This is all a response to Smudger's post on me but I couldn't figure out how to quote it and put it all under a giant spoiler. But it's only a couple posts up so if you're confused to what I'm referring to I guess you'll have to go back and forth. Sorry
I don't really see the argument against me here. I'm a little confused to be honest. I do agree that I don't ask enough questions, and even more so at the beginning of the game, but that's more due to me being new and trying to learn how to play the game. I learn by listening, watching, and then joining in. I think this is fairly evident in my play throughout the game: I started off listening and mostly only watching as things went down unless addressed directly and only started actively participating about halfway through D2. You could say that's not very towny, but what can I say I was learning.
In terms of the previous times I was "under suspicion", I had made I think 2 or 3 posts by the time hiplop had said that and at the time he said a very similar thing about almost everyone. He never came back to me at all and even had me as town (and above you) in his readlist:
Spoiler: hiplop's readlist
In post 73, hiplop wrote:Reads right now for those viewers at home
Town
Witch
Kim
Noodles
AzoriiiousSenate
Null
Smudge
Belisarius
(Cmon SE's, get more active )
Scum
Bluebird
Some Random Mafia Player - Seriously, this is not a town mindset
And in terms of Azorius, c'mon even you can see I wasn't being suspicious. Without knowing he was the tracker (which even you didn't realize until later) he was acting the sketchiest he possibly could have. I get it, he was frustrated because he couldn't get people to believe something he knew to be true without claiming but it wasn't a "narrative" that his argument had no grounds. It literally had no grounds, we all agreed on that multiple times. I even said multiple times in my posts that I still had my suspicions about Bel, Azorius just needed to present a real argument.
So what's the argument here? Two times I was "under suspicion" (one of which was followed by that person calling me town, the other time I was only suspicious for being more active and saying what we were all saying slightly more) and the fact that I don't/didn't ask questions? And your first argument is that I'm scum because I'm too likeable? Sorry I just don't see it.
On top of that, just logically, look at what WH immediately responded with, if I was scum why wouldn't I have just killed Kim off ASAP? It would've been easy, no one suspected me and the three of us pretty much had a block. I hammer Kim than kill either you or WH during the night, then in the morning there would've been almost zero chance we wouldn't kill Bluebird and boom I've won. I know that's WIFOM (idk if I'm actually using that right) but the fact is, that's an easy and logical path that if I was scum I definitely would've followed through on. It would've been better to let Bluebird continue to lurk and Kim have no explanation. Even if worst came to worst and whoever was still alive thought I was scum, both you and WH would've looked worse for being so sure about Kim.
Moral of the story is I don't see it. 1) you're argument has no grounds besides you being suspicious about liking people and 2) if I was scum I could've had the easiest game and I didn't take it. If you have any other questions throw them my way.
In post 459, Smudger wrote:I'm not willing to vote Bluebird today, I want to wait until I get answers from everyone on my question about MCN. I will though be mightily pissed if Bluebird continues to lurk and Kim, you need to get back in here and play thank you.
WH you seem to be a little perplexed?
Perplexed? Maybe a little bit, yes. I don't see any good reason Bluebird should, I won't say necessarily lynched, but dismissed as potential scum. So far, Kim's reason didn't convince me much and MrCurlyNoodles' is even worse.
Do you really believe she's probably not scum, and that's why you're not voting her, or it's just that other candidates are better?
p-edit: I've just received your post on MrCurlyNoodles, will read and comment on it later.
I'm aware my reason not to vote Bluebird is BS. An important aspect that I seem to have left out is the fact that, despite the fact that she's very low down on my scum scale, she's also very low on my town scale. Which seems contradictory, but in my head it's not. I have a scale in my head on the likelihood someone is town and scum, but they're two separate scales not a sliding one. For example you're 20something% (wherever I put you earlier) on my scum scale, but still a 60% on my town scale. You used to be a 100% which is why i say multiple times that my trust has gone down, but I still trust you leagues ahead of Bluebird. The fact is I don't want to lynch her because lurking scum seems lazy to me and besides lurking I haven't seen much (though there's not much to see things in). It's more of just an inner feeling of not wanting the last scum in my first game to have been inactive all game. Which is dumb I aware. But until I get less suspicious of you and Kim I don't see a reason to look further into it.
