Micro 731 | Scumteam UnPick II - Endgame

[GuiltyLion]

What exactly are you saying about Duckdoggo? Wouldn't scum be more likely to vote him if he was town?

I had looked at the Duckdoggo wagon again (when I had made that post), and didn't see anyone I thought was scum on it, despite the fact that it was an early wagon and there wasn't anything particularly AI or scummy behind what content Duckdoggo had posted. So then I thought it might be the case that scum is dancing around an eventual mislynch that they could conveniently hop on at deadline, and I wanted to push in another direction to see what happened.

[GuiltyLion]

Show me why the 3 of them are town. Make a case for them. Because from where I stand they're the 3 candidates for scum. I wouldn't be surprised if both scum are in the 3.

I don't like town-casing, I much prefer people to make scumcases. If I make a correct town-case, it wouldn't tell you anything about my alignment (because scum!me would know that they are town), and if I make an incorrect town-case (on scum) it is a waste of time and ultimately hurts town if it's convincing enough. I believe mafia is best played with people selling their scumreads and the people townreading those scumreadings evaluating the strength of the case.

Why do you think S&C is scum? Is it just because of the gambler's fallacy comment, or is there anything more there?

[GuiltyLion]

actually I kinda feel like DuckDoggo might be town with scum avoiding voting them

let's see if this wagon can get any traction

VOTE: CommKnight

Any particular reason he's scum and not just lazy town?

I think Comm's escalation of the "gambler's fallacy" comment was a bad reply and more likely to be scum-motivated. Instead of arguing with S&C's

point

(which is that Comm was using odds to townread people and generally making reads from the table), Comm instead attacks the terminology (using a 1 game past experience sample ) as a reason to scumread S&C. Comm was escalating the argument (scummy) instead of justifying his thought process (townie).

CK is too angry about people wanting to do things he doesn't see as optimal to be anything other than town. Like, if I'm scum I argue the best play for town and then get really happy if people ignore it. You don't get mad at people for playing in a way you think is anti town.

I disagree with this, I think if I'm scum I'd milk the "optimal town strategy" for as much towncred as I can. Especially if I can still use the strategy to push mislynches, which seems entirely possible here.

[Vic Sage]

About comm,
In my opinion they're just less awkward here than other games I've seen them in.

Also, consistency between heads probably is more of a town tell than a scumtell. Hydras have a PT, and if they're scum, they'd probably be way more careful.

Tacobutt and I will always have a buddy-buddy feel, and y'all gotta get used to it.

-C

Hydra dissonance is a real tool that can be used at any opportunity to look like town by scum. "Look at this thing we disagree on, we clearly discuss our reads!" Is definitely an easy way to look like you have reads.

Brie, my reasoning on S&C is a couple things. The hydra dissonance on me (it seems like they mention in every other post that one of them thinks I'm scum and the other thinks I'm town) combined with the buddy-buddy feel of the posts addressing me raises eyebrows. Additionally, 60 and 68 seem pretty aimed at pushing people at other people. 68 specifically seems to be pretty much designed to get me to vote CK. 40 and 105 also feel pretty weird to me.

CK, additionally voted based only on the mechanic after I said I thought scum might try to avoid scumhunting by doing that. That seems a little TOO ballsy for scum, which is admittedly weak reasoning but worth pointing out.

I think you are miss reading my point. I'm waiting for an update from Charybdis who wanted to vote you. I dont see you as Scum and I think I said that he and Charybdis have this difference twice. To say every other post is a huge mis rep.

-Scylla

Definitely an exaggeration, but not an egregious one, methinks.

List of Content containing S&C posts:

36 Vic is *dissonance*
40
60
67
68 Vic is town
105 Vic is *dissonance*
my post
107
123 Vic is *dissonance*
124

Fully half of the posts you had that had any form of scumhunting mentioned a read on me before I called you out for it. Fully 1/3 of your posts that contain scumhunting mention your hydra dissonance over me. I also think you're overestimating the strength of the read, but I'm glad my read is getting to you. I love being the center of people's universes.


