Newbie 1779 | Spring | Endgame

[ThinkBig]

Nice shades. I actually miscounted and thought I put you at L-2.

Anyway what is your case against Grey/My slot?

[Alisae]

basicly opportunism

[ThinkBig]

Can you point those out and why you think it is scum aligned opportunistic?

[ThinkBig]

You came in here and admitted the only thing you bothered to read was Grey's ISO. It seems like you were hell bent on tunneling on Grey before you even came in.

[Alisae]

The IC is required to lie to the town as scum. She should not lie about good play principles and such but lying about how a claim order would optimally be done is absolutely fair game.

Lying about theory is against IC guidelines regardless of their alignment and you damned well know this.

VOTE: RadiantCowbells

The most easiest shit scum could hop on and Grey took the bait.

Too many walls of fluff. -_-

Something needs to happen.

VOTE: -Grey-

OMG, I self-voted! How scummy is that?!

Grey does this a lot as either ailgnment but here it reads particularly fake.

VOTE: Ulti

Consider it a gut read.

Showing oppertunism

Alright, I'm comfortable with that logic.

VOTE: Darklyn

L-1

More oppertunism.

Cba: can't be asked

Actually, it's "can't be assed" (can't be bothered)

UNVOTE:

The fact that the L-1 vote and this are right next to each other bothers me.

Or, maybe you're trying to turn today into a no lynch by splitting up votes.

VOTE: mhsmith0

And the reason I've been plausibly softing will be clear enough d2.

This is most likely a scumhammer coming from Grey. Also lol at the last bit.

My experience with town!Grey is he his abrasive. He goes and hounds his scumreads, acting high and proud. He disregards other reads majority of the time as well.
Scum!Grey LOVES showing these moments of oppertunism. If he can read the room and get away with it, he will try.
Grey is scum here.

Yea I got chu.
A. I read the tone in Grey's vote as if it was serious. I see more scum motivation to jump on RC saying something that was obviously sarcastic (also let's add RC has nothing to gain from saying that statement as either alignment) then town. Considering it was still RVS, town!Grey could have started a fight with RC there to see how people responded to it and get out of RVS, I'll give him that. But I don't think this is what's happening here. He follows it up with 42 (the answer to life, the universe, and everything) and the tone here reads fake to me. Grey keeps on saying "RC was lieing" but he's not attempting to analyze anything about it.

B. I'm refering to moreso "What can Grey try to get away with." Here I read the Ulti slot as newbtown. I don't think the Ulti slot in that interaction is attempting to do anything remotely scummy. Grey isn't looking for motivation behind things here. He doesn't even attempt to do anything with that vote either.

C + D. Yeah, I get that and all, do not get me wrong. I sure as hell would unvote there, but to me I'm reading this as a rolefishy. I don't like how agreeable he is here, especially considering how postury mhsmith is being here with not understanding his thought process. If Grey was town here, I think he would have most likely pressed this a hell of a lot more.

E. I personally hate the justification for it. Part of this is mostly my experience with Grey. Another part is context and seeing where the conversation was going.

[Alisae]

You came in here and admitted the only thing you bothered to read was Grey's ISO. It seems like you were hell bent on tunneling on Grey before you even came in.

What is the reach?
You're assuming I had a pre-identified scumread on your slot and I was determined to tunnel it.
Why can't I be ISOing one of my BFFs on site to try to find out if they're town or not?

[Alisae]

If anything I joined to play with Grey.
You make it sound like I think Grey is useless, anti-town rubbish, and I hold the utlimate grudge on him to want to get him lynched in almost every game I play in with him.
Why would I even join this game with the pre-emptive goal of deathtunneling him?

[ThinkBig]

Staaaawp.
Grey is going to get townread as either alignment majority of the time. One of the things about his scumgame is A. He hates playing scum and B. Either way his game is going to be clean.

There's a contradiction here. You are saying that you are confident that Grey/my slot is scum, yet you are saying that his game is going to be clean. How do those two possibly connect?

[Alisae]

Staaaawp.
Grey is going to get townread as either alignment majority of the time. One of the things about his scumgame is A. He hates playing scum and B. Either way his game is going to be clean.

There's a contradiction here. You are saying that you are confident that Grey/my slot is scum, yet you are saying that his game is going to be clean. How do those two possibly connect?

It's called "I played with Grey enough to know if he's scum or if he's town."

[Alisae]

btw if someone is going to declare intent don't even bother.
My final reads are mastina and TB for scum.