Side note in terms of this:
In post 468, Witch_Hunter wrote:From a quick read of Smudger's 464 and MrCurlyNoodles ISO, preliminary impression is: maaaybe. If Noodles is not a bubbly teenager*, he sure puts on a very convincing act. Other folks still look more scummy.
* If you're not a teenager, sorry about that, it's just how I picture you. Then again, I do picture Smudger as his De Niro avatar...
I'm 18 so still a teenager and I figured bubbly is the best way to be friendly and learn how to play/get people to teach me how to play/use parts of the site. So this is pretty accurate.
I'm thinking he's town right now, based on the last few pages. It's more process of elimination-type reasoning - Witch Hunter is a bit suspicious. I was looking back, and I saw in Belisarius's last post, he said this:
Scumteam stands as Kim and Bluebird. Curly's play today is town.
I'm worried about the fact WH wasn't mentioned at all, really. The comment about Curly could probably be a red herring, and I'm not sure scum would've bussed.
- On my not being mentioned: see posts 408 and 411, where Kim and I talked about this from a different angle. My take is, he didn't mention Smudger or me because his strategy on Day 2 was buddying up to us. What do you think?
- Are you really saying Kim and you are off the hook because that would be bussing, yet you suspect me of bussing Belisarius? What I am missing here?
- Also, your take on Kim would be appreciated.
/Off topic, feel free to ignore, but I'm curious: What is it you do in RL that makes you so busy the rest of us look like hobos living in a library, in front of the computer all day?
1. I didn't think of that. But it would seem that he would say you two were town if he was still trying to buddy, if not throw around more WIFOM. I realize that is a horrible post to interpret, but it's an important one, nevertheless. (Also, I completely forgot about Smudger because I wasn't looking for him.)
2. I'm not saying that Kim and I are off the hook, just that I think it would be unlikely Belisarius would bus. Please direct me to where I said you were bussing him.
3. I've got a null-town reading on Kim. He seems generally agreeable, which I suppose could go both ways. I haven't noticed anything out of the ordinary. Has anything caught your eye?
4. School. Because of this, it's the time of year I probably shouldn't have chosen to play at, with projects and whatnot. I have an opening around noon, but I also have a bad prediction rate of the time it takes me to post. Then I have now, and possibly later in the evening. Weekends are better usually, but projects, yeah... Also, long phoneposts are a pain.
In the beginning the Universe was created. This has made a lot of people very angry and is widely regarded as a bad move.
-The Restaurant at the End of the Universe
In post 476, MrCurlyNoodles wrote:
I'm aware my reason not to vote Bluebird is BS. An important aspect that I seem to have left out is the fact that, despite the fact that she's very low down on my scum scale, she's also very low on my town scale. Which seems contradictory, but in my head it's not. I have a scale in my head on the likelihood someone is town and scum, but they're two separate scales not a sliding one. For example you're 20something% (wherever I put you earlier) on my scum scale, but still a 60% on my town scale. You used to be a 100% which is why i say multiple times that my trust has gone down, but I still trust you leagues ahead of Bluebird. The fact is I don't want to lynch her because lurking scum seems lazy to me and besides lurking I haven't seen much (though there's not much to see things in). It's more of just an inner feeling of not wanting the last scum in my first game to have been inactive all game. Which is dumb I aware. But until I get less suspicious of you and Kim I don't see a reason to look further into it.
It seems everyone's scumdar here follows a different standard... your scales, my town-o-meter, Kim's percentages...
Let me put my thoughts this way: this is Day 3, don't you think by now absence - or near absence - of towniness is an important clue? It's precisely because losing to lurker scum would be extremely annoying that I'm asking you all to at least consider the possibility she's using the oldest trick in the scum book and we're letting her get away with it.
