Newbie 1826 Basketball Game Over

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Post Post #1650 (ISO) » Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:05 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

@NSG


1. If I was so worried about UCV changing his mind despite there being no sign of it, why would I even enter the day with the plan of bussing Thor in the first place? It makes no sense.

2. I want you to explain your read on UCV because you are deliberately avoiding doing so, and believe it or not I'm still actually trying to sort you and Thor as I'm still not entirely convinced you're his partner (mainly due to Thor's less than inspiring play). I'm puzzled as to how you can be so convinced on your read (despite lack of explanation) to the point that you won't even consider it might be me that is Town and him that is scum. My only conclusion is that you're his partner who put all her eggs in the 'UCV is Town' basket, or else this is the worst case of conbiasing I have ever witnessed (thinking about it, possibly joint-worst - I once played as scum where the town cop lied about investigating me as not-guilty as he was so convinced I was Town).

3. Ok, from the evidence we have in-thread there has been no sign of you doubting your UCV read and there has been no sign that you might reconsider your read on my slot. For the reasons I detailed in #2, I find this bizarre.
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Post Post #1651 (ISO) » Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:22 pm

Post by northsidegal »

In post 1650, Luca Blight wrote:
@NSG


1. If I was so worried about UCV changing his mind despite there being no sign of it, why would I even enter the day with the plan of bussing Thor in the first place? It makes no sense.
there are a lot of answers to this question and while not every one of them may be correct, to imply that there isn't an answer and thus the idea is absurd is not a valid point. for one, it could simply be that it was only after we got into the day and you had already cast suspicion on thor that it became clear to you that it would require ucv keeping his read on you consistent for you to win. after all, if events had played out differently and i had been the one townreading you instead of ucv, the plan would have worked out completely fine, with you lynching thor today and you and me lynching ucv tomorrow. i'm not even saying that you were "so worried about ucv changing his mind", i'm saying that somewhere during the day it became apparent to you that your plan gambled upon it and so you changed the strategy. it probably wasn't something you even thought of at the start of the day. you're asking me to explain something that happened at the start of the day within the context of events during the middle of the day.
2. I want you to explain your read on UCV because you are deliberately avoiding doing so, and believe it or not I'm still actually trying to sort you and Thor as I'm still not entirely convinced you're his partner (mainly due to Thor's less than inspiring play). I'm puzzled as to how you can be so convinced on your read (despite lack of explanation) to the point that you
won't even consider it might be me that is Town and him that is scum.
My only conclusion is that you're his partner who put all her eggs in the 'UCV is Town' basket, or else this is the worst case of conbiasing I have ever witnessed (thinking about it, possibly joint-worst - I once played as scum where the town cop lied about investigating me as not-guilty as he was so convinced I was Town).

3. Ok, from the evidence we have in-thread there has been no sign of you doubting your UCV read and there has been no sign that you might reconsider your read on my slot. For the reasons I detailed in #2, I find this bizarre.
did you even read anything that i said? i
do
consider things and i have considered that. just because i come to different conclusions than you doesn't mean i don't consider things. again, i don't post everything that i'm thinking in thread, but i am still thinking through things.
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Post Post #1652 (ISO) » Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:33 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

1. That is some reachy shit, surely you can see that? You're basically saying I made a plan of bussing Thor and getting UCV on my side, and then despite the plan going perfectly I get cold feet and ditch it just in case UCV might happen to change his mind in the future, even though there is no sign of that happening. Do you not think I would have considered what was needed to achieve victory before making the game-defining decision to bus my partner? You're basically saying just because there is some slim chance I could have an ulterior motive, my point isn't valid. You could literally say the same about any point every made in this game - you can always twist things to suit your agenda/what you want to believe.

2. Did you even read my #3? It's no good saying you've been considering something if there is nothing to back it up - we can only go on what we read in-thread.

Perhaps you can walk me through your thought process behind considering both me and UCV as scum before arriving at your conclusion that UCV must be Town and me scum?
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Post Post #1653 (ISO) » Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:56 pm

Post by UC Voyager »

i will make some posts tomorrow. im little busy atm
so...i don't get enough sleep
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Post Post #1654 (ISO) » Wed Nov 15, 2017 7:57 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Votecount 4.04Image

UC Voyager (2)

Thor665 (2)

Not Voting (1)
, ,

Day Four deadline is Saturday November 18th, 11 PM PST. (expired on 2017-11-18 21:00:00)


Apparenty I can’t read a calendar. Deadline should have been 18th not 16th, countdown clock now fixed. Apologies for any confusion.


With 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch!
[/size]
Show
http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #1655 (ISO) » Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:10 pm

Post by Toto »

Luca why is Thor town?
just because you get evil player role doesn't mean you are a evil person at HEART - KainTepes!!!
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Post Post #1656 (ISO) » Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:14 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

Toto I'm not sure why you're asking that as I've never been arguing for Thor being Town - I'm not convinced yet he isn't UCV's partner.

I want UCV lynched today as I know for a fact he's scum, and then the opportunity to probe both NSG and Thor Tomorrow to work out who is the best bet of being his partner.
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Post Post #1657 (ISO) » Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:16 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

You actually asked me the same question not long ago and I gave you this answer:
In post 1525, Luca Blight wrote:Off the top of my head the only reasons I can see for townreading Thor are as follows:

1) He wasn't willing to appease the conf town - his comment that he wants to lynch his number one scumread instead of merely trying to survive another day seemed kind of genuine.

2) The fact I know UCV is scum and Thor has been pushing his lynch relentlessly since the start of D1. I'm still reluctant to accept this means he isn't UVC's partner, but it reflects well on him compared to NSG's stance.

I will look more into Thor Tomorrow if we're both still alive, but UCV is today's lynch.
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Post Post #1658 (ISO) » Thu Nov 16, 2017 6:25 am

Post by Toto »

Thanks. I’m sorry Im taking so long to make this call.

