Micro 745: Beyond Death [Endgame]

[Hopkirk]

Not got time for the Micc reread yet, but can respond to stuff quickly.
@Regfan/985- It’s not Cop, but it’s the same principle. A majority of my play (in term of setups played) worked under a meta of protect yourself/a power role and don’t risk not doing so. I’d probably follow that meta, unless I recognised this. By mistake, I meant like submitting something wrong or the mod mixed up an action or something like that, not a bad decision- though obviously that’s less likely. Also don’t have time to expand on PZ, but I’m like 60-40 swinging between the two rather than having 90% solid reads either way. From my recent read of PZ, his Chip interactions look worse than I remembered, which edged it over Micc. I need to have a more in depth look at his later content to see if it is actually low content like it looked at a first look.
@Cabd, I know this goes without saying, but on the 1% chance it needs to be said don’t give your target from last night.

[Hopkirk]

@Micc: Is the setup really punishing to scum if they hard bus day one? It seems like since we’ve been working under the assumption scum wouldn’t bus, if scum predicted we’d assume that then you/PZ/me as scum would all be safe until this point. If UC hadn’t died, it’d probably (depending on Cabd protects I think) be a 5p probable lylo by this stage, which scum would have a good chance in.
Hard bus being bad move (like you seem to say it objectively is) is really wifomy in my opinion since the scenario we’ve got is looking good for scum even with the weird UC kill. Every lynch so far has been based largely on the logic that scum wouldn’t bus, and it looks like people are leaning more towards me being scum in a large part because I would be the lightest bus if scum- which means a hard bus would win the game, hence definitely not be a bad move.
In light of that/this, I’m curious why you’d say a hard bus is a bad/suboptimal move?

2.) can you expand on this point ‘Hopkirk feels like he's more or less just been here. I'm aware that if Zito's scum his long game strategy has been to have me in his pocket all game by echoing my thoughts the whole way’
I was pushing UC/BTD d2/4, and against North. D3 I held the same view of Cheeky as everyone did. I’m curious why you think my pushes against UC/BTD were ‘just being there’, especially since PZ had a lot less content than me.

[Regfan]

@ BTD - Night 2 kill doesn't really factor into my read on Micc much at all, if he's scum the purpose of the kill is largely a "Frame some of the lesser experienced players and use his knowledge of the setup to dissuade people from thinking he made the play", given most of the players that were lesser experienced were already in the lynch pool it's not hugely beneficial for him but there's always the "He made the move to dodge the lynch today" element so all up it's probably not something I'll read hugely into? I don't think he makes that kill to get the Cheeky lynch due to the slot being empty if that's what you're referring to there at all.

I'm pretty confident he's town here, you got any other reasons that you haven't already gone into that you want to air out to make me reconsider that?

[Hopkirk]

For the record, I'll reveal who i targeted each night later. Probably after regfan snuggles. It wasn't 100% self.

Eh, it's probably better if you don't? I mean from a curiosity point of view I'd love to hear but I don't see how it'll actually assist us at all and if anything just lets mafia know if they can 'Call whisperes' and win tonight if we mslynch today. So yeah, unless you think it helps us decide who's mafia hold that info.

N1/2 should be fine to hear.

I went back to do VCA but the votecounts are too sparse. I'll have to manually recreate the various Day 1 wagons by hand which'll be fun. I'll work on that tonight.

I'm not a huge fan of VCA in most games but in this one with only 2 scum members and a D1 scum lynch I'm even more leery of it so what particularly do you think you

might

find from it that'll be helpful in solving this? Only asking because I fear you'll come out of this learning nothing and having spent quite some time on it whereas I'd rather you spend a little of that just laying down your unfiltered thoughts of the situation at hand.

I agree. It sounds like busywork/less valuable than isoing.

[Hopkirk]

1000/1 where written together btw, but i seperated them since they were very different topics.

