Open 707 - JK9++ [Endgame]

AnonymousGhost · Post Post #1164 (isolation #0) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:08 am

Catching up + multitasking.

Prefers she/her pronouns. Please and thank you.

AnonymousGhost · Post Post #1168 (isolation #1) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:18 am

@Math

You're currently present and I'm clueless.

Can you explain where you get your numbers in 1157 (7v2v1)? Specifically the # of mafia.

AnonymousGhost · Post Post #1170 (isolation #2) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:23 am

What makes us think we had 3 scum to begin with?

AnonymousGhost · Post Post #1173 (isolation #3) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:25 am

@sheep

I did and I still don't understand.

AnonymousGhost · Post Post #1176 (isolation #4) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:35 am

Gave another look at the possible set ups on the wiki page. T is the only option with a 3 player mafia team at game-start.

TTTTTTT = Mafia Goon,

Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver

, Serial Killer
TTTTT = Mafia Goon,

Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver

, Serial Killer (repeat)
T = Mafia Goon,

Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver

, Mafia JOAT, Serial Killer

AnonymousGhost · Post Post #1179 (isolation #5) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:53 am

@Dino

Making a post with spoilers for each player on things that I find noteworthy, towny, scummy, etc. Categorize stuff into D1 and D2 and then post separate read lists based D1 and D2 player content.

Can you explain the impossibility of the 7 T's?

AnonymousGhost · Post Post #1191 (isolation #6) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:58 pm

Not vigilante.

AnonymousGhost · Post Post #1234 (isolation #7) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:38 am

@Hawk

Shoot.

AnonymousGhost · Post Post #1244 (isolation #8) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:15 am

Day One

Spoiler: big post

{Impede, Hawk}
{Screen, MathDino, fitz}
{Kop, Una, momo, Sheep}

@Una

- Without looking at D2 content, what happened to your A50 + momo case?

@Kop

- What's up w/ 322? You explained Jay, but left out Red.

@Sheep

- Why didn't you want people to come up w/ their own scum teams in 443?

@momo

- Do you really believe what you said in 385?

Day Two

Spoiler: kinda big post

{Impede}
{Screen, MathDino, fitz}
{Una, Sheep, Hawk}
{momo}
{Kop}

AnonymousGhost · Post Post #1247 (isolation #9) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:20 am

@Sheep

What about D2 associative hunting? D1 wagon flipped red.

AnonymousGhost · Post Post #1262 (isolation #10) » Sat Jan 13, 2018 6:03 am

@fitz

I'd like my questions to get answered in 1244 and then do some follow up before I cast my vote.

AnonymousGhost · Post Post #1282 (isolation #11) » Sat Jan 13, 2018 8:58 am

@Una

Since you're here, can you answer this?

In post 1244, AnonymousGhost wrote:@Una - Without looking at D2 content, what happened to your A50 + momo case?

I assume the momo case is still on - since you voted for him - but because A50 flipped green, can you explain how that may or may not have affected your case on momo?

AnonymousGhost · Post Post #1284 (isolation #12) » Sat Jan 13, 2018 8:59 am

@fitz

No.

AnonymousGhost · Post Post #1287 (isolation #13) » Sat Jan 13, 2018 9:04 am

@Una

What about the interactions w/ A50 made momo scummy?

AnonymousGhost · Post Post #1290 (isolation #14) » Sat Jan 13, 2018 9:26 am

@Dino

-

Please give reasons for each reads list as of the time you made them. With more explanation for the unpopular opinions. In particular, Impede being so high, momo being so low, Screenplay being so high.

Impede's comment (821) is more likely to come from town than scum and the diversity of his cases (A50 - dropped -, Kop, and Una) is what pushed him into a high town lean.

Hawk asking for Red's experience, desire for more discussion - specifically from fitz -, and how he stood his ground against Momo's argument that your argument (Dino) did not influence his decision making is why Hawk is a high town lean.

Screen got a town lean because he asked some armor piercing questions - 879, 880 - that showed that he was willing to evaluate the wagons before hopping onto them. Answering your question about gut reads and how Screen uses them as a starting point was interesting. It implies that Screen will go back and investigate stuff if he gets a gut read for it, so he's demonstrating a willingness to put in effort.

You (Math) got a town lean because of your set up speculation, the hider theory and how Assemble noted that it would do nothing but strengthen the theoretical hider role, and all the evidence that you give out - reads lists, cases, and then fact checking - was what gave you a town lean.

fitz got a town lean because of his thought process posts especially about Impede.

Kop - The fact that Kop turned his attention elsewhere besides the Jay/Red wagon was a town move i.e. diversifying the conversation. However, Kop says that he doesn't "necessarily scum read Jay", but says nothing about Red - leaving the implication that he could still be scum reading Red.

Una - Encouraging the discussion to not solely revolve around one subject was a town move. I think that Una and Impede were the only two players on D1 that had reads that were in stark contrast to everyone else's at that point (not fact checked). I don't think Una detailed his cases as well as Impede did, so that is where the level difference comes in (based off of memory, not fact checked).

momo - His early statement that he doesn't believe in town reads was ironic given that he handed a few of those out throughout D1. 683 and 717 are hedgy. Momo claims (683) that both Impede and Creature are scum, but says that Impede should be lynched first because of "more info" but doesn't explain what sort of information we could gain.

Momo says this again and again but never explains what sort of information we'd gain. At a later point when Impede's wagon is loosing traction, Momo undermines his statements on Scum!Impede saying that Impede is not the scummiest lynch candidate. Instead, favoring a Creature wagon saying that "he has more content than redflavor in the effort to make himself appear towny, but is scummy" (717). He undermines this again in 729 when he address that "While I think both - (Creature & Impede) - are scummy ... i think impede flip, no matter what it is, provides more information which we could use right now" with no mention of RedFlavor at all.

-

Your momo read is uninformed I think by the context of his conversation with Jay. Check my, momo's, or Impede's ISOs to find it and read it in context. I said something like "momo just rocketed to the top of my townlist". Let me know what you think.

Spoiler: is this the conversation you are referring to?

In post 395, JaydragonKing wrote:Why the heck are you associating me with Red so much, Momo? We've literally not had a conversation with each other at all, just him commenting earlier on about my "survive wincon". Was it Fitz who decided to ship us together as a scum team? I really want to know.

Do you read us both as scum and therefore we're a scum team by just both being scum or do you see something I don't?

In post 398, momo wrote:
In post 397, Creature wrote:I thought mafia had no daytalk.
They don't have day talk but the way they voted each other was in a way of buddies supporting each other to get out of scum reads.

The voting pattern does not make any logical sense otherwise

In post 399, JaydragonKing wrote:I read Creature as scum. He jumped on. If I'm getting damned because a different scum read jumped on my vote, I'm just unlucky. And Mason's can't even be here, Momo. This is an open. We know the possible roles in the wiki page. Anyone who claims Mason's are instantly scum.

In post 400, momo wrote:
In post 399, JaydragonKing wrote:I read Creature as scum. He jumped on. If I'm getting damned because a different scum read jumped on my vote, I'm just unlucky. And Mason's can't even be here, Momo. This is an open. We know the possible roles in the wiki page. Anyone who claims Mason's are instantly scum.
That's the reason I asked if you were masons...it would have confirmed my reads.

Still, in the time that it took you to reply, I was tracking your online status and ALL your posts...you had a shortish gap in which you weren't doing anything though which could have been synonymous with you checking the wiki page (another test by me)

And it's not unlucky, the jump by him would have been a very classic n00b scum move, and it has damned you both.

In post 402, JaydragonKing wrote:I'll have you know I was thinking of a response in a different game on site as well as putting on a music video on YouTube that I like listening too while I type.

And yeah, I keep the wiki open in an alt tab at all times to catch liars if they claim a bullshit role. No hiding that. I won't say I didn't check the wiki to be sure of no Mason because that would be a lie.

