In post 2524, Ranmaru wrote:North Side Gal, I really want you to talk to me about Marquis. I want you to work with me.
that's the exact same thing i want from you – explain your scumread there? i'm really not seeing it, and like i've said multiple times i think marquis is scum's designated mislynch today. like, marquis' 2520 is actually a pretty valid point think. i should have more to say on that in a second.
@marquis
– i don't need a full readslist from you, i just want to know what you think of the people on your wagon and why ran and dunn are your scumreads in specific.
In post 2353, northsidegal wrote:i've given reasons in the past for why i think you're scum. i also get the feeling from the way you're framing things here that marquis is the scumteam's designated mislynch (this combined with dunnstral's later vote).
I acknowledge that you've mistakenly claimed I had a town read on Tchill before in order to paint my hammer in a scummy light; that was part of it.
don't play word games and pretend like saying that his wagon was no better than random doesn't at the very least imply that you're townreading him. even if we only strictly consider what you said as saying "i wouldn't be willing to lynch there" (and i would presume you wouldn't take random lynches), then the point i'm making is that, to copy a bit of your own notation, your pathway from [not willing to lynch tchill] -> [willing to lynch screenplay] was weak.
i also think that since pretty much the end of day one all you've done is made a decision on who you want lynched and voted them – i don't see any genuine gamesolving or scumhunting from you. especially given eddie flipping, someone you had at 55% scum second only to marquis, i would have expected town you to recalibrated or taken a new look at the game or at your reads. instead, all you've done is just say that the exact same person is obvious scum.
:
Marquis enters voting North following Postie, with weak reasoning in his #24. This is in response to Postie asking why he voted North, not a good response. Marquis states he is having a hard time getting into the game in his#381 but lurks for quite a bit and doesn't try to get back into it, which he admits to in #631 . He talks about who is scum on his wagon, LQ in his #455. He is sidelining while not really pushing anything, like in his #877 and then unvotes in his #879 and nothing else. He has progression for LQ but he never follows up with it. In general, he seems more interested in getting a good position in town, fails and gets wagoned, and then lurks out to survive and dodge the lynch.
In general, he was present in early game, but for what purpose? Not to find scum, because he never followed up with his read on you, nor followed up with Dan's #58. He didn't post again until page 18. He was avoiding the wagon to survive. He's trying his best to avoid a lynch, he's getting lynched. He has not tried to progress the gamestate. You seem to have town leaned him quite consistently. Why have you leaned more likely town on Marquis in your #143? Can you explain your TSQ scum read and Quick town reads, and tell me when those reads sprouted.
In post 2510, Gamma Emerald wrote:This game feels dead, let's shake it up a bit
I'm instating a little minigame: Let's call it Cop, Masonize, Vig. Here's how it works. You give one unique person for each of the slots Cop, Neighborize, and Vig. Cop is for someone you're unsure about (null to scumreads). Masonize is for those you trust (townreads you think are competent). Vig is for people you just want out of the game. Explain if you like.
I'll start.
Cop Davsto (has consistently been behind so I'm concerned he could be somewhat active lurking)
Masonize Ranmaru (town leader duh)
Vig Marquis (Their flip really should happen)
Cop tsq because it'd be nice to be certain about him
Masonise Ranmaru obvs
Vig,, Marquis too probably because I don't think a lynch would get much info but he probably needs to die. Or maybe Dunnstral for the same reasons.
I don't see Marquis as scum over LQ. Fine with letting NSG voting CES. Rosa townreads her, JJ doesn't think that's a bus vote. (for the record, my entire team, sans trans, all agree that ces is scum that must die. rosa-skirt heavy supporters of ces+dan since d1, titus thinks ces is scum because magic, jj was townreading dan all game but was convinced of my game solve in discord like an hour ago holy shit why do i never sleep.)
I was putting some breaks on promoting LQ as scum because JJ was trying to sell me fake news like "LQ/CES can't be aligned together because they haven't voted each other". I would have said that was bullshit if he worded it like that instead of something vague like "voting patterns" two days ago.
Okay so this gets pretty heavy I think I cut out some parts where I was repeating myself. Since nobody ever understands what the fuck I'm saying I think I should have left it in and repeated myself like someone in a mental institution just so everyone understands where I'm coming from.
