Micro 731 | Scumteam UnPick II - Endgame

[Kingmaker]

I don't like Comm ignoring commenting on Doggo's lazy vote based on his own tables or other people pushing him for that vote, but jumping at Scylla for use of the phrase "gambler's fallacy"

I hate the fact that Comm basically sorted the number of possibilities on his own table and made a tier list out of them without giving any actual reasoning or any hint of reads further than "I scum/town read X/Y".

I feel stronger about my vote.

[Duckdoggo]

Hey hey hey!

Table is practically useless until we get a scum flip or we get to a lylo situation, both of which are not gonna happen during d1 - so let's drop it now and never speak of it again today?

I'm okayish with my "old" vote but in case if I need to refresh it VOTE: CommKnight

The table won't help us right now? how come? Could you explain to me the examples/situations how the table won't help and can only be of a help later on? I mean I know it can help later on but why not now?

I'm new to this kind of theme and first hydra as well, so excuse me for my noobness.

Partnership analysis without no flip info is completely basing your thoughts on assumptions - if those assumptions are false then all your analysis was useless and you were only biasing yourself to one outcome and ignoring all the others.

This mechanic(and the table we have thanks to it) only helps us at partnership analysis, which should be avoided until we have confirmed alignment flips. Before that, not actually useful.

Yup I was talking to Doggo. I don't think calling a self proclaimed lazy vote lazy and voting them for it is terribly hardworking either though, so meh.

I don't see any merit in rushing the first lynch as we are not going to get any information out of it.

A first lynch with a chart what we have now won't get information?

Ok now im lost, then whats the point of the table?

-ST

First lynch of day 1 does not flip immediately hence we won't get information from it until end of day 1.

Ohh ok. When will the table be useful?

Ah I read the post wrong xD thought it said something like if we lynch right now we get no info but like ohhh i see now, its if we lynch right now very soon we get no info. yeah, thats true.

[Duckdoggo]

Yup I was talking to Doggo. I don't think calling a self proclaimed lazy vote lazy and voting them for it is terribly hardworking either though, so meh.

I don't see any merit in rushing the first lynch as we are not going to get any information out of it.

I just realized I don't understand the second half of that. Are you saying that if we would get information, we should rush it?

Got confused with the second half too lol.

I believe it meant, if we rush the lynch we will not get the information we want compared to not lynching someone that quickly in order to see who says what and analyze as much as possible.

Basically, more time=more posts=more info. Less time=less posts=less info.

[Duckdoggo]

-ST ^^

[Scylla and Charybdis]

Gambler's fallacy. That was mentioned to me before. But you know who mentioned it? Scum. When i had multiple townies pegged and the entire scum team pegged into a smaller pool.

I do hope that the defensive stance doesn't keep up through out the game.
I'm not going to argue about what % of gamblers fallacy comes from either side, but I do expect you to start giving some serious reads and reasons going forward.

-Scylla

[Scylla and Charybdis]

In order to be sure that none of the people he cleared is scum, we need to either lynch scum (which would be the point of lynching based on scum/townreads) or lynch me, ap, S&C, and one of his clears, and have all of those flip town.

If these 4 flip town, we lose the game. However, if any 4 flip scum, we effectivly win.

Lynching outside of those 3 is just going to be a mislynch.

Where are you even getting this information from? Because your reads list do not match to your confidence in everyone else being town.

I'm currently waiting on Charybdis to discuss reads, as last time we spoke Charybdis thought that Vic Sage was scummy while I disagreed. I'll share our reads later tonight.

-Scylla

[Duckdoggo]

The sheep is right, probably better to speculate with the unpicks after a while.
Right now, nobody really sticks out as scummy to me, so I'm going to keep my vote.

And Comm looks more townie in this game than what I've seen before.

Also, yes I realize that was a lazy sheep. No duh. It's my way of showing that I agree with you.
Why would I take the time to make my own table when you guys already did it? If anything it would just be useless and lamisty.

-C

[Scylla and Charybdis]

Can you give examples why Comm is town here, Carca?
I'm considering it myself so we can share notes.

-Scylla

[Kingmaker]

The sheep is right, probably better to speculate with the unpicks after a while.
Right now, nobody really sticks out as scummy to me, so I'm going to keep my vote.

And Comm looks more townie in this game than what I've seen before.

Also, yes I realize that was a lazy sheep. No duh. It's my way of showing that I agree with you.
Why would I take the time to make my own table when you guys already did it? If anything it would just be useless and lamisty.

-C

Was there a specific reason you picked Vic out of 5 people with most possible partners on the analysis Comm has given?

[Vic Sage]

Vic Sage,
acidphoenix, Scylla & Char,
Duckdoggo, vung
CommKnight, GuiltyLion, TheBrie

Town: GuiltyLion, TheBrie & DuckDoggo
Null: Vung (seriously this slot needs to figure its' shit out.)
Scummy: S&C, Kingmaker & Vic.

This is concerning. Your odds post and your reads post are basically the same post. Would you care to share reasons with the class, or were you talking out of your ass when you said you wanted to scumhunt today?

[Vic Sage]

actually I kinda feel like DuckDoggo might be town with scum avoiding voting them

let's see if this wagon can get any traction

VOTE: CommKnight

Any particular reason he's scum and not just lazy town?