[ThinkBig]

Alisae, if you're actually town, then you really need to pull out of your tunnel and confirmation bias. Did you learn anything from Witch Trial's Mafia? The TVT bullshit from you and dreal cost town the game. I'm not having a repeat of that here.

[Alisae]

Yeah except I TR'd dreal, if anything he SR'd me.
Except I wasn't tunneling anyone if anything I was way more agreeable with my reads.
Except I didn't replace in that game, I was in since the start.

[Alisae]

not to mention IT'S FUCKING DREALMERZ7

[ThinkBig]

Um you were death tunneling me at twilight 1 and from what I recall, you still TR'd Grey even after his god awful hammer.

[Alisae]

I DIDN'T EVEN GET A CHANCE TO POST D2

[ChrisOrmie]

@Alisae, I think the scum is in the newbie slots anyway

I have

mostly

reached this conclusion, but not all the way.

You are confirmed town for your claim.
Icy is confirmed town for Icy's claim.
I know that I am town.
I am very heavily townreading the Grey slot.
We also know that mhsmith was town.

The only possible non-newbie scum is the RadiantCowbells slot.
The only possible newbie scum are oldwino, lemonator, and DogWatch.
If you suppose the townslip from DogWatch is genuine (it's not impossible for DogWatch to fake, but incredibly unlikely unless RadiantCowbells in the pregame gave that instruction/advice to DogWatch since I don't see an all-newbie scumteam thinking of the slip and I would be

incredibly

impressed by DogWatch generating it on her own), then that leaves three slots for potential scum:
Alisae (SE), oldwino, and lemonator.

I feel we should lynch within there today. I think an Alisae townflip would firmly clear DogWatch, leaving the only possible scumteam as oldwino/lemonator. An Alisae scum flip is a little harder to determine, but...well. Lynching scum would be lynching scum, so obviously that would be something we'd want.

In fact, if you are willing to:
-Trust that I am town, and:
-Trust that Grey is town, then...
...I think this game is an auto-win with an Alisae lynch.

Alisae lynched, flips town:

1. DogWatch is confirmed as town.
   
2. Alisae is cleared via death.
   
3. Darklyn is town via claim.
   
4. Icy is town via claim.
   
5. POE indicates oldwino and lemonator are the scumteam.

Alisae lynched, flips scum:

1. DogWatch, oldwino, and lemonator are possible scum.
   
2. We have one mislynch.
   
3. We have three scumspects.
   
4. We can mislynch one time, and because there are only two possible scum after a mislynch, we win.

In fact, I think the above still works with an oldwino/lemonator lynch, so long as Alisae is lynched tomorrow, because if oldwino/lemonator are both town, Alisae/DogWatch are scum (thus, lynch Alisae tomorrow); if one of them is scum, then the other scum is either the other of them or is Alisae (thus, lynch Alisae tomorrow).

We want to avoid:
-Mislynching Grey,
-Mislynching the PRs,
-or ideally mislynching myself. (I probably need to step up my game and convince you I am town because the game is on a lockdown town win if I'm not mislynched.)
-Mislynching BOTH of oldwino/lemonator, leaving us endgamed by an Alisae/DogWatch scumteam.
-Mislynching one of oldwino/lemonator, then mislynching DogWatch, to be endgamed by an Alisae/other of the pair scumteam.
-Mislynching BOTH of Alisae/DogWatch, to be endgamed by an oldwino/lemonator scumteam.

So either today, or tomorrow, Alisae should be lynched. I did promise mhsmith I would review his notes if nothing else, and I have the outcome of the night to take into consideration, but for the time being:
VOTE: Alisae.

I really do think my effort today is best spent on convincing you NOT to lynch me and convincing you NOT to lynch Grey, because if I accomplish that, then you should be able to follow the above and understand where I am coming from in this.

First read feels good, something nagging at me but put it down to confBias as I'm suspecting Mastina at this point. Try and move on but a post or two later and I can't ignore the need to re-read. So, IF we take Mastina's word for it (HUGE IF, especially as I am reading her as scum), and IF we accept her read on Grey too... well that makes the game unloseable - if we lynch Ali and he flips town. So two assumptions, plus a hopeful mislynch, puts us in a game winning scenario. WHY IS THIS GIVEN ANY CREDENCE AT ALL?!?!?!?! FFS this is a terrible post, with terrible logic, based on terrible assumptions that require HUGE leaps of faith. Not only that but I've not gone into the fact that it only works out if you also assume that Ali flipping town somehow means that DogWatch would also be confirmed as town... that's a bigger leap of faith and nonsensical bs than the rest put together.

