Large Normal 199: L'Hôtel Pleuvoir (Fin)

[Aj The Epic]

Pushing on this as a slip was a shitty move from you aj, i knew it was shit even when I was drunk, I just wanted to let you two dig your own graves over it. 50 house points from Slytherin.

Saying he was mentioning CK STILL doesn't make any sense in that context. And it's not like I have any questions about who's scum. He wiffed my entire statement and related what I said to him interacting with Tywin.

Re-read Pine's reactions to you not hammering me right away and just see how fake his reaction is.

[Elbirn]

Yeah, CloudKicker was actually voting for me for about a third of D1. But you can call that "mentioned like once"

^ how does this not make sense? CK did in fact vote him for a third of day 1. Tywin didn't.

[Pine]

Yeah, Tywin was actually voting for me for about a third of D1. But you can call that "mentioned like once"

So this isn't a slip considering that tywin doesn't even breath pine's name day 1

Pushing on this as a slip was a shitty move from you aj, i knew it was shit even when I was drunk, I just wanted to let you two dig your own graves over it. 50 house points from Slytherin.

Basically the only reason aj is alive is this

1. Was the Lapsa wagon reaaallly entirely town except for traitor-cloud? No groupscum decided to push that?

2. Why does aj no kill the night before sonia's death-day? I can at least bullshit a notice from pine for that but why aj?

3. If pine is scum and I hammer aj I'm gonna have that smug asshole tywin yelling at me for the rest of time

1. These things happen. I've actually noted that there is a trend lately, with scum actively trying to defeat VCA by either avoiding wagons or piling onto them unanimously. A good example happened recently in Hunger Games II, where we saw Town moving to mislynch someone we weren't pushing, and decided to step back, push vanity wagons, and let them do the work. Later in the game, they used VCA to accuse people on the mislynch wagon, and it was hard for them to believe that it was fully Town. As for me being on Lapsa, Lapsa was (I think) my only vote D1, and I was the first vote on him, during RVS. I didn't have a chance to coordinate with anyone.
2. Again, the question is valid for anyone. There's no good reason for either of us to do it. It's either a tactical error, a weird gambit that I'm not groking, or a rolecop identifying my role and hoping I would do exactly what I did.
3. Tywin is going to yell at all of us regardless of what happens. He's the kind of smug douche who can't conceive of the notion that someone else might interpret things differently.

Yeah, CloudKicker was actually voting for me for about a third of D1. But you can call that "mentioned like once"

^ how does this not make sense? CK did in fact vote him for a third of day 1. Tywin didn't.

I straightforwardly misread the quote, and thought that AJ was implying that Cloudkicker was ignoring me on D1, when in fact he was voting me for a good chunk of it.

[Pine]

I blame the Super Bowl. Fantastic halftime show, riveting second half, first overtime of any Super Bowl, Brady's record-setting fifth win. I'm going to remember this one for a long time.

[Aj The Epic]

Yeah, CloudKicker was actually voting for me for about a third of D1. But you can call that "mentioned like once"

^ how does this not make sense? CK did in fact vote him for a third of day 1. Tywin didn't.

I was still caught up on how he got CK from my post.

[Aj The Epic]

(aka looked at the fact scum never interacted with Tywin but did mention pine like once)

Like... I'm not sure what Pine's trying to say with CK here.

[Pine]

Original:

No, not really. Just pointing out I did the exact same thing yesterday to lynch Tywin over Pine (aka looked at the fact scum never interacted with Tywin but did mention pine like once) and it turned out incorrect.

Yeah, Tywin was actually voting for me for about a third of D1. But you can call that "mentioned like once"

What I read, then meant when responding:

No, not really. Just pointing out I did the exact same thing yesterday to lynch Tywin over Pine (aka looked at the fact scum never interacted with

Cloudkicker

but did mention pine like once) and it turned out incorrect.

Yeah,

Cloudkicker

was actually voting for me for about a third of D1. But you can call that "mentioned like once"

Have you never glanced at something while distracted and read something incorrectly?

Is this seriously what you're hinging this game on?

