Newbie 1718 [Game Over!] Mafia

[Lycanfire]

I'll go through the whole thread when I get back from work, thanks for having me

[Lycanfire]

i had to drink to take notes for this game and i think i'm putting myself in harms way if i go any further than page8 for the night. i hope you're all happy.

[Lycanfire]

Thoughts

-Racer's content wasn't bad knowing that he was town, but despite trying to analyze people, he never bothered pushing a read. I don't blame any one for voting him and the day1 Racer votes were obvtown.

-The MNS wagon yesterday was bad. Post #240 was made up bullshit and Kraska got a round of applause for having such a great opening. MNS said it was RVS, then said it wasn't after House's reaction. Kraska saying #18 is too late for RVS is lazy. It certainly wasn't late, because House sure didn't like it (#24). She eventually made a good post, but it was read as bad, w/e good interactions

anyway...back to scum hunting
i think we should lynch makesnosense today. i know this has been mostly covered by others already, but the case seems to have lost momentum for some reason so i want to bring it back into picture. im confident about this one. there is just no town motivation or reasoning behind any of the moves/explanations they made. says their house vote was made with the intention of collecting more information, but house was already talking. no matter how i look at it, it just doesnt add up. then says it was RVS, but even then, considering that the mood of the game had clearly picked up from just "random voting" at the point when that vote would cast, it still makes no sense to choose to pressure a person who is already very actively engaged in the game. seems to me like mafia trying and failing to anticipate a potential wagon.

-Kaori is obvtown. Her entrance was scummy. House nailed it, but all it did was force Kaori to spill her guts about trying to discern his alignment. I pegged him as town early on, so I don't see why. NS/Kaori explicitly stated knowledge of House/RCs meta which was never denied. If I trust this, it's town intentioned. Otherwise it goes over my head.

-I have in my notes to have Dr Pepper hang several times, but for some reason people decided discerning House and RCs alignment was more important than putting him to L-1 for the shitposts of #52, #61, #91, #107, #139 (this one was almost ok, then he ruined it) #142, #157, #169, #174. he wanted to lynch foe, who I thought was pretty townie, then seemingly vanished when kaori entered, and after the dust settled he appeared to offer lipservice about how she seemed ok. Associatives don't say much, their interaction was about Kaori, with Kaska going aggro and DP unconvinced, so this is a negative tie. Key(smurph/kraska) did interact and tie himself strongly to DP once, and I mainly dismissed it as too obvious/simply scum intentioned from key. My problem is that my two scummiest choices interacted twice across two replacements with two opposite types of interactions. The only moment where I thought DP was ok when he claimed, but he has ignored a would-be easy lynch, went onto RC, then onto Racer for some reason. Also, I don't agree that if DP's scum, his aggression on RC would be strange, but flipping in #769 sure is. His town sweetspot was on RC, who he maintains as still scumread.

So to get day rolling-Kraska/DP scumteam thoughts. VOTE: Kraska Kraska is the most scummy, particularly post 240, scumreading Kaori to being on the Aishuu wagon. Yes Aishuu imploded, but I already said I'm reading Kaori as town and said day1 Racer votes were town, so a not-caught-up Fiddler landed his vote in a very innocent place. The entire scumteam is on this wagon. I don't want to see any other lynch today, but I don't want to finalize anything without finishing my notes.

I'm pretty sure the entire wagon vs. ai_shuuuu was town, but if anyone disagrees I'd like to know...

Consider this to be your answer. if you don't agree, vote me. We're only looking at the foe/aishuu wagon today.

----

full list of reads is possible. i'm willing/happy to elaborate on any of this i would on request i simply have no interest in making a wall case at 4am knowing that i'm getting up at 6 and spending a portion of my morning completing deep analysis in a thread that makes me question every second post.

[Lycanfire]

I'm caught up. I'm not going forward without a Kaori replacement and a response from Kraska.

VOTE: Dr Pepper

This vote is going back down for now though.

Then this is a problem. My post #808 is laser focused at you RC. I guess this is my answer?

cases incoming

I'll start off by saying that DP as scum in Kraska scum scenario is a red herring. Why would I declare DP most likely scum partner and not vote the scummy PR claim? No, in fact I put my vote on Kraska and said it was going to stay there. As I said in my first post there was another partner I was considering, and that's who the post was aimed at.

Let me preface this by saying that I will probably eternally nullread RC and be suspicious of him because my reads never match his own. Going over this game I disagreed with him all over, but I also disagreed with him until day 2 Newbie 1717 until he became obvtown. So long as RC pushes his reads, I think I can stand his playstyle. That's what I wanted to think until I saw these exchanges.

Kraska's entrance was really town, I liked her vote, and I was townreading her predecessors.

This post was beyond a joke to me. Kraska later admits that #240 was a bad post. If there's something I know I need to be more assertive about, it's perception and who is trying to control it. Kraska lands at his towniest slot. Too obvious for scum!RC? I spoke about "interesting interactions", and this is what I meant.

Feel free to share your thoughts but after seeing Kraska flail around for a page, I was surprised to see a good post like this come out of Kraska:

Spoiler: Post 306, 309, 313(!!)

tbh the thing i find most curious about this is how some of the people on the wagon do not have harlii as the highest scum read, and yet quickly jumped on the wagon.
let's see.
DP insists foe is scum, but then happily goes for a harlii lynch. why?
dont know about house but post 207 obviously means harlii was not a main scum read for him. i get the impression house prefers a DP lynch instead. am i wrong?
giga's changing votes makes it difficult to know who she really reads as scum, this is what i meant when i said changing votes so often is problematic. dont know how serious she is about getting harlii lynched. giga i would appreciate it if you weigh in on this
dont know about RC, but i get the impression they've been throwing votes so far to test reactions(?)(????)
for the record i have harlii as null leaning red, mostly because i feel like they have not made a real push on anyone so far, not really an appreciable read as you can see so i wont join this wagon until i have more solid reason to suspect harlii
oh and racer's reasoning for why harlii should be lynched is too weak


atm pretty sure there's atleast one scum in this pool: mns, DP, racer
fos: house and rc

Posts 306 and 309 in the context of the Harlii wagon are very good, but 313 is the one I liked the most.

RC wasn't as happy as I was:

I really hate Kraska's recent posting.

Since I didn't think I'd get much out of RC as a player I had to go by motive. Forget town!RC, would a townie think this? I couldn't wrap my head around it, so I considered scum motives. You could think of many, but RC didn't seem too bothered beyond thinking it was bad. He wasn't the only one, but taking Harlii's posting seriously esp. after they decided to sheep RC is pretty pointless. In my eyes post #318 was a distancing post and an excuse argue Kraska stopped being his top town read at around this post if ever questioned about later support of Kraska.

Finally, RC's ISO is so incredibly in depth for him, but in the end they all point to reads that are meanngless to me, in addition to that I'm not used to him being so unsure. It seems like he's going with the flow while not immediately calling for people to hang. This game was a clusterfuck and a half to read through, but RC proved in Newbie 1717 that he is able to ignore noise, protest, other peoples cases and whatever else is necessary to stay on his target.

Meanwhile, the "BP must claim" proposition was the most confident I've seen him all game. He pursued the BP dilemma like he was scumhunting which is uncharacteristic for this thread anyway. He got his claim despite DrPepper not having to say anything (??????????). In the DP as town scenario this only hurts us, so why do it? Motive says scum!RC could argue that pushing so hard for this is town, but I would say that scum!RC has a lot to gain and nothing to lose for this push. It's only scum!RC that could know whether there was a BP present (presence of RB), town!RC can't know for sure, and can only point us to theory. The cat comes leaping out the bag and RC goes on an emotional tangent the moment DP pushes back. He shouldn't know whether DP is telling the truth or not but pressured someone they previously townread hard (#123/125/261/362). None of this looks right ignoring the fact DP didn't have to claim.

