Micro 731 | Scumteam UnPick II - Endgame
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Creature Solve This Game
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Creature Solve This Game
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Kingmaker Goon
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Kingmaker Goon
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In post 55, Duckdoggo wrote:I'm willing to sheep this because I'm too lazy to do the analysis myself
VOTE: vic
And ig don't worry too much about Day1 being abnormal. People will probably defend themselves and others the best they can, so we can prob still work on those.
Can you start defending yourself so that we can work on that?-
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TheBrie Mafia Scum
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@Kingmaker you're talking to Duckdoggo right? Not Vic? And I agree, that kind of sheeping is terribly lazy. And now that Comm isn't even voting there isn't worse. i don't want to put Ducko to L-1 yet though. We've got a few more days, and there still isn't much to go on.ShowWas once the mistress of contingency plans. Finding all the wrong answers along with the right ones since December 2016.
Jingle when I was SK: Wish TB would have won though, she was obvtown.
Silliest line from my best game: But neither of you seem that smart.
As scum: RC could be scum.-
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TheBrie Mafia Scum
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I'm not sure I understand this perfectly. I see that lynching scum would clear some of us, but I don't follow the second part. Lynching a persons only possible partners and having them flip town would clear them, but I don't think that's what you're saying.In post 70, Vic Sage wrote:Nah, probs not scum. Just stupid.
In order to be sure that none of the people he cleared is scum, we need to either lynch scum (which would be the point of lynching based on scum/townreads) or lynch me, ap, S&C, and one of his clears, and have all of those flip town.
So we have to lose, but we'll be absolutely sure of the scumteam if we do.
On the other hand, GL and CK both seem fairly town to me for scumhunting reasons.ShowWas once the mistress of contingency plans. Finding all the wrong answers along with the right ones since December 2016.
Jingle when I was SK: Wish TB would have won though, she was obvtown.
Silliest line from my best game: But neither of you seem that smart.
As scum: RC could be scum.-
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Kingmaker Goon
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Kingmaker Goon
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He is basically saying if he divides up suspect pool like that and if scum is in the second pool, we will use all our mislynches in first pool before getting to the second pool and as a result lose the game. Or that's what I understood.In post 80, TheBrie wrote:
I'm not sure I understand this perfectly. I see that lynching scum would clear some of us, but I don't follow the second part. Lynching a persons only possible partners and having them flip town would clear them, but I don't think that's what you're saying.In post 70, Vic Sage wrote:Nah, probs not scum. Just stupid.
In order to be sure that none of the people he cleared is scum, we need to either lynch scum (which would be the point of lynching based on scum/townreads) or lynch me, ap, S&C, and one of his clears, and have all of those flip town.
So we have to lose, but we'll be absolutely sure of the scumteam if we do.
On the other hand, GL and CK both seem fairly town to me for scumhunting reasons.
Are you looking for reads or excuses? Because "Only scum uses Gambler's Fallacy arguement" arguement is Reverse Gambler's Fallacy, which is actually chuckleworthy if nothing else. It's definitely not a read though.In post 69, CommKnight wrote:
Between this post and the one directly after. I'll tell you what I'll do.In post 67, Scylla and Charybdis wrote:
I was posting half asleep, and meant town, not scum.In post 62, CommKnight wrote:Also @Scylla, pay close attention to my posts. I don't SR TheBrie. I TR her because it's highly unlikely she's scum and I have no real reason to SR her atm.
Saying you town read someone because it's highly unlikely that they are scum is just bad imo.
It's gamblers fallacy, or whatever you call it.
The point of revealing who the picks were was to give us the possibilities of scum, not to read players from it.
I suggest you change your view on the Brie and stop acting like it's a town slot for that reason alone.
-Scylla
VOTE: Scylla
Gambler's fallacy. That was mentioned to me before. But you know who mentioned it? Scum. When i had multiple townies pegged and the entire scum team pegged into a smaller pool.
I'll reconsider my read on TheBrie in TOMORROW's stage. But in today's I'm interested in getting 2 lynches that will more likely both be on scum.-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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yesIn post 64, Duckdoggo wrote:
ObviouslyIn post 58, GuiltyLion wrote:
this is a bad and lazy vote, I think vic is townIn post 55, Duckdoggo wrote:I'm willing to sheep this because I'm too lazy to do the analysis myself
VOTE: vic
And ig don't worry too much about Day1 being abnormal. People will probably defend themselves and others the best they can, so we can prob still work on those.
UNVOTE:
VOTE: duckdoggo
Is it bad just because you townread them?
