Large Normal 204: BooneyToonz III - Calling All Cryptids!END

[FourTrouble]

VOTE: Transcend

[FourTrouble]

We should lynch Transcend.

[FourTrouble]

PMysterious feels town.

[FourTrouble]

I take back what I said about PM earlier.

[FourTrouble]

Albert, found any scum yet?

[FourTrouble]

I picked FourTrouble years ago, forgot why now.

[FourTrouble]

even in a game where you are obligated to lie a quarter of the time?

No need to ever lie.

[FourTrouble]

Fourtrouble, why should we lynch transcend?

Voting mod-confirmed town is scummy. It's similar to self-voting but much worse, much more pro-scum, because while a self-vote might lead to a meaningful wagon on yourself, voting mod-confirmed town leads to nothing, because mod-confirmed town isn't ever getting lynched. There's no possibility of deriving anything meaningful from Transcend's vote and that itself is scummy, it obscures his motives.

[FourTrouble]

Town of salem had an innocent child role and I said, hey lets lynch the IC for lulz

That warrants a mod-kill.

[FourTrouble]

PMysterious feels town.

I take back what I said about PM earlier.

You need more words on these

I thought PM's initial comment on the confirmation felt town. My response was similar ("wow, quick confirmation, too bad we didn't get the confirmation after more posting, after people took positions"). The rest of PM's posts changed my read. His posts are awkward, and over-qualifying his responses with shit like "honestly," which never sits well with me.

[FourTrouble]

But is it enough to jump on him for? Especially since it was the first vote of the day (and likely a troll vote). Seems kinda forced.

What's forced about it? He voted mod-confirmed town. Even if it's "troll," it's pro-scum, for the reasons I've already mentioned.

[FourTrouble]

Egg's probably town.

[FourTrouble]

VOTE: Crush

[FourTrouble]

Because troll votes don't serve any purpose. No one would ever lynch a confirmed town, it's not pro-scum because it leads to nothing, his vote doesn't benefit scum in any way. I would say it's actually more pro-town because it evokes interactions like the one we're having, and that's all D1 is about.

This doesn't answer my question. I articulated my reasons. You disagree with them. Disagreement doesn't make a vote "forced."

[FourTrouble]

Quoi?

If you're asking why, because he's painting me as scummy despite having obviously-legitimate (i.e. non-scummy) reasons to vote you. He's assuming you're town in ways that don't square with the game while subtly looking for a mislynch (on me) for reasons that also don't square with the game.

[FourTrouble]

@Transcend - what do you think of PM?

[FourTrouble]

Pm is prob town

Why?

[FourTrouble]

Transcend sounds like a righteous wagon

Why?

[FourTrouble]

I don't see it in Crush. I don't understand where the votes are coming from and my early gut read on him says town.

What about him says town?

[FourTrouble]

I feel it in my bones

Why?

[FourTrouble]

Lynching transcend is like the easiest wagon
In addition, it's probably a joke vote? I think any player would realize voting a mod confirmed town is completely pointless. Considering it was RVS and the first post in the game, I don't think anything a player posts at that point in the game would have a motive

The ease of a wagon has little to do with whether someone is scum. But the fact that you'd focus on a wagon's ease as opposed to the player's alignment, that's concerning.

Everyone has a motive for their posts, including RVS posts. Townies typically want to get out of RVS as quickly as they can, while scum don't really care how long RVS lasts, since they're just trying to avoid getting caught.

[FourTrouble]

Lapsa, crush's attitude towards transcend seems like someone who is thinking critically. He seems to genuinely be trying to determine transcend's alignment. And his conclusion doesn't seem like one that scum would push the way he is.

Where do you see him thinking critically about Transcend? The way I read it, Crush's posts assume Transcend is town and work from there.

[FourTrouble]

In my opinion it does. If scum have the opportunity to take an easy wagon, with solid reasoning they probably would. Meanwhile town would, or rather should, critically look and analyze everyone's posts, even if there's an easier lynch target. And I think it was obvious based on my other posts what I think on transcend (that he's null)
However, I don't like his wagon, which therefore is giving me a nulltown read (albeit very thin)

If scum have the opportunity to take an easy wagon with solid reasoning on town, sure. But that assumes the person is town, something scum do but not town. If town think someone is scum, regardless of whether it's an easy wagon (and maybe precisely because it's easy and solid), they'll vote that person as quickly as scum would (and maybe quicker if the player is in fact scum). My point is that the ease of a wagon doesn't tell you much about the alignments the wagoners unless you have a clear read on the player (and you've been pretty clear that you've got Transcend as null, which means the ease of the wagon shouldn't be entering your analysis).

[FourTrouble]

@WhyMafia - why'd you say my initial townread on PM was weird?

[FourTrouble]

@WhyMafia - what do you think of Gamma?

[FourTrouble]

@four_trouble how come?

What's your question?

[FourTrouble]

@four_trouble how come you townread PM that quickly?

His reaction to the IC mirrored mine. I thought the confirmation would have been more useful later in the game after people took positions, and PM's post hinted at a similar reaction. It obviously wasn't a solid read, since I retracted it soon after.

[FourTrouble]

@WhyMafia - what do you think of Gamma?

Scummy

Why?

I'm trying to sort him, getting hints of both town and scum.

[FourTrouble]

@WhyMafia - if you're talking about easy wagons, Gamma's wagon built pretty quick on shaky grounds. What do you think of the players voting him?

[FourTrouble]

Looking through Gamma, he starts off town then gets scummier:

I had to go on hiatus for like two months
I've officially won and lost games as Town and mafia since my return

I get hints of town from this. It's neutral towards his skills. Scum tend to downplay.

Lame entrance. Feels a bit forced.
VOTE: platinum

This felt town. He's not joining an "easy" wagon. It feels like he's genuinely looking for scum, sees a dude enter the game who isn't contributing, so he votes that dude.

Why are you asking me what's forced about it? Fifth Amendment bitch!
I was happy to start what seemed like an exciting game.

Excitement to start a game is typically more town than scum. But the "fifth amendment" thing throws me off. Feels like he's trying to hard to seem like he don't give any fucks.

Then these two posts have hints of scum:

Yes, of course I take my word seriously, pisskop. I'm a rather serious guy when it counts.

As for my name. Let's see, I started out with Mysterio, as in Rey Mysterio (from pro wrestling), but then I replaced Rey with P (the first letter of my first and last name), and instead of Mysterio, I added in a "us". So, that's how I got PMysterious. Had that nickname for almost 8 years now, to be perfectly honest.

wish you had separate chat with gamma so you could fluff all day long

Were you not IC I'd have your ass for this. Is there not the possibility we are scummates?

Were you not IC I'd have your ass for this. Is there not the possibility we are scummates?

are you trying to say that my role could be an obstacle for you playing town efficiently?

I mean that was a scummy post. That assumes we're not mafia with daychat.

I don't get what he' doing. There's no scumhunting. Continuous trolling from a defensive posture. Dunno if it's his playstyle or what. Probably would need to look into that meta he pointed at earlier to get a better read. I'm not seeing anything solid enough for the growing consensus on his alignment. Would be great if someone explained.

[FourTrouble]

@pisskop - why you so convinced Gamma's scum?

[FourTrouble]

Oh, shit, got pisskop confused with Transcend. Your avatars had similar colors.

[FourTrouble]

okay wait why do we have someone this close to lynch this early day 1

More importantly, what do you think of Gamma's alignment?

[FourTrouble]

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

What made you go from null to scum on Gamma?

