Open 697: Tit for Tat GAME OVER SCUM WINS!

[Mulch]

UNVOTE:

[Mulch]

Towny

Kunk:

Spoiler:

53 is relatively towny, not a bad point regarding Twyin's post, and more importantly it shows intent to truly analyze as it's a rather subtle thing to pick up on. Can definitely follow them with it too. I also really like 77, specifically the part where he calls out Flubber for criticizing Guyy. Had the same reaction. Unfortunately finding Kunk to be a little bit of a dick trying to critcize all the naked posts but I suppose I can't call that AI. However, 102 I can't even follow his view on this one, Screen's comment was wholly NAI and an atrocious reason to place a vote on. Yet he redeems himself 123 by going above and beyond on this, showing he put effort into reading his ISO to see about this "reaction test." Sure, can come from scum but I think it's slightly villagery in the sense that he has intent to be thorough and not be surface level.

Sesq:

Spoiler:

Honestly I can very easily see Sesq in 107 thinking this because of that glaring red flag by Kunk, lol. I know this is silly but I want to really really townread him for this purity

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Nulltown/Town Lean

Screenplay:

Spoiler:

72 from Screenplay is sort of on the surface scummy but honestly not something scum would do. I've been burned with this in the past but I just don't see scum sheeping someone so blatantly with little reasoning. The brutal honesty in 138 and139 is refreshing but I don't follow 138 at all, lol. He just made a relatively towny post. Unfortuantely this level of confidence seems to match his meta. 162 is just pure townyness .

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Null

Wavemode:

Spoiler:

50 matches my thoughts and55 literally exactly what I was thinking. However, 60 feels out of place as a reaction. It was an implied defense of his vote when nobody was really pressuring him anyway.

Flubber:

Spoiler:

92 at first glance seemed really bad and reachy but I suppose I can follow this cause Guy didn't vote at the end of his readslist.

Kop:

Spoiler:

100 is like objetively wrong in the wagonomics and it's a struggle for me to see how he can have such confidence in him being town that he is already basically doing a full on pre flip on opportunistic wolves. Sure, it's possible he can think that he's town for the wagon, but this level of confidence dosen't match the gamestate. I do like how he disagrees with a point though without calling it scummy. You would be surprised how town-based that is in general. I feel like I'm missing some of his posts though that may be significant, so might have to go back on them.

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Nullscum/Scum Lean

Guyy:

Spoiler:

The reads in 89 seem relatively forced, especially because Twyin and Raya are in his townreads which makes no sense. They've been far and away the scummiest so far imo and it's strange that he has this PoV. Gotta see his reasoning. And no vote too! 97 is legitimately scummy or a severe misconception bc I could follow his case on him not voting at the end of his paragraph and it didn't seem unreasonable to vote. The weird emphasis on him unvoting dosen't make much sense. 128 is another post where I just have a clash of perspectives, how can you buy that shit, I don't get it lol

Commknight:

Spoiler:

121 is like scum 101, almost wanna snap vote him at this point for this. Will hold on to crucifying him until I get an explanation, though.

Raya:

Spoiler:

54 is bothersome. He says he agrees with the post before but dosen't back it up with a vote and instead leaves his vote on the rvs vote from very early. 86 is just something so obvious to point out, again I can see from a village PoV but is something wolves can easily push as well.

Twyin:

Spoiler:

29 is the first serious post of the game and is a massive reach. I also wanna scumread 61 too just for scumreading someone for anti town behavior but I know this is probably a playstyle difference . 73 is a super obvious point he's poking at with Screen. I guess? I can see town thinking that too, but it's slightly opportunistic.

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Scum

Blue:

Spoiler:

Post 67 is honestly not a bad vote in general (volume reads of little scumhunting) but not something I can really see at this early stage in the game. Pretty bad reason to vote here, not neccecarily scummy.

@smoothblue

, what was towny about 89? This is one post I definitely need clarification on. And 159 is so bad and nothing really scummy at all from Sesq. He hasn't been anymore self centered than anyone here

VOTE: Blue

[Srceenplay]

Town here <3

Ill read up tmrw

1 hour later.