PEdit: That's a fair point. I also have slight concern over the fact that his "strategy" is incredibly powerful if CK is scum. We really need the vung claims ASAP.

[Kingmaker]

@Vic

What are your thoughts on this?

You don't like them buddying up to Vic but meanwhile you are... buddying up to Vic? Kinda mixed signals there.

[Scylla and Charybdis]

Fully half of the posts you had that had any form of scumhunting mentioned a read on me before I called you out for it. Fully 1/3 of your posts that contain scumhunting mention your hydra dissonance over me. I also think you're overestimating the strength of the read, but I'm glad my read is getting to you. I love being the center of people's universes.

So because I have you as town and my other head doesn't (didn't?) Agree that has me as Scum?
And no. At your point of this post I had 18 posts. 2 mention my other head that that isn't 1/3.
I wouldn't say your read is exactly getting to Me, I just think that the case falls short, of well, anything convincing.

To clarify, the 3 Scum reads on me are - "use of particular words", "having a different read to my other head" and "What he said".

I'm not sure I have a great deal to worry about right now. But moving on from being smug, where do you think Scum are if I flip town?

-Scylla

[TheBrie]

^Good points there. I think I had already mentioned that it would more sense if scum were voting them if they were town. (Why did that sentence come out so horribly? I'm supposed to be a writer and I can't even word properly.)

And I can see that with S&C. Too much dissonance. And though they're not trying to buddy me, I still don't like it.

VOTE: Scylla and Charybdis

Why would we need to be buddying you for you not to like it? This is plausibly opportunity but I'm not sold.
So tell me your opinion on each point Vic Sage as you said they were good points.

-scylla

His points on you made sense, though I still don't fully trust Vic.

At the time, his argument for Comm being town seemed pretty sound, though Guilty's arguments the other way has its merits. I'm stuck there.

And I agree that bussing is not a good idea in this set up and scum are unlikely to do it.

[Vic Sage]

And no. At your point of this post I had 18 posts. 2 mention my other head that that isn't 1/3.
I wouldn't say your read is exactly getting to Me, I just think that the case falls short, of well, anything convincing.

To clarify, the 3 Scum reads on me are - "use of particular words", "having a different read to my other head" and "What he said".

I'm not sure I have a great deal to worry about right now. But moving on from being smug, where do you think Scum are if I flip town?

-Scylla

Which of your posts other than the 9 I linked had scumhunting content? I'm happy to admit that both CK and Brie's votes on you reek, but you do appear to have quite a bit more concern about me than I think is normal.

As far as where I'd look if you flipped town? Really? You're going to ask me to put together a plan of action that can be manipulated for an event I'm not actively attempting to initiate based on a very slight scum read? I'll probably work to figure out reads on the half of the player list I don't have a clue about if you get yourself modkilled. Barring that, I'm hoping I have quite a bit more to go on for the next lynch regardless of who gets the rope.

[Creature]

Votecount 1.1.3

Votecount 1.1.3

[0] Kingmaker
[1] Vic Sage - Duckdoggo
[2] Scylla and Charybdis - CommKnight, TheBrie
[2] CommKnight - Kingmaker, GuiltyLion
[0] GuiltyLion
[2] Duckdoggo - Vic Sage, Scylla and Charybdis
[0] TheBrie
[0] vungrzlfrys

[0] Nolynch

Not voting: vungrzlfrys

8 players are alive, therefore 5 votes is the majority.

Deadline: (expired on 2017-07-30 01:52:12)

[Vic Sage]

@Duckdoggo

Third. Why didn't either of you respond to the mechanics conversation on the first page? I could understand not wanting to claim for mechanics reasons. I could understand claiming for mechanics reasons. I can't understand sitting there and doing nothing while everyone around you claims and talks about mechanics. Please explain to me what your thought process for 14 was.

Still waiting, btw.

@TheBrie

Readslist please?