[Aj The Epic]

Yeah I glanced at the score of the super bowl and read it as the Falcons were going to win.

And lol@ "is this what you're hinging the game on". You and I have perfect information of the alignments remaining in this game.

[Aj The Epic]

You keep acting like we don't know this and only Elbrin is guessing.

[Pine]

I'm not acting like I don't know what's up - you're scum, and I'm voting for you. I just think that pushing an obviously bullshit line of attack is ridiculous. Are you going for a 'too scummy to be scum' defense?

[Aj The Epic]

No, your writing was fucking confusing. What more is there to my side than "how am I actually supposed to get your edits by reading it"?

[Elbirn]

This convo is pedantic and bewildering, I award you both zero points.

Gonna go read nero when I can

[Elbirn]

Spoiler: Nero quotes without comment for me to ponder when I have time

Yeah Transcend nice try grudge matching.

WHAT THE FUCK IS THIS SHIT

gonna agree with this.

I think the Lapsa wagon was shit and wouldn't be surprised to see scum on it.

Now state your case. Why do you think Titus is scum?

I think there was scum voting for Lapsa. She spent awhile ignoring me and then why I brought this up she then tried to wave my vote off as RVS or random. Why should I think this is town behavior?

Well, feels like my vote is in the right place. I do agree with the town read on Alisae though and I'm sure a quick meta dive can confirm how she's been described for those who do TR her. I also like when she posts more seriously, it's attractive. Her questions and reads feel like they're coming from town.

Yeah, nah. You don't get to keep your rvs vote on me, not explain why, and then instead of talking about why you think I'm scum go off on a tangent about alisae instead. Tell the good people of this thread why I'm scum

Square up, you bout to catch these blessed hands

Gladiate: Lil Uzi Vert

Agree with Elibirn. Answer his questions Lil Uzi. It's only fair.

Ewwww politician posting.

I vaguely remember us having the conversation that what I refer to as the mediation tell you refer to as that. Though sure, what Cabd is doing is more of the pure mediation tell.

My reads are piecemeal in my iso but you know that my reads often change and that towns reads ebb and flow. I think you are my only real solid static read. You are clearly scum from my POV. I still think the Lapsa wagon was shit so I think there was scum on it. So I guess I'll keep the light town read there. Trans is null. Pine needs to start doing shit or replace out. I can't read NOS, she should be investigated. Moz is town as is cloud. Both Sonia and Uzi seem pretty useless and null. And then it gets kinda wonky. I think it was fair to wagon Gamma when he was lurking/not caught up. I hated his vote on Lapsa but I hated Titus' vote on him. Cabd was pretty null to me but I hate his mediation between you and Tywin. If he's scum that means I'm wrong on you. Unless this is just really good scum theater then I think Tywin town. Gut says AJ is town.
I am generally confused about SSBM's read switch on you but we are currently discussing it. But their stance was pretty funky and would make sense with you as scum. Elbrin is nullscum. True, I hate his stance that you are really town and I hate his belittling of my case on you but I also disliked

Try not to hammer me/Uzi before I wake up? I'd like to get final words/thoughts in.

Seemed kinda consciousness. Even if this part was playing up the silly gladiate gambit he should have known better than to think that he'd be quick lynched so FMPOV is sounds like scum trying to sound like paranoid town.

I waffle on Ali. I can see her actions as both town and scum since both alignments are capable of defending.


TL;DR
Tywin
Moz
Lapsa
Gamma
AJ
Pine
Sonia
Trans
Uzi
NOS
SSBM
Elbrin
Cabd
Alisae
Titus

I am caught up.

My top scumread is SSBM. And then Gamma and or Sonia. Pine, gerry, Aj and Tywin are my town reads. and then Titus, you, Elbrin are my null/POE town reads depending on flips.

Whats your read list look like?

This was an excellent point by the way.

Alisae
Aj
Tywin
Nero

Being the voting bloc. Alisae just does this apparently and is confirmed non-scum. But I find it unlikely for gamma to be scum if any of the latter 3 are. If the 3 are town than the wagon speed/flipping doesn't really mean much but yeah.