Part 1 - Their Clues
The most peculiar rationalization I'm having to come up with is how CES/Dan/LQ all simultanously vote Gamma vs. screenplay. There's nothing that really explains this, but all of them simultaneously developed the same shit read D1, and then LQ ends up with a wagon on himself. Then, at this point screenplay is public enemy #1. Trajectory and lack of any thinking skills whatsoever explains the Gamma-Screenplay kneejerk as scum in action. There does need to be a "why" for how they wound up on Gamma to begin with- I'm going to be an asshole and paste all their reasoning, but all behavior makes sense. I present to you all something which I will call "refuge in audacity".
I find post 125 incongruous with the Dunnstral evaluation before and after. I also would have expected in post 232 that LQ's acknowledgement of Dunntral's naked vote to be taken as a cue to look back and see why LQ would have said that, instead of making something of it.
Similarly, but much more importantly, there is disparity present between posts 105 and 231 with regard to the read on Sauce. Although 231 doesn't endorse a town read of Sauce there, it is a statement that is a far cry from the feelings expressed in 105.
I don't find anything nearly as scummy in the TSQ/Gamma back and forth as the above, but I will say that I got a strong townread of TSQ out of it.
In post 395, Gamma Emerald wrote:@Dan 374: I don't think I'm gonna vote Sauce at least for right now based on my current feelings about him and having other people I'm considering before then.
What are these current feelings? Actually I'd like you to detail your feelings at 3 points in time: 105, 231, and right now.
In post 523, ActionDan wrote:You've questioned Sauce? Where? Could you explicitly link the posts (using URLs, not quoting the whole thing) where you see town value with an accompanying explanation as to why.
In post 867, Ranmaru wrote:LQ I will respond after work. Why are people voting Gamma for one post when I am seeing him post pro-town posts like the above two.
I think his main reason for voting me is why I'm scumreading him (as in he's voting me because of my reasoning, not my reasoning is based on that, but LQ voting me like that doesn't help matters either)
No, there was also your shady vote shenanigans earlier in the game revolving around Shea and I also talked about how you are voting Chill but made a case on me.
People are going to read this post and not know what the fuck I am talking about because it's prolly over most peoples heads as to why that makes your behavior Scummy. I don't really care. People are not really trying to sort me. They have made up their mind that I am Scum based on completely misinterpreting my motivation. I don't have the drive to explain why the above makes what you did Scummy. If people really want me to explain it I will, but I am loosing hope for this game.
In post 893, Gamma Emerald wrote:Anyway actually addressing Llamar's scumreads I take issue with, AD is a townread for me, he's been questioning a lot and it isn't just bluster. I honestly don't get why people are scumreading CES but he's been a bit of a black hole for me in terms of having an opinion so maybe someone who townreads him and someone who scumreads him give a case? While I myself don't scumread EddieFenix I guess there is some validity to it?
As for the other parts I'm meh on it, all it takes is one deviation and it goes out the window imo
This is a Town post.
UNVOTE:
In post 927, ActionDan wrote:Somewhere along the way, I lost the thread of this game.
UNVOTE:
I'm never going to be completely satisfied with GE's turn of opinion with regard to sauce and their interpretation of sauce's earlier posts giving town value to certain inane ramblings, but I've never really seen anything besides that that would make me think scum in particular. (Caveat, I haven't analyzed recent reads with a fine tune comb). Most of the game felt this way too back when I last had command of the game. The only real exception was Dunnstral, and my intention was if I were ever to switch from GE it would be to Dunnstral. That said, people seem to be liking his recent posts and I see why, there's a meta case against Tchill that he's pushing reasonably.
...
I'm not really sure where to put my vote. It's really tempting to just buy into Tchill meta as put forward by Dunnstral, and there's not too many other people I'd vote at this stage (this list is basically just Dunnstral himself / Marquis / CES [who's recent postings I need to read more critically]) but my confidence level on anything flipping scum right now is pretty shit.