Clemency always lurks regardless of alignment. And UC Voyager looks pretty scummy in all his games. Its not just newbness. So I have no way to read them.

The only persons I can possibly try to read are luca/nsg/thor

Thor + Luca looks like scum teathre give how much effort you spent arguing definitions.


I’ve been asking in many possible ways to Thor to help me read him better by engaging nsg or you. Maybe he has tried to do this but Ive missed that effort in between the lines. So my guess is Thor chose to vote ucv and refuses to collaborate to deny town information. He is pretty good scum and his tone and way to sort people is not different from his scum games.

Luca my main problem with you was you went from thor bloodlust to do a 180 after you voted. I can explain this by you voting Thor because your bus plan was working, but then realized voting in that position was a mistake.

NSG has a posting tone I find a bit convoluted and I need to check her town games to make sure is just her posting style. I dont know how to explain it but her posts feel too formal maybe? Or too well redacted?
just because you get evil player role doesn't mean you are a evil person at HEART - KainTepes!!!
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Post Post #1659 (ISO) » Thu Nov 16, 2017 6:31 am

Post by UC Voyager »

I have seen NSG post about tone as town.
NSG has played with me the most out of the people here. I have only seen her flip scum a few times so I'm not so sure on her scum play.

This is the first time I have seen Thor in a game. So I'm not sure how to meta read him

I have only seen Luca as town and he is generally a lot better at coming up with cases.
so...i don't get enough sleep
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Post Post #1660 (ISO) » Thu Nov 16, 2017 6:38 am

Post by Luca Blight »

I'm not sure why my '180' can only be explained by apparently realising my voting position was a mistake (do you think I'd vote so carelessly as scum? Come on) but can't be explained by what I already said - that I realised Thor/NSG could not be a scumteam as they were setting themselves up for a fall: if I had continued as I were and Thor was lynched, NSG would have followed the next day. It was too easy to be true.

I'm starting to get a sinking feeling that no matter what I say I'm not going to be able to convince you on this. I also originally thought UCV was Town based on meta, and I realised he wasn't only based on how the game was playing out.

I really don't believe my play makes sense as scum here but that's for you to decide, Toto.
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Post Post #1661 (ISO) » Thu Nov 16, 2017 6:52 am

Post by Luca Blight »

Let's say as scum I vote Thor without thinking and them am like 'shit, this will clear UCV/NSG! What have I done!', surely I'd have mulled it over and been like 'Oh wait, UCV is my meal ticket here, as long as he's on side then all's good'.

Do you really think I would have thought 'Shit, abandon plan! All missiles fire at UCV! Go go go!'?

Basically Toto it feels like you're so reluctant to scumread UCV based on meta (as I said I understand this as I made the same mistake) that you're willing to twist the situation any way possible into me being scum - even though for me to be scum I'd have to be playing wacky as f*ck.
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Post Post #1662 (ISO) » Thu Nov 16, 2017 7:07 am

Post by Luca Blight »

If you want it, I can provide recent meta of myself, as town, pushing a player's lynch non-stop but then suddenly doing a complete 180 to actually townread that player based on the game state.
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Post Post #1663 (ISO) » Thu Nov 16, 2017 7:26 am

Post by UC Voyager »

In post 1661, Luca Blight wrote:Let's say as scum I vote Thor without thinking and them am like 'shit, this will clear UCV/NSG! What have I done!', surely I'd have mulled it over and been like 'Oh wait, UCV is my meal ticket here, as long as he's on side then all's good'.

Do you really think I would have thought 'Shit, abandon plan! All missiles fire at UCV! Go go go!'?

Basically Toto it feels like you're so reluctant to scumread UCV based on meta (as I said I understand this as I made the same mistake) that you're willing to twist the situation any way possible into me being scum - even though for me to be scum I'd have to be playing wacky as f*ck.
Yes you would. You were thinking it would be the easier move.

I have posted my scum game, so you can try to see my scum meta. I actually want to read over it to see what I find
so...i don't get enough sleep
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Post Post #1664 (ISO) » Thu Nov 16, 2017 7:27 am

Post by Luca Blight »

In fact I will share it as I believe it bears resemblance to the situation we have here. In the game I will show you, I was the main player pushing MathBlade's lynch, but basically when I realised there was no resistance to said wagon and Math wasn't even defending himself that it didn't make sense for them to be scum. Math actually became easily my strongest townread and about half of the Town went on to suspect me of being their partner as a result.

Spoiler: Initial pushing/voting
In post 729, Luca Blight wrote:Actually I feel comfortable enough putting Math at L-1 for now.

VOTE: Math

Needless to say no-one should hammer without first declaring intent.

If Math is convincing enough in his defence I think the only person I would consider switching to today would probably be Bory.
In post 732, Luca Blight wrote:I disagree that Ach asking about powers must mean he has one - esecially given your version of events which would mean this results in him being scum roleblocker. Why would a newbie so openly ask about a power when they are a scum PR, especially so early in the game? It seems counter-intuative to me, and it's a real reach that most of your theory is built upon.

I also don't like how Math is lining up Brafin for the lynch if Chip flips Town - Brafin also pushed Para's lynch after his claim and did the same towards Chip. As you accept Para as confirmed Town, surely you should already have a big FOS towards Brafin for the same reason? If you're the doctor, Math, then now really is the time to hard-claim. I highly doubt it, however.

And your reads list at the end is terrible and ill-considered. You say '
Luca seems to follow the wagon of the day
' - is that purely because I voted you? When I pushed Chip he wasn't the wagon of the day, and when I voted Brafin likewise. The wagon of the day when I replaced in was clearly Tor (at least according to Brafin) who I haven't voted at all.

I'm fine with keeping my vote where it is.
In post 733, Luca Blight wrote:And your reasoning for Sheep being 'probably town' doesn't make sense.