[Micc]

If you think about it a little more a mafia lynch doesn't actually drastically increase the amount of mslynches that town receive throughout the game, if you play based on the logic that mafia only ever ignite to win the game you end up having a scenario where D1 is 7:2 (1), D2 6:2 (2), D3: 5:2 (3) meaning that town have at minimum 3 mslynches in hand before mafia could even just potentially win and that's only if their N1/N2/N3 primes all hit without being blocked or being on a player that'll be lynched. So without bussing mafia need 4 flat out mslynches to win this game in all likelihood, given there's been 3 mslynches so far and uh, this'll be lynch number 4 that means the difference between mafia having 2 members or 1 member left here is actually very minimal and then plays into the "Mafia should be playing to be read as not W/W" ergo "Mafia have a lot of reason to buss" area so while people helping lynch mafia D1 is nice and all it's very far from being a point to ruling them out.So like you've mentioned this a few times now with "The swing of the setup makes a mafia lynch D1 hurt a lot", can you actually show me what you mean because the numbers I've run above point heavily against the statement you've made being true.

Spoiler:

Day 1 scum lynch means 7v1 going into Night 1. First opportunity to prime.
Day 2 town lynch means 6v1 going into Night 2. Second opportunity to prime.
Day 3 town lynch means 5v1 going into Night 3. Third opportunity to prime.
Day 4 is the 3rd mislynch making it 4v1 going into Night 4.

Day 1 town lynch means 6v2 going into Night 1. First opportunity to prime.
Day 2 town lynch means 5v2 going into Night 2. Second opportunity to prime.
Day 3 is the 3rd mislynch making it 4v2 going into Night 3.

If nothing goes wrong scum ignite and win in both scenarios.
If scum ignite and one thing went wrong its lylo in both scenarios.
If scum ignite and two things went wrong its not even lylo in either scenario.

Yeah, the earliest the game can end is after 3 mislynches with perfect primes and ignitions regardless of how much scum is left. But with two scum left that perfect path requires 4 things to go right and with one scum left that perfect path requires 6 things to go right. Considering that each thing that goes wrong adds a mislynch to the game I think its a significant disadvantage to go down a player early.

The difference is even more pronounced on some of the extremely messy paths where more than two things go wrong - kinda like where we ended up in this game. For example we could hypothetically make our fourth mislynch today and still get a

fifth

chance tomorrow if Cabd made a successful protection or if we lynch the primed player. With two scum left the fourth mislynch is going to end the game in cases were one player has been night killed.

[Regfan]

Yes Micc but how do you differentiate "Mafia wouldn't buss strongly D1 as they fall very far behind" as a thing, ultimately mafia dying on D1 is the same as mafia dying on D2/D3 etc? At the very start of the game mafia are going to either believe in both of them to endgame together in which case realistically 4 mslynches is a win for them or that one of them is going to die at some point and realistically 4 maybe 5 mslynches is going to win the game for them, the fact that the real difference between losing a member and not losing a member is in the range of 0-1 extra mslynches required to win the game is actually very small and most certainly small enough for it to be well and truly worthwhile to buss if you think you can do it well.

[Regfan]

@Cabd - You done much/any meta reading into any of the three of them at all this game?

[Micc]

My intention hasn't been to single out day 1 as being different than any other day. I just think that loosing a partner makes the end game significantly more difficult than its worth. So distancing is fine and probably necessary, but lynching your partner in order to ride the town credit seems unnecessarily risky. Having ran the numbers more thoroughly now I'll admit it's closer than I was assuming for the duration of the game but I still think its true.

That said one of the bad things that can happen to scum is having a primed town player get lynched. It's always impossible to do that one Day 1, but its also not possible when scum gets lynched. For this reason a Day 1 bus is slightly worse than a day 2 or 3 bus.

[Micc]

I kinda rushed that post because I got called out of my office. Id like to add that I think the Night 3 ignite to win is a realistic path to shoot for. There's four points it could go potentially wrong: N1 prime gets protected, N1 prime gets lynched, N2 prime gets protected, N2 prime gets lynched. If one of those things goes wrong scum can still ignite and be left with a lylo situation. Its pretty easy to get three of those four things right.