Analyzing why these 3 have been so flippant and what their reasons for joining the 2 wagons are could be a good start

Why is it scummy that I voted my scum read? TBF I've been scum reading both SSBM and Gamma for awhile now and I believe that I was the one that first started pushing the Gamma/SSBM team. SSBM wagon falls apart? Ali tells me there's a Gamma wagon. Why should I care wich scum read gets lynched?

+

I

DID

lay out a case on SSBM despite his claims that I didn't.

Lapsa 5 (Pine, Gamma Emerald, Titus, Alisae, Elbirn)

Tywin Lannister 5 (Pine, ssbm_Kyouko, Titus, Gamma Emerald, Elbirn)

Like both these wagons were shit and the common names are Pine, Titus, Elbirn so there is scum within those 3. Also funny coincidence that all 3 hold the same spot on both wagons (Pine 1, Titus 3, Elbirn 5)

on top of my neck but also scum is Sonia and one of Elbrin/Tywin. Y tu?

That means the only town left are Titus, Gerry, Nero, AJ, Pine and Elbrin..

FIFY!

I don't have any direct opinion of Nero since he did sheep the wagon shift yesterday rather easily. Elbrin is probs town until further notice.

TBF I was pushing a Sonia/Tywin grouping and it looks like Sonia isn't happening so...I just want to lynch scum...I don't care wich username it is.

[Elbirn]

Spoiler: Aj quotes for some reason

Defined as?

You, Elbrin, Myself, titus. We can basically assume Tran's replacement for town, so given a reasonable player is put there, they'll be capable of fulfilling this too. I'm working on Nero, who I believe is capable, but I don't have a townread on yet.

Basically a group of players capable of driving this game in a positive direction going forward. If town only has one head, they'll be picked off and the town has to reorganize each day. That's why it's really important to have multiple heads capable of making good decisions. And the democratic process of finding if one is lying is basically that they're also the center of attention and the ones who have to be right constantly to avoid scrutiny.

I personally think Alisae is a fine wagon to be on right now.

If we're speaking of wagons, I'd like the pool for today to be:
Alisae, kyouko and Sonia. I'd consider Gamma, but that's lower on my list of priorities.

Uzi, Pine, mozamis, Nos need to get active. mozamis has been trying, so props for that, but I need more to get a good read.

Right now, we should run the assumption on Tywin as town and even if you don't agree with that, his wagon today gives us nothing because he's alienated himself and invited himself as an easy target. Transcend's slot should be recognized as town until further notice. I wouldn't want to lynch cabd/titus/elbrin without a much stronger case than has existed already and honestly think at least two are going to be town. As for Nero, this is something I know he does whenever he sees titus. FWIW, he needs to stop focusing on Titus and do something else.

Can we not go for 'proposed scum teams' day 1? Every suggested team thus far looks like garbage.

Kyouko is more concerned about drafting his fantasy scum team than he is about actually hunting. Throws out the traitor card with no real reason. Suspecting a traitor isn't even NAI, because scum can be trying to signal each other that way if one exists. But needless to say, it's also fucking pointless to suspect that in D1. His potential scum team is at this point like 7 long but he's gone through variations that suggest he suspects and has more than half the playerlist as acceptable lynches.

Lapsa Tywin and AJ scum, Alisae Traitor or on other scumteam in multiball, leaning Traitor.

That's from 1536.

If he is a traitor though would it not be interesting if he had used his 561 as another crumb? Look at the bolded. If it's 4 scum, 3+ a traitor, the scumteam might notice this reads list and see themselves as 2 easy mislynches alongside the traitor, plus the last of the scum team being hidden inside the 3 below where there is "perhaps bus on 1". This would be traitor!Lapsa + AJ +Tywin + 1 of [Alisae, Uzi, Gamma] as the scumteam.

1585, referring 'his' as lapsa.

Kyouko, thoughts on Sonia and Uzi?