This actually all looks pretty good on RC. You want to see someone active, aggressive, but this is topped by what looks like a genuine display of emotion... This outburst is something I noticed in Newbie 1717 too when he had enough with one of the goons tunneling me (this host, actually), swore at them and said he would policy lynch them if he continued. RC then lamented that he was going to die anyway (because town!RC reasons) and fake claimed cop as tracker and inno in a gambit. So, my problem with RC going allcaps lamenting about his impending death either by lynch or NK is that the last time he let his emotions bleed into the game, he was lying, and claimed inno on scum to get people to sheep his read. Whatever is going on here, it's anti-town to be sure either by manipulation or staging the BP claim.

Meanwhile #657+827. Are you prompting him to say something?

[Lycanfire]

answers

So, if you're going to scumread Kraska, I have to ask – why would she pick MNS as her mislynch and not change it when no one else joined her? There was a perfectly fine mis (assuming that DP/Kraska is the scumteam) lynch in Harlii that started pretty shortly after that.

It really doesn't matter who scum!Kraska picks so long as they appear to be scumhunting. It was a lazy, awful post, so it's suspicious.

Two. Lycan makes me okay with my vote. Me ignoring a would be easy lynch would be the shitty thing to do if I was scum. Why fight a losijg battle with RC. And then you discredit my Racer vote despite the fact that me and RC called for a truce for 3 days.

1) ofc you want the easy lynch as scum. kaori is the easiest lynch available rn.
2) Why is RC a losing battle? They're your top read aren't they?
3) Yes, you voted racer because you gave your top read a "truce". Get real.

I'm honestly considering replacing out if this is the level of scum play in this game. Not challenging or fun in the least and lazy as hell

People don't usually put conclusions at the beginning of their post unless they're creating the narrative afterwards.

Meanwhile, #475 doesn't help your case at all. Admitting a bad post is bad is the only thing you can do. Accusing someone isn't going to make them appear if they're scum-you have to ask them questions. If you want to make them try to fly under the radar, then accuse them all you want. Also, the "now being interested in Kaori" bit is hilarious. I'll take this opportunity to answer Giga.

I would seriously give you so much towncred if you hammer right now.

You just done even know.

hey

@lycan and kaori

why do you think House felt this way about Kraska?

Spoiler: 440,441

Seriously? Is this your attempt at deflecting a lynch. I am pretty sure you're scum now. If by some weird chance you are saying the truth and you're town, then not only did you play pretty badly, but you're also making baseless recs for future lynches.

You're scum though, period. And I'm not letting this lynch not happen.

I think we only need two more votes. There is no need to rush though, I'm going to see who will buy your shit.
there is no reason for me to follow your read on dp, it amounts to nothing more than meta. Likewise i did not give much weight to the experienced player's comments on RC, i just put him out of the picture of day 1 because I know his voting patterns will speak more volumes than the explanations he won't make (and gets away with not making for some weird reason). Just because I've not paid much attention to him on this day doesn't mean I won't in day 2 (if i stay alive, that is).

If we do wind up lynching Kaori and he flips town, I'm going to become very interested in kraska.

Kraska said he wasn't going to not let the Kaori lynch go through. House noted this, and knowingly asked Kraska to hammer when there was still two days left. Kraska obliged, but the obvious consequence was that if Aishuu and Kaori are town, Kraska is scummy as sin for wanting two mislynches.

Exactly why is harlii town then? Because I'm scum reading him for the exact same reason.

1) Harlii/Fiddler voted Racer day 1, not Aishuu.
2) Harlii was obv noob town

3)

Overall, from what I can read, this seems to be some pretty weak logic and your case against Kraska is flimsy at best. I'm getting a slightly scummy vibe off this, tbh, but I can't figure out why a scum!Lycan would want to lynch Kraska.

This is 100% obvtown. My argument was intentionally flawed.

then imply that koari acquitted himself as town later. Except koari has done pretty much nth since his entrance+accidental alt reveal. He has done nth since house's tunnel on him. That is like pretty much the bulk of his posts in the game so far. So you admit it's scummy lol

1) Reads the same scumteam as me
2) Didn't scumread Harlii
3) Wasn't on the Aishuu wagon

[Lycanfire]

Anyways, clearing Kaori/Fiddler was necessary to put the scumteam on the Aishuu wagon. The scumteam is there, and it's either Kraska/RC or RC/DP.

[Lycanfire]

i made an error in #833 by implying that DP wants a kaori lynch. i thought he said in #810 "ignoring an easy lynch would be a shitty thing to do as scum"

[Lycanfire]

Idk, Lycan, someone else besides RC and Harlii seemed to dislike that set of posts, and they're confirmed town...

citing house when he's unclear what he was referring too is awfully lazy. if i want a confirmed townies' opinion why don't you give me yours? or is there a problem with that question?

Although, I am starting to feel a bit shakier about town!RC. Lycan, you were in 1717, which was running concurrently with our game's day 1. Why was RC much more active in that game than he is here if he was also busy? I also do think it's weird that as DP said, RC hasn't utilized the three-day truce. This isn't enough for me to change my read, but it's just making me uneasy that RC isn't doing anything too helpful when he posts now. I really would like more content from him.

RC wasn't more active in 1717. If anything he was more active here while the other game was going. This seems to be pretty standard RC. Still, I thought it was strange that he left some pretty big posts in this thread when he didn't in the other, and he hasn't exactly been tunneling either.

You've done jack shit since the truce, you havent analyzed anyone else and you're continuing this low activity shit???

Also, he never said he would push a read... Just that he would let others look at people that aren't DP. It was sort of implied that he would put in some effort with the "if you're town maybe I'll impress you" comment but no real promise was made.

RC or me guys

coming from the person that gave up and accepted their lynch earlier in the day there's no way i'm to play ball. i'll give you one opportunity to call his partner, but don't expect to be prompted again, because you should have done that already.

[Lycanfire]

Ok.. For starters I thought it was obvious that I was scumreading DP. I already spilled my notes compiled on him. The whole "it must be DP/Lycan" arg from RC is very scummy to me, because he's smart enough to see that my Kraska vote was put there to piss people off. If I believe Kraska/RC or RC/DP to be the scumteams, then my real intended lynch was RC if he behaved the way I thought he would. Insisting on DP made me more confident in Kraska/RC, but this RC v DP arg has me uneasy. I'm willing to say it's SvT or TvT, because if this is a SvS continuation of a bus I was paranoid about since the matter of BP I think both should be banned after this game. Threatening double replacements this late into the game is bullshit. To make it a plan to set up a fight like this is so dumb, that I want it to not be the case.

DP self vote is super scummy. Simoyd did this as town in 1717 and I loved it, because he was using it as a gun to the town's head to convince our PR (RC) to call his partner before day's end, with the reasoning if his partner couldn't be BlankFace (who was "cleared" by RC) his partner must be someone unreasonable, or there was an entirely different team. There's no real gambit here, besides a "fuck you good luck in lylo ps fuck RC" post. This isn't the first time he's given up either (#721). #748 looks almost like a scumslip tbh going back through his ISO. And again I'm going to say that RC never said he was going to do anything during his "truce".

This is just a quick post asking for some calm while I re-evaluate the game by removing the possibility of RC/DP.

