Mini 1715 - Z - Game over!

[Nachomamma8]

VOTE: Ciara24

[Nachomamma8]

That wasn't a random vote. I'm voting Ciara because I'm aware of my ability to read her well and I'm letting her know that I'm watching her and forming a read there is my highest priority at the moment.

[Nachomamma8]

How carefully did you read the spoilers?

Nacho = 1 post = 1 rule infraction.

@zakk, what counts as not random?

Can we not waste precious time talking about the rules?
If there are infractions, zakk can deal with them.
If you have questions about them, take them to PM.

As for now, if you have a vote that you can make with purpose, make it.
If you can't, start sheeping me.

[Nachomamma8]

Nachomamma8 has violated rule #5. This is a minor rule infraction.

Damn reminds me of demolition man.

Btw who knows how the 3 seashells work exactly?

No idea what you're talking about re: seashells.

[Nachomamma8]

As for now, if you have a vote that you can make with purpose, make it.
If you can't, start sheeping me.

No

Why not?

[Nachomamma8]

Btw I don't believe nacho, her vote probably was random. The reason given doesn't make sense for a vote. Looks like she's not being truthful

vote: nacho

P.edit - have you never seen demolition man?

P.edit again - I just explained

Oh look. You followed my suggestion.
I'm a guy, and you know this.

[Nachomamma8]

The reason given doesn't make sense for a vote. Looks like she's not being truthful

It's a common approach in games to focus first on reading people you're familiar with. I don't see any reason why you wouldn't believe my explanation unless you thought the only purpose of a vote was to express suspicion, which is something that would surprise me since I thought you were a much better player than that.

[Nachomamma8]

I honestly think you didn't read the spoilers (I know I hadn't yet) and instead of owning up to it came up with something else.

Proof that I did read the spoilers can be found by reading past games; in every game except for this one, I use bold tags to vote people instead of vote tags. I'm not sure that me lying about something like that would be alignment indicative, though.

[Nachomamma8]

I am liking Woody for town.

I agree that Woody reads town early.
It gives me warm fuzzies when you see what I see.

17 has an interesting attribute btw.

What interesting attribute, exactly?
What is your read of my early play?

[Nachomamma8]

And yes the point of a vote should be to pressure or express suspicion. There's other ways to communicate what you were trying to do without voting.

Sure, there are other ways to say what I was trying to say. Why can't I say it with a vote?

[Nachomamma8]

Damn I just saw I have to use vote tags. I play on my phone and can't be bothered to do extra work. I'm not sure how that's going to work out. I guess I'll only vote when I get to a pc

Vote tags are VOTE: name[ /v] without the space, which is not any more work than using bold tags instead.

[Nachomamma8]

Took a while to find some games, you have a few games where I guess you played with somebody. I.will say I lol'd at the game where you posted I am Groot all game

VOTE: unvote

It was a fun game!

But seriously never try to undersell yourself

First of all, if it was actually Woody's intention to undersell himself to cover up for mistakes down the road, do you really think he would have included the "

apparently

I'm not as good a player I think I am" bits? It seems to me like if he was trying to make himself look like a bumbling VI, he wouldn't include the parts about him thinking he's a good player.

Second of all, why do you think that scum would actually attempt a strategy like that? I don't really think that townies not being confident in their own play is all that uncommon, so it doesn't seem like that reliable of a scumtell to me, even if there's some reason that I'm not picking up on for scum to do it.

I'm kinda fascinated by this because you discussing your ability to read me well seems almost like a threat. We've only played two games together - both times I was town. I'm going to pretend you feel threatened by me being such a great player since forming a read on me is, after all, your highest priority.

I've seen your towngame twice. I think that if there's something off with your play, I'll be the first to pick up on it, and am the only player in the playerlist who actually posts a meta-threat to you. Forcing a hypothetical you!scum to react to me specifically makes your job harder and also, in some strange inexplicable way, makes me focus in heavier on you so that I can catch you early if you are scum.

I'd like to hear from the remaining players before I place a vote.

Why? Who would you vote here if you didn't arbitrarily decide to wait for everyone to post?

The other is reaction testing a specific person to see if they rise to the bait - 'scum in other games means you must be scum here'.

This is assigning purpose to a vote that didn't have any.

VOTE: WoodyWoodpecker

I don't like that he says he's a bad player, I especially don't like 51 where he says he'll probably do something stupid.

I hate this vote.
You're sheeping Garmr without being honest about the fact that you're just sheeping Garmr.

[Nachomamma8]

I'm here and will read this evening!

I'll vote you.

[Nachomamma8]

Vote: Pistachion

I've been following posts vaguely, but still working. I think that pist is probably the best bet for scum right now (along with Garmr maybe), but will provide more eloquent, confident, and accurate answers when I have just a tiny bit more time.

[Nachomamma8]

What do you think of nacho?????

Why did you ask this question if you didn't have a read on me at that point?

I also think that your posts so far, about seashells, Nacho being a girl, about Demolition Man, might be intentional spam. You're trying to look like town by posting a lot, but posting a lot of nonsense doesn't help town.

Do you really think making 6 nonsense posts helps scum? How?

No you won't. You're town and I'm town. And you can read me like an open book. I think Woody is town. Do you agree?

This is a pretty good response if you're scum!
I do agree that Woody looks town.

I would advance a town read to Nacho but was offput by his quick and early semi-buddy of me with the whole 'looks like we're both town, wink, wink' line - how do you interpret that from him differently than I did?

This read on me makes sense. Your approach to me early game made it seem like you liked what I was producing, so I was surprised you didn't have any opinion on me when you answered Garmr's question, but being creeped out by my interactions with you makes sense (you also were pretty creeped out by my interactions with you in the crosstown where you neighborized me, if I remember correctly).

My computer is force-restarting soon, will finish this after a shower.

[Nachomamma8]

Mmkay. Go crazy. I've seen your scum game once and your town game once, and read a couple of past games. I certainly wouldn't assume I'd be able to pick out if you're scum or not from early game. I'd like to think that my town game would be still improving anyway.

This is a decent response.

I don't like this interaction. It's early game and if you have strong impressions on Nacho you should share them. You asked that question seemingly out of the blue and are giving no justification as to why.

I find it completely reasonable to be annoyed or bothered by Garmr not expanding on his read of me, but I don't understand the scumread here. Why do you think that Garmr-scum didn't state his read on me if he had one (or was pretending to have one)?

It's a valid opinion but not really alignment indicative one. I really don't like how defensive this post is over woody. I don't know if it means his scum or his just someone who's going to clash heads with me over this game.

So...
You think this post is scummy because my response to your Woody suspicion, which I disagreed with and had valid reasons for disagreeing, wasn't alignment indicative. You think it is defensive to respond to another player's suspicion of my townread. Am I interpreting this correctly?

KarmicGuide, why not vote me (who hasn't posted at all), eventi (who's posted barely anything), Radja or even Nacho (who hasn't posted in a long while) for "lurking"?

I understand why Karmic approached the situation in the way he did, but I like this attack.

Wow, that was exhausting... If woody is town, he will be dead weight. All those words and absolutely nothing productive.

VOTE: woody

This vote is surprising.
I never would have expected that you were the type of player who would spring for a policy lynch right off the bat. I don't think you are.

I kinda like Dave for town for having the gumption to psa at the mod. XD

I agree with the dave!town call, but my reasons are different than yours.

Good legit reason, solid work, go team.

Attacking Thor for tongue-in-cheek reasoning when his other positions have been pretty clearly explained is strange.

Vote: Eventi

I don't like the new playstyle, but, more importantly, don't think the shift is genuine.