- On my not being mentioned: see posts 408 and 411, where Kim and I talked about this from a different angle. My take is, he didn't mention Smudger or me because his strategy on Day 2 was buddying up to us. What do you think?
1. I didn't think of that. But it would seem that he would say you two were town if he was still trying to buddy, if not throw around more WIFOM. I realize that is a horrible post to interpret, but it's an important one, nevertheless. (Also, I completely forgot about Smudger because I wasn't looking for him.)
He said it at least twice, earlier that day (posts 241 and 267).
That said, his last post is probably one of those things that will make complete sense in retrospect, but right now are a mess.
- Are you really saying Kim and you are off the hook because that would be bussing, yet you suspect me of bussing Belisarius? What I am missing here?
2. I'm not saying that Kim and I are off the hook, just that I think it would be unlikely Belisarius would bus. Please direct me to where I said you were bussing him.
You didn't say it outright, but you said I'm suspicious. And since I joined the Belisarius wagon, that means I'd have bussed him if I were scum.
3. I've got a null-town reading on Kim. He seems generally agreeable, which I suppose could go both ways. I haven't noticed anything out of the ordinary. Has anything caught your eye?
Smudger has written quite the interesting case against him, post 369.
Do you still think that's a good case?
(To spare you the work of looking for my opinion - yes, I think it's good, and the only reason I'm not voting him right now is because I'm not certain about you, either.)
/Off topic, feel free to ignore, but I'm curious: What is it you do in RL that makes you so busy the rest of us look like hobos living in a library, in front of the computer all day?
4. School. Because of this, it's the time of year I probably shouldn't have chosen to play at, with projects and whatnot. I have an opening around noon, but I also have a bad prediction rate of the time it takes me to post. Then I have now, and possibly later in the evening. Weekends are better usually, but projects, yeah... Also, long phoneposts are a pain.
/Unexpectedly ontopic now: You are... a teenager? A high schooler? You said something about school before, but I assumed you were, I don't know, a teacher or something like that. THIS is why nobody else is even considering voting for you, isn't it? I'll need a while to consider this.
At that time, yes. As my case falls apart, he's becoming more and more of one again.
Spoiler:
In post 402, Kim wrote:Witch_Hunter didn't seem to share your view that Bel's post threw everyone else off of me. His next post had a p-edit directed at Bel asking him to explain his desire to lynch me. Bel's next post had him right back on my wagon:
In post 441, Smudger wrote:Yes WH questioned Bel, and Bel made a statement regarding his potential vote on you straight after, as he continually did up until he was lynched. But my statement is that the post by Bel "was designed to throw us off of the weak case he had on you". The way it was perceived by those in the game at the time it was posted is another matter, the fact someone questioned him, well it was going to happen, he then responded as he did. What if he had just changed his POV on being questioned, it would have generated more questions would it not? why would he continually point to you as scum, Ok you maybe town but you could also equally be scum, my case surrounds the premise that the collection of points I highlighted leads me to believe I have scum, you.
You see my case is the general strategy being employed, be it direct or indirect by Bel. In my mind he was attempting to discard you as he did not want too much attention on his buddy, But he also wanted to hide you should he get lynched, which is what happened, that's the point I am trying to make.
I see what you're saying now. Your point is taken. (And I really should have seen it before.)
Spoiler:
In post 402, Kim wrote:(I moved the answer up here.) As a whole, I obviously can't say why Bel posted what he did. I will say that it doesn't fit the distancing I've seen in my other newbie games.
In post 441, Smudger wrote:That post has irked me all game. its the strangest thing I have seen to date in a game of Mafia, and the more I ponder it the more I return to Occam's Razor, remember that Bel himself said as much. The Simplest answer must be the truth, and to me the simplest answer is, because he shared day-talk with you, ergo you are scum.
I'll counter your Occam's Razor with an H.L. Mencken paraphrase: "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong." More seriously, my first reaction to Bel's post was to take him seriously -- I might be slightly misremembering, but I recall other people have seeing my posts as overly calculated and/or fake. I almost directly replied to Bel suggesting that was why -- going as far as to type it out -- because I was getting tired of hearing it, but I deleted it before posting.