They aren't bothering me aside from not voting. I haven't looked very closely at Sonia yet though so I think I'll do that now. LUV is the lurkier of the two I feel. Also forgot to post that Cloud is also currently not voting in that unofficial VC.

Suuuuure. Just recall uzi and sonia don't post much between this and him claiming they're part of a scum team.

Also throws out multiball as a possible theory.

More importantly, Kyouko explains away some bad votes with "I was sheeping", specifically why he was on my wagon.

Yeah this is a bullshit lynch. It's basically PL, giving anyone an excuse to hop on, especially if it's a ML, and give no justification for it.

I have other reads, but they're town reads and uninteresting at that point.

Disagree; I'd love your town reads and justification thereof to help me sort you.

Right now,

Titus/Cabd/Alisae/Pine town
Nero/Elbirn probtown
Nos null
Tywin/Sonia/Gamma lean scum
Moz/SSBM scum

Yeah, come on lets lynch AJ. The guys a good player and yet time and time again he gives no original input. He's not trying to "solve the game" , or push it on. No justufactions for his reads.
Just an identikit "blend in" list of reads.
He's scum.

@Aj so Nero's "prob town". Why?

Yeah these two posts make perfect sense in conjunction.

Nero is town because this is what he always does with Titus around. The fact that he's not overplaying his paranoia for Titus and dropped it in search of better things to do is enough.

Well, maybe we should drop the SSBM lynch?

I think that's the idea here, yes.

--------------
Nero Cain
Nosferatu
Gamma Emerald
Aj The Epic
mozamis


If you're not on this list, you're either town or alisae the nightkill immune miller vig. If you are on this list you just might be scum.

Behold my lynch pool, yee mighty, and despair!

I love how noncommittal you are "If you're on this list you may be scum". Let me list the remaining alive players and say the same.

I'd like to hear your reasoning for nero though. Is this just a null and down list or do you have legitimate suspicions for him to be scum?

I don't particularly blame Nero for having an unbold vote count to a lynch, as I wouldn't expect it to count either.

Again, not my question. What do you think of Nero?

I mean, it was your question at the time.

I've been null-town on Nero for a while, simply because he's played exactly as I'd expect with you in the game.

P-edit: And there are posts where Mozamis has Syrana in his scum pile of three, multiple times.

As far as I'm concerned, the outting today is fine. Titus, Alisae, Mason buddy and Pine (probably) all need to die from their point of view so it's really unlikely that they can actually devote a whole day to avoid a killer role that's eliminated at least half their team already or Titus who's essentially full cleared by a now-dead semi-cop.

Nero, it's always impressive that you can manage to maintain paranoia of titus even when she's basically confirmed town.

My theory of Elbrin Tywin AJ Nero feels good, but it's probably wrong

You gonna keep throwing unsubstantiated shade from the sidelines while continuing to do fuckall since you've been confirmed?

Show us the vca in your next post or claim scum, nerd

It's day 3. I need 3 days of data. Flips help.

Go ahead. Fight me.

Bruh. Bruh you *have* 3 days of data.

And you started pushing my buttons from the sidelines because "wow vca says elbirn scum"

And then you don't deliver.

Hell, even putting that aside, you have 6 corpses, two of which are scum, and you don't have enough info to analyze?

Hey guys guess what titus fucks up at when she's scum? She doesn't reveal her mysterious vca no matter how much you beg.

So I think you and I both realize the chances of a false-positive and true-negative existing at the same to to counter a 1-shot gunsmith is really unlikely. It completely invalidates a role that is... more or less flawed, even compared to a 1shot cop.

Which is why I'm stating that this post feels like scum employing the WIFOM of "Yeah but scum would never be fucking crazy enough to argue with confirmed town Titus". I know you're smart enough to see the writing on the wall and unfortunately I think Tywin's theatrics have given people the idea that such cases as the one quoted is acceptable and not retaliated against. Unfortunately, the fact that you are indeed smart enough to know Titus is almost certainly town means that this is complete and utter bullshit.