[Nachomamma8]

Talking of 'wasting time', though, how do you generally feel about it? You seem to have got a read on Woody early - I'll admit I like an rvs page or two to get a read on people.

I don't understand this, even after reading posts around this to refresh myself with the context.
Why did you like how Thor felt about RVS? What was the point of talking about Thor's early Woody read? Were you uncomfortable with it?

Response to Radja looked strange, didn't like the threat of a vote.

Why did you dislike the threat of a vote?
I didn't like his opening, I told him I was probably going to vote soon.
I could have worded it differently and said "I don't like your opening; do better next time", but I don't see how that difference would be particularly important or alignment indicative and I don't understand why either response was problematic.

...Dave, it's 'weak', but not scummy enough for a vote? That's weaker. And scummier.

Why is it scummy that dave saw something that he didn't like it and didn't vote for it? You think he was afraid to put the first vote on you but not afraid to express suspicion of you because... why, exactly?

like Woody's probably town, oh no

Why "oh no"?
I know this is a strange question, but this specific piece seemed really strange.

[Nachomamma8]

VOTE: eventi

Sorry bro

[Nachomamma8]

@Garmr: When I am running short on time, I respond to things while reading instead of catching up on posts I haven't read beforehand; this sometimes leads to me poking at things that have already been addressed. Apologies for the inconvenience.

3. Thor's play seems weird. First, he votes Ciara with no stated reason then attacks Ciara for assuming that his vote was a sheep on Nacho's, which at that point was a valid assumption to make with lack of evidence to the contrary. Also, his blatant attempts to get Woody and Garmr to follow his lead and vote Ciara reek of scum trying to push a weak wagon.

Thor was pushing Ciara because he thinks that wagons are pro-town early game because they generate information. I don't disagree that Ciara's assumption was a valid one to make, but I don't understand why prodding at that was unreasonable. Encouraging people to follow him (I've done the same this game, and will probably do it in the future) forces people to take a stand on your scum read and also increases the chance that people follow you onto your scum read; both effects are protown and I'm not sure why you think it's more likely he's asking people to follow him as scum as opposed to as town.

@Eventi: Are you saying you've picked up new tricks/improved/become a different player, show me. Or, at the very least, give me something: what are your thoughts on the game?

[Nachomamma8]

Also, to expound upon why I think your first post was weird, it sounds an awful lot like "Hey mod, you know why I'm voting *wink wink*." This makes it sound like you had a dialogue before the game, which would only be possible for scum.

This was very clearly a reference to the interaction I had with zakk on the same page. This is a poor point.

[Nachomamma8]

aybe not by itself, but add to that more posts that aren't particularly effective scumhunting (defensive posts, repeating oneself, etc) and you're really worsening the signal-to-noise ratio of Day 1. It gives the appearance of a long and fruitful day, and then somebody town gets lynched, and you suddenly find that the 30 pages of Day 1 aren't as valuable as you'd have liked.

Hmmm.
While you're not exactly wrong (I would argue you're still exaggerating a bit, but not interested in that argument), I think that you're pursuing someone from deviating from optimal town play, which isn't exactly accurate; I think its very hard as scum to intentionally spam up the thread and get away with it if you don't normally spam up the thread as town, and if you spam up the thread as town, you generally aren't aware of how antitown it can be.

[Nachomamma8]

I'm going to sheep the Karmic wagon since, of the 2 wagons, his wagon has a lot more valid arguments.

Could you name one for me?

[Nachomamma8]

Vote: Ciara

I think the Karmic wagon is a pile of garbage. I'm surprised I'm the only person with this opinion.

[Nachomamma8]

Thoughts on Karmic:

The reason why it's not bad play to call out someone for making "jokes" (or spam posts, or some combination of the two), is because the town is going for progress on day 1, while the mafia is going for the appearance of progress. Posting a lot of nonsense is a good way to make yourself harder to PBPA later, makes lazy people who look at postcount in a few IRL days think you're town, and generally obfuscates what the town is trying to do. It's a valid thread to tug on, and I'm tugging on it.

The way I feel right now, you seem as nervous as someone at L2, and you're not at L2. I can tell you hate this attention. You wanted to be the carefree jokester townie who shocks everyone by turning out to be scum all along, and you're pissed at how fast that's falling apart.

Karmic's approach to the early game, as explained in this post, seems to be cutting down on behavior that he considers to be anti-town and endorsing pro-town behavior. I think this is the most logical approach you can take to early game, and thus, while I don't consider his argument against Woody to be particularly strong, I do think that the approach makes sense and I don't mind the reaching argument here as a result.

The bottom paragraph about what he thinks Woody is doing here would be a surprisingly deep thought process for scum at this point in the game; instead of focusing heavily on surface-level interactions as scum do oh so often, he's explaining what he thinks Woody's mindset is at this point in time and why he is making the posts he's making as scum. The assertions also aren't exactly unsupported; I think saying that Woody started the game as a "carefree jokester" and then took a darker tone when pressured is completely accurate, although I don't think it means the same thing that Karmic thinks it does.

Ciara seems like she's here and reading, but not doing specially great scumhunting. That (and also sheeping Thor, I thought that was implicit) is why I'm voting Ciara.

This statement has gotten a bit of heat (in fact, this is why there's a wagon on Karmic if I'm not mistaken), but I disagree very strongly that this was ill-intentioned or even incorrect. There's no way in hell that anyone playing this game can look me in the face that Ciara has made any sort of significant impact in the game at all; she has no major stances, hasn't pushed scumreads, hasn't formed townreads. Postcount means something, but it isn't much; what matters is opinions formed and how they are pushed and she doesn't really have any of those.

[Nachomamma8]

Other things:

Ciara:
I find it amazing that a player could be under pressure for so long and manage not to produce one serious opinion. What's her opinion on Thor? What's her opinion on me? I've found her slow to vote in the past, but it's completely ridiculous that she hasn't even made the slightest effort to post anything that matters despite having the time to put out a decent number of posts. I've been intentionally looking elsewhere in order to give her a little room to work, but the chance that she's actually town is looking pretty terrible at this point.

Eventi:
Boooo. I hate how he has time to explain what he means by "my game has changed" but has no time or interest in anything happening. This read is weaker than the Ciara-read, but I'm still waiting for something useful from the slot.

[Nachomamma8]

@Nacho - you find Ciara slow to post votes in the past. Would you disagree that she is slow to offer opinions?

I would.

[Nachomamma8]

VOTE: Ciara

[Nachomamma8]

While neither is a really solid case, I lean towards the Karmic wagon because after looking at her ISO Ciara has actually given some opinions of people and has given valid reasons for not being as active in this game. On the other hand, Karmic has been posting consistently and has several people pointing out the flaws in his arguments.

Having flaws in arguments isn't a scumtell.
Which one of his arguments do you think is flawed enough to be considered scummy aka was so bad you couldn't see where he was coming from if town?

[Nachomamma8]

Is the Karmic is reaching argument referring to the "Ciara is lurky" statement?
If not, what is it referring to?

[Nachomamma8]

That's just the tip of the ice berg ²64 not only did he change his story to produced no town content which is another reach. He accused me of role hunting and trying to tell my scum team

I've explained why I don't think that his initial assertion of "Ciara was lurking" was unreasonable; would you mind responding to that?

Him refining his position to "Ciara isn't doing any scumhunting" is a fine position to change to in my opinion because 1) it's true (if you disagree, find me one of Ciara's reads), and 2) its not that far off from his initial statement.

He did say that rolefishing was a possible explanation for something you said. Why is that scummy?

[Nachomamma8]

Oh let's not forgot that my hostile nature makes all my points which I explained well null

I remember him saying that you character asassinated people. I don't remember him saying that makes all of your points null as a result.

