find scum pushes scumreads. Revan did not.

TR of EL: see post above. If he didn't TR EL you'd think he would have just maybe pointed that out when I asked him about his vote?

[bowdown]

I only have a slight TR on EL, so I don't mind.

I don't know if I believe you or not. Let's pretend that you do have just a slight townread there.

Why the heck when Lemon is at 3 and you are at 2 and you are scumreading Jae and GL do you think the best course of action is to vote up your slight townread to L-1 and not vote/push on one of your scumreads?

[bowdown]

I was voting my scumread. You're really grasping for straws here.

Forgot that you were already voting Jae. I really don't think I'm grasping at straws - you switched your vote off of a scumread to a slight townread for a "self save" with two freaking votes on you. I don't see how that is towny.

[bowdown]

Jae, explain how at that point in the game, Revan and Lemon are each other's counters with only two votes on Revan and three on Lemon.

[bowdown]

I wanted the theory/thoughts on counters and self saving. I feel like Revan and I started off disagreeing whether that was an appropriate self save, argued around in a circle, and made our way back to whether that's an okay self save vote or not. If that's a reasonable/okay self-vote, i need to reread Revan (especially the last few pages)

[bowdown]

Hang on, I thought lunch was in a few hours? The last vote post from Cakes had it about 9:30 AM PST (~3 hours from now)

[bowdown]

Revan, I'm actually pretty cool with your defense against me knowing that was a reasonable self-save vote.

Plan to move back to lemon - pretty sure she is at L-2 right?

[bowdown]

Or tracker?

Slip in Nancy's 429? Not running her up today but need to make sure we talk about this tomorrow.

[bowdown]

Can you change your plans? Maybe... GL?

Nope. GL is still a strong townread of mine - I posted about it a couple of days ago.

[bowdown]

Yeesh - guess it was way back on Monday (200). I'll reread GL since then again but really don't think it'll change my read enough to vote there.

[bowdown]

I like his response to me in 349. Not trying to justify each thing that happened, just an easygoing "this just kind of happened" post. Some arguing with Titus, pushing your lynch, a bit preoccupied with Titus pushing a GL-EL scumteam but I still see somebody towny who is clearly trying to solve the game.

[bowdown]

I think EL is too townread to be lynched today.

Jae is the right lynch.

Lemon and Sparkles - this post isn't saying that Revan has too much of a townread on Lemon, this is saying that Revan feels that too many people in the village townread lemon to get lemon lynched.

[bowdown]

Sparkles - go read Revan and I arguing (not in ISO) keeping in mind that tge initial self save vote was a legit self save.

Read it once from a town-Revan, has a town lean on Lemon context. Then read it again from scum-Revan perspective and tell me which makes more sense.

[bowdown]

VOTE: EccentricLemon

368

Lemon is at L-1, Revan L-2

[bowdown]

Fixing post link in the last post.

362

[bowdown]

VOTE: Nancy

Quickly here, will be on more later. Also will be here a couple hours before lynch time.

[bowdown]

Or tracker?

Slip in Nancy's 429? Not running her up today but need to make sure we talk about this tomorrow.

Yup. Would vastly prefer to lynch her off that alone. It shows knowledge of there being a roleblocker in the setup. The only people who would know for sure the setup are scum and the jailkeeper, and scum would be more likely to be fixated on jailkeeper to the point where they forget main thread knowledge isn't in line with that. The jailkeeper would be doing everything in their power to not slip knowledge of the setup because scum could find them and nightkill them in that situation.

Agreed. Thanks to nancy for ruling out the nancy-jailkeeper scenario:

I'm pretty convinced that Lemon is PR

[bowdown]

Not voting Nancy.

Taking note of how easy it is to derail EL without a claim.

Why the heck are you not?

[bowdown]

It's not very common, but Town thought

they

caught a scumslip, which aren't very common either.

Hey look I found another one!

[bowdown]

Nancy, regardless of how you try to spin it, you posted from a perspective of knowing a jailkeeper exists when the only people that could know that are scum and the actual jailkeeper, which you aren't.

[bowdown]

Morning! Nancy, I still don't know how what you did wasn't a giant scumslip.

Before you die, how's you get to me at an 80% scumread? Happy to answer any questions - I feel like I've been doing quite a bit of scunhunting (maybe overzealous at times)

[bowdown]

Lemon, why does the fact that you weren't the hammer matter for voting Nancy?

[bowdown]

The townbloc I have right now is {Myself, Bowdown, Tojam}. If we carry this into LYLO we win.

I don't know if I feel good enough about you for this - but I don't want you dead today. Us arguing about your lemon vote made me feel decently good on you.

Sparkles, your last big post basically said the same stuff on Revan that he and I argued back and forth on. I don't feel like you even kept up with the discussion - just read Revan in ISO.

[bowdown]

Titus, was Jae clearly jailkeeper yesterday after the twilight posts w/Nancy?

[bowdown]

Titus, was Jae clearly jailkeeper yesterday after the twilight posts w/Nancy?

Or GL, now that you're here.

[bowdown]

Revan (3) - GuiltyLion, JaeReed, bowdown
EccentricLemon (3) - Titus, Revan, tojam2
GuiltyLion (1) - nancy

Not voting (2) - Agent Sparkles, EccentricLemon

With 9 alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch someone.

(expired on 2017-01-16 11:14:00) remain until day end

^ unofficial, by my count.

Spoiler: Quote wall

I'm back. First things first, I retract 376 and apologize for a crappy post. Cheap way to "out" oneself as town. It's relevant however that my scumread of Lemon and especially of Lemon/Jae depended partially on certain private communications having taken place (e.g., 168). Titus is right about pregame coaching.

