Team Mafia 2018: White Flag — Day Six

[Llamarble]

In some order, we are lynching Tchill, the entire Gamma wagon (CES AD LQ) and Eddie.
Scum are going to NK TSQ, Me and / or Postie, NSG / Ran
That's 5 lynches; we get 6. If we haven't won the game with those 5, the people still alive at that point can reevaluate.
If somehow those 5 players are all town, then well played scum. Team would have to be like Marquis Postie NSG or something.
In fairness, NSG scum is more plausible than I was thinking; her ISO is essentially just some reads and reasons.
NSG mostly works on Eddie and CES teams and such though.

The lylo that would leave is:
Marquis
Dunnstral
Lycan
Davsto
Gamma

Give whoever you lynch the day before lylo (CES if he makes it that far) the right to pick the lylo lynch if they flip town. Otherwise elect somebody to control all the lylo votes.
Town MUST all 3 get it right, if game goes to lylo, so they need some preexisting mechanism to agree and stack their votes or else scum have a 90% chance of winning in 2/3 lylo.
And once again, do not assume someone who lacks a good possible buddy must be town. I was universally scumread in Whiteflag 1 and won as scum because Mith distanced from me successfully and it looked like nobody could be my partner.

I can see LQ flipping town. I can see AD flipping town, maybe. I can see Tchill flipping town if all the scum are on the gamma wagon.
CES I can't really see flipping town here, but I'm also too lazy and not reliable enough at reading him to try to lynch him D1. If alive in lylo, all votes go on him please.
Eddie is probably where my next big timechunk of reading should go.

[Dunnstral]

It's time to slow down

[Marquis]

Skimming while freezing weather walking in preparation for actually coming through with a read tonight

Need to say before I forget that it feels like lq and gamma keep distancing, just not sure if it's so obvious because they're scum or obvious because they're town, I'm only partially applying burden of skill here. Oops

[LicketyQuickety]

Tell reck I don't have the signature I have fo no reason. And there's no way he can understand that quote by Nacho because reck has never played a single game with me.

This isn't really a response. How does being a non-traditional player relate to what Reck accused you of, pumping the breaks on Marquis when you had no marked reason or progression to?

You are mixing things up terribly and not understanding what my primary points are.

Being a non-traditional player has to do with Recks read on me because he is basing how he is reading me under the assumption that I follow the norm when I do not. It's a read based on play, which I talked about, which means he is using general markers to read me as opposed to understanding the mindset behind my posts. He literally cannot get inside my head applying logic that follows what the norm is. My posts are very articulate and most people do not understand what I am saying because they don't assume a standard mindset. Me pumping the breaks on Marquis I already talked about, which I have continued to talk about, namely wagonomics. I am using a different methodology that is not used here often (analyzing wagons and what they stand for and what they mean in isolation of other events). People don't do that very much if at all on this site but it happens all the time on MU. The Marquis wagon needed to be contemplated more, that's why I put the breaks on it. Random unsubstantiated pressure on a slot rarely yields any valid results and the results it mostly gets is just fostering confbias for that player.

Didn't Marquise say they were going to be around today? What happened there? And their wagon is now collapsed. I expect some good posts from Marqu.

I would understand your feeling here if you were having trouble generating reads, but it seems you already had some leads. You didn't really do anything with your Tchill vote.

You're talking as tho I should have well substantiated reads at the point in time I made that post. What gives you the idea that that should be a reality? Lurking players hurt Town. When a lurky player says they are going to produce content, but then don't that should raise suspicion. Do you disagree with that? If you don't then I don't know why you make this point in the first place.

VOTE: marquis

So this vote, it shows me you aren't really trying to sort people. You stick

I am walking a tightrope here between trying to pressure people who are not active so I can get a read on them and trying to decide who out of the people who are active that I SR. You should be able to see how this creates complications in the confidence level of any read I might have considering if you have 1/3 of the players in the game not giving enough content to get a decent read on in how this effect my reads on the active players. Seriously this is not brain surgery.

I think Chill is still very much within his Scum range, is the TL;DR version.

Chill is good at blending in as Scum and tends to make his reads match what benefits him at the time he makes those reads. If someone is TRing him, he may TR them back. If it looks like a Townie is taking pressure, he may throw shade on them. Basic Scum play 101, but he does it in a way that doesn't look too opportunistic and generally gives just enough reason for the reads so people don't question his reads. I said as much in a different game I played with him.