In post 986, Davsto wrote:Did i say saturday evening? I mean sunday actually am meeting with gf on saturday sry
But I'll try my best to keep with the current state of the game too since that's quite late
rn I think I'll vote LQ because a lot of what he's done has rubbed me the wrong way
VOTE: LicketyQuickety
In post 1025, Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:I've been very busy today, sorry, so just making a quick pop-in to say the whole swap situation makes me feel better about the Tchilllynch - it's certainly a better one than lynching Lickitung (even if Lickitung does post too much).
In post 1144, ActionDan wrote:I reread LQ's iso. Admittedly skimmed some of the posts but I'm getting 0 scum vibes. i.e, exactly the same feelings I got before.
Postie's Eddie analysis is strikes me as a town post and is mostly correct, but I don't agree that EF's ISO this game matches his scum game. If I had to pick out a similarity it's that sometimes questions don't lead anywhere — but that's rather normal for everyone regardless.
Ranmaru, in the absence of clear scum reads, I'm sorting people into "town" and "those remaining", which is not out of line where others (yourself included) are approaching this game as well. Kagami is calling this game a town-hunt and I can't help but agree (she also suggests the scum team is competent but I don't agree that has to be the case).
In post 374, ActionDan wrote:Lycan, in your 225, do you not think your conclusion that CES is opportunistic scum jumping on Llmarble is example of what you described as "feely bullshit" since it seems to me you don't have a reasonable basis to conclude either that Llmarble talked himself up to rile up scum or that CES voted him in reaction to it as CES hardly gave much of a reason for his Llmarble vote in the first place.
His provided reads on not even half the players in the game goes after isolated incidence instead of looking at the whole picture regarding the reads he gave where he said most about them. It's important to note that these are the more active players on average so the fact he goes after isolated incidents instead of a broader picture of those slots shows he's either giving low effort for this competition or he is Scum.
His question to me I don't think is a legit way to sort me considering he's already given a SR on me, which makes me think he is pushing an agenda instead of actually sorting people. It's also unclear who he SRs and who he TRs because under Scum you have 6 players, which is far too many to be SRing, which makes me think he is intentionally trying to paint a lot of people as Scum so he can't get blamed for voting someone later in D1 whom he already game a SR on.
Not only that, but in 225 he just assumed Llama was doing a slayers gambit of some sort as opposed to just thinking Llama is firing from the hip (which can come from Town and Scum alike), which IIRC Llama neither confirms nor denies which makes his vote on ECS superflux.
Given he's completely wrong about my motivation for doing things, I think it's more than likely he has done this with other people as well. Misinterpreting someone's motives and just calling their motives Town or Scum, without really digging any deeper than behavioral analysis drops his game short and in my experience this comes from Scum more often than Town.
tl;dr in the disaster that was lq's day 1 posting i never pressured him for doing the exact same thing i've been saying dan and nsg did because i was too pre-occupied contemplating whether his ate was real or not, how fake dan's reads were, and wondering why the fuck llamarble was refusing to lynch ces. pretty much everything point here and we could have figured this out day 1 but just bask in the glory with me for a moment
just kidding, bonus round
[spoiler="re llamarble lynch gamma wagon]
In post 875, Llamarble wrote:In some order, we are lynching Tchill, the entire Gamma wagon (CES AD LQ) and Eddie.
Scum are going to NK TSQ, Me and / or Postie, NSG / Ran
That's 5 lynches; we get 6. If we haven't won the game with those 5, the people still alive at that point can reevaluate.
If somehow those 5 players are all town, then well played scum. Team would have to be like Marquis Postie NSG or something.
In fairness, NSG scum is more plausible than I was thinking; her ISO is essentially just some reads and reasons.
NSG mostly works on Eddie and CES teams and such though.
The lylo that would leave is:
Marquis
Dunnstral
Lycan
Davsto
Gamma
Give whoever you lynch the day before lylo (CES if he makes it that far) the right to pick the lylo lynch if they flip town. Otherwise elect somebody to control all the lylo votes.
Town MUST all 3 get it right, if game goes to lylo, so they need some preexisting mechanism to agree and stack their votes or else scum have a 90% chance of winning in 2/3 lylo.
And once again, do not assume someone who lacks a good possible buddy must be town. I was universally scumread in Whiteflag 1 and won as scum because Mith distanced from me successfully and it looked like nobody could be my partner.