[Lycanfire]

I'm sorry my post is going to have to come in the morning. Accepting DP as scum without RC as partner hurts my reads, and consequently my pride. I want to look again with a fresh mind because I feel like I've been going over the same posts for the last hour trying to see something to tip me in one direction.

[Lycanfire]

If neither of us is his partner ask yourself who is.... and you will experience my hell

[Lycanfire]

Read my posts in their entirety and it's obvious.

[Lycanfire]

I caught onto the exchange too, but the problem was that it was made while a Kaori lynch was on the table. Meaning, no night talk.

[Lycanfire]

I don't want to believe a Kaori/DP team because it would be stupid. I think Fiddler/DP is more likely due to DP persuing him without scumhunting him. This is my hell, because to proceed with DP as scum w/o RC as partner means to pick one of these teams.

Also... Why I'm not enthused to point this out to Fiddler.

I would

want

Kraska/RC to be the team because it wouldn't compromise the reads I made to get there. That's why looking at the game without RC/DP scumteam troubles me and why I need to case Kaori and Fiddler as town or scum to justify a lynch on one of the three teams. RC was a previously safe lynch to me, now he isn't.

[Lycanfire]

Here's an idea, lynch me nowm so when I flip town, you guys have a slightly clearer view on everything now. I'm vote parked at this point. If this lynch will help town because there wouldn't be any more divisiveness and shit, and IV won't have to look for another replacement, and I wouldn't have to deal with people attacking me personally and discrediting me despite getting banned twice for doing so, then so be it.

VOTE DOCTORPEPPER, MAKE NEWBIE 1718 GREAT AGAIN

You have two and a half people skeptical about your lynch what is the town motive for this

My pride isn't going to let me vote you. I'm calling the team today regardless of your shitposts.

[Lycanfire]

My problem with Harlii was that he didn't have any reasoning to go on the DP wagon. DP was obv day 1 scum to me until Kraska appeared and made him look tame. So not only did Harlii not have reasoning, because he was sheeping House, he also didn't need it, because in Harlii/DP, he could have been assuming that House had reasoning.

Except, House admits he didn't (#146). Harlii makes several comments about not being sold despite being putting DP to L-1, doesn't unvote for 4 posts. After House abandons the wagon in favor of Racer #262 Harlii begins to case House and actively works against himself... #267 he tries again and seems more upset at House than suspicious of his motives regarding the DP wagon. In Harlii/DP, it wouldn't seem strange to me for Harlii to try to case House if it seemed like House had nothing to begin with, but he makes the mistake of focusing on his perception in regards to House and how he feels incriminated, making it personal over something definitively scummy. His case references the House's giga gambit, which I liked a lot, so it was pointless. Harlii then revises this in #319 which seemed like an innocuous post until you think about why he was voting House at all.

Basically it seemed like he was waiting for someone to push a House wagon for him, esp. considering his case starts in 262 and he explicitly considers town motives for House. This was the case I was thinking of for Fiddler's slot, and working with DP as scum but NOT with RC scenario made me suspect this a lot more with DP vague Fiddler scumteams.

Kaori/DP was pure associatives. Super obvious, easy to mess up. And dumb.

I don't see Kraska/DP at all. There were some associatives, but as I already said they were obvious (Key) or weak-DP was in support of Kaori, while Kraska explicitly - or supposedly - wanted Kaori lynched, and no one else day 1. They interacted over this a few times. Kaori was the easiest lynch at least until Aishuu decided to implode, so why would they disagree on Kaori but agree on Aishuu if both were easy lynches?

UNVOTE:

Intent to vote DP but I want Kraska/Kaori posts + there's a self vote. Pretend that's mine.

[Lycanfire]

My problem with Harlii was that the wagon on him looked scummy, and if I could read him I would read Kaori harder. This put the team on the Aishuu wagon, and I referenced my notes with that wagon to get RC/Kraska RC/DP. If I eliminate RC, I have to consider Kaori and Fiddler. If I want to keep my pride and consider you, I'd stick you on a scumteam with Kraska, not DP, but even then RC's associatives with Kraska are ten times worse.

[Lycanfire]

But really, if it wasn't for DrPepper's attitude I'd prefer to lynch Kraska. Maybe I'm super salty over 1717 but my gut wants it badly. RC is either feels threatened that I am willing to contest town leadership from him or he's paranoid because he's never seen a scum game from me. That isn't helping me read him, because if he's town he won't work with me.

[Lycanfire]

No, but I townread both. Foe made a post where he found most of my DP notes posts and a few more (I didn't dislike them) but he was presenting the same arg I had in my notes against him. He was obvtown to me, that's why I said the Aishuu wagon was bad. House was unclear up until he gambited you and later Kaori arriving. He was bleeding town at that point. He made an obv pr post at some point but I never saved it in my notes because I stopped deep analysis around Kaori's arrival and started speedreading.

[Lycanfire]

I definitely want to take a step back because we won't get that opportunity tomorrow.

[Lycanfire]

The only good argument for lynching DP now is a mercy kill for the replacement. If we accept a replacement we have to hear them out or we're wasting time.

[Lycanfire]

Really can't think of something worthwhile to say in reply. I picked at my ear a bit if you want a reaction.

[Lycanfire]

So you're going along with that? If you're going to lynch me case me immediately. 963 was a shitpost and when I flip town you're going to have nothing for it.

[Lycanfire]

Also, Fiddler L1ing is my lynch because you already aaid you would hammer.

[Lycanfire]

If anyone wants to vote me state your case and fucking do it. If you sheep RC and giga this game is over.

[Lycanfire]

VOTE: Kraska here's where you're looking tomorrow

[Lycanfire]

So did you find out what you wanted to know giga?

[Lycanfire]

It isn't flailing if I said if it wasn't for DP saying he would never consider anyone besides RC that I would vote you. The moment he threatened replacement and said he would game tunnel RC was the moment he couldn't be RC's partner, so I could obviously never accept him wanting to lynch RC. RC/your comments make me want to vote you again and I'm very happy with it. Deal with it, because I can.

[Lycanfire]

You should ask giga to sheep this, Kraska. Without a hammer reservation.

[Lycanfire]

The more you argue against DP and the less you argue against me, the more obvious it is that you just want me gone. Get this wagon going.

[Lycanfire]

argue for me in the context of trying to get someone lynched-just correcting that error because it doesn't read properly.

[Lycanfire]

Right, that's why you're trying to eliminate DP as a lynch candidate so RC and giga lead the fucking way on me.

[Lycanfire]

If I'm scum where's the risk? What's with the hesitation? I'm voting you without ever considering it.

[Lycanfire]

i'm going to sleep bye

[Lycanfire]

sure, your vote is on me but you're arguing against a DP lynch and not for mine.

[Lycanfire]

i'm fully aware of your vote that's why i want you to rev up this wagon if you're serious. which you're not. because "your head will be next" right?

[Lycanfire]

So now that you've done that go ask giga to sheep you

[Lycanfire]

You were supposed to ask giga not RC. Bad Kraska

Based giga

[Lycanfire]

Kaori was briefly wagoned day 1, mainly by House and giga. She started out by pressuring House. Her wagon burned out when Kaori revealed she was an alt of notscience by a mistake post. Then she posted her reads list, RC said this was TvT, and House dropped his pressure shortly after. Aishuu replaced Foe around this point and starting making bad posts, refused to claim or really work with the town and ended day with their lynch a few days before deadline. Kraska kept on the good ( ) fight on Kaori until hammering.