[FourTrouble]

You know, one thing I always hated about the players on mafiascum is too many of 'em seem to care more about sounding cool than actually winning games.

[FourTrouble]

@Vifam - strongest scumread is Crush but I need to reevaluate. Gonna reread soon.

@Ginn - you're missing the point. Lots of people have personal philosophies. They shouldn't have a place in mafia. Your approach in particular makes winning (as town) much more difficult than it needs to be.

[FourTrouble]

Theta's probably second strongest scumread. Plat third.

[FourTrouble]

@Lapsa - what do you think of Theta?

[FourTrouble]

lynching transcend seems dumb for what was essentially a joke.

egg gives me townfeels at this point but idk theres not that much info yet

PMysterious seemed too literal when the game started, obviously pisskop has been scum before but does that lie matter or was it a joke that was blown out of proportion. but then later i think PM did some pretty good analysis on gamma so idk

I like WM explanation of transcend's meme vote (232). that makes sense to me, even though i think it was a dumb joke in the first place.

I think overall the lazer focus/L-4 on gamma is a bit fast, too fast for a wagon imo. my top scum reads are crush for avoiding voting and gin for being weird about scum reads but its still v early

I don't agree with everything in this post, but I like it for a town post. Not afraid to take solid stances.

I had the opposite reaction. Positions aren't strong. Reads on Egg and PM are qualified with "idk." And mostly regurgitates safe positions that others have articulated.

[FourTrouble]

@Lore - what happened to your read on Mutton?

[FourTrouble]

@Lore - thoughts on Crush/Theta?

[FourTrouble]

I never voted Lapsa. That's an error.

Theta's posts are insanely awkward. If he's town, I'd be very surprised.

[FourTrouble]

@Lore - in 356 you say Crush is your strongest scumread, then in 365 you say he's town. What changed between those 9 posts?

[FourTrouble]

@Lore - what's your read on Gamma?

[FourTrouble]

What's your fascination with Theta? She's barely posted. Hardly anything to form an opinion on. What do you think is insanely awkward about her 4 posts?

Her language is very halting. I get the sense she's scared to post, scared to fuck up.

Then look at 291. The words "okay wait," followed by her question, express concern. But there's no attempt to weigh in. Feels like she's pretending to care about Gamma's lynch. Contrived emotion, surrounded by a lots of nothingness.

[FourTrouble]

I dunno how anyone could get to this point in the game and not townread me.

[FourTrouble]

@Ginn - nobody asked you to push a lynch. You've been asked questions about your reads. In my case, I didn't understand the read, so I was hoping to get your insights. I was also trying to read you, to sort your alignment. And the best way to sort your alignment is to understand your perspective on the game. But instead, you ignored my question, not because you missed it, but because you thought ignoring me was somehow pro-town.

So, it's clear you don't want to work with me, or with anyone else... you'd rather work alone. And maybe that's how you've always played. But it's also suboptimal. You're missing the forest for the trees because, in effect, you're setting a precedent that lets scum follow your lead (i.e. if you don't have to explain your reads, or answer questions, or work with anyone, then neither do scum), which makes it more difficult to identify scum (and if identified, to collectively lynch them). Now, I could get into more detail about what you're doing wrong but I don't feel like launching into an extensive mafia lesson in the middle of a game. You'll play as you do and we'll have to adapt. In 7 days, you'll imagine yourself "breaking" the game. And the game might indeed "break" because of your play but I doubt it'll be in the way you imagine.

[FourTrouble]

@Albert - what're your thoughts on Gamma?

[FourTrouble]

@Ginn - don't see any problem with what ABR's doing. Someones playing pro-scum (you) and he's pushing a lynch there.

[FourTrouble]

@Ginn - why'd you ignore my question?

[FourTrouble]

@Ginn - why'd you ignore my question?

The question about feeling it in my bones?

Yes, obviously.

Do you want to be townread?

[FourTrouble]

but FourT, I ask for real, because you're under the false assumption that I won't produce or play content, that gives ABR the green light to tunnel with no actual reason being stated?

I never said you wouldn't play. Stop putting words in my mouth.

If you're playing how you are, I can't fault someone for tunneling you. That's part of why your "personal philosophy" makes this game more difficult than need be.

[FourTrouble]

@Transcend - why'd you say Ginn was obvtown?

[FourTrouble]

but FourT, I ask for real, because you're under the false assumption that I won't produce or play content, that gives ABR the green light to tunnel with no actual reason being stated?

I never said you wouldn't play. Stop putting words in my mouth.

If you're playing how you are, I can't fault someone for tunneling you. That's part of why your "personal philosophy" makes this game more difficult than need be.

Okay so in your eyes, what am I doing?

Saying stuff you don't mean. Ignoring questions. Not posting substantive content for 7 days, after which you'll purportedly "break" the game.

[FourTrouble]

Why do you essentially agree on votes on me but choose not to support that wagon?

I said your play is pro-scum. But that doesn't mean you're scum. Townies do pro-scum shit. And towns lose games. You've made yourself incredibly difficult to read (that's part of why you're playing pro-scum), so I don't know. You've said you play this way every game. I'll probably check your meta to confirm. I'm also waiting to see how your play changes in 7 days. Meanwhile, I'm also trying to get through to you and hopefully sort your alignment that way. I've not settled yet.

[FourTrouble]

I disagree that Ginn's been overdefensive in a scummy way.

[FourTrouble]

@Egg - what do you think of this Tchill guy?

[FourTrouble]

Why argue so violently about votes on you if you know you're town? Since scum usually does that wouldn't that just cause a lot of confusion for town?

There's like this little tick, idk it's like someone sets off a switch and I just pounce. Psychology wise, I think it's because I can't believe someone would scum read and my ego rushes in to try and find out what is up.

I dunno, it's just how I am and I get angry a lot, trying to turn new leaf to playing a lot more relaxed because this is a text based game on the internet but I haven't quite reached the point where I can be at peace when people scum read me yet.

The cerebral, over-analytical turnaround. How surprising is this? The angry hulk achieved self-awareness in 1 page. Anybody want to see how this movie ends? Buy more Ginngie votes to find out!

lol that's some hardcore confbias...

[FourTrouble]

@Ginn - what do you think about my read on Theta?

[FourTrouble]

Ginn, can you link me your recent games as scum?

[FourTrouble]

Ginn's probably town.

[FourTrouble]

I like Texcat.

Why?

[FourTrouble]

I like Texcat.

Why?

391 mirrored my exact thoughts when I read it.

So what's town about those thoughts?

[FourTrouble]

I like Tex too but for a different reason.

[FourTrouble]

I liked Texcat's vote on Penguin. 184 felt mechanical. Cat's vote followed immediately. Don't think it's something she'd have done as scum.

[FourTrouble]

The more I see from Theta, the more I'd like to lynch there.

[FourTrouble]

I like Texcat.

Why?

391 mirrored my exact thoughts when I read it.

So what's town about those thoughts?

Well I personally know that mine come from town, so why wouldn't I associate similar thoughts with similar alignment?

Very shallow thinking.

[FourTrouble]

We're not lynching Lapsa.

[FourTrouble]

Tex, what do you think about Theta now that I've explained the read?

[FourTrouble]

Tex, what do you think about Theta now that I've explained the read?

There's still not a lot to go on. You could be right, but I think that "uh wait" is just part of Theta's style. She seems to have 1 completed game where she was town and at a quick glance, I see a lot of the same sort of posting. Newbie 1788
But clearly it would help to see more from Theta.