[Nachomamma8]

because that's reaching as fuck now I know your scum.

My argument isn't that he isn't reaching. My argument is that his reaching (wrt to the role hunting accusation) isn't scummy.

saying yes is no way near what he said..

I'm afraid I don't really know what you're talking about here.

The change is bad because it was not his original reason and it looked like panicked.

You're correct, it wasn't his original reason. It also wasn't very far off from his original reason and his new reasoning made sense; that's why I was okay with it. I don't think that every accusation a player makes in this game has to be completely accurate, and acknowledging his mistake and explaining why he felt that way in the first place is probably the best way Karmic could have handled making a mistake in that situation.

[Nachomamma8]

Also ciara has a town read on karmic and I believe a scum read on Thor

You're partially correct; she has a town read on Karmic and a town read on Thor for no stated reasons at all. I maintain that this isn't anything close to an acceptable level of scumhunting.

I can see ciaras reasoning when debating Thor.

What are you referring to here?

[Nachomamma8]

I'm finding both cases to be relatively ok for D1 and what is bothering me the most is the vehemence against the wagons on both sides.

I disagree with the Karmic wagon. I wouldn't say that I'm "vehemently" against it, especially since the bulk of my effort has been figuring out why the Karmic wagon is a thing (which still isn't clear to me fwiw and would love if someone engaged me on the points there).

[Nachomamma8]

@Nacho - thoughts on Garmr and the WK thought I had.

Intentionally not unvoting Ciara while asking this.

I don't think it's very likely. I read a little bit into Garmr's games as scum to see if he plays like this as scum (he doesn't); I also don't think that the condescension in the "I'm the only not idiot" in the attitude is faked and don't think it would feature so predominantly if we were trying to lynch a townie as a counterwagon to Garmr!scum trying to lynch a townie.

[Nachomamma8]

Silverwolf :/
It was my expectation for you-scum replacing in to give nothing of substance, and then avoid the thread for a little while. I see you doing exactly that.

[Nachomamma8]

Silverwolf, your opening in Nightless in Team Mafia gave me the impression you didn't like playing scum so I was just prodding a bit to see what shook out.

[Nachomamma8]

Eventi = Not much to go on, kind of seems like unlikely scum... Also feels like a smart player. Could be a great town asset with more contribution. Bad D1 lynch.

Why does eventi seem like unlikely scum to you?

[Nachomamma8]

I'm also confused how Gummy and Radja are bad lynches because they haven't produced enough but Ciara somehow has?

[Nachomamma8]

I'd be amendable to flashwagons on all of pistachi0n/Gummy/eventi with a preference for eventi/pistachi0n.

[Nachomamma8]

But mostly I just want to lynch Ciara and see what happens.

[Nachomamma8]

Deadline is in 13 hours!
Let's get a hammer!!

[Nachomamma8]

VOTE: Vote: Bellaphant

I am going to do a little looking around elsewhere, but my reread yesterday put the two likeliest scum at Bellaphant and eventi.

I also think that if a: town cop/tracker/jailkeeper/roleblocker exists then they should claim immediately; my intuition tells me the reason a mafia roleblocker is in the game an overwhelmingly majority of the time is to break up investigation/protection circles bringing investigative out so they can be protected is probably the optimal move here.

[Nachomamma8]

VOTE: Bellaphant

damn vote tags

[Nachomamma8]

The Reds - Roleblocker + Godfather against Tracker + Cop, only protective was one-shot bulletproof
Paint the town Red Tracker + Vig + Doctor against Roleblocker
A Game of Pokes - Cop/Doctor against Roleblocker

It turns out that Mafia Roleblockers are not as common in games as I thought they were, and that hitting the roleblocker Day 1 is not as awesome as I thought it would be. I still think that investigative outing at this point has a pretty big chance of breaking the game, so, if you see this and trust me and feel like outing, out away.

If not, don't.

[Nachomamma8]

I'll post more reads-based things soon.

[Nachomamma8]

Am going to have limited time for a little while; my time here is mostly going to spent generating information over pushing reads, so sorry in advance for bringing up a bunch of old stuff ;[

@Gimlear:

Thor's play seems weird. First, he votes Ciara with no stated reason then attacks Ciara for assuming that his vote was a sheep on Nacho's, which at that point was a valid assumption to make with lack of evidence to the contrary. Also, his blatant attempts to get Woody and Garmr to follow his lead and vote Ciara reek of scum trying to push a weak wagon.

I'm actually the most interested in your thoughts on Thor's alignment today; you seemed the one who was the most critical of Thor's play based on handling the push and I'm wondering if some of that paranoia carried over today or if you think that he's absolutely town. I have my own thoughts of him (which is going to have a bit of personal experience weaved in, sorry!) which I'm waiting to share until certain other people have their say.

Also, to expound upon why I think your first post was weird, it sounds an awful lot like "Hey mod, you know why I'm voting *wink wink*." This makes it sound like you had a dialogue before the game, which would only be possible for scum.

I can't say I see where you got this impression from. Thor's first post was voting Ciara while stating that he would share his reasoning if requested by the mod, which... doesn't sound anything like pre-game discussion at all?

I asked Thor some questions in an attempt to get a read on him, and he answered them in a satisfactory way. I may not like his reasons, but at least he has explained his reasons. You have yet to explain what about what about Dave's meta makes him look scummy in this game or why Karmic's posts actions have been scummy.

One of my major concerns about you coming into today was the way it seemed like you flipped from suspecting Thor to supporting him and pushing Ciara when her lynch seemed inevitable down the road; the way you're approaching Thor here makes me feel a little bit better about the push in general, although, I still don't really understand why you pushed for the Karmic wagon in the first place. I understand why you chose Karmic over Ciara, but I don't understand why those were the only two viable choices: you had no problem making waves and pushing Thor earlier in the game, but suddenly later you can't vote anything that's not a wagon?

This question is significant to me because it makes sense that scum in your position would limit his options to his scumbuddy and the counterwagon townie; pushing a different vanity wagon could potentially put two scum in trouble early which would be bad and also wouldn't really help your buddy, while pushing partner for towncred/fighting for her survival by pushing the counterwagon are two moves that make a great deal more sense.

This is a valid point, which is why I was considering an intent to hammer on Ciara before the others already did it. Regardless, I third the intent to hammer on Ciara.

This post is a pretty good representation of a couple of the problems I have with your interactions with Ciara. For one, you always seem to be acting in Ciara's best interest for a majority of the day (explaining why the case on her is weak, voting the counterwagon) despite not having a townread on the slot. And then, when Ciara is in trouble beyond trouble, you suddenly make sure that you are seen supporting the wagon (by declaring a third hammer intent when it

really

wasn't necessary and talking about declaring an intent to hammer before others did despite not saying anything about it in thread), which are exactly the type of interactions I expect to be happening from at least one scum.

@Radja: While I was initially wary of Thor for pushing the Ciara wagon so hard so early, I'm getting a much better town vibe from him now that he has explained his thought processes.

What points did you like from Thor that made the wagon more appealing than before? It was my impression that the reasons for the wagon never changed from the beginning; they just ended up gaining strength because Ciara continued to lurk and dodge.

[Nachomamma8]

Vote: Gimlear

Putting my vote here as a bit of an exploration, no need to be as aggressive with a cop on the spot.

My major concern at this point, for those who don't care to read much, is mostly the interaction Gim's had with the Thor wagon. Gim ends up defending Ciara without defending her for a majority of the day; he calls the wagon on her weak, he prods at the wagon's main aggressor. I thought that the way that he limited his options to Ciara/Karmic when he wasn't really hyped about either wagon was to increase Ciara's chance of survival; it doesn't make sense to me for him to focus on those two wagons and those two wagons only for any other reason. I also thought that his shift away from Thor was unnatural; I don't think Thor's reasons for lynching Ciara changed significantly throughout the day and so Gimlear not being sold by the Ciara case until it looked like Ciara was a dead woman walking and then suddenly being moved seems fishy to me.

