Elemental Mafia- Game Over!

[Erg0]

Vote: Macavenger

for gloating.

[Erg0]

In theory, yes. I don't think that's an option, though.

Each Day Phase will last no more than 3 weeks.

Presumably we'll still go to night at a given deadline, even if we don't specifically vote to do so. You

could

argue that we should lynch as many players as is reasonably possible during each day phase, though.

[Erg0]

I don't think that speedlynching people at random is a particularly good compromise. We need to find a balance between quality and quantity, but I don't think we should be afraid of lynching multiple people per day - especially in the early game when we have a chance to quickly eliminate one or more of the cult leaders before they can gather too many recruits.

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You missed the little / there, I think.

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Man, I can't leave you guys alone for a minute.

Looks like I have some heavy reading to do...

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Pretty sure armlx isn't voting for himself.

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I largely agree with elvis's reasoning. Hammering while backing away from the wagon is something I often see from scum.

Unvote, Vote: jediknight

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That would be correct, yes. I was busy over the weekend when the game exploded, hence I missed something like 14 pages of action. I'm playing now, though.

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I strongly support a jedi wagon in opposition to an armlx wagon. Jedi looks way scummier to me right now.

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diescumdie.

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We've got plenty of lynches to play with, I don't see one more kill making much of a difference. The only reason to let him live would be the hope that one of the cults would kill him tonight instead of recruiting, but I see that as highly unlikely. Either way, he knows that we're not going to let him live to endgame so he has no incentive to act in our best interests.

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To roland...mac jailed you? I blocked you? And elvis claims she did as well. I think you got some 'splaining to do.

Mac jailed DGB.

[Erg0]

Allegedly.

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Wait though. We've got 4 lynches left. Why not use the other 3 first and then come back to him? If we hit no recruiters I kinda wanna let him live. We take out 2 or 3, fine, string him up.

It's 3 lynches remaining and 9 days 'til deadline. I somewhat agree with what you're saying, but I'm dubious about being able to fit three lynches into that timeframe, especially given that we'll need to get consensus on the plan first.

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Given that two people have claimed blocks on Roland, there's a very good chance that he actually was blocked. I'm thinking he might be worth looking at since he would have no recruits if he's a cult leader.

[Erg0]

But the blockers had no information they just blocked him so that doesn't make him more or less likely to be a CL. Now the fact that he's lurking massively bothers me but he's been prodded I guess we wait and see.

Yah, for sure - I'm not advocating a vote based purely on the block(s). They do weigh on the cost/benefit of lynching him if we

do

find him suspicious, though.

[Erg0]

Why can't you block a recruit?

In my other cult game, leaders send their choice at night, so my block would work on them. But cults recruits join at beginning of the next day, so I don't think it would affect them.

Is this wrong?

A block only stops an active ability, so a block on a recruit doesn't stop them from being recruited. A jailkeeper would probably be able to stop someone from being recruited, though.

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The highest priority, at this point, is making sure we get 2 kills in before deadline. Who they are is secondary.

I think you may want to justify that statement a little better.

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Yeah, the Lowell thing: I didn't really see his comment as being the kind of thing a CL would say at this point - he's largely been under the radar up til now and would put a big target on his back by saying something like that close to deadline. That said, I was interested to see who would leap onto the wagon, which was why I drew attention to his statement myself. Of the wagon-hoppers, Andy's was the most "me-too" vote.

Vote: Andycyca

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Who are you talking to? armlx?

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That would make more sense, I suppose.

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I support the approach in general, but I'm not going to vote for someone that I don't think is scum (namely armlx or Lowell) just because they have a bunch of votes on them.

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Ok, let's go with this, then.

Unvote, Vote: kabenon007

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Why not try armlx first for a claim? More claims = Moar info IMHO

Why would you ask this after Muerrto and I had just said that we don't find armlx scummy?

[Erg0]

D'oh - I thought Muerrto was still voting kab. In that case:

Unvote, Vote: andycyca

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At present my vote is partially motivated by the chance of a given wagon getting some numbers before deadline. I don't have strong enough suspicions of any individual to push them above all others, and Andy looks like a better chance of attracting sufficient votes than you do.