You also said he was 'obvtown' earlier but have never explained why, no matter how often you're asked.
In post 734, Luca Blight wrote:Here's an example of Math saying something and promising to explain later, but failing to fulfill that promise:

Spoiler:
In post 141, MathBlade wrote:
In post 137, Jodaxq wrote:After looking through his ISO I've got a very bad feeling about sheepsaysmeep. He's checked a lot of the scum boxes, especially since we seem to be reading Paradise as scum. Sheepsaysmeep hasn't contributed many of his own reads, but he has piggybacked onto the reads of others (unless they have involved Paradise as scum), he has downplayed suspicion on Paradise, and he jumped at the only other player who has raised any suspicion. He has done this all while putting in a bunch of a fluff posts that have made him seem active.

Sheepsaysmeep hasn't yet contributed anything unique to this game. In post 33, post 91, post 119, and post 122 he asks people directly for their reads without providing anything on his own. For comparison, he has just as many posts where he talks about any of his own reads, and nearly all of them are reactionary. Post 55 is the only post, other than jumping on my bandwagon (more on this later in this post), where he talks about seeing anyone as scummy. The one line of reasoning doesn't strike me as a strong read, but yet this is the one "you may be scum" post he's made, and it was made after our most experienced player had already quoted Chip and asked about his vote for me. In post 113 he mainly piggybacks off of James' easy-to-digest list. He also doesn't talk at all about who he thinks as scummy, only whom he reads (or knows) are town. I find the line "kind of looks like sheeping off of other people's reads" very funny considering the argument I'm making. His one unique read in this post is, of course, a "gut town read" on Paradise. Post 37 is the one post where he posts his proactive reads. One of them is defending Paradise and the other one seems to me like you're trying to buddy up to most experienced player and get him off your trail. Another post that concerns me on the Paradise issue is post 67, where you downplay Paradise's action "as a small thought for future reference." Also note that in post 87 and in post 113 he ends the post with something along the lines of "I'll post more later" and then doesn't follow through.

There are a couple things that bother me about his vote for me. In post 37, which again is the only post where he makes any proactive reads, he claims to have not seen anything significant from anyone outside of MathBlade and his buddy Paradise. However, in literally the next post, post 38, he piggybacks onto MathBlade's read and declares that my behavior has been scummy enough to warrant a vote. This is just an odd inconsistency that leads me to believe, as he said in post 31, "looks like a blatant bandwagon to me." I think he saw that others saw my initial aphix vote as suspicious and got a little excited that a townie was the first one to fall under scrutiny, especially since one of the players suspecting me was the experienced player that I think he wants to buddy up to.
Yes, I get that I did the same thing, but I explained why and have switched my vote to a real read. Sheep, on the other hand, has kept his vote for me long after many others have moved on. I think this is because there hasn't been a non-Paradise bandwagon to jump onto.

So many of his posts are just general statements that contribute nothing. Post 41, post 73, post 76, post 87, and post 125 all contribute nothing. I don't necessarily think these things are particularly scummy themselves, but I think he is making them to try and seem like he's active and participating when in reality, as I've pointed out above, he's really not.

I also find it interesting that the one time someone scumread him, he got a little defensive. This happened in post 71. Well here you go, sheepsaysmeep, I scumread you and backed it up with a little evidence. What do you have to say?
While I like the effort put here I disagree with it and I still think you are scum.

Will explain when it isn't midnight.
He never did explain why he thought Jod was scum, nor why he disagreed with her post. The next time he even mentions her is in his God awful post where he throws shade on most of the Town, and then in he suddenly has a '
light town lean
' on Jod, without ever explaining that massive jump in his reading of her.
In post 735, Luca Blight wrote:And since his 272 where he said he had a light town lean on Jod, he never mentioned her again until his post just above where he says she 'feels icky' - again unexplained.

Complete inconsistency in his reading of Jod this game, none of which has been explained.
In post 750, Luca Blight wrote:
In [url=/viewtopic.php?p=9704658#p9704658]post 748[/url], James Brafin wrote:I'm reading math as town for a few reasons:
1. He's trying really hard to scumhunt. Maybe this is just noob thinking, but it seems to me that scum would appear to be scumhunting but not trying that hard.
2. He's never hopped all over the place and scumread everyone. (And yes, I'm realizing that that is scummy behavior that I've done. :( )
3. He's never shown any amount of high association with anyone. While non-association with one or two might be a scumread, I find it hard to believe that scum would NOT try and ally themselves with town players.
I haven't seen him trying 'really hard' to scumhunt. Number 2 is something any decent scum player would not do - if you scumread someone who is Town is gives them reason to suspect you back, and obviously scum want to avoid as much suspicion as possible. Number 3 is a bit of a null point as well - to openly try and buddy town players (especially at the IC in a Newb game) would in itself raise its own suspicion.
In post 775, Luca Blight wrote:I'd also like you to clear up your view on Jod, Math.

Why did you disagree with Jod in and why did you think she was scum at this point?

Why did this turn to a 'light town lean' in ?

Ans why did it change to her feeling 'icky' in ?
In post 812, Luca Blight wrote:
In post 810, MathBlade wrote:
In post 807, Luca Blight wrote:
In post 804, MathBlade wrote:
In post 794, Luca Blight wrote:
In post 791, MathBlade wrote:
In post 788, sheepsaysmeep wrote:@mb
saying im not getting attention isnt a good reason to make me your strongest townread
scum like to stay hidden
ive just been inactive recently so i should be at null not town
Again just call it gut if you like but you're Town pinging me.
How can you call him 'obvtown' based on a gut read?

Surely gut reads are by definition
not
obvious - because they can't be explained easily.
It kinda is.

Not a single person has mentioned a suspicion of sheep.

If sheep were scum one person no matter how ridiculed in a game this small would talk about the slot. Scum don't care about what sheep is posting so there are no Town or scum reads.