Anything Elsa?

In post 403, momo wrote:
In post 402, JaydragonKing wrote:I'll have you know I was thinking of a response in a different game on site as well as putting on a music video on YouTube that I like listening too while I type.

And yeah, I keep the wiki open in an alt tab at all times to catch liars if they claim a bullshit role. No hiding that. I won't say I didn't check the wiki to be sure of no Mason because that would be a lie.

Anything Elsa?
The fact that you checked the wiki...you should have immediately denied the claim because you know your role. And I highly doubt you always keep the wiki open for a circumstance like this, especially in D1 when hardly anyone claims. When I asked if you were mason, are you telling me that town's first reaction would be to check if there was a mason in this setup? B.S.!

So you have been caught lying twice in one post. Tell me class, which faction lies when questioned, scum or town?

(P.S. I totally one-upped the class analogy with this post..Score!)

In post 401, Mathdino wrote:So momo just rocketed to the top of my town list.

In post 404, Mathdino wrote:
In post 403, momo wrote:Tell me class, which faction lies when questioned, scum or town?
I do have an objective problem with scumhunting in this way. My experience is that town usually fumbles more when questioned.

In post 405, momo wrote:
In post 404, Mathdino wrote:
In post 403, momo wrote:Tell me class, which faction lies when questioned, scum or town?
I do have an objective problem with scumhunting in this way. My experience is that town usually fumbles more when questioned.
Maybe they fumble but I think getting caught in two OUTRIGHT lies is pretty scummy. My sentence at the end was probably too general but that was mainly added for the class analogy. However, in this situation, while considering the context, I would say that the lie is scummy. Would you disagree?

In post 406, JaydragonKing wrote:That was my first reaction to check the wiki because I'm playing three separate games at once with completely different settings. I do it as a reminder that I am also putting an effort in this game, and to not fuck up by forgetting to see if a role is even possible.

I didn't lie, because that would mean I wouldn't have mentioned checking the wiki in the first place. I'm already suspect, so lying would only hurt me more.

In post 409, Impede wrote:
In post 401, Mathdino wrote:So momo just rocketed to the top of my town list.
ding ding ding

In post 410, Impede wrote:
In post 403, momo wrote:
In post 402, JaydragonKing wrote:I'll have you know I was thinking of a response in a different game on site as well as putting on a music video on YouTube that I like listening too while I type.

And yeah, I keep the wiki open in an alt tab at all times to catch liars if they claim a bullshit role. No hiding that. I won't say I didn't check the wiki to be sure of no Mason because that would be a lie.

Anything Elsa?
The fact that you checked the wiki...you should have immediately denied the claim because you know your role. And I highly doubt you always keep the wiki open for a circumstance like this, especially in D1 when hardly anyone claims. When I asked if you were mason, are you telling me that town's first reaction would be to check if there was a mason in this setup? B.S.!

So you have been caught lying twice in one post. Tell me class, which faction lies when questioned, scum or town?

(P.S. I totally one-upped the class analogy with this post..Score!)
Hooooo...... wow. I am going to reread this like 30 times and then decide if momo just tricked scum into scumslipping successfully.

In post 412, Impede wrote:OH fair. Unless he thinks he can lynch A50 without you.

Regarding Momo vs Jay: I think if someone accused VT!Impede of being a mason I would check the wiki too. Sorry, but I don't think your little trick did anything but conftown you.

In post 413, Mathdino wrote:The hilarious thing is I honest to god thought masons were possible in this setup until Jay said that. I think I even suggested masons as a possibility earlier O_O

I'm unconvinced on this specific issue. Like I'm totally down for the Jay lynch but I don't think "Jay checks the wiki page" is really the keystone of the Jaycase, or some kind of smoking gun. Scumslips don't really look like this.

Edit: fuck you for ninjaing my exact thoughts

In post 416, Mathdino wrote:
In post 396, momo wrote:3. As you mentioned, you have not had any communication. Yet both of you tried to start a wagon together that clearly didn't have any traction going for it yet. For this to happen in between 2 town, or 1 town/1 scum, there would need to be some sort of communication. Yet here you are, working together without communication. This means that you know something the rest of us do not. More specifically, you know something that ties the two of you together that town does not. This means that you are either masons or mafia. Are you claiming masons? Because if you are not masons, you are noob scum who finds your buddy in a spot defending each other and getting caught by me.
So which is it, masons or scum?
Yeah the way this was phrased would definitely lead me to check the setup just to discredit the person pushing me. I'd be like "Okay, you're just stupid, because (*checks wiki*) I definitely can't be masons with him, so the connection you're seeing isn't even possible".

Still good with a Jaydragonwagon if/when the utility of the RedFlavor wagon runs dry.

My opinion on gambits is low. Gambits are suspicious to me because scum can explain mistakes and anti-town actions as "gambits" if they get caught. Here's a closed newbie game with a scum gambit example and here's a closed newbie game with a town gambit example. The points that momo was trying to make against Jay - checking wiki + delay + Elsa should've known their role & denied immediately w/o wiki checking = scummy - was a far reach.

In spite of the hindsight of the NK on Jay, the gambit momo pulled off on Jay wasn't that game advancing towards finding scum, and did little to affect on my read on him.

-

Why did Hawk jump down on your list?

1096 is what caused him to jump down. Compared to D1, Hawk's voting behavior on D2 doesn't quite match. Since making that big post, he's played more into the pattern he established in D1, voting and then giving explanations usually within 3 or 4 posts - if not in the same post - after casting a vote.

-

Do you have any thoughts on VCA and the different wagons yesterday? Primary ones were Jay, Red, AssembleScreenplay, and Creature.

Jay Wagon

- Based on memory, this one was based off of Jay's claim at survivor player mindset + momo's gambit 427 and ended when Jay falsely claimed to be the vigilante.

Red Wagon

- Lots of traction in the beginning - 177 & 252 - and then died off 292 when Jay came under fire for their play style. Red's posting style was scummy and I believe that those posts earned the votes against him.

Assemble/Screen Wagon

- Screen's 876 promised that he would commit the effort when needed. Unless he said that he would

never

read the thread, then I think that that would warrant the cold response Screen received. I find the reasons for the Screen wagon as said in 1115 and summarized in 1237 to not be the most compelling ones. As the starter of the wagon, fitz never gave a compelling enough reason in 1077 beyond "feels weird" and the D1 wagon was lackluster. Except for Impede's reason which was to get content out of Assemble 446 which was fair, all things considered.

Creature Wagon

- Wasn't meta used to shoot down some of Creature's counter points?

-

If you're into setup spec/logic/mafia theory, it'd be nice to have someone else to talk to on this. Especially regarding the list of roles that I'd like claims from.

Sure. But first can you explain this?

In post 1177, Mathdino wrote:7 T's is impossible because our Tracker got shot.

In post 1180, sheepsaysmeep wrote:there's a dead tracker
there has to be at least one I

Specifically how the ratio of T's affects the I.

AnonymousGhost · Post Post #1294 (isolation #15) » Sat Jan 13, 2018 9:43 am

@Sheep

The deadline for Day Two is in 10 days.

Momo's wagon has 3 votes on it. Four, if I wanted to cast my vote right now without having done the Kop case that I promised Dino.

It only takes 6 to lynch.

I don't know how many scum are alive.

Theoretically, if there's two of them, they could perform a quick lynch and end the Day.

I don't think I need to tell you that that's bad news bears.

AnonymousGhost · Post Post #1297 (isolation #16) » Sat Jan 13, 2018 9:48 am

Saltiness.

If you'd read my post,

not just skimmed it

, you'd notice that I'm in the process of building a case against momo.

AnonymousGhost · Post Post #1300 (isolation #17) » Sat Jan 13, 2018 9:51 am

In post 1298, UnaBombaH wrote:Tacos/red or something.

