WWF Mafia: Royal Rumble (GAME OVER)

[Leonshade]

Beyond that, my townreads are stronger than any scumreads at this point. My reads list is in my ISO, the only real changes to it at this point are that I'd be shocked if either mastina or Priscila flipped scum. Even if they would be capable of that level of play as scum, tryharding to that extent only to put yourself at more of a risk of an NK just doesn't make sense from a scum perspective.

[Almost50]

I had reset and was pinged by his play around Chi.

I also don't like his case on you.

So, you don't want to lynch Chicka, and don't like the case on gerry. Let's assume I had shut up. Who else would you have suggested we lynch??

[Almost50]

my prom date and I

Now which one is you. Also I hardly recognized you with the new avi.

[mastina]

Zzzz

Yyyy

[mastina]

PeregrineV has been replaced by Ginngie. Please welcome Ginngie!

Ginngie, my dear, don't say I didn't warn you.
<3

[mastina]

hi ginngie, please lay your vote upon chickadee and you can read what you've missed in the night. sound fair?

Sounds fair to me!

[mastina]

Don't listen to Gerry, please read and help us solve the game

The game is already solved.

Phone posting at work while waiting. I'll obviously read the content since my last post when able to, but wanted this verbalized before I can forget.

If there's four scum, then we lynch Chickadee, LUV, McMenno, and Peregrine. If six, add from my lesser townread pile: Almost 50, Dodge, and Majiffy.

Priscilla, Gerry, Maria, and Leon are all hard townreads. Add in one of the lesser townreads (or all three if we have only four scum), and then you have everything you really need.

Basically, I really, really, REALLY feel like the game is on a lockwin. So if everyone is ready, we can lynch Chickadee at any time. She is just scum. By play, by POE, by everything.

And now that I'm back. I'd like to reaffirm this.
This game right now is on a lock win for town essentially.
We have a townbloc. It's strong. Priscilla. MariaR. Leonshade. gerryout. mastina. That's not quite half the playerlist, but it's pretty damn close to it.
Even if scum systematically kill within that grouping. (Which they might not.)

Lynch Chickadee, 11 alive.
Scum kill in that group.
Lynch LUV, 9 alive.
Scum kill in that group.
Lynch McMenno, 7 alive.
Scum kill in that group.
Lynch PeregrineV. Game's over.

OR, if not. At some point one of the above flips town and vengekills OUTSIDE the group.
Scum kill in the group.
In the resulting 3p lylo...you've got one town player, and two not so town players. One not-so-town player is lynched; if town, the not-so-town player vengekills the other not-so-town player.

So no matter what. We've got a lock win.

There is a slight hiccup to the plan, of course.
If there's six scum alive rather than four scum, then we need scum nightkilling scum in order to win. 'Cause right now we can't win a six scum game without scum's help. They'd make up literally half the voters (so we'd need them for a lynch); it'd be impossible to get rid of them all via just lynch in our given timeframe.

But if there's four scum alive right now, we're golden.

We either have the scum entirely locked down (scum are Chickadee/LUV/PeregrineV/McMenno)...
...Or, we have 1/2 scum within Almost50/Majiffy/Dodge, and we have between lynch/vengekills enough time to take them ALL out.

I don't think I'm fucking up my math at any spot.
So I think we do win this game if there's four scum alive right now.

Meaning, just lynch Chickadee.

So, Gin. You don't really need to read anything.
All you need to know is that you both need to LYNCH scum and if you luck out and get the nightkill, you also need to NIGHTKILL scum, because...

But, it's definitely still optimal for scum to nightkill scum, of course.

Indeed.
Especially since scum have no clue about the composition of teams in this game!
For all scum know, there's ten scum alive.
(There's not ten scum alive btw. But they don't know that.)

So it's optimal to shoot at scum because if scum are in the majority that's too many people who have access to the kill and too few chances to get rid of the competition via just the lynch.

In this game, the non-town players share a singular nightkill. Because there's only one death per night, there's only one player who would die. And thus, the town will shrink at a static rate no matter what. And most of the time, thanks to the number of scum in the game, a scum player isn't going to HAVE the kill, making each and every kill they DO possess matter more.

...So.
Given this.

A viable tactic for a scum in this game is to try and turn this into a singleball game: while dodging attention (thus, the lynch and any risk of a vengekill aimed their way, though they probably want to lynch scum to avoid the whole vengekill risk ANYWAY), deliberately using their nightkill on non-town players to try and get a monopoly on the kill. With a monopoly on the kill, they are no longer at risk of being nightkilled BY the kill, and no longer have to let someone else dictate who dies.

The normal reason scum would avoid that is the town being too large. But.

