Newbie 1769: Happy New Year! (Post-Game)

[cassielle]

...yeah i dont understand mbg here at all and im calling this confscum

this is an indefensible push on a slot thats clearly weak to pushes (as ive already pointed out more than once) and i cannot see any town reason for not sharing his arguments with the rest of the players

literally nothing but "OH HEY GAMESOLVED LYNCH THESE" with nothing to back it up and no reason to buy into the reasoning

do you really expect town to sheep you because "lol the scumteam" come on man

VOTE: mattblackguy

p-edit: mbg is really pushing this hard and considering his pushes on other unpopular slots (one conftown) also shared this sort of venomous tone which isnt at all in keeping with the rest of his ISO, im more and more certain of this

and @ rask imo its a tossup between creature and schadd_ for the partner but mbg is defo

[cassielle]

mbg doesnt really engage creature actively, theres little discussion between them (poss distancing? also poss NAI, creature doesnt give anyone much to chew on)

on the other hand mbg and -grey- and mbg and schadd_ also make equally as much sense. not so much distancing there though, just a matter of general interactions among those slots. i feel mbg+schadd_ is more likely than mbg+creature on a quick doublecheck

i dont see an mbg + rc team in any universe, and an mbg+gbT team feels like a HUGE stretch -- possible but theyd have to both be playing really well. that narrows it down pretty damn well tbh depending on how -grey- creature and schadd_ react to this turn of events

p-edit: -grey- doesnt feel like scum bussing but im not 100% on this

it DOES read strong town though still, so im confident taking grey off that list

creature and schadd_'s reactions are gonna make a world of difference here

[cassielle]

i didnt like the d1 hammer but im not seeing it from a scum mindset, so many players saying out right theyll jump the gun on anyone who hammers w/o further consideration? its a suicide play unless youre REALLY SUPER CONFIDENT that you can convince all of them not to lynch you on principle

makes more sense from panicking town seeing a top town read under danger from scumhammer

p-edit: im the one pushing the schadd_ wagon today but -grey- started it d1 so that part checks out

feels like massive buddying tho

[cassielle]

read as scum rask.
1: casts doubt on own play so when they flip town he can explain it away as "oh... well... i guess i was wrong!" and it tracks
2: have max certainty to see if you can get people to sheep you. there have been a couple examples of what OUTWARDLY appears to be this in this game (re: rc, gbT) but they also had good arguments presented laconically. noobscum might get the wrong impression

[cassielle]

EBWOP: radiant also makes a good point

[cassielle]

wild ass guess: mbg will hold true to his meta this game thus far and present a lot of cogent arguments solely harvested from other people, no original reasoning

[cassielle]

lol im new here and even i can see this is a mess

i have a feeling if we could pinpoint the exact trouble post that started the mess we could end the game

ive tried a couple times but i cant pull it off, it all blends in on the first 7 pages or thereabouts

[cassielle]

Hey RC can you go into your schadd townread pls thanks

also really want to hear this

[cassielle]

been rereading mbg ISO while i wait. rask, you realize he metad you with intent to lynch you before you could get confirmed yeah?

so he pushed with that confident, venomous tone on TWO conftown slots, rask and TB, and also pushed on -grey- yesterday citing other people's work and "no im pretty sure this is totally scum guys" i mean look at 1312 -- and RC now?

if this argument isnt the best one ive ever heard i think im gonna end up dismissing it tbh, this is a recurring aspect and its ALL going on either conftown slots or my strong townreads rofl

[cassielle]

wrt 320: at that point in time shade was semi active in short bursts. not continuously no, but the bursts of activity were consistent and i can see the scumhunting there. remember that shade joined very late -- iirc, after rakkar. it was a weak but widely agreed upon townread, even from me.

wrt the hammer: i can see that, but it would also be textbook bad scumplay: everyone was saying WE WILL LYNCH HAMMERERS, and if RC flipped town schadd_ would be next up without even a shred of doubt! unsupported townread from confscum? lynch it. thats always a safe bet.

creature's d2 ISO is full of sheeping and deflection of attention (off of me which is cool but still) and creature's talking about a schadd_ townflip being helpful is really ugly when it definitely would not be helpful and you shouldnt lynch someone youre not very very sure of flipping red

not buying this, gonna keep my vote where it is

[cassielle]

EBWOP and if RC flipped scum***** schadd_ would be next up

[cassielle]

in fact im going to go out and say that the point about the hammering makes this scumteam a no-sell for me

i do not believe it for a second, it would be actively playing against wincon and anyone on town's side assuming anything else ranges from WIFOM to outright ignorance of the way the game is played

[cassielle]

no way, he could have bussed schadd_ if he was that sure schadd_ wasnt going to get out of that lynch. call intent to hammer, when schadd_ flips red you coast to endgame. nope. refuse to buy, no sale, sorry

[cassielle]

in fact im so vehemently against this argument that im gonna say it outright: if one of the two is scum the other is town. i cannot accept this scumteam, its so contrary to what i know about the game that to assume its a remotely possible scumteam requires ignoring wincons entirely. in such a case reads are impossible, the game is thrown

i insist mbg is the best wagon of all wagons and wholeheartedly present it to the town as confscum

feast

[cassielle]

he has no such thing, iirc its against his meta. but thank you for destroying your own argument

[cassielle]

my bad on the bussing, i thought i read that it was against his meta, was just looking for the post but folks have corrected me since. right, sorry

-grey-'s counterargument to that STILL flattens yours mbg

[cassielle]

and i did not know this rask, i know how matrix6 is set up but not any of the meta surrounding it. /regardless/ this out of the blue push on rc is really pinging me so hard and the argument is so /weak/

[cassielle]

yeah thats my read. i dont think hes ever pushed a wagon that didnt have weight on it all game long? cba checking but

nothing comes to mind. sheeped gbt, sheeped me, sheeped you, sheeped you AGAIN, sheeped grey

[cassielle]

sounds good, i eagerly await

also mbg: that doesnt fit with you sheeping rc twice, recall rc's criticism of grey and his compromise vote on schadd_ with me? yeah, its not good play to sheep your biggest scumreads

you should be voting on them, not with them

i do not buy these arguments you have

[cassielle]

misquoted rask :p but i know you meant 1402

[cassielle]

the problem im having with "plausible" here is that all of that plausibility is hinging on one aspect of an otherwise content-free argument in favor of lynching a vulnerable slot, an argument you yourself noted feels hastily constructed