@KM

I've noted it. It's definitely a possibility, but not one I feel is worth abandoning my DD questioning to pursue, and thus will be dealt with when I have more time. On the plus side, however, I'm feeling pretty good about you.

PEdit, was about to make an unofficial one. Analysis of votecount:

Notable in this: S&C wagon is garbage on a scummy player. CK wagon has only townreads. Sheep vote on me is now alone with no reasoning.

[Scylla and Charybdis]

Which of your posts other than the 9 I linked had scumhunting content? I'm happy to admit that both CK and Brie's votes on you reek, but you do appear to have quite a bit more concern about me than I think is normal.

As far as where I'd look if you flipped town? Really? You're going to ask me to put together a plan of action that can be manipulated for an event I'm not actively attempting to initiate based on a very slight scum read? I'll probably work to figure out reads on the half of the player list I don't have a clue about if you get yourself modkilled. Barring that, I'm hoping I have quite a bit more to go on for the next lynch regardless of who gets the rope.

If I feel that someone is voting me is town, I want to attempt to change that.
Overall, Comm will be louder than you but as I'm not confident there I want to sort first before trying to reason with him. Town gain nothing if I let me town reads just call me Scum as the real Scum then just get a day 1 coast.

My point here is don't tunnel me. Right now you seem more focused on me and Doggo than all the players.
Why would I be mod killed?

-Scylla

[Duckdoggo]

I can't really recall my other games where someone said something about scumhunting other than my first newbie game which was like 2 months ago I believe. Anyway, so there was a player who was scum and said stuff about other people are scumhunting so they don't look scummy to him, and I was like, no way this guy is scum my gut told me the opposite but yeah, just saying, I'm not putting you or anyone in my strong town list just because someone mentions that another player is scumhunting=town. scumhunting= pro town, correct. but of course a scum would have to play as town but there is a tactic that scum use, which is to have other towns feel praised by someone (typically scum) in order to be pocketed.

First. It's page 5. My reads aren't set in stone.

Second. Scumhunting reasons refers to "I'm doing things about scumhunting, not mechanics, and I think these two are town because of it." Not "These two are town because they're scumhunting."

Third. Why didn't either of you respond to the mechanics conversation on the first page? I could understand not wanting to claim for mechanics reasons. I could understand claiming for mechanics reasons. I can't understand sitting there and doing nothing while everyone around you claims and talks about mechanics. Please explain to me what your thought process for 14 was.

Yes I'm aware your reads aren't in stone, mine isn't either.

To your third- If you read my posts, I said I had no idea how the table works and stuff like that and my idea of mechanics for this game=nada. But will look at post 14 and respond.

[Duckdoggo]

Town:
GuiltyLion
CommKnight

vungrzlfrys
TheBrie
Kingmaker

Scylla and Charybdis
Duckdoggo (hydra of Carcalilly and Sergtacos)

This is where my reads stand, btw. Both Brie and KM came across as polite and theory heavy so far, need to take a better look at them.

S&C seems to want to blend into the background. Very manipulative tone and I'm not seeing much of an attempt at solving the game from them.

DD is pretty clear as to why I want them dead and gone.

CK is too angry about people wanting to do things he doesn't see as optimal to be anything other than town. Like, if I'm scum I argue the best play for town and then get really happy if people ignore it. You don't get mad at people for playing in a way you think is anti town.

GL gets to be town because he's playing the game with a clear and valid logic. I can understand the point he's trying to make in every single one of his posts so far (with the exception of the CK read) and can see why he as town is trying to make it.

Why am I that of a strong scum read to you? I seriously see no good explanation points and arguments from you. Your argument is weak. Maybe it isn't because I'm a strong scum to you (AKA you scum).

Again, keyword=maybe.

And you said your reads aren't in stone, however you said your vote on me was a serious vote, conflict much? Please do explain. Is it because you don't want others to see your vote ISN'T in stone so that is why you said that ALTHOUGH your vote on me was serious you said and your argument is weak.

"Talk about the mechanic"



Again, I have no clue of what to do about the mechanic of the game but I did claim.