[Nachomamma8]

Pistachi0n:

On a gut level, I'm more okay with Pistach's interactions with the Ciara slot because they seem less fake, but I acknowledge I don't really have much pointing to the townside that's not "gut".

Or, maybe spoke too soon:

Strongest scum--it's changed to Thor, at first I thought he was just trying to disguise an RVS but his case on Ciara seems like he just wants her out of the game. Maybe he thinks she'll figure him out, regardless, he's looking scummier to me than woody now.

Accusing Thor of wanting to get Ciara out of the game is a step farther than just saying that his arguments are weak, and that's a good sign to me. I also like the direct attack on Thor this scenario; again, the best chance scum had of saving their buddy Ciara was going all in on the Karmic wagon, not on Thor, and pistach ignoring that and going for this feels good.

Thor's reactions since the last time I posted seem town. I still don't like the Ciara wagon, but Karmic is a stronger town read. With no posted countdown, I can't bet on it being 2 weeks. So fine.

VOTE: Ciara

How exactly were Thor's reactions in that segment different from any one of his reactions throughout the entire game?

So I reluctantly switched to Ciara.

I do like how he doesn't seem as concerned with the towncred he could get from the lynch even though he took a fairly aggressive position on the wagon (and think he would be much less likely to put that vote on if scum - I mean I guess he could have thought there was a possibility of the deadline being super close and Ciara getting instantly lynched, but), and I don't think he's that experienced of a scum player to start pushing the "vote your buddy while calling them null/town" trick for towncred.

[Nachomamma8]

So, while I don't think I'm going to freak out of cry if Pistach gets lynched, I don't think he should die today. The strongest points in his favor I think is how he played in a way that would be pretty counter intuitive if he was scum (most notably Thor push when Karmic was the only real alternative) and also the deadline vote that put him on a decently early spot on the wagon seem like something far more likely to come from town than scum; I don't think he was faking the deadline panic because why would he fake something like that as scum and I don't think he votes his buddy at that point if he thinks day is going to end at any time unless he

really really

wants the towncred and that doesn't seem to be the case based on his opinion of the Ciara wagon UNLESS he's just a sneaky fucker.

[Nachomamma8]

And I don't think he's a sneaky fucker.

[Nachomamma8]

Vote: Silverwolf

I don't think I've ever seen a scumteam in a Mini Normal that has three power roles so I'm guessing Godfather is unlikely although it would make a lot of sense? My initial thought was that there probably wasn't a protective role as a result, but no kill night 1 so ???.

Pistach claiming the guilty in her first post and the excitement expressed around it makes her town (sorry for calling you a guy!).

I can talk more about why I wanted cop to claim if it's unnecessary but it's still optimal move after D1 roleblocker lynch and N1 no kill. Interested in hearing Silver's result.

[Nachomamma8]

lol what

[Nachomamma8]

I'm a doctor, I protected Thor last night

[Nachomamma8]

Would be surprised if the last scum wasn't a godfather: I know exactly who Dave jailed and would be very surprised if silver was bullshitting to clear a buddy

[Nachomamma8]

Still think Silver is the best play for today although I'm significantly less sure about that than I was before

[Nachomamma8]

There are an asston of PRs already on the board, I'm pretty confident that Silverwolf is scum #2 based on how things fell through and feel like breaking this game out in the open is probably the best way to play this.

[Nachomamma8]

Especially considering I have three solid townreads on three claimed PRs

[Nachomamma8]

Like...

Pistach investigates Bella so she's fully confirmed
I protect Dave
Radja investigates next in line
Dave jailkeeps someone different

Then tomorrow we have two conftown + pistach + Dave + Radja with 10 players alive which is an instant win if Dave claims his targets beforehand

[Nachomamma8]

Yeah, I'm not voting now because I want to talk it out

[Nachomamma8]

Who protects you? Why not lay low and keep protecting Radja?

Don't think it's necessary; even if scum shoot me tonight, we have an instant win by tomorrow. I wouldn't out if that wasn't the case.

[Nachomamma8]

I'm sure I have.

Let me clarify that: three scum power roles. If you have, could you link it? I think it would be useful.

Just tossing smokescreen here...Doc?

Yep.

It really wasn't without inside info, in my opinion.

I agree.

[Nachomamma8]

Pistach investigates Bella so she's fully confirmed
I protect Dave
Radja investigates next in line
Dave jailkeeps someone different

This seems dumb - Radja is high and dry.
Explain?

It was my thought at the time that any player confirmed by Dave was 100% confirmed since I would assume the last role would be a godfather; mafia ascetic is the only other role that could give false confirmations (we can assume it's not a strongman since no kill N1) and that doesn't seem as likely to me when the Mafia Roleblocker can already do that.

[Nachomamma8]

I know exactly who Dave jailed

Anyone planning to question this? I think I'll hold off on the result a bit.

My guess is Bellaphant; your opening at the beginning of the day made it seem like you were pretty excited to catch scum and if you're JK I couldn't really see you targeting anyone else.

[Nachomamma8]

Nacho 's plan is horrible, why would I need to be double confirmed?? Surely the jk can be used more usefully, and we protect the doc?

Protecting me is useless since I can't confirm anyone and I can't protect anyone if I'm role blocked. I'm not using the JK to double confirm you; the JK is currently our strongest tool to confirm. I'm using the role cop to double confirm you since Godfather seems like the most reasonable expectation for the third scum power role.

[Nachomamma8]

Maybe - though except in the specific instance of a GF - the cop is more useful by far, yeah?

Not once we lynch Silverwolf.

Role cop can find any non-goon scum.
JK can find any non-ascetic scum.
Cop can find any non-godfather scum.

I find Godfather to be the most plausible option.

[Nachomamma8]

Interesting, especially since we got a result on Bella - you're presuming a Jailkeeper in the specific wiki sense and not the JKer that is sometimes called the alien, which I see more often here at Mafiascum?

I haven't played with an alien variant, but you've probably played more normals than me.

[Nachomamma8]

Usually on this board they just call Alien 'Jailkeeper' all it means is that you can't target the jailkept person, whereas non-alien varients *can* have the jailkept person targeted.
You're presuming the newbie-esque jailkeeper, where target can still be the target of other abilities, and it's just sort of like a focused roleblock, yes?

Yes, but even if it's the alien variant, it shouldn't mess up anything confirmations-wise; we don't need other investigatives targeting the JK's target.

[Nachomamma8]

Nacho 's plan is horrible, why would I need to be double confirmed?? Surely the jk can be used more usefully, and we protect the doc?

I'm starting to have doubts on nacho because I know he isn't this dumb

Guide me through where my thought process is going wrong here; the biggest stretch in my reasoning in my opinion is the part where I think Godfather is the most likely scum power role remaining, but I thought we were on the same page with that.

[Nachomamma8]

Okay.

@Nacho - if we tag scum today do you agree to protect Dave above all others?
Since, at that point, he's better than a rolecop even for GF finding.

yep

[Nachomamma8]

With regards to the Pistach and SilverWolf scenario, pistach did claim under pressure, but she also claimed as soon as she arrived in thread and before there was significant pressure on the slot; it's a risky and creative move to put yourself in that kind of scenario in order to lynch a pretty weak power role that could A) be lynched even if Silver outed under pressure, or 2) could just be killed with little complaint overnight.