On Revan: this personality type has a tendency to seem scummy even when they aren't (kind of similar to how EL's personality has a tendency to seem townie when they aren't). I'm not going to join this wagon today.

On D1 lynch: I should play to win the game. It isn't at all clear how to interpret this, however. Do I lynch who I think is scummiest or who I think will give us the best chance of catching scum down the track? Lynching Lemon would certainly free up headspace to look elsewhere, and she doesn't post or scumhunt much - only 2 more posts than mod - so if she flips Town it isn't as though we'd be losing a great deal. I'm kind of disinclined to lynch her though, because she's been giving off at least

some

towntells recently, and there are better options immediately available: GuiltyLion and Titus.

I'm just going to bank on either GL or Titus being scum. And not both. GL has contributed pretty much nothing all day, but I'm also pretty unimpressed by how little Titus came up with after the naked vote on EL, so either makes sense to me.

Which results in a lynching priority for me of: GL, Titus, EL, Agent Sparkles, bowdown, revan

VOTE: GuiltyLion

Feel free to try to convince me to hammer or not hammer Lemon, but I'd prefer GL/Titus.

I don't like the sudden shift here. Your last read on guilty was nulltown, wasn't it? Now you change that to scum because of low contribution when in fact he's contributed a fair amount to the discussion. If that's really what you care most about at this point, then me or Titus would be a more realistic priority.

What's your opinion on Revan? You voted him earlier, which suggests you scumread him.

Oh I miscounted, I thought EL was at L-1.

Revan and Titus have already expressed willingness to lynch GL. Tojam also appears willing, though he has stated that he prefers EL. This puts L-1 on GL within easy reach. I don't think his claim is particularly relevant at this point. If he's the real jailer (1/7) then we're fucked, but otherwise it's irrelevant. If he's mafia, he'll almost certainly claim jailer to try to and bait a cc. I doubt the real jailer would out at this point, preferring to just hammer or wait for someone else to hammer if they're already on the wagon. He could also claim vanilla, but this is unlikely because it doesn't do anything for his chances of survival and doesn't stand to give his partner anything to work with. In other words, real jailer shouldn't out/cc D1, so a jailer claim should be ignored. No matter who we lynch we're running a 1/7 chance of being wrong and lynching the real jailer. I like those odds.

There's only a 50/50 chance that there's even a jailer in the game, but yeah, they shouldn't out today.

Revan, your recent posts have only made me more suspicious of you. This progression on Lemon is terrible:

I think EL is too townread to be lynched today.

Jae is the right lynch.

VOTE: EL

I don't want EL in LYLO anyway

It is a self save, though.

@bowdown I was townreading EL on page 2. Why do you believe that that read is still current? It looks like you're stretching now.

I only have a slight TR on EL, so I don't mind.

I was voting my scumread. You're really grasping for straws here.

I believe EL will flip 60% green 40% red.

I scumread both of you.

Let me get this straight. In a span of 4 pages, you (in order) say EL is too town to be lynched, vote EL and say you don't want her in LYLO, claim it was a self-save, say that you were townreading her on page 2 and not necessarily anymore (pretty sure the 2 was a typo, but regardless it was only 2 pages and 3 of your posts ago), claim that you do in fact townread her (although slightly), backtrack and say you voted her because you scumread her, and then say that she's 60% town and 40% scum. In the process, you push Lemon to L-1 and later claim that there's plenty of time to lynch Guilty. You're being really incoherent.

And about this:

If I was town/scum reading Titus I would have no reason to do a reaction test.

I'll lynch GL if none of you will lynch Jae.

There was a reason I asked about scum communication. Since you and Titus were my top scumreads, I considered a hypothetical scenario were you were partners and your strategy of attacking Titus for a reaction and later unvoting was your way of bussing for credit without actually lynching her. This would've been undermined if scum could talk during the day, since you could've informed her of what you were trying to do and she probably would've been more cooperative. Alone, it's not a very strong case to make against you, but combined with the above quote wall and everything else you've said and done, it's hard to see you as town.

VOTE: Revan

Nancy had just moved from Revan to GL. Sparkles comes in and votes Revan and tries to get Nancy to go there. Sparkles is ignoring what's actually happening in the thread and Revan's explanations. Could be an attempt at a lemon save if sparkles/lemon scumteam (which I think is one of the more likely pairings).

[bowdown]

Titus, was Jae clearly jailkeeper yesterday after the twilight posts w/Nancy?

Or GL, now that you're here.

I think once nancy revealed that she was not a PR, it became obvious from Jae's jump onto her that he was jailkeeper. If Jae were VT, he may have not pushed so aggressively on the "slip" since it could have also technically been a JK-slip. Nancy also basically pointed this out herself in 506, which is kinda annoying as well - I thought she was scum rolefishing Jae at the time, it made no sense for town to post that.

Thanks, I actually want to hear Titus's thoughts on this too before I jump in.

[bowdown]

Learned nothing from Titus, thanks :p

I ask because I was surprised to see Jae flip JK - and thinking about the NK on one hand if expect more experienced players to be more likely to pick up on that, but on the other hand Jae wasn't a surprising kill becausr they were leading the village.

[bowdown]

Anyways, VOTE: Sparkles for my earlier posts and for doing jack shit for a week and a half.

Fine with the votes on EL. Want to see Titus and GL have it out. Towny enough on Revan that I don't want to go there. And tojam is all but conftown.