Because of how little attention sheep is getting it's almost like a group consensus sheep is town. This sometimes happens in games. It is a weird social convention that happens in games. In a large or a theme they'd need a poke but an active player like sheep with no attention is probably town.

Scum need to push a mislynch here and trying to push a not suspected player is harder.
Well, obviously someone has mentioned a suspicion of Sheep (you were just posting about it).

I think it's more a case of Sheep not looking as scummy as certain others, therefore he gets less attention. My slot has also not been suspected much this game for the same reasons.
No there really hasn't been. Penguin has been the first person to seriously mention something in a while. It's more of an ebb and flow thing. In contrast you have been up and then forgotten up and then forgotten. You have lots of little pings of suspicion.
Either way, I think it's a pretty absurd reason to say someone is obvtown.

It also doesn't really ring true as your 'obvtown' comment came immediately after Jod's case against Sheep.

It's like you townread him for not being suspected, despite the fact someone literally just made a post detailing their considerable suspicion of him.
In post 821, Luca Blight wrote:
In post 814, MathBlade wrote:I am not getting into a shitting contest with you.

And you're just not understanding me. Me repeating it will do no good.

And yes you're lynch shopping and I have faith Penguin will see it.

Bascially your explanation makes no sense and you know it.

And no I'm not '
lynch shopping
' - I've given valid reasons for everything I've done in this game, and your '
Luca follows the wagon of the day
' is complete lazy bullshit - I've been the main one pushing your wagon, as was the case with Brafin and Chip. The reasoning for suspecting all three of you I made patently clear.


Spoiler: Sudden 180/townreading Math
In post 855, Luca Blight wrote:UNVOTE:

I'll explain in a bit.
In post 857, Luca Blight wrote:I haven't had time to read much of the recent posts but I'll quickly explain why I unvoted.

In post 847, MathBlade wrote:
In post 845, Chip Butty wrote:
In post 837, MathBlade wrote:
In post 835, Chip Butty wrote:No problem. I'm not in a rush, but we need to be aware that it is less than 26 hours until night, so if for some reason we don't lynch MB, we need to decide on a new wagon and push it through pronto. I feel going ahead with this lynch is probably the best strategy now, but will wait for PA...
Toranga Toranga Toranga.

Picked it for you.
Lol you probably should take that quote out of your signature...
I enjoy my scum games.

I also enjoy my town ones. (Which this one is)

I just happen to be better as scum.
This felt kind of genuine to me and caused me to look at Math's meta, and he does seem to get wagoned a lot as Town while playing similarly to how he has here, whereas as scum he seems to do a bit better.

I thought at first Math was faking the whole '
Go Town
' thing and trying to play it extra cool, but I think scum at some point would have cracked here. Add to this the fact that I can't think of one legitimate partner for Math in this game and I no longer have confidence in this lynch.

VOTE: Bory

I like my vote a lot more here. My gut feeling is actually a Bory/Tor scumteam (I might get to the details of that later) but as I said earlier, Tor has given me some reassurance where Bory has given me none, and he needs to step up if he wants to get my vote off of him.
In post 911, Luca Blight wrote:Jod, we're not lynching Math today so if you want Bory instead of Tor, vote as such.
In post 1078, Luca Blight wrote:Sheep, Math was at L-1 for ages and was not even defending himself, nor was anyone defending him. He was accepting of his lynch - and while this could have been faked, I do think scum would have cracked and tried to save their skin at some point. Math is also a decent scum player - would he just sink quietly away to a D1 death as scum? I don't think so. Would he be lynched Day 1 in such circumstances as Town? From his meta, quite possibly. He said he is a better scum player than Town and I believe that.

I feel sure if I hadn't unvoted he would have been lynched.
In post 1079, Luca Blight wrote:And I think the partner thing is relevant - scum aren't going to allow their partner to be lynched on D1 if at all possible, and it's not like Math was in a position where he needed bussing - he looked scummy, but there were other targets that could easily have been pushed.

You could argue I might make sense as his partner as I saved him from being lynched, but obviously I know this isn't the case.
In post 1080, Luca Blight wrote:I also townread this a bit:
In post 858, MathBlade wrote:Luca there is t enough time for a Bory lynch.

That is a vanity wagon.

Toranga.

You scumread Toranga vote there.
Following my unvote of him, Math seems annoyed I chose to vote Bory over Tor.

His scumread of Tor feels genuine.
In post 1213, Luca Blight wrote:
In post 1174, Jodaxq wrote:I've thought about this a lot and I've come to a decision. UC Voyager has seemed very strange to me as I'm sure he has to everyone else, but I've looked through some of his other posts and he carries the same posting style (a lot of exclamation points, capitalizations, etc.) throughout all of his games. He is a pretty young guy and I think some of his immaturity shows through in his posting.
MathBlade is just oozing scum to me. Their posts just reek with manipulation and their interactions with Luca on D2 just have such a coordinated feel to them. The story of a scum MathBlade just makes so much sense, especially with Luca as a partner.
They pushed for Toranaga who is an experienced player who suspected them, but when they started to face resistance to a Toranaga lynch, Bory conveniently poked his head out and started suspecting them too.
Knowing Bory would be a much easier lynch do to his lurking, they pushed for his lynch
. Today, with only four needed to lynch, they pushed for Chip (who also started suspecting MathBlade and is also an experienced player) thinking (correctly) that I'd fall in line quickly due to my earlier suspicions. Now that I've continued to suspect them, they're setting up my possible lynch for tomorrow.
At the beginning of the game I talked about how I'm not afraid of putting myself out there, and that's still true. I don't want to be wrong, but I'm not afraid of it. I'm going to make a call here. I know if UC Voyager gets lynched and flips scum I'm likely next for this, but I truly believe that MathBlade is scum with Luca as the best possibility for his partner.