The "uh wait" language isn't the problem, it's the surrounding context.

I skimmed the newbie game; Theta's play looks completely different than here.

[FourTrouble]

In fact, that newbie game confirms my scumread if anything.

[FourTrouble]

Egg, who are your scumreads/townreads at this point?

[FourTrouble]

FourTrouble is lean scum

Why?

[FourTrouble]

Crush, why do you scumread Tchill? Also, why do you townread Lore?

[FourTrouble]

@Egg - couple questions.

Why's ABR/Mutton town?

Why is Theta more town than Tex, PM, or Transcend?

Why's Piss scum?

Why's WhyMafia scum?

[FourTrouble]

@Crush - do you think scum would have missed the Lapsa confirmation?

[FourTrouble]

@Crush - what's towny about 112?

[FourTrouble]

I have to admit Lore was my lightest of townreads but I chose to include Lore in my list because there were more than enough players who didn't contribute anything I liked at all.

You said your townreads weren't in any order. Why?

[FourTrouble]

@Crush - so can you put your reads in a meaningful order?

[FourTrouble]

Anyone here know the difference between town/scum ABR?

[FourTrouble]

I can't remember if mafia daytalk is standard on mafiascum - if it is, Tchill's probably town. No point to feign ignorance that long.

[FourTrouble]

@Lore - any townreads?

[FourTrouble]

@FourTrouble, You were rather forceful earlier in saying that votes on Lapsa were pro-scum. And hardly said anything about the recent votes. Why the change?

The votes are pro-scum. That hasn't changed.

I'm unsure what it means in this context. I've never seen so many people vote mod-confirmed town. I'm not worried about Tchill's vote; as I said, his vote was more lazy than anything. I'm still thinking on the others.

[FourTrouble]

@Tex - can you give us an update on your reads? Is Penguin the only person you find scummy?

[FourTrouble]

VOTE: PenguinPower

[FourTrouble]

I love naked voting too!

You approve the vote?

[FourTrouble]

btw I read two of Ginn's games as scum, surprisingly strong play. Readable, but much better than I imagined.

[FourTrouble]

@Tchill - my early scumreads are the same people you're scumreading... how's that compute?

[FourTrouble]

I just said they needed more attention. Never listed my scum reads. I'm not going to scum read Theta for not being active but Theta should get pressure because of it.

So, you don't scumread Crush? And you didn't follow my vote on Transcend at the start of the game?

[FourTrouble]

I voted Crush. I scum read Crush.

Alright. Let's say you grouped Crush, Massive, and Theta together, right after you voted Crush, but your reasons were different. Crush, because he's scum. Massive, because he's scummy enough. And Theta, because she hasn't posted much. If that's right, why Theta instead of all the other less active players?

[FourTrouble]

Crush.

When you voted, did you know I was also voting Crush?

[FourTrouble]

I certainly still find Penguin scummy. We actually have quite a few empty iso's and I feel certain that there is some scum there. I think Penguin; I guess you think Theta. But scum could easily be Vifam or Platinum. I'd like to lynch into that pool of 4, but it wouldn't tell us much and so is probably not the best lynch on Day1.
I will probably move my vote to Lore or Why, both of whom I am leaning scum on. I agree that WhyMafia seems to be trying to blend in, but that could just be nervous town play. And so am leaning towards Lore, but am holding out for better drinks.
I could potentially vote Gin or TChill who land just the scum side of null to me.

Could you summarize your reads for us, FourT?

By the way, I'm not ignoring this. Diving into some meta on a few of my nulls before I summarize. For now, I'll say strong townreads on you and Egg, not as strong reads on everyone else (except Theta, who is scum and who I'd like to lynch and probably will lynch as soon as she posts enough to convince people she's scum).

[FourTrouble]

@Penguin - what's your read on Egg?

[FourTrouble]

VOTE: Theta

[FourTrouble]

It'd be cool if people helped build the wagon on Theta. I know some folks don't see what I'm seeing, so I'll take a stab at explaining. She's barely posted but there's more than enough to scumread. It comes down to this. Theta shows up once-in-a-while to make a helpful-sounding observation, to appear invested, but her play is entirely passive. She hasn't offered any substantive analysis, nothing original or insightful. Her posts don't show any desire to scumhunt. And her emotions don't square with her play.

In more detail, these are the problems:

uh wait

with 21 alive it should be 11 to lynch

unless there is an extra vote floating around

oh yeah rvs

VOTE: pisskop
for reasons

You are correct. Updated the Vote Count.

I bolded some of the stuff that concerns me. I already mentioned the overly-hesitant language (e.g. "uh wait"). But when you look at this, there's a few other nuances. Look where Theta's focus is: The number of votes to lynch. Then look at the "oh yeah rvs" language. It suggests RVS (i.e. scumhunting) is secondary, an after-thought. Feels like Theta's trying to appear helpful while offering nothing substantive. Her focus isn't on townie things.

I could imagine scum planning things out at the start of D1, thinking to themselves, "okay, how many votes to lynch, 11, okay, so if we have X numbers, we'll need this many townies to coordinate a mislynch, and oh yeah, I forgot it's RVS, I better put down a vote so that people don't suspect me," or something along those lines. But I can't imagine townies thinking, "okay, how many votes do we need to lynch, 11, okay, and oh yeah, I forgot it's RVS, I better put down a random vote." So I'm getting scum even from this first post.

i am not sure if the current posting habits are good or bad so uh
to whoever asked what my reasons for voting pisskop were
it was rvs

Two things I don't like about this post. First, it's passive. Responds to a question while contributing nothing. And second, it's lazy in a way that shows no interest in scumhunting. If you're town, you'd want to know who is asking you questions about pisskop, because you'd be interested in that person's alignment. As scum, you don't care who asks you the question, because you already know the alignments. It's a subtle distinction but it shows two very different relationships to the various players' alignments.

okay wait why do we have someone this close to lynch this early day 1

As I said before, this post is the ultimate hedge. It expresses concern over Gamma's lynch but doesn't do anything about it. It's incredibly passive. And, again, it's one of those posts designed to appear invested while contributing nothing. The passivity doesn't square with the emotion. Concern prompts action. It prompts a position ("don't lynch Gamma, he's town"). But we get none of that.

Also, Theta's focused (yet again) on the lynch, on how close we are to it. Her thinking is oriented toward the number of votes we need to lynch. Which, as I've explained, is the sort of thing scum tend to focus more than town.

thought i already said my read on gamma
okay so that post does not look like a read but okay i thought 291 would be enough for people to figure out my read

i do not have much meta experience with gamma other than a currently active game so uh
yeah i do not know
gut tells me town though

The post is defensive. Theta's focus is on defending her previous post. She says Gamma''s town, says it's implied by her previous post, but then says, "I dunno why, it's gut." Feels contrived. Again, she's overly-hesitant ("I do not have much meta experience with gamma," "so uh").

massive
albert b rampage
why are you voting a mod-confirmed townie

lapsa
you do realize spoilers are a thing right
things which can prevent overflowing quote pyramids

fourtroble
texchat
i am a little more focused on other games right now
have not had the time to dedicate to this game and do it justice

Theta's last post. She jumps on the shiniest thing in sight (two votes on Lapsa). And that's the most Theta's done this entire game. I don't see any hint of an interest in finding the scum. I get the sense Theta's struggling to develop (read: contrive) scumreads, so when she sees votes on Lapsa, she jumps on that quick.