With a scum lynch thrown in N3 prime gets protected and N3 prime gets lynched are added to the list of bad things that could happen. If one of those 6 things goes wrong scum still get to a lylo situation. Its a lot harder to get 5 of those 6 things right than the 3 of 4 in the first scenario. Especially considering the likelihood of a protection or a primed player getting lynched increases as the player list shrinks in size.

[Micc]

@Micc: Is the setup really punishing to scum if they hard bus day one? It seems like since we’ve been working under the assumption scum wouldn’t bus, if scum predicted we’d assume that then you/PZ/me as scum would all be safe until this point. If UC hadn’t died, it’d probably (depending on Cabd protects I think) be a 5p probable lylo by this stage, which scum would have a good chance in. Hard bus being bad move (like you seem to say it objectively is) is really wifomy in my opinion since the scenario we’ve got is looking good for scum even with the weird UC kill. Every lynch so far has been based largely on the logic that scum wouldn’t bus, and it looks like people are leaning more towards me being scum in a large part because I would be the lightest bus if scum- which means a hard bus would win the game, hence definitely not be a bad move.In light of that/this, I’m curious why you’d say a hard bus is a bad/suboptimal move?

If you want to talk about WIFOM then you might as well take the specific setup out of the picture. "A scum never bus" meta leads to scum being incentivized to bus. Once "Scum are often bussing" becomes the meta then scum are no longer incentivized to bus. I'm starting to wonder why this discussion is still relevant to the game. Clearly scum bussed. I can understand wanting to understand why we thought that was unlikely to be the case as it pertains to looking at read trajectory in an attempt to read someone. I just don't see the point in turning this into a theory debate about how to play this setup.

2.) can you expand on this point ‘Hopkirk feels like he's more or less just been here. I'm aware that if Zito's scum his long game strategy has been to have me in his pocket all game by echoing my thoughts the whole way’I was pushing UC/BTD d2/4, and against North. D3 I held the same view of Cheeky as everyone did. I’m curious why you think my pushes against UC/BTD were ‘just being there’, especially since PZ had a lot less content than me.

I mean you weren't memorable enough day 2/4 that I can remember those pushes off the top of my head. That's a product of my memory as much as it is your play. It should rectify its self when I go back to analyze that part of the game.

[Regfan]

@Micc - I think I disagree re; the "Distancing but not bussing" being the smart play for the scum here given the odds of town ML'ing D1/D2/D3 in a row via 'random lynching' is down at ~35% and in practice probably closer to ~20% but I can at least see where you're coming from with it now.

Looking forward to your rereads thoughts & analysis.

[Regfan]

@Northsidegal, if you're around now I'd be cool hearing where your heads currently at particularly pertaining to PZ and Hopkirk.

[Cabd]

@Cabd - You done much/any meta reading into any of the three of them at all this game?

I know I said i'd be around but stuff came up, so you'll have to settle for infodumping and having me respond later, sorry.

[Regfan]

Unacceptable!

No problem. Are you in agreement with me that Micc is probably town here? If so then it's just a case of us discussing where we're both at with the other two, if you're uncomfortable ruling out Micc then I'd kind of like to see the qualms you've got with him here so I can take a look at them myself.

[Micc]

well shit. I lost half my post. Just gunna submit now for fear of somehow losing the rest.

Spoiler: a Sobelov/zito iso dig

has your opinion on chip butty changed as his wagon fell apart? the lack of traction for the wagon meant there was less pressure than I would have liked. I'm left feeling like I don't have a read on him because of it.

eh he's still a tr. i thought his response to his wagon in 56 was fairly towny. it was a lot like how i reacted to being wagoned early in my first newbie game although given his join date i'm a little less inclined to tr it than i would if he was a newbie.

i wish he would contribute more but i'm most interested in hearing btd's thoughts rn

This stands out because 56 is the post that drove my early game scum read on Chip. Sobolev is town reading Chip for this post despite acknowledging that his reasoning is flawed. I could see this being protection of a scum partner. Sobolev doubles down on this in 149 and again in 156.

i probably agree with cheeky that cabd should just self-protect every night.