Towny

Kunk:

Spoiler:

53 is relatively towny, not a bad point regarding Twyin's post, and more importantly it shows intent to truly analyze as it's a rather subtle thing to pick up on. Can definitely follow them with it too. I also really like 77, specifically the part where he calls out Flubber for criticizing Guyy. Had the same reaction. Unfortunately finding Kunk to be a little bit of a dick trying to critcize all the naked posts but I suppose I can't call that AI. However, 102 I can't even follow his view on this one, Screen's comment was wholly NAI and an atrocious reason to place a vote on. Yet he redeems himself 123 by going above and beyond on this, showing he put effort into reading his ISO to see about this "reaction test." Sure, can come from scum but I think it's slightly villagery in the sense that he has intent to be thorough and not be surface level.

Sesq:

Spoiler:

Honestly I can very easily see Sesq in 107 thinking this because of that glaring red flag by Kunk, lol. I know this is silly but I want to really really townread him for this purity

______________________________________________________________

Nulltown/Town Lean

Screenplay:

Spoiler:

72 from Screenplay is sort of on the surface scummy but honestly not something scum would do. I've been burned with this in the past but I just don't see scum sheeping someone so blatantly with little reasoning. The brutal honesty in 138 and139 is refreshing but I don't follow 138 at all, lol. He just made a relatively towny post. Unfortuantely this level of confidence seems to match his meta. 162 is just pure townyness .

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Null

Wavemode:

Spoiler:

50 matches my thoughts and55 literally exactly what I was thinking. However, 60 feels out of place as a reaction. It was an implied defense of his vote when nobody was really pressuring him anyway.

Flubber:

Spoiler:

92 at first glance seemed really bad and reachy but I suppose I can follow this cause Guy didn't vote at the end of his readslist.

Kop:

Spoiler:

100 is like objetively wrong in the wagonomics and it's a struggle for me to see how he can have such confidence in him being town that he is already basically doing a full on pre flip on opportunistic wolves. Sure, it's possible he can think that he's town for the wagon, but this level of confidence dosen't match the gamestate. I do like how he disagrees with a point though without calling it scummy. You would be surprised how town-based that is in general. I feel like I'm missing some of his posts though that may be significant, so might have to go back on them.

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Nullscum/Scum Lean

Guyy:

Spoiler:

The reads in 89 seem relatively forced, especially because Twyin and Raya are in his townreads which makes no sense. They've been far and away the scummiest so far imo and it's strange that he has this PoV. Gotta see his reasoning. And no vote too! 97 is legitimately scummy or a severe misconception bc I could follow his case on him not voting at the end of his paragraph and it didn't seem unreasonable to vote. The weird emphasis on him unvoting dosen't make much sense. 128 is another post where I just have a clash of perspectives, how can you buy that shit, I don't get it lol

Commknight:

Spoiler:

121 is like scum 101, almost wanna snap vote him at this point for this. Will hold on to crucifying him until I get an explanation, though.

Raya:

Spoiler:

54 is bothersome. He says he agrees with the post before but dosen't back it up with a vote and instead leaves his vote on the rvs vote from very early. 86 is just something so obvious to point out, again I can see from a village PoV but is something wolves can easily push as well.

Twyin:

Spoiler:

29 is the first serious post of the game and is a massive reach. I also wanna scumread 61 too just for scumreading someone for anti town behavior but I know this is probably a playstyle difference . 73 is a super obvious point he's poking at with Screen. I guess? I can see town thinking that too, but it's slightly opportunistic.

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Scum

Blue:

Spoiler:

Post 67 is honestly not a bad vote in general (volume reads of little scumhunting) but not something I can really see at this early stage in the game. Pretty bad reason to vote here, not neccecarily scummy.

@smoothblue

, what was towny about 89? This is one post I definitely need clarification on. And 159 is so bad and nothing really scummy at all from Sesq. He hasn't been anymore self centered than anyone here

VOTE: Blue

Lol.

At least you are learning to read me.

A feel like your Kunk and Twyin reads are similar but they are on opposite ends of the list.

[TywinL]

@Smooth, the bolded is pretty much why I am townreading Raya so far.

Tywin,
I asked you to elaborate. I understood from the previous posts why you would agree with it, but I also indicated that Raya could just as easily have been inactive/not enough time to respond/scum ignoring pressure.

I'll make it clear for you this time. In your own words, why do you believe Raya is town rather than just ignoring the thread?

Question for you, why was I required to go into detail about my town read on Raya and answer questions about it but kunstar gets an ez pass? (even though kunstar was the one that wrote a wall about his Raya town read in the first place)

VOTE: Sesq

I'm down for a Sesq lynch today.