It's one of those cases were I'd expect you to put up or shut up here. This is a scum as hell post to try and discredit a basic confirmed town clear by a dead gunsmith by pretending to... call her out over not doing VCA? You're attempting to shake this read and do it in a way that people will say "oh but no scum would be that stupid". If you're going to toss shade, you might as well come out and build a case.

You realize that your scum reads thus far have included Lapsa, LUV, me, Tywin, Nero and Gamma, right? Of them, your flips have all been town. Gamma Is the only one out of that I honestly think goes scum.

So that's what I don't like about you saying SSBM has been in sync with you. Scum would be MORE THAN HAPPY to be in sync with you at this point in time.

How in the fuck is Nero newscum lol

The issue with your wall is it's actually bad. Post 2015 where "Elbrin hasn't mentioned pine..." is because PINE WAS INACTIVE for the majority of d1. 2323 right away should make you question your entire premise of them being scum together but instead you just push it harder.

Post 2489 is complete bullshit because everyone in this game thought Elbrin put Mozamis at L-1, not lynch. That was Nero's unbolded vote that caused the issue, not Elbrin's hammer.

You see what's going on here? You're skewing the context of literally everything to whatever fits you best.

I mean I'd be fine lynching Nero with the explicit understanding that Tywin dies in any forthcoming Lylo situation but I'm pretty lukewarm on any read right now.

Rolecop still makes 0 sense. If Pine isn't lying, they see 3x and don't NK.

(And also)

None here.

Dear Santa, I want to vig the following people
Tywin
Kyouko
Cabd

...Cabd is conftown and Kyouko is towntown you silly goose.

Replace cabd with aj.

Replace Kyouko with someone else pretty please.

Nos, for example,

[Elbirn]

Spoiler: Pine quotes

VOTE: Nero Cain

I haven't played with you in ages! How's things?

Literally impossible unless those three plus me are scum

ok, caught up and have calmed slightly.
I'll rescind my rage vote for now. His reason for voting Lapsa sounds OK. Plus, I really want him to be town. He has to be null I guess for a while. But seems more profitabke to concentrate on cloud kikers stuff.

UNVOTE

My run through of Cloudkicker's ISO suggests that he was attacking Gamma, Alisea, Nero and I pretty consistently. There were others, and a few he went back and forth on, but they seemed more a feature of his spazzy nature than serious attacks.

More important is how hard he defended Tywin. That's where my vote is going.

VOTE: Tywin

Pine do you think Cloud incriminated Kyouko?

Entirely inconclusive. CK was pretty neutral on them, but seemed to be buddying up in some posts. The buddying could be construed as trying to foster a Town ally, or it could be supporting a scum comrade, or any number of other things. So like I said, inconclusive.

Is there something in particular you'd like to point to that you think indicates otherwise? (genuine curiosity)

PEdit: I just went through Cloudkicker's ISO looking for references to Sonia, and concluded that she's not scum with CK. CK started out aggressive and attacking with her, then ended up giving her a blanket TR and supporting her in a couple of places. That reads to me like someone who is looking to push an attack, seeing it not working, then shifting gears to turn them into an ally. Given that Cloudkicker knew scums' identities, it rules her out too.

Personally, this gives me solid TRs on Gamma, Alisae (with the caveat that she is either Vig or SK), Nero, and Sonia, in addition to TRs on Titus and Cabd.

Primary scumread is Tywin, based mostly off of Cloudkicker's ISO, need to drill down on some more. Honestly, though, with so many quality Townreads, it makes PoE a lot easier.

Cannot decide if Tywin's massive AtE is a scum tactic or genuine frustration. It reads as the latter, which makes me question my reads, but it's also classic scum to fake fatalism.

Need to weigh Tywin objectively again.

VOTE: Unvote for now.

This is the Townbloc I'm seeing right now, by the way:

==Upstanding Citizens==
Pine - My role PM says so.
Titus - Solid Townread, supported by consistent attacks by by Cloudkicker
Cabd - Solid Townread, supported by clearing Titus. No reason to clear her or even claim if scum.