I can see LQ flipping town. I can see AD flipping town, maybe. I can see Tchill flipping town if all the scum are on the gamma wagon.
CES I can't really see flipping town here, but I'm also too lazy and not reliable enough at reading him to try to lynch him D1. If alive in lylo, all votes go on him please.
Eddie is probably where my next big timechunk of reading should go.
In post 875, Llamarble wrote:In some order, we are lynching Tchill, the entire Gamma wagon (CES AD LQ) and Eddie.
Why?
Scum are going to NK TSQ, Me and / or Postie, NSG / Ran
How do you know this?
That's 5 lynches; we get 6. If we haven't won the game with those 5, the people still alive at that point can reevaluate.
It's D1 and you are assuming that you have already solved the game. This is a problem.
If somehow those 5 players are all town, then well played scum. Team would have to be like Marquis Postie NSG or something.
This is prolly the dumbest thing said in the thread so far, so congrats on that.
In fairness, NSG scum is more plausible than I was thinking; her ISO is essentially just some reads and reasons.
Yeah, reads and reasons, what are those good for anyways?
NSG mostly works on Eddie and CES teams and such though.
I have no idea what you are even talking about. List some examples.
The lylo that would leave is:
Marquis
Dunnstral
Lycan
Davsto
Gamma
How the fuck are you saying that you know what the LyLo players left are going to be on D1? Irreprehensible. You have not even come close to demonstrating that you have the level of competence to be able to figure this out.
Give whoever you lynch the day before lylo (CES if he makes it that far) the right to pick the lylo lynch if they flip town. Otherwise elect somebody to control all the lylo votes.
Town MUST all 3 get it right, if game goes to lylo, so they need some preexisting mechanism to agree and stack their votes or else scum have a 90% chance of winning in 2/3 lylo.
And once again, do not assume someone who lacks a good possible buddy must be town. I was universally scumread in Whiteflag 1 and won as scum because Mith distanced from me successfully and it looked like nobody could be my partner.
I can see LQ flipping town. I can see AD flipping town, maybe. I can see Tchill flipping town if all the scum are on the gamma wagon.
CES I can't really see flipping town here, but I'm also too lazy and not reliable enough at reading him to try to lynch him D1. If alive in lylo, all votes go on him please.
Eddie is probably where my next big timechunk of reading should go.
In post 882, Llamarble wrote:Put simply I want to set things up D1 to ensure a town win, so I am thinking a few moves ahead. I don't have a very long shelf life as town.
Your post essentially says "I find it annoying that you're thinking far ahead." Which offers even less value than my post
Lynch math - 15 -> 13 -> 11 -> 9 -> 7 -> 5 = 5 lynches; if we've hit scum with those 5 we get an additional lynch.
You haven't demonstrated that you have the ability to think that far ahead! You haven't articulated half of why you have stated the outrageous claims that you have. What value does you post offer in terms of utility for someone who doesn't just take your word for it? Zero!
[/spoiler]
team is {ces, dan, lq}. I will fight all of you horse-sized to the fucking death if you say otherwise.
this one is for eddie cane, stock image scandi (#teamscandi for dan and chesskid), that llamarble guy who is pretty cool, postie for being an alt of one of my teammates, and ranger can go fuck herself for having shit reads.
In post 2526, northsidegal wrote:don't play word games and pretend like saying that his wagon was no better than random doesn't at the very least imply that you're townreading him.
No better than random is the
literal definition
of a null read.
In post 2526, northsidegal wrote:even if we only strictly consider what you said as saying "i wouldn't be willing to lynch there" (and i would presume you wouldn't take random lynches), then the point i'm making is that, to copy a bit of your own notation, your pathway from [not willing to lynch tchill] -> [willing to lynch screenplay] was weak.
I feel like you're just trying to find new ways to making it seem like I had a big read change; it's just not true. I detailed exactly the nature of my read change in #1596; do you think I should not have been willing to hammer Screenplay at a time when no better lynch was forthcoming?
In post 2526, northsidegal wrote:i also think that since pretty much the end of day one all you've done is made a decision on who you want lynched and voted them – i don't see any genuine gamesolving or scumhunting from you.