Then she offers a stylistic suggestion to Lapsa. Again, she's being "helpful" while doing/contributing nothing. And she defends herself against me (even though she's under virtually no pressure), while preemptively justifying her low engagement. She's doing everything the scum do. She's passive, reactive to shiny objects, and defensive. She pops in every now-and-then to offer a helpful suggestion or to seem invested, yet hasn't shown any actual interest in who the scum are.

I know some of you will think I'm grasping at straws but what I'm saying is legit, you just need to broaden how you think about scumhunting. The scum don't go around declaring themselves to the world. They reveal themselves in with small cracks into their perspective. And that's what you see in Theta's posts, small windows into how she's thinking about the game, and the evidence points to a scum perspective. And it doesn't matter that she's only posted a couple times, her posts are devoid of any thought process that could be called townie.

[FourTrouble]

Why, what exactly convinced you?

[FourTrouble]

The only thing I disagree with is the doubtcast language
I have a tendency to do that regardless of alignment

Take a look at your games. You probably do it more as scum.

[FourTrouble]

Lore has hints of town. Theta doesn't.

[FourTrouble]

Lore has hints of town. Theta doesn't.

Funny enough that would almost make me vote Lore first

That's not a bad instinct. I'm trying to get something going on Theta but I'm not opposed to a competing wagon on Lore.

[FourTrouble]

You shouldn't decide who to lynch based on how much information it gives you.

[FourTrouble]

Lexa's wall confirms her as town.

[FourTrouble]

Lexa's wall confirms her as town.

I don't particularly object but why exactly?

Shows a sort of in-depth thinking that scum don't just do.

[FourTrouble]

I have no idea what Lapsa was thinking, nor do I care too much. I've mostly been skipping Lapsa's posts.

[FourTrouble]

I already know Lapsa's alignment. Been focusing my energy on people I'm unsure about.

[FourTrouble]

You should listen to what he has to say since you know he's not deceiving

He's also the guy that's been voting you most of the game. Strange that you'd urge anyone to listen to him.

[FourTrouble]

@Crush - I quoted Theta's ISO, all but one post, so I'm not sure exactly what you're waiting for on that read.

[FourTrouble]

I'd like to see more votes on Theta.

[FourTrouble]

Everyone is towny this game

Not Theta. Not by a long shot.

[FourTrouble]

I mean, c'mon, look at Theta's last post!

[FourTrouble]

Lore, join me on Theta!

[FourTrouble]

Lexa's town. There's no argument to be made otherwise.

[FourTrouble]

Transcend, what's your read on Theta?

[FourTrouble]

No opinion

What're your thoughts on my analysis re: Theta?

[FourTrouble]

We shouldn't lynch Tchill today. For starters, if he were scum, he'd probably have realized that Lapsa was confirmed. Or if not, he'd probably have been told she was confirmed by his partners. It's possible he contrived it, or that he's careless/oblivious scum, but both scenarios are unlikely as compared with assuming he's lazy/clueless town.

I also think his vote for Theta means we should lynch Theta first. The reason: If Tchill's scum, I don't think he'd have changed his mind on Theta so fluidly, unless Theta's scum too. Consider Tchill's behavior from each perspective:

If Tchill's scum but Theta town, he'd have known my Theta case was wrong and so he'd probably have doubled-down on his budding FourTrouble scumread rather than supporting my wagon.

If both Tchill and Theta are scum, Tchill would've known I was right about Theta, interpreted the case as stronger than it'd have appeared to a clueless townie, and so voted Theta while also townreading me (i.e. exactly what he did).

So we should lynch Theta before we lynch Tchill.

[FourTrouble]

Yet another reason to lynch Theta: The weight of associative information points to Theta.

I know that some folks think associative information isn't helpful on D1 (i.e. pre-flip) but that's a general guideline, not an absolute rule. In the right circumstances, it's strong evidence of alignment, and this is one of those cases. The logic underlying the tell is straightforward: if X is scum, Y must be scum too. That alone doesn't tell you anything. It's a single connection so it's too weak to have any significance without flips. But, if you extend the logic to, if X, or W, or Z, or Q is scum, Y must be scum too, it increases the likelihood that Y is in fact scum, because the likelihood that there's scum among X/W/Z/Q is greater than the likelihood that there's scum among solely X.

That's what I see happening with Theta. If Tchill's scum, Theta's probably scum too. If WhyMafia's scum, Theta's probably scum too. If Transcend's scum, Theta's probably scum too. I'm not going to say there's a connection for every player but there's enough of them to increase the likelihood that Theta's scum.

[FourTrouble]

Again, I can picture no circumstance under which you have ever been scum on this site. Why does being scum necessitate not realizing Lapsa is confirmed town? In that case everyone who ever voted for Lapsa would be conftown. Why do you believe his partners would pass along that information? WHEN do you believe his partners would have passed that information? Do you have inside knowledge of scum daytalk? Why is careless-town more likely than careless-scum?

I've been scum on this site and others.

I'm weighing probabilities. I don't know if scum have daytalk but they usually do, so it's probable they do. If scum have daytalk, it's probable they discussed Lapsa's confirmation. If Tchill's scum, it's less likely he'd have been as careless as he's been, because scum usually aren't as careless as townies. You weigh the probabilities. They suggest Tchill's town.

[FourTrouble]

So a lot lead to Theta; does Theta lead to anyone?

I dunno. I haven't looked into that yet.

[FourTrouble]

Lore, why were you townreading Texcat?

[FourTrouble]

Theta slot is shit

You should help me build this wagon!

[FourTrouble]

Lapsa, why do you think Lore's town?

[FourTrouble]

I'm weighing probabilities. I don't know if scum have daytalk but they usually do, so it's probable they do. If scum have daytalk, it's probable they discussed Lapsa's confirmation. If Tchill's scum, it's less likely he'd have been as careless as he's been, because scum usually aren't as careless as townies. You weigh the probabilities. They suggest Tchill's town.

No they do not. His actions may suggest he's not paying attention, but they do not suggest he (or scum in general) are less careless in that role. You are conflating your expectations with the MECHANICS of this game which are not proven, and you are using them to clear / suggest clearing someone based on them.

If you want to play that way then fine, but do not expect the rest of us to follow you when that's Not How It Works.

You're missing the big-picture. Mafia's a game of probabilities. I'm evaluating those probabilities. And I don't need to know anything about the mechanics of this game to evaluate the probability of a mechanic. That analysis is straightforward. It's more likely than not that mafia have daytalk, because mafia have daytalk more often than not, on this site and others, and especially in large games. It's more likely than not that Tchill's degree of careless comes from town, because that degree of carelessness is rarely exhibited by scum yet common among townies. It's not difficult to see why: As town, it's easy to skim a game and say things impulsively without thinking them through, because town rarely worry about how suspicious they appear until they actually come under pressure. But as scum, we tend to become more self-conscious about what we're posting, regardless of how much pressure we're under, because we focus more on avoiding suspicion in the first place, and that leads to less carelessness. It's a probability, so you could say it's 51/49 that Tchill is town, it's a weak probability, but it's still better than nothing.

You're the one voting Tchill. Why? From what I can tell, it's because he voted Lapsa. In your words, he "forgot" the confirmation. Why would scum be more likely to forget a confirmation than town? What do scum stand to gain from that?

I explained why Theta's likely scum if Tchill's scum. If you think Tchill's scum, why not vote Theta first?

