Team Mafia 2018: White Flag — Day Six

[LicketyQuickety]

Dunn has a naked vote, nothing to analyze there.
Llamarble is essentially a naked vote, nothing to analyze there.
Postie looks more or less like a naked vote as well.
Wgeurts is voting marquise because there is nothing better to vote atm. This looks kinda opportunistic.
GE vote is prolly the Scummiest of all of them, tbh. Weird that they say Llama is wrong about Postie but right about Marquise. How does GE know Llama is Town if they have such a disparity of reads?

Creature thinks Eddie, Dan and North are Town.

VOTE: LicketyQuickety

You're capable of more than this as town and my team mates don't think you've been towny either.

Honesly yeah I agree on this post being weird. I was able to make something of Dunnstral's vote, and I never said I knew Llamar was town.

What did you see in Dunn's vote on Marquis that you thought didn't need any explanation?

[Gamma Emerald]

Ran, you made the point that people who hate scum would take it for the wifom value. I want you to look at the names of every single player who has flipped scum in this tournament. Not making any further comment there. Just look at them.

This is gambler's fallacy. I'll check your team but it's not fair to attribute the thinking of other teams to yours.
Predicting specific response by Marquis in 3...2...

No, it's NOT Fucking Gambler's Fallacy. WTF?

Okay but my point was you can't make the same analysis for all teams. Gambler's Fallacy just sounded like the right term.

VOTE: Northsidegal
There has been an influx of evidence dug up recently that has made me suspect her. I think a vote should be in order at this point.

Do share what this influx of evidence is...

The lack of questions answered, the deduction that NSG's activity patterns might be from scum, etc. etc.

I think I heard a

might

in there... How does this make you so sure that North is Scum?

Did I

say

I was sure NSG was scum? No.

Gamma is getting more and more interesting. I think that is where I am going next.

You wanna tell me what the hell this is supposed to mean?

[Ranmaru]

Gamma I'm telling you, Quick is scum trying to deflect. Simple as.

[Gamma Emerald]

Dunn has a naked vote, nothing to analyze there.
Llamarble is essentially a naked vote, nothing to analyze there.
Postie looks more or less like a naked vote as well.
Wgeurts is voting marquise because there is nothing better to vote atm. This looks kinda opportunistic.
GE vote is prolly the Scummiest of all of them, tbh. Weird that they say Llama is wrong about Postie but right about Marquise. How does GE know Llama is Town if they have such a disparity of reads?

Creature thinks Eddie, Dan and North are Town.

VOTE: LicketyQuickety

You're capable of more than this as town and my team mates don't think you've been towny either.

Honesly yeah I agree on this post being weird. I was able to make something of Dunnstral's vote, and I never said I knew Llamar was town.

What did you see in Dunn's vote on Marquis that you thought didn't need any explanation?

Aren't you forgetting something? Something that has been brought up multiple times?

[Gamma Emerald]

Actually no LQ keep going, I want to see your finale here

[Ranmaru]

NSG

: Why did you delete it? Also, explain your TSQ and Quick reads. You still need to answer to that as well.

[northsidegal]

Why did you delete it? Also, explain your TSQ and Quick reads. You still need to answer to that as well.

i just didn't think it was that good. TSQ is scum by team comp, PoE and by voting history. Quick is just town. I can tell you that he's not playing like what i know of his scumgame to be. he's also made a lot of posts that i think are just obvtown but i really don't care to go back and find them for you.

[northsidegal]

scum please kill me

[northsidegal]

Okay but my point was you can't make the same analysis for all teams. Gambler's Fallacy just sounded like the right term.

You're making the same generalization like you did about your point with bussing. Are you saying that there's something different to that analysis when it comes to me? If so, please elaborate. If not, this doesn't mean anything.

[Ranmaru]

Why do you find no point in giving a reads list? I also want to see you respond to this: #2018

[northsidegal]

it's a lot of typing for something that isn't very pressing. I literally already told you that i intended to post one before the day ended – I don't see the point in you constantly nagging me for one. Do you want my read on someone? Just ask.

I already responded to that. I was largely ignoring eddie because I figured that the wagon on him was inevitable, and nothing pinged me enough to think it was worth derailing it entirely by myself.