-ST

[TheBrie]

I've had a family birthday and too much work and late nights. I'll get that read list earlier as I can tomorrow. Bed is now.

[Creature]

vungrzlfrys was prodded.

[TheBrie]

Townish:

Vic, his reasoning mostly seems good.
Guilty, also good content and reasoning. Makes the game hard because he and Vic don't agree.
Kingmaker, not so active, but asks good questions and seems to know what he's thinking.

Nullish:

Comm, I could swing either way with him. I liked him at first and now I don't, but I can see good reasons for him being and not being scum.
Vung, well duh. I really think he should have been replaced before now.

Scummish:
Scylla and Charybdis, besides what I've said before there's a little gut feeling here.
Duckdoggo, Maybe I just don't like hydras? They've not put much behind their vote on Comm.

However I doubt they're scum together. It just doesn't feel right. So I've missed something.

[Vic Sage]

Sorry, but I had a pet die today and I'm not feeling up to dealing with you all at the moment. I'll be back tomorrow.

[Duckdoggo]

Townish:

Vic, his reasoning mostly seems good.
Guilty, also good content and reasoning. Makes the game hard because he and Vic don't agree.
Kingmaker, not so active, but asks good questions and seems to know what he's thinking.

Nullish:

Comm, I could swing either way with him. I liked him at first and now I don't, but I can see good reasons for him being and not being scum.
Vung, well duh. I really think he should have been replaced before now.

Scummish:
Scylla and Charybdis, besides what I've said before there's a little gut feeling here.
Duckdoggo, Maybe I just don't like hydras? They've not put much behind their vote on Comm.

However I doubt they're scum together. It just doesn't feel right. So I've missed something.

My vote is on Vic, not on Comm.

-ST

[Kingmaker]

@DuckDoggo

That(137) was a horrible post. Instead of giving Vic(or anyone else) a reason to read you as town, you basically attacked him and your reasoning behind it is off as well. Seriousness of a read and a read not being set in stone are not mutually exclusive,

no one's

read should be set in stone right now - we are 6 pages into the game and one of the players haven't even showed up yet! That does not stop the reads from being serious though?

Why are you only tunneling on Vic, he is not the only one who is suspicious of you? Why did you vote him in the first place, out of 5 people who had same amount of probable partnerships? Why did you dodge my first question on this, only to attack Vic over his suspicion on you and do...nothing else? Where are your reads - you must have some reads as you said your reads are not set in stone?

You've effectively scumhunted as much as Vung at this point. From my point of view you are either unmotivated towny with very little will to play or scum who is barely trying - in either case I see

no reason

you should not be lynched.

[CommKnight]

Sorry, but I had a pet die today and I'm not feeling up to dealing with you all at the moment. I'll be back tomorrow.

It's all good man, real life comes first. It's why I'm not able to post what I wanted to post yet, don't even got the time right now to post the full length of it all.

__________________________________________________________________________________

So my reasons for TR'ing GuiltyLion and TheBrie has to do with their play and attitude thus far in the game. Not because of my table. My table just helps further increase the chances of me being correct on those reads and thus less doubt in them.

VOTE: Vung - There's a good chance this slot is scum and it'd at least free up the mod from finding a replacement. The only other one I'd be willing to lynch is Kingmaker at the moment. Everyone else I'd rather have 7 more days to sort better for the second lynch.

[Scylla and Charybdis]

I'd rather a replacement was just found.

-Scylla

[GuiltyLion]

The only other one I'd be willing to lynch is Kingmaker at the moment

why Kingmaker?

[GuiltyLion]

honestly that's about all I got, I reread the last couple pages and I don't have much new to add. I think Vic and Kingmaker are my two strongest townreads. I'd probably most like to flip DuckDoggo and Comm but the absence of the vung slot is killing the game. I don't see flipping it as useful at the moment especially without any knowledge of what its picks were.

[Kingmaker]

Sorry, but I had a pet die today and I'm not feeling up to dealing with you all at the moment. I'll be back tomorrow.