Silverwolf, in response to pressure, has also pretty much just crumpled up and died and showed absolute faith in a plan that has't really been fleshed out nor shows a clear path to winning in the case of a Silver!town lynch. I don't really think that's a town response to a fake guilty on someone.

[Nachomamma8]

Yes, I do. The more I think about it tho more Silver's play just doesn't make sense as scum. Why would he out the JK to his scum buddies unless he was in danger of getting lynched? Also, I had a stronger scum read on Pista before the claims.

This argument makes absolutely no sense. For one, Silver WAS in danger of getting lynched (unless what equates to a guilty result somehow doesn't put someone in lynch danger), and for two, why not? Outing your night actions is generally understood to be something you do when you're an outed power role, and it's not like claiming something other than a role cop would have decreased her chances of getting lynched.

[Nachomamma8]

@Rolecops - could you each clarify what result you get from goons and VTs? Thanks!

I don't know. All I know is that I get role abilities.

Ask the moderator.

[Nachomamma8]

As far as the timing, I said something as soon as I could get in the thread. I already said I did not have a ton of time or energy to put up a big fight and once everyone was out, I realized there was indeed a very clear path to winning even if I died.

As far as outing the result, that was the best way I had to prove I was telling the truth. Not even sure why that was ever a problem.

I also said I would answer any questions regarding this and have and still will. I did not give up at all.

I will be busy all day at work today. I can't be here all the time.

Who do you think is the third scum and why? Who do you think is the scumteam if pistach is town?

[Nachomamma8]

A possibility is that another doc saved you, and Nacho claimed doc b/c he saw an opportunity to do so. He's an experienced player. Though, IDK if it'd make sense for him to do that, as scum or as town.

So then I get counterclaimed...?
I'm not sure I see the benefit in this scum!Nacho plan.

[Nachomamma8]

This argument makes absolutely no sense. For one, Silver WAS in danger of getting lynched (unless what equates to a guilty result somehow doesn't put someone in lynch danger), and for two, why not? Outing your night actions is generally understood to be something you do when you're an outed power role, and it's not like claiming something other than a role cop would have decreased her chances of getting lynched.

I was saying this in response to the argument that Silver outed the JK because scum. My point is that scum would want to out their information to their scum buddies in case they get lynched because they haven't had a chance yet to tell them. This doesn't seem to be the case with silver.

Why not?

[Nachomamma8]

VOTE: Silverwolf

Also while I was doing some rereading, noticed in Silver's catchup list that she had Dave as a neutral read and thought she would check up on his scumgames; jailkeeper seems like a pretty town result to me and so I'm not sure she would have him as "neutral" if she was doing a reads list; making a promise to read scumgames of someone's when you are pretty clearly not going to do that additionally seems pretty weird, even if you were trying to hide that you were a PR (but why would you hide you were a rolecop...?).

[Nachomamma8]

Confirming that silver is at L-1, wouldn't really cry if someone hammered.

[Nachomamma8]

Am confused, to say the least.

[Nachomamma8]

I understand the plan.

[Nachomamma8]

I protected Dave.

[Nachomamma8]

Nacho - talk to me, I am a little out of it tonight. What names here can we consider confirmed? I am thinking it's still no one, only a bunch of conditional clears, yeah?

Bella *should* be clear once that question comes through; detecting active abilities only is not quite rolecop and I'm not really sure the NRG would let zakk get away with a strange modification like that and still call it a rolecop.

You are clear unless scum shot Bella N1, which seems highly unlikely to me.

Radja is clear unless he/Silverwolf coordinated the claim based on the jailkeeper result, which seems highly unlikely to me.

Dave is clear unless he decided to no kill last night for absolutely no reason; he also has the Silverwolf scenario supporting him, so yeah, probably most definitely town.

Pistach is clear unless she decided to bus her partner with the rolecop fake claim thing after her partner received a jailkeeper result; this seems pretty ridiculously unlikely.

I am clear unless scum shot Bella N1; I also cannot win in this position since I can't kill dave as scum without it being a scum claim.

Eventi is clear unless Godfather, which isn't extremely unlikely.

So pool of likely scum probably lies in

{Gimlear, Karmic, eventi, gummy}

[Nachomamma8]

Event's response to being investigated as town was pretty town; having trouble seeing a godfather thank the cop for the investigative result, but understand where he's coming from if town.

Karmic speculation that there are two teams today seems pretty ballsy for blocked scum, also guessing he's probably town.

Between Gim/Gummy/Garmr I guess I'd lean Gim; if dave jail kept there I'd be a happy man. If dave jail kept me that's where I'd recommend lynching. If dave jail kept anywhere else outside the group I will be incredibly confused.

[Nachomamma8]

hmmmmmmmmmmmm.

[Nachomamma8]

I just spent three hours running through situations (and lost all the big post I was working on!) but mostly it seems we're in an autowin situation unless strongmen aren't killing or Godfathers are no killing or making really stupid kills, so.

[Nachomamma8]

Jail Karmic (who, I agree, looked a touch scummy today and tail end of yesterday)
Cop/Rolecop in the Gim/Gummy/Garmr pool (perhaps even specifically calling them out - not sure.)
Doc Jailkeeper.

If we have another no kill day then we can lynch Karmic and cop/rolecop the last of the G's plus, I dunno, me or Nacho or something.
If scum is no killing they'll have to debate sitting and letting us basically investigate everyone else.
If they're not no killing they're Karmic and are busted at this stage.

Anyone see any holes or improvements to that plan?

I'll work on things again in a while, but I think we would have our success improved with me protecting the rolecop and lynching Karmic today.

[Nachomamma8]

Or protecting Radja.

[Nachomamma8]

Yeaah, though I will admit a rolecop and an 'active power investigator' seems a little wonky to me. It doesn't to you? Of course I guess Silver could have been lying about how his power worked, but I don't really see a reason to do that, and at the same time don't see a reason to have the two powers work differently with the same role name - I would actually even go so far as to call that shades of bastard mod, no?

That would be bastard modding, yes.
So I'm assuming Pistach's power works like Silver's for now; if Pistach claims the mod told her differently then we'll lynch her today and revisit confirmed and not confirmed then.

[Nachomamma8]

Assuming Karmic lynch today (which is optimal, I guess I can get into that if it's really needed)

{Bella} is a perfect clear.
{Eventi} is Godfather or town.
{Dave, Pistach, Nacho, Radja} claimed power.
{Thor} isn't scum unless bussed Roleblocker, then no killed/made weird kills twice in a row.
{Garmr, Gummy, Gimlear} are remaining.
Cop can catch all non-Godfather scum. JK can catch all non-strongman scum (seems the strongest clear since two no kills). Rolecop can catch all non-Goon scum (also seems a very strong clear since Roleblocker + Rolecop don't seem strong enough to excuse all these power roles).
Radja investigates Garmr, Dave jails Gummy, Pistach rolecops Gimlear, I protect Pistach.

If scum kills outside of the power roles/Bella/doesn't no kill, we win. Then we're looking at the following scenarios:

1) If Scum Kills Dave

If scum kills Dave, Bella is still a perfect clear. Gummy is Strongman or town. Gimlear is Goon or town. Garmr is Godfather or town. Eventi is a Godfather or town. Thor/Nacho are both town unless no kill shenanigans. Radja/Pistach are town unless shenanigans.

Lynch Thor, Protect Radja, Rolecop Radja, Investigate Gimlear.

If Radja dies, Strongman/me-scum is confirmed and thus (Gim/Garmr/Eventi/Bella) are all confirmed town and thus autowin.