?

AnonymousGhost · Post Post #1302 (isolation #18) » Sat Jan 13, 2018 9:52 am

AnonymousGhost · Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:18 pm

No I am not the Tracker, Gunsmith, or 1-shot Commuter.

AnonymousGhost · Post Post #1353 (isolation #20) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 3:10 am

@Kop - Here's my case on momo.

In post 1290, AnonymousGhost wrote:momo - His early statement that he doesn't believe in town reads was ironic given that he handed a few of those out throughout D1. 683 and 717 are hedgy. Momo claims (683) that both Impede and Creature are scum, but says that Impede should be lynched first because of "more info" but doesn't explain what sort of information we could gain.

Momo says this again and again but never explains what sort of information we'd gain. At a later point when Impede's wagon is loosing traction, Momo undermines his statements on Scum!Impede saying that Impede is not the scummiest lynch candidate. Instead, favoring a Creature wagon saying that "he has more content than redflavor in the effort to make himself appear towny, but is scummy" (717). He undermines this again in 729 when he address that "While I think both - (Creature & Impede) - are scummy ... i think impede flip, no matter what it is, provides more information which we could use right now" with no mention of RedFlavor at all

AnonymousGhost · Post Post #1354 (isolation #21) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 3:13 am

In post 1298, UnaBombaH wrote:I'd also like address my reads in full, but mobile posting Sucks, so I'll try later.

@Una - Still haven't heard a peep from you about this.

AnonymousGhost · Post Post #1368 (isolation #22) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 6:22 am

In post 1365, Mathdino wrote: 1. Hypocrisy is not a scumtell, you should know this. Don't surface-level scum hunt.

You're right. It's not.

4. So your case against momo is that he doesn't make sense? Because congrats, gottem I guess? How is not making sense a scumtell?

That's basically it.

If someone doesn't make sense they're either lying - which is a scum indicator -; misinterpreting information which deserves scrutiny to discover if it was intentional misrepresentation to fit a predetermined conclusion - which begs the question of 'why?' -; or if it was genuine and the player needs to be clarified on an issue or needs to clarify the points that they're presenting.

In post 1314, Hawk wrote: Momo votes are sus but
momo naturally has sloppy play as scum and as town,
so I'm not surprised I'll do more later.

Taking this into account, I would like to verify the bolded w/ you Dino. Is that true?

If so, then I am reading him wrong.

AnonymousGhost · Post Post #1370 (isolation #23) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 6:27 am

@Math

- Not making any sense is a towntell imo.

How so?

- If you want me to go read some games, I can.

I'll take a look at his topics and do a read for myself, but thanks.

AnonymousGhost · Post Post #1375 (isolation #24) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 6:40 am

Independent of 1228, 1260, and 1348, I'm going to take a look at the Dino Defense of Impede and everyone who was "gunning" for an Impede lynch. I would like to check the 'where' and 'when' in which the currently living people who were convinced that Impede was scum "conceded" to your argument i.e. Momo, Sheep, Kop, and fitz. I think Kop was the last one to say something out of all the rest, but I need to check this.

PEdit:

Thanks for sharing that Dino.

AnonymousGhost · Post Post #1415 (isolation #25) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 2:26 pm

@Screen

Can you explain why Kop, Hawk, and fitz are in that list?

AnonymousGhost · Post Post #1419 (isolation #26) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 3:32 pm

Well okay then.

AnonymousGhost · Post Post #1428 (isolation #27) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 4:11 pm

Screen's play style reminds me of Wisdom's. From Literally Mafia.

Pedit:

@Dino

I got "knocked out" after a major headache wouldn't go away and took a nap. My bad.

I can answer those things. In the process of cataloguing the people vs Dino & Impede, but I will get to it.

- I think we have about half the playerlist on approximately the same page {Math, Impede, fitz, momo, Hawk}

Is that page talking about the possibilities now that you've narrowed it down to only one scum and the SK?

- Reevaluation of momo scum read: Thanks for breaking my case down. If that's just momo's play style then I can understand why he's labeled as the most mislynchable player on the site. My scum read is gone and a bit of a town lean is beginning to form. I don't think scum would make themselves that obvious for being this gun-ho about lynching people due to the potential backfire.

- Reevaluation of set up given 1 mafia: I've never tried doing association hunting before and I wasn't trying to look for one before you "broke" the setup. I still want to take a look at the People vs Impede - preferably when I don't have a massive head ache - because I think the pattern of people conceding to your case of town, or was it Impede's meta?, Impede is a starting point. If someone in that group of people was the mafia, then I would think they'd want to fly under the radar. To do that, they'd need to do what everyone else was doing and agree w/ your POV.

- Thoughts on Sheep's behavior: Meh. Glad that the kid finally posted something longer than 3 sentences. I don't know what Sheep's meta is like beyond posting one liners, in fact I know no one's meta (probably a double edged sword), but WIFOM if Sheep was scum, the kid's making himself an obvious target by playing such a heavy defense on Screen.

- Kop lynch: I want to go back and do the thing that I promised. I would also like more discussion from some of the other players that we haven't heard from in a while i.e. Una, Kop, Hawk, and Impede. (I think that's all of them) about the current events and what their opinions are.

AnonymousGhost · Post Post #1430 (isolation #28) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 4:15 pm

If you say so Sheep.

AnonymousGhost · Post Post #1434 (isolation #29) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 4:22 pm

@Dino

- Wisdom

Ooh~ That explains a lot.

- Page

Thanks for explaining.

- Vote

Dude hasn't answered my question anyway, so... #pettyreasonsftw

VOTE: Kop

AnonymousGhost · Post Post #1436 (isolation #30) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 4:25 pm

Ooh...

That makes sense!

AnonymousGhost · Post Post #1459 (isolation #31) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 6:42 am

Taking a pause from my research to announce that

Sheep is currently at L-1.

AnonymousGhost · Post Post #1463 (isolation #32) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:26 am

Considering Kop's most recent post - 1460 - was made with the intention to

prevent

a potential hammer... The idea that Kop is scum has kinda fell flat in my mind. Still working on compiling that timeline while multitasking.

UNVOTE: Kop

AnonymousGhost · Post Post #1469 (isolation #33) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:42 am

In post 1, yessiree wrote:4. Be respectful to others; posts with the sole intent of insulting others are not tolerated

AnonymousGhost · Post Post #1471 (isolation #34) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:43 am

@Impede

Why is Una potentially not the SNK in your mind?

AnonymousGhost · Post Post #1472 (isolation #35) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:45 am

Well that abbreviation didn't work out...

AnonymousGhost · Post Post #1474 (isolation #36) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:49 am

Having a toxic attitude towards others doesn't help or make the game more enjoyable. Take a break and come back later.

AnonymousGhost · Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:11 am

In post 172, Almost50 wrote:
In post 168, Mathdino wrote:Unas town so there's 1/5 of your nulls solved
If this is true then I'm happy lynching any of the other 4 (assuming 3 Mafia + 1 SK).

I know I'm probably TRing one scumster (Scum to me = anti-town, not just group scum), but the chances are higher of hitting a baddie in these 4 still, as I believe Scum would be less motivated to be active during the holidays (it's a good excuse for low activity).

Rereading the thread and noticed that this is probably where the 3 mafi + 1 SK theory began circulating.

AnonymousGhost · Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:19 am

Fine......

I want a cookie for my efforts though.

Do you want me to look for anyone who's assuming either that the SK is around or that the SK isn't around?

AnonymousGhost · Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:27 am

Actually...

In post 72, Kop wrote:
In post 67, JaydragonKing wrote:... That's not the point if my death helps town. I like to fricken live. It's a natural instinct to want to survive.

Nobody understands me. Waahh!
Everybody wants to live, whether you be town, scum, or SK.