His content is very self-centered, concerned. He isn't exactly playing to find scum but playing as if others are trying to bait him.
He isn't going to provide any detailed reads from what I can see, and he isn't hunting.

I don't believe CommKnights reasoning is correct, regarding no wagon = scum. It is concerning to bring up the setup and how everyone should be playing this early into the game. This establishes a leadership role, which he has already exploited in the "slip" and then in this post.

In my opinion, leadership roles are used by players who;
1. have a ton of experience in the game
2. trying to divert town to non-mafia targets

Going to give CommKight the benefit of the doubt here, but duly noted.

I don't think Sesq is really scum, he seems more of trolling-town to me.

[TywinL]

I like Mulch's entrance, but I disagree with some of his reads but that's just me.

[TywinL]

@Mulch, how is Srceenplay's jump onto the guuy wagon not scummy and opportunistic as fuck? And how is 138 and 139 "brutally honest"? And the fact that 168 pings town for you is worrisome.

[wavemode]

@Mod - I'm V/LA until Tuesday, 9/5

[guyy]

@mulch

i'm honestly not convinced i'm right about either flubber or commknight

i realize it's possible town!flubber is just misreading me in the same way it's possible i'm doing the same. i don't want to encourage a death tunnel because imo those are generally detrimental to town for a variety of reasons. i'd rather maintain the ability to interact with him in a constructive way regardless of his alignment because that is more conducive to better info for town

for commknight, i buy his explanation for now. i like the content and discussion he's created, even if no one else does. i can see this coming from either alignment though, so i'm fine with people scum reading him atm. what ultimately pushes him closer into town territory for me is how much everyone else rejects what he says

[Mulch]

A feel like your Kunk and Twyin reads are similar but they are on opposite ends of the list.

Not really. Tywin had problems going serious early game with reachy pushes and opportunistic statements, and pushed on one of those obvious things that both dumb villagers and wolves could push on with your sheep comment. Nothing major but I also haven't seen any of their posts stand out, either. I don't want to do volume reads this early but he does seem to be blending in as well.

On the other hand, I really like 77 for Kunk, in which they match my thoughts there and I thought was a really valid point, and 53/123 show an extreme level of in depth scumhunting. Now, good scum can emulate that effort but the dedication is more than most of this game has done, and it shows they are at least invested in what they think, something very hard to fake.

[Mulch]

@Mulch, how is Srceenplay's jump onto the guuy wagon not scummy and opportunistic as fuck? And how is 138 and 139 "brutally honest"?

It's opportunistic in the most basic sense of the word, but in reality it really ins't. Scum usually aren't that audacious to blatantly proclaim that they are sheeping without a reason. I mean, it could be scum. But there is a high chance it isn't, mostly just based on experience. 139 just shows pure openness and a severe lack of caring how they are perceived (this is a good thing) with calling out a scumteam that early.

[Mulch]

And the fact that 168 pings town for you is worrisome.

Quote me where I say that?

[Mulch]

i buy his explanation for now

Here's the big thing-

Where did he actually explain it, lol

and also, why do you buy it?

[Mulch]

what ultimately pushes him closer into town territory for me is how much everyone else rejects what he says

This is flawed logic. It's an easy mistake to make but a lot of people here have been basing town and scumreads just on how quick they are voted or how much the town as a whole is reacting to their statements. Remember, we have 12, they have 3. The vast majority of peopl ehere are town, and it's not out of the question for scum to townsided/bus/distance in situations as well. Town cohesion is one of the most important things to have in order to guarantee a victory, so if we all agree on something, we should be going along with it, and not assuming that it's wrong and scum are jumping on the ideas.

[Sesq]

what about a kop lynch?

nah

also im not "trolling", please stop these erroneous assumptions;

[kunkstar7]

You know what? I think I want a Commknight lynch over a srceenplay one. I'm analysing Mulch's reads (later on in this post) and his points on srceenplay made me relook at srceenplay.

I maintain my position that the blind sheep is a null identifier. #101 is still too emotional of a reaction and he doesn't provide any counter points, so just looks like deflection.

Plus I don't like it when there a people who are not voting. I would hate to be one of them.