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Unvote, Vote: Xtoxm

This is an acceptable wagon.

I tend to think that at least one of our claimers is lying. Either that or we're incredibly unlucky.

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I tend to think that ooba's telling the truth. He raised some good points on town strategy early in the game.

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I'm pretty sure that he was the first to suggest that we lynch as many times as possible each day.

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His suggestion was even less favourable to the cults than mine, though.

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I suppose we may be better off lynching him now that he's come out as being recruitable. Is there something I'm not thinking of here?

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When is the deadline exactly?

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I doubt we'll get another lynch in if armlx's deadline calculations are correct (I can never figure out timezones, but I'm taking his word for it).

I'm leaning towards thinking that our recruiters are likely to be staying off the radar, based purely on the number of apparent power roles that we've picked out amongst the reasonably active players so far. In reality there's probably a mix between the two approaches.

I'm not going to hammer ooba just now, but I'll hammer him before deadline if somebody else doesn't do it first.

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I'm ok with lynching kabenon before deadline.

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Yeah, that's what I thought.

Unvote, Vote: kabenon007

As far as me not voting - I didn't really see the point in lynching ooba. He was a poor recruiting target either way.

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I'd like to see a claim from kabenon at this point.

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Is Lowell the type to attempt to use reverse psychology? I don't have a meta on him at all.

vote: Korlash

I said it yesterday, and I'll say it again today; directing the cults only serves the scum.

This is arguably true, but it doesn't make Korlash scum. Why would a cultist be posting hints for the other cults?

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mneme: I see what you're getting at, but experience leads me to think that Korlash just likes to speculate. If anything, I'd expect him to do this as cult in order to stick to his meta.

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And FYI, Anyone trying to direct scum is obviously not scum.

Yeah, this is the mentality that I was worried about.

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Xtoxm: Why did you choose to investigate me?

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Muerrto: You're right, the cops are only really useful if they get a guilty result. However, I'm interested in hearing his reason for choosing me.

Lowell: You die in the place of the person you're protecting, yes?

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How does bodyguard = roleblocker? Do you also protect your target?

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Doesn't a bodyguard guard his target and keep him from being targetted but also stop him from doing anything?

Wait...isn't that about the same thing as jailkeeper?

Do we really have 3 role blockers???

Hm....

Hence my question. A bodyguard is more usually the role that Dead Rik described above.

[Erg0]

Presumably the other claimed roleblockers would tell us if they blocked Muerrto last night?

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Hmm, ok. If Lowell were a blocker then I'd expect his PM to tell him so. Guess it's down to whether Muerrto thinks he was blocked.

[Erg0]

Vote: Lowell

I don't see him target forgetting what his role does when he just put in a night choice a few days ago. I also can't see him targeting someone with a block because he thought they were pro-town. I don't think we can let him go through to tomorrow on the strength of this claim.

[Erg0]

I could see Lowell really being a Bodyguard and hiding the bit where he dies or get culted instead of the person he was protecting.

This is an interesting idea. If I weren't out to get recruiters first, I just might get on the Lowell wagon.

I don't really like this line of thinking. I don't think we're in a position to pick and choose which bad guys to lynch first.

[Erg0]

Well yeah, that's the other reason I don't like it. I'd almost say it's too obvious, but if Lowell comes up as a cultist then I think Cavebear has a shot at being his buddy.

[Erg0]

What would be the difference between lynching Lowell now and lynching him later in the day?

Also, why do you think he doesn't look like a cult leader?

[Erg0]

Unvote

I want to see where this is going.

[Erg0]

His uberlurk for a while and what he did similar to Erg0 at the end of yesterday.

Your logic is faulty. The only reason for either Korlash or I to delay yesterday's lynch as scum would be if one of the last two lynchees was our buddy. Otherwise we'd have nothing to lose by clearing the field a little more.

[Erg0]

13 pages on a weekend? I hate you all.

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It's pretty clear that Xtoxm's investigation on me was related to his post expressing suspicion of me at the end of day 1. As I previously mentioned, I have a problem with the logic he used to justify this and his later vote for Korlash. Muerrto is similarly oversimplifying things at this point.