VOTE: MathBlade
I also want to point out the bolded isn't an accurate summary of what happened - Math wanted a Tor lynch and not a Bory one, despite the fact Bory had at that point suspected and been voting Math for some time. When I switched from Math to Bory, Math was annoyed at my switch - They still wanted a Tor lynch. Only when Bory stepped in at the end with his strange doc theory did Math actually approve of the Bory lynch over Tor - note at this point Math wasn't in danger of being lynched and had no reason to suddenly change opinion as scum.
In post 1223, Luca Blight wrote:Jod, from my point of view I find it highly unlikely Math is scum, and I guess if you knew I was Town you'd be more inclined to think the same? Your Mathscum theory seems to be based on him being my partner.

I was the one pushing Math's lynch on D1, and a couple of years ago I would have probably seen it through as I used to suffer from confbias myself, but my experience and rationality told me something wasn't right with the lynch. I could still be wrong and if I am then I've made a terrible mistake, but I trust my read on this one.

I know once you get into your head that x and y are scum it's really hard to take a step back and consider you might be wrong - this is what makes it hard for me to see if your behaviour is scummy or just a Townie who is confbiasing.
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Post Post #1665 (ISO) » Thu Nov 16, 2017 7:34 am

Post by UC Voyager »

Here is my meta scum....


As scum, I talk about statistics a lot. I make very small posts that look like they are useful . I come up with very step by step plans. Order of operations. Then I use my statistics to make a case.

A lot of this is assuming what i would do of that game didn't end when it did.
so...i don't get enough sleep
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Post Post #1666 (ISO) » Thu Nov 16, 2017 7:35 am

Post by UC Voyager »

In post 1664, Luca Blight wrote:In fact I will share it as I believe it bears resemblance to the situation we have here. In the game I will show you, I was the main player pushing MathBlade's lynch, but basically when I realised there was no resistance to said wagon and Math wasn't even defending himself that it didn't make sense for them to be scum. Math actually became easily my strongest townread and about half of the Town went on to suspect me of being their partner as a result.

Spoiler: Initial pushing/voting
In post 729, Luca Blight wrote:Actually I feel comfortable enough putting Math at L-1 for now.

VOTE: Math

Needless to say no-one should hammer without first declaring intent.

If Math is convincing enough in his defence I think the only person I would consider switching to today would probably be Bory.
In post 732, Luca Blight wrote:I disagree that Ach asking about powers must mean he has one - esecially given your version of events which would mean this results in him being scum roleblocker. Why would a newbie so openly ask about a power when they are a scum PR, especially so early in the game? It seems counter-intuative to me, and it's a real reach that most of your theory is built upon.

I also don't like how Math is lining up Brafin for the lynch if Chip flips Town - Brafin also pushed Para's lynch after his claim and did the same towards Chip. As you accept Para as confirmed Town, surely you should already have a big FOS towards Brafin for the same reason? If you're the doctor, Math, then now really is the time to hard-claim. I highly doubt it, however.

And your reads list at the end is terrible and ill-considered. You say '
Luca seems to follow the wagon of the day
' - is that purely because I voted you? When I pushed Chip he wasn't the wagon of the day, and when I voted Brafin likewise. The wagon of the day when I replaced in was clearly Tor (at least according to Brafin) who I haven't voted at all.

I'm fine with keeping my vote where it is.
In post 733, Luca Blight wrote:And your reasoning for Sheep being 'probably town' doesn't make sense.

You also said he was 'obvtown' earlier but have never explained why, no matter how often you're asked.
In post 734, Luca Blight wrote:Here's an example of Math saying something and promising to explain later, but failing to fulfill that promise:

Spoiler:
In post 141, MathBlade wrote:
In post 137, Jodaxq wrote:After looking through his ISO I've got a very bad feeling about sheepsaysmeep. He's checked a lot of the scum boxes, especially since we seem to be reading Paradise as scum. Sheepsaysmeep hasn't contributed many of his own reads, but he has piggybacked onto the reads of others (unless they have involved Paradise as scum), he has downplayed suspicion on Paradise, and he jumped at the only other player who has raised any suspicion. He has done this all while putting in a bunch of a fluff posts that have made him seem active.

Sheepsaysmeep hasn't yet contributed anything unique to this game. In post 33, post 91, post 119, and post 122 he asks people directly for their reads without providing anything on his own. For comparison, he has just as many posts where he talks about any of his own reads, and nearly all of them are reactionary. Post 55 is the only post, other than jumping on my bandwagon (more on this later in this post), where he talks about seeing anyone as scummy. The one line of reasoning doesn't strike me as a strong read, but yet this is the one "you may be scum" post he's made, and it was made after our most experienced player had already quoted Chip and asked about his vote for me. In post 113 he mainly piggybacks off of James' easy-to-digest list. He also doesn't talk at all about who he thinks as scummy, only whom he reads (or knows) are town. I find the line "kind of looks like sheeping off of other people's reads" very funny considering the argument I'm making. His one unique read in this post is, of course, a "gut town read" on Paradise. Post 37 is the one post where he posts his proactive reads. One of them is defending Paradise and the other one seems to me like you're trying to buddy up to most experienced player and get him off your trail. Another post that concerns me on the Paradise issue is post 67, where you downplay Paradise's action "as a small thought for future reference." Also note that in post 87 and in post 113 he ends the post with something along the lines of "I'll post more later" and then doesn't follow through.

There are a couple things that bother me about his vote for me. In post 37, which again is the only post where he makes any proactive reads, he claims to have not seen anything significant from anyone outside of MathBlade and his buddy Paradise. However, in literally the next post, post 38, he piggybacks onto MathBlade's read and declares that my behavior has been scummy enough to warrant a vote. This is just an odd inconsistency that leads me to believe, as he said in post 31, "looks like a blatant bandwagon to me." I think he saw that others saw my initial aphix vote as suspicious and got a little excited that a townie was the first one to fall under scrutiny, especially since one of the players suspecting me was the experienced player that I think he wants to buddy up to.
Yes, I get that I did the same thing, but I explained why and have switched my vote to a real read. Sheep, on the other hand, has kept his vote for me long after many others have moved on. I think this is because there hasn't been a non-Paradise bandwagon to jump onto.