Why srceenplay is concerned with appearances (specifically the location of the vote) is not really a town position, but meta could prove me misled here. I will say that so far srceenplay has been consistent with his vote, as from the vote in #138 onward in his iso has specifically focused on that vote, even if he is following up quite weakly, its still

something

I guess.

I'm a gut read player.
I reread and gave my gut reads. I'm horrible at giving reasons for them. Something I'm try to work on.

This bothers me because it's consistent with his play so far, and coupled with the above point about his vote makes sense. I just wish we could get more out of him rather than "gut" because without that "more" its hard to pin someone down on a read and hold them to consistency.

---

My Commknight read hinges wholely on his followup to being pressed on the "slip" comment. (which I think I figured out, #35 shows he meant that he thought guyy's confusion was a slip. If that was it why the hell do you not just own it??) Commknight backpedals into "reaction" territory, claiming to have information based on the reaction, but we get nothing. Skips straight to trying to discuss setup, which is - guess this - not player related, so continuing the dodge here. Then the awful wagon analysis where he sets up a 50/50,

but then proceeds to not even commit to it himself.

---

nobody is saying it's the ONLY thing we can talk about. so i don't understand trying to shut down that line of thinking

I think I've just seen enough games with PRs to come to the personal conclusion that Day 1 setup talk never pans out. People are going to do what they want based on their personal reads for N1. After N1 we actually have something to go off of. This is my PERSONAL experience, not a hill I'm going to die on, since I can see your side of the argument, even if I think it has a bit of holes on that side.

what ultimately pushes him closer into town territory for me is how much everyone else rejects what he says

So this post's wording threw me for a bit, but I get what you intended now so I'm gonna focus on this last bit that bugs me. If everyone else rejects then wouldn't it follow that its a town consensus that what he is saying is improper? It doesn't make sense to have a town read if the consensus of what he is saying is inherently scummy.

---

Mulch's reads:
Sesq: Don't understand this one, doesn't clarify my own opinion on sesq either.
srceenplay: see first part of post.
wavemode: Confusing wording, but what I get out of this is that Mulch agrees with #55 from wavemode. This means he find Tywin reachy, which is consistent with his Tywin read, so fine.
Flubbernugget: I agree with the general read Mulch got here, and flubber hasn't given much else.
kop: Seems a bit weird to me that Mulch calls out kop on the wagon analysis, but no mention at all in the Commknight read.
Tywin: Consistent with mentions throughout the other reads, ok.
Smoothblue: This is the most interesting read I think from Mulch. Pointing out something that's gone under the radar a bit. Smoothblue's #159 is weird because he points out two players doing things that can be from either point of view, but only gives the pass to Commknight.

Overall seems pretty consistent across everyone, and his nulls match up pretty well with my own reads.

@Mulch:

In what way do you think that Commknight's analysis is different from kop's? Also if you could clarify your read on sesq that'd be great. I think I'm getting into a place with sesq that I've done before, where a detrimental playstyle is distracting my abiltiy to read someone.

Unvote; Vote: Commknight.

[Srceenplay]

In post 129, Srceenplay wrote:
Plus I don't like it when there a people who are not voting. I would hate to be one of them.

Why srceenplay is concerned with appearances (specifically the location of the vote) is not really a town position, but meta could prove me misled here. I will say that so far srceenplay has been consistent with his vote, as from the vote in #138 onward in his iso has specifically focused on that vote, even if he is following up quite weakly, its still something I guess.

I was trying to be a smart ass. Wasn't trying to look good.

In post 168, Srceenplay wrote:
I'm a gut read player.
I reread and gave my gut reads. I'm horrible at giving reasons for them. Something I'm try to work on.

This bothers me because it's consistent with his play so far, and coupled with the above point about his vote makes sense. I just wish we could get more out of him rather than "gut" because without that "more" its hard to pin someone down on a read and hold them to consistency.

I did add to my read.

Ok. Trust my reads then.
ISO kunk just seems to me like a guy with to much information trying to make it fit.

Your first big post (don't remember number) felt like a lot for so early (page2?).
It gave me the impression that you already had information that you wanted to use to start a narrative.
Granted it could just be your playstyle.
That's why I asked people if they have played with you and can describe your playstyle.