I'm still of the opinion that this would have been wrong for what its worth. It doesn't feel right to scum read him for it this, but scum would defiantly prefer to have town announcing their strategy over keeping it a secret and anything pushing the game in that direction is suspicious.

micc can i convince you to vote for kawso. like i get he's been lurky but i just don't see at all how a townie comes back to the game, sees 4 new pages and just makes 107 with a garbage explanation for a vote. its like he's just searching for reasons to vote so he's at least doing something without actually engaging in the game

I think I town read this. Making a reach out post like this feel genuine is difficult as scum and this feels authentic.

micc can i convince you to vote for kawso. like i get he's been lurky but i just don't see at all how a townie comes back to the game, sees 4 new pages and just makes 107 with a garbage explanation for a vote. its like he's just searching for reasons to vote so he's at least doing something without actually engaging in the game

Similarly, this is good posting.

For the record, I am reserving my real reads list until everyone else has posted theirs, i don't want "sheep the confotown's reads" being a thing.

sure

{SS, Cabd}
{NSG, Cheeky, Chip}
{BTD}
{Hopkirk, Micc}
{Kawso}

On the other hand this doesn't mesh with him reaching out to me in regards to voting Kawso/UC. Reaching out into you're scum pile for help to build a wagon isn't exactly a productive way to townblock.

For the record, I am reserving my real reads list until everyone else has posted theirs, i don't want "sheep the confotown's reads" being a thing.

[Cabd]
[SS, CT, NSG]
[Micc
[Hopkirk]
[]

*Not enough input: BTD6, Kawso

Micc's work rate has definitely dropped off after an initial burst of activity. Possibly cruising after having established some town cred.

Hopkirk on the other hand has picked up activity after initially being quiet, but while he raises a lot of points my overall impression is that they lack penetration.

I kind of like CT's recent observation that NSG's comments are not of the sharp scum hunting variety but i also sympathise with NSG because nobody is yet standing out as especially scummy.

I think kawso either has to join the game or be replaced. Don't really want to vote that slot until we get something from it.

I might have to look back for evidence of Chip's town read on Sobolev here. Him not mentioning it in post 294 is weird and a lack of trajectory on this read would point towards Sobolev/Zito being scum. Also its interesting how close the Chip and Sobolev reads lists are.

~And now there's a decent sized break as Sobelov gets behind and is eventually replaced by Zito. ~

The stretch of Zito vs Chip between 512 and 532 still reads as not bussing to me. Chip definitely gets a little weird in the face of pressure, but that's why we lynched him and why he flipped scum. Zito's push makes sense, looks genuine, and ultimately isn't necessary if he's scum. Chip was pretty much off the table on Day 1 if this push doesn't happen which is a reasonably comfortable place for a Chip + Zito scum team to be.

And it continues for a while but I'm not going to pull out quotes because I don't have much to say about it.

[Regfan]

I'd like your thoughts on the PZ & Chip interaction in the spoilered posts, specifically re; the discussion based around Chips read on SS/PZ.

Spoiler:

Fwiw, I just re-read the SS ISO, and i still think it is solid, so that carries over to Papa Zito.

BTD has been avoiding making strong reads, yes, but he is very conscious of that and keeps drawing attention to it, so he definitely not hoping it will go unnoticed. And he is actually right, there hasn't been anything to form a strong read on yet, so i am sympatico. His approach contrasts with the Micc/CT overstate-and-bluff approach to scumhunting, which also has its merits when used correctly. I'm not feeling BTD's CT vote though. I think he probably just a thoughtful, cautious player who will hopefully get stronger reads as the game progresses. If not then can lynch, but i won't be lynching him today.

I think I'll wait for substantial posts from UCV before actually voting. I'm inclined to look at BTD's wagon next. I've been mentioning Micc a fair bit lately, and Zito is ex-SS so probably okay for now, even though he seems to be intent on scumming up the slot. Time to revisit Hopkirk, methinks, esp since i still hold the view that he and Micc are unlikely both to be scum.

Zito is ex-SS so probably okay for now, even though he seems to be intent on scumming up the slot.

Hello Chip. Let's talk about this sentence.

Zito is ex-SS so probably okay for now, even though he seems to be intent on scumming up the slot.