So many of his posts are just general statements that contribute nothing. Post 41, post 73, post 76, post 87, and post 125 all contribute nothing. I don't necessarily think these things are particularly scummy themselves, but I think he is making them to try and seem like he's active and participating when in reality, as I've pointed out above, he's really not.

I also find it interesting that the one time someone scumread him, he got a little defensive. This happened in post 71. Well here you go, sheepsaysmeep, I scumread you and backed it up with a little evidence. What do you have to say?
While I like the effort put here I disagree with it and I still think you are scum.

Will explain when it isn't midnight.
He never did explain why he thought Jod was scum, nor why he disagreed with her post. The next time he even mentions her is in his God awful post where he throws shade on most of the Town, and then in he suddenly has a '
light town lean
' on Jod, without ever explaining that massive jump in his reading of her.
In post 735, Luca Blight wrote:And since his 272 where he said he had a light town lean on Jod, he never mentioned her again until his post just above where he says she 'feels icky' - again unexplained.

Complete inconsistency in his reading of Jod this game, none of which has been explained.
In post 750, Luca Blight wrote:
In [url=/viewtopic.php?p=9704658#p9704658]post 748[/url], James Brafin wrote:I'm reading math as town for a few reasons:
1. He's trying really hard to scumhunt. Maybe this is just noob thinking, but it seems to me that scum would appear to be scumhunting but not trying that hard.
2. He's never hopped all over the place and scumread everyone. (And yes, I'm realizing that that is scummy behavior that I've done. :( )
3. He's never shown any amount of high association with anyone. While non-association with one or two might be a scumread, I find it hard to believe that scum would NOT try and ally themselves with town players.
I haven't seen him trying 'really hard' to scumhunt. Number 2 is something any decent scum player would not do - if you scumread someone who is Town is gives them reason to suspect you back, and obviously scum want to avoid as much suspicion as possible. Number 3 is a bit of a null point as well - to openly try and buddy town players (especially at the IC in a Newb game) would in itself raise its own suspicion.
In post 775, Luca Blight wrote:I'd also like you to clear up your view on Jod, Math.

Why did you disagree with Jod in and why did you think she was scum at this point?

Why did this turn to a 'light town lean' in ?

Ans why did it change to her feeling 'icky' in ?
In post 812, Luca Blight wrote:
In post 810, MathBlade wrote:
In post 807, Luca Blight wrote:
In post 804, MathBlade wrote:
In post 794, Luca Blight wrote:
In post 791, MathBlade wrote:
In post 788, sheepsaysmeep wrote:@mb
saying im not getting attention isnt a good reason to make me your strongest townread
scum like to stay hidden
ive just been inactive recently so i should be at null not town
Again just call it gut if you like but you're Town pinging me.
How can you call him 'obvtown' based on a gut read?

Surely gut reads are by definition
not
obvious - because they can't be explained easily.
It kinda is.

Not a single person has mentioned a suspicion of sheep.

If sheep were scum one person no matter how ridiculed in a game this small would talk about the slot. Scum don't care about what sheep is posting so there are no Town or scum reads.

Because of how little attention sheep is getting it's almost like a group consensus sheep is town. This sometimes happens in games. It is a weird social convention that happens in games. In a large or a theme they'd need a poke but an active player like sheep with no attention is probably town.

Scum need to push a mislynch here and trying to push a not suspected player is harder.
Well, obviously someone has mentioned a suspicion of Sheep (you were just posting about it).

I think it's more a case of Sheep not looking as scummy as certain others, therefore he gets less attention. My slot has also not been suspected much this game for the same reasons.
No there really hasn't been. Penguin has been the first person to seriously mention something in a while. It's more of an ebb and flow thing. In contrast you have been up and then forgotten up and then forgotten. You have lots of little pings of suspicion.
Either way, I think it's a pretty absurd reason to say someone is obvtown.

It also doesn't really ring true as your 'obvtown' comment came immediately after Jod's case against Sheep.

It's like you townread him for not being suspected, despite the fact someone literally just made a post detailing their considerable suspicion of him.
In post 821, Luca Blight wrote:
In post 814, MathBlade wrote:I am not getting into a shitting contest with you.

And you're just not understanding me. Me repeating it will do no good.

And yes you're lynch shopping and I have faith Penguin will see it.

Bascially your explanation makes no sense and you know it.

And no I'm not '
lynch shopping
' - I've given valid reasons for everything I've done in this game, and your '
Luca follows the wagon of the day
' is complete lazy bullshit - I've been the main one pushing your wagon, as was the case with Brafin and Chip. The reasoning for suspecting all three of you I made patently clear.


Spoiler: Sudden 180/townreading Math
In post 855, Luca Blight wrote:UNVOTE:

I'll explain in a bit.
In post 857, Luca Blight wrote:I haven't had time to read much of the recent posts but I'll quickly explain why I unvoted.

In post 847, MathBlade wrote:
In post 845, Chip Butty wrote:
In post 837, MathBlade wrote:
In post 835, Chip Butty wrote:No problem. I'm not in a rush, but we need to be aware that it is less than 26 hours until night, so if for some reason we don't lynch MB, we need to decide on a new wagon and push it through pronto. I feel going ahead with this lynch is probably the best strategy now, but will wait for PA...
Toranga Toranga Toranga.

Picked it for you.
Lol you probably should take that quote out of your signature...
I enjoy my scum games.

I also enjoy my town ones. (Which this one is)

I just happen to be better as scum.
This felt kind of genuine to me and caused me to look at Math's meta, and he does seem to get wagoned a lot as Town while playing similarly to how he has here, whereas as scum he seems to do a bit better.