Racer/myself was wagoned day 1 after the DP/yourself wagon. Then again now. Nothing much of note due to the original wagon being more for convenience. People cased my predecessor's read list but my impression was that people just didn't like someone that wasn't pressuring (can't recall a post where he pressured anyone besides a potential giga/Harlii/Fiddler scumteam) and for being V/LA. People are wagoning me now by assuming I'm the scum partner of your slot and because I asked them to

Harlii/Fiddler was wagoned after the first Racer/myself wagon, but before the Kaori one. I thought this wagon was scummy because giga was sheeping House, racer was trying to tie Harlii and giga together for some reason, meanwhile your slot voted for pretty bad reasons. Another reason why I hated it was because RC added to the pressure by claiming Foe (a strong town read of mine) to be Harlii's partner which was beyond dumb. So, it looked like DP/RC wanted the lynch, with giga on there for some reason while racer was on it due to associatives (but associatives said it was either too obvious or not likely at all). House just wanted to see if he could get people to vote how he wanted and I'm legitimately surprised he let the Foe/Aishuu lynch go through because each time he did it, he would kill the wagon. Maybe it was deadline, or maybe he really wanted to see if Kraska would hammer.

[Lycanfire]

I suggest a reread because I don't like Kaori/DP.

[Lycanfire]

It isn't my problem if you don't like it

[Lycanfire]

It certainly isn't Jae's problem either because they should be reading the thread. They wanted perspective on the wagons so they received it.

[Lycanfire]

I have no intentions of getting lynched today because my flip does nothing to damn you. I asked Kraska to start a wagon for a specific reason that I'm unsure of it having been fulfilled, with the explict request that giga wouldn't be ready to hammer because that would spoil everything.

[Lycanfire]

Plus annoying Kraska and giga was a bonus

[Lycanfire]

That pair of posts make me want to re-evaluate my reads. I was open to after Kraska flips scum. Also, I'll case Kaori as town later this evening because you really don't seem to pick up on her town posts. You weren't the only one. That's why I can call the scum team so easily.

[Lycanfire]

Okay so I drank last night, got two hours sleep, and the hour I dedicated to making a post turned into 20 minutes and now I'm four minutes late for work. I saved what I have and will post in 7 hours. If Fiddler/RC want to hammer they should read the last three pages and figure out that giga is flip flopping like crazy and know that hammering is super scummy, esp. after JaeReed made a decent although dubious vote that caught giga and Kraska like fish on a lure.

[Lycanfire]

Town { Kaori, Fiddler JaeReed }
Lean Scum { RC }
Scum { giga, Kraska }

I'm going to skip over Kaori for now as I'll be casing that. Fiddler hasn't been committing himself in any direction at all, and Harlii was a lot the same. I don't know how I feel about this beyond that I think they are both new and neither had a compelling case to be put together with my scum reads. Of the three, only Kraska really defended Harlii. RC made what amounted to a shadow hammer on Harlii if scum intended by calling Foe as partner and voting him instead. Giga certainly didn't seem to mind pushing the Harlii wagon a bit. He's gotta be town, which is sort of sad in a way...

I can't read JaeReed. I really dislike their Kaori vote because first + last 5 pages will tell them absolutely zero ( ) about Kaori to begin with but I tried considering town intentions for this vote and lo and behold, giga and Kraska are lining up for hang Kaori immediately afterwards this obv dubious vote is placed. There could be scum motivations here too but their vote is pretty much the only thing I can read here, so while I think they've benefited town more than not with the vote, I think they're null. Going forward with my case I think they have to be town though.

RC-I cased him already, then recased him without DP as partner. Just go read all my posts about RC as my position on him doesn't make sense without all of it because of how day progressed. It doesn't make him obvscum, and I kind of liked seeing him stick to DP over me after previously proving he didn't mind switching. It proves that he isn't just going with the flow and that's why I wanted Kraska to get giga to vote me to confirm if RC was willing to stick to his "DP only" lynch. He undeniably has bad associatives with Kraska, and going with Kraska as scum theory puts him as a likely partner.

I wrote my case on Kraska already. If you want to see more, look at her latest vote (#1039-#1040) as well as our exchange in posts #979-1001 for full context. Giga will come after Kaori.

If I am confirmed town, who are scum?

If Kraska is confirmed town, who are scum?

If we're both town, who are scum?

1,3 would be my scumpool. 2 is more unclear, i would say jaereed/fiddler then prepare a good marinade for my socks because I would be eating them on video.

Kaori as Town:

1) Reads the same scumteam as me
2) Didn't scumread Harlii
3) Wasn't on the Aishuu wagon

these are trash reasons to scumread someone, sorry. if lycan is somehow not scum i really would like to discuss post-game why these are bad reasons to read someone as town

Nope they're fine reasons (to townread someone) or you would have brought it up sooner and debunked it by now. These points stand until you make an effort to make it otherwise.

Kaori started out pressuring House, which looked bad but at this point she was a newbie going off on the town appearing IC. When it was revealed it was notscience it did a lot for her because even though she said it wasn't based on meta, she did involve House's meta, then said either House or RC must be scum, but not on the same team and more rigorously meta cased RC. Considering the alternatives were pressuring Harlii or Foe which would have been obvious deflection Kaori showing independent thought regardless of how it would be received is pro-town.

Instead let's see what happened. Kaori cased House and drew attention to herself when both Harlii and Foe looked easy. Both were going full speed before Kaori starting wallcasing House from her first post onwards. Why? She suspected House/Racer or RC/Kraska, so by definition both these wagons were bad if she wanted to go with this. House/Racer were happy on the Harlii wagon, RC voted Foe while Kraska wanted to stay on her slot. There's nothing inconsistent here. #512 Kaori tries to clear Foe with his argument with DP that I mentioned lined up with my notes #808/948 (#332 was the post I had trouble finding because I wrote the vague note "#332 finally someone is pressuring that scumfucker DP" and it was in spoiler wall.)

Not being on the Foe/Aishuu lynch is massive-if I read Kraska as scum, I nearly certainly have to read Kaori as town. Kraska explicitly wanted a Kaori only lynch but hammered with plenty of time on the clock. My read on RC started rapidly going sour from here as while voting Foe wasn't awful his reason was, because half his reason was to vote Foe because of Harlii. Kraska wasn't interested in Harlii, but DP was, and added with the "BP must claim" scenario of day 1 I was feeling pretty good with RC as scum in either scenario, so Kaori was +++townie in my eyes twice over. I don't believe Kaori/DP which will bring me to

Giga as scum

Let's start with the flip-flop:

wait holy shit i'm sorry for waffling but Kaori is town

Hear me out:

Why would a scum Kaori want to expose a PR? Remember the crypticness I complained about earlier? Kaori wanted to know if the other players wanted to see if House was an obvious PR. There's literally no reason scum would want that.

UNVOTE: Kaori "Notty" Miyazono

I might go back to him if it's a green flip from Pepper. But js I want to hammer, hence no vote from me.

Fixed -IV

I agree that a Kaori/DP scumteam is incredibly stupid, their interactions really read SvT to me, mostly through gut.

I think I can live with a DP lynch first tbh

DP (if green flip) > Lycan > Kaori

DP (if red flip) > Lycan > Fiddler

I will gladly stuff my face in humble pie if this these are not winning lynch orders.

VOTE: Kaori Miyazono

rc's gotta hammer whoever we lynch i think

What was the impetus for this? Was the change as simple as viewing Kaori/DP unviable? But what happened to DP/myself in all this?! Where is DP/JaeReed on her radar?


Oh, I found it.

RC, thoughts on Kaori/Lycan as a team? Because if there's a roleblocker I think I have a case on Kaori as this game's. Assuming a Lycan/Kaori scumteam, of course.

If Kaori flips town, then DP can't be town imo.