[Ranmaru]

NSG: You deleted your post towards CES. Why did you think the post was bad, can you go into the gist of it? Are you still confident in your read on CES now?

[LicketyQuickety]

P 14 is all Town.

[northsidegal]

I don't know, writing just wasn't flowing. Yes, I'm still confident in CES.

Ran

: Can you pretty please stop nagging me and also stop ignoring your teammates and common sense with your scumread on me?

[LicketyQuickety]

I also thought 395 was weak sauce and I hate that Shea is TRing Gamma for that.

[Ranmaru]

don't play word games and pretend like saying that his wagon was no better than random doesn't at the very least imply that you're townreading him.

No better than random is the

literal definition

of a null read.

even if we only strictly consider what you said as saying "i wouldn't be willing to lynch there" (and i would presume you wouldn't take random lynches), then the point i'm making is that, to copy a bit of your own notation, your pathway from [not willing to lynch tchill] -> [willing to lynch screenplay] was weak.

I feel like you're just trying to find new ways to making it seem like I had a big read change; it's just not true. I detailed exactly the nature of my read change in #1596; do you think I should not have been willing to hammer Screenplay at a time when no better lynch was forthcoming?

i also think that since pretty much the end of day one all you've done is made a decision on who you want lynched and voted them – i don't see any genuine gamesolving or scumhunting from you.

Getting the right people lynched is how you win, so that does tend to be my focus, yes. I tried to engage with Eddie, I've been trying to understand where you're coming from (I'd still like a response to the busywork question), but at the end of the day that sort of stuff is only interesting as far it changes who I want to read. I'm here to win the game, not for brownie points.

especially given eddie flipping, someone you had at 55% scum second only to marquis, i would have expected town you to recalibrated or taken a new look at the game or at your reads. instead, all you've done is just say that the exact same person is obvious scum.

I know this is a concept floating for some reason but this is actually the completely opposite of how it works. Eddie (and Postie) flipping town simply makes it more likely that Marquis is scum - there's only 3 scum and quite a few people look townie to various degrees so it's only become more likely that Marquis is scum. If you're looking for someone and there's 2 man-sized bushes, it's 50-50 they're in the first one but if the first bush is empty, then it's very likely Marquis is hiding in the other one.

I'm also currently in a reread but that's admittedly going fairly slowly - figuring out scum #2 doesn't seem quite as important as getting scum #1 lynched.

[Ranmaru]

Here, is where as town, you'd admit you were wrong, and re-evaluate. Yet you stick to your guns and can't seem to write anything because you know he is right. He defended himself well. You still being confident on CES doesn't make sense alongside that.

[LicketyQuickety]

don't play word games and pretend like saying that his wagon was no better than random doesn't at the very least imply that you're townreading him.

No better than random is the

literal definition

of a null read.

even if we only strictly consider what you said as saying "i wouldn't be willing to lynch there" (and i would presume you wouldn't take random lynches), then the point i'm making is that, to copy a bit of your own notation, your pathway from [not willing to lynch tchill] -> [willing to lynch screenplay] was weak.

I feel like you're just trying to find new ways to making it seem like I had a big read change; it's just not true. I detailed exactly the nature of my read change in #1596; do you think I should not have been willing to hammer Screenplay at a time when no better lynch was forthcoming?

i also think that since pretty much the end of day one all you've done is made a decision on who you want lynched and voted them – i don't see any genuine gamesolving or scumhunting from you.

Getting the right people lynched is how you win, so that does tend to be my focus, yes. I tried to engage with Eddie, I've been trying to understand where you're coming from (I'd still like a response to the busywork question), but at the end of the day that sort of stuff is only interesting as far it changes who I want to read. I'm here to win the game, not for brownie points.

especially given eddie flipping, someone you had at 55% scum second only to marquis, i would have expected town you to recalibrated or taken a new look at the game or at your reads. instead, all you've done is just say that the exact same person is obvious scum.