It's all good man, real life comes first. It's why I'm not able to post what I wanted to post yet, don't even got the time right now to post the full length of it all.

__________________________________________________________________________________

So my reasons for TR'ing GuiltyLion and TheBrie has to do with their play and attitude thus far in the game. Not because of my table. My table just helps further increase the chances of me being correct on those reads and thus less doubt in them.

VOTE: Vung - There's a good chance this slot is scum and it'd at least free up the mod from finding a replacement. The only other one I'd be willing to lynch is Kingmaker at the moment. Everyone else I'd rather have 7 more days to sort better for the second lynch.

Really? After basing all your game plan on this, making tables and threatening(and voting) other people because of this mechanic you're suggesting we should lynch one person whose picks we don't know, who hasn't posted even one post yet, who will be probably replaced even before first deadine hits - because they might flip scum due to

pure luck

? Don't you even have

one

scum read you'd rather vote?

I can't see any ways to justify this play coming from town, I really can't.

[Vic Sage]

If I feel that someone is voting me is town, I want to attempt to change that.
Overall, Comm will be louder than you but as I'm not confident there I want to sort first before trying to reason with him. Town gain nothing if I let me town reads just call me Scum as the real Scum then just get a day 1 coast.

My point here is don't tunnel me. Right now you seem more focused on me and Doggo than all the players.
Why would I be mod killed?

1. I'm not voting you. And tbh, even if I decided to stop voting DD, I'd still probably not be voting you.

2. Point. Your town reads calling you scum does really suck. However, if you're town there are more productive things to be doing with your time than arguing with me over a weak tonal read. Like, for example, trying to read other players and solve the game. I'm not weirded out by you trying to convince me you're town. I'm weirded out by the amount of effort you're putting into debunking what is in all honesty a page 3 read.

3. I'm very clearly not tunneled on you. I'm of the opinion that you're more likely to be scum than town, but I am in no way sold on that. I think DD is probably scum. I'm considering GL's thoughts on CK. I'm actively ignoring Brie because I want to see what she says without my input and what she pushes. I'm not scumhunting vung because there's literally no point in that atm. I'm not prodding GL or King because I think the odds of them being scum are vanishingly low. And that's... Everyone. So don't worry, I'm not going to lose track of a name in my deathtunnel on the person I'm not even voting in an 8 player game.

4. Well, considering you're at L-3, I think that asking me who I'm going to go after if you flip town points to you being about to do something to get yourself modkilled, possibly while confirming DD (my stronger read) to be town. I'm not sure why you would do that, as frankly it seems really stupid, but that's pretty much the only way I can see you flipping town without significantly more to go on than what I have right now.

In other news, KM should probably get out of my head, it's dangerous in there.

DD appears to be missing the point of my problem with them, so I'm going to spell it out, with a dramatic retelling of page one.

Spoiler: A Night in the Theater

"CommKnight's obvscum!" - AP
"Hey guys, I have a great strategy for what we as town should do to win this game!" - CK
"Hey guys, I have a great strategy for what we as town should do to win this game! This time with a link to another game where it happened!" - GL
"Here's a pretty chart of all the possibilities!" - CK
"JINX!" - CK
"Wow, this game looks cool." - S&C, following outlined plan
"I have another cool chart" - GL
"Oooh. Pretty charts!" - DD, ignoring the reason behind the charts, the claim of optimal townplay, the rest of the posts of the people making the charts, and not even giving a reason behind that.
"I'mma follow the plan" - AP
"Your plan is flawed" - The beautiful and intelligent one in the group
...
3 votes for vic for not following plan
...
"Wait, why are there charts?" - DD.

I'd expect DD town to have asked about the mechanic when he first jumped into the thread, saw a bunch of charts and posts about an optimal town plan he DIDN'T (supposedly) understand, and took the time to write a throwaway. Of course, there are other explanations, but DD still has yet to give me a satisfactory response.

Also worth noting, although only if one of the two ends up flipping scum: CK's ignoring DD but going after me hard for a much better stance.