Someone please raise your hand if this makes sense to you. If Kaori flips town the scumteam is within Kraska/RC/Giga 100%. DP has absolutely nothing to do with this.

So why is giga trying to find the roleblocker but still maintaining that DP can still be scum? Why did the moment JaeReed replace in did she change votes to Kaori? What happened to her lynch order?

My conclusion is that her gut is to buddy JaeReed because they're a wild-card. JaeReed doesn't want to find scum today, they want to find a roleblocker. Everything they look at will be through that lens. By declaring the same intent giga can frame Kaori as a roleblocker even though town!giga has

absolutely no reason to believe JaeReed

, and in fact spoke in confidence of their scum flip before replacement. Ignoring the fact that giga cannot believe JaeReed, which appears to be a neglected oversight, adding her vote on top of JaeReed isn't strange if she does this. Kraska has nothing to lose at this point because she is the only real alternative to Kaori assuming JaeReed and I lock our votes for the day. At the very least she doesn't seem to care at all about BPT or helping find a roleblocker. Might as well take a townie out with her.


Now to giga's ISO. She sheeped House for the entirety of day 1. She may claim otherwise, which is fine because she admitted to it day 1 and I trust day 1 giga a lot more than day 2 giga After House goes out of his way to clear giga, her vote on the Harlii wagon looks great no matter how you look at it. House having an extra vote drastically increased his threat and you saw how people started to react to him as he started more and more wagons. Giga's reaction to House esp. in how she played it cool when House tried throwing her out as a scumread to see who bites was perfect. The problem is that it was mostly spoiled, as House remarked. While it looked good on House it didn't look as good on giga. Reaction wise, yes, results wise, nada. Out of anyone, she and House had the highest interactions in the game with each other. Who really started this? It was giga, starting in post 11. Ctrl+f House and go to town. House would interact with her unprompted, but the interactions were always reciprocated.

IMO, #441 was a giant kneejerk reaction that troubled me. House says it's possible for Kaori to be town, though he doesn't drop pressure. Everyone else minus Kraska is a taken a back, but giga takes it a step further. I say kneejerk because giga isn't casing Kaori here.

Then, for Aishuu giga doesn't vote until House does, but seems to have already made up their mind (#515) after RC's case against Foe/Aishuu (#514) finally votes #520 and makes a contrived case that basically reads "I want to vote racer but i cbf". What are the chances that giga wanted to appear to sheep House, but decided to get off racer and go on Aishuu for points with RC instead, while not making it obvious?


In any case - Kraska is my lynch for today. If something is unclear let me know because I wrote the first part after passing out then continued the second part after coming home from work and waking up in the fetal position on my couch. Time for another 2 hours of sleep!

[Lycanfire]

also i was meaning to give more impressions of our replacements when i got back. nothing much new was posted so i'll leave this for awhile. thanks for replacing in. there's a lot to read so we're obviously all appreciative n stuff.

[Lycanfire]

I wish I could turn on my blinders and say that you're not all going to get fucked. Kaori slot is 100% town and on my flip you all better bother fucking reading Kaori/Kraska posts properly. How so many people could be so wrong so consistently only goes to show that you're sheeping your town reads. The problem is, between Kaori and I the other is getting NKed. And RC, for the record scum!Lycan wouldn't NK you so you were always going to make it to lylo.

Lynch Kraska tomorrow. Giga's heel turn was awful. RC's vote was a similar flop, but it's townier because he never went onto Kaori as an inbetween vote. It proves he believes myself/DP slot which makes him more consistent. But unless you can find a better partner than him for Kraska for day 4 he's still a possible lynch along with Giga.

[Lycanfire]

My biggest problem with the BPT claim was that he didn't have to claim. Once moderation had to get involved I eliminated RC/DP and DP scumteams never looked as good... RC/DP looked worse than RC/Kraska in my mind since it was mostly paranoia of a bus fueling a RC/DP scumteam in my mind. I did absolutely intend to vote RC in the end until they both threatened to get replaced since he was the safe lynch in RC/Kraska RC/DP scumteams.

but since regardless of alignment we've proven that DP couldn't handle this game, the abrupt claim becomes NAI to me.

[Lycanfire]

Not really sure what I can pick apart in my last moments. Dierfire's posts were fine beyond considering me as teammates for Kraska and RC. WHYYYY vote me then when they look much better together. Plus, apparently I'm so scummy that any one can be my partner... We'll see in day 3 just how scummy my posts were I suppose.

And no, this isn't some random distance post because I'm town and frustrated. I think it's pretty nai and he's made blunders like saying scum would 1 1 trade a BPT which seems like a noobtown thing to say.

#1059 was an excellent post, was hoping others would see through the bullshit of #1058 but i don't want this to be lost in day 3 so i'm going to point it out now.

i'll be on in 4 hours to answer any questions

[Lycanfire]

Why would Kraska sheep RC so willingly if I openly accused both?

What is the rush? Kraska was obv willing to vote DP.

Bad argument is bad.

Similarly, RC has every reason to say, "hey guys BPT is probably scum" and death tunnel the slot. On the flip he could at least say he was trying to scumhunt rather than go for Kaori which he could justify as lazy/bad. How this makes him a goon goes over my head. If scum!RC doesn't stick his neck out for anything, he'll end up guaranteed lynch much faster than a PR mislynch.

[Lycanfire]

Bringing this to mylo is bad. Finish this and I'll tell you my partner

[Lycanfire]

My partner was Jack Daniels all along

[Lycanfire]

But really I'm going to work so you have about 20 minutes to not bring this shit to mylo.

[Lycanfire]

hmm, it's still a lylo not mylo because we would be endgamed by day 4

[Lycanfire]

As tempting as it is to hammer myself i would like to lynch anyone but myself so the nk will practically be that

Im not saying ppl should withhold votes for a no lynch. Ive already said to hammer but im not about to do it yknow

[Lycanfire]

Afterall i havent mislynched on MS yet why start now?

[Lycanfire]

I mean you have 14 min of my lunch break to convince me

[Lycanfire]

Mm deadline already expired i wont get anything out of this.

Since jae or myself will die tomorrow from failed hammer ill flip myself. Not happy tho

VOTE: Lycan

I was the RB anyways just be sure to lynch Kraska, jerks

[Lycanfire]

AND THE CROWD GOES WILD!

[Lycanfire]

Fiddler makes the most sense as NK from anyone that thought Kaori/Dier was a viable day 3 lynch.

#677 rc votes kaori
#693 rc intends votes dp/kaori scumteam
#793 giga wants kaori lynched in lylo
#761 giga votes kaori
#894 rc 'tentatively willing' to vote kaori
#899 giga unvotes kaori
#901 giga puts kaori as scum behind dp and myself
#1032 jae votes kaori {shitvote}
#1038 giga votes kaori
#1039 kraska votes kaori
#1087 rc "lycan and dier could be town"
(numerous posts of fiddler scumreading kaori, irrelevant for nka but there were 3-4 posts of his i didn't record)

That ends NKA for me.

Now to break down what happened at the end of day 2. I wasn't sure if I was going to be able to lynch myself or not, but I was hoping to have someone encourage me to do it because I knew a no lynch would benefit scum. My problem was that I was at work for the entire morning after my earlier posts and didn't get my lunch break until 12:30 PST. If you think this is an act when I said to hammer when we had intent, you are scum or have unrealistic expectations of town. As far as I knew I was lynched and I'm not getting fired for your gotta catch em all game to find out otherwise.

I self voted anyways near the end of my break. The obvious consequence of no lynch was that we were going to hit lylo regardless so my lynch was a free one as I explained in post #1105-1106.