Getting the right people lynched is how you win, so that does tend to be my focus, yes. I tried to engage with Eddie, I've been trying to understand where you're coming from (I'd still like a response to the busywork question), but at the end of the day that sort of stuff is only interesting as far it changes who I want to read. I'm here to win the game, not for brownie points.
In post 2526, northsidegal wrote:especially given eddie flipping, someone you had at 55% scum second only to marquis, i would have expected town you to recalibrated or taken a new look at the game or at your reads. instead, all you've done is just say that the exact same person is obvious scum.
I know this is a concept floating for some reason but this is actually the completely opposite of how it works. Eddie (and Postie) flipping town simply makes it more likely that Marquis is scum - there's only 3 scum and quite a few people look townie to various degrees so it's only become more likely that Marquis is scum. If you're looking for someone and there's 2 man-sized bushes, it's 50-50 they're in the first one but if the first bush is empty, then it's very likely Marquis is hiding in the other one.
I'm also currently in a reread but that's admittedly going fairly slowly - figuring out scum #2 doesn't seem quite as important as getting scum #1 lynched.
Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
~"Multiple exclamation marks are a sure sign of a diseased mind."~
After realizing Gamma has close to 300 posts and many contain quote pyramids and I've just decided not to look anymore. The way I might tackle that later is looking at votes and the reasons why they occur. When I was skimming I counted 3 unvotes and 10 vote swaps with a total of voting 7 unique people throughout the game. That's a lot and should be a good starting point to look at... for later.
In meantime it's so much easier to look at CES and Lycanfire and my immediate conclusions aren't different from the last time I looked. I still think they're both town, with maybe a couple of reservations.
The immediate thing to check with CES is his projection on his eventual vote for Eddie. It stands up to consistency, isn't a meta based read, and it's understandable. The only question remains is if it's convincing, and I don't know. It's not the deepest of reasons to say something along the lines of "eddie's posts don't add anything to the gamestate" ~ roughly translated, but it's a reason and in the absence of anything if I had similar thoughts with regard to anyone else I'd probably be pushing it too. Aside from this vote, I've either roughly agreed or could follow CES's commentary throughout the game aside from early Day 1. I'd say the only thing that looks whack to me are those percentages and I would have never even thought CES does anything like that. I thought it was a joke but I guess not. In any case I can't point to any behavior or any particular point CES has made and say "that looks like scum posting".
Lycanfire too has a vote on the Eddie wagon and it's the first thing I looked at. It's pretty awful, since Eddie went from lynchbait D1 to an acceptable vote D2 which is a complete abdication of the first read (by voting you're essentially being baited into the lynch, right?) and I don't see enough self-awareness of this in the post to be completely ok with it (although there is a bit of supplemental material in 1669 but here too, the conclusion is Eddie isn't scum). What I do see is an internal monologue justifying voting with CES, which isn't convincing either. That said, there's a lot of pretty towny looking things in plenty of other posts. To give examples I like the top paragraph of 2222 showcasing the town read on Gamma. Also a small but decent association that Marquis/LQ aren't scum together in 2365, along with in general (there and elsewhere) an appropriate amount of resistance to Ranmaru's read change swings. I also like post 1902 among the many many many posts disparaging/connecting me + CES for the way Gamma is treated here.
LQ - a couple of recent interactions with him (particularly that with Ran) showed him making a bit more internal sense and having a natural progression forming which makes somewhat sense, even if I think his actual logic can be silly at times.
GE - after looking closer at his recent posts due to having a mild scumread on him but not wanting to ISO, I noticed a lot more townie patterns than I initially thought, particularly that thought in my 2476 about his 2166.
NSG - This probably wasn't accurate of me to include here, I'd still include her about the same as where I had her in the readslists, I'm just a little more confident of that position now. This was more just about my movement from my very initial mild scumread on her from D1 sort of time.
CES becomes a fair amount more scummy
It's hard to pin down exactly why but since I started paying a bit more attention to him and reading closer he's not really just blending in with everything and I'm noticing something just, idk, off in his posts. His Marquis obsession is a bit silly and he seems to actively discredit any theory that doesn't include Marquis-scum. He could just be confbiasing but it seems a bit beyond even that.