The very worst bit of this is that people are seeminly sheeping Mastina on this, when it could be (and does look and feel, to me) like Scum trying to get two mislynches off (Ali and possibly one other seeing as the theory would still be 'proven' at that stage), before possibly getting lynched herself. So we go from 6-2 to 3-2 if we follow the plan (ML, NK, ML)... then a NK gives Scum a perfect victory. STOP SHEEPING MASTINA. STOP GOING FOR AN INSANE PLAN. STOP BEING ANTI-TOWN.

Mastina was scummy before this, but seriously... why is nobody questioning this at all?! This is terrible logic, terrible play, and can easily hand scum the win. If anyone wants to question me on this then lets do it - but explain why I'm not right in thinking we need to assume 3 unknown slots need to be confTown without flipping for this to work. Either that or explain why I'm wrong that if Mastina is scum, how two mislynches do not hand her victory before the entire plan plays out. Get rid of confBias, re-read Mastina's ISO, look at her d1 interactions with Smith and show me where you read him as scummy and Mastina is town.

People are ignoring this and it's far too important not to. EXPLAIN WHY I'M WRONG, OR VOTE MASTINA. This game is infuriating.

TL;DR with bolded emphasis to show assumptions.

I am

very heavily townreading the Grey slot.

If you suppose

the townslip from DogWatch is genuine

I think

an Alisae townflip would firmly clear DogWatch

In fact,

if you are willing

to:
-

Trust that

I am town, and:
-

Trust that

Grey is town, then...
...I think this game is an auto-win with an Alisae lynch.

Now can we stop auto-lynching Ali based on a stupid plan that relies on far too many assumptions and her own reads (which we'd all have to share, and I certainly don't)?
If Mastina is scum then not only does she get 1 mislynch in Ali, but a second one as her plan is for Ali to flip town (actually hoping for mislynches). 2 Misylynches plus a NK = Scum Win.
Plan is literally designed for scum to win quicker than town, and only 1 assumption (Mastina is scum) rather than the load that she requires ("I think", "If you suppose"...)!
This is a Scumclaim.
UNVOTE ALISAE, VOTE MASTINA.

[mastina]

Posting here to say, probably not posting tonight: there's some white stuff on my kitten's nose. Now, a quick google tells me I should

probably

not be concerned.

Most likely, kitty litter. (After all, she has some basically permanent black stuff stuck to her fur under her chin which I assume is food dried into her fur; this wouldn't be much different.) Maybe dry skin.

Still, all the same: I want to alert my family of this and keep an eye on her until I can personally deliver the message, so...not going to post tonight even though I planned to.

Sorry.

[Icy]

Your game play is questionable. but your excuses are worse

VOTE: Mastina

[DogWatch]

what is the vote count? alisae at L-1 and mastina at L-2?

so lost in this game dammit

[PenguinPower]

Vote Count 2.06

Alisae

(4): mastina, Darklyn, Dogwatch, ThinkBig

(L-1)

ThinkBig

(2): Alisae, oldwino

mastina

(2): ChrisOrmie, Icy

Not Voting

:
With 8 alive, it's 5 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2017-03-31 13:00:00)

[DogWatch]

UNVOTE: alisae

removing pressure because i'm starting to view mastina as scummy like i did before

[DogWatch]

unsure what to do with chris.... i like his posts so far, but he's in my biggest scum slot.

[DogWatch]

whatever

VOTE: mastina

best wishes to kitty though

[oldwino]

I'm back for just a little while, hopefully back and attentive more late afternoon/evening.

I've caught up reading and have to say I like Chris's posts. Lots of effort and analysis that scum might do, but more townlike to me. Lemon and others in this slot have been weak and that was probably their biggest scum tell - not saying much, seeming like inexperienced scum not knowing what to do. Chris is playing, moreso than he'd need to if he were scum and kind of out of sight as we all debate lynching Ali or Mastina or Grey.

TB on the other hand hasn't said much. Posted, but not said anything I see of substance. What I think a
scum replacement would do, who is already under fire. And he picked a fight with Ali, bringing back memories of the early Grey/RC feud, and voting her (Ali). I think that was forced, the fight building an excuse to vote, and TB is trying for an Ali lynch. Opportunistic, as Ali would say.

So, for now, my vote stays on TB(Grey) and I'm less likely to change it to Ali than I was previously.

And I like Chris's case against Mastina, who I suspected early in D1 and still hold in high suspicion. Her logic was bad on D1 and I agree with Chris, it's lousy on D2 too. So my vote stays on TB/Grey, Mastina is next, then maybe still Ali but probably not if TB or Mastina flip scum.

Gotta leave again, but wanted to get these thoughts posted.

[PenguinPower]

.