Giga he waited until time was up to post that. The timer expired before he posted. Go check

Bringing this to mylo is bad. Finish this and I'll tell you my partner

I told people to hammer me because I knew it would only help scum if I lived. Why should I self hammer and end day with 4 hours left and intent on me? I made it clear it was a free lynch and even made a tongue-in-cheek comment about a partner so however hammering wouldn't feel bad.

... Of course I subverted this by revealing my partner was Jack Daniels, my faithful assistant that has been helping me get through this game.

Also, I thought this was an interesting post that I didn't read properly the first few times around... There's something missing from it.

i mean can i just say that if there's no way RC's getting lynched (which I agree, I doubt DP, KM, Racer, and Fiddler can get a wagon together), then any sort of a push on RC is a waste of time and thus anti-town. If KM really thinks they have a convincing case then by all means go for it, but for now I think there are better ways to use our energy.

For example, if Racer were town, shouldn't he be prodded right now? It's been a pretty long time since he's last been prodded, so I'm thinking that maybe he had some activity in the scum PT that, you know, made sure he didn't get proddaed...

What I'm trying to say though is that while I'm totally cool with RC lynching DP and KM, I really want activity from Racer's slot because I think there's a good shot it's scum.

I intend to pursue Giga/Kraska today, but I want to hear RC's thoughts first.

[Lycanfire]

Dier,

If Jae is scum who is his partner from your pov?

[Lycanfire]

Well there's the obv problem where that if you believe I'm town and taking one of my previous posts into account I already said I wouldn't have killed you as scum. Not sure if you were trying to get a reaction from me on that but considering I already said that I don't think I can make you any more needlessly paranoid.

Giga: Previously you agreed with me that DP/Kaori was too obvious. Why is Jae/Dier an "oh-fuck-you-could-be-right" scumteam? At least, what was your thought at the time?

I'm feeling the lynch for a few reasons but I want to get past my doubts before going forward.

[Lycanfire]

No, not really. Between yourself, Kraska, and RC one of you has to be town, and of the there RC was the most town by the end of day 2, while the NK looked alright for him too (in Dier as town scenario I imagine they'd be NKed so someone could say "hey Lycan was right all along this looks REALLY good for him right now!"). So, seeing Fiddler NK makes me think scum might be afraid that I'd be able to talk myself out of a mislynch, so they would need a back up.This automatically reinforced my yourself/Kraska scumteam. However, RC brings up a good point that Dier scum automatically removes his own possible NK from the table which makes Fiddler a weird NK. Instead of voting Kaori after his DP tunnel, RC voted me then DP slot again which means he was never concerned about this from the beginning making Fiddler a useless NK for RC scum. If RC is town reading both you and Kraska, my theory is probably wrong, and I'm more likely to sheep either you or RC.

Basically: no, kind of, it's complicated. I'd love to see these wonderful town tells Kraska apparently seems to breathe so I could get on with the game. Whenever I read her ISO I start snapping invisible rope. She's the worst of the three. RC is associatives. You dropped the ball at the end of day 2. Twilight was NAI from you while I thought Kraska was already preparing my mislynch for the next day. Nobody really offered much besides Jae who's first instinct was that I was trolling... Well, I did try to make it obvious by parroting House's great words after the last mislynch. He seemed pretty sure I was town but I haven't seen him hard town read me.

[Lycanfire]

I don't like your complete lack of suspicion of myself. I still have suspicion of you. What's going on? Your behavior isn't consistent.

Kraska: how do you feel about giga's behavior and how much does it deviate from your own feelings?

[Lycanfire]

I might as well fire this one to Jae while we wait on Dier.

Who would Dier's scum partner be from your pov?

[Lycanfire]

If we're going forward with Jae's lynch I'm only doing it if i can stop scumreading everyone besides RC and to lesser extent Dier. My problem is that giga's posting looks bad on RC but Kraska's post should point me in one definitive direction on that.

[Lycanfire]

But mostly bad on herself. If it were any more consistent I wouldn't be super paranoid rn. Will explain exactly what bugs me when I'm satisfied.

[Lycanfire]

town { rc }
townlean { dier }
null { jae }
scum { kraska, giga }

so, little improvement from yesterday beyond the fact i don't feel like i'm going solo. i still like the slot and only dislike that one post from dier where he was exhaustively considering scumteams with me in them. i've been trying to see how long he would disappear for before dropping this but he logged in without posting despite getting a t-ball level question from me he could have answered. jae made a really good post calling out giga near the end of day 2 but 1146/1148 were bad.

so basically i'm sheeping rc if i go along with jae that's why i'm trying to clarify these reads.

[Lycanfire]

are you claiming RB too?!

[Lycanfire]

It would be awfully hard to lynch Jae if the rb flips

[Lycanfire]

it's like you want me to vote jae and leave

[Lycanfire]

i think taking it seriously was a mistake. i didn't like the timing of the suggestion with #1138 on my mind. seemed like a rush to bring it up while the timing seemed good, even though it wouldn't get any less valid through the day

[Lycanfire]

#1171 I said I'd explain. My problem with giga's behavior was that she went from top scumreading me to following Kraska's suggestion of myself/RC. Then RC drops intent to town case me and does nka while she does a 180 and I suddenly read zero friction in her posts directed towards me. It was an unhealthy amount of trust making me suspicious of her motives.

Kraska's behavior is consistent

[Lycanfire]

jokes on you i would drink anyway

[Lycanfire]

plus it's sort of relevant to the draft post i have going but i'm also an infp with an enneagrammatic 4w5 personality type. i'm used to it

[Lycanfire]

yes. i don't have a strong wing to my 4 but when i was younger i think my 5 was more dominant, or more dominant than my 4.

[Lycanfire]

@giga

I completely forgot NL was an option until you brought it up, actually. Notice how I went from saying we would be in mylo today to lylo yesterday if we no lynched day 2. That's because in my mind we would have to lynch for sure in day 3. Sort of a brain fail but I was only going through numbers to calculate whether my own lynch was free or not. When you brought it up, I did think an elimination could help solve the game, but I also have egotistic tendencies and equally thought the game could be solved today while avoiding any problems related to a day 3 no lynch. If anything I found your suggestion scummy because you brought it up so early in day so I guess I'm happy it was a test?

I think Giga is town. If you and Kraska want to make an RC team that isn't RC/myself, I'll consider it. And your fears of being lynched in a day 4 lylo are zero giga. I wouldn't vote you as a scumteam with Dier in a Jae lynch and I would have voted Jae over you in Dier as scum scenario.

When I asked Dier and Jae the same question but in reverse I was asking with one answer in mind. If they were town the ONLY answer I would accept was myself as teammates for them. I told myself their answers should be obvious and resolved myself not to give them much credit for saying it, but I was interested in what I thought was a slight chance one of them may say someone other than myself. Answers... #1218/Jae "I don't think Dier is scum" / (exhaustively plays PoE) "I townread everyone". If he townread me for what I did at the end of day 2 then why did he vote me anyway? Because I said it was really bad if we no lynched? After all I already supposedly hammered myself. What's with the unnecessary vote? Simply, Jae answered wrongly. Dier/#no didn't answer instead says they're "still reading" but seems sure enough to vote no lynch. It's such an easy question that I'm completely baffled right now. If they want to say Jae/myself Dier/myself and have reservations about it they can say that, but the only problem with saying something like this is that they need to immediately come up with a different scumteam to push. If the pressure to perform is too great is it because they never had incentive to solve the game?