This is the most I have seen you talk about Chill's play here. Yet in your #199 you don't state Chill in a reads list. You then FOS Shea, then you wonder where Marquis is at. Then this:

VOTE: marquis

You vote Marquis, but don't give a reason for leaving Tchill. You never really attack Tchill, you only interact with him after he responds to you. I want to know why you haven't gone into his actual play this game, rather then hedging around him.

I've not hedged on Chill, not really. I've made my opinion very clear on him a number of times. I mean, if you are looking for me to just say "Yes, Chill is guaranteed to be Scum" that is just not going to happen in a game this complex. It would be nice if I could just give black and white reads, but things are not that simple. What I said about Chill in the first part of this section was to give eye's to Town in what to look for in Scum!Chill. I think that sort of thing is incredibly useful, but YMMV.

Honestly I have seen so many Scum use the argument "No, don't go after lurkers, it's pointless" This is not a Town mindset to have because at what point DO we go after lurkers? If we don't go after lurkers today, then when? Because lurkers hurt Town really really badly late game.

We lynch scum. Lurking is null. If you have any content to read them by, use that. I don't see anything suspicious from Marquis. Also, better to go for lurker D2 if you have suspicious leads D1, for information and connections.

Right, but you cannot assume that the lurkers are not Scum. Scum lurk as a strategy quite commonly. Like I said before, when 1/3 of the players in the game are not giving enough content to be able to even get an idea of if they are acting Scummy or Townie, that is a real problem that has to be dealt with. You can't ignore small things like this because small things become big things and then they turn into something so terrible it doesn't even resemble what the first problem was. Yes, I am being dramatic here, but it's to make a point. Lurkers are a small problem now, but if they go unattended, then then become a very very big problem. You are essentially advocating that we sweep the lurker problem under the rug. What makes you think this is the correct approach?

You realized you've put your own spin on my motivation without considering things like how I approach the game in general right? Does no one read wiki's anymore? You know I go by Quick, go read that wiki to find out why I am pressing you.

I am not necessarily SRing you, no. I am trying to get a read on you and poking you is one way to do that. I consider you Null at this point in time. Last time I gave you a TR you ended up being Scum so I am not as quick to label you as Town this time around. I'll have to review what people said after I threw some accusations your way.

Lycan uses a lot of colorful wording, but there is a disconnect between what he is representing with enough solid backing that I think he is just creating stories for motivation instead of looking at all possibilities.

It doesn't read like you are trying to get a read on Shea.

If you were you would have

completed the earlier conversation he asked you about re: Reck and his separate methods of coming to reads. I don't think referring us to your wiki is a valid defense, you haven't really explained your actions in game.[/quote]

How do you know this? This is exactly the type of misrepresentation of my motivation that I have been talking about.

Mostly how this is working is that I am kinda doing my own thing with this game and the others are working on their games together. It's just the way it worked out. I have asked them a couple questions about this game, but for the most part, I am working alone here and my teammates are working together on the other ones. I am mostly there to take care of keeping things in context so they don't get carried away with going too far off course in thinking about being strategic in how to approach things. I am basically the guy who is taking a big picture, stand back approach and just trying to keep them on course.

What is the point of you guys being in a team in team mafia then if you are playing solo? It's like playing solo q when you are in a team, which means no synergy.

You are equating playing a moba to playing mafia. This could have potentially been really confusing if my brother didn't play Dota 2 because you gave no context into what you were talking about.

I am largely and independent person. I have a lot of reasons that I naturally act in my own accord rather than engaging in a group. This is a personality based thing where you are once again, assuming what applies to most people applies to me as well. It just happened to work out this way, which I have stated. I don't see how this forwards getting a read on me one way or another unless you are again making another assumption that I am getting more feedback from my teammates than I am representing, which I am not which makes making the point that I am very difficult to do.

And I know why people are Scum reading me. I think Lycan hit on this point and so did Postie a bit.

It's because people are interpreting my play as "mechanical" and for some reason they thing this means I am Scum. Instead, I would say I am trying to play in a logical way with a big picture outlook on the game. That means I am not going to get into specifics of relating what Player X did at point A and compare that to what Player Y did at Point B. I have never played that way so if people expect me to play that way, I am sorry to say that they will be disappointed.

How I play is looking at posts in isolation and seeing if they are internally logical insofar of what I know to be logical comparing this to what I think is the correct way to play

. I sometimes compare a post they made somewhat recently to what they are saying, but I am not going to remember something that someone said on page 5 at this point. I will, however, ISO players occasionally and I will usually do this if someone asks me to.