I think we started with probably a maximum of like 11 town. With us starting with a smaller town and with Not Chara already dead, the scum have an incentive to shoot for scum. This is something I obviously under normal circumstances wouldn't want to tell them (since telling scum the smart play when they've been stupid is itself a Really Dumb Idea)...

...But I honestly don't see the downsides of disclosing this?
Optimal play is for scum to shoot at scum. And we want scum dead. So we WANT them to shoot at each other. Shooting scum = not shooting town; shooting scum = less scum required to lynch. Yet it's still optimal play FOR them to shoot each other because shooting scum = less competition for the nightkill; shooting scum = greater control over the game; shooting scum = less randomness.

That should tell you just about everything you need to know.

Lynch Chickadee, nightkill LUV, and then lynch McMenno, nightkill Almost50, and we'll have saved you for last!

[mastina]

also mastina is even higher TR now just cause she has gothorita as her avi

Blame Chevre. <3

[mastina]

his case on me is poor, but based on the fact that i can understand what he meant when he was talking about the inception game we were both in, i can understand where he's coming from. it's just a bad read, and him prob being stubborn.

Distinctly possible!

[mastina]

Only read up to what was posted after replaced in, LUV, you scum read A50 because of his case on gerry, porque
Also gerry, why do you want me to vote Chick

I really am sorry, btw, Ginngie.
I knew that short of Priscilla/MariaR/gerry/Leonshade replacing out there was a significant chance of you drawing scum.
But.

Even if I hadn't been scumreading PeregrineV.

Even if PeregrineV was my top townread.

I'd be throwing that read out the window.
Because this is just your scum entrance.

I am sorry you couldn't replace town. But for what it's worth. You're last on my lynch list so we can at least hang out together for a while. You will need to die though. <3

[mastina]

holy shit
half the playerlist is dead

Like.

This is just a textbook Ginngie scum entrance.

Almost word-for-word Ginngie's attitude in Civ among others.

I really wanted you to be town.

But you're really really just...not.

[mastina]

Spoiler: AAAAAH MY EYES!

The stuff nightmares are made of.

[mastina]

Also, before I read up, can someone explain the colors to me, it's confusing

Your color = scum.
Red = dead scum.
Yellow = dead scum.
Blue = dead scum.
Purple = serial killer(s).
Olive = victorious lyncher.
Orange = scum.
Prolly some other color also = scum.
Maybe even a third color = scum.

But mostly, your color = scum.
And you're aiming to hit every color

except

green.

[mastina]

there is like 10 different maf teams and like 3 SKs.

Not exactly.
We've got three teams eliminated in their entirety. (Red/Blue/Yellow.)
We've got two teams we know have one member left. (Orange + Peptobislawl's original teammate.) So we know there's at least five mafia teams.
It's most likely for there to be six mafia teams. (That being, four scum left alive: two individuals, and two on a team.)
We could also have seven mafia teams. (That being, six scum alive: two individuals, two on one team, and two on a second team--if so, then scum REALLY need to kill scum because uh yeah that's not a game ANYONE can win really.) Less likely of course, but possible all the same.

I really don't think we have eight mafia teams. (That being, eight scum alive.) For a start, that'd require one of Priscilla/MariaR/gerry/Leonshade to be scum, and that's just not something I can accept. It'd also mean the town literally started with five total members, not something I'm willing to believe. Seven already seems too small. I really think we've got nine town starting the game, so eight alive.

[mastina]

chickadee is the scummiest person alive, thus i want them to be lynched.

This however is quite accurate.

[mastina]

but why is the million dollar question

Try reading the sections where you see pink (it helps to control-F 'Chick').

In a similar vein. I'd also highly recommend the same here. (Control-f 'Chick' also helps there.)

Read that and then you'll have most of what you need.

Chickadee is just scum in every way.

[mastina]

Last one, I basically tip my hat to this one and I'll wait for mastina to give me an in thread lesson on Night Kill Analysis but putting that in the fuck it bucket of wifom cuz I don't do NKA.

There two basic reasons why massive could have been killed.
massive could have been killed for reads--in which case, Chickadee is reasonably high in likelihood for being the murderer.
massive could have been killed to reduce competition--in which case, anybody could have made the kill, but Chickadee still is among those names, for fear of massive inheriting the nightkill again.

So I mostly back gerry here.
Is it assured Chickadee killed massive? No.
Is it reasonably probable? Yes. And that's more than good enough, given the metric fuckload of reasons for Chickadee being scum. (Seriously, iso Priscilla's catch-up on Chickadee. It's shorter than my iso and conveys just as much info on the slot. Then if you still need more go look at my iso and see my way of wording essentially the same gripes. Chickadee is just scum.)