I thought at first Math was faking the whole '
Go Town
' thing and trying to play it extra cool, but I think scum at some point would have cracked here. Add to this the fact that I can't think of one legitimate partner for Math in this game and I no longer have confidence in this lynch.

VOTE: Bory

I like my vote a lot more here. My gut feeling is actually a Bory/Tor scumteam (I might get to the details of that later) but as I said earlier, Tor has given me some reassurance where Bory has given me none, and he needs to step up if he wants to get my vote off of him.
In post 911, Luca Blight wrote:Jod, we're not lynching Math today so if you want Bory instead of Tor, vote as such.
In post 1078, Luca Blight wrote:Sheep, Math was at L-1 for ages and was not even defending himself, nor was anyone defending him. He was accepting of his lynch - and while this could have been faked, I do think scum would have cracked and tried to save their skin at some point. Math is also a decent scum player - would he just sink quietly away to a D1 death as scum? I don't think so. Would he be lynched Day 1 in such circumstances as Town? From his meta, quite possibly. He said he is a better scum player than Town and I believe that.

I feel sure if I hadn't unvoted he would have been lynched.
In post 1079, Luca Blight wrote:And I think the partner thing is relevant - scum aren't going to allow their partner to be lynched on D1 if at all possible, and it's not like Math was in a position where he needed bussing - he looked scummy, but there were other targets that could easily have been pushed.

You could argue I might make sense as his partner as I saved him from being lynched, but obviously I know this isn't the case.
In post 1080, Luca Blight wrote:I also townread this a bit:
In post 858, MathBlade wrote:Luca there is t enough time for a Bory lynch.

That is a vanity wagon.

Toranga.

You scumread Toranga vote there.
Following my unvote of him, Math seems annoyed I chose to vote Bory over Tor.

His scumread of Tor feels genuine.
In post 1213, Luca Blight wrote:
In post 1174, Jodaxq wrote:I've thought about this a lot and I've come to a decision. UC Voyager has seemed very strange to me as I'm sure he has to everyone else, but I've looked through some of his other posts and he carries the same posting style (a lot of exclamation points, capitalizations, etc.) throughout all of his games. He is a pretty young guy and I think some of his immaturity shows through in his posting.
MathBlade is just oozing scum to me. Their posts just reek with manipulation and their interactions with Luca on D2 just have such a coordinated feel to them. The story of a scum MathBlade just makes so much sense, especially with Luca as a partner.
They pushed for Toranaga who is an experienced player who suspected them, but when they started to face resistance to a Toranaga lynch, Bory conveniently poked his head out and started suspecting them too.
Knowing Bory would be a much easier lynch do to his lurking, they pushed for his lynch
. Today, with only four needed to lynch, they pushed for Chip (who also started suspecting MathBlade and is also an experienced player) thinking (correctly) that I'd fall in line quickly due to my earlier suspicions. Now that I've continued to suspect them, they're setting up my possible lynch for tomorrow.
At the beginning of the game I talked about how I'm not afraid of putting myself out there, and that's still true. I don't want to be wrong, but I'm not afraid of it. I'm going to make a call here. I know if UC Voyager gets lynched and flips scum I'm likely next for this, but I truly believe that MathBlade is scum with Luca as the best possibility for his partner.

VOTE: MathBlade
I also want to point out the bolded isn't an accurate summary of what happened - Math wanted a Tor lynch and not a Bory one, despite the fact Bory had at that point suspected and been voting Math for some time. When I switched from Math to Bory, Math was annoyed at my switch - They still wanted a Tor lynch. Only when Bory stepped in at the end with his strange doc theory did Math actually approve of the Bory lynch over Tor - note at this point Math wasn't in danger of being lynched and had no reason to suddenly change opinion as scum.
In post 1223, Luca Blight wrote:Jod, from my point of view I find it highly unlikely Math is scum, and I guess if you knew I was Town you'd be more inclined to think the same? Your Mathscum theory seems to be based on him being my partner.

I was the one pushing Math's lynch on D1, and a couple of years ago I would have probably seen it through as I used to suffer from confbias myself, but my experience and rationality told me something wasn't right with the lynch. I could still be wrong and if I am then I've made a terrible mistake, but I trust my read on this one.

I know once you get into your head that x and y are scum it's really hard to take a step back and consider you might be wrong - this is what makes it hard for me to see if your behaviour is scummy or just a Townie who is confbiasing.
I was in that game
You didn't play the same play style you did here
so...i don't get enough sleep
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Post Post #1667 (ISO) » Thu Nov 16, 2017 4:34 pm

Post by Toto »

In post 1581, northsidegal wrote:i haven't voted thor yet because that would be betting the game on you and ucv not being partners. i don't think that's true but i still don't think it's a good idea to gamble like that. now that it seems town will lose this game anyways i guess it doesn't matter.

VOTE: thor
For this to happen you need to be really sure UC Voyager is town. Why are you avoiding Luca's question?
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Post Post #1668 (ISO) » Thu Nov 16, 2017 4:42 pm

Post by northsidegal »

In post 1667, Toto wrote:
In post 1581, northsidegal wrote:i haven't voted thor yet because that would be betting the game on you and ucv not being partners. i don't think that's true but i still don't think it's a good idea to gamble like that. now that it seems town will lose this game anyways i guess it doesn't matter.

VOTE: thor
For this to happen you need to be really sure UC Voyager is town. Why are you avoiding Luca's question?
for what to happen? i'm not avoiding luca's question - i've already answered why i believe ucv is town.
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Post Post #1669 (ISO) » Thu Nov 16, 2017 4:45 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

In post 1652, Luca Blight wrote:1. That is some reachy shit, surely you can see that? You're basically saying I made a plan of bussing Thor and getting UCV on my side, and then despite the plan going perfectly I get cold feet and ditch it just in case UCV might happen to change his mind in the future, even though there is no sign of that happening. Do you not think I would have considered what was needed to achieve victory before making the game-defining decision to bus my partner? You're basically saying just because there is some slim chance I could have an ulterior motive, my point isn't valid. You could literally say the same about any point every made in this game - you can always twist things to suit your agenda/what you want to believe.