Bold Underlined, what have you ISO'd about Tchill and Marquis?

I don't think I have ISO'd either of those players in depth. I never claimed that I absolutely would ISO people.

VOTE: tsq

Did you ISO TSQ here? This seems like omgus again. He has a problem with your play, and you seem to misrepresent his argument. If you misunderstood and explained why you misunderstood, it would be fine but you ignore the fact that it may have been, and you vote Shea.[/spoiler]

Here's the next ten pages (with a few quotes from previous pages because I had to go backwards to understand things better). I'm going to catch up with the next ten pages, then give reads and a vote.

Again, OMGUS is NOT a Scum tell. Tell me why you think it is. I am not even saying that I am OMGUSing TSQ, but since that is your argument, then I will approach this one head on and ask you why you think OMGUS is a Scum tell.

The problem with what Shea actually meant is still under investigation. I have my suspicions, but he is not giving me a straight answer.

[Marquis]

UNVOTE: think I forgot to earlier

Pedit if you're really town what you can do is stop posting so much words : )

[Thestatusquo]

In some order, we are lynching Tchill, the entire Gamma wagon (CES AD LQ) and Eddie.
Scum are going to NK TSQ, Me and / or Postie, NSG / Ran
That's 5 lynches; we get 6. If we haven't won the game with those 5, the people still alive at that point can reevaluate.
If somehow those 5 players are all town, then well played scum. Team would have to be like Marquis Postie NSG or something.
In fairness, NSG scum is more plausible than I was thinking; her ISO is essentially just some reads and reasons.
NSG mostly works on Eddie and CES teams and such though.

The lylo that would leave is:
Marquis
Dunnstral
Lycan
Davsto
Gamma

Give whoever you lynch the day before lylo (CES if he makes it that far) the right to pick the lylo lynch if they flip town. Otherwise elect somebody to control all the lylo votes.
Town MUST all 3 get it right, if game goes to lylo, so they need some preexisting mechanism to agree and stack their votes or else scum have a 90% chance of winning in 2/3 lylo.
And once again, do not assume someone who lacks a good possible buddy must be town. I was universally scumread in Whiteflag 1 and won as scum because Mith distanced from me successfully and it looked like nobody could be my partner.

I can see LQ flipping town. I can see AD flipping town, maybe. I can see Tchill flipping town if all the scum are on the gamma wagon.
CES I can't really see flipping town here, but I'm also too lazy and not reliable enough at reading him to try to lynch him D1. If alive in lylo, all votes go on him please.
Eddie is probably where my next big timechunk of reading should go.

I think your lynch math is wrong here.

[LicketyQuickety]

In some order, we are lynching Tchill, the entire Gamma wagon (CES AD LQ) and Eddie.

Why?

Scum are going to NK TSQ, Me and / or Postie, NSG / Ran

How do you know this?

That's 5 lynches; we get 6. If we haven't won the game with those 5, the people still alive at that point can reevaluate.

It's D1 and you are assuming that you have already solved the game. This is a problem.

If somehow those 5 players are all town, then well played scum. Team would have to be like Marquis Postie NSG or something.

This is prolly the dumbest thing said in the thread so far, so congrats on that.

In fairness, NSG scum is more plausible than I was thinking; her ISO is essentially just some reads and reasons.

Yeah, reads and reasons, what are those good for anyways?

NSG mostly works on Eddie and CES teams and such though.

I have no idea what you are even talking about. List some examples.

The lylo that would leave is:
Marquis
Dunnstral
Lycan
Davsto
Gamma

How the fuck are you saying that you know what the LyLo players left are going to be on D1? Irreprehensible. You have not even come close to demonstrating that you have the level of competence to be able to figure this out.

Give whoever you lynch the day before lylo (CES if he makes it that far) the right to pick the lylo lynch if they flip town. Otherwise elect somebody to control all the lylo votes.
Town MUST all 3 get it right, if game goes to lylo, so they need some preexisting mechanism to agree and stack their votes or else scum have a 90% chance of winning in 2/3 lylo.
And once again, do not assume someone who lacks a good possible buddy must be town. I was universally scumread in Whiteflag 1 and won as scum because Mith distanced from me successfully and it looked like nobody could be my partner.

I can see LQ flipping town. I can see AD flipping town, maybe. I can see Tchill flipping town if all the scum are on the gamma wagon.
CES I can't really see flipping town here, but I'm also too lazy and not reliable enough at reading him to try to lynch him D1. If alive in lylo, all votes go on him please.
Eddie is probably where my next big timechunk of reading should go.

