Newbie 1779 | Spring | Endgame

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Post Post #1025 (ISO) » Sat Mar 18, 2017 2:59 am

Post by Icy »

In post 980, mastina wrote:
In post 942, Icy wrote:You said (quite emphatically) Day 1 that RC was town, now we have a player change and they are scum....same slot, different day.
You know what also happened on Day 1? We lynched mhsmith.

You know what also happened on Day 1?
mhsmith flipped town.

You know what also happened on Day 1?
mhsmith (until he was already lynched at which point it was too late) was my strongest scumread.

What did you expect me to do after my strongest scumread flipped town?
Do nothing? Charge right in and not challenge prior assumptions of mine?

Fuck no.

My read on RadiantCowbells on D1 was more-town-than-not, and he was among my stronger townreads. He was not my strongest townread, mind you, but yes it is undeniable he was a reasonably strong townread. He was not a townread I placed absolute faith in. I never said it was impossible RadiantCowbells was scum. Quite the opposite: I said rather consistently, "I strongly think RC is probably town" (early to mid game), and then, later in the day, "I still think RadiantCowbells is more likely town than not" (a weakened read from strong-town, but still town). Never ONCE did I declare that he was lock-town. Never ONCE did I declare he was definitely town, that he was firmly town. I quite specifically acknowledged he COULD be scum.

, townreading, unspecified strength. , "strongly lean". (LEAN.) , "do not view as scum". , town-quarreling, unspecified strength. , stance of him as town, unspecified strength. , explanation of read and telling you exactly why I said "town?", not "town.". , I demanded an answer from RadiantCowbells in who he townread. , I point out a plausible reason/strategy for RadiantCowbells being scum. (Admittedly relying on me being scum but that's beside the point.) , "still likely town". (LIKELY.) , "don't think scum".

That was rather consistently my stance.

I have reevaluated it off of new evidence I have been given.

I am not calling Alisae confirmed scum at this point. Quite the opposite, I noted why it is very possible that Alisae is town. (Specifically, thinking it slightly unlikely RadiantCowbells replaces out as scum thanks to disinterest.) However, there is reason for the slot to be scum: process of elimination is rather strong with both a tracker and a BP claim, furthered by mhsmith's death. If you're within the conftown, you only need TWO locktown reads to win the game; if you're outside of the conftown, you only need ONE locktown read to win the game. (Assuming like I do that you clear DogWatch if there is not a veteran mafiate.)

Grey is my locktown read. I am still reading, to determine if Alisae is in fact the player with the highest probability of being scum. Maybe it turns out Alisae isn't. Maybe I conclude later we have the newbie-scumteam of oldwino-lemonator. Fuck, however unlikely it would theoretically be possible I reverse my stance on Grey and turn him into a scumread with Alisae instead as my locktown.

But it should be absolutely NO surprise to you that I am reevaluating a read after my prior read was proven wrong. Did you honestly expect anything else?
I'm glad your reevaluating, but you left off 255. That to me seemed like a hard town read. Was I reading that wrong?

In post 255, mastina wrote:
In post 251, RadiantCowbells wrote:Well you ought to start giving damns because the next step is for me to lynch you.
And I should be quaking in my boots about this, why?

I already think my wagon has two scum on it.

Why would I fear your L-1 vote? Because of the risk of a newbie derphammering?

Go on. Vote me. I literally give zero fucks about your stance on me. You are wrong. I don't care that you're wrong. You're not going to lynch me.
What's with the cheap townread you gave me?
It aint cheap, it's accurate. You are town. I am reading you as town. You don't like that, tough. I don't care. Because you are town, and I am town, and that's all that matters to me. I don't care about your opinion of me townreading you.
and given how hard I fooled you and others in TTH's game I would expect you to give my scumgame a little more respect.
Given how I wasn't playing that game: not really, no. I respect your scumgame about as much as I respect that of any other established veteran: it exists. It is something that is respectable. It may even be a don corelone nomination. It is not impenetrable, nor is it impossible to discern from a towngame. You are not special. You are just another player to me. Nothing less, sure, but also nothing more. And this game, you are town. It's really that simple.
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Post Post #1026 (ISO) » Sat Mar 18, 2017 3:11 am

Post by Icy »

I am troubled buy these posts from RC right after Grey hammered Smith.
In post 837, RadiantCowbells wrote:Grey is scum.