If Pistach dies, then Radja/Bella/Gimlear are perfect clears, Gummy is Strongman or town, Garmr/Eventi are Godfathers or town, I am unconfirmed. No lynch, I protect Radja both nights. If Radja dies either night, then 4 of (Gim/Garmr/Eventi/Bella/Gummy) are confirmed as town and town wins. If scum kills other clears both nights, then 2 of (Radja/Gimlear/Gummy) will be confirmed as town with (Garmr/Eventi/me) as Godfather or town. Lynch two of them for win.

If Bella/Gimlear die, then {Radja, one of Bella/Gimlear, one of Garmr/Eventi} are perfect clears, Gummy is Strongman or town, one of Garmr/Eventi is Godfather or town, I am unconfirmed. No Lynch, I protect Radja, Radja investigates Gummy, Pistach investigates the other one of Garmr/Eventi. If Radja dies, auto-win. If Pistach and Radja live and a different clear dies, there are 3 confirmed town total and I can protect Pistach for another clear for guaranteed 3 in 5p, or I die and there are 4 confirmeds in 4p.

If non Pistach/Radja/Bella/Gimlear die, there will be 4 confirmeds in 7p which leads to auto-win.

[Nachomamma8]

2) If Scum kills Bella

If scum kills Bella. Gummy is Strongman or town. Gimlear is Goon or town. Garmr is Godfather or town. Eventi is a Godfather or town. Nacho/Dave/Radja/Pistach are all power roles. Thor is lynch.

Lynch Thor, Protect Radja, Rolecop Radja, Investigate Gimlear, Jailkeep Garmr.

If scum kills Radja, Gummy/Gim/Garmr/Eventi are all confirmed town in 7p and thus auto-win.

If scum kills me, Radja/Gimlear/Garmr are all confirmed town. Eventi is Godfather or town. Gummy is Strongman or town. Dave/Pistach power roles. No lynch, Dave Jailkeeps Eventi, Pistach role cops Gummy. Scum can't stop 4 full clears from being generated so instant win.

If scum kills Dave, Radja/Gimlear/Garmr are all confirmed town. Eventi is Godfather or town. Gummy is Strongman or town. Pistach/Me Power roles. Radja investigates Gummy, Pistach Investigates Eventi, scum can't stop 4 clears.

IF scum kills Pistach, Radja/Gimlear/Garmr confirmed town. Eventi Godfather or town. Gummy strongman or town. Dave/me Power roles. Radja investigates Gummy, Pistach investigates Eventi, scum can't stop 4 clears.

Scum kills another clear, two more clears take their place, thus town wins.

[Nachomamma8]

3) Scum Kills Me
If scum kills me, Bella is town. Gummy is Strongman or town. Gimlear is Goon or town. Garmr is Godfather or town. Eventi is a Godfather or town. Dave/Radja/Pistach are all power roles. Thor is lynch.
Dave jails Eventi, Pistach rolecops Garmr, Radja investigates Gummy.

If scum shoots a non-PR clear, then there will be 3 clears, 1 person who isn't fully cleared, and 3 power roles. Pistach and one of Radja/Dave will be able to generate a clear or a double lynch and thus auto-win.

If scum shoots a PR, Bella/Eventi/Gamr/Gummy will be confirmed and town wins.

[Nachomamma8]

4) Scum Kills Pistach

If scum kills Pistach, Bella is town. Gummy is Strongman or town. Garmr is Godfather or town. Eventi is Godfather or town. Me/Dave/Radja are all Power roles. Gimlear/Thor are unconfirmed.
Gimlear is lynched, Radja investigates Thor, Dave jailkeeps Eventi, I protect Dave.

If Dave dies, then Bella/Garmr/Eventi/Thor are all confirmed town, town wins.

If Radja dies, then Bella/Eventi are confirmed town, Gummy is Strongman or town, Garmr is Godfather or town, Me/Thor/Dave are unconfirmed. Lynch Thor, I protect one of Bella/Eventi, Dave jails Garmr. If there's a kill in Bella/Eventi, then Garmr plus one of {Bella, Eventi} is confirmed town, Gummy is Strongman or town, me/Dave are unconfirmed. Choose 2 of Gummy/Dave/me for win.

If I die, then Bella/Eventi are confirmed town, Gummy is Strongman or town, Garmr/Thor are Godfather or town, Radja/Dave are power roles. No lynch, Dave jails Garmr, Radja investigates Gummy. If there's a kill, 3 of Bella/Eventi/Gummy/Garmr will be confirmed town and town wins. If there's not a kill, Bella/Eventi/Gummy will be confirmed town, Dave jails Garmr again, Radja investigates Dave. If there is a kill, 3 of Bella/Eventi/Gummy/Garmr will be confirmed town and town wins. If there's not a kill again, Bella/Eventi/Gummy will be confirmed town, Garmr will be confirmed not Godfather, Dave will be confirmed not Godfather, Radja is cop. Radja gets lynched. Dave jails Garmr again. If there's a kill, Dave is scum. If there isn't a kill, Bella/Eventi/Gummy still confirmed town and town wins.

If non Dave/Radja is killed, they can generate clears fast enough to create autowin.

[Nachomamma8]

I'll translate that later, leaving the house now.

[Nachomamma8]

oh whoops one more

5) If Scum Kills Radja

If scum kills Radja, Bella is town. Gummy is Strongman or town. Garmr is Godfather or town. Eventi is Godfather or town. Gimlear is Goon or town. Me/Dave/Pistach are all Power roles. Thor is unconfirmed.

Lynch Thor, Jailkeep Garmr, Pistach rolecops Gummy, I protect Pistach.

If Dave dies, Bella/Gummy/Garmr all town with Gim as Goon or town, Eventi as Godfather or town, Me/Pistach as power. I protect Pistach, Pistach investigates Eventi, we lynch Gim; if Pistach gets an innocent, lynch me and Pistach. If Pistach gets a guilty, lynch Pistach and Eventi.

If Pistach dies, Bella/Gummy/Garmr/Gim/Eventi all town, insta-win.

If Bella dies, Gummy/Gamr both confirmed town, Gim as Goon or town, Eventi as Godfather or town, Dave/Pistach as Power roles, me as doc. Lynch me, Dave jails Gim, Pistach investigates Eventi, at least three innocents in 5p if scum kill. If they don't, Gummy/Garmr/Eventi as confirmed town, Dave/Pistach as power roles, Gim as Goon or town. Dave jails Gim again, Pistach investigates Dave, no lynch. Then same confirmed town, Dave as Mafia Jailkeeper or town, Gim as Goon or town, and Pistach. Lynch Pistach; if kill, Dave scum. If no kill, lynch Dave and Gim.

[Nachomamma8]

Here are the two scenarios where scum could win:
(if Dave is killed)

If Pistach dies, then Radja/Bella/Gimlear are perfect clears, Gummy is Strongman or town, Garmr/Eventi are Godfathers or town, I am unconfirmed. No lynch, I protect Radja both nights. If Radja dies either night, then 4 of (Gim/Garmr/Eventi/Bella/Gummy) are confirmed as town and town wins. If scum kills other clears both nights, then 2 of (Radja/Gimlear/Gummy) will be confirmed as town with (Garmr/Eventi/me) as Godfather or town. Lynch two of them for win.

(if Pistach is killed)

Choose 2 of Gummy/Dave/me for win.

[Nachomamma8]

Lynching Karmic today is by far the best plan but I'd love if you gave me just a little more time to finish drawing up the plan if he flips town.

[Nachomamma8]

Here are the two scenarios where scum could win:
(if Dave is killed)

If Pistach dies, then Radja/Bella/Gimlear are perfect clears, Gummy is Strongman or town, Garmr/Eventi are Godfathers or town, I am unconfirmed. No lynch, I protect Radja both nights. If Radja dies either night, then 4 of (Gim/Garmr/Eventi/Bella/Gummy) are confirmed as town and town wins. If scum kills other clears both nights, then 2 of (Radja/Gimlear/Gummy) will be confirmed as town with (Garmr/Eventi/me) as Godfather or town. Lynch two of them for win.