OK, so what was you point again?

[Llamarble]

Put simply I want to set things up D1 to ensure a town win, so I am thinking a few moves ahead. I don't have a very long shelf life as town.
Your post essentially says "I find it annoying that you're thinking far ahead." Which offers even less value than my post
Lynch math - 15 -> 13 -> 11 -> 9 -> 7 -> 5 = 5 lynches; if we've hit scum with those 5 we get an additional lynch.

[LicketyQuickety]

Put simply I want to set things up D1 to ensure a town win, so I am thinking a few moves ahead. I don't have a very long shelf life as town.
Your post essentially says "I find it annoying that you're thinking far ahead." Which offers even less value than my post
Lynch math - 15 -> 13 -> 11 -> 9 -> 7 -> 5 = 5 lynches; if we've hit scum with those 5 we get an additional lynch.

You haven't demonstrated that you have the ability to think that far ahead! You haven't articulated half of why you have stated the outrageous claims that you have. What value does you post offer in terms of utility for someone who doesn't just take your word for it? Zero!

[LicketyQuickety]

Put simply I want to set things up D1 to ensure a town win, so I am thinking a few moves ahead. I don't have a very long shelf life as town.
Your post essentially says "I find it annoying that you're thinking far ahead." Which offers even less value than my post
Lynch math - 15 -> 13 -> 11 -> 9 -> 7 -> 5 = 5 lynches; if we've hit scum with those 5 we get an additional lynch.

You haven't demonstrated that you have the ability to think that far ahead! You haven't articulated half of why you have stated the outrageous claims that you have. What value does you post offer in terms of utility for someone who doesn't just take your word for it? Zero!

And let's be clear, my point is that where the gamestate is not is not any indication that it will be the same for subsequent days. You are assuming erroneously so, that the game state is not going to change at all from this point in the game to the time the game is over. This is such short sightedness that it makes me think you are just trying to making noise to look like you are doing something.

Like for what you said... Based on WHAT do these things happen?

[LicketyQuickety]

@Eddie Fenix, what is Mastina's read on Llama?

[Llamarble]

I think I'm voting town.
VOTE: Tchill
Just do Tchill, when it flips red do CES.
Do AD or maybe LQ if game isn't over by then.

Based on what?
Nightkills go on people who are good at identifying scum and are never going to get lynched.
TSQ is playing well and obviously never getting lynched. If he's scum we'll just have to lynch his buddies.
I'm never getting lynched because I'm town, though if scum want to leave me alive to lylo, letting a player with my history of lynch control and lynch accuracy alive through 5 days, and I fail to win it by then, I will accept my own autolynch in lylo because I'll deserve it.
NSG and Ran and Postie are universal or near universal townreads.

Lynches go to people who are not obvtown or people who are scummy.
There are decent to very good reasons not to lynch Gamma Dunn Lycan Davsto and Marquis, but they aren't universal townreads either so they prob won't eat nightkills.
LQ Eddie Tchill CES AD are all widely scumread players (to varying degrees), for good reason. It's not hard to have a decent guess of where things are going.
Am I getting ahead of myself, sure. Am I really helping by posting this, maybe? I tend to just let my thoughts out in the thread a lot. It can be a little spammy sometimes unfortunately but I don't think there are many players who get as cosmically obvtown as I do so it's worth it to me.

[Llamarble]

If you think I'm exercising a lot of influence now, just wait until you try and make a lynch happen that I don't approve of lol.

[LicketyQuickety]

I think I'm voting town.
VOTE: Tchill
Just do Tchill, when it flips red do CES.
Do AD or maybe LQ if game isn't over by then.

Based on what?
Nightkills go on people who are good at identifying scum and are never going to get lynched.
TSQ is playing well and obviously never getting lynched. If he's scum we'll just have to lynch his buddies.
I'm never getting lynched because I'm town, though if scum want to leave me alive to lylo, letting a player with my history of lynch control and lynch accuracy alive through 5 days, and I fail to win it by then, I will accept my own autolynch in lylo because I'll deserve it.
NSG and Ran and Postie are universal or near universal townreads.