In post 838, RadiantCowbells wrote:Not quire sure who his partner is though.
In post 844, RadiantCowbells wrote:I am thinking Mastina/Grey right now too so at least we're actually on the same page.
In post 850, RadiantCowbells wrote:This is not a spite scumread. I have thought you were some form of scum since the literal beginning of the game.
And for the record I'm still reading OldWino town, and leaning Lemon town.
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Post Post #1027 (ISO) » Sat Mar 18, 2017 3:19 am

Post by Icy »

Consider this:

It could be that Dark is still around because the scum team felt pretty strongly that he wouldn't track the right person. That to me points to someone universally town read. I also think there is a chance that they shot at me to get the town to think I was on the right track (I think OW mentioned that)

If both of these are true that points the finger at RC/Dog in my mind.
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Post Post #1028 (ISO) » Sat Mar 18, 2017 3:51 am

Post by Alisae »

Icy RC is right about this stuff ;)
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Post Post #1029 (ISO) » Sat Mar 18, 2017 7:58 am

Post by Icy »

It wasn't so much what he said, it's more so when he said it. He showed no interest in wanting to lynch Grey till after he voted Smith, and Grey hammered.
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Post Post #1030 (ISO) » Sat Mar 18, 2017 9:20 am

Post by oldwino »

In post 1028, Alisae wrote:Icy RC is right about this stuff ;)
@Alisae - I just want to confirm you mean RC was right about his scum reads of Grey near the end of D1?

@ Everyone
I've been skimming and reading and skimming. Much of Mastina's analysis is too dense for me and since she is convinced I am scum, and has been since page 1, I don't think I'll change her mind even if I could follow enough of her logic to try to counter it. And Dark seems determined to sheep Mastina, so they both will just go on thinking I am scum until the truth is finally revealed.

On to battles maybe I can influence. Grey is still my strongest scum lean, but some of that may be my dislike of his play style, his over zealous antagonism toward several players, his walls of ranting, etc. etc. But I am still suspicious because of his 6-7 vote changes, not slinging mud to see 'what sticks' as Mastina characterized it, but putting up votes of players he knew were town to see if he could gather any support to lynch any of them. Except maybe for his early vote on RC, which I interpret, in my Grey-RC scum scenario, as distancing, etc. etc. of his scum buddy.

No one has responded, I don't think, to my crazy scenario of both RC and Grey replacing out because they had a scum feud overnight and couldn't agree on WHO would kill Dark (or Icy, take your pick). I spotted this feud early on and asked Grey about bad blood between them from a previous game, which he denied. I asked him how he read RC and he said he couldn't read RC on D1. Just lots of pro-con attitude from Grey towards RC which made me, and still makes me, suspicious of the pair. Alisea seems more town to me than RC did, maybe because of my read of the Grey-RC battles and interaction. Alisea seems more genuinely helpful scum hunting than RC did. RC posted a lot of one-liners with no strong reasoning. He was strongest during twilight when Smith's fate was decided. Scummy RC, I thought, stay away for most of D1 then show up to watch the lynch?

Alisae seems much more town to me than RC did, but since it's the slot that matters, I don't know. Maybe she's playing better scum than RC did, maybe BECAUSE Grey isn't around antagonizing. A fresh start for that slot.

My other scum leanings are still Mastina, although her long absence during the last part f D1 made me less suspicious of her. I don't think she'd leave her scum buddy alone that long if her buddy was a newbie, but maybe she would leave Grey alone, figuring he could handle scum's interests well enough on his own - and get her out of sight for a while. But for some reason, ethics maybe, I don't think she'd leave even Grey alone near the end of D1 if they were scum buddies. That leaves lemonator and Dog. I think I believe Dog's townslip - much better players than me believe it. So that leaves Lemon, who I've leaned town on most of the game.

For me - it's Scum Grey, partnered with almost a toss up among, but in order, Alisae (because of RC's play and interactions with Grey), then Mastina, then Lemonator.
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Post Post #1031 (ISO) » Sat Mar 18, 2017 11:26 am

Post by Alisae »

Yeah old I'll read the wall when I get home I'm just quickly checking in.
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Post Post #1032 (ISO) » Sat Mar 18, 2017 12:53 pm

Post by mastina »

[quote="In post 1001, Alisae"I see more scum motivation to jump on RC saying something that was obviously sarcastic (also let's add RC has nothing to gain from saying that statement as either alignment) then town. Considering it was still RVS, town!Grey could have started a fight with RC there to see how people responded to it and get out of RVS, I'll give him that. But I don't think this is what's happening here. He follows it up with (the answer to life, the universe, and everything) and the tone here reads fake to me. Grey keeps on saying "RC was lieing" but he's not attempting to analyze anything about it.[/quote] You're missing my point.
Grey was picking a fight with
RadiantCowbells
.
Grey was picking a fight with RADIANTCOWBELLS.
You have played many games with RC, have you not?
Let the implication of that statement sink in then.
You were saying Grey's hop-on to RadiantCowbells was easy.