Knowing that Bel is scum and I'm town, though, my best guess is that if he wasn't being honest, he was he was just saying that to instill fear, uncertainty, and doubt (TM by Microsoft) in the townies.
Spoiler:
In post 402, Kim wrote:You did ask me. I had already answered in post 189, as you quote below. Is there some better way for me to answer if Player X directly asks me if I think Player Y is scum, assuming that I don't think Y is scum?
In post 441, Smudger wrote:I think you miss my point here. Your voting history is pretty patchy to say the least, you voted as I have highlighted and yet its more to do with your POV on SRMP. this is where I see an issue. As I stated I feel your motives at the time for that post was to acquire Town-cred based off the back of not voting for a player you knew was town. You may point at the fact that others were not voting for him and that BlueBird had made a similar statement, but it goes back to the collective facts not this fact in isolation.
If I had voted for SRMP, I'm guessing that would also be included in your collection of facts. My not voting for SRMP isn't exculpatory, but it's not evidence, either.
Spoiler:
In post 402, Kim wrote:1) I didn't hammer Bel. That was WH.
2) I didn't question you because I was able to figure out that you thought AS had a good reason for voting for Bel. (I didn't think about exactly what your reason was, though. That could have saved me all this typing.)
In post 441, Smudger wrote:yes you are right and I retract the comment concerning the hammer, but that does not take away from my thoughts the fact that you did not even question me, you just went ahead and did it. But as a footnote I see your explanation regarding why and I can see some merit in it. however, I have looked at the other games you have been in. In one of them you hammered for the lose. But before you hammered you were making sure that it was the right choice you were asking questions and interacting with the other players, you even asked for time to consider the move. You were town in that game and a lot more involved than you have been here, your questions are more indepth and seem to be well thought out. I don't get the same feel here, it may wel be confirmation bias, but not with everything else I have considered.
I didn't question you because WH asked you while I was asleep. Your answer to WH and a little bit of thought on my end was enough to figure out what you meant. I saw that behavior from the cop in our open game, as I've mentioned.
It's fair to say I haven't worked as hard with this game compared with my other newbie games. Some of that has to do with other distractions (e.g., all the video games I got for Christmas/my birthday); some of that's from trying to make the game more fun for me; some of that's a defeatist "I tried so hard and didn't help my side; quite possibly, I hurt it. Why not try less?"
Spoiler:
In post 403, Kim wrote:He might still think I was suspicious for what I did -- he never replied to my second response -- but he did also say I'm behind you and WH in his lynch list in 337.
In post 441, Smudger wrote:that wasn't his lynch list, thats was his soft claim, that made me lynch Bel......
Wouldn't AS have been suspicious of you and WH regardless of why he thought Bel was scum? I'd say that the "soft" claim (or at least the post that completed the puzzle for me) was 336, "Let me make something very clear guys. The lynch IS going to be Bel today."
he's shown that he's smart enough to realize that Bel and his scumbuddy would have already had their great farewell discussion in daytalk (or maybe a soliloquy from Bel, depending on if the other person was around at the time) before Bel claimed.
That early hammer deprived us of getting reactions from MCN and Blue. It was scum-motivated.
In post 441, Smudger wrote:you do realise you are parroting me? I said that
That was intentional. I wasn't exactly using your words against you, but if the argument's valid against me, it's valid for me.
Spoiler:
In post 408, Kim wrote:He really really wanted us to know that WH and Smudger were unimpeachably town. Why would he do that? I think Smudger's early support of what AS was doing practically clears him; that leaves WH
In post 441, Smudger wrote:this has merit with regard to WH, and yes I had considered the probability that WH is a very smart player and is pulling the wool over our eyes, if he is he has played extremely well and needs recognition for it. But I don't think so I don't seen anything that rings alarm bells. I see Bel trying to ensure that the two of the strongest town players stay off his scent. You must consider that at the time in the game he did not know which power roles were in town's possession, he just had an idea based on the scum roles he obviously knew. therefore he wanted to keep us sweet, and he did right up to AS starting the wagon on him and AS's claim.