I could almost flip a coin between Xtoxm and DGB - I could definitely see DGB doing something like this as cult. My biggest issue is her apparent belief that she could be a half-cop along with Xtoxm, when there's really no evidence to support that idea. Her recent bluster looks to me like an attempt to cover for her slip.

Vote: DrippingGoofball

[Erg0]

I said it was

almost

a coinflip. In practical terms, this means that I won't argue against an Xtoxm lynch, but I'd prefer to lynch DGB first. What you're talking about is called mindless wagoning.

[Erg0]

So I should lynch the peson that I think is slightly more likely to be the cop, so that we can get a little more discussion time? This is not a decision to be made lightly, it could conceivably end up being a deciding factor in the outcome of the game.

[Erg0]

I was able to confirm that Macavenger jailed me.

Objectively, that's a point in favor of my claim being truthful.

We have no confirmation that Mac is actually a jailkeeper, thus we have no evidence that your confirmation was made truthfully. Even if he had been confirmed, it's conceivable that you would go with the flow and claim you were blocked in order to avoid rocking the boat (mixed metaphor ftw!). Objectively, all that this proves is that you were intending to claim a blockable role.

[Erg0]

Didn't I confirm that he is a jailkeeper before he said that he targeted me? I'm going to check.

That might actually make a difference if true, but it still doesn't count as confirmation for either of you.

Regardless, you ignored the more relevant part of my post - i.e. the part that applies to your admission to being blocked confirming your role.

[Erg0]

Muerrto and DGB: Do you think that Xtoxm is temperature cult or density cult?

[Erg0]

Xtoxm claimed temp cop erg0. Specifically temp cop/

To clarify: which cult do you think he's in?

[Erg0]

Muerrto's trying way too hard here. "Gone AWOL" my ass.

Both you and DGB obviously haven't thought very deeply about the theories you're propounding, because it is

extremely

relevant which cult Xtoxm is in. If he's in one of the temperature cults then it's highly unlikely that he would falsify innocent results on his buddies, because if one of them died it would be immediately obvious that he's lying. If he's in one of the density cults then he either has to out his buddies by claiming innocents on them, or he has to take guesses at others' alignments, hence he opens himself up to other cults realising that he has fakeclaimed and killing him.

I know that the general level of critical thinking has been pretty low in this game, but at least try to come with theories that make sense at more than a superficial level.

[Erg0]

Muerrto: You don't get to make a craplogic case and then say it's irrelevant when I refute it. If I don't argue this now, while it's fresh, it may later be accepted as fact by those who are simply hopping on every wagon that comes up - not to mention that it undermines my ability to hunt cults for the remainder of the game.

In any case, the point here is not just

my

alignment, it's

yours

as well.

[Erg0]

Way to ignore the majority of my post. I don't care how confirmed you think you are, you're not acting in a pro-town manner at the moment.

[Erg0]

Alrighty, then.

Unvote

I like the fact that the entire town apparently does not share Muerrto's opinion of himself, but Pooky's suspicions above appear to come back to essentially the same argument that Muerrto and DGB have attempted to use against me. I can't say that I support Muerrto-as-recruit at this point, but I've definitely got my eye on him.

More to come.

[Erg0]

Please expand on that, taking into account my earlier explanation of why a temp recruiter would not claim a temp cop innocent on those he culted.

[Erg0]

I took BM's response to mean that the cult recruits could still use the cult's kill power, even though the recruiter was dead. I'm guessing Pooky thought the same thing. Is that a correct assessment? I'm pretty sure that BM wouldn't be giving us clues about which roles would retain their abilities when recruited.

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I like how you totally backed down and changed your position while trying to look like you were maintaining the same argument. Perhaps if you hadn't disregarded my earlier question you wouldn't have to make it up as you go along.

If I were a recruiter, how could I actually know which of you was the cop in that scenario? You may call it obvious, but I hardly think you're the most objective person to make that assessment. I stated the reasons that I thought you were slightly more likely than Xtoxm to be cult, and I believe that those reasons were valid. You'll note that I was still asking you questions and assessing the situation after I voted. Your attempt to steamroll the discussion, along with your continued insistence that any point of view other than your own was ridiculous made you look very scummy in my eyes. You're still doing it, but the role-based evidence in favour of your claim is now strong enough to outweigh your behaviour.