But if your town, dying isn't the be all end all but if it is beneficial and something comes from it, it is easier to take and accept. Remember, you are playing to your win con, if you die and it is achieved, reality is, you played your part.

In post 74, Impede wrote:Jay is the SK, that’s why he has a survivor wincon. Game solved. Great effort. Let’s go home guys

AnonymousGhost · Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:35 am

Creating a record of all the times that people mention 2 mafi, 3 mafi, SK, or no SK.

AnonymousGhost · Post Post #1535 (isolation #41) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 1:31 pm

In post 1530, Impede wrote:
In post 1513, AnonymousGhost wrote:Creating a record of all the times that people mention 2 mafi, 3 mafi, SK, or no SK.
Utterly non-game-related: Someone get her a medal please. Ghost is going to make my list of players I really want to play with again.

I take my payment in the form of cookies.

Related to the game: The lists - the people vs DinoPede & Kop, fitz, hawk, Screen, and Dino mentions of mafi #s + SK or no SK mentions - should be up in a few hours.

AnonymousGhost · Post Post #1543 (isolation #42) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 4:07 pm

Day One Mentions of 2 or 3 Scum Team + Mentions of SK or No SK

Spoiler: havingfitz

In post 247, havingfitz wrote:
Spoiler: Catch up -
So not much worth comment (IMO) up till the middle of page 2.

Post 38 by Kop seems a bit disingenuous so I voted him.

A little closer look shows Kop tends to participate in RVS when he makes an early appearance. Granted I do not recall if any of the few examples I found were him as scum…but there were def a few examples of him doing it as town.

I didn't care for Impede's Post 46 for the same reason I didn't like the Kop post. IMO if you think something might of happened in the game…and it can be ascertained fairly easily by looking for yourself…then to act a certain way in a post without just checking for yourself strikes a nerve with me.

wrt Math's post 54..I actually had reasons beyond policy lynching for voting Kop. I wouldn't endorse a PL on him unless he pulled a disappearing act or was being otherwise useless.

The survivor discussion is going on longer than it needed to….ffs.

Nice of Math to try moving things ahead in post 79. Not sure I cared for this post. Seemed a bit wishy washy on what “reads” he did provide.

Kind of like Impede calling out Math for calling him town.

Good post by Kop in post 90.

Hello Hawk. I neither missed or not missed you. Good to see you again.

wrt BigFinn’s contribution… <crickets>

I was starting to get tired of Jay’s game around post 115 and Math votes in in the very nex post. Makes me feel a bit better about Math. Seems like he is thinking similarly to me.

Liking Kop as of round page 6.

Almost50 is doing a lot of patting himself on the back.

Post 144 is more of Math saying stuff I am in line with. tr Math.

@ impede...why am I one of your two scum reads?

UnaBomb is just kind of in the game. Starting to suspect him a bit. (subsequent posts have me leaning town on him)

Almost50’s vote on Red feels like scum voting someone they know is going to flip town. (as Una notes in the next post…+ towards Una)

Jay’s post 178 makes me want to lynch him.

wrt Math’s post 179…good math you have there Math. In the right circumstances I like hypoclaims. This seems like a good game to do one.
If I am hider I will hide behind Assembler.

Not a fan of Jay’s hider chat (185, 187).

If I am hider I will hide behind RedFlavor.

Reads:

Townleans – Math, Una, Kop, …………………………..momo
Needs sorting (t-s) – Creature, Hawk, Assembler, Almost
Undecided….need to ISO - RedFlavor
Suspect – Jay, Impede

VOTE: Jay

Spoiler: Kop

Spoiler: MathDino

[quote="In post 173, Mathdino”]SNIP
Tbh if Kop is scum then Red is probably not scum with him but we have no information so fuck pre-flip associatives.[/quote]

In post 318, Mathdino wrote:SNIP

A50 and Hawk are in that boat (fitz too but less so since I'm townreading him); I could scumread them, and I'm having serious trouble reading them now, but that's D1 syndrome. When players like that are scum, I usually catch them D2.

Gimme a different scumread to work with.

In post 319, Mathdino wrote:I'm not comfortable coming up with a set of 3 consistent scumreads while there are still a few players that are unreadably inactive.

I agree with whoever said that this game doesn't really have anyone who *pops*. It's getting me to start thinking in good lynches rather than massive scumreads. Honestly, my only solid scumread is Red. Jay and maybe Creature are just good lynches.

In post 378, Mathdino wrote:
I don't really give a shit if they're lynched:

Impede: I'm almost convinced on him but not yet. I wanna see where this argument goes. Null for now.

Jaydragon: Not super readable, but is at least acting a little pro-town. Constantly holding a lynch over his head seems to have some utility, so here it is. I'm semi-convinced by Kop suggesting that we save Jay for tomorrow tbh.

Creature
: Upon ISOing him, throwing out townreads without having a real scumhunty goal in mind is a HUGE red flag for me.

@Creature:
You need to give scumreads. Right now, you're not really in the game.
_______________________________

God I feel bad but this is the only real scumread that's popped out:

RedFlavor
: I gave a case on him already. Posts since that case are all posts that I feel have some good scum motivation. Throwing suspicion while taking credit for an unpopular opinion (don't lynch Jay guys, that's ML bait).

In post 419, Mathdino wrote:I feel like a damn hypocrite for thinking this, because Impede is reacting almost exactly the same way I am, but if Jay flips scum, I'd be more than willing to check out Impede for scum.

In post 448, Mathdino wrote:Couple things for Jay on playing power role:

1. Do not say who you're going to shoot. This gives potential mafia bus driver an opportunity to swap your target with some random other person.
2. If it's incredibly obvious to everyone who you're gonna shoot (I'm not gonna coach you on vig strategies but a few things are pretty obv), a tactic I sometimes like to use is dice-shooting from a publicised list of 2 or 3 targets. This also gives hiders the opportunity to decide not to hide behind someone you might shoot.
3. The fact that you exist makes it more likely there's a Mafia JOAT who'll roleblock you. So if you get RB'd, and you're still alive, you'll get another chance to shoot on N2. If you haven't shot by then, we're obviously lynching you.

Edit: Hardclaim was the right call. By posting intent to hammer I was essentially asking for one.

In post 463, Mathdino wrote:@sheep: I wouldn't worry about it. A50's logic is pretty much balls. New reads list in order looks like:

Town: Jay, Una, momo, fitz, Kop
Null-town: sheep, Hawk
Null: Impede, A50, Creature
Scum: Red, Assemble

In post 469, Mathdino wrote:For anyone interested, Binomial Theorem and probability shenanigans dictate that the chances for the mafia team are:

55.1%: Goon, Goon, JOAT
22.8%: Goon, JOAT, 1-shot Bus Driver
22.0%: Goon, 1-shot Bus Driver

In post 508, Mathdino wrote:So my best guess is... 2 scum off the wagon and 1 scum (Assemble) on the wagon. Something like that.

This reflects badly on Una, I'll concede that. His behaviour around Jay is really weird.
Giving A50 the benefit of the doubt. That's not a lynch that's happening today.
Hawk is null in relation to the wagon.
Creature hasn't contributed shit, so of course he wasn't on the wagon.
RedFlavor had kind of a random reason to strong townread Jay. Might be confbias but this counts as the "scum who suspiciously knows Jay is town".
Kop had really good reasons for being off the wagon I think. However, the Kop-scum situation I can think of is "Jay might be SK, so let's wait til tomorrow to see if we should lynch him". Paranoia.

Of those on the wagon:
I'm town. ISO me if you wanna do my blurb.
havingfitz had a whole bunch of reasons. His vote seemed to have purpose.
sheep's vote was explicitly for pressure. Says he got a bad OMGUS afterward. I believe this.
Impede voted in response to Jay's case on Creature, says it was full of OMGUS. Didn't like the survival play. Impede is a controversial topic. Not gonna go too far into this until I have something more readable.
momo fucking clearly believed he was onto something.
Assemble's vote was obviously the most opportunistic point to jump on.