Do you think Vic is scum, and if no, why are you voting him"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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Gambler's fallacy is assuming that future probabilities are influenced/affected by past outcomes of independent events. So I don't see a Gambler's fallacy in CK's postIn post 69, CommKnight wrote:
Between this post and the one directly after. I'll tell you what I'll do.In post 67, Scylla and Charybdis wrote:
I was posting half asleep, and meant town, not scum.In post 62, CommKnight wrote:Also @Scylla, pay close attention to my posts. I don't SR TheBrie. I TR her because it's highly unlikely she's scum and I have no real reason to SR her atm.
Saying you town read someone because it's highly unlikely that they are scum is just bad imo.
It's gamblers fallacy, or whatever you call it.
The point of revealing who the picks were was to give us the possibilities of scum, not to read players from it.
I suggest you change your view on the Brie and stop acting like it's a town slot for that reason alone.
-Scylla
VOTE: Scylla
Gambler's fallacy. That was mentioned to me before. But you know who mentioned it? Scum. When i had multiple townies pegged and the entire scum team pegged into a smaller pool.
I'll reconsider my read on TheBrie in TOMORROW's stage. But in today's I'm interested in getting 2 lynches that will more likely both be on scum.
However, the way he retaliated with a vote and a "last time someone said that they were scum" argument is terrible. S&C looks town to me, and CK didn't actually address any of the real substance of S&C's argument/post, instead latching onto a (incorrectly applied) buzzword"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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I like Kingmaker's entrance
town: {S&C, Kingmaker, Vic}
null: {The Brie, vung-slot-that-hasn't-posted-yet}
scummier than null: {CK, DuckDoggo}"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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actually I kinda feel like DuckDoggo might be town with scum avoiding voting them
let's see if this wagon can get any traction
VOTE: CommKnight"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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TheBrie Mafia Scum
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Commknight as scum? He seems towny. But He also admitted (not in this game) to being a somewhat unconventional player. And I just lost a game to two scum that I didn't seriously suspect all game. So I don't trust myself.In post 86, GuiltyLion wrote:actually I kinda feel like DuckDoggo might be town with scum avoiding voting them
let's see if this wagon can get any traction
VOTE: CommKnight
But I agree that his more recent posts aren't so great.
What exactly are you saying about Duckdoggo? Wouldn't scum be more likely to vote him if he was town?ShowWas once the mistress of contingency plans. Finding all the wrong answers along with the right ones since December 2016.
Jingle when I was SK: Wish TB would have won though, she was obvtown.
Silliest line from my best game: But neither of you seem that smart.
As scum: RC could be scum.-
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Duckdoggo Townie
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I can't really recall my other games where someone said something about scumhunting other than my first newbie game which was like 2 months ago I believe. Anyway, so there was a player who was scum and said stuff about other people are scumhunting so they don't look scummy to him, and I was like, no way this guy is scum my gut told me the opposite but yeah, just saying, I'm not putting you or anyone in my strong town list just because someone mentions that another player is scumhunting=town. scumhunting= pro town, correct. but of course a scum would have to play as town but there is a tactic that scum use, which is to have other towns feel praised by someone (typically scum) in order to be pocketed.In post 70, Vic Sage wrote:Nah, probs not scum. Just stupid.
In order to be sure that none of the people he cleared is scum, we need to either lynch scum (which would be the point of lynching based on scum/townreads) or lynch me, ap, S&C, and one of his clears, and have all of those flip town.
So we have to lose, but we'll be absolutely sure of the scumteam if we do.
On the other hand, GL and CK both seem fairly town to me for scumhunting reasons.
Catching on the posts, so please don't assume this is like a finalize post I made overall from my absent, I just want to point out that you mentioning other people are town ish because of scum hunting is a little pinging for me. It could be the fact that I lost in that game and got scarred for it. If you're sided with town, hope you can understand.
-STHydra of Sergtacos and Carcalilly-
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Duckdoggo Townie
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The table won't help us right now? how come? Could you explain to me the examples/situations how the table won't help and can only be of a help later on? I mean I know it can help later on but why not now?In post 77, Kingmaker wrote:Hey hey hey!
Table is practically useless until we get a scum flip or we get to a lylo situation, both of which are not gonna happen during d1 - so let's drop it now and never speak of it again today?
I'm okayish with my "old" vote but in case if I need to refresh it VOTE: CommKnight
I'm new to this kind of theme and first hydra as well, so excuse me for my noobness.Hydra of Sergtacos and Carcalilly-
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Duckdoggo Townie
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A first lynch with a chart what we have now won't get information?In post 81, Kingmaker wrote:Yup I was talking to Doggo. I don't think calling a self proclaimed lazy vote lazy and voting them for it is terribly hardworking either though, so meh.
I don't see any merit in rushing the first lynch as we are not going to get any information out of it.
Ok now im lost, then whats the point of the table?
