Crazy idea: Two PR's are lying out of the five.In post 2419, Ryker wrote:Fuck, I have to do a lot more analysis. I need to see if I buy 5 PRs. I don't think I do. I'll double check myself later
Mini Normal 1911 | Penguin Mafia Redux | Endgame
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Day 1 Highlights:
Stalled
Mulch wagoned early day 1, Transcend, Zulfy wagoned,
Agent Sparkles and Zulfy wagons at end of day
Gamma puts AS at L1, Ryker puts Zulfy at L1
Transcend hops off AS scumread to hammer Zulfy in a forced manner
Zulfy lynched
Day 2 Highlights
Fire Scream wagoned
Lalight claims cop without any votes (but support from Ryker/Ran)
Transced vouches that Lalight is innocent with a soft, Tammy and Mulch soft
Agent Sparkles shot by Ranmaru
Fire Scream lynched
Day 3 Highlights
Mass Claim
Mulch claims VT first
Mulch votes Tammy for her target dying
Transcend claims guilty without saying who it is
Mulch asks questions about teams and who I trust between himself and transcend
Lalight votes Transcends guilty
We finish massclaim-
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Scum team:
Transcend + Lalight + Mulch.
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They are suspicious by play and by claims. Transcend has crumbs that are not convincing, and are past D1. It's possible his mates could have role copped myself or someone else to have an idea of what to crumb. Transcend didn't commit to Agent Sparkles, his main scumread of D1. He made an awkward switch to Zulfy. D2, he makes a VCA and tries to use the fact Agent Sparkles is scum and uses that to kill Firescream before having Agent Sparkles scum flip in hand. It turns out, both were town. He has a 'meh' stance on Gamma all game but when I bring up things that may turn his read to Gamma town he never considers it or speaks to me to reconsider it, he simply keeps him at meh. I note the non-engagement, and the apathetic play. Yet I don't find it to be suspicious.
Lalight, has scum intent in his play as I have already outlined in my 1642. Most importantly his entrance is telling. His tone changes between D1 and D2 are also telling. I noted that in D2, he had the same tone as he did in the scum game he has given me. Another major concern is he claimed cop very early without pressure, most likely to seem town rather to gain reactions + a wagon. I would lynch him today if the Transcend/Gamma situation wasn't here. Yet, I want him dead. Eventually, I don't care if he is cop. He must die. He admits to playing scummy as a method of playing PR's. I don't totally agree with that. I don't trust his slot, I want it dead in the water.
Mulch I have explained as the one to be my least confident scum read, yet he is still suspicious. I mention his very early post discrediting ryker when he didn't even scum read him, is suspicious because there was no town motivation to post that other than toshadea player as he blames others of doing to him. I also find it majorly concerning that he had not done a full reads list but instead has been doing them 1 by 1 or 2 by 2. It would give him a chance to not give a stance on everyone, and he could come out with a stance out of no where on Transcend or Marshy. His reaction to the mass claim seemed like a soft, and then he claims VT which doesn't make sense. He can read, so there was no purpose to ask about mass claim. (He was like 'uh... right ok... I had a claim but ok...' is what it sounded like). I find his questioning telling, such as asking about who I'd trust between him and Transcend if Transcend gave him a guilty. I also agree with Ryker that his play this phase was bad, doesn't seem to be like a townie who is being cautious and wants to win the game. I also felt he wasn't really trying to sort Tammy but really just condemn her for missing her action.-
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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On Claims:
Now on claims. I believe that it is possible we don't have a cop or gunsmith. I would expect scum to have the odd/even modifiers, though. Consider that Agent Sparkles flipped neighbor, which is an investigative role. I am a 1-shot vig. I would find it to be reasonable to have something to balance against the vig, which makes sense of being the universal back-up. I don't actually disbelieve tammy here, I just wish she didn't actually claim UB outright, but I do know she loves neighbor. Even so, if this is correct, then we can assume the UB + Vig may be legit. There's no protective in sight. I don't think there would be a cop and a gunsmith, which are two investigative alongside a neighbor. Ask yourselves if Tammy isn't UB, how would there be a role to balance my role? I don't think the gunsmith or cop would balance against them. Gunsmith seems like it would make sense alongside a vig becausea vig has a gunbut yet Transcend's crumbs are vague and don't actually mention anything about gunsmith. Everyone else is VT, it seems. I think that's it. I think Transcend and Lalight are both fake claiming, yes I know that's crazy. Notice Lalight's entrance to D3, was still suspicious, even when he is outed. I would expect a town cop to actually act with more bravado and energy after being outed, but I see none of that here. There is no town motivation there.-
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Even though I see connections from you [Ryker] that make me doubt you, I still think of Lalight's play TODAY and it's still suspicious. I was just thinking 'maybe it should be just a 1v1 between Ryker and Lalight tomorrow if we lynch scum today' but then I just keep thinking that Lalight is so suspicious even today and is riding on that claim.He must die.-
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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I already told you my answer to that. We have Titus here, so I'll be able to read her slot. Low odds does not equal = absolute. If Gamma is scum, I'll agree that Tammy is scum along with him.In post 2534, Mulch wrote:Ran I dont have time to do a full Iso showcase of me but let me ask you: do you ACTUALLY THINK TAMMY picked MARSHY , the one person coincidentally that died? Its mindblowing how you can believe that-
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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If we lynch wrong today, nk (barring some hidden protective)In post 2536, Mulch wrote: WHAT do scum have to gain for going for the win right now. Nothing. If Transcend is scum, WHAT is his motivation for doing this? I can't understand it
3 v 3
town loses-
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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It's not. Sometimes life is priority. Her replace out doesn't invalidate her play.In post 2552, Transcend wrote:i feel it woul be extremely despicable for her to leave on that note.-
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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I know that sometimes a replace out can seem tactical and I have called out replace outs for being so (and have seen scum doing that) yet, we can't know for sure, and we shouldn't let it taint our reads on that slot. We have plenty of content to read Tammy with if we ignore the replace out. I'm not going to factor the replace out.-
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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This is the opposite of Mulch's argument that her targeting Marshy was such low odds that we should be pushing her harder since, probability but it is possible town just chose wrong. Your case is that you think she did so as town and replaced out. In Mulch's case, we can't verify if she was truthful in targeting marshy or not, and in your case, we can't verify if she replaced out tactically or not. What you should be looking at is her content, her stances, and her votes to see her motivation.-
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Alright. Can you tell me why you felt Tammy was scum originally? You asked if people wanted to see and I don't think you got a response.
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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I would not expect there to be any other role alongside it. Check my wiki for "Mafia on the Run" for a setup using that role.
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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