In post 651, Mathdino wrote:OKAY

So we have Impede fencesitting on RedFlavor, Impede soft-defending AND chainsaw defending Creature (while voting Jay as an alternative), RedFlavor throwing out a scumread on Impede, Creature fencesitting on Impede, Creature soft-defending RedFlavor, and RedFlavor voting/pressuring Creature.

So there's 2/3 of the scumteam in here right? Or am I crazy?

Spoiler: Hawk

In post 517, Hawk wrote:Omg finally caught up y'all like to wall post too much.

So jay is town.
I'm glad I wasn't here cause I would have voted him after momo' s remarkable display of out there logic that I wouldn't expect from scum ever.

Creatures lurking but usually at least puts forth things like forming his townlist. In the one scum game where I was scum with Momo and we had a hard distance created between the two of us Creature was just as quiet and Lurky but put forth a different kind of effort maybe he's turned off by all the walls. Idk.

Fitz I'll wait to evaluate further but I think he has a scumtell that I've noticed about his meta but don't want to say until I'm more certain...

Almost50 seems townish... not sure what to take on him. Up until his reaction to sheep voting Red I thought it was fine. All of that emotion in saying things are bad and players are playing bad felt fake on first read. Thus Townish? Maybe more null... idk that was the main scummy thing I saw maybe I'm just reading too much into it.

Sheep is a weak poster but I to disdain these walls. Makes quoting hard and analysis harder

Una is forgettable even when I read their posts so that feels scummy.

Assemble is probably scum. The vote post is super forced and bad.

VOTE: Assemble

Impede I need to look over again. And I could also do Creature.

In post 930, Mathdino wrote: i no longer agree with that statement, i'll be relatively un-okay with lynching impede tomorrow unless he starts acting scummy

at the time though i was mostly arguing with whoever suggested that impede/creature are scum together, and i was being like "no that sounds wrong, impedescum is consistent with creaturetown"

Edit: congrats you found my "nullreading then scumreading with the consensus then townreading upon actual analysis" behaviour

In post 960, Mathdino wrote:I'm getting cold feet on the Creature thing. This is half a compromise lynch. His reads are consistent with himself.

I'm beginning to think others (Kop, fitz) are more likely to flip scum but this is still the highest utility.

I think it's important that Creature claim and push someone.

Spoiler: Screen

Day Two Mentions of 2 or 3 Scum Team + Mentions of SK or No SK - Before Dino Figured the Set Up

Spoiler: MathDino

In post 1084, Mathdino wrote:What? No. Is everyone playing lazy?

At the very least Una and Hawk's total ignorance implies town because they'd have had time to talk about this last night.

We agreed that regardless of who we lynch, we'd "close the loop". That is, whoever claims they'll hide behind Creature will instead hide behind Creature's target.

Creature claimed he'd hide behind Hawk so that means A50 should've hid behind Hawk. He made a post earlier indicating that he completely understood this and I made a post directing all the hiders in twilight. I see absolutely no reason to believe he'd diverge from his plan.

So either BOTH scum didn't realise this or talk about it at night, or Una/Hawk are both town.

In post 1085, Mathdino wrote:okay that also clears fitz

the question is do i believe that both mafia would be this lazy in their PR hunting

i'm amazing at PR hunting so i know i wouldn't but i legit don't know what people do as mafia without me

hmmmmmmmm

Okay so if I include all 3 of you in my townbloc that makes {me, Una, Hawk, fitz, momo} with outside nulltowner {Impede}. Creates a lynchpool of 4. {Kop, sheep, Screen, RedFlavor}.

Not satisfactory yet but this is actually a great start.

If anyone thinks that BOTH mafia are in {Una, Hawk, fitz} please say something

In post 1092, Mathdino wrote:
In post 1090, Impede wrote:Dumb. Dumb af.
Math may as well be conftown
. What’s your case?
WAIT NOPE DONT DO THIS TO ME DUDE I DONT WANNA GET PARANOID ABOUT YOU

explain this

if it's literally just because you townread me that doesn't make me conftown

also give me a scumteam

Edit: are you rolefishing me now what

In post 1095, Mathdino wrote: oh yeah and highkey though this probably still holds weight

caught the scum in {Creature, Red, A50} and i await momo's explanation for why CREATURE AND REDFLAVOR ARE DEFINITELY SCUM TOGETHER

but like, it's probably kop and screenplay honestly

can we get more kop votes pls

In post 1098, Mathdino wrote:Fitz is probably actually town. If you still want me to explain why he could be scum (or why I'm pretty sure scum's in {Kop, fitz}) lemme know.

Found this last night and this is a major pointer because I think I've found something that Creature wouldn't do intentionally. His apathy makes it unlikely to me that he was putting much effort into distancing.

In post 597, Creature wrote:
3- According to you, you have been working by PoE. Who do you still have in your lynch pool after removing your Town leans?
I agree with the townblock besides Hawk, so that leaves RedFlavor, Assemble, Kop, you, UnaBombaH and Impede. I'd probably remove Impede by myself.

In post 952, Creature wrote:momo town
Creature town
RedFlavor can be lynched
sheepsaysmeep town
Srceenplay town I guess

Kop null

Almost50 paranoid of
UnaBombaH seemed town
Hawk I remember not liking
havingfitz I remember townreading, but not sure now
Impede I haven't decided yet
Mathdino town
JaydragonKing town obviously
this is very clearly horrible, Kop is his ONLY nullread but is also in his lynchpool

anyway that's the only mention of Kop in creature's ISO but i'll get to Kop himself in a sec

In post 1151, Mathdino wrote:Wait fuck we're in potential MyLo if there are 3 mafia and 1 SK. What we need is a way of finding out, without the lone power role just outing themselves.

We also need PoE. I think a partial massclaim is in order. We only need one claim to definitively prove the 1T theory.

If you are any of the following roles, please ONLY ONE OF YOU (ideally the scummiest) claim now so we know:

1-shot Tracker
1-shot Commuter
Vengeful
Vigilante
Gunsmith

My logic is that 5 PRs remaining MUST be distributed among Investigation, Protection, Hiding, Killing, and Flavour Cop. Since we already have a dead investigation, one of these categories MUST have doubles by Pigeonhole Principle.

I obviously claim none of those or I would've said something by now.

In post 1153, Mathdino wrote:i'm really not at the top of my game in this game

We're not in MyLo because we lynched scum. I was doing the math as if we'd lynched town.

Still, if we lynch town today that puts us in 6v2v1 and 2 town deaths creates a 4v2v1 LyLo in which we're forced to try to hit the SK, which is gross. I think it's important to know what setup we're playing.

In post 1157, Mathdino wrote:No yeah we're currently in 7v2v1, I fucked up, that's not LyLo/MyLo at all.

That said I still believe anyone with a role in that list should claim.

It's extremely important to remaining scumhunting to know if the mafia team has 3 members or 2.

If it has 3, and we have 5 town PRs remaining, this game might be breakable by massclaim.

Edit: Town lynch today results in LyLo. That much is clear.

In post 1175, Mathdino wrote:As a final addendum, if we prove by lack of claims that we're definitively in 5T (god I hope so), will that be good enough to you to clear me from that argument? If everyone pops in here and claims "I'm not any of those roles", I'll run the stats on the setups again, and I believe I can show that 5T is almost guaranteed from the spectator's perspective.