TSQ, Lycan, Dunn a bit more scummy
TSQ - less that he's become "scummy", more that he's gone from my strongest townread to a bit less certain because of recent attitudes that unnerve me a little.
Lycan - I feel his posts are big but a lot of the stuff in them doesn't come across as saying anything really to me.
Dunn - his extremelurking is starting to be a real pain (as is Marquis') but unlike Marquis in my memory (may be wrong when I ISO Marquis which I'm still yet to do) Dunn has made a couple of posts that really strike me oddly, especially that recent one about "rushing into a Marquis lynch" that is so blatantly wrong despite being right after a votecount
In post 2510, Gamma Emerald wrote:This game feels dead, let's shake it up a bit
I'm instating a little minigame: Let's call it Cop, Masonize, Vig. Here's how it works. You give one unique person for each of the slots Cop, Neighborize, and Vig. Cop is for someone you're unsure about (null to scumreads). Masonize is for those you trust (townreads you think are competent). Vig is for people you just want out of the game. Explain if you like.
I'll start.
Cop Davsto (has consistently been behind so I'm concerned he could be somewhat active lurking)
Masonize Ranmaru (town leader duh)
Vig Marquis (Their flip really should happen)
This post
I'm kinda cheesed off no one is even responding to the idea or my gamestate analysis even
<Embrace The Void>
“A flipped coin doesn't always land heads or tails. Sometimes it may never land at all...”
I'm going to give a more creative answer for Gamma's inquiry about what roles we would use on people.
I would Cop Marquis. Reason for this is that it's the third day in a row we only really legit have one slot in danger of lynch. North could be right about Marquis being the designated mislynch for today.
I would Mason Davsto. Reason for this is that I am getting more and more confident in my TR I have on him with every one of his posts. I feel if I was a mason with him, because we have such differing perspectives, that this would lead to the best potential to solve the game for me. He would keep me grounded in a way and keep me from thinking too unrealistically.
I would Vig Shea. Reason for this is it would tell a shit ton about a ton of players in the game. It would also set my mind at ease in that I could feel more comfortable knowing how shea flips. If he ends up being Town, I can trust his reads more, if he is Scum I could see who was resistant to SRing him.
I was anything worse than you! Anything worse than you was I!
You was doided teh aposit_tisopa het dedoid saw em.
In post 2543, Ranmaru wrote:Quick what do you think of Marquis's vote on me and his reads right now?
I can see both Town and Scum motive for Marquis vote on you and reads. Like I talked about with CES in that I liked how he was saying things that were a bit contrary to the norm, I see the same thing for Marquis here. I have to ask myself what Scum motive Marquis has for voting you. I am drawing a blank other than that it's a fake out. This is especially true if Marquis has just resigned to be the lynch for the day like they said they were thinking. Like I said, on surface value, It's Town motivated. That said, given where Marquis power lies in this game regarding that they really don't have many people tied to him (other than shea IMHO), they could very well be looking at it from the angle of "Well, I getting lynched here, what can I do to make the biggest impact for my team?" This applies if Marquis is Town or Scum. If Marquis is Town, then they can at least feel good about getting their reads out there before they eat rope. If they are Scum, then they can view it as a freebie if by some miracle they don't get lynched this phase, which would make Marquis try and confuse Town on who is Scum with their reads and try and psych out Town from correctly guessing who is Scum based on Marquis reads.
Long story short, the TL;DR is that I think it's more Town motivated for Marquis giving the reads they have, but I can very easily see Marquis as Scum trying to play a game with Town knowing he is getting lynched this phase.
I was anything worse than you! Anything worse than you was I!
You was doided teh aposit_tisopa het dedoid saw em.
from what i can tell most people's marquis scumreads are just from him not doing anything, but i don't think that reality and the idea of him being scum go together realistically. like, the reads that he's given today are completely wild and seem utterly inconsistent with any scum agenda: quick and davsto scumread in 2358 to dunn/ran scumreads in 2517 and a ran vote just don't make sense to me if marquis is scum. it's utterly inconsistent with any realistic scum agenda i could think of and heavily indicates to me town that can't get into the game rather than scum. combine that with 1487 and you see why i'm confident that marquis is the lynchbait.
ran, i really think you need to get off of this wagon. vote cogito ergo sum with me?