"plausible" on one corner of a structure thats supposed to have three still leads to a falling building, and so it is with this argument

i do agree though, i want gbT on board here before day ends and id like rask to be able to wake up and give conf-town reads on the situation before we hammer

IDEALLY id like to draw the day out to near deadline but im aware by now that this is unpopular and im really really sure of scum!mbg

[cassielle]

mbg at L-2, lets not go to L-1 until gbt adds their $0.02 and rask returns please

im also wanting to see schadd_ and creature pitch a couple posts in before hammer. this is the sort of situation that i want to get a little of everyone to post on before we hammer the slot, better reads d3

[cassielle]

and what precisely about his past few posts has said town to you creature

i cannot see a town motivation here. he sheeped his way around the whole game, no original reads. he pointed at other peoples' posts to come up with solid-looking reasons for why.

this time he has some original reasoning: and his two original points are just "nah i see it like scum" but without much explanation of why. the hammer maybe is a solid point, yeah, but its also the part he could have sheeped off of my earlier posts, gbT, etc... long list of people who really didnt like Radiant hammering.

the explanation that IS there relies wholly on reading as scum to begin with and falls apart if one flips green or even just disagrees with the premises -- for instance just read 1381, how can mbg possibly know why shade replaced out? esp considering shade hasnt posted since anywhere on the forums. (feel free to check if you disbelieve.)

thats NAI, period, but without a solid platform on shade his schadd_ read's original reasoning falls apart and dies (NOTE: not saying schadd_ doesn't look like scum, saying mbg's reasoning is flimsy) and without having the schadd_ read his RC read dies. its nonlinear reasoning couched in the appearance of logic:

Q: why is schadd scum?
A: because shade is scum and schadd_ had a read i dislike on that slot.
Q: why is radiantcowbells scum?
A: because it's the same slot as shade and supported schadd_.
Q: why is shade scum?
A: because he replaced out and i attached scum motives to it.

take shade out:

Q: why is schadd_ scum?
A: because ???
Q: why is radiantcowbells scum?
A: because they supported schadd_

and then on top of that, only jumping on wagons with weight already on them, and more importantly only active wagons, not stalled ones?
concern with appearances d1?
a definite change in tone toward the cartoon villain end of things when hes pushing a weighty wagon?
(if you want references for that last one, i have a couple here, let's see. 913, 1292)

defend a townread of this slot and i will take my vote off. yes, even if my other scumreads can defend it. because i dont think its defensible and if anyone can deal a blow to the scumread i have on mbg i cannot reasonably trust anything i think about this game

[cassielle]

i agree with schadd_

i dont buy mbg being town and i dont see either of -grey- or rc being scum

id like to see explanations for those reads.

[cassielle]

im not wholly sold on schadd_, creatures just as likely there from where im at

you on the other hand are near 100%

this vote is staying put

[cassielle]

sorry, but i want an in depth defense of mbg's slot being townread before i even consider a different path here, because i dont see any defensible townread of him

if you can knock down, lets say any three of my arguments from 1418 ill think about dropping that read. i make at least 6 arguments there and i think theres 4 i would be swayed on if you can come up with almost any convincing town reasoning for them, so i mean, this shouldnt be hard at all if youre really solid on that mbg townread and it isnt a plain gutread

until then scum is scum and im here to lynch scum

[cassielle]

yeah its crazy to say. its also exactly what everyone else was saying at the time, just not quite as strongly as that

[cassielle]

also wrt his reads he has a gamesolve readslist when no one else is that solid on their reads?? one is ONCE AGAIN effectively a lurk slot and the other is widely scumread because of an unpopular hammer, making them both fairly easy lynches to push?

im not seeing that

[cassielle]

checked my notes

IF mbg flips town (im pretty sure he wont) then rc and schadd_ are top of the list anyway with grey and gbT as runnersup based on his posts to date

i will call this bluff

imo: lynch mbg. in the incredibly unlikely universe where thats a townflip, track rc or schadd (rasks pick) and lynch the one most likely to have been nk based on rasks info
if it flips red, others dead

i can live with this

[cassielle]

whats everyones thoughts on 1442

[cassielle]

yeah im asking everyone else though, lemme see a couple replies here

[cassielle]

in fact

UNVOTE:

i want day to keep going until i get an opinion from every slot on 1442

full stop

[cassielle]

creature? 1442? opinions? theories? funny jokes?

[cassielle]

i need to sleep, but i really do want to have those 1442 opinions to come back to. maybe you guys could give folks who come back, catch up and end up seeming to avoid the question or maybe forgetting/missing it a reminder that i really want an opinion there. i think this is critical in fact

@rask id like rc to put his schadd_ townread up too, so dont feel obligated to put this first. i think 1442 is more important but ill take whichever i can get from radiant tbh

[cassielle]

hmmmmm.

interesting indeed.

rask, would you mind dropping me another spur of the moment opinion on 1442?

humor me

[cassielle]

thank you

VOTE: mbg L-1

i wish that -grey- had chipped in but well

im confident on that townread, -grey- doesnt surprise me anymore, so yeah

REALLY feeling creature or gbT for this team, yeah, schadd_ is dismissive af. i /really/ dislike townreading his slot but w/e ill get over it i hated townreading -grey- and rc too at first

[cassielle]

another crack in mbg's horrendously flawed argument

cue applause

[cassielle]

so uh, whats optimal play for us wrt mbg now that its at l-1? should i just afk to go make dinner and get back to studying?

[cassielle]

yeah im feeling the same way here rask

i got some runner up suspects but yeah thats a d3 thing.

[cassielle]

I don't see how selfhammering as town is good play though.

THIS

[cassielle]

no i will its cool UNVOTE:

[cassielle]

rask should i bring out my current thoughts or you want me to wait till tomorrow?

[cassielle]

actually rc why arent you considering a mbg flipping town world, even if you do in fact think its unlikely? is it entirely impossible from your perspective? or are you just really really sure of it to the point that if youre wrong youll eat the d3 lynch on your wagon, if it goes that direction?

what about you schadd_, lets hear your opinions on the current situation here. how do you feel about this wagon, you like where its heading? you like the folks on board? where do you think the other scum is?