Hello Chip. Let's talk about this sentence.

Sure. If your slot didn't have the SS history behind it, i would be at least have you leaning scum atm.

Seriously Chip. Put a vote into play.

Predit: haha, haven't you realized that Chip's go to method of reading people is that activity=Town, any sign of lurkyness=scum and absent=null.

The Magic Chip Formula.

I'm not really lurking I'm just feeling really confident in my reads. Which is weird but nice. So atm I'm much more interested in supporting my townreads efforts in doing things than trying to drill down on my own.

Other than Chip. I do want to have a chat with Chip. Speaking of which:

Sure. If your slot didn't have the SS history behind it, i would be at least have you leaning scum atm.

oh no

but why

The Magic Chip Formula.

Do you want to know how I derived it? I looked at the activity table and noticed I'm the most prolific poster. Since from my own pov at keast I'm also townest, i realised that there is a perfect correlation there. Then i extrapolated to everyone else.

So yes, let's chat. We'll both become towner as we go along. And not to be rude or anything, but i feel you kind of owe it to SS to town it up a bit...

So yes, let's chat. We'll both become towner as we go along. And not to be rude or anything, but i feel you kind of owe it to SS to town it up a bit...

rofl I don't owe that guy anything and I sure as hell don't need to "town it up a bit"

Which hey look you've once again made a super vague statement. So here I am asking why you're tossing shade instead of either determining alignment or pushing a wagon. Can you plz solve this mysterious mystery.

[Regfan]

If I'm being more precise it's these comments from Chip that I want you to weigh in on but the whole context above is needed to read them;

I've been mentioning Micc a fair bit lately, and

Zito is ex-SS so probably okay for now, even though he seems to be intent on scumming up the slot.

So yes, let's chat. We'll both become towner as we go along.

And not to be rude or anything, but i feel you kind of owe it to SS to town it up a bit...

Questions open to anyone; do you think the above points towards PZ!Town, PZ!Scum or just not worth reading too much into?

[Micc]

Spoiler:

Yup, that was my conclusion too. Cheeky is a second possibility.

VOTE: northsidegal

If Zito helping to swing the Chip wagon was the start of him pocketing me this is the continuation.

a lot of your reasoning on how my posts make me chip's partner come off as if you already started with the perspective of me being chip's partner and then used that to explain how my posts made sense in that context, rather than starting from a neutral context.

This isn't true in the least.

If you want to live past today I'd suggest you start actually doing some work instead of trying to pick fights with Extremely Likely Townies.

I called this good posting at the time. Now it just feels like irony. But yeah, more of Zito possibly appealing to me.

why does it matter to you, don't you think i'm scum anyways?

I want you to prove me wrong. And Micc is the last person you should be worrying about.

This too.

@Micc I came to the same conclusions you did when I read overnight. I'm 100% on board here. I'm also willing to vote Cheeky today.

And also this. Being willing to vote Cheeky here doesn't line up with being 100% on board with NSG. I'm also left wondering how Cheeky moved under BTD - or even if Zito was scum reading BTD when he voted him upon entering the game. I kinda want to come back to this.

jfc no please don't get them started on statistics

Wait. You don't want us to scum hunt until there is a replacment. If I wasn't so confidant in BTD6, I would say NSG was scummy...

UC I'll make you a deal. You give me NSG today, I'll give you BTD6 tomorrow.

Hmmm. The trajectory from 726 to this don't really line up in context of ISOing but maybe the whole thread provides an explanation. Yeah I want to come back to this.

Yeah I'm down.

VOTE: Cheeky

If this doesn't do it I'll have to really reassess the game, but north/cheeky were the most logical partners for Chip.

and now he's moved back in the direction of Cheeky. Notably the last line indicates that Zito scumreads Cheeky beyond the nightkill shenanigans so that's not the reason for this shift.

Next there's a whole pile of Micc and Hopkirk posts without any Zito as cheeky gets lynched and Day 4 begins.