I really dislike Jae's townreads of everyone and especially RC. I've been trying to hold back on Jae until I clarified the game as the longer I hold suspicion on Kraska/giga, the higher the chance is that scum would try to court me. Eliminating giga ends this so I might as well say that Jae's behavior is very consistent with how BlankFace behaved in 1717. RC knows what went on in that game, but for everyone else the tl;dr is that I tried to wagon both scum in the first day. I dropped suspicion of mafiaso #1 (IV) when mafiaso #2 (pants) got replaced (by Snoe) and who immediately hard town read me in their first or second post without being able to set anything up with their partner. #1 immediately tried to bus #2. #2 was replaced again this time by BlankFace who continued to hard town read me meanwhile I was the second largest proponent of #2's lynch behind #1. #1 was trying to hard to sell #2/myself scumteam no matter how hard I tried to get #2 lynched. The difference between BlankFace and Jae is that BlankFace had a playable position (mafia won, after all) while scum!Jae is pretty screwed. Town reading everyone especially RC(?!) seems too diplomatic esp. when it conflicts with my own feelings too radically. Jae isn't scumhunting and it bothers me. Motive makes me feel like it's a set up to give the least amount of info for day 4 because there's no reason for town to do this. And no, suggesting RC/giga doesn't count as scumhunting because I hate that team, not like he made an argument for it he spoke of previous unspoken suspicion.

In his clarifications (or casing Kaori as town, whatever you'd like to call it) he says that assuming 1 of House/RC as scum wasn't unreasonable, but they're neglecting that Kaori said that for a reason, and it was because she was going with House/racer RC/Kraska scumteams. She said that because she couldn't put them on teams together. So why townread RC when I feel like Kaori is supposed to be a more primary townread to him? If Kaori was giving town vibes then she was doing it for a reason, thought RC was scummy for a reason, reasons that Jae does not care about if he wants to townread both, which creates conflict in his reads. I'll say this as a hypocrite, RC didn't seem town until the NK. Scum!RC didn't need a Fiddler NK, any that would incriminate me would be good. Kaori/Dier would have been the best, because Fiddler explicitly scumread me. Kraska/giga/Fiddler could have wagoned me while rc could have done anything during day until we reached that point in order to hammer for free win. Jae isn't taking this angle to justify both.

Jae failed to hammer, and when I was working with giga/Kraska scumteams I said Jae had to be town in this set up of my reads day 2. That's why I mentioned that this was looking bad for Jae, attempted self hammer and told you all to lynch Kraska so we would supposedly not auto lose to a day 3 wagon. If I think giga and rc are town, I have no reason to assume the failed lynch yesterday was innocuous based on who could be left as scum.

I'm also puzzled because I feel like one of the most suspicious posters of the day. Just so we're clear everyone understands that I've scumread everyone in some way today, right? That's really bad in lylo, but neither town or scum have called me on it today. Passivity from scum makes me think they're scared of pushing my lynch. The only person expressing intent on me is Kraska but she isn't going for low hanging fruit like this which is making me consider passive scum.

#1231 I already mentioned that I don't like NL and this is super passive. Dier isn't saying how a PoE NK could help him at all.

#1243 I thought DP's behavior was NAI at best as I said yesterday but it was helpful in removing the possibility of DP/RC and consequently, a lot of paranoia I had in this game.


---

ok jae is posting again

It's true that giga unvoted and voted Dier making the quicklynch theory pointless but asking for a no lynch in general at this point in the game is the same as asking for your lynch, Jae. It was already somewhat established by RC that a no lynch wasn't going to happen.

[Lycanfire]

I wouldn't vote you as a scumteam with

Dier

Jae

in a Jae lynch and I would have voted Jae over you in Dier as scum scenario.

ebwop

[Lycanfire]

I'll consider it only if Kraska thinks I'm not being led around by yourself/rc. That would be embarrassing.

There's no reason for me to rush so long as I know I can trust one of you. Either we all agree or I agree with one person the most.

[Lycanfire]

Last I saw she was going with yourself/me, so it's perfectly fine to ask her about yourself/giga.

[Lycanfire]

You don't have any other explanation for Kraska's behavior other than that she thinks you're town?

[Lycanfire]

there's a hint in your own post

[Lycanfire]

no the point is that she wants to avoid your speedlynch regardless of alignments which has the motive of finding a partner. she doesn't actually have to believe that you're town. so if you're townreading her why do you not care about this?

[Lycanfire]

because regardless of your alignment asking to be speedlynched here is disrespectful to kraska.

if you're scum, you're spitting on her read, putting your head in the sand and begging for day 4 while hoping the least amount of productive day happens.

if you're town you're throwing away the one person you can work with.

but in either case you're killing your chances of winning. did you really think kraska had no motive beyond thinking DP's slot MUST be town?

[Lycanfire]

i'm on and the game isn't over what gives

[Lycanfire]

you said if the scumteam isn't voting you to vote you and not to drag it out. how else am i supposed to interpret it beyond you giving up and asking town to hammer?

[Lycanfire]

if you're town and know scum is voting you, then what team are you going with?

[Lycanfire]

let's PoE this

dier/giga

dier/lycan x

dier/jae

dier/kraska x

dier/rc

giga/lycan *

- put me to L-1 with Fiddler scumreading me
giga/jae
giga/kraska
giga/rc
lycan/jae

lycan/kraska x

lycan/rc
jae/kraska

jae/rc *

- would have gotten his partner force replaced
kraska/rc

x

- impossible team

*

- improbable team

did i get them all?

promote or bump teams if you want.

[Lycanfire]

Dier,

are you still sticking with no lynch elimination?

there's 15 teams, and we just eliminated 3. for me, i have 4/12 scum teams i can eliminate. that leaves 8 valid ones. that's based on knowing that i'm town and due to DP/RC in day 2. despite losing 2 teams i could auto elim due to being a part of 2 impossible teams, i still feel like i have enough for a lynch today. someone like giga or rc could eliminate at least 5/12 scumteams, and up to 1 more each depending on how they feel about what i wrote above. that means, statistically if they were to assign numbers to each team and roll dice, they would be 50% correct. that's ignoring tells which could eliminate more teams or influence them to another.

if you aren't no lynching any more who do you want to hang?

[Lycanfire]

well, 50% correct in lynching scum is the best kind of correct, i suppose.

[Lycanfire]

ever read your own posts and wonder what the fuck that person is talking about?

[Lycanfire]

Well i wasnt going to vote Jae even though it is where my vote was going to go. It is safe to vote Jae rn but I was trying to work with Kraska because Im still assuming she has more intentions than what she is posting and I felt like placing my vote might ruin it.

[Lycanfire]

Also to be qhed doesnt one of you or rc have to be scum?

[Lycanfire]

This feels like day is being rushed and im busy gulping a large coffee on my break I'll come back to this in two and a half hours

[Lycanfire]

I think he's trying to eliminate you and himself as partners as the both of you could have qhed myself.

Like I said I can't be qhed without yourself or rc switching votes... If you're worried for me then you think rc is scum no?

As for the working with Kraska part I thought she was going hard on me to see who would sheep it. That's why I asked him again if he wanted a no lynch with our new info. I think sticking with it is pretty bad as commiting his vote somewhere would have given us more information. I think it's lazy.

[Lycanfire]

Meanwhile I don't like how you (giga) want me to put Jae to L-1. If Jae or myself hit L-1 do you and Kraska intend to hammer for the win?

[Lycanfire]

for the record giga, rc, dier and myself are all online right now so rc/giga can't hammer me. rc/dier cannot hammer me. giga/dier was supposedly eliminated a few posts up. dier/myself was already cleared last night.