[cassielle]

alright, cool, but what if he does? i mean, town isnt infallible

town can in fact be wrong, and town can look really scummy too

call it a counterfactual or w/e, just humor me here. what happens if mbg flips green

[cassielle]

jw, arent those the same slots you think are mbg's most likely scum partners? @radiant

[cassielle]

so mbg flip tells us nothing? i mean either way theres only two other slots youre looking at and they dont look easy to get a wagon on from here

im sorta where schadd is if thats the case and im not feeling too awesome about an mbg scumflip either because mbg's flip in general is NAI for everyone else it seems, judging by your reads

do you think we should maybe look at another slot, keeping the finger of shame stacked on mbg as a reminder that hes not off of the hook? or do you think that lynching scum that doesnt tell us anything about who their partner is is worthwhile here?

[cassielle]

i want to see what creature has to say. or -grey-.

[cassielle]

does creature bus as scum? does anyone know if this is the case?

because it could be that creature is just really not the bussing type, would want to save you on principle

or it could be AI

[cassielle]

repeating that you are town isnt an argument

its a reminder

youre using it as an argument

[cassielle]

wrong

because everyone else is scumreading you, its more useful to look at worlds where you are scum than not for us

you can say whatever you like, but talking bussing is valid until and unless we change our minds

[cassielle]

also reminder for folks coming back: pages 62 and 63 are necessary reading when youre catching up

i wouldnt skim them personally

[cassielle]

nah, we already went over that bit, so now its time to check out other lines of thought. maybe if you help you can convince people? instead of just sitting there saying "im town" and trying to derail anything remotely incriminating to you i mean

so creature bussing meta anyone?

[cassielle]

Hey Cassielle, what's your opinion on this?

I can't catch up and post more than this tonight because I'm really busy with a sudden real life issue, and the fact this game has so many new posts is not helping.

@Aeronaut Please don't replace me from the game! I will promised try to be more active.

Just answering to a post I read last night

@gigabyteTroubadour I was suspecting gayreen as scum. That was the main reason I asked questions about your reads cause your read about gayreen felt really weird to me. I don't suspect him as scum with TB necessarily, not sure why you were expecting me to scum read them as a team. The way he kept his vote around as a threat and got confused after TB claim is actually scummy to me but first thing that came to my mind was the way he was asking for permissions to vote [like asking help from a more talented player] and I voted ThinkGig mainly to see what will you and GAYreenHamster do about it (and to actually remind ThinkBig to answer my question) which was disrupted with this wagon on me.

As I think it won't have the effect I wanted anymore UNVOTE: ThinkBig

I will answer anything else which was asked from me later when I have time to fully catch up and comment about stuff and will sort my reads.

Sorry for this, Have a good night

it scans

he was having trouble contributing (though his contributions were scheduled and regular) and he ended up replacing out without continuing any site activity. feels town

the TB vote was arguably scummy but its about as noobtown as it is noobscum -- he missed rvs and wanted to play, lol -- and so the unvote makes sense from both ends too. in other words, NAI (or so slightly AI that basing any read on it is really suspect)

also remember mbg's argument for rc being scum relied on shade being scum because he replaced out when schadd_ was under fire. but this implies he was crumbling when TB was under fire and TB IS CONFTOWN

so this argument against shade doesnt track, the slot looks good

[cassielle]

"This means that you can be mafia as well? I was assuming it's 1 newbie/1 SE team, isn't it?" pretty obviously newbtownie but still is
"What gave you the impression that someone is going to hammer you soon?" @ TB
"why should scum bother to scum read you when they can just kill you? why town can't mistakenly scum read you?" @ me for not liking that gayreen voted me (i don't really get what his thought process was but i think that's townie in this case)
"what is POE ? Point of elimination? If you hate that why you used it last page when you started striking people?" is scumhunty. helps that you're pretty high on my scumlist

a bunch of other stuff like that. it is ultimately a holistic and intuitive read, because i can read through his questions and nothing stands out to me like "no, you don't have an excuse not to know that" or something. that's kinda hard to do i think

wrt to these:

NAI
town
towwwwn this is basically saying "town doesnt know a damn thing, do you happen to have knowledge we dont?" i.e. implying schadd_ is scum (scum omniscience tell) and really thats so town that if shade werent obvnoob id say to dismiss it out of paranoia
i dont see the scumhunting

[cassielle]

but now that rask has caught up

hey rask, mind talking to me about page 63?

like, the whole thing

just, summarize for me, hold nothing back, tell me what you think about the events of page 63

[cassielle]

id also really like to hear creature's summarized ultra-condensed opinion on page 63. i dont care about the opinions of anyone who was actually on that page atm though

[cassielle]

i know! but i really want to see what you and creature put out front about page 63. me personally, i could condense it to a single username.

but i would like to see if you guys see what i see.

[cassielle]

i just woke up

@ rask creature and -grey-, top two scum reads other than matt before we end day

calling intent to hammer once everybody ready

[cassielle]

jfc. i have all the info i need going into d3 and radiant's brain drops into his liver on a creature vote no one is gonna sheep

rc doesnt want to lynch scum and these gamesolve reads are horseshit from him, mbg and gbt

[cassielle]

VOTE: mattblackguy

[cassielle]

countdown to hammer i believe. time for those last thoughts if you want to give them i think

[cassielle]

things i would normally consider: who didnt post anything of value when rask put the timer up? who has nothing to say to and nothing to get from town?

the answer: all of us. wow. this game is cursed

[cassielle]

yeah ive been watching the clock too, just

normally people would want their d2 reads to hit the public record if theyre town you know, or theyd want to tunnel someone last minute to get info out of someone they suspect, things like that. use the time pressure to force town/scum reaction

but nothing of the sort here

its just this game tho yknow like im doing it too i cant even blame anyone

pedit: i caught it too

[cassielle]

tbh if you were a pr id figure you would have claimed when the screws first got put to you at l-1, before rask requested an unvote to stop a self-hammer.

btw, im p sure rc is scum if matt actually flips green, like 100%

didnt want to lynch scum at end, requested scum behavior from mbg toward the midpoint of this drawn out process and generally ignored any potential "i might be wrong" scenarios unless pressed with just the right tone

yep, see town soon

[cassielle]

mod, creature is in the above votecount still

[cassielle]

im staring in dumb, mute shock

one of you three has to be town

but youre all acting scum af

[cassielle]

gbT honestly i cant convince you because im not sure you arent scum yourself and i doubt youd bus atm

at this point im not sure what approach to take because town is really, really not working in towns favor this game, so if i look like im lurking, its

dumbfounded silence

idk what to say

[cassielle]

im in dumbfounded silence because both scum are among the first three players in game today (not counting myself with the mod correction thing) and the guaranteed town player in that group is acting exactly like them

i dont know how to tease that apart and i doubt i can convince town to sheep me on such a thin basis