In post 1166, Hawk wrote:It fishes people who don't have a solid grasp of the setup or possible setups into admitting they may or may not have a roll. If you are the sole other mafia member calling for any amount of claiming under the premise we are in xv2v1 gives you a called shot and if you have one partner left you know that there is at least one of the roles you mentioned and you call it forward and if you manage to get lucky and pull an investigative (basically all of the ones you listed) and we are under 1t your JOAT can take a strongarm shot through protective rendering our newly claimed Town investigative more moot while waiting yourself up well enough as town leader.
Thanks for addressing the actual setup stuff. In terms of fishing people who don't have a solid grasp, I think EVERYONE should admit they may or may not have a role (WIFOM), and would be pretty vigilant in policing people to only claim yes/no to the roles in that list. My expectation is that most people are resistant to any types of claiming anyway, but c'est la vie.

If you're willing to follow, I'll show why scum would have a difficult time benefiting.

If I am the sole mafia member: Then it is literally almost impossible for most of those roles to exist (1-shot Tracker is the only possible one). That is why I'm asking only for those roles. If you'd like me to go through each role, let me know.

If I am in a 2 person mafia team: This is where it gets interesting. I don't know what you mean by "call it forward". On the suggestion that I would strongmankill whomever claims, why would I not have used the strongmankill on Jay? Knowing there are so many power roles (because I'd know it's 1T), wouldn't that be the correct time to use it? Ninja is useless because tracker is useless. And if I'm scum, unless you think my partner is in Jay's kill list, I have no reason to roleblock him and stop the vig.

To go through each roll I suggested:
1- shot Tracker: I would be really surprised if they hadn't used this already. Another part of the reason I wanted this claim is because I'm interested this result. Anyway if they already had used this, they function as a named townie, which isn't an ideal kill and would also prob be protected.

1-shot Commuter: Can avoid strongman kills and kills in general. Can also WIFOM when exactly they did or will commute. 1-shot Commuter claim is anti-scum.

Vengeful: Vengefuls should be lynched anyway. They didn't counterclaim Jay yesterday so I'm confident this doesn't exist.

Vigilante: HIGHLY suspect. I'd probably just lynch this unless we have a Vengeful to back this up. This is almost impossible.

Gunsmith: I will give you this, but it relies on 2 letters in the setup coming out of a 5% probability, which has a *gets calculator* ~3.0% probability.

Tracker: I will also give you this, but that relies on 2 MORE letters in the setup being a I (besides A50's I), which has a *gets calculator* ~9.8% probability. So not bad I guess.

So my conclusion is that my idea is only pro-scum if there's another Tracker out there.

Do you believe that I would attempt to implement a plan to benefit scum without doing prior calculations as to whether it's strictly anti-scum?
Furthermore, do you think I wouldn't try to use a massclaim to confirm myself in some way (whether by results or PoE)?
FURTHERMORE, if there are 5 PRs left (and 3/10 scum), do you really not think a massclaim would be a MASSIVE benefit? My intention if someone claims one of the roles I listed is to poll the town as to whether they want to create a massclaim that PoE's scum down so hard that scum/SK can't whittle down the confirmeds faster than we can lynch them. Many 1T setups under this semi-open are near breakable. It would depend on what the claims are.

In post 1178, Mathdino wrote: I still like this PoE. For those of you watching at home, by my own analysis, from a spectator's point of view, I'm in the {Assemble, Impede, Hawk} section.

If there's 1 mafia left, that implicates the Impede wagon and RedFlavor.

2 mafia implies, I think, {Screenplay, Impede, Hawk} and {Impede, Kop, fitz, Una, Red}.

Now that Kop is here, I have absolutely no motivation to complete the Kopcase, and will post the draft I had saved below for bookkeeping.

In post 1212, Mathdino wrote:
In post 1206, havingfitz wrote:@Math...why do you ask is people think BOTH mafia are in the three players you are
suggesting a townbloc with? (i.e. Una, Hawk, fitz) Why BOTH? Why not one? Is it BOTH or none for some reason? Also...why am I clear again?
All 3 of you fucked up in the same way. You didn't see that I had already directed A50's hider target, and he had, a long time ago, agreed to hide behind whoever Creature chose to hide behind if we lynched Creature.

This is not something that mafia doesn't notice. I'm townreading Una/Hawk already and I find it hard to believe fitz and some other mafia member doesn't catch that since it's literally in my last posts of the day. Now that only works if there's 2 mafia left, which I had been assuming for a while.

So basically either both mafia fucked that up somehow (meaning both mafia in the 3 of you) or neither did, because one of you would've been corrected by the other one in trying to decide the NK.

In post 1206, havingfitz wrote:@Math...why are we trying to figure out the set up exactly? Isn't the more information scum has to work with wrt what town has and who in town might have it a bad thing? I'm usually ok with the one off claim when a guilty happens or to avoid a
mislynch...but this seems early. Especially when scum might be on the ropes a bit already. Why help them any?
Scum already knows whether we have 1T or 5T. We don't. This is a massive scumhunting disadvantage and is evidenced by the above "neither or both" idea, which only works under 1T. Plus I'm pretty sure I can break the setup if this is 1T. Unfortunately this looks like it's gonna be a group super resistant to claims.
Honestly what's probably gonna happen at this point is whomever's on the stand will claim a PR and this will lead to desired massclaimesque strategy anyway to prove/disprove them.

In post 1206, havingfitz wrote:Math doing math. Moderately interesting but for what?
I was asked to calculate the probability of each setup. Made a few mistakes but found that, to an observer, 1T vs 5T is 50/50.

In post 1206, havingfitz wrote:@Math...why have you ruled out TTxxxxx? Also, I understand that TTTTTxx would be good because it
would mean we only have 1 mafia left (but also an SK)...but it would also mean town is down to their
last PR which would kind of suck. Wouldn't TTxxxxx be a better situation for town to be in?
Sure...there's a 3rd mafia (plus an SK)...but also 5 town PRs! Which sounds pretty sweet for town.
Look I'm trying to rule out 2T but if you keep waffling on claiming vig then I have no idea. The longer we wait, the significantly more effective it'll be for mafia/SK to fuck up our setup spec through planning and believable fakeclaiming. I'm at the point where I straight up won't believe any vigs that ever claim (and will assume they're SK instead) if you don't definitively claim in the next post.

In post 1206, havingfitz wrote:Damnit Math...what is the benefit to a vig claiming? If there is a vig and they claim...then what? They die tonight? How is that a good thing?
[catty]hey dude if you're vig then dying tonight is pro-town based on switch [/catty]

If there's a vig then we know there's no SK, which means we're for sure in 2T. This is a HUGE advantage when the inevitable massclaim comes because we'll be able to popcorn and sort everyone into potential PRs and VTs. This creates lynchpools. If scum all claims VT, then all our PRs (as long as the setup makes sense) are confirmed. If scum starts claiming some PRs, we'll know (because the setup won't make sense), and then we either confirm all the PRs or see if any scum can still be VTs. I've thought this through, lol.

Vig should probably be protected tonight if there is one but I really heavily don't believe there's a vig based on dayplay thus far so I'm really not concerned with people claiming not vig.

In post 1206, havingfitz wrote:I do not like all the setup stuff Math is doing. I would be much more likely to participate if I knew the benefit to town. I assume it's to try and back mafia or an
SK into a corner? But does claiming not seem incredibly useful for scum? ???????????
This is a pretty good tl;dr of what I'm trying to do. Most semi-opens are broken in half by massclaim if enough PRs are alive.

I've given up on getting everyone to claim from my fancy list because clearly a bunch of people are gonna decide it's more worth their time to argue with me over it than do the simple process. If we find scum, they'll probably claim PR, and that's good enough for me.

In post 1206, havingfitz wrote:Oh...and
I am not the vig
.
But if I was I wouldn't tell you.
This is ridiculous. If you're on the stand and claim vig later you won't be believed (no reason to think you're not SK, and you should've cc'd Jay). Please be clear.