(if Pistach is killed)

Choose 2 of Gummy/Dave/me for win.

For the record, Thor/Gimlear/Gummy/Garmr are interchangeable as people we could take to endgame. I think Thor is probably the least likely of the bunch (maybe he would bus his role blocker and make the first no kill as scum, but no way in hell the second happens), so I'd prefer to take him for these two possible endgames:

Kill 2 of {Thor, Eventi, Me} (all confirmed as Godfather or town)

OR

Kill 2 of {Thor, Dave, Me} (Thor has to be Strongman)

Either scenario is great for us, meaning that the only way that we lose to scum in this game is if Thor is a Godfather or a Strongman.
If Thor is a Godfather, then he has to kill Dave tonight; if I protect Dave, he loses.
If Thor is a Strongman, then he has to kill Pistach tonight without me protecting Pistach; if he strongman kills Pistach while I'm protecting her, game is confirmed to have a strongman immediately and thus he loses there too.

[Nachomamma8]

4) Scum Kills Pistach

If scum kills Pistach, Bella is town. Gummy is Strongman or town. Garmr is Godfather or town. Eventi is Godfather or town. Me/Dave/Radja are all Power roles. Gimlear/Thor are unconfirmed.
Gimlear is lynched, Radja investigates Thor, Dave jailkeeps Eventi, I protect Dave.

If Dave dies, then Bella/Eventi are confirmed town. Gummy is Strongman or town, Garmr is Godfather or town, Me/Thor/Radja are unconfirmed. Lynch Thor, I protect Radja, Radja investigates Gummy. If Radja dies, Bella/Eventi/Gummy are all confirmed town in 5 players alive. If a different clear dies, then 2 of {Bella/Eventi/Gummy} are confirmed town, Garmr is Godfather or Town, Radja and I are uncleared. Choose 2 of Me/Garmr/Radja for the win.

If Radja dies, then Bella/Eventi are confirmed town, Gummy is Strongman or town, Garmr is Godfather or town, Me/Thor/Dave are unconfirmed. Lynch Thor, I protect one of Bella/Eventi, Dave jails Garmr. If there's a kill in Bella/Eventi, then Garmr plus one of {Bella, Eventi} is confirmed town, Gummy is Strongman or town, me/Dave are unconfirmed. Choose 2 of Gummy/Dave/me for win.

If I die, then Bella/Eventi are confirmed town, Gummy is Strongman or town, Garmr/Thor are Godfather or town, Radja/Dave are power roles. No lynch, Dave jails Garmr, Radja investigates Gummy. If there's a kill, 3 of Bella/Eventi/Gummy/Garmr will be confirmed town and town wins. If there's not a kill, Bella/Eventi/Gummy will be confirmed town, Dave jails Garmr again, Radja investigates Dave. If there is a kill, 3 of Bella/Eventi/Gummy/Garmr will be confirmed town and town wins. If there's not a kill again, Bella/Eventi/Gummy will be confirmed town, Garmr will be confirmed not Godfather, Dave will be confirmed not Godfather, Radja is cop. Radja gets lynched. Dave jails Garmr again. If there's a kill, Dave is scum. If there isn't a kill, Bella/Eventi/Gummy still confirmed town and town wins.

If non Dave/Radja is killed, they can generate clears fast enough to create autowin.

In this scenario, if Pistach is killed, I could also WIFOM protecting Radja or Dave, with scum automatically losing if I made the correct choice.

[Nachomamma8]

1) If Scum Kills Dave

If scum kills Dave, Bella is still a perfect clear. Gummy is Strongman or town. Gimlear is Goon or town. Garmr is Godfather or town. Eventi is a Godfather or town. Thor/Nacho are both town unless no kill shenanigans. Radja/Pistach are town unless shenanigans.

Lynch Thor, Protect Radja, Rolecop Radja, Investigate Gimlear.

If Radja dies, then Bella is town. Gummy is Strongman or town. Gimlear is Goon or town. Garmr and Eventi are Godfather or town. Me/Pistach are unconfirmed. We lynch Gimlear, Pistach role cops Eventi, I protect Pistach. If Pistach dies, Bella//Garmr/Eventi are all confirmed town in 5p and thus town wins. If I die, Bella/Gummy are confirmed town, with Garmr (has to be Godfather), Gummy (has to be Strongman), and Pistach remaining. Pick 2 from that group.

If Pistach dies, then Radja/Bella/Gimlear are perfect clears, Gummy is Strongman or town, Garmr/Eventi are Godfathers or town, I am unconfirmed. No lynch, I protect Radja both nights. If Radja dies either night, then 4 of (Gim/Garmr/Eventi/Bella/Gummy) are confirmed as town and town wins. If scum kills other clears both nights, then 2 of (Radja/Gimlear/Gummy) will be confirmed as town with (Garmr/Eventi/me) as Godfather or town. Lynch two of them for win.

If Bella/Gimlear die, then {Radja, one of Bella/Gimlear, one of Garmr/Eventi} are perfect clears, Gummy is Strongman or town, one of Garmr/Eventi is Godfather or town, I am unconfirmed. No Lynch, I protect Radja, Radja investigates Gummy, Pistach investigates the other one of Garmr/Eventi. If Radja dies, auto-win. If Pistach and Radja live and a different clear dies, there are 3 confirmed town total and I can protect Pistach for another clear for guaranteed 3 in 5p, or I die and there are 4 confirmeds in 4p.

If non Pistach/Radja/Bella/Gimlear die, there will be 4 confirmeds in 7p which leads to auto-win.

Expanding this; if scum kill Dave, I could force scum to kill me and we could create a LyLo of two of {Garmr, Thor, Gummy, Gimlear} and Pistach, with a free investigative result on each member of the first group.

[Nachomamma8]

POSSIBLE LYLOs:

1) 2 confirmed town + (Radja Investigation/Eventi/me)
2) 2 confirmed town + (2 of {Radja Investigation, Dave Investigation, Pistach Investigation & Pistach)
3) 2 confirmed town + (Dave Investigation/Dave/me)
4) 2 confirmed town + (Radja Investigation/Radja/me)

We can choose a specific LyLo, or I can randomize my protections for the next 2 nights and we can decide where we want to put people. I think 75% chance of forcing scum to lose the game outright is pretty great plus feel decently about {Thor, Garmr} and really don't think either of them are playing the cracked out game this would require, so would propose the following LyLos:

1) 2 confirmed town + (Thor/Eventi/me) [last scum has to be Godfather]
2) 2 confirmed town + (Thor/Garmr/Pistach) [Thor has to be Godfather, Garmr has to be Strongman]
3) 2 confirmed town + (Garmr/Dave/Me) [Garmr has to be Strongman]
4) 2 confirmed town + (Thor/Radja/Me) [Thor has to be Godfather]

We lynch me automatically in 5p since I'm orchestrating this in the first place and couple manipulate protections to give me a favorable LyLo. If we got to the Thor/Garmr/Pistach LyLo, we should probably lynch Pistach first since the thing that would require her to be scum would be a bus gambit, which is pretty ridiculous but not totally ridiculous. This means possible 3p LyLos would be:

Thor/Eventi
Thor/Garmr
Garmr/Dave
Thor/Radja

In order for Thor to get to 3p LyLo, he needs to be a Godfather. He needs to guess which one of Dave/Pistach I am protecting tonight and he needs to kill people in a way that leads to a LyLo with him in it. There is a 37.50% chance of this happening.