I know this is a concept floating for some reason but this is actually the completely opposite of how it works. Eddie (and Postie) flipping town simply makes it more likely that Marquis is scum - there's only 3 scum and quite a few people look townie to various degrees so it's only become more likely that Marquis is scum. If you're looking for someone and there's 2 man-sized bushes, it's 50-50 they're in the first one but if the first bush is empty, then it's very likely Marquis is hiding in the other one.

I'm also currently in a reread but that's admittedly going fairly slowly - figuring out scum #2 doesn't seem quite as important as getting scum #1 lynched.

No conclusion so it means nothing.

[Gamma Emerald]

Okay but my point was you can't make the same analysis for all teams. Gambler's Fallacy just sounded like the right term.

You're making the same generalization like you did about your point with bussing. Are you saying that there's something different to that analysis when it comes to me? If so, please elaborate. If not, this doesn't mean anything.

What bussing generalization?
Also the point is that each team makes their own decisions. I need to see each one's and analyze those.

[LicketyQuickety]

i've given reasons in the past for why i think you're scum. i also get the feeling from the way you're framing things here that marquis is the scumteam's designated mislynch (this combined with dunnstral's later vote).

I acknowledge that you've mistakenly claimed I had a town read on Tchill before in order to paint my hammer in a scummy light; that was part of it.

don't play word games and pretend like saying that his wagon was no better than random doesn't at the very least imply that you're townreading him. even if we only strictly consider what you said as saying "i wouldn't be willing to lynch there" (and i would presume you wouldn't take random lynches), then the point i'm making is that, to copy a bit of your own notation, your pathway from [not willing to lynch tchill] -> [willing to lynch screenplay] was weak.

i also think that since pretty much the end of day one all you've done is made a decision on who you want lynched and voted them – i don't see any genuine gamesolving or scumhunting from you. especially given eddie flipping, someone you had at 55% scum second only to marquis, i would have expected town you to recalibrated or taken a new look at the game or at your reads. instead, all you've done is just say that the exact same person is obvious scum.

VOTE: Cogito Ergo Sum

To be fair it seemed likely that Screenplay was salvaging a scumslot upon switching in. Otherwise, T-chill would have picked up the slack himself instead of lurking out. That's on T-chill. (Eddie too) It's bad play to lurk out as town.

You say you haven't seen any gamesolving or scumhunting from CES. Technically, he is scumhunting, and he is pushing for Marquis. Gamesolving, he isn't doing as much as I am, but that is his playstyle. This may be your first time playing with him, but he typically plays in a concise manner. I think Llamarble said that usually if he's town, he's pretty accurate. I think I have a good understanding of the game, and I feel Marquis does too. That's why Marquis knows how to pop in and seem town. I don't understand why you have had a null-town read on him all game though. I think you are also being unfair to CES. He asks you to look at Marquis's meta and you say you didn't look into it. #584 So, have you looked into that yet? Right now the person who needs to re-evaluate is you.

@Ran, this post is so solid.. What happened to this?

[LicketyQuickety]

Here, is where as town, you'd admit you were wrong, and re-evaluate. Yet you stick to your guns and can't seem to write anything because you know he is right. He defended himself well. You still being confident on CES doesn't make sense alongside that.

This is actually a good solid point.

You make a lot of noise, but sometime you really make sense.

IDK why you think I am Scum for "confusing" Town when you are essentially doing the exact same thing with how often you are changing your reads/votes.

[Ranmaru]

I want everyone in town (especially those town reading Quick) to look at #2725, and then explain how Quick is progressing the town win condition over the scum win condition.

[Ranmaru]

Quick: How does that affect your read on NSG? Would you vote her now?

[LicketyQuickety]

Okay but my point was you can't make the same analysis for all teams. Gambler's Fallacy just sounded like the right term.

You're making the same generalization like you did about your point with bussing. Are you saying that there's something different to that analysis when it comes to me? If so, please elaborate. If not, this doesn't mean anything.

What bussing generalization?
Also the point is that each team makes their own decisions. I need to see each one's and analyze those.

You need to pick up the slack!!! <- Yes, this is multiple exclamation points, deal.

I think Gamma is dumb or Scum.

[Ranmaru]

Gamma is not dumb, he's making good points. (That I in fact would not have thought of) Gamma's town.