[guyy]

i buy his explanation for now

Here's the big thing-

Where did he actually explain it, lol

and also, why do you buy it?

i just meant him saying the "slip" was a reaction test and the follow ups thereafter. as i said, you don't have to agree with the process of information gathering or the information actually gathered, but you can't really deny that he contributed something, even if you think it's useless or counter to town interests. i don't atm

what ultimately pushes him closer into town territory for me is how much everyone else rejects what he says

This is flawed logic. It's an easy mistake to make but a lot of people here have been basing town and scumreads just on how quick they are voted or how much the town as a whole is reacting to their statements. Remember, we have 12, they have 3. The vast majority of peopl ehere are town, and it's not out of the question for scum to townsided/bus/distance in situations as well. Town cohesion is one of the most important things to have in order to guarantee a victory, so if we all agree on something, we should be going along with it, and not assuming that it's wrong and scum are jumping on the ideas.

i see where you're coming from, but i think it's equally plausible that it's one (or two) scum leading and one (or no) scum jumping on the ideas

i also wouldn't say "we all agree on something" since many players iirc haven't responded to the situation with regards to commknight. it's actually 9 of us and 3 of them. it's possible all or no scum have commented on commknight.

as i said, i can see commknight as either alignment. if a commknight wagon looks promising, i would join it, even though i don't agree at present

i'm not necessarily assuming it's wrong. it just doesn't fit into my head as right

counter ideas/viewpoints are good for limiting town confbias. i'm willing to admit i could be wrong about commknight. i'd hope everyone else would do the same. i don't understand anyone being so sure his stances aren't genuine. that in itself is suspicious to me and is what is causing that thought process. i realize it's a relatively minor distinction but it's not simply or expressly town cohesion that's making me doubt things

[TywinL]

@Mulch, how is Srceenplay's jump onto the guuy wagon not scummy and opportunistic as fuck? And how is 138 and 139 "brutally honest"?

It's opportunistic in the most basic sense of the word, but in reality it really ins't. Scum usually aren't that audacious to blatantly proclaim that they are sheeping without a reason. I mean, it could be scum. But there is a high chance it isn't, mostly just based on experience. 139 just shows pure openness and a severe lack of caring how they are perceived (this is a good thing) with calling out a scumteam that early.

So you are basically saying that by Srceen being so opportunistic......he ended up not being opportunistic.

And the fact that 168 pings town for you is worrisome.

Quote me where I say that?

My bad, you said 162 and I mistyped 168. Caring about your appearance rather doing some scumhunting (during the time when the Srceen wagon was forming) is rather scummy imo. That is why I townread Raya because she was unscathed when the pressure was on her.

I am also willing to lynch CommKnight today as well.

[Flubbernugget]

I like mulch's catch up but the town read is really bad

[Flubbernugget]

Town read on screen play, sorry.

[guyy]

wait

VOTE: tywin

you're right mulch

[guyy]

where are kop and raya

[Mulch]

Oh god I completely forgot about this game. Will catch up tmrw wanted some real time stuff but oh well

[Kop]

On a weekend away, will catch up tomorrow when I'm back in the world of the living and not massively hungover.

[Raya36]

Sorry, busy past couple of days

I'm worried that she doesn't seem to care about anything but 116

Who are you referring to with this?

"What do they tell us?" you may ask. (One is that Screenplay is a secret double voter???) Well first of all they tell us 9/12 people were involved on the 2 wagons. I can believe 2 scum would be involved between the two, but one of them definitely tried to avoid the wagons and that is their mistake. Who avoided the wagons?

01. wavemode
05. Sesq
07. guyy

^ These 3 avoided the wagons. Now I think guyy is town, his slip was a false-flag to gain some intel, as well as his wagon in constructing this analysis. That means I believe there's 100% without a fucking doubt in my mind at least one scum between Sesq and wave, that's a 50/50 right there. There's no way in hell all 3 scum can be found between both wagons D1. One of them definitely avoided it and that's their mistake. But I'm also willing to say that not 2 scum would've avoided both wagons, which means the other would more than likely be town if we flip scum with a lynch.

The problem with this is that it's completely based on the assumption that one scum did not vote for a wagon which may not be the case. There is no proof to back up your statement that one definitely is within Wavemode, Sesq and Guyy. You also keep saying "that's there mistake" which implies that it is something scum would not want to do which makes it seem even less likely this is the case. Plus I'm not willing to take the risk of the "50/50" and mislynching then "the other must be scum" and mislynching again because there is nothing solid about this.