==Probationary Members==
Sonia - Interactions with Cloudkicker. See post 2301 for details.
Kyouko - Recent developments, gamesolving
Nero - Attacked consistently by Cloudkicker
Alisae - Attacked consistently by Cloudkicker, probationary due to possible (even likely) status as SK.
Gamma - Attacked consistently by Cloudkicker

That's 8/14 of the playerlist. Hunh. I've never been especially good at Townhunting, but this game seems like a bit of a perfect storm for it.

==Scumlist==
Tywin - I reread him, and the scumvibes are strong. The fact that he has pretty much gone to ground after the pressure lifted from him reinforces the notion that the initial scumread was sound, and all that AtE was an attempt to gain sympathy. Fire away, Alisae.
Mozamis - Explored elsewhere, mostly to do with disingenuous and inconsistent reads and justifications.

That leaves a remarkably small nullpile...

==Meh==
Elbirn & AJ - I keep getting these two mixed up. Neither has come off as Townish, but neither have they made any notable errors or slips. They could be scum playing it close to the vest or cautious Town. I don't know yet.
Nosferatu - Who? I looked this guy up, and his site-wide wordcount in the last ten days is smaller than this post alone. That suggests NAI lurker to me, and probably flake-bait. Complains about catching up difficulties. I can empathize with that to an extent, but come on, man. We're no longer at a 20-pages-a-day pace. Skim a bit. I won't shed any tears if he gets vigged, though I always prefer someone scummy to a lurker any day of the week.
Syryana - Again, who? I haven't interacted with this slot all game. I see a ton of fluff and nonsense in his ISO. Lots of memes, not a lot of scumhunting. Actually, he hasn't posted anywhere on site in a week.

@Mod: Can we get a replacement on Syryana? Or at least a fairly insistent prodding?

Okay, there are my thoughts. Some feedback and discussion would be appreciated. Apologies for multiposting, I know that makes me a hypocrite and I don't care.

Moxamis Tywin Nos Nero

These need to die


*back to lurking*

Cloud was attacking Nero pretty regularly. That rules him out as far as I'm concerned.

AJ has certainly gotten stinkier lately

@Titus and Cabd: I'm telling you, go read Cloudkicker's ISO. I think it vindicates Nero.

Even-though Titus complains about meta she's actively aware and spouts her "I don't bus as scum" meta. In that same street fighters game that I posted earlier, she defended one of her buddies hard....but also bussed on of her buddies hard.

My stance is that scum are plenty capable of defending their buddy but town also whiteknight/defend and I'm not skilled enough to tell the difference.

player from 2009 and ure not confident in your reads

Even-though Titus complains about meta she's actively aware and spouts her "I don't bus as scum" meta. In that same street fighters game that I posted earlier, she defended one of her buddies hard....but also bussed on of her buddies hard.

My stance is that scum are plenty capable of defending their buddy but town also whiteknight/defend and

I'm not skilled enough to tell the difference.

player from 2009 and ure not confident in your reads

sounds bogus

Anyway, nero cain what do you think of tywin/alisae/titus trifecta

I think there's also the possibility of Elbirn wich would mean one of tywin/alisae is wrong but otherwise I can see it.

You didnt really answer my question i was wondering why do you think of the interactions since you hard tr titus, do you think tywin is scum, that alisea is scum for buddying etc yada

Nero, whyd you forget to list me ?

This suggests an adversarial relationship to me. For a Traitor who knows his scumbuddies, and is not trying to get killed by them, that would seem incredibly foolhardy.

I could maybe lynch AJ tomorrow. The connection to Cloudkicker gets more damning the more I consider it

Actually, it kind of was. Nos didn't do anything overtly scummy, he just lurked a lot. That makes him the province of Vigilantes. I'll be pointing to this game as prime evidence of that axiom in the future.

We can do Nero tomorrow, or Alisae can do him tonight. He's still a null read based on lurking, while Tywin is superobvscum. If we can lynch him today, that puts us within striking distance of a Town win.

I wasn't town reading Gamma either so

vote:Gamma

pls don't listen to an OMGUSing Titus.

Okay, admittedly I'm only half paying attention these days, and planning on catching up at night, but this vote was fucking horseshit.