[Erg0]

I took BM's response to mean that the cult recruits could still use the cult's kill power, even though the recruiter was dead. I'm guessing Pooky thought the same thing. Is that a correct assessment? I'm pretty sure that BM wouldn't be giving us clues about which roles would retain their abilities when recruited.

Thats what I took it as. Read the role PMs, the killing ability seems directly tied to the recruiter.

Do you mean you took it as BM giving us clues on who retains abilities?

I did read the PMs, and noted two things:

1. It is implied that the kill is tied to the recruiter.

2. Recruits may not know if their abilities will be retained on recruitment.

It seemed more likely to me that BM was clarifying the first point, rather than undermining the second. I'm happy to be corrected if I'm wrong, though.

[Erg0]

If he's town then Muerrto's either angling for recruitment tonight or signing his own death warrant by repeatedly talking about how great his claim is, especially given he's only got one vote on him. I don't understand why he thought it would be a good idea to start talking about his role (in 1615) the first time I even questioned his alignment, when there are only two lynches left today and it's fairly unlikely that he'll be one of them. Surely that's the kind of information that you'd want to hold onto until the following day?

I hadn't read Cavebear's claim until just now, and I have to agree that it sounds pretty far fetched. Is there anything more to the case against him than that?

[Erg0]

So it's the second option: you're trying to get yourself killed?

[Erg0]

Fair enough.

I still don't particularly support lynching you today, I'm just baffled by what you're doing.

[Erg0]

I'm currently looking back to find the relevant posts on Cavebear. Will hammer after that if I'm satisfied he's a good lynch.

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How are we so sure that the supersaint claim is BS? Lord Hur's death on day 1 occurred under unusual circumstances apparently related to a post restriction. I don't think that we can categorically rule out Cavebear's role purely because it's wacky.

[Erg0]

50%. odds is the least of it. Losing the role off a claim, etc.

Dying when you post a certain phrase (as Lord Hur apparently did) is a fairly similar condition to losing your ability if it's guessed. I'd actually consider this more likely to be true than the 50% aspect.

[Erg0]

Looking back, I'd say the most damning point against Cavebear is actually his persistent fishing for claims of powers and recruitability. Even now, at lynch-1, he's trying to convince the town to get claims from more players before we lynch him. His attack on Pooky isn't what I'd call a defence, and his push for claims reads like an attempt to be slightly more useful to his cult before he dies.

Might a recruiter, might be a recruit. The latter is plausible - I'm not as convinced as some that his role is fabricated. Between that and the other points against him there's enough for a lynch, however.

Vote: Cavebear with a toothache

[Erg0]

Waiting for the power role claims, but I'm looking at a pretty narrow field right now if there are no revelations there.

[Erg0]

That was poorly worded; I meant to say that I'm waiting for the power roles to claim their results.

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Yeh I had an inkling that Muerrto was breadcrumbing unkillable, which was why I was trying to push a kill towards him. Probably didn't work, but it was worth a shot.

I know for a fact that Pooky is lying - there's no possible way that there are only three unculted townies (including Pooky) at this point, since I know that armlx and DGB are clean.

Vote: PookytheMagicalBear

I think we're good from here - even if Pooky isn't a recruiter, the second lynch is highly likely to nail one of the leaders. From there the other recruiter has very limited options tonight.

[Erg0]

Missed Pooky's "correction" above. Still don't buy it, though.

[Erg0]

Not specifically, no. I did make a point of mentioning him several times on day 1 when I was completely out of touch with the rest of the game, though.

[Erg0]

*waves*

You guys don't do anything slowly, do you?

[Erg0]

Not really. Thoughts on who should block/watch who?

I haven't quite got my head wrapped around things yet, but the chain block plan sounds reasonable to me at first glance.

[Erg0]

Mac's block stops kills on his target, from memory.

[Erg0]

I'd say atm since DGB is confirming you, you're not cult.