"yeah pick a random name here 2/3 chance its not a ml!"

today? hell no. goodway to lose in fact -- if i can manage that wagon its almost definitely going to be a ml. i need to actually figure out which one of you is def scum and its awfully difficult when town is following the leader

[cassielle]

because from where im at both scum are in gbT/schadd_/RC

[cassielle]

not an easy argument to make. i can predict his posts -- both roughly what is going to get his attention and demand a response, and roughly what that response will be. ill read a post and say "greys gonna show up here soon", see the avatar and say "and its gonna be along the lines of x" and be in the ballpark every time

[cassielle]

the prediction comes from a little "mental model" of -grey- that i have.i feed in things like "alignment" "gamestate" "posts" and get a plausible -grey-like response out of it. not dissimilar from how most people guess what other people are thinking, you know?

and i dont get the right responses when i feed "scum" into the alignment box. for one thing -grey- would be a lot more likely to step back and ignore light pushes on his slot if he were scum, i think. more likely to post a vote first and provide backup for it later -- in this game the tendency is for the opposite UNLESS (i.e. with mbg) the reasoning is so ridiculously strong that arguing it is arguably antitown

when i feed town into the alignment box my little mental -grey- acts extremely similar to the real deal

[cassielle]

rask please tell me you have AI info

[cassielle]

he took ages to lay off of me and he jumped on my case again a couple times in d2, i made mistakes when referring to past events and got bad reactions i really would rather not have gotten more of, check my ISO for "sorry" and youll see me backing the hell up

i would hardly call it something where he let me off easy, i was retreating for quite some time from that

[cassielle]

schadd_, are you scumreading anyone who isnt me or grey

id just ask for top 3 but you made us the top 2 so

[cassielle]

schadd_ i was asking to try and get a better opinion of you, what reason do you have to not share your best answer at the present time ffs

how is schadd_ getting these hard townreads i do not understand thsi in the least

i dont see it, every argument boils down to... well, one about as good as my grey argument, but im not trying hard to sell anyone on that because i recognize its a crap argument. its just this "this feels town" and to me it looks NAI at best

[cassielle]

opinion: coasting scum since d1

the townreads are all gutreads only because his ISO is devoid of real content to build an opinion on

find me unambiguous scumhunting that isnt sheeping and i will change my mind right here right now

[cassielle]

it looks extremely ambiguous to me gbT. find me one more, because i cant agree to that one, and if i cant agree to the second ill drop it for now because i really really hate moving the goalposts, always feel guilty about it

[cassielle]

EBWOP and besides if thats the only one thats REALLY not very scumhunty and should be outweighed by the size of his content-free ISO after that point

[cassielle]

that game also had a lot more scummy behavior on all sides. this game has long stretches of "EVERYBODY IS TOWN" and then someone goes insane and gets lynched (i.e., tb lurking eternally, mbg jumping off the deep end personality-wise)

so either everyone here is awful at scumhunting or scum are hiding in your townblock, like they have been all game, and either way that means that your d1 reads in this game arent worth anything, no matter how good they are in other games

you literally picked me and TB for the only scum possibles d1 and i had to break that up myself, and tb flipped green anyway. your d1 reads were crap, QED, no matter how confident you are in your scumfinding abilities they were objectively bad

[cassielle]

like in the (unthinkable) case i flipped red your d1 reads would still be wrong as a matter of actual logic so i dont see why your d1 reads being good in another game are defensible here

[cassielle]

if you havent needed to re-evaluate schadd_'s slot im saying you are scum. because that slot has had everyone but RC questioning it by this point and a conftown player is not getting town vibes and you /still/ havent reconsidered, thats sort of ridiculous for a town player, especially when more than one player has been yelling ALL GAME that "scum are in your townblock" with actual logical evidence to back it up ffs

[cassielle]

and HOW does that clear you RC what the hell is with this and you being cleared, what is your obsession with being clear today

gbt/rc scumteam is a likely looking one from where im at folks, pocketing schadd_ to coast to win, what say ye

[cassielle]

im saying that doesnt "clear" anything gbT because its NAI, i was sitting here f5ing the thread like mad

and saying it somehow "clears" you is ridiculous, and focused on appearance not finding and lynching scum

[cassielle]

idc what your past play was like. im saying outright that saying that sentence "clears" /anyone/ is patently absurd

especially since the last person to rejoin the thread was rask -- who is /conftown/, jfc

[cassielle]

FOS:RC

HEAL: -Grey-

[cassielle]

This probably doesn't mean anything to you since you haven't lost to scum!RC yet but if I were scum you would be townreading me here.

you do recognize that scum would have every reason to say this too right, if they knew (as they should) that i ignore meta?

[cassielle]

gbT/schadd_

again, my shitty -grey- townread. but lets put that aside

-grey-/schadd_ doesnt scan. feels bad. -grey-/gbT could work, sure, but lets compare to gbT/schadd_ -- feels a lot better. schadd_ distances, gbT townreads the harder-to-townread schadd_ to give him towncred and save him from an early lynch. -grey-/gbT is very tense but gbT wants to lynch -Grey- and -Grey- isnt quite gunning for gbT in return -- which doesnt really parse. neither of them could save the other in a bad situation. granted, they could be confident the other wont get into that situation in the first place, but i dont buy that, it feels like a good way for scum to flush their wincon i think, because of the offhand my paranoia targets one of them the other cant save them

[cassielle]

EBWOP on the offhand*

[cassielle]

-grey-'s scumread of you is probably weak because the game is a trainwreck with scum hiding in the townblock like ive been jumping up and down shrieking about from the time i joined

and like, you cant really trust any reads you arent 100000000% sure of in this gamestate

[cassielle]

i guess just tell me when you want me to chime in rask, i cant really talk about my own slot like its scum rofl

[cassielle]

i'm town (i dont follow how my d1 comes from scum at all because i wouldnt push a fucking "townbloc" dont care if you think its selfmeta it makes zero sense logistically) and schadd's town

it's his initial townread that i scumread tbh

rc was right in saying i didnt deserve the towncred i got D1 and grey isnt a newbie so im not sure why he townread me

how does this make sense?