In post 1235, Mathdino wrote:like it's probably impede or una actually since they're both clearly not mafia
idk if una kills his scumreads as scum tho

and yeah fitz is weird but one of you 3 is gonna get shot i'm sure so i don't really care about looking there yet

can i get a good case on scum-motivation-sheep that makes this more than a policy lynch
he's annoying by default but that's not lynchworthy in itself. null-scum to me

reads list (for mafia not SK)

momo
Hawk
Impede
Una

fitz
sheep
Ghost (by slot not by her)

Kop
Screenplay

Kop/Screenplay would be a weird fucking team so I'm not doing the momo-style "All my scumreads are scum" thing. But Screenplay seems most likely to flip scum.

In post 1311, Mathdino wrote:
In post 1264, havingfitz wrote:
In post 1133, Mathdino wrote:Chance of 5 Ts: 6/32 = 19%
In post 1165, Mathdino wrote:2. I no one claims any of the roles I listed, we are in TTTTT almost definitely, which is fantastic.
In post 1031, yessiree wrote:
Creature has been lynched.

Creature was a
Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver.
TTTTT = Mafia Goon,
Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver
, Serial Killer
1T is possible. The fact that no one claimed the roles I listed is useless because this playerlist seems to hate claim ideas. 1T would involve Maf Goon, Maf Bus Driver, Maf JOAT, and SK.

I'm heavily leaning towards doing the minimalist claim idea so we can definitively prove how many scum there are. There are more than a few players assuming one way or the other that can definitely be read based on which setup is correct.

Spoiler: Hawk

In post 1039, Hawk wrote:Almost 50 getting shot is unfortunate...

So we have an SK or does a real Vig want to claim one of those shots? Dino being alive is slightly unexpected as well but I suppose maybe Scum was worried about protectives.

Pedit: how did it mess up our hider strat?? Sorry I'm not great at setup strats. And don't get why it messed it up.

In post 1082, Hawk wrote:
I thought you didn't play a lot on weekends Fitz...
Did you and creature decide to be the most apathetic scum pair ever and see if town tears itself apart??

A50 hypoclaimed Creature as his hider target. So as far as Mafia knew they didn't know where he was hiding so shooting him would be the best chance tonight. Also Mafia would know if their is SK or not based off their role thread so shooting at a hider and missing would be fine cover if SK shot elsewhere

In post 1083, Hawk wrote:Actually wait no I'm wrong... Mafia wouldn't know if there is SK, I can't read these damn setups -_- I assumed that there was no 3 or 2 setup with both SK and 1shot bus but there is.

In post 1154, Hawk wrote: Double check your Math again... and then tell me if you're sure were in 6v2v1 lylo

In post 1162, Hawk wrote:Actually nah VOTE: Math Dino

Role fishing. Calling for a PR to claim in attempt to sort the setup. Implies he is VT or would claim VT if ran up.

Too much information. Messes up a conceivable amount of times with the setup spec but one thing remains consistent is that we are xv2v1. TTTTT is still a potential at a 50% rate. If Math is VT then he should lean even more heavily that we are TTTTT which only has 2 mafia and an SK. Making our current setup 8v1v1. But Math heavily believes we are 7v2v1.

Scum leader? Maybe... I don't like Screenplay either but as a scum player replacing in attempting to come in stand firm and vote towards the most widely townread player and call him scumleader?

someone correct me if I'm seeing things but this just feels right all of a sudden.

Pedit:.... Well you addressed my concern you were neglecting that 5t is 8v1v1.... but still :/

In post 1194, Hawk wrote:UNVOTE:

Not vig. Sufficient to say I'm not entirely convinced but I'm more willing to explore other options... Tho I swear to god Math Dino if that was an actual scumslip I'll never townread your shit again.

I'll post more later. Also sheep I thought slipped but it might be possible I was the only one semi following all the spec talk and caught that we can't assume 2 maf.

Also Impede were saying there is SK because at this point unless Fitz or Kop failed to claim everyone has chimed in that they aren't Vig or had ample time to claim.

In post 1209, Hawk wrote:Vig should only claim if they shot Jay or A50... Because it should in theory rule out any setup with an SK which is beneficial for Town.

If we leave it as is with a tracker flip scum team might know quite a bit more about the setup than we so and the # of potential PRs left.

That's the only reason Vig should claim.

In post 1210, Hawk wrote:But if no one's claiming vig then we should just for now assume we have an SK and play accordingly.

I actually at this point suggest we drop the Vig talk because far as I can see everyone claimed not vig.

Moving forward the setup is either 5t or 1t if we assume a serial killer at which point no one should claim shit now and we should move forward with analysis and lynching.

I don't like sheep. Didn't like Screenplay's predecessor but I want more from him a I can't read that slot well.

Kop I'm unsure of but Null is a good place. Impede Math and Fitz can be town for now if fitz keeps this up

Spoiler: havingfitz

In post 1206, havingfitz wrote:Catching up from my post 1081.

@Hawk...my weekends are usually little to no posting by me for family reasons but
I'm flying solo the next two weekends. So depending on what "more fun to do then mafia" things I can commit to...I should be able to carve out some time to do mafia stuff.

@Math...why do you ask is people think BOTH mafia are in the three players you are
suggesting a townbloc with? (i.e. Una, Hawk, fitz) Why BOTH? Why not one? Is it BOTH or none for some reason? Also...why am I clear again?

@Impede...I think Math is town but I don't think he is conftown by any means. I
assume Math is as active both as scum and town.
1114 tones it down. ok.

I like Impede's case on sheep.

@Math...why are we trying to figure out the set up exactly? Isn't the more information scum has to work with wrt what town has and who in town might have it a bad thing? I'm usually ok with the one off claim when a guilty happens or to avoid a
mislynch...but this seems early. Especially when scum might be on the ropes a bit already. Why help them any? And 1113,
1133,
1148,
1151,
1157, 1160,
1161, 1165,
1175...etc...etc...etc...

@Srceen...are you asking for our potential hider to claim?

Math doing math. Moderately interesting but for what?

@Impede...I think Math was still talking probabilities. Not saying there IS an SK. Just saying what conditions would need to be for one to exist.

The town tell discussion between Impede and Srceen is zzzzzzz

1158 by Hawk...exaaactly.

@Math...why have you ruled out TTxxxxx? Also, I understand that TTTTTxx would be good because it
would mean we only have 1 mafia left (but also an SK)...but it would also mean town is down to their
last PR which would kind of suck. Wouldn't TTxxxxx be a better situation for town to be in?
Sure...there's a 3rd mafia (plus an SK)...but also 5 town PRs! Which sounds pretty sweet for town.

@ sheep...there could be a vig who doesn't want to claim.

1187 by Impede has him cementing his town status for me. When I am town and
people are likeminded/in my head...I town read them.

Damnit Math...what is the benefit to a vig claiming? If there is a vig and they claim...then what? They die tonight? How is that a good thing?

@Kop...why as a vig would you have not shot the player who was claiming your role
to save his ass? Wouldn't that have been a preferred scum strategy to try and out a vig as a consolation to being lynched?

OK...caught up. I think my reads are still close to what they were a few days ago.

I do not like all the setup stuff Math is doing. I would be much more likely to participate if I knew the benefit to town. I assume it's to try and back mafia or an
SK into a corner? But does claiming not seem incredibly useful for scum? ???????????

smh....

Current reads:
Town - Impede, Hawk, momo
Town lean - Math and Kop...and I think Anonymous based on VCA review. Una
Scum suspects - Srceen and sheep.

Oh...and
I am not the vig
.
But if I was I wouldn't tell you.

In post 1228, havingfitz wrote:@Hawk...regardless of whether we are dealing with one or two remaining mafia I still think chances are they were off the Creature lynch. Everyone alive who was voting Creature was pretty committed based on votes alone. Red's hammer could have been construed as town cred
bussing but looking further back...Red was on Creature for the bulk of D1 and including two stints at L-1. That's pretty committed...ESPECIALLY if there are just two mafia in the game.

That's why I changed my read on Red. Impede and you pretty much for similar reasons. Math and momo were less committed but I still lean town on them as well.