[FourTrouble]

fourtrouble i find it surprising your principle reason for wanting my lynch is because of associatives with other people implying that if any of them are scum i am scum
but that is not a good thing to say since that could be scum faking an association with me
the real questions you should be answering are these
if i flip scum who is scum and who is town because of that
and when i flip town who is scum and who is town because of that

1. That's not the "principle reason" I'm pushing your lynch.

2. You're right that scum "could" be "faking an association." But the issue is what's probable.

[FourTrouble]

So a lot lead to Theta; does Theta lead to anyone?

I dunno. I haven't looked into that yet.

Major scumpoints for this. He's bending over backwards with associatives here.

That's untrue. I pointed out the associatives as corroborating evidence. I've defended their relevance from attack but in no way could you call that "bending over backwards." I'm not looking at who Theta leads to because it's irrelevant to Theta's alignment.

[FourTrouble]

I sort of agree idea that it won't yield much information

We shouldn't lynch based on how much information it'll give us. You win games by lynching the scum, not by having a few more pieces of information.

If information is your only concern with Theta, you're effectively telling the scum to post as little as possible, since that'd limit how much information their flips give. It's a bad precedent to set and one that doesn't win games. That said, if you want to know what information we'd get from Theta, there's more than it appears. It's clear that people are avoiding the lynch, and that they're pushing folks like Tchill/Lore/Transcend over Theta. There's a lot of information to gain from that.

[FourTrouble]

Gamma's defending Theta. Massive's defending Theta. There's lots of information to look at re: Theta's flip.

[FourTrouble]

FourTrouble is using terribly constructed logic to justify a vote on Theta
Pre-flip associations + lynching the wrong end of the association = most likely scum-led wagon

Look at 912. That's why I'm lynching Theta. The associatives are corroborating evidence (i.e. meaningless by themselves, but in the context of Theta's other behaviors, evidence that increases Theta's likelihood to be scum).

[FourTrouble]

And, no, I'm not lynching the "wrong end of the association." That's nonsense. The logic I've outlined points to lynching Theta first, not the other way around.

[FourTrouble]

Why? You keep saying "if X is scum Theta is". Anyone of those you actually BELIEVE is scum? If so vote those first. If not you're fucking mafia and need to be lynched.

I explained this in 1128. The logic I'm using isn't about a single association, it's about aggregating the probability from multiple associatives that all point at Theta.

[FourTrouble]

It's not that he "forgot" the confirmation. It's that he saw an easy wagon on someone he had zero reason to scumread, and hopped onto it for no reason other than to perpetuate the wagon. THAT is how scum vote. They don't have actual scumreads so they just have to go along with the flow, and he saw that quick succession of votes and decided to go along with it.

Or maybe he thought Lapsa was scummy. Tchill isn't the only person to "go along with the flow," so why are you singling him out?

[FourTrouble]

I don't even think I've mentioned Theta, so please quote this?

You implied it by saying nothing about Theta while attacking my defense of Tchill, a defense that was tied to my wagon on Theta.

[FourTrouble]

This feels like nitpicking but.... why did you switch from referring to town as "town" and "they" to referring to scum as "scum" and "we"?

I like that you caught this. I don't have an answer to your question.

I recall using "we" in both sentences at first, then changing the first sentence because I didn't want to imply that Massive was town. I forgot about the second sentence. You could say I was concerned about implying that Massive was town but careless about implying he was scum.

[FourTrouble]

You guys are focusing too much on the associations. That's not why I'm lynching Theta. The associations are corroborating evidence. They increase my confidence, and they provide reason to lynch Theta over other suspects, assuming all else is equal (which it's not, but I can understand why some of you might think that).

[FourTrouble]

Let me explain how I'm using associatives, because apparently this sort of analysis is novel to ya'll. The weight of associative information points to Theta:

1. If Tchill is scum, so is Theta.

2. If Massive is scum, so is Theta.

3. If Transcend is scum, so is Theta.

4. If WhyMafia is scum, so is Theta.

5. If Gamma is scum, so is Theta.

6. If Texcat is scum, so is Theta.

7. If Ginn is scum, so is Theta.

If you don't understand one of these associations, I'd be happy to explain. To be clear, these associations don't tell us anything about the alignment of anyone but Theta. They don't tell you anything about the alignment of Tchill, Massive, Transcend, WhyMafia, Gamma, Texcat, or Ginn. But every association points to Theta. And that's telling, because it's likely there's scum among Tchill, Massive, Transcend, WhyMafia, Gamma, Texcat, and Ginn, at least one scum among them, so therefore it's likely that Theta is scum. This pattern -- and it's a scummy pattern -- shows up in most games. It almost always points to scum. I've seen it time and time again. I'm not using a single association to set up a lynching chain. I'm analyzing aggregate associatives to corroborate (not ground) my read on Theta.

If Theta is scum, we'll have to figure out who Theta's partners are. I haven't thought about who yet. Lapsa (and a few others) didn't want to lynch Theta because they were worried Theta's flip wouldn't give us information. In contrast, I'm confident that Theta's flip will give us valuable information, because there's lots of associative information to work with. I haven't sorted through the information yet. That's all I'm saying.

[FourTrouble]

Lore's nitpicking in 1172 is town as fuck.

[FourTrouble]

>_>

I mean you've been playing since 2012 so you got a metric ton more games than me, but when have you actually used that; and if so successfully?

Not only have I used it successfully but most of the best townies I've seen or played with use it as well. Who do you consider the best townies on mafiascum? I'd bet they've used this type of analysis, or would support it if they haven't. Again, it's not something you'd ground your reads in, but it's strong corroborating evidence for a read you've already developed in other ways.

[FourTrouble]

Are you just listing the people who don't like your case on Theta? Doesn't that say more about your case than it does about Theta or those on your list?

No. It includes the two people who followed my reasoning immediately (Tchill, WhyMafia). It also includes people who aren't taking a position on Theta or are subtly defending (e.g. Massive's implied defense of Theta by attacking my defense of Tchill).

[FourTrouble]

I've been asking more questions than I usually do because I've had more questions than usual. I'd say that's partly the result of getting acclimated to the meta here (it's changed since my last games here, in 2013/2014/2015), and partly the result of unexplained reads and overall laziness from lots of players.

[FourTrouble]

You didn't set up a lynching chain, that's correct, you just made a lynching spider web where if any of those flip scum you'll pile drive Theta into the ground.

I'm driving Theta to the ground regardless of the flips.

[FourTrouble]

Do you have a game where I can see it played out successfully?

I'll find one later. But, rather than ask whether you've seen it used successfully, take a look at any game of your choosing. I'd bet with 75/25 odds that the pattern's there. The scum tend to have more associations pointing their way than townies.

[FourTrouble]

Where'd you guys hear that associative information has no place on D1?

[FourTrouble]

Using associations is like using meta, there's a right way to do it and a wrong way. Most people get it wrong. I've already explained exactly how I'm using it and why it increases the likelihood the player is scum.

[FourTrouble]

Alright, associations 101.

On D1, it's useful as corroborating evidence. Corroborating evidence is evidence that supports a read that's already supported by some initial evidence. That means you don't form reads on the basis of associations; you use associations to refine reads.

There's different ways to use associations. There's the type that leads to chains (e.g. "if X is scum, Y is too; let's lynch X, thus setting up a chain on Y"). Then there's the type that doesn't (e.g. "if X is scum, Y is too; let's lynch Y; if Y flips scum, we don't know anything about X"). The former has no value on D1. The latter is useful when evaluated in the aggregate; in other words, associations are useful when many associations point to one player (e.g. "if any player among X, Y, Z, W, Q, R, U is scum, then B is scum too"). The reason aggregate associations work is because they approximate the value of a flip in a meaningful way.