You may be right; I may be crazy. That's really all that's left of my case against WH.
Spoiler:
In post 421, Kim wrote:How did you interpret the fact that I would neither confirm nor deny VT? Also, I've already said that a fake PR claim by scum toDay would be a guaranteed loss once the real PR counterclaims, regardless of whether the scum guess the role we actually have correctly.
In post 441, Smudger wrote:Yes, but it remains extant, you have confirmed you know the best course of action as scum in this type of game is not to CC if caught out but claim VT. I read between the lines, it was clear to me what you were saying in that post.
It's only clear to you because you're assuming I'm scum in the first place.
Spoiler:
In post 432, Kim wrote:WH said in 389 that Smudger's 353 was what convinced him to vote for Bel. WH also says that he reread AS and the latest posts. I guess it's possible that WH had other things to do that, along with the rereading, kept him from voting before he did, but WH posted something in this thread between 07:06 and 11:58 nine out of the 13 prior weekdays, including on both Mondays.
More the fact that I couldn't think of a reason for him to wait to vote for Bel until he would be the hammer. (I still can't at this instant, but I'm still groggy from my unplanned nap.)
So, please walk me through this: what scum motivation would I have to hammer Belisarius?
1) To get towncred by busing him. Smudger used this against me in his case: "His argument may well be that he hammered Bel, so? thats called a bus and he did it to attempt to ensure his survival today."
2) Like I said earlier, stating intent to hammer could also buy time for last-minute strategy by dissuading MCN and Blue from quickhammering to end the day. That was the only reason I could think of for you to wait for Bel to reach L-1 before stating intent to hammer; so, why did you wait?
Do MrCurlyNoodles and Bluebird really strike you as the sort of players prone to quickhammering an unclaimed L-1?
Why did I wait? Because, as I've been saying for a while (see below), I intended to hammer him after I figured out what was happening. And I could hardly do it if I voted him before he was at L-1.
Of course you did. I remember when I used to be smart.
In post 475, MrCurlyNoodles wrote:Moral of the story is I don't see it. 1) you're argument has no grounds besides you being suspicious about liking people and 2) if I was scum I could've had the easiest game and I didn't take it. If you have any other questions throw them my way.
thank you, I wanted to gauge reactions to my thoughts so I could either include or secluded you from them, your response seems balanced and I accept it, plus of course this good point here:
In post 471, Witch_Hunter wrote:Counterargument about Noodles: if he's scum, why didn't he lynch Kim earlier when he had the chance?
very good catch, missed that...unless scum was already there of course
[/quote]
"There is nothing more ironic or contradictory than life itself"... R.D.
In post 471, Witch_Hunter wrote:Counterargument about Noodles: if he's scum, why didn't he lynch Kim earlier when he had the chance?
very good catch, missed that...unless scum was already there of course
Perhaps, like he somewhat implied in 413, he thought it'd look scummy to hammer me without hearing from Blue first. By the time she replied, he couldn't get back online to hammer (his next post was 431, where he apologized for being MIA) until Smudger unvoted me. MCN's next post had a vote for me (439) because "we need[ed] to get the ball rolling again" -- some 11+ days before the deadline.
Hey Kim. I'm about to start drinking as I am out with friends. So before I do Start I will say my gut and head tell me it's you. I am not changing my vote if I'm wrong then my head then says Blue, my gut then says MCN... And that little voice that sometimes haunts me keeps whispering it could be WH.... So that's where I am at..., you are scum my case is good. I will not be posting again until my A M which is in about 12 hours
"There is nothing more ironic or contradictory than life itself"... R.D.
On Bluebird - one thing that intrigued me is that, at times, she was paying enough attention to the game to look at people's wikis (post 199, that's her Smudger vote), and at other times she seemed to miss relevant and easy to spot things (post 288, for instance). It looked like scum lurking and doing a bad job of appearing busy in RL to cover for the lack of activity here.