-STHydra of Sergtacos and Carcalilly-
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Duckdoggo Townie
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Curious why do you think I'm scum?In post 85, GuiltyLion wrote:I like Kingmaker's entrance
town: {S&C, Kingmaker, Vic}
null: {The Brie, vung-slot-that-hasn't-posted-yet}
scummier than null: {CK, DuckDoggo}Hydra of Sergtacos and Carcalilly-
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Duckdoggo Townie
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Oh nvm, lazy voting, gotcha. Man i need to start saying -st so yall dont get confused xDIn post 92, Duckdoggo wrote:
Curious why do you think I'm scum?In post 85, GuiltyLion wrote:I like Kingmaker's entrance
town: {S&C, Kingmaker, Vic}
null: {The Brie, vung-slot-that-hasn't-posted-yet}
scummier than null: {CK, DuckDoggo}Hydra of Sergtacos and Carcalilly-
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CommKnight Mafia Scum
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Lol, I'm chuckling at your reads because it's basically a reverse of mine.In post 85, GuiltyLion wrote:I like Kingmaker's entrance
town: {S&C, Kingmaker, Vic}
null: {The Brie, vung-slot-that-hasn't-posted-yet}
scummier than null: {CK, DuckDoggo}
Town: GuiltyLion, TheBrie & DuckDoggo
Null: Vung (seriously this slot needs to figure its' shit out.)
Scummy: S&C, Kingmaker & Vic.
The only read I agree with you on is Vung and that's because they haven't even posted! You SR me, I TR you. You SR Duck and maybe TheBrie, I TR both of them. You TR those 3 and it's like no. They're the highest on my list of possible scummies.
I think we need to lynch in S&C, Kingmaker and Vic first here to get any sort of chance of hitting scum. Lynching outside of those 3 is just going to be a mislynch. Show me why the 3 of them are town. Make a case for them. Because from where I stand they're the 3 candidates for scum. I wouldn't be surprised if both scum are in the 3.-
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Kingmaker Goon
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Partnership analysis without no flip info is completely basing your thoughts on assumptions - if those assumptions are false then all your analysis was useless and you were only biasing yourself to one outcome and ignoring all the others.In post 90, Duckdoggo wrote:
The table won't help us right now? how come? Could you explain to me the examples/situations how the table won't help and can only be of a help later on? I mean I know it can help later on but why not now?In post 77, Kingmaker wrote:Hey hey hey!
Table is practically useless until we get a scum flip or we get to a lylo situation, both of which are not gonna happen during d1 - so let's drop it now and never speak of it again today?
I'm okayish with my "old" vote but in case if I need to refresh it VOTE: CommKnight
I'm new to this kind of theme and first hydra as well, so excuse me for my noobness.
This mechanic(and the table we have thanks to it) only helps us at partnership analysis, which should be avoided until we have confirmed alignment flips. Before that, not actually useful.
First lynch of day 1 does not flip immediately hence we won't get information from it until end of day 1.In post 91, Duckdoggo wrote:
A first lynch with a chart what we have now won't get information?In post 81, Kingmaker wrote:Yup I was talking to Doggo. I don't think calling a self proclaimed lazy vote lazy and voting them for it is terribly hardworking either though, so meh.
I don't see any merit in rushing the first lynch as we are not going to get any information out of it.
Ok now im lost, then whats the point of the table?
-ST-
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TheBrie Mafia Scum
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CommKnight, are you saying you town read me for other reasons that PoE?
As for the other reads, I'd really like it if both Comm and Guilty put up some more reasons. I'm seeing good points on the little from both sides and I'm feeling a little lost.ShowWas once the mistress of contingency plans. Finding all the wrong answers along with the right ones since December 2016.
Jingle when I was SK: Wish TB would have won though, she was obvtown.
Silliest line from my best game: But neither of you seem that smart.
As scum: RC could be scum.-
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TheBrie Mafia Scum
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I just realized I don't understand the second half of that. Are you saying that if we would get information, we should rush it?In post 81, Kingmaker wrote:Yup I was talking to Doggo. I don't think calling a self proclaimed lazy vote lazy and voting them for it is terribly hardworking either though, so meh.
I don't see any merit in rushing the first lynch as we are not going to get any information out of it.ShowWas once the mistress of contingency plans. Finding all the wrong answers along with the right ones since December 2016.
Jingle when I was SK: Wish TB would have won though, she was obvtown.
Silliest line from my best game: But neither of you seem that smart.
As scum: RC could be scum.-
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Kingmaker Goon
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TheBrie Mafia Scum
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Okay, I follow that. So basically, we want to lynch someone right before the deadline. But make sure it doesn't get stalled. That sound okay with everyone?ShowWas once the mistress of contingency plans. Finding all the wrong answers along with the right ones since December 2016.
Jingle when I was SK: Wish TB would have won though, she was obvtown.
Silliest line from my best game: But neither of you seem that smart.
As scum: RC could be scum.
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