As an example, consider: If you're going to lynch between five equally-scummy players -- X, Y, Z, W, and Q -- and if there's an aggregate association (i.e. "if either of X, Y, Z, and W is scum, then Q is too"), you lynch Q. In other words, the aggregate association corroborates the read on Q over the other reads. It can't serve as the foundation for a read on Q but refines it through corroboration.

[FourTrouble]

Also, how many of those associatives have to be town before Theta is town? If it's not a two-way street, then I'm super confused.

They could all be town and Theta still scum.

[FourTrouble]

What's interesting is that I said the word "association" and suddenly a bunch of players started saying I was setting up chains when I did no such thing. They're not taking the time to understand what I'm saying, just seeing buzzwords and making assumptions.

[FourTrouble]

Transcend is scum

Yeah, maybe. I've been getting that vibe too. Need to reread him.

[FourTrouble]

The problem is that you're trying to use corroborative evidence to prove something that's OPINION. It's your interpretation of Theta's playstyle. If you can prove that Theta has a different style when scum or town, then you need to do that. Otherwise you're just "proving" something that only you believe. Posting style is NAI. Activity is NAI.

All reads are opinions. That doesn't mean corroborating evidence isn't valuable.

[FourTrouble]

I disagree with pisskop's approach. On that basis, I'd also be willing to bet my accuracy on D1 is significantly better than pisskop's.

[FourTrouble]

Alright, Theta's recent posting:

alright i am going to try a new and novel thing for me and give my read on a person every post since i seem cursed to never produce an actual complete reads list

starting off until i have gotten through everyone once
i will be going in order of the player list

pisskop=null-town
i am still voting you but i will try and rectify that soon as i find a better vote
honestly i think i voted you for your self-vote at the start of the game but looking through the rest of your iso you actually look pretty good
not perfect
i mean i never got why gamma is scum on meta reasons and you never posted links to games with examples and comparisons which would be extremely helpful
but you do look pretty town

and yes i will compile these all into a single post after i have gotten through everyone

Going through players in the "order of the player list" is scummy as fuck. The read on piss is blah.

Everyone is towny this game

Not Theta. Not by a long shot.

wow look at how i died in both of my games so far

here is a hint
i was mislynched for being scummy in both

Alright. Referring to your own meta isn't telling either way. It's not a town-tell.

did i just break my read-every-post rule the post after i made it
f---

transcend=town-null
i do not like the short posts but you do seem to be game solving
also why do so many of you seem to be self-voting i really do not get that

Looks contrived. Transcend hasn't done shit.

definitely going to start back-stocking these reads and probably try and form them now so i can make short responses
and i should probably also start constantly updating them for when i finish all of you once
which is when this self-imposed restriction will really start to shine

muttonchopmagic=town
not entirely sure whether the posting restriction would be town or not
or whether that is a posting restriction or just how you play
but i do actually like a lot of your posts and either way the rhyming is fun and kind of refreshing to see in this game

I don't see how Theta gets town on Mutton based on her analysis. It's weird that Transcend leads null for game-solving while Mutton gets town for rhyming.

fourtrouble i find it surprising your principle reason for wanting my lynch is because of associatives with other people implying that if any of them are scum i am scum
but that is not a good thing to say since that could be scum faking an association with me
the real questions you should be answering are these
if i flip scum who is scum and who is town because of that
and when i flip town who is scum and who is town because of that

also you are tunneled which is never a good sign
and anyone scum reading me because of my number of posts should look at the other 2 or 3 slots with low post counts as well

someone asked me where transcend was game-solving
look at 458 696 852 and 990
then tell me what you think

ginngie=null-town
on the one hand i actually have a gut feeling ginngie is town
and there is evidence to support that in her iso
in the form of meta and getting other people to talk
i do not have much else to reason that ginngie is town though
which is why my read is null-town instead of town

She mischaracterizes what I'm saying. Gives terrible explanation for her analysis on Transcend. Nothing on Ginn but gut.

i think by defending me he means pushing anyone except me
there is tunneling like gamma is doing where he will listen to other people
and then there is tunneling like fourtrouble is doing and bashing anyone who does not agree with him

penguinpower=null-scum
hey my first scum read
although honestly it is on a lurker
you have pretty much only been voting and pushing one person the entire game which i do not like
even though i have also only voted a single person through the game you have kept pushing transcend
saying you will change your mind
and then voting transcend again

and honestly this is why i read transcend as town-null instead of a flat out null
i think he would be a mislynch because of penguinpowers push on him

p-edit
i did not notice that at first but that kind of confirms what i have been starting to think
VOTE: fourtrouble
get caught by scum-slip scum

She mischaracterizes me again. Says I'm bashing anyone who disagrees with me (that's untrue). Joins the budding wagon on me without looking into my posts with more depth. This, in the same post where Theta announces her "first scumread" on Penguin, whose posting Theta admits looks like hers.

I still don't see any town in Theta's posts.

[FourTrouble]

On day one, never lynch for preflips. Justify a scumread on them and then we lynch along a graph of scumminess to infogain.

You realize that "infogain" is the equivalent of using associations?

[FourTrouble]

@Townies

Theta's listing reads in the order of the player list, which suggests she's reading ISOs, not the game. Think about what that means for Theta's alignment.

[FourTrouble]

Theta said this game was a backburner game.

Where?

[FourTrouble]

@Gamma, Ginn, Massive, Piss & Transcend:

What's your read on Theta? Don't tell me nothing, she's posted more than enough to read now.

[FourTrouble]

null scum

Explain more.

[FourTrouble]

Not sure but I expect him to deliver more content soon rather than keep excusing himself

This isn't helpful. If you had to take a position on Theta, town or scum, based on what you know, what would you say?

[FourTrouble]

first of all i am an alternate account

If you have meta you'd like to share of recent scum games, I'll take a look.

[FourTrouble]

Piss, I want to know what you think of the content that Theta's produced, not a general read based on inactivity.

[FourTrouble]

my read on gamma was both gut and my thoughts of him in another game
however as gamma has not flipped in that game i am reluctant to bring any more information up

This suggests Theta's scum here. To make a meaningful comparison between Gamma's alignment in this game and another game, Theta would have to know Gamma's alignment in at least one of the games. She didn't know Gamma's alignment in the other game because he hadn't flipped. So, she knows his alignment here.

[FourTrouble]

my read on gamma was both gut and my thoughts of him in another game
however as gamma has not flipped in that game i am reluctant to bring any more information up

This suggests Theta's scum here. To make a meaningful comparison between Gamma's alignment in this game and another game, Theta would have to know Gamma's alignment in at least one of the games. She didn't know Gamma's alignment in the other game because he hadn't flipped. So, she knows his alignment here.

thats a bit of a stretch, it could just also be that since gamma hasn't flipped in the other game she doesnt want to say what she DOES know about that game. She could be an investigator, a teammate (mason or mafia or whatever) or have some other way of knowing that she doesnt want to reveal because the game is ongoing and thems the rules.

Yes, I don't want to break rules, but you should feel free to look at Theta's games for insight.

[FourTrouble]

Theta opened the door to this analysis in post 930. We don't have to talk about it expressly to use it.

[FourTrouble]

A good part of your "case" on Theta was that this was all elaborately planned by the daytalking scum. Do you feel like that is still the case? That Theta is carrying out some highly-skilled devious scheme?

That wasn't ever part of my case.