As for a potential SK...I suck at hunting SK's so I usually just keep going after scummy people until my game is over. Or hope mafia do it for me. An SK in the game could very well be on the Creature lynch. I know there is still mafia in the game though so that's where my focus is.

In post 1260, havingfitz wrote:
In post 1258, Kop wrote:@Fitz, Red may have been on and off the Creature wagon, but that doesn't really spell anything. He could have easily been on and off believing that being on and off would make people doubt him. I'd have to double check the time stamps to when he jumped on and off, because I possibly think he may have joined the Creature wagon, then jumped off when something else came up but then jumped back on when he realised that his buddy was the inevitable lynch and hammered early to shut it down.
Kop...Red was not hopping on and off Creature. That was my point. There was commitment on Red's part to get Creature lynched. He did come off briefly to vote Una but he was on Creature from post 297 until 852. That is a shit load of opportunities to focus elsewhere. Jay was playing suspect as hell and Red stayed off that wagon. I didn't like Impede D1 and that wagon got up to L-2 with no Red vote on it. If Red was Creature's partner he had plenty of chances to make a legit move away from the Creature wagon. Especially when a large portion of the time Red was on it...it was at L-1 or L-2.

And if we are to believe there is no vig in the game as everyone has led Math to believe...then that means we have an SK and only ONE scum left. Which makes Red's presence (and everyone else for that matter) on Creature's wagon even less likely to be his scum partner. They could still be anti-town (SK) of course...but first things first IMO (i.e. get scum).

Also...
In post 1206, havingfitz wrote:@Kop...why as a vig would you have not shot the player who was claiming your role to save his ass? Wouldn't that have been a preferred scum strategy to try and out a vig as a consolation to being lynched?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
To those not voting (Anon, Hawk, sheep)...why aren't you voting?

In post 1264, havingfitz wrote:
In post 1133, Mathdino wrote:Chance of 5 Ts: 6/32 = 19%

In post 1165, Mathdino wrote:2. I no one claims any of the roles I listed, we are in TTTTT almost definitely, which is fantastic.

In post 1031, yessiree wrote:
Creature has been lynched.

Creature was a
Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver.
TTTTT = Mafia Goon,
Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver
, Serial Killer
In post 1261, Mathdino wrote:
In post 1260, havingfitz wrote:And if we are to believe there is no vig in the game as everyone has led Math to believe...then that means we have an SK and only ONE scum left
Imagine being this wrong
Go read the setup again Fitz
Yes....imagine.

Spoiler: Screen

No mentions from Kop.

I need a nap. And a break.

AnonymousGhost · Post Post #1544 (isolation #43) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 4:12 pm

Timeline of the People vs DinoPede

Day One

312 - Fitz's suspicions on Impede

322 - Kop votes for Impede

361 - Impede’s case against Kop; no vote yet

460 - Impede defends himself against A50’s case

545 - Fitz votes for Impede

644 - Dino's records all of Impede and Red's interactions; suggests that they're either scum together or that Impede knows that Red is town

679 - Kop explains why he's happy with his vote on Impede

683 - momo's explanation for his Impede vote

697 - Kop’s dissection of Impede’s behavior as not Town

715 - A50's case on Scum!Pede

716 - Dino's Defense/Breakdown of A50's case on Impede

717, 718 - Momo flips from Impede to Creature then back to Impede after seeing A50's case on Impede

729 - Momo says they're both scummy i.e. Impede and Creature

731 - Sheep unvotes until he hears Dino's response

810 - Dino's record of Impede on Una and breakdown of A50's case

815 - Further breakdown of A50's case on Impede by Dino

820 - A TL;DR versino of 815

857 - Kop is not swayed by Dino's case of town!Impede meta

Day Two

1077 - Fitz agrees w/ Math's case that Impede is likely town

1138 - Kop is willing to accept Math's case on Impede for now, but says that that slot is something that he'd still like to progress down

My sleep deprived analysis's starting point is the fact that Kop is the last one to concede to Dino's POV about Impede's meta, compared to Fitz. Momo never says a peep about Dino's case and is more swayed by A50's case iirc - not fact checked. My train of thought is that scum would want to blend in and to do this they'd need to follow the proverbial crowd and go w/ Dino's POV. I'd need to check the rest of Kop's ISO to see if the rest of his posts align with this theory though.

AnonymousGhost · Post Post #1546 (isolation #44) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 4:21 pm

@Math

It'll come. I'm burned out right now. X.X

As in, the burned out where my vision is kinda getting fuzzy... Probably not a good sign.

AnonymousGhost · Post Post #1550 (isolation #45) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 4:39 pm

Hide behind Una.

AnonymousGhost · Post Post #1552 (isolation #46) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 4:50 pm

Adding onto this,

Hiders can also choose their theoretical target based on whether or not they believe their chosen target is the

SK. The theoretical Hider will die if they hide behind the SK.

AnonymousGhost · Post Post #1553 (isolation #47) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 5:51 pm

@Mod - Please replace me.

Sorry to do this to you guys. I hope you find a replacement in a reasonable amount of time! It's been an uphill battle putting in recent effort. Sadly this wouldn't improve over the course of the game, judging by my upcoming schedule change. It would not fair for you or me if I couldn't participate due to lack of time and motivation.

Anyway!

Good luck chickadees!

~ Ghost

AnonymousGhost · Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:11 am

Freedom!

Even though my faction didn't win, it was such an achievement to go from scummiest slot to towniest!

Because I was obviously doing something right to be getting town read from an almost impossible situation.

@Math - The funny thing was after I left and D2 was in it's twilight, when Screen accused you of forcing a PR to claim, it just occurred to me that I could've done that. XD When you brought up the Hider claim, I was more concerned about someone hiding behind me, specifically the REAL hider, and then dying because I was Mafia rather than gaining the possible credit for claiming a fake PR role and gaining further credit. All in all, probably a good thing I never claimed because town had a role cop. ;D

Big big thanks to the Mod for putting up with all of my monologues! You're great!

And a big thanks to Gamma for replacing in! Thanks for a fantastic game peeps!

~ Ghost

AnonymousGhost · Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:20 am

In post 1823, Mathdino wrote:Creatscum+Redscum was kind of an autoloss for that team.

I can't speak for fitz or my team mates, but I think the fact that my red slot swung from scummiest to towniest just because I was more active than my predecessor. I don't know how many games you've played as scum before Red, but you were making some of those classic newbie scum mistakes.

You were too opportunistic at times, too quick to buddy alongside a noisy player's case, and didn't add much of your own thoughts to the game. You tried to be inconspicuous... in the most conspicuous way possible. Being good as scum takes practice. I think it's safe to say that everyone has a steep learning curve - claimed bomb my first scum game... Boy did that backfire on me spectacularly...

I would say that because this game had a good chance - especially after D1 when the 2 NKs came in - of scum looking like town because of the SKs presence. Instead of hunting for suspicious town, Mafia could've hunted for the SK - a little like actual Werewolf where you don't know who you're buddies are - and pulled off looking like town. It's what I did. Granted, I pinned my suspicions on the town cop. Whoops. But you get the picture.

AnonymousGhost · Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:21 am

@Mod - If I'm considered Mafia, I'm cool with it.

AnonymousGhost · Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:24 am

@Impede

Same here!

AnonymousGhost · Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:34 am

In post 1835, Impede wrote:I think it's hilarious that Ghost towned it up so hard that she got her slot killed by SK.

Same here~ XD

I did feel bad for Gamma though.

After the slot got shot though, I think that that was guaranteed a town win. Too many people had played a good town game to where fitz could hide among them without being noticed.

AnonymousGhost · Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:37 am

In hindsight of Kop's gameplay now that his role is revealed a lot of those actions make sense from a PR perspective! Big props to Kop for playing his role to the "C"! Literally!