[cassielle]

am i paranoid town or does that read like straight up contradiction

[cassielle]

im gonna wait for everybody else to chime in gbT

no offense

[cassielle]

i guess just tell me when you want me to chime in rask, i cant really talk about my own slot like its scum rofl

well on the flipside if I can lock down this townbloc 100% that'd be good too
I like some things about both of you but if you have extra reasons to share that could be useful

in mafia the most vocal people generally win you know, and im dying for sure tonight even with successful lynch

rask, 1946 sorta brought me back in, ended up not sitting back. am i crazy here?

[cassielle]

well i mean

i dont see anything i can add. -grey- is pretty obviously town to me but i cant put good reasons behind it and i accept that

and i mean, i dont see anything ive done as remotely scummy. tho if people are going to say -grey- and me is scum theater but rc and -grey- isnt then theyre barking mad, the only difference is i got upset and rc didnt

[cassielle]

i dont like the team either, the team feels impossible lol

im saying that if that isnt scum theater then me and -grey- isnt either. the ONLY difference is that i lost my nerve and rc didnt, thats it. i mean, except rc kept scum-reading -grey-, but were talking proximate effects here not stuff that happened the next day (me townreading -grey- happened late d2)

p-edit no im not assuming SvS im saying -grey- vs me is an awful awful argument in favor of either of us being scum if -grey- vs rc isnt equally valid

[cassielle]

that isnt a reason to townread us either ftr its a reason to NOT use a really bad argument

[cassielle]

...well fuck, my townread is for shit then.

[cassielle]

im gonna have a cig break, put on street sects, and reread d2 and d3. this throws a wrench into all my reads, yall cleared till further notice

[cassielle]

dont lynch that slot yet i wanna find partner today gimme a bit you guys

[cassielle]

im clearing rc on my end

if me vs grey isnt scum theater (and it wasnt) and grey is scum (and he is) then rc vs grey isnt scum theater and represents playing counter to wincon

[cassielle]

gbT or schadd_ where im at

[cassielle]

yeah -grey- schadd doesnt hold up. gbT

[cassielle]

schadd_ how do you feel about a grey/gbT pairing? im not seeing any reason not to treat that as the true scumteam from where im at

[cassielle]

tc rask

[cassielle]

cool

i actualyl got the GAYreen townread. weak but feasible to me, tbh. mistakes i guess

gbT has been playing townleader and making these really ugly solid townblocks all game though

and that makes sense because GAYreen and gbT had experience together, they might have decided on this course of action early on based on their prior experience

also remember gbT downplaying my potential scumread of GAYreen based on him having offsite experience -- and the site sucking, so still a noob or w/e?

[cassielle]

ugh

im not getting mled in MyLo

make with the intensive interrogation RC, i will not lose town this game

if it isnt gbT/-grey- its schadd_/-grey- im 100% certain

[cassielle]

so we need to pick which , and schadd_ doesnt make sense, so gbT

if im under suspicion now, hit me with it

[cassielle]

i dont understand why -grey- wouldnt do the kill if im on the team? because im not scum but

why? the reasoning makes no sense to me

[cassielle]

er would* do the kill

[cassielle]

well i dont have a good argument other than WIFOM to that. im not scum though and if you lynch me d4 town loses this game, period

[cassielle]

i really really fucking wish i could argue with that. damnit -grey- youre such an ass man

[cassielle]

ugh, well rc already scumreads me, itd REALLY help if i could shut that down lol

[cassielle]

i am hoping rask did track me, but im betting he tracked rc, its what i would have done

and im certain rc is town

[cassielle]

ok, i dont really have any way to argue in favor of myself atm like this, because no ones putting forward any arguments now

the best i got is, gbT makes more sense. -grey- was on a lynch wagon of mine d2 as well because i ... voted rc for the exact reasons i got on -grey-'s case about on d1

that wagon looked sure to go through too. greys vote stayed there until rc vs -grey-, and then went back to me until mbg lost his mind, and the best i could do was try my best to be helpful to town before the hammer dropped. so you have to believe that -grey- would bus me, and idk, maybe he would, and also that scum!me would give up on defense and focus on helping town (which i have no clue if thats the case or not)

[cassielle]

another way to look at it -- if i can be scum, schadd_ can be scum

[cassielle]

ok heres something interesting

grey has voted every slot (ftr he never voted me again after moving his vote to rc, my bad there) currently alive

EXCEPT

gbT

feel free to check

[cassielle]

no hell no lol rask

i was super motivated for scumhunting the last person. what demotivated me was that goddamn argument schadd_/gbT brought up

[cassielle]

look gbT youre playing to your wincon and all

but you should know, i put very little faith in meta

ive brought it up on multiple occasions each day-phase even, to multiple players

why are you still feeding me meta to try and gun down that argument?

and would scum not take advantage of that meta if it were available?

[cassielle]

i was strongly scumreading you at the start of the dayphase RC but it was hard to pick you over gbT or schadd_

-grey- being scum flipped my reads hardcore

[cassielle]

ahh sorry.

well, while youre here, can you bring some arguments against me so i can NOT get MLed, and so i can NOT lose this game for town?

[cassielle]

gbT: note that i said essentially the same exact thing to RC before -grey- was pegged as guilty

why didnt you scumread that one?

[cassielle]

ugh.

i dont have any arguments left to give then.

IF you are considering me, then ALSO consider schadd_ -- we both were in similar positions with grey's slot throughout the game

gbT was in a unique position wrt -grey-'s slot. gbT is the standout. this can be independently verified

thats all i have.