DGB only confirmed Mac is a blocker, not whether he was recruitable. Only his ability is confirmed right now.

[Erg0]

I'm still resolving all of this in my mind. Hoping that DGB has something good for us, otherwise I'll probably have to do a scenario list.

[Erg0]

What was the proof of Muerrto's claim? I think I missed that.

[Erg0]

Ah, k. Guess that's as close as we'll get to proof that he's unrecruitable. One other thing - looking back at the post that Muerrto quotes above:

Well, RB and jailkeeper, though similar have different applications in this game.

I can only block cult recruiters from recruiting.

(I can also block town power roles if I choose incorrectly, or could have blocked wayne were he still alive). But the only really good thing I can do for the town is block a cult recruiter. There's only four of them in the entire game.

Jailkeeper role is different and actually more powerful because it can block a recruiter, or a recruit. So this role can work on many more people and help town more.

In context, I think elvis means that she has to block the person performing the action for her ability to work, whereas Mac can prevent someone from being recruited by targeting them at night. The reference to blocking Wayne indicates that she is also claiming to be able to stop kills, even though she doesn't mention cult kills specifically.

[Erg0]

Mac: The only way I could see elvis killing you despite your block would be if she's able to block and kill on the same night. If she gets her PM in first then her block stops yours, which means that her kill can then go through. Her kill shouldn't go past your block on its own, no matter what.

Based on roles, I think we might be better off killing elvis today. I'd rather have a culted tracker hanging around tonight that a culted roleblocker, and getting elvis out of the way should mean that we can get a conclusive result from Mac's block.

[Erg0]

Actually, never mind. I don't think elvis is cult now that I look at it.

Is there anything else we need to talk about pre-hammer?

[Erg0]

LOL

Ok, let's discuss.

[Erg0]

Also, the night 0 mneme result isn't actually confirmed accurate since Adel was dead when he claimed it - the fact that it was used to defend mneme doesn't really help Kison's case.

I had considered Kison's fighting as a factor, and although it's a slight town tell, it also makes me nervous when I consider why scum might fight so hard in an apparently unwinnable situation.

Mac: Can I suggest that you unvote so that you can lay down the hammer and then submit your night choice immediately?

[Erg0]

A point to note: if elvis missed getting her block in then the same might have happened with her kill (if she has one).

[Erg0]

Was JDTay flip-floppy?

[Erg0]

Was JDTay flip-floppy?

No clue. The title was actually intended for him and accidentally applied to my account.

I just realised our join dates are exactly two years apart.

I still can't decide who to vote for.

[Erg0]

Dude, you killed the party.

[Erg0]

Lol, winning as town after during N1 Erg0 + I were discussing the best ways to get one of us recruited.

You wanted to be recruited? If one of you was recruited was the other as well? OR assuming that cult later won without recruiting the second lover, did the non recruited lover win with that cult and have his number count towards their majority?

Yah, if one of us got recruited then the other was as well. I liked armlx's mason claim, it was exactly what I would have claimed at the time even though we hadn't discussed it.

Also, I'd like to make it clear that I'm the man in the relationship.

[Erg0]

I should give some proper comments, I guess.

I was kind of a passenger for a fair bit of this game, so I can't take too much credit for the win (though I was glad that I eventually swung it the right way on the last lynch). I think that the fast lynch policy was the town's best option, but I think we may have taken it a little too far at times, as there were at least a couple of people that shouldn't have been run up so quickly (these were the ones I argued against, can't even remember who they were now). Of course, in this sort of game the scum can always make a fakeclaim to live through the first day, so the lack of success at the start wasn't all that surprising.

We got kind of lucky on the lack of recruiting, though - one of the cults grabbing me and armlx could have made a big difference to the numbers at the end. armlx was an awesome partner, as he kept himself well and truly clear of suspicion for the whole game. I kind of knew I shouldn't have gone against the majority on the DGB/Xtoxm thing in such a lynch-happy game (and I probably made it worse by challenging Muerrto), but I can't help being contrary sometimes.

This was good fun as a less serious game, and I wouldn't mind having another go at something similar if my free time permits. The first week of these big games can be a bit of a time sink...