[FourTrouble]

IE, why would daytalking scum help set scum-Tchill on the straight and narrow regarding Lapsa, but daytalking scum would still let Theta wander around giving off all these scum tells?

The former is a discrete issue that scum likely would have mentioned -- is Lapsa confirmed? -- whereas the latter isn't a question that scum could answer, it's simply a reflection of a player's skill.

[FourTrouble]

Lexa, join me on Theta. Lore's probably town.

[FourTrouble]

Mutton, why Massive and Tchill? Also, vote Theta!

[FourTrouble]

FourTrubs, sell me on scum!theta vs bad!theta

Let's talk about it. I've said why I think Theta's scum. Why are you thinking she's just bad?

[FourTrouble]

Alright, Lexa. Theta's exhibited a subtle pattern of suspicious behavior. I've outlined the behaviors, and you understand them. I'm convinced the pattern is scummy because I've read Theta's other games so I understand Theta's normal levels of badness.

Go read Theta's games. Read the ongoing game. Or skim it. Get a sense for her play. You'll notice that she's less passive than here; her reads have more depth, her questions more bite. She was mislynched (Theta told the truth about that) but she didn't mention the townreads. Yep, lots of players townread Theta. They said things about her. She wasn't a ball of nothingness like here. She was a player that people talked about. She was a player that had hints of town. And, yes, she didn't speak as hesitantly as she initially did here (note that she's changed her tone since I pointed it out, which is like unconsciously acknowledging that it's a scumtell).

But if that's not enough, consider the Gamma comparison. Theta compared Gamma's behavior in this game with Gamma's behavior in another game. To compare that behavior, Theta must've known Gamma's alignment in at least one of the games. Which game? It must've been this one because Gamma hasn't flipped in the other game. And you know what that means. It means Theta's scum here, regardless of her skill, because this isn't the sort of tell that reflects on her skill, it's a straight-up slip.

[FourTrouble]

ABR's probably scum. He's typically more motivated as town to do things.

[FourTrouble]

Everyone is different on this. Some people want to control the game as scum while others will try to coast. Some people want to solve the game and lead lynches as town while others let people do it for them and just try to pick the right side of a fight. And I disagree that everyone is more self conscious as scum. I'm always self conscious lol.

I agree that everyone's different but there's common patterns. Tchill's forgetfulness/carelessness isn't scummy; if anything, it hints of town. I agree that Tchill's voting patterns are scummy, but it's difficult to evaluate without flips. I don't like how quickly his vote keeps shifting and I especially don't like how he jumped off Theta as soon as another viable wagon came along.

I think most players are self-conscious to some extent. My point is that folks tend to be more self-conscious as scum. It's a matter of degree. It doesn't necessarily show - competent scum hide it better - but I think most players feel it.

[FourTrouble]

ABR's probably scum. He's typically more motivated as town to do things.

???

What don't you get? ABR's lazily tunneling me instead of doing things. He's lurking. He's passive. There's no conviction in his voice.

As scum, ABR tends to have less motivation, tends to lurk more, tends to replace out more often, and tends to be less crazy/confrontational. His latest post was underwhelming in precisely that way.

[FourTrouble]

Please point me to games you've shared with him.

I don't think I've shared one with him.

[FourTrouble]

I'm still waiting for Ginn to break the game.

[FourTrouble]

It's not really a policy but an act of love from my side.
I doubt I'll catch up 57 pages on day1 so a tldr would be appreciated.

Take a look at 804 and 912. That should get you started on thinking about the game.

[FourTrouble]

That's not a tldr... but I'll work on giving those 2 posts a read.

It's 2 posts from 1400. But sure, tldr - Lexa's town, Theta's scum.

[FourTrouble]

I sure hope Lexa is town because 804 is a good post and not because it has a lot in it.

That post confirms Lexa, and, yes, it's not because it has a lot in it.

[FourTrouble]

912 didnt convince me, and yes you were pulling at straws. Your entire case is how someone would act / speak face to face in that kind if situation. This is done behind a monitor so the Uh well shit is NAI.
WhyMafia on the other hand showed some opportunity to just go with the flow there.

The reasoning had a lot more to do with Theta's overall passivity, along with what Theta's focusing on, than her word choice. Any thoughts on that?

[FourTrouble]

It depends on what they are like in other games? Let me check.

Yes, please do. I'd like your thoughts on them.

[FourTrouble]

It depends on what they are like in other games? Let me check.

Yes, please do. I'd like your thoughts on them.

Sadly the only game I can comment on is

forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=71316

Although the posts start like this game, Theta gets pretty confident pretty quickly in that game. Now this could be just a difference from Newbie to large but most players are more confident on town because they believe what they are looking for.
As stated Theta's second post in that game is "uh am I Voting" so it shows that kind of attitude is a personality trait to an extent. However, you barely see the passive play and more of a controlling lead play to a level.

I'm not going to put someone as Scum for that reason alone as it could be from the size of the game to even having an important town role. I would like to know Theta's view on what has happened in the game so far though.

I looked at that game. Her play is different. She's more active. Her posts focus on reading alignments. There's a clear thought process underlying her reads. Not so here. Look at her recent posts (they're not cited in 912). Look at how her reads compare with the way she developed them in that newbie game.

There's another game to look at, too. You'll find it. I can't comment on that one. But you should look at it.

[FourTrouble]

Please point me to games you've shared with him.

I don't think I've shared one with him.

I am SUPER curious where your ABR meta comes from then.

I've never shared a game with Theta or Ginn either. And yet I've miraculously said things about their meta. Just imagine I'm psychic.

[FourTrouble]

Lynching Theta now has the added benefit of saving the mod from having to find us a replacement.

[FourTrouble]

Crush- Town. Like me in a lot of ways. I love that he didn't vote for Gamma despite seeing him as Scum, but rather just ask a few questions before trying to cast the vote. That is definitely something Scum would not do in the slightest. Just wish he would post more when he can (which is a fault I have too).

You love that he didn't vote Gamma despite reading him as scum? What's town about that?

[FourTrouble]

I'm down to lynch PM if Theta's not happening.

[FourTrouble]

I agree that Penguin's scummy.

[FourTrouble]

I found this sequence of posts scummy:

VOTE: Transcend

I also don't agree with the Transcend votes. I mean I at least understand where those are coming from. It's "OMG HE VOTED THE IC DIE", but really he was just trying to be funny which happens in RVS from either town or scum. I'd get it if the issue was his reaction to the votes or something like that, but people are...oversimplifying or would it be overcomplicating it? It's like people think he expected to get a lynch or had some kind of ulterior motive. I guess it's overthinking. He made a joke and that's all.

Egg is Transcends scumbuddy.

184 isn't how townies think about the game. It's mechanical. This is what I see: "Transcend's scum; Egg's defending Transcend; therefore Egg is Transcend's buddy."

[FourTrouble]

I'm not sure why scum-Penguin would sit on this Transcend wagon (and push it!) for the same IC-voting stuff from the very beginning. Someone tell me how that serves scum's win condition.

It depends on Transcend's alignment:

If Transcend's town, it's a mislynch. If you're asking why the reasoning sucks, it's because contriving scumreads on town isn't easy.

If Transcend's scum, it's to distance. If Transcend's his buddy, Penguin's distancing with reasoning that won't get Transcend lynched, hence shitty reasoning.

[FourTrouble]

This to me is just the normal hyperbolic over-the-top response that I see from modern Mafiascum players. Trying to make a case out of just this is never going to hold water because I bet at least three of the people you hope to get on this wagon have done this exact thing in their last three games.