VOTE: Nero

^This is also kind of horseshit. VCA with red-colored names before they flip? Fuck off. I mean, I agree about Tywin, but fuck off.

Pine. Do you have ANY Thoughts about what has been going on?

And what are your reads?

I've actually been pretty upfront about my reads, and they haven't changed much, despite how much you people are vomiting into this thread. Cloudkicker's ISO analysis provided a wealth of information, much of which you've largely ignored, that I'm standing by. Let's go back to this post:

This is the Townbloc I'm seeing right now, by the way:

==Upstanding Citizens==
Pine - My role PM says so.
Titus - Solid Townread, supported by consistent attacks by by Cloudkicker
Cabd - Solid Townread, supported by clearing Titus. No reason to clear her or even claim if scum.

==Probationary Members==
Sonia - Interactions with Cloudkicker. See post 2301 for details.
Kyouko - Recent developments, gamesolving
Nero - Attacked consistently by Cloudkicker
Alisae - Attacked consistently by Cloudkicker, probationary due to possible (even likely) status as SK.
Gamma - Attacked consistently by Cloudkicker

That's 8/14 of the playerlist. Hunh. I've never been especially good at Townhunting, but this game seems like a bit of a perfect storm for it.

==Scumlist==
Tywin - I reread him, and the scumvibes are strong. The fact that he has pretty much gone to ground after the pressure lifted from him reinforces the notion that the initial scumread was sound, and all that AtE was an attempt to gain sympathy. Fire away, Alisae.
Mozamis - Explored elsewhere, mostly to do with disingenuous and inconsistent reads and justifications.

That leaves a remarkably small nullpile...

==Meh==
Elbirn & AJ - I keep getting these two mixed up. Neither has come off as Townish, but neither have they made any notable errors or slips. They could be scum playing it close to the vest or cautious Town. I don't know yet.
Nosferatu - Who? I looked this guy up, and his site-wide wordcount in the last ten days is smaller than this post alone. That suggests NAI lurker to me, and probably flake-bait. Complains about catching up difficulties. I can empathize with that to an extent, but come on, man. We're no longer at a 20-pages-a-day pace. Skim a bit. I won't shed any tears if he gets vigged, though I always prefer someone scummy to a lurker any day of the week.
Syryana - Again, who? I haven't interacted with this slot all game. I see a ton of fluff and nonsense in his ISO. Lots of memes, not a lot of scumhunting. Actually, he hasn't posted anywhere on site in a week.

@Mod: Can we get a replacement on Syryana? Or at least a fairly insistent prodding?

Okay, there are my thoughts. Some feedback and discussion would be appreciated. Apologies for multiposting, I know that makes me a hypocrite and I don't care.

So there's the foundation to work from. Since posting this, we lost Cabd, Nos, and Mozamis, and Syryana was replaced by MasonGerry.

I'd like to remind you that I caught what I think is a Towntell from Kyouko, here:

Kyouko actually comes out of this with Townpoints. I figure a scum who spotted what they thought was a Mason crumb would just kill said person and be done with it, rather than try to publicly solve the game. Or at least they'd point out the crumb to their buddies in private and not share the observation with Town.

Other changes: Nero is looking scummier to me, especially with that move on Gamma. Gamma has moved down to nullish. Both of the TRs on them from Cloudkicker's ISO were pretty weak, as he was mostly just badmouthing Nero without voting, and voted Gamma without much conviction, only to hop off without much reason. Alisae...fuck, I don't know. If you're Vig, you'll get killed before too long. If you're nonBP SK, same. If you're alive near endgame, then we can afford to look at you again. Mostly, I find your playstyle repellent, and your reasoning childish. But whatever. Elbirn and AJ are still struggling to make a lasting impression on me, but what I've seen looks generally Townish. They deserve a reread of their ISOs.

Seeing the VC, I'd prefer Tywin. I'm more certain of him.

VOTE: Tywin

wut

I want to know what the fuck is up with the error, but I feel like trying to guess is futile and counterproductive.

