In post 2612, zakk wrote: In post 2604, Keyser Söze wrote: In post 2585, zakk wrote: In post 2264, Ircher wrote:I claim compulsive bus driver.
I targeted RM and Srceen N1 and Creature and Momo N2.
okay i totally missed this post. this makes so much more clear now.
there's absolutely NO reason to target screenplay unless you KNEW he'd be a target, and since after RM pushing through the D1 lynch they thought they could kill two birds with one stone by hoping everyone copping / rolecopping RM would get a "scum" or "neapolitan" result from screenplay, it makes perfect sense to try to set up RM as having bussed Aris D1 for massive town cred. This also makes sense as to why they didn't kill him N1 and waited until N2.
ALSO. i think the only reason he claimed this (thereby revealing the probability of a is because he knew if anyone else had targeted him for more info (which he may have thought was likely) that he didn't want to get caught fakeclaiming, because a claim is supposed to save you, not damn you... and also, in every good lie there is a bit of truth, etc. so yeah he probably just inadvertently straight up ADMITTED there's a mole in the faction
so yea in my mind there is basically GUARANTEED a mole inside of Dauntless now.
@everyone: read this post
Can you please illustrate this one further time in bulletproof format.
It could potentially be the post that solves the game.
[This is my first game with a bus driver in it].
Yea sure.
So, first; Screenplay was an unlikely target for night actions (imo)
, whereas Radiant Moonlight should have been a frickin' LIGHTNING ROD for night actions after pushing a super fast scum lynch on Aristophanes (townies should have suspected that it was a bussing play for early town-leader cred, so he should have been investigated, tracked, protected, etc., and also, scum should have probably tried to kill him).
Yet, he not only got targeted by Dauntless (care to explain why that was, by the way?), he ALSO allegedly got targeted by the scum bus driver.
There's four possibilities here:
1. There's NOT scum in Dauntless, and Ircher told the TRUTH about bus driving Screenplay and RM.
This would be EXTREMELY weird; why would they choose to bus drive Screenplay and RM? Makes no sense whatsoever. There was no reason to target Screenplay for anything like this, unless you KNEW he needed to be switched with someone, which would require scum in Dauntless, to tip off Ircher. We can discard this outright, in favor of option 4.
2. There IS SCUM in Dauntless, and Ircher was LYING about bus driving Screenplay and RM.
This doesn't really make sense; why would he claim this? To save himself? He was going down anyway, wouldn't have helped. To try to throw shade on RM? We had already seen RM lead a lynch on Aristophanes, why would we believe him (especially after he flipped scum) if he was trying to make RM look bad? We can safely discard this scenario as well.
3. There's NOT scum in Dauntless, and Ircher was LYING about bus driving Screenplay and RM.
This could be the case. It wouldn't be too much a stretch. Scum often lie while trying not to get lynched, or before twilight. But it requires leaps of logic, such as that Ircher made up the fact that they bussed Screenplay (why would he do that? it doesn't serve any purpose, as we went over in option 2), and, of course, this option pales in comparison to the last option...
4. The OCCAM'S RAZOR option: There IS SCUM in Dauntless, and Ircher told the TRUTH about bus driving Screenplay and RM.
I think this is clearly the best option. It's the most obvious, the simplest, and it makes the most sense, especially when you think about the fact that situations change, plans change, and that we are all mafia players who must react to things. So here's how I believe it went down (creative license has been used liberally, lol):
- Whoever was scum in Dauntless found out that Screenplay was gonna be targeted.
- They were like "oh shit!" at first, then after discussing it a bit in the scum thread, they were like "wait wait wait, we all good m8, Ircher's a busdriver" and lol's abounded because they all thought they were gonna confuse the shit out of the town and send improper results about Screenplay to Dauntless.
- Then, Screenplay got lynched anyway, and they were like "SHIT MAN"... but "oh well... couldn't be avoided..." but then on the bright side, at least they still have a "mole" in the Dauntless faction, because (with conventional logic prevailing) why would any scum in the Dauntless faction allow Screenplay to be investigated? ... so, boom, town block in Dauntless, right? (or so we think).
- Shos turns results on Ircher saying he's scum. Ircher gets flash-wagoned. In the heat of the moment, he tries to save himself by doing an honest claim (in case shos wasn't being totally straightforward and it wasn't a COP result, just say, a tracker result or something, I guess) and says exactly what he did, in hopes of getting people to un-wagon a power role.
Note:
At this point, he doesn't realize he's basically blowing the cover of the Dauntless scum mole.
- Everybody's like "nahhhhh he's lying scum, lynch the bastard" and we write off what he says as scum flailing and lying and trying to confuse things.
- We ignore what he said for long enough that we forget about it... and never realize what it actually means... until now.
- zakk uncharacteristically eats his breakfast... and suddenly has super brain powers and realizes all this shit, and is super confident about it.
And now we're up to speed. I think.