[Lycanfire]

yeah i know rc but i ask questions i should already have answers to

[Lycanfire]

Good! I'm now guaranteed to be either Town or Mafia with JaeReed.

since when have you and kraska been online together?

[Lycanfire]

i feel the same way giga, but he was speaking in definite terms and i didn't like that.

[Lycanfire]

we eliminated dier/rc and dier/myself as teams, so if kraska believes rc/myself is the team, she will never move her vote. not for jae and not for dier.

my sentiments are that jae/dier is the scumteam, but i know it's useless to vote if kraska isn't on board.

[Lycanfire]

Am I being too stubborn? I wanted any post from Kraska and I would have L-1ed but it's been almost two days. This is too strange.

[Lycanfire]

Yeah I believe that. Besides if Kraska is scum, I think her partner would be RC and not you giga. She brought up RC/myself rather than you.

In this case I don't really mind giving her the hammer unless you want to go to day 4 by no lynch. It would stroke my ego, but I don't want to decide the potential loss.

Basically we aren't going anywhere without your vote, Kraska's, and my own and since I think you're the towniest of the bunch rn I'll let you speak for Jae and Dier assuming the worst (bc in best they are scum).

[Lycanfire]

no i've never townread kraska

[Lycanfire]

I have to vote RC in a day 4 lylo giga, because Kraska refused to vote Jae before me. I was willing to vote Jae only because I knew 1 out of yourself, Kraska, and rc had to be town and the NK looked good for RC. The moment you started making sense again was the moment I was willing to work with Kraska, but she's continually failed to even though I tried to read past her posts by assuming things like her refusing a Jae lynch to encourage Dier to vote. Jae hasn't done themselves any favors, but they make a point by saying that if they're town they has 1 scum on him.

This has to be Kraska/RC or RC/Jae. Also, you are the most obvious NK for any scumteam. If Jae and Dier are town, they will definitely vote with me with yourself/me eliminated.

If you're absolutely certain Jae is scum, I'll vote and open us up to the hammer. Otherwise we're forced into a PoE no lynch. The consequences of a no lynch will confirm the teams have to be RC/Kraska, Jae/Dier and RC/Jae in that order of likelihood.

Or you can bring me to L-1 today and we will certainly lose to any of these teams immediately. I'll hand you the gun and chose the endgame.

[Lycanfire]

Jae hasn't done themselves any favors, but they make a point by saying that if they're town they have 1 scum on him.

ebwop

[Lycanfire]

No benefit. Qh on town is mafia win. RC/Dier was eliminated because they could have hammered me when they were both online yesterday. Going with Jae as town theory and votes to lynch, in addition to teams already eliminated means that if you were NKed, those three teams are the only possible ones remaining, excluding RC/myself (I assume Jae/Dier would be fine with his lynch in town and scum scenarios), but I've already mentioned that I would vote RC to hit between his two possible scumteams in Jae as town scenario. Placing to L-1 for the (now online Kraska) in 10 minutes.

[Lycanfire]

Never mind I'll let you case.

[Lycanfire]

Actually it doesn't matter because if you convince town Kraska to hammer we've killed scum. L-1 in ten minutes from this post unless you come up with anything in the mean time.

[Lycanfire]

Only threat to two person qh is an unvote as the vote to L-1 without any prep is super scummy and any town should immediately unvote before the hammer comes through.

[Lycanfire]

I still think RC/Dier is eliminated though.

[Lycanfire]

Want me to delay L-1? I think Kraska might be anoned because she's disappeared from userlist.

[Lycanfire]

I already said I would vote RC tomorrow in a lylo (assuming day 3 no lynch). That means him or me. I would have to shoot Dier, not Jae, and have Jae sheep me on Kraska when he explicitly town reads her. I didn't have to come up with this plan.

VOTE: JaeReed

L-1

[Lycanfire]

I'm town and if you're town Kraska is about to hammer you for the win.

[Lycanfire]

No, it means I'm going to trust Kraska.

[Lycanfire]

Isn't it obvious? If Kraska doesn't hammer and giga/rc, dier/rc have been eliminated... It's either rc/jae or jae/dier.

But, there's a reason why I ranked it last. It's possible but I think it's kind of dumb.

[Lycanfire]

Would you rather I vote Dier instead, lycan?

isn't this even worse

[Lycanfire]

Probably my best scum game

[Lycanfire]

Couldn't have asked for a more unhelpful partner

[Lycanfire]

You have no idea how many days I've been waiting to get to L-1 without any of you suspecting in order to unvote. No. Idea.

[Lycanfire]

Kraska/dier was already elim. Shoulda used my list.

[Lycanfire]

Which says that Kraska and I are elim because we could have already quickhammered and that Kraska, Jae, and myself are being retarded or you are.

[Lycanfire]

but then who was phone

[Lycanfire]

my god im being trolled none of you are paying attention to elim teams

[Lycanfire]

the scumteam was house/fiddler all along

[Lycanfire]

The quality of these posts are bad and you should feel bad.

[Lycanfire]

The great corpse of RC (murdered night 2) would have scumhunted us if we tried Jae speedlynch

[Lycanfire]

yeah im getting pretty annoyed by it

[Lycanfire]

Well... You could have sheeped me giga. When your old house gets killed it's natural to find a new one.

[Lycanfire]

Ha, that's awful.

[Lycanfire]

still not sure why i get scumread as town though

[Lycanfire]

Hm. Don't feel too bad about it I put on my blinders between RC's awful #1365 #1372 posts. Between 1372 and the hammer I had 50 minutes to unvote and chose not to.

[Lycanfire]

If I was lynched day 2 this could have turned out very differently.

[Lycanfire]

I understand why notscience (no longer going to call him Kaori) did what he did. His alt was exposed and didn't want to play any more, because the entire purpose of the alt was to play a different style and without meta. That's why I didn't think the disappearance was strange.

I felt like if I brought that up it would only sell people on a Kaori/myself scumteam though.

[Lycanfire]

Was just about to post that I was surprised that she promoted us as scumteam but voted me over you as I felt giga and jae would be tough sells as partners. Which would leave Dier and I would chainsaw so fucking hard if Kraska ever said Dier/myself.

If she voted you though, I might have picked up on an inconsistency and death tunneled. I was very paranoid.

[Lycanfire]

Good game. RC played really well. I didn't get the benefit of experiencing it in real time and had an infodump to get through but perhaps his pursuit of the BPT was to distract from anyone suspect Kraska hammering his wagon.

Interested in knowing how viable the scumteam thought night 2 nks of giga and dierfire were.

Giga played really well. I was tempted to compliment her day 2 when promoting her as a scumteam with Kraska because I honestly thought she was playing well as town or scum. I chose not to because she was making weirder and weirder posts and I wanted to keep her pissed off at me.

Jae could have pushed harder on RC, tried reading as things beyond town. Beyond that he explained his case well enough. Dier probably had the best idea with no lynch but I couldn't trust him because his day 3 posting wasn't like his day 2. Sorry.

I feel weird about Kraska. I never townread her but the HSP reveal removed some suspicions I had of her when she continued the death tunnel into day 3. If she couldn't go for Jae under any circumstances, going on me made a lot of sense. I should have known something was off esp. when she would remove to respond to me, but hard town reading giga and smashing the giga/kraska scumteam that started making more sense than rc/kraska hurt my willpower to stay on her in general. She picked the right townies to buddy.

Hope to see you all in other games.

[Lycanfire]

when she would refuse to respond to me

ebwop

[Lycanfire]

i just ignore rc when he attacks and ignores people strategically because i know it's just meta bullshit. i ignored him in my other game with him and he started going full meltdown mode when people were refusing to sheep him a second time around.