But a busy teenager - that's actually somewhat plausible, at least from my experience with teenagers who are really good at multitasking, but not always as good at hyperfocusing on one specific thing. It explains what is, from my POV, an oddly irregular attention span. Her posts make more sense now, yes.
That doesn't mean she can't be scum, and inactivity's still an anti-town behavior at the least. I still think it's a good lynch, but yes, lynching the lurker may not be the
On Kim, I have to read his back and forth with Smudger once more just to be sure. That means:
I'm not hammering for the next 12 hours, at least. Folks, please share your thoughts now. If there's something that needs more time to be discussed, just ask to stay the hammer, we still have time. Bluebird, consider whether you want to hammer in case I change my mind in the meantime. MrCurlyNoodles, you still have time to unvote.
I don't intend to hammer until I've decided that Kim's the best vote. Now that I've read the case against him, I think I'm going to consider it and wait for what everyone else says. He does seem the most reasonable vote, though.
In the beginning the Universe was created. This has made a lot of people very angry and is widely regarded as a bad move.
-The Restaurant at the End of the Universe
I reread MCN and Blue, but I didn't come up with anything of note that hasn't been said already.
I'm at a loss right now. From where I sit, half of Smudger's case is Bel tunneling me -- and pretty much anything scum does qualifies as WIFOM. Most of the rest of the case is just confirmation bias. Assuming X and not reaching a contradiction is
not
evidence for X when assuming not-X also doesn't lead to a contradiction.
I'll keep reading and hoping I'll find something until I get hammered, I guess. In case that happens while I'm asleep:
Spoiler: Do not open until I'm hammered
I'll just say that WH's drifting into town territory for me. The more I read, the more everyone seems to bunch up. My current scum-to-town order is MCN, either WH or Blue (probably Blue, but it's close), then the other, then Smudger. Rounding off, let's say 1/3 MCN, 1/4 WH and Blue, 1/6 Smudge.
The little voice that haunts Smudger told me that Smudger is more likely to be scum than I've thought he was before. I made this argument against WH before, but it didn't occur to me to apply it to Smudger. If the scumteam picked up on AS's softclaim of a scum result on Bel, they could have had Smudger go ahead and vote for Bel since AS would have repeated the claim less and less subtly until even I would have picked up on it. Don't forget that Smudger would have been a very loud participant in two mislynches. However, there are also good reasons to think Smudger is town (duh). Just try to keep all the possibilities in mind.
Folks, this may be the game's defining moment. I'd really prefer having everyone's input first, even if it's a short "not changing vote. why didn't you hammer yet?".
Especially you, MrCurlyNoodles
, since your vote was arguably not that serious. If you're serious about it, please say so now. I have no way to know whether your silence means you're ok with this or you're busy and unaware of what's going on.
Let me propose a clearer deadline here, since the previous one was arguably vague:
I intend to hammer when 24 hours have passed since post 491, - to me, that's Feb 3rd, about 2:33 PM. Everyone has until then to speak their piece.
Sorry I was busy. Though my vote wasn't that serious, I feel this is the right vote so I'm not moving it. In terms of what you said earlier about my reasoning with Bluebird, you're correct. I could be letting her use the oldest trick in the book because of emotions. I'm recalibrating my position on her and will have to figure that out if there is a tomorrow and she's alive in it. But for today I believe Kim is the best vote. Hopefully I'm right
Alright then, thanks for the posts, Noodles and Smudger.
Just in case, my reads list hasn't changed very much today. If there's a tomorrow, obviously I'd have to at least consider whether one of my townreads could be the last scum - it's not impossible Noodles is both scum and a bubbly teenager, or Smudger is a very good scum player posing as a good town player. But right now, Occam's Razor says these aren't the most likely options.
)
and I figured bubbly is the best way to be friendly and learn how to play/get people to teach me how to play/use parts of the site. So this is pretty accurate.
THIS is why nobody else is even considering voting for you, isn't it? I'll need a while to consider this.
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