2. Did you even read my #3? It's no good saying you've been considering something if there is nothing to back it up - we can only go on what we read in-thread.

Perhaps you can walk me through your thought process behind considering both me and UCV as scum before arriving at your conclusion that UCV must be Town and me scum?
Can you at least answer this bit?

You say you've considered I might be Town and UCV scum but we've seen no evidence of this, so please walk us through your thought-process there.
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Post Post #1670 (ISO) » Thu Nov 16, 2017 4:53 pm

Post by Thor665 »

In post 1631, northsidegal wrote:
In post 1622, Thor665 wrote:
In post 1621, UC Voyager wrote:
In post 1619, Luca Blight wrote:Right, so I, as scum, would go into today with the plan of bussing Thor and presumably getting UCV on my side, and then after I have achieved this to perfection I then decide to throw it down the drain and vote UCV, conforming to the guy I was banking on winning me the game that I'm scum?

This isn't a reasonable conclusion.
YES, because you thought you could win day four and not risk a 1v2 day 5!
But literally nothing changed to make him think that.
i'm pretty sure you made your post about how, if you were scum, your partner was acting really stupid bussing when they could've just sheeped you onto ucv. like, i'm pretty sure that post came between luca's initial push on you and him changing his mind and going onto ucv. you can't conclusively say that nothing changed because you don't know luca's thought process.
Well, if you wish to be pedantic; "nothing in the gamestate changed"
There.
In post 1633, northsidegal wrote:
In post 1630, Luca Blight wrote:@UCV: Yes but your point was that I was worried you might suspect me at some point - in that case why would I vote you? I could even suspect you without voting you, giving you room to still townread me which you did, but why would I vote you there? It makes no sense.
you didn't vote ucv until toto pointed out that you should be voting him:
If you find that to be an issue - the same thing happened with UCV.
So...?
In post 1636, Toto wrote:The problem of scum!you leaving your vote on Thor is that it would have confirmed UCV and NSG not partners when NSG didn't hammer. Which means that Thor would have no choice than to powerbus you because I would have forced him to vote you instead of UCV. And we would have ended up lynching either of you today.
:neutral:
In post 1645, northsidegal wrote:no, really - why does it matter to you? you believe that me and ucv are scum, yes? if so, why does it seem like you're trying to convince me that i'm scum or convince me that my partner is scum? or, are you just constantly bringing the point up as a way to attack my credibility?
Personally I'd just like to see you provide the meta backup.
Before I thought it was just potentially bad town play - now it looks like scum ducking the question because she's making gak up to protect a partner.
In post 1658, Toto wrote:I’ve been asking in many possible ways to Thor to help me read him better by engaging nsg or you. Maybe he has tried to do this but Ive missed that effort in between the lines. So my guess is Thor chose to vote ucv and refuses to collaborate to deny town information. He is pretty good scum and his tone and way to sort people is not different from his scum games.
I don't hamstring my town play to protect my weak scum play. I play good scum because I perfectly capture my town play.
If you think I'm playing poorly - you're just judging what I normally do.
To be perfectly frank, I could provide quotes of scum caught by me as town complaining about how I kept pressuring and needling them and wanting info till they felt helpless and exposed.
I play decent town.
Don't analyze this stupidly just because you don't 'get' how I play decent town.

That would be on you.

I've caught scum this game - you're still hemming. Sheep me and play better.
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Post Post #1671 (ISO) » Thu Nov 16, 2017 4:55 pm

Post by Toto »

In post 1670, Thor665 wrote:Before I thought it was just potentially bad town play - now it looks like scum ducking the question because she's making gak up to protect a partner.
She is confirmed scum to you...
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Post Post #1672 (ISO) » Thu Nov 16, 2017 4:57 pm

Post by Thor665 »

Yes...?
I think you're reading that really badly if you think I'm addressing it without the current concept that she is scum.
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Post Post #1673 (ISO) » Thu Nov 16, 2017 4:58 pm

Post by Thor665 »

In post 1671, Toto wrote:
In post 1670, Thor665 wrote:
Before
I thought it was just potentially bad town play -
now
it looks like scum ducking the question because she's making gak up to protect a partner.
She is confirmed scum to you...
Hint, these two words matter a lot to the timeline.
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Post Post #1674 (ISO) » Thu Nov 16, 2017 5:02 pm

Post by Toto »

In post 1669, Luca Blight wrote:
In post 1652, Luca Blight wrote:1. That is some reachy shit, surely you can see that? You're basically saying I made a plan of bussing Thor and getting UCV on my side, and then despite the plan going perfectly I get cold feet and ditch it just in case UCV might happen to change his mind in the future, even though there is no sign of that happening. Do you not think I would have considered what was needed to achieve victory before making the game-defining decision to bus my partner? You're basically saying just because there is some slim chance I could have an ulterior motive, my point isn't valid. You could literally say the same about any point every made in this game - you can always twist things to suit your agenda/what you want to believe.

2. Did you even read my #3? It's no good saying you've been considering something if there is nothing to back it up - we can only go on what we read in-thread.

Perhaps you can walk me through your thought process behind considering both me and UCV as scum before arriving at your conclusion that UCV must be Town and me scum?
Can you at least answer this bit?

You say you've considered I might be Town and UCV scum but we've seen no evidence of this, so please walk us through your thought-process there.
I agree you are a good player.

So, if you are town put yourself in my less talented shoes.

I can't pretend I can read you.
I can't pretend I can read UCV (just look at his other games).

That leaves me NSG and Luca which you have not helped me sort. I'm not saying you are bad. I'm telling you look scummy because you are refusing to help me sort people out. Why?
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