In order for Garmr to get to 3p LyLo, he needs to be a Strongman. He needs to guess both of my protections properly when they happen, and he needs me to protect people in a way where he ends up in LyLo. There is a 25% of that happening.

In order for Eventi to get to 3p LyLo, he needs to be a Godfather. He needs me to allow him to make kills to allow him to show up in LyLo. There is a 25% chance of that happening.

In order for Dave/Radja to get to 3p LyLo, they need me to allow him to make the kills he needs to show up in LyLo. There is a 25% chance of that happening.

[Nachomamma8]

If this sounds reasonable to everyone, then plan for today should be.
Lynch Karmic.
Nacho protects one of {Pistach, Dave}
Radja investigates Thor
Dave jails Garmr
Pistach role cops one of {Gummy, Gimlear}, doesn't matter which.

[Nachomamma8]

I actually think Karmic is more likely to be a nightkill than scum after Day 1.

Why would scum nightkill Karmic over a power role?

[Nachomamma8]

Who do you think is the likeliest scum?

[Nachomamma8]

If you disagree very strongly with Garmr/Thor town and are worried they might be Godfather/Strongman, speak up.
Otherwise, we're probably okay.

[Nachomamma8]

That's pretty bad reasoning pista if nacho is really a doctor they could easily shot him yesterday and have free range over who to kill tonight. The only way I don't see them shooting nacho (if he is legit) is the the fact that David jailed them.

This is correct reasoning.

With you protecting the Jailkeep.
Unless we hear something interesting about our rolecop's power, and then we can debate an alternate plan.

Did you see the optimal plan I just laid out?

[Nachomamma8]

If people want to lynch non-Karmic I'm open to that because I could see Gummy being weird but it's important people actually understand what I just did on the last page and not ignore it completely.

[Nachomamma8]

You makes the same presumptions about her power that I do; if her power is "detects active abilities", the cop + rolecop investigation isn't actually a 100% clear.

[Nachomamma8]

Yes, but I indicated that in my discussion, and it also only increases the value of you being on the Jailkeeper if he does clarify that is how his power works.

How so?

[Nachomamma8]

Oh sorry, a bit slow and hungover at the moment. I'm happy to protect Dave if Pistach clarifies that's how her power works.

If she does work like a normal rolecop though, I don't see why we can't play optimally.

[Nachomamma8]

Which is why I want everyone confirmed

Fun fact: the only way we can get confirmation on every player is by lynching.

[Nachomamma8]

I don't care what we do.

Thor is correct we can no lynch. It's an autowin.
We can also lynch and it's an autowin.
We can have the investigators target the same person and it's *pretty much* an autowin.
We can have the investigators target different people and it's an autowin.

The only reason I have to advocate my plan over others is I spent a lot of time on it, it's cool, and I don't want to no lynch because that seems like it's unnecessarily delaying the game, but there's no optimal play or whatever advantage, was just being stubborn because I did spend a lot of time formulating it and running through different scenarios and then was sad when it was ignored.

[Nachomamma8]

But it's the journey that matters, not the destination.
And the journey was a joy.

[Nachomamma8]

No killing when no killing would be a losing move is pretty stupid.

[Nachomamma8]

VOTE: KarmicGuide

[Nachomamma8]

Pistach targets Eventi.
Radja investigates Gimlear/Gummy/Garmr.
Dave jails Karmic if Karmic lives, one of Gimlear/Gummy/Garmr if he dies.

[Nachomamma8]

Meaning if we no lynch we get confirmation on Karmic and Eventi!
If we don't no lynch we get confirmation on Karmic, Eventi, and one of Gimlear/Gummy/Garmr!

[Nachomamma8]

My only complaint is speed.

We can force the win with lynches. Why not force the win with lynches when it's faster?

[Nachomamma8]

I am less confident in the forced win via lynches than you are - if scum keep no killing than town will auto win, so the mod can speed that up for us if he wants to, but that's the punishment for scum.
My method is strictly superior if they keep failing to kill.
I don't think my method is any worse (and would argue it is better) if they do start killing compared to your method with lynching.
So I just don't see a need to bother with the lynching for the sake of 'speed'.

I ran through all possible scenarios that could occur if we lynched Karmic today; whether I protect Dave or Pistach tonight, we can lynch everyone except for a jailkeeper clear if we have to.

Scum no killing last night (if it was a no kill), lost them the game. There is no route to victory for scum if we lynch or no lynch, and I would rather end the game here instead of no lynching for no reason.

[Nachomamma8]

Also why isn't Bella a viable target for the cop to look at?

Bella has been targeted by Radja and you. The only way Radja could get an innocent on her is if she was a Godfather and the only way you could get Vanilla on her is Goon. She cannot be a Goon and a Godfather at the same time, thus is confirmed town.

[Nachomamma8]

Sooo, intent to hammer?

==============[]

[Nachomamma8]

Sorry that was mean but seriously we were just talking about all the benefits and cons in a lynch and no lynch and everyone admitted that a no lynch was the best option with way better results and no down sides other than the long weight if karmic is scum but the people who want to lynch didn't want to drag this out if he is.

This didn't happen!

[Nachomamma8]

if we lynch him and his town we just basically lost one town for nothing.

This isn't true!

[Nachomamma8]

this is such a lovely feeling

[Nachomamma8]

i have waited so long just for this moment

[Nachomamma8]

NEW Night Plan with Karmic Lynch
Pistach targets Eventi.
Radja investigates Gimlear/Garmr.
Dave jails Gummy
Nacho docs Dave.

This plan is good, aside from the part where I protect dave.
So, I'll be flipping a coin between protecting Pistach and protecting Dave like my original plan had me doing unless anyone not named Thor/Garmr has a complaint

[Nachomamma8]

Just follow the plan!

[Nachomamma8]

Don't you see Thor nacho is the last scum

If I were the last scum, I'd still be a bad jail. You realize that, right?

[Nachomamma8]

I like this plan!

[Nachomamma8]

you know i could hypothetically submit a no protect and we'd still be a OK

[Nachomamma8]

it would be entertaining and i think it would make garmr mad

[Nachomamma8]

not admirable reasons?

[Nachomamma8]

Why aren't you agreeing to the plan?

[Nachomamma8]

Dave is jailing Gummy.

[Nachomamma8]

Why aren't you agreeing to the plan?

Because I don't trust y'all.

Thor and I are not scum together.
We have both laid out very clearly a plan that leads to town winning and am in agreement that the plan leads to town winning. Neither of us, if we are scum, are able to win if the plan is followed unless there is a strongman which, considering the whole 2 nights without kills thing, is supremely unlikely.
If you have disagreements with it, talk about

why

: if you don't know why, then don't risk the town's chances of winning on general distrust when deviating from the plan decreases chances of winning even if you're right.

[Nachomamma8]

In order to be perfectly clear, I am 100% protecting Dave tonight. I was WIFOMing about not protecting Dave in order to bait a shot there; while yes, it is completely and wholly unnecessary because we have the game wrapped up, I thought it would be fun to complain about Garmr and see if scum would be baited into believing that I was withholding my protection or protecting Pistach simply to spite him.

[Nachomamma8]

I'll shoot Garmr too.

[Nachomamma8]

NEW NEW Night Plan with Karmic Lynch

Pistach targets Eventi.
Radja investigates Gimlear
Dave jails Gummy
Nacho docs Dave.
Scum kills Garmr

just to remind everyone what the fuck is up

[Nachomamma8]

FOLLOW THE PLAN

[Nachomamma8]

or i won't submit a protect
i think?

[Nachomamma8]

damnnnnn

[Nachomamma8]

scum pt?

[Nachomamma8]

This game. Seriously.

i think the endgame was my favorite