* Micc is still clearly town here. The early push on Chip was stamped by Micc Industries, he lamented later that it fell apart, and hopped back on as soon as it was viable again. In between those periods he was poking and prodding at everyone. There simply isn't a scum agenda here. If MiccTeam decided to pull off an all-day angry bus then kudos enjoy your win I ain't even mad.

Heck yeah I am. Possibly more appealing to me. Its also a pretty accurate description of how I fell about Zito during this part of the game.

Gods, what to make of post 820. It's the only thing i'm waffly about.

I've gone back and forth on that NK and ultimately where I landed was this: The move was so absolutely suboptimal that the only possible benefit it could have was to introduce confusion into the game, so it should simply be ignored. Corollary to that, any discussion regarding the NK should also be ignored since it's just a thousand gallon tank of wifom.

I think I had already made this post hadn't I? Pretty sure I did. Definitely scums up my feelings about the situation.

I haven't voted because I'm assuming this is lylo but lemme think out loud.

Night 1: UC Voyager slot of all people gets primed
Night 2: whoosh
Night 3:

unknown

gets primed

We have 5 players alive. If we mislynch today, we're down to 4. I think, regardless of whether we mislynched Night 3's primed townie, scum will prime another one. If we

didn't

lynch the primed target, then killing them Night 4 just puts us at 3. If we

did

lynch the primed target then they got nothing to blow up and gotta prime again.

So I guess we're not at lylo after all. I'd still like you to weigh in but if you feel like it's better to wait a day we can do that.

I definitely had made this post already too. I realize cabd was literally asking for it but ehh.

And that brings us to today. tbh I'm shaky about a lot more things after having gone through that than I was going in.

[Micc]

Spoiler: responses to quotes in post 1016

Fwiw, I just re-read the SS ISO, and i still think it is solid, so that carries over to Papa Zito.

This is when Zito is still voting BTD. Early indication is that Chip doesn't have a problem with Zito or his naked vote on BTD at this time.

BTD has been avoiding making strong reads, yes, but he is very conscious of that and keeps drawing attention to it, so he definitely not hoping it will go unnoticed. And he is actually right, there hasn't been anything to form a strong read on yet, so i am sympatico. His approach contrasts with the Micc/CT overstate-and-bluff approach to scumhunting, which also has its merits when used correctly. I'm not feeling BTD's CT vote though. I think he probably just a thoughtful, cautious player who will hopefully get stronger reads as the game progresses. If not then can lynch, but i won't be lynching him today.

I think I'll wait for substantial posts from UCV before actually voting. I'm inclined to look at BTD's wagon next. I've been mentioning Micc a fair bit lately, and Zito is ex-SS so probably okay for now, even though he seems to be intent on scumming up the slot. Time to revisit Hopkirk, methinks, esp since i still hold the view that he and Micc are unlikely both to be scum.

This doesn't really have anything to do with Chip/Zito interactions does it? I think the post is bad and scummy but I don't get a Zito read off it in any way.

Zito is ex-SS so probably okay for now, even though he seems to be intent on scumming up the slot.

Hello Chip. Let's talk about this sentence.

That seems like a pretty reasonable way to open up an avenue of interaction with a player youre interested in pushing. Certainly not hard to fake if its them bussing, but gun to my head I say its genuine.

Zito is ex-SS so probably okay for now, even though he seems to be intent on scumming up the slot.

Hello Chip. Let's talk about this sentence.

Sure. If your slot didn't have the SS history behind it, i would be at least have you leaning scum atm.

The trajectory from 490 to here is awkward, but that's scum points towards Chip and not any real indication of Zito's alignment imo.

Seriously Chip. Put a vote into play.

Predit: haha, haven't you realized that Chip's go to method of reading people is that activity=Town, any sign of lurkyness=scum and absent=null.

The Magic Chip Formula.

I'm not really lurking I'm just feeling really confident in my reads. Which is weird but nice. So atm I'm much more interested in supporting my townreads efforts in doing things than trying to drill down on my own.

Other than Chip. I do want to have a chat with Chip. Speaking of which:

Sure. If your slot didn't have the SS history behind it, i would be at least have you leaning scum atm.

oh no

but why

Again I think this is a reasonable post to come from town. He's setting up and fishing for bad answers from Chip which is basically my scumhunting strategy so this just looks town to me.