Okay, by my math, assuming 3 scum + Traitor, we're one off MYLO, though a lucky roleblock or Doctor could give us a reprieve. Time to stop dicking around.

VOTE: Tywin

Gerry, convince me about Nero. Cloudkicker analysis suggests Town.

The simple fact that Nero hasn't been hammered means he's scum.

You're welcome to flip me instead, but when I do flip town, Nero must go. The fact is that if we were both town, scum would hammer one of us without question. This being a tie makes it obvious.

So... Nero or me can go, but the other then needs to die. It's that simple. I'd also like Pine dead as well, so I'm cool with my lynch if we explicitly understand that Nero is dead, then Elibrin/Pine are chosen for the next lynch. AJ, you seem okay with the opposite, so if that's the case, fine. I am town, but if I have to play the game as if it's Lylo right now, I'll play it thinking Nero/Pine are scum, Elibrin is a VI, and the rest are town. If the lynch is me, then it needs to be expressly stated that Nero/Pine eat rope after I'm gone. I'll even vote myself to break the tie in that case. Bet Nero won't do that one, since he's obv scum.

Bolded is just blatantly false. There are half a dozen reasons why Town!Nero wouldn't be hammered, the most obvious is that both scum are on the wagon. Also possible is if one of the non-voters is scum, but has been standing by a Nero TR for long enough that they can't justify switching. Or maybe they're paranoid about getting suspected if they hammer him. Maybe they're afraid of VCA. These four are just off the top of my head; I'm sure I could come up with more and cleverer reasons if I thought about it for any length of time. I know that, for myself, I'm super paranoid as scum, and almost obsessively stick to my alleged reads. Not everyone is a complete neophyte.

The Nero lynch was lucky. Nero was playing a good game, and there was shit all reason for his lynch. There are two people here who are actually scummy, and you're lolTRing them for no reason I can see. The best I can tell, you rolled a die to decide your reads here.

Like holy shit you had more pr's? This was impossible for scum to win w/e

Score. My Towngame ain't dead.

Wasn't me. You seriously weren't Mason? I was sure I'd mathed out that you were the only possibility.

I assumed that someone who was supposed to survive was instead flipped. There was insufficient evidence for an allegation, as I was guessing there was a protective role in play. Besides, are you really suggesting that I didn't go hard for Tywin, who is the guy I blocked?

There were also other possibilities to consider, like the possibility of an intentional no-kill, and accidental no-kill, double-checking that I actually sent the block (I forget to take actions I fully intend to take sometimes, which made/makes me consider simple negligence as a possibility, especially as a no-kill is super anti-scum-wincon) etc.

This really isn't complicated. "Not decided" = "Not decided."

That said, it strikes me that there's no advantage to be gained from Elbirn no-killing then no-lynching.

This immediately makes me suspicious of AJ. He's kind of skated by for days when we've been distracted elsewhere.

[Elbirn]

I really am trying to make the right call here but I haven't a fucking clue, I am not good enough for this situation.

There's a lot of evidence pointing towards and against you both and I'm unsure what to make of it.

Nero pushes pine
Town-moz was a counter wagon to aj
Pine defended nero on the basis of CK analysis..but town can be wrong right?

I don't know.

[Aj The Epic]

And I don't know how you want us to help you decide.

[Elbirn]

I don't, I'm just screaming into the void whilst the both of you and the entire dead thread silently judge and loathe my stupidity and indecisiveness

[Elbirn]

Actually AJ I have a question for you.

[Aj The Epic]

Go ahead.

[Elbirn]

Are you town?

[Aj The Epic]

Yes.

[Elbirn]

Man

I really hope you're not

VOTE: Aj The Epic

[Cephrir]

Votecount 8.F

Aj The Epic 2 (Pine, Elbirn)
Pine 1 (Aj The Epic)

[Cephrir]

Aj The Epic has been lynched.

Spoiler:

He was a Townie. Elbirn (Townie) is endgamed. The Mafia team of Pine (Mafia Goon), Nero Cain, Nosferatu and CloudKicker win!