The response isn't "normal hyperbolic over-the-top." It's thoughtless, mechanical, and unrealistic, because at that point in the game Egg was by far the most townie player in the game. I doubt Penguin's reads are this thoughtless, mechanical, and unrealistic as town.

You're answering "why would scum-Penguin vote Transcend" and not "why would he sit there and push the wagon, on the weakest of reasons, in most of his admittedly very few posts, with the likelihood that it goes absolutely nowhere, when he would be better served by being flexible with his vote and changing to a wagon that might go someplace."

Why are you interpreting this as a town-tell?

[FourTrouble]

Tchill seems to be a non-starter today so I'm looking at the other wagons, if anyone wants to point me towards specifics.

What're your thoughts on PM?

[FourTrouble]

Theta was definitely town, and willing to contribute whenever he can.

How is Theta "definitely" town?

[FourTrouble]

Definitely may not be the best word, but contribution is key in a game of Mafia, and Theta showed a lot of that. Had he stayed, I think he'd be really good at keeping contributions up.

I don't follow what you're saying. You read through Theta's posts, right? Where'd Theta contribute? How's Theta contributing more than your null reads? Why are Theta's contributions townie?

[FourTrouble]

Massive, have you made any attempts to sort Mutton?

[FourTrouble]

Transcend- Null. I haven't played with Trans, but there very well could be a big difference in this style compared to his previous style (from the game that was linked).

PenguinPower- Null. Lurking and full of fluff (very coincidental). This also means there is barely anything that can be used against this Penguin. Definitely not enough fire "power" to see him as scum, or town.

Lore- Null. Ever since the vote count was updated with him near the top, she hasn't said anything, despite being active for 3 days straight. However, she's back now, so I hope to see a lot more of Town out of her than anything.

massive- Null. Has some really strong posts, but follows it up with some posts containing fluff, or useless things.

Gamma Emerald- Null/Scum (I'm saying this because of what was said earlier.)

Tchill13- Null/Town. I see the massive amount of posts, and I understand his point of view rather clearly.

texcat- Null. I can't get a good read out of someone who doesn't post much.

Albert B. Rampage- Null/Scum. Very lurky, and a lot of what is said is fluff.

Egg- Null. Started out strong, but lately started showing less and less signs of activity (and a lot less quality).

Crush- Town. Like me in a lot of ways. I love that he didn't vote for Gamma despite seeing him as Scum, but rather just ask a few questions before trying to cast the vote. That is definitely something Scum would not do in the slightest. Just wish he would post more when he can (which is a fault I have too).

I don't see how you read Theta as more town than your nulls, especially Egg/Lore, since both have made significantly more "contribution" than Theta. Explain, please.

I also don't see how you read Tchill as null/town and Crush town. Both reads are unrealistic.

[FourTrouble]

It's throwaway. You and I both agree it's throwaway, we're just seeing different reasons for it. You see it as being purposefully done in a hope to sway someone's opinion. I see it as a junk comment made on a junk read. And it's NAI, not a town tell. Which is why I ask why you think it's scummy, because I don't see it as anything to even include in a read.

I didn't say the vote on Transcend was scummy. My point is that it's consistent with a scum perspective. Penguin's scumtell is his mechanical response to Egg.

[FourTrouble]

Massive, have you looked at Tchill's newbie game?

[FourTrouble]

It's throwaway. You and I both agree it's throwaway, we're just seeing different reasons for it. You see it as being purposefully done in a hope to sway someone's opinion. I see it as a junk comment made on a junk read. And it's NAI, not a town tell. Which is why I ask why you think it's scummy, because I don't see it as anything to even include in a read.

I didn't say the vote on Transcend was scummy. My point is that it's consistent with a scum perspective. Penguin's scumtell is his mechanical response to Egg.

And my point is that it's not. Town are just as likely to make that statement. You read it as "mechanical" as in it's forced or purposefully contrived. I read it as banter. I see way more examples of the latter in today's players than the former. Let me put it to you this way: Do you see any other examples in Penguin's postings that would indicate he is a scum with a well-thought-out scum gameplan?

Massive, have you looked at Tchill's newbie game?

I'm not really a "read other games" kinda guy. What would you hope I would gain from this?

Re: Penguin - I'm not saying he's playing with a "well-thought-out scum gameplan" - to the contrary, I'm saying he's playing a "not-thinking-things-through scum game."

Re: Tchill - since he's your top scumread, I'm curious what you'd say about his play there.

[FourTrouble]

If people aren't thinking their actions through, it's impossible to believe there's a specific motive behind it.

You're missing the forest for the trees. The issue isn't whether there's a motive behind Penguin's response to Egg. The issue is whether the response comes from town or scum. It likely comes from scum because it's mechanical/thoughtless. Townies have some sort of thought process for their reads; scum don't. So, the absence of thought is a scum-tell.

[FourTrouble]

I'll take another look at Tchill.

[FourTrouble]

Massive, if Tchill's scum, who do you think the others are? Let's assume there's 5 of 'em for analysis-sake.

[FourTrouble]

Alright, Massive. This isn't an argument, just trying to develop consensus about something. You're not the first player I've played with who focuses on motives to the exclusion of other evidence, and all I can say is, you gotta break out that box sometime, take a look at the bigger picture. There's two things that distinguish town from scum: an informed perspective, and a different win condition. You look at motives as evidence of a different win condition. But you look at a player's thought process for evidence of an informed perspective. And the reigning meta won't ever change that, because it's impossible for townies not to have a thought process if they're trying to sort alignments. The sorting of alignments creates thoughts. So no matter the meta townies who try sorting alignments will have a thought process. Maybe it's shitty but there's something there. In contrast, the scum don't have a thought process because they're informed, they already know all the alignments, so they're not sorting alignments. Competent scum contrive thoughts but even then they're still contrived and therefore readable if you know what you're looking for.

Penguin's response to Egg looks fake in that it doesn't reflect an underlying interest in Egg's alignment. At most, it reflects an interest in forcing a scumread on Transcend. And that's scummy, regardless of whatever motives you ascribe to Penguin, because it shows that Penguin's reading the game from an informed perspective.

[FourTrouble]

So Ginngie talk to me about 161. This looks town, like, I can't see even bad scum wanting to take on Gamma based on things that seem so NAI they could make up an episode of That's So Mafiascum. They'd be putting their neck out against someone who they already know is possibly going to have "extreme" or "jerkish" reactions. Why does scum-PMysterious make this post?

How do you square 161 with the rest of PM's posts?

[FourTrouble]

At the moment, my list of scums is Theta, Penguin, and PM. Still working out who the others are.

[FourTrouble]

Ginn, can you clarify what you're talking about re: PM's townread on Gamma? What're the specific posts from PM that are giving you scum?

[FourTrouble]

Real quick: It's anti-town, and current Mafiascum protocol is to differentiate that from scummy. Town players play in anti-town ways all the time, whether it's out of boredom, spite, willful trolling, ignorance, or clumsiness. You say "Penguin's response to Egg can't come from town" and I tell you I can give you a dozen examples of town doing That Exact Thing if you want to wait for them. Heck I would even be willing to try to limit myself to people in this game who have done it and who aren't standing up and saying "oh yeah I've done that as town" because I bet pisskop and Transcend AT LEAST have done it. Maybe even Ginngie.

You're going back to "motives" when you call it "anti-town." I get it, that's how you read games, you don't give any weight to the informed/uninformed distinction between town/scum. But that doesn't mean it's not a legitimate source of analysis. From your perspective, what's Penguin's alignment?