[cassielle]

ugh. i dont know how scum thinks well enough to help debunk this but its wrong

like, i can say that i went after gbT, schadd_ AND you even harder than i went after -grey- well before i went after -grey- and read the leadup to that -- i actively was concerned by a new townblock crystallizing, one which we now have proof would have been wrong still, which was the entire impetus of rereading -grey-'s slot as scum, because it had gotten a really easy ride

[cassielle]

but saying that probably doesnt mean anything at this point

[cassielle]

rc is really, really town, do not hammertest rc ffs

do not hammertest period even

[cassielle]

because thats a risk? a huge risk on a slot im 100% certain is town. to think of rc being town i have to see myself as scum, and seeing myself as scum is unthinkable

if youre gonna hammertest anyone hammertest a scummy slot ffs

[cassielle]

i misunderstood hammertesting my bad

[cassielle]

ok, im cool with rc having the hammer

and wrt to it not adding up lol

i thought for some reason that hammertesting was putting a slot up to hammer point and seeing if any slots jump for it, which is crazy dangerous game of chicken type stuff. idk why i thought that would ever be a good idea heh

[cassielle]

actually. no.

hammertesting is not a good idea because rask is def dead n3 short of WIFOM bs. we would need at least two trustworthy slots to do a good hammertest on d4 and we would only have one. tell me if i am heavily mistaken on how hammertesting works here

i dont think that i am

[cassielle]

sk

[cassielle]

we doomed

[cassielle]

i think that that could turn into a double test because the setup is already prepared and someone is feeling risky and scum encourages it quietly (i.e., "sure why not" and so forth). i am not comfortable with that setup because if someone gets that bug up their ass that can turn into TWO DIFFERENT KINDS of ML: scum hammering on second test, or us dragging a risky-feeling townie down for suggesting it

im not feeling it, nope

p-edit thankfully rc actualyl somehow pulled something sane out of -grey-'s mess

[cassielle]

i dont really have any useful input here. is there anything you want from me in particular rc? rask? because im getting tired myself and i cant convince myself to stay awake much longer

[cassielle]

which is...?

also obviously dont answer this, thats good for town to keep up its sleeve atm

you prob know but yknow

just in case

[cassielle]

im gonna give it a few minutes then im heading to bed

if you guys want anything from me let me know asap

[cassielle]

for me the dynamics dont work out. scum radiant might be pushing for scum -grey-, but scum -grey- i dont see pushing for scum radiant the way he did d2. its hard to pinpoint the exact reason why but it doesnt feel right. -grey-'s push on you felt sort of like the push on schadd_ did -- it was ill-defined, not well supported and somewhat out of the blue.

and if it WERE the case (you as scum) then i couldnt clear schadd_ either and id still be suspect -- and while yeah, i dont feel like i as a player can clear my own slot, having two potential scum slots i have to just throw my hands up in the air and say "coin flip?" on is NOT where i want to be in MyLo

its practically throwing the game, even

so i choose to think that my reason above (regarding -grey- not pushing on your slot the way he did if you are scum) is correct. because that narrows things down to one possible scumpartner with -grey- (gbT), where if you ARENT cleared then gbT probably isnt scum and any of my slot, your slot and schadd_ look like good lynches from gbT's perspective because a scum read on us is all coming from the same perspective

in short: combination of the team feeling unlikely, wanting the best PoE, and not being hypocritical with my logic -- if i cant see a schadd_/-grey- world then an RC/-grey- world is even less likely for roughly the same reasons, period.

[cassielle]

RC: is there any extra input i can give here? any at all?

[cassielle]

being perfectly honest, after -grey- let up on me i was determined to NOT read that slot. that was not fun for me and i didnt want to be put in a position of scumreading him and getting another face full of angry

which it seems made me misread the slot thereafter.

on a reread -- youre actually wrong, i jumped on -grey-'s wagon (he started pushing schadd_, i sorta sheeped on the basis of another reread of schadd_'s ISO). i wasnt going to qustion -grey- because i just really didnt want to jump into that can of worms (and again, ctrl-f my ISO for "sorry", every time -grey- turned my way on d2 i got scared and backed the hell off immediately).

which does make me look pretty awful, to be fair, but i stand by schadd_'s ISO looking non-town. its just that a -grey-/schadd_ scumteam makes no damn sense to me and -grey- is confscum, so... i cant support scum!schadd_

[cassielle]

in the future im just gonna scumread anyone who gets ultra aggressive when i scumread them, to prevent exactly this. its a gap i wasnt expecting and i dont think i can plug it any other way

if i scumread someone and they want to defend against it they can come at me calmly, -grey- did not and i was just relieved to not have someone shouting me down, i handle it poorly

nothing to do with his d1 scumread of me, everything to do with the tone of those posts

[cassielle]

being perfectly honest, after -grey- let up on me i was determined to NOT read that slot. that was not fun for me and i didnt want to be put in a position of scumreading him and getting another face full of angry

this seems largely in contradiction with 1817. if you've downloaded him, i should generally think he is less frustrating/saddening to deal with

nah, by the end of d2 he had stopped being frustrating and i genuinely was able to poll a mental model of him to get a rough idea of what was coming

it just ended up being backwards

[cassielle]

like this is where that happened 1334 then read 1335

actually, rereadng that little section is... interesting. i need to eat before i can go over it properly,gimme a bit

[cassielle]

gbT didnt give a solid read on -grey- throughout d2. schadd_, me, mbg (end), rc all got solid reads from gbT on d2. the only players they didnt take a 100% solid stand on were creature (who was being set up for a scumlynch from what i see) and -grey-

see 1954, 1964, 1990. compare to... 1294, 1460.

now, sure. there is 1636 -- BUT it was never gone into detail on AND it was actively dismissed by way of 1639, etc -- meaning that 1990 is false, QED. they were scumreading me and creature harder until the creature flip, dismissed -grey- in favor of me on the back of a post that was meant as a /critique/ of the slot from schadd_, etc etc.

conversely, gbT claims -Grey- was strong townreading them all game long -- but 827 (keep in mind: myself and Rask were very recent targets of -Grey- here), 1133 (note that hes saying he'll lynch gbT on the fly there), 1878 VERY weakly states gbT is a viable lynch target. gbT questions a townread thats pretty spurious and not strongly backed up all game long as if its a solid 100% "NEVER LYNCH THIS SLOT" read. and keep in mind those are the ONLY THREE TIMES I COULD FIND where -Grey- listed gbT as even an implied read -- it could be argued he went out of his way to avoid looking too hard at gbT's slot based on this

finally, check -Grey-'s d3 play wrt my slot

if he was defending a scum slot he threw the game there, im a weak lynch target from game start and he knew it and repeated this all day (until rask mentioned results), its effortless for his scumbuddy to push for my lynch to scumwin in theory. arguably he pocketed me to act as a smokescreen for scumbuddy gbT (and it worked, im a dumbass, sorry town)

i rest my case, i dont have any further supporting arguments for me as town or gbT as scum

[cassielle]

oh and ftr -- wrt gbT's d1 -grey-reads, they were dismissive-leaning-town because of GAYreen and liking -grey-'s posts. theres no -grey- scumread there. after all, if there were why would gbT sheep -grey- on d2 start?