[mastina]

yes mr kuroi xhf I would love accellerated deadlines

You know the shitty thing about the game being filled with scum is that they can actually push horrible-ass ideas like this into majority.

The sad part however is that short of there BEING eight scum, there's no way that it happened without town voting for it too.
(McMenno is not said town if you're curious.)

[mastina]

McMenno tell me whats up
give me something to read when I wake up

McMenno is scum; he's done nothing.

The thing about this game is that most of the scum are really obvious, it's just that...

...We've got too many to lynch in so little time.

[mastina]

I'd say to read my ISO for the Chickadee scumread, but I don't actually have a case for scum!Chick, it's just a read I've had for a long time. I think that her play today has been enough for a scumread. In addition to the stuff gerry already posted, I didn't like Chick threatening Maria with the vengekill due to voting for her.

All of this essentially.

Chickadee is just scum that is very obviously scum and has been since day one--the only reason she's still alive is because everyone else we've lynched has just been even more ridiculously obvious scum.

We didn't willingly end D1 or D3. But D2 had Gamma Emerald literally claim scum. As in. Not making a post which is obviously scum, "literally claimed scum". I mean. QUITE LITERALLY. As in, "I am scum". Claimed. scum.
Peptobislawl was very obviously scum. His fakeclaim of survivor was filled full of holes which sealed his fate.
And Tywin was literally the most obvious scum player I've ever seen.

Chickadee is next up on that list.
It goes Chickadee > LUV > McMenno in terms of the next three most obvious scum. (Well actually Ginngie's higher than McMenno but I have a soft spot there, so.)

[mastina]

Beyond that, my townreads are stronger than any scumreads at this point.

This is also the case.
Priscilla is town because you just can't fake that level of YES. You can't fake the things she's done. Even if she were capable of sincerely doing so as scum (and I doubt that), it'd be just a hilariously bad idea for her to actually take this approach if she WERE scum. The emotions, the content, the thoughts, the process, the way of wording things, the tone, the energy, the drive, the EVERYTHING Priscilla does is so overwhelmingly town that I would call the mod a liar and a bastard if he specified otherwise. Priscilla is what every town player should strive to be.

MariaR is that one townread you get which is oh so RIDICULOUSLY hard to word and yet just makes so much sense. She is like gut-town personified. Nothing she has done has given anyone any solid thing to townread her off of. And yet everyone is townreading her,

for good reason

. Leonshade saw the same thing I saw. Priscilla saw the same thing I saw. Her approach is just...highly unique. It's something which defies explanation, defies words. An aura radiating town and yet which you can't pinpoint the source of. She's just. She's town personified.

gerryout is not far behind. At every step of the way. I can follow his thought processes, and see what he's doing. He's sticking his neck out a lot. He's taking stances that aren't always popular. He's fighting for what he believes in at every point. He's not in the background; consistently perhaps more than any other player in the game, he's been in the foreground, charging forward. He's given content. He's given reasons. He's given reads. He continues to push, explaining himself and just being reasonable. And yet. He's also quirky. He's got some nonstandard stuff. Things which are weird. And yet, when you look at them from his eyes, you can totally see. I don't see scum as being able to take that stance.

And while Leonshade is the weakest of the town core. He is still very much a part of the town core. His reads and reasoning are spot-on. While his activity has at times been troubling...it's never been too large of a concern. Every time I see Leonshade post, my townread on him grows more and more, because he's saying all the right things and he's exactly how I think of him as town: on-point, having a good basis, and just being a force to be reckoned with.

I do have lesser townreads I'm not as confident in.
But none of the above will flip scum.

[mastina]

Also I hardly recognized you with the new avi.

Eh I prefer Ginngie's suit myself but whatevs. I feel like I'm obligated to support the current choice of avatar given mine.

[Majiffy]

Citation given.

I wank in your general direction

You know making arguments based on unflipped slots is utter trash. Don't be utter trash, mastina.

I'm sorry? Do I need to go back and talk about what mastina has done this game? Because I am trying to remember what you have done I do not remember much. So I wonder why you think you have room to speak like this.

Because I'm a shining fucking beacon of town light, that's why

So of the people not voting for Chick, I'd like to ask Majiffy, LUV and Dodge why they're not doing so.

Because there's a very good chance I'll finally get my gerry lynch today.

holy shit

half the playerlist is dead

Well it is Day 6 so

[Majiffy]

Oh and Ginnie stop listening to all the badscums and vote Gerry the obvscum

[mastina]

Because there's a very good chance I'll finally get my gerry lynch today.

Nnnnnnnnnnnnnope.

You'd have to get basically every scum in the game to support you and even then that'd only be enough if there's six scum because if there's four you still come up short.