[Vic Sage]

I can't really recall my other games where someone said something about scumhunting other than my first newbie game which was like 2 months ago I believe. Anyway, so there was a player who was scum and said stuff about other people are scumhunting so they don't look scummy to him, and I was like, no way this guy is scum my gut told me the opposite but yeah, just saying, I'm not putting you or anyone in my strong town list just because someone mentions that another player is scumhunting=town. scumhunting= pro town, correct. but of course a scum would have to play as town but there is a tactic that scum use, which is to have other towns feel praised by someone (typically scum) in order to be pocketed.

First. It's page 5. My reads aren't set in stone.

Second. Scumhunting reasons refers to "I'm doing things about scumhunting, not mechanics, and I think these two are town because of it." Not "These two are town because they're scumhunting."

Third. Why didn't either of you respond to the mechanics conversation on the first page? I could understand not wanting to claim for mechanics reasons. I could understand claiming for mechanics reasons. I can't understand sitting there and doing nothing while everyone around you claims and talks about mechanics. Please explain to me what your thought process for 14 was.

[Vic Sage]

Town:
GuiltyLion
CommKnight

vungrzlfrys
TheBrie
Kingmaker

Scylla and Charybdis
Duckdoggo (hydra of Carcalilly and Sergtacos)

This is where my reads stand, btw. Both Brie and KM came across as polite and theory heavy so far, need to take a better look at them.

S&C seems to want to blend into the background. Very manipulative tone and I'm not seeing much of an attempt at solving the game from them.

DD is pretty clear as to why I want them dead and gone.

CK is too angry about people wanting to do things he doesn't see as optimal to be anything other than town. Like, if I'm scum I argue the best play for town and then get really happy if people ignore it. You don't get mad at people for playing in a way you think is anti town.

GL gets to be town because he's playing the game with a clear and valid logic. I can understand the point he's trying to make in every single one of his posts so far (with the exception of the CK read) and can see why he as town is trying to make it.

[TheBrie]

I rather like what Vic said there. Most of it anyway.

My opinion of Ducko is that Sergtacos has a better handle on the game than Carcalilly. But I'm still not overly happy.

I'm not picking up on S&C being manipulative. Which makes me worry that I'm being subtly manipulated.

I'm still uncertain on Comm. On one hand he seems lazy, but he put a lot of work into his tables. Simply I don't trust anyone.

[Vic Sage]

Brie, my reasoning on S&C is a couple things. The hydra dissonance on me (it seems like they mention in every other post that one of them thinks I'm scum and the other thinks I'm town) combined with the buddy-buddy feel of the posts addressing me raises eyebrows. Additionally, 60 and 68 seem pretty aimed at pushing people at other people. 68 specifically seems to be pretty much designed to get me to vote CK. 40 and 105 also feel pretty weird to me.

CK, additionally voted based only on the mechanic after I said I thought scum might try to avoid scumhunting by doing that. That seems a little TOO ballsy for scum, which is admittedly weak reasoning but worth pointing out.

[Vic Sage]

actually I kinda feel like DuckDoggo might be town with scum avoiding voting them

Remember that bussing is really really stupid in this setup.

[TheBrie]

^Good points there. I think I had already mentioned that it would more sense if scum were voting them if they were town. (Why did that sentence come out so horribly? I'm supposed to be a writer and I can't even word properly.)

And I can see that with S&C. Too much dissonance. And though they're not trying to buddy me, I still don't like it.

VOTE: Scylla and Charybdis

[Creature]

Resuming deadline.

Deadline: (expired on 2017-07-30 01:52:12)

[TheBrie]

Does this mean Vunglething will be posting soon?

[Kingmaker]

You don't like them buddying up to Vic but meanwhile you are... buddying up to Vic? Kinda mixed signals there.

[Kingmaker]

I don't think Comm is being lazy. I think he is not being genuine.

[Duckdoggo]

About comm,
In my opinion they're just less awkward here than other games I've seen them in.

Also, consistency between heads probably is more of a town tell than a scumtell. Hydras have a PT, and if they're scum, they'd probably be way more careful.

Tacobutt and I will always have a buddy-buddy feel, and y'all gotta get used to it.

-C

[CommKnight]

I'm posting later tonight, woke up later than I'd have liked to and don't got enough time. So this is sorta a prodge till I get home from work.

[Scylla and Charybdis]

Brie, my reasoning on S&C is a couple things. The hydra dissonance on me (it seems like they mention in every other post that one of them thinks I'm scum and the other thinks I'm town) combined with the buddy-buddy feel of the posts addressing me raises eyebrows. Additionally, 60 and 68 seem pretty aimed at pushing people at other people. 68 specifically seems to be pretty much designed to get me to vote CK. 40 and 105 also feel pretty weird to me.

CK, additionally voted based only on the mechanic after I said I thought scum might try to avoid scumhunting by doing that. That seems a little TOO ballsy for scum, which is admittedly weak reasoning but worth pointing out.

I think you are miss reading my point. I'm waiting for an update from Charybdis who wanted to vote you. I dont see you as Scum and I think I said that he and Charybdis have this difference twice. To say every other post is a huge mis rep.

-Scylla

[Scylla and Charybdis]

^Good points there. I think I had already mentioned that it would more sense if scum were voting them if they were town. (Why did that sentence come out so horribly? I'm supposed to be a writer and I can't even word properly.)

And I can see that with S&C. Too much dissonance. And though they're not trying to buddy me, I still don't like it.

VOTE: Scylla and Charybdis

Why would we need to be buddying you for you not to like it? This is plausibly opportunity but I'm not sold.
So tell me your opinion on each point Vic Sage as you said they were good points.

-scylla