[cassielle]

you called it slimy several times but kept your vote anywhere else. unfortunately no one pressed you for the "why" so i cant say for sure that youd have relaxed that read then like you did later when mbg brought up a -Grey- contradiction and you asked for explanation of it.

on the other hand he WAS null-ish in the one readslist you posted during d2 (well after you questioned his townread!), and you never took an outright town/scum stance on him that day -- every other slot you took one on, solidly town or solidly scum, even if you changed your mind afterward you took that stance

you took none on -Grey-

your scumread of him was either weaker than me and creature outright (meaning 1990 is an out and out lie) or you were saying you scumread two people, one of whom you voted for at least once, when you actually had a better scumread that you said nothing about

not to mention wtf happened to MBG there?

either you had more scumreads than TB and -Grey- or you didnt scumread -Grey- after all, and no matter how you take it you voted for someone you intended to flip town wrt mbg

period

p-edit: in order:
weak af, not sticking to any read, you say "oh yeah thats -grey- all the way! but its not really a tell. and i dont like him townreading me" -- its casting a tiny bit of shade and nullifying an argument brought up in favor of the slot

same thing. "no hes not confscum -- but i dont like the posts" it says nothing about your read except that it probably isnt "obvtown"

i dont see that as saying anything in particular about -grey-, its more saying that mbg's argument there is bad. also, mbg later points out that CREATURE pointed out the inconsistency, you did not, which nullifies that argument

and the last one is treating him as unlikely to be scum even though you dont like the townread he has for you, it STILL doesnt say anything about your reads.

it all adds up to "approximately null but im suspicious so maybe very light nullscum", except for the last one which says "town by PoE but scummy town"

1990 does NOT follow

[cassielle]

1323 is the post i was referring to with the relaxing of your read (what little of a read there was) ftr

[cassielle]

im with RC and schadd_

theres not really much to say with -grey- threadcrapping (admittedly in an entertaining fashion) and RC apparently got all necessary info from it so best to move to d4

i hate to admit it because of how i dislike ending days early... but yeah theres nothing coming from this. been waiting for rasks word

[cassielle]

actually -- rasks prob gonna die overnight.

so id like rasks best arguments in favor of how he views the gamestate BEFORE we hammer the obvlynch home, to make sure we have a confirmed pro-town ref-sheet -- basically, we can consult the ghost of rask if we run into doubt

i was gonna say i want RC and schadd_'s too but i realized their views of the gamestate are no-brainers, readily available. (RC suspects gbT, schadd_ is undecided and unwilling to commit to a decision at this time.) if one of them gets NKed for some silly WIFOM bs reason we have a sufficient ref sheet to work off of for now. rask is the only one were lacking info on, and plugging that gap wont hold the day up that much longer than just waiting for rask is already doing.

so rask, when you come in, give us your final view of gamestate so we can hit d4 with a confirmed town reference sheet for every slot that can be NKed without making town win by PoE a no brainer

[cassielle]

i think i disagree with schadd_'s reasoning there

...but i agree with the likely results. yes, track rc.

[cassielle]

gbT:

wrt your replies to 2266, ill let town decide there? because i feel like -- you actually feel someone is scum, youre gonna put their name and scum in the same sentence, period, its just good practice imo -- helps town pick out who is waffling on their reads and who isnt
the inconsistency pointing out thing -- creature noticed, you just picked the specific post out from what i read. keeping in mind that i was catching up the first time i read it even, the real time interaction may have felt different, but yes, thats how i saw it.
and finally -- "it means i'm scumreading him until matt flips town" is backwards, weird and wrong in all sorts of ways. i have to really beat the hell out of that sentence to get a logical meaning out of it. rephrase?

wrt 2261: implying, then. it would be a weird townread if it was hardcore, but it didnt feel hardcore, it felt ultraweak.

wrt 2262: thats just restating what i said -- you liked some -grey- posts, you liked GAYreen's posts, your d1 -grey- read was nominally town and you started off with no -grey- suspicion into d2
the sheeping bit is a misread on my end -- i was comparing your ISO to -grey-'s ISO rather than thread-digging and must have gotten the timestamps swapped while i was putting the argument together. my bad. you both voted my slot very early d1, and -grey-'s vote had more content, if it HAD been sheeping it would have been ultra suspicious. it wasnt, again, my bad.

[cassielle]

@rask:

with -grey- buddying me so to speak, its worth mentioning that i was pocketed by way of dreading another verbal showdown of the same tone/hostility as the first. i didnt want to be in that position at all, and i was dead serious about wanting to replace out.

i cannot see schadd_/-grey- for more or less the reasons you mentioned (tho if it is, scum earned that win hardcore, -grey- was hardbussing from day 1 to day 3 and it was sheer dogged luck that the hammer didnt drop on schadd_'s slot d1) and rc/-grey- looks bad for similar though not identical reasons -- they were ready to eat each other alive and their wagons werent dormant or dead when it was going on, they very well could have ended up with one of the two lynched by sudden popular opinion. thats pretty counter to a scum wincon.

i really think re-examining those slots is the wrong way to go, im certain theyre MLs

p-edit: gbT, do you see how that doesnt seem to be at all what "it means i'm scumreading him until matt flips town" says? the literal meaning (as in word-by-word breakdown) of that sentence is you scumread -grey- while voting mbg, but if mbg flips town you clear (or think of clearing??) -grey-.

in other words, diametrically opposed to what you just said

p-edit2: yes shit my bad again there sorry

that could create some confusion, yeah?