The Magic Chip Formula.

Do you want to know how I derived it? I looked at the activity table and noticed I'm the most prolific poster. Since from my own pov at keast I'm also townest, i realised that there is a perfect correlation there. Then i extrapolated to everyone else.

So yes, let's chat. We'll both become towner as we go along. And not to be rude or anything, but i feel you kind of owe it to SS to town it up a bit...

Now if there's a Chip post that makes Zito look like scum as opposed to just making Chip look like scum this is it. Its basically the equivalent of "lets fight and make it look like town vs town because that will help us distance and we can both benefit from getting town read for it."

So yes, let's chat. We'll both become towner as we go along. And not to be rude or anything, but i feel you kind of owe it to SS to town it up a bit...

rofl I don't owe that guy anything and I sure as hell don't need to "town it up a bit"

Which hey look you've once again made a super vague statement. So here I am asking why you're tossing shade instead of either determining alignment or pushing a wagon. Can you plz solve this mysterious mystery.

And this just feels like more good pushing from Zito.

[Micc]

If I'm being more precise it's these comments from Chip that I want you to weigh in on but the whole context above is needed to read them;

I've been mentioning Micc a fair bit lately, and

Zito is ex-SS so probably okay for now, even though he seems to be intent on scumming up the slot.

So yes, let's chat. We'll both become towner as we go along.

And not to be rude or anything, but i feel you kind of owe it to SS to town it up a bit...

Questions open to anyone; do you think the above points towards PZ!Town, PZ!Scum or just not worth reading too much into?

So to reiterate, I think this shows Chip being scum because yes the trajectory isn't smooth at all. Yeah there's a case to be made about Chip signaling to his partner the desire for a discussion that leaves them both getting town credit. But at the end of the day this isn't something that I'd choose to make a game deciding read based off so I'm gunna go with the "not worth reading too much into" option to answer your question.

With that I'm headed home from work. I'll make some food and check back in to respond in about 30 to 45 min.

[Regfan]

Yeah, your analysis on PZ in Post 1018 is where I'm at with his recent play a lot too in that after the Chip lynch D1 I haven't seen much reads from him in the thread at all or really got the solid feeling that he's trying to find scum with the exception of a few posts of his. It's plausible it's just him as town feeling comfortable with the game state, confident town reads and a scum down already but it's also possible it's him coasting as scum and letting town lead mslynch after mslynch, the fact there's not a lot form both him and Hopkirk in that period doesn't make this easy. I'm looking forward to his explanation behind his "Cheeky fits as partners with Chip" type read that he'll be going into shortly but I wouldn't also mind the BTD vote upon replacing in touched on from him now too after reading your post.

You've sort of touched on what I was after about that PZ/Chip interaction in that I'm trying to work out if it's a case of scum forcing an interaction between the two of them and trying to be read as not partners due to it or if it's a case of Chip just being really awkward upon being correctly scum read, pretty undecided on the two, it's just an interaction that strike me as really weird for scum to have with town but also for scum to have with scum.

Had a slight Aha moment earlier and thought I'd stumbled across something rather damning, still may have but I'm going to think it through before posting.

[Regfan]

When you get home I wouldn't mind you reading through my interaction with Hopkirk from last night and stating your thoughts on that.

Also where's the treestumps???

[Micc]

I will say that I think we all felt pretty comfortable with the game state going through days 2-4. Maybe Hopkirk a little less give that he possibly would have preferred to lynch NSG, cheeky and BTD in a different order. But I have a hard time holding 'feeling comfortable' against anyone given that's how I also felt.

The only thing from your interaction with Hopkirk that generated anything for me was the questioning of his BTD vote. I'm a little starved for context on it which comes from me not getting around to the Hopkirk ISO yet. I plan to give this some extra attention when I do that ISO tomorrow because I think you could be on to something. I feel the need to compare how I remember that BTD wagon building with what actually happened.

[Micc]

Also where's the treestumps???

Also, you all suck for getting me to stay up an extra hour for no reason.