Lynches go to people who are not obvtown or people who are scummy.
There are decent to very good reasons not to lynch Gamma Dunn Lycan Davsto and Marquis, but they aren't universal townreads either so they prob won't eat nightkills.
LQ Eddie Tchill CES AD are all widely scumread players (to varying degrees), for good reason. It's not hard to have a decent guess of where things are going.
Am I getting ahead of myself, sure. Am I really helping by posting this, maybe? I tend to just let my thoughts out in the thread a lot. It can be a little spammy sometimes unfortunately but I don't think there are many players who get as cosmically obvtown as I do so it's worth it to me.

HOW DO YOU KNOW PEOPLE ARE GOING TO KEEP THE SAME READS ALL GAME!!!11!!!1one1

[LicketyQuickety]

If you think I'm exercising a lot of influence now, just wait until you try and make a lynch happen that I don't approve of lol.

I don't think anything you have recently said should influence almost anything about the way they view the game.

[LicketyQuickety]

UNVOTE: think I forgot to earlier

Pedit if you're really town what you can do is stop posting so much words : )

If I post less words, I am going to be even less understood.

[Gamma Emerald]

In some order, we are lynching Tchill, the entire Gamma wagon (CES AD LQ) and Eddie.
Scum are going to NK TSQ, Me and / or Postie, NSG / Ran
That's 5 lynches; we get 6. If we haven't won the game with those 5, the people still alive at that point can reevaluate.
If somehow those 5 players are all town, then well played scum. Team would have to be like Marquis Postie NSG or something.
In fairness, NSG scum is more plausible than I was thinking; her ISO is essentially just some reads and reasons.
NSG mostly works on Eddie and CES teams and such though.

The lylo that would leave is:
Marquis
Dunnstral
Lycan
Davsto
Gamma

Give whoever you lynch the day before lylo (CES if he makes it that far) the right to pick the lylo lynch if they flip town. Otherwise elect somebody to control all the lylo votes.
Town MUST all 3 get it right, if game goes to lylo, so they need some preexisting mechanism to agree and stack their votes or else scum have a 90% chance of winning in 2/3 lylo.
And once again, do not assume someone who lacks a good possible buddy must be town. I was universally scumread in Whiteflag 1 and won as scum because Mith distanced from me successfully and it looked like nobody could be my partner.

I can see LQ flipping town. I can see AD flipping town, maybe. I can see Tchill flipping town if all the scum are on the gamma wagon.
CES I can't really see flipping town here, but I'm also too lazy and not reliable enough at reading him to try to lynch him D1. If alive in lylo, all votes go on him please.
Eddie is probably where my next big timechunk of reading should go.

Can we slow down pretty please
Like I appreciate the dedication but if we get through a couple of those lynches and nothing turns up we should probably evaluate the situation then rather than wait until it gets into lategame to think things over

[Gamma Emerald]

Skimming while freezing weather walking in preparation for actually coming through with a read tonight

Need to say before I forget that it feels like lq and gamma keep distancing, just not sure if it's so obvious because they're scum or

obvious because they're town

, I'm only partially applying

burden of skill

here. Oops

What and what

[Gamma Emerald]

Anyway actually addressing Llamar's scumreads I take issue with, AD is a townread for me, he's been questioning a lot and it isn't just bluster. I honestly don't get why people are scumreading CES but he's been a bit of a black hole for me in terms of having an opinion so maybe someone who townreads him and someone who scumreads him give a case? While I myself don't scumread EddieFenix I guess there is some validity to it?
As for the other parts I'm meh on it, all it takes is one deviation and it goes out the window imo

[LicketyQuickety]

Anyway actually addressing Llamar's scumreads I take issue with, AD is a townread for me, he's been questioning a lot and it isn't just bluster. I honestly don't get why people are scumreading CES but he's been a bit of a black hole for me in terms of having an opinion so maybe someone who townreads him and someone who scumreads him give a case? While I myself don't scumread EddieFenix I guess there is some validity to it?
As for the other parts I'm meh on it, all it takes is one deviation and it goes out the window imo

This is a Town post.

UNVOTE:

[LicketyQuickety]

@Postie, what is RC's read on me?

[LicketyQuickety]

Llama's ISO looks so chaotic it makes Norma Jean look like financial analysts.

[Llamarble]

I kinda let my ego get the best of me there, sorry.
Let's just hammer Tchill and see what happens.
I still think TChill AD CES is best right now.

[Gamma Emerald]

I kinda let my ego get the best of me there, sorry.
Let's just hammer Tchill and see what happens.
I still think TChill AD CES is best right now.

That's kinda my mindset too, just wanting TChill to flip for associations

[LicketyQuickety]

Llama should really know better...