[cassielle]

EBWOP the last sentence is part of p-edit 1

im bad at words today

[cassielle]

ftr: schadd_/RC as scum makes no sense. even if one of them is scum, in that situation town lost, straight up, we'll never untangle which one it is. looking in that direction is guaranteeing a town loss, it just means that if gbT is town we were looking at one of the correct slots in LyLo when we ML someone (and we totally will ML someone with a strong townread scum vs PoE scumread town).

dont look at them. thats focus in the wrong place. eyes on the prize town

[cassielle]

like id rather be up against gbT than gbT up against RC or schadd_, straight up. at least like this i can blame my shitty play for it, not the last townies self-destructing at a pivotal moment

[cassielle]

i think a NL is a ridiculously bad idea, and should be avoided at all costs

we're losing one poss. town in favor of a slightly easier PoE, but we also lose one extra voice to sanitycheck against

[cassielle]

catch you in the postgame rask

[cassielle]

i was sheeping you on the entire mbg fiasco not gonna lie rask

if you had pulled off the mbg wagon id have jumped right off with you

but it was a DAMNED good wagon, extra good scum-chance from the posts i read, and i got some amazing reads out of it

i dont really blame you for it in context, but i DO wish you had spoken up purely in hindsight

[cassielle]

i didnt come from that site or one like it, it was a forum site

id post an example but i dont think theres one left. active site, video-games focused. that and im embarassed of everything about that site that i engaged in

my AtE was about an attitude thingy anyway, NOT about the game. -grey- could have scumread me forever and id have been fine with it.
and like, with the later stuff i was genuinely unemotional? but people read it as emotional. i was trying to do as much for town as i could at a time i was feeling like a super safe lynch. if mbg hadn't lost it id have stayed that way till end of day. not emotional, just playing for wincon (a /town/ wincon)

[cassielle]

like i was having fun on most all of d2 except like when i brought up -grey- and got "bullshit!" thrown back. i did genuinely feel like my slot was a lost cause but i wanted people to get a bug up their ass to scumhunt properly after my ML, so i was doing a lot of work on that front

try reading it that way

[cassielle]

that is the good idea

tracking rc is definitely the good idea

[cassielle]

yeah i like a fast night

[cassielle]

from where im at, gbT is the only option. RC and schadd_ arent likely to be scum, and i cannot see a world where we lynch them even if they are.

[cassielle]

lol i wake the hell up to this.

i am a ML. i am 100% a ml.

a reread of my ISO will explain precisely why i 180d on -grey-: the townblock! crystallizing! again! how many times have i repeated myself on this from d1 to the end of d2? all of them. every time someone asked why i flipped my read on someone -- because the townblock is full of scum (provably so even for my reads since -grey- was red) and the reads were crystallizing. i say that even between the reads you all find so suspicious rofl!

jfc

give me the hammer to test and it will not fall. that's not something im SERIOUSLY suggesting, because thats horribly awful townplay, what the hell were you thinking town???, but you're all 100% certain and it's a straight up town loss to hammer my slot for town. at least if you hammertest me we can prove im not scum and avoid a town loss.

do not hammertest gbT. that is endgame, scum win. im absolutely sure of it by simple PoE

[cassielle]

def overthinking it. PoE says it can only be you

there is a chance, realistically, that RC or schadd_ could be scum. but that's not worth keeping in mind, its infintessimal and as i repeatedly say, if scum is in there we lost already

but sure ill vote you VOTE: gbT

@schadd_

as for my 180 read, someone pointed out two reads of -grey- i had on d1 -- strong townlean to maybescum. i figured that was it. if it wasnt that one but the later one -- well! i townread scum, and i am not alone, more than one townie townread -grey-. mistakes happen, town doesn't know everything jfc. i have explained that one numerous times, i did not want to deal with -grey- flipping out on me again and i got too used to ignoring alignment on his posts. if you need more explanation, i have nothing. throw the game on that one mistake tho, definitely.

and on gbT, honestly, i made a bunch of arguments against that slot d3, if youd like ill bring them back. or yknow you could check my ISO since people are already doing that anyway? i dont get where you get this idea that i have somehow failed to critique gbT's slot.

[cassielle]

itd be the end of the game with a scumwin. id jump up and down screeching at you if you dropped a vote on my slot.

[cassielle]

ill subtitle it

[cassielle]

today ive barely been awake/available lol

i just a while ago got done with my big thing for the day, im here and ready to go. you just havent asked me a whole hell of a lot so i have no direction to reach for

i havent given up, i just dont know what to say because you havent told me what you want from me

p-edit: and that's a losing conclusion if you havent given me that chance to play well today yet

[cassielle]

ok, straight up

my reaction to -grey- was not the vote. it was the attitude, the mood, i felt like i was being personally attacked (even though i wasnt) and i wasnt in a great headspace to deal with it to begin with.

and my reads with -grey- are just as inconsistent as my reads with ... lets see. gbT and schadd_! who i attacked harder and got less pushback from, but im gonna let that go. that, above, that's a poor argument against my slot.

p-edit: schadd_, yeah, but if gbT's scum you throw the game doing that

[cassielle]

because i was floundering for good reads. everyone was floundering for good reads d1. if anyone says d1 was AI enough you could have pinpointed -grey- based on it alone, theyre full of it. my read changes slowed down d2. i had to change mine d3 where others did not, but that was because i townread scum, that would happen to anyone regardless of alignment in the same situation

[cassielle]

in fact, if you could have pinpointed any standout except TB d1, you are a FAR better player than i

[cassielle]

then youre a better player than me. i submit before your ultimate scumhunting authority.

point is most people couldnt do that, and the record of d1 bears this out. twice we locked in scumreads that were (in hindsight) provably wrong and locked in the townblock based on them. i dont think that waffly reads are wrong in that situation.

[cassielle]

sarcasm ofc lol

im not going to lay down and play against towns wincon here. d2 was a different story, now it is time for Serious Business -- and the business is lynching scum, not lynching weak town.

[cassielle]

than which part? the lynching business is true.

the sarcasm part was too. idk what you want me to say differently there? or why?

[cassielle]

jfc. welp gg town

[cassielle]

well you threw the game for town, unless youre scum

in which case great job!

p-edit ROFL no im not scum

[cassielle]

not like it matters, im lynched, you hammered town

changing your mind at this point is nothing more than realizing the game is thrown, because it is

i need alcohol

[cassielle]

scum earned their win. no question on my end.

[cassielle]

@mbg: i was gonna but then rasks track info! i was blown away that my best hard townread was scum and tossed the whole thing out, start from scratch. bad thing to do on d3 but i didnt know how else to make sure the reads werent contaminated with bad logic

@grey hey man, no problem. its one of those things, i was just in a bad headspace at the wrong time and it was a harder push than i was used to, way harder. and you recognized when i was serious about that, which is to your credit, 100% awesome. no hard feelings.

also, thats interesting heh. ill keep it in mind for the future :p

@aero no, thank you aero! it was a great game to play and you were kind enough to let me pre-empt the call for replacements