I am asking you to justify how "easy hop on" and "onto RadiantCowbells" can fit together in the same sentence. RadiantCowbells. The player with a huge ego, priding himself in his nigh-immortality as both alignments, who thinks that he can easily catch scum especially with gambits, and who genuinely (regardless of whether you hold him to be a good scumhunter or not) can obvtown in games as either alignment, AND whose most deadly feature is his ability to get people to listen to him. THAT RadiantCowbells, who Grey knows from past game experience just as well as you or I would. Is who Grey decides, of ALL people, to pick a fight with. That RadiantCowbells, notorious for tunneling his targets until they are ten feet underground, is who Grey decides to deliberately engage in a 1v1 against.

So I maintain my stance on those two phrases fitting in a sentence: they don't.
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Post Post #1033 (ISO) » Sat Mar 18, 2017 1:52 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 1004, Alisae wrote:Ulti's post was pure, innocent, and genuine townposting. The fact he was flashwagoned for that is stupid.
While the wagon was in fact stupid, I feel like there's something critical you're missing about Ulti:
Ulti failed to cast an L-1 vote, but tried multiple times to do exactly that, place me towards L-1. You call Grey opportunistic, but had Ulti succeeded, what would you think then? Still an innocent vote? What differentiates Ulti's L-1 vote from Grey's vote, then?

Furthermore, and this is a large factor.
aa-dono, town, failed to respond to a prod when replaced.
JustDanceWorld, town, failed to respond to a prod when replaced.
Ulti, on the other hand:
In post 398, PenguinPower wrote:
Ulti and aa-dono are being prodded
...Was prodded, and then...
In post 425, PenguinPower wrote:
Ulti
(2): mhsmith0, aa-dono
...When there was a wagon on Ulti, WITHOUT ULTI POSTING...
In post 426, PenguinPower wrote:
Ulti has requested a replacement
...Ulti REQUESTED replacement. Not a flake. Not a peep of real-life justification for it. A by-PM replace-out, by request rather than by flake.

Ulti was pressured. And replaced out, probably in a panic. Now I give credit where credit is due: being a panicked newb is not scum-exclusive. But Ulti is far from innocent in this exchange. The panic-replace-out is actually exactly what I did in my first game on-site as scum. Under basically the exact amount of pressure Ulti was under. And we know that 2/3 of the Ulti voters were town. The ONLY possible scum voter there...is the voter who both was the FIRST on and the first OFF, in the form of Grey.
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Post Post #1034 (ISO) » Sat Mar 18, 2017 2:00 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 1009, Alisae wrote:I'm not looking for buddies atm or associatives. That'll be easier to do when we have a scumflip.
Uh-huh.

This is a very convenient excuse to overlook how few scumteams with Grey included on them are actually plausible. Namely:
Grey-lemonator is possible but you refuse the possibility off of Grey voting Ulti as opportunistic. (When Grey was the first vote, and also hopped off the wagon relatively quickly.)
Grey-DogWatch is I suppose possible but unlikely unless Grey is the type of player who likes gambits as scum. You've professed knowledge of his style; does he like gambits? Be honest here. If the answer isn't at least "maybe", then this scumteam can be thrown out right here and now.
Grey-oldwino is possible but you townread oldwino.
Grey-mastina is I suppose objectively a theoretical possibility, but mhsmith raised very good points for the sheer improbability (nigh impossibility) of this scumteam combo:
In post 847, mhsmith0 wrote:
In post 844, RadiantCowbells wrote:I am thinking Mastina/Grey right now too so at least we're actually on the same page.
I don't really think it's mastina/grey
, but that's largely due to an independent TR I have on her (if this whole ISO of hers was an intentional act as a scum IC, just pretending to play really badly, I'm going to be super upset - if it's a town IC thing, mistakes happen, but if it's intentional I just get really bothered by that).
Also I do think that Grey's "I think smith is the IC" bit largely cleared mastina if he is in fact scum; I just feel like that's the kind of derp thing that's pretty unlikely if he's buddies with her
(which, you know, was an actual substantiated read that I put energy into thinking about for the "but smith hasn't been solvey enough" crowd :igmeou: )
Basically, I would consider Grey-oldwino and Grey-lemonator. Grey-DogWatch I am looking to eliminate with luck. But these are literally it. And these are the teams you are most discarding. Your narrative simply doesn't fit the realities of the game, Alisae.
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Post Post #1035 (ISO) » Sat Mar 18, 2017 2:02 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 1015, Alisae wrote:Then I'll just do it without your support it's as easy as that.
Oh, also.
I seem to have picked up a trend: you are townreading the players who are supporting you, and you are (when you can get away with it) scumreading the players who do not.
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Post Post #1036 (ISO) » Sat Mar 18, 2017 2:10 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 1020, Alisae wrote:I DON'T AGREE WITH YOUR READS THEREFORE I AM SCUM
THAT IS THE LOGIC YOU'RE USING HERE?
A very good question! Let me bounce it back onto you!
Because again. oldwino has scumreads on Grey/me; you townread oldwino.
You apparently gained a townread on DogWatch (not one you have explained); DogWatch's only post this day phase has been a question towards me as to why I am townreading Grey, with the implication that is important.
The only townread of yours not fitting this pattern is lemonator (who, surprise surprise, is who I feel is most likely to be the newbie scum), and that's by virtue of lemonator not having
any
reads. (The one and only read lemonator has generated
the whole game
is a scumread on Darklyn...who is confirmed town. Literally iso him, look at his contributions. It's a bunch of empty statements that contain no actual content, because they are devoid of actual conclusions.)
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Post Post #1037 (ISO) » Sat Mar 18, 2017 2:18 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 1025, Icy wrote:you left off 255. That to me seemed like a hard town read. Was I reading that wrong?
Twice-over, actually.
One, I had stated I had two scumreads outside of RadiantCowbells--POE would therefore suggest all players not being scumread (including RadiantCowbells) would therefore be town. This is a POE assumption which falls apart if those scumreads cease being scumreads.

Two, even ignoring that, I specified I was reading him as town. This was true. I did not specify by how much. I thought he was town, yes. I had a townread on him, yes. But it was explicitly "I am reading you as town". An unspecified strength read. If I am hard-townreading a player, I will specify I am hard-townreading a player. I am often fond of exact wording. (Quirk of autism, quirk of being a writer, you decide. But I like to be exact in my language as often as possible, such that it is done mostly subconsciously.) I never once said I was hard-townreading RadiantCowbells, because I never was. He was a townread. He was at the beginning of the game my strongest townread, sure, yeah...but explicitly not a
hard
townread. (On a very bad day where I see most of the playerlist as scummy, 'strongest townread' could literally be "51% likely to be town" if literally everyone else is null-or-worse. On no day does "hard-townread" mean anything other than "strongly townread". I could, in a newbie game, potentially get six hard-townreads, and have even the weakest of those hard-townreads still be a strong townread.)
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Post Post #1038 (ISO) » Sat Mar 18, 2017 2:23 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 1030, oldwino wrote:I've been skimming and reading and skimming. Much of Mastina's analysis is too dense for me and since she is convinced I am scum
Apparently you really
are
skimming if that's what you think my read of you is. I would advise you go back and check again. I would normally quote the pertinent information here, but this is such a bad misunderstanding of my stances on a fundamental level that I really need to tell you to go back and read it all without skimming because that's literally the only way I can think of to tell you that you're working off of a very flawed assumption.
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Post Post #1039 (ISO) » Sat Mar 18, 2017 2:31 pm

Post by DogWatch »

VOTE: lemonater

- scummy slot (ulti)
- 948 feels fake
- mastina's latest walls have swayed me in believing it's likely alisae/lemonater
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Post Post #1040 (ISO) » Sat Mar 18, 2017 4:50 pm

Post by Alisae »

In post 1032, mastina wrote:You're missing my point.
Grey was picking a fight with RadiantCowbells.
Grey was picking a fight with RADIANTCOWBELLS.
You have played many games with RC, have you not?
Let the implication of that statement sink in then.
You were saying Grey's hop-on to RadiantCowbells was easy.
Easy as in easy to do, but yes.
And I dunno how many games I played with RC off the top of my head, but I do know Grey has played a lot of games with RC as well.
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Post Post #1041 (ISO) » Sat Mar 18, 2017 4:52 pm

Post by Alisae »

In post 1032, mastina wrote:I am asking you to justify how "easy hop on" and "onto RadiantCowbells" can fit together in the same sentence. RadiantCowbells. The player with a huge ego, priding himself in his nigh-immortality as both alignments, who thinks that he can easily catch scum especially with gambits, and who genuinely (regardless of whether you hold him to be a good scumhunter or not) can obvtown in games as either alignment, AND whose most deadly feature is his ability to get people to listen to him. THAT RadiantCowbells, who Grey knows from past game experience just as well as you or I would. Is who Grey decides, of ALL people, to pick a fight with. That RadiantCowbells, notorious for tunneling his targets until they are ten feet underground, is who Grey decides to deliberately engage in a 1v1 against.
Why are you argueing semantics here?
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Post Post #1042 (ISO) » Sat Mar 18, 2017 4:55 pm

Post by Alisae »

In post 1033, mastina wrote:Ulti failed to cast an L-1 vote, but tried multiple times to do exactly that, place me towards L-1. You call Grey opportunistic, but had Ulti succeeded, what would you think then? Still an innocent vote? What differentiates Ulti's L-1 vote from Grey's vote, then?
Yeah pretty much.
And experience is enough to differeniate it. Grey is an SE. Ulti is a newbie.
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Post Post #1043 (ISO) » Sat Mar 18, 2017 4:57 pm

Post by Darklyn »

In post 1039, DogWatch wrote:VOTE: lemonater

- scummy slot (ulti)
- 948 feels fake
- mastina's latest walls have swayed me in believing it's likely alisae/lemonater
Alisae is the first choice for today vote for him pls
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Post Post #1044 (ISO) » Sat Mar 18, 2017 4:57 pm

Post by Alisae »

In post 1033, mastina wrote:Ulti was pressured. And replaced out, probably in a panic. Now I give credit where credit is due: being a panicked newb is not scum-exclusive. But Ulti is far from innocent in this exchange. The panic-replace-out is actually exactly what I did in my first game on-site as scum. Under basically the exact amount of pressure Ulti was under. And we know that 2/3 of the Ulti voters were town. The ONLY possible scum voter there...is the voter who both was the FIRST on and the first OFF, in the form of Grey.
staaaaaawp
You're twisting things to suit your own purposes and plant doubt in the slot + this whole arguement is a reach.
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Post Post #1045 (ISO) » Sat Mar 18, 2017 5:00 pm

Post by Alisae »

In post 1034, mastina wrote:-words about pre-flip associations-
Remind me again how I'm supposed to find assoications without flips?
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Post Post #1046 (ISO) » Sat Mar 18, 2017 5:01 pm

Post by Alisae »

In post 1035, mastina wrote:I seem to have picked up a trend: you are townreading the players who are supporting you, and you are (when you can get away with it) scumreading the players who do not.
This is a shitty excuse to throw more shade at me and you know it.
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Post Post #1047 (ISO) » Sat Mar 18, 2017 5:03 pm

Post by Darklyn »

btw Alisae that Util defence is desperate, he posted like 5 times and was replaced, you should be focusing on what pieg and lemonater posted
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Post Post #1048 (ISO) » Sat Mar 18, 2017 5:07 pm

Post by Alisae »

In post 1036, mastina wrote:
In post 1020, Alisae wrote:I DON'T AGREE WITH YOUR READS THEREFORE I AM SCUM
THAT IS THE LOGIC YOU'RE USING HERE?
A very good question! Let me bounce it back onto you!
Because again. oldwino has scumreads on Grey/me; you townread oldwino.
You apparently gained a townread on DogWatch (not one you have explained); DogWatch's only post this day phase has been a question towards me as to why I am townreading Grey, with the implication that is important.
The only townread of yours not fitting this pattern is lemonator (who, surprise surprise, is who I feel is most likely to be the newbie scum), and that's by virtue of lemonator not having
any
reads. (The one and only read lemonator has generated
the whole game
is a scumread on Darklyn...who is confirmed town. Literally iso him, look at his contributions. It's a bunch of empty statements that contain no actual content, because they are devoid of actual conclusions.)
You're just assuming I'm townreading people for helping me lynch Grey or agreeing with my reads. Stop.
GTKAS
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Alisae
Alisae
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Alisae
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Posts: 47098
Joined: October 31, 2016
Location: Cali~ (PST)

Post Post #1049 (ISO) » Sat Mar 18, 2017 5:09 pm

Post by Alisae »

In post 1047, Darklyn wrote:btw Alisae that Util defence is desperate, he posted like 5 times and was replaced, you should be focusing on what pieg and lemonater posted
